NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS INC (EYE) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:EYE - Nasdaq - US63845R1077 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 2 out of 10 to EYE. EYE was compared to 120 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. There are concerns on the financial health of EYE while its profitability can be described as average. EYE has a expensive valuation and it also scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
EYE had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year EYE had a positive cash flow from operations.
EYE had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
EYE had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of -0.79%, EYE is in line with its industry, outperforming 41.88% of the companies in the same industry.
EYE has a Return On Equity of -1.89%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: EYE outperforms 49.57% of its industry peers.
EYE's Return On Invested Capital of 1.45% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. EYE outperforms 41.03% of its industry peers.
EYE had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 3.43%. This is significantly below the industry average of 12.30%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.79% | ||
| ROE | -1.89% | ||
| ROIC | 1.45% |
ROA(3y)1.46%
ROA(5y)1.51%
ROE(3y)3.52%
ROE(5y)3.76%
ROIC(3y)3.43%
ROIC(5y)3.55%
1.3 Margins
The Operating Margin of EYE (1.76%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
EYE's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With an excellent Gross Margin value of 56.35%, EYE belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 85.47% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of EYE has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 1.76% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 56.35% |
OM growth 3Y-34.62%
OM growth 5Y-12.59%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.24%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), EYE is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, EYE has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, EYE has about the same amount of shares outstanding.
Compared to 1 year ago, EYE has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
EYE has an Altman-Z score of 1.55. This is a bad value and indicates that EYE is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.55, EYE is not doing good in the industry: 68.38% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
EYE has a debt to FCF ratio of 13.18. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as EYE would need 13.18 years to pay back of all of its debts.
EYE has a Debt to FCF ratio (13.18) which is in line with its industry peers.
EYE has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.30. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
The Debt to Equity ratio of EYE (0.30) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.18 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.55 |
ROIC/WACC0.17
WACC8.6%
2.3 Liquidity
EYE has a Current Ratio of 0.57. This is a bad value and indicates that EYE is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.57, EYE is doing worse than 94.02% of the companies in the same industry.
EYE has a Quick Ratio of 0.57. This is a bad value and indicates that EYE is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
EYE has a worse Quick ratio (0.37) than 60.68% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.57 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.37 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 3.64% over the past year.
EYE shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -2.43% yearly.
EYE shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -9.41%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 6.71% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)3.64%
EPS 3Y-10.82%
EPS 5Y-2.43%
EPS Q2Q%-20%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-9.41%
Revenue growth 3Y7.5%
Revenue growth 5Y6.71%
Sales Q2Q%-15.19%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 0.23% on average over the next years.
Based on estimates for the next years, EYE will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -2.44% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-14.5%
EPS Next 2Y-6.23%
EPS Next 3Y0.23%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-13.36%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.6%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.44%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
EYE is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 20.53.
EYE's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. EYE is cheaper than 67.52% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 29.63, EYE is valued a bit cheaper.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.82 indicates a rather expensive valuation of EYE.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of EYE is on the same level as its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.68, EYE is valued at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20.53 | ||
| Fwd PE | 21.82 |
4.2 Price Multiples
EYE's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as EYE.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 34.33 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.54 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-6.23%
EPS Next 3Y0.23%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
EYE does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
11.7
-0.67 (-5.42%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners109.49%
Inst Owner Change1.34%
Ins Owners1.87%
Ins Owner Change0.39%
Market Cap921.38M
Analysts72
Price Target13.77 (17.69%)
Short Float %6.43%
Short Ratio3.74
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)76.25%
Min EPS beat(2)68.96%
Max EPS beat(2)83.55%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)62.37%
Min EPS beat(4)18.78%
Max EPS beat(4)83.55%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)17.05%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)99.89%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)102.94%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.13%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.98%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.16%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.86%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.32%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.77%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.56%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.73%
PT rev (1m)-1.46%
PT rev (3m)-1.46%
EPS NQ rev (1m)38.63%
EPS NQ rev (3m)32.76%
EPS NY rev (1m)5.92%
EPS NY rev (3m)6.91%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.17%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.27%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.05%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20.53 | ||
| Fwd PE | 21.82 | ||
| P/S | 0.49 | ||
| P/FCF | 34.33 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.48 | ||
| P/B | 1.1 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.54 |
EPS(TTM)0.57
EY4.87%
EPS(NY)0.54
Fwd EY4.58%
FCF(TTM)0.34
FCFY2.91%
OCF(TTM)1.56
OCFY13.36%
SpS24.03
BVpS10.67
TBVpS-1.61
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.79% | ||
| ROE | -1.89% | ||
| ROCE | 2.09% | ||
| ROIC | 1.45% | ||
| ROICexc | 1.53% | ||
| ROICexgc | 4.23% | ||
| OM | 1.76% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 56.35% | ||
| FCFM | 1.42% |
ROA(3y)1.46%
ROA(5y)1.51%
ROE(3y)3.52%
ROE(5y)3.76%
ROIC(3y)3.43%
ROIC(5y)3.55%
ROICexc(3y)3.98%
ROICexc(5y)4.09%
ROICexgc(3y)10.83%
ROICexgc(5y)11.27%
ROCE(3y)4.96%
ROCE(5y)5.13%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-32.88%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-17.51%
ROICexc growth 3Y-29.63%
ROICexc growth 5Y-9.05%
OM growth 3Y-34.62%
OM growth 5Y-12.59%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.24%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.94
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.18 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.94 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 98.97% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 5.09% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.58 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 94.23% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.57 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.37 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.55 |
F-Score7
WACC8.6%
ROIC/WACC0.17
Cap/Depr(3y)108.34%
Cap/Depr(5y)105.01%
Cap/Sales(3y)5.22%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.2%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)3.64%
EPS 3Y-10.82%
EPS 5Y-2.43%
EPS Q2Q%-20%
EPS Next Y-14.5%
EPS Next 2Y-6.23%
EPS Next 3Y0.23%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-9.41%
Revenue growth 3Y7.5%
Revenue growth 5Y6.71%
Sales Q2Q%-15.19%
Revenue Next Year-13.36%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.6%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.44%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-14.85%
EBIT growth 3Y-29.72%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.73%
EBIT Next Year150.49%
EBIT Next 3Y40.28%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y13.25%
FCF growth 3Y-28.32%
FCF growth 5Y94.37%
OCF growth 1Y-15.92%
OCF growth 3Y-9.7%
OCF growth 5Y10.17%