NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS INC (EYE) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:EYE - Nasdaq - US63845R1077 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to EYE. EYE was compared to 121 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. While EYE is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. While showing a medium growth rate, EYE is valued expensive at the moment.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year EYE was profitable.
In the past year EYE had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: EYE reported negative net income in multiple years.
In the past 5 years EYE always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
EYE has a Return On Assets (-1.29%) which is in line with its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of -3.11%, EYE is in line with its industry, outperforming 48.76% of the companies in the same industry.
EYE has a Return On Invested Capital of 2.04%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: EYE outperforms 46.28% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for EYE is significantly below the industry average of 13.07%.
The 3 year average ROIC (1.97%) for EYE is below the current ROIC(2.04%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -1.29% | ||
| ROE | -3.11% | ||
| ROIC | 2.04% |
ROA(3y)-0.87%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)-2.25%
ROE(5y)2.22%
ROIC(3y)1.97%
ROIC(5y)3.59%
1.3 Margins
With a Operating Margin value of 2.16%, EYE perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 51.24% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of EYE has declined.
The Gross Margin of EYE (58.20%) is better than 86.78% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of EYE has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 2.16% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 58.2% |
OM growth 3Y-36.53%
OM growth 5Y-14.44%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.94%
GM growth 5Y1.77%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so EYE is destroying value.
EYE has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for EYE has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
EYE has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 1.96 indicates that EYE is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of EYE (1.96) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
EYE has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.49. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as EYE would need 7.49 years to pay back of all of its debts.
EYE's Debt to FCF ratio of 7.49 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. EYE outperforms 60.33% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.29 indicates that EYE is not too dependend on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.29, EYE is in line with its industry, outperforming 59.50% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.29 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.49 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.96 |
ROIC/WACC0.23
WACC8.97%
2.3 Liquidity
EYE has a Current Ratio of 0.54. This is a bad value and indicates that EYE is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
EYE has a Current ratio of 0.54. This is amonst the worse of the industry: EYE underperforms 91.74% of its industry peers.
EYE has a Quick Ratio of 0.54. This is a bad value and indicates that EYE is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
EYE has a Quick ratio of 0.35. This is in the lower half of the industry: EYE underperforms 64.46% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.35 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for EYE have decreased by -8.06% in the last year.
EYE shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -7.68% yearly.
The Revenue has decreased by -9.58% in the past year.
EYE shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 1.12% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-8.06%
EPS 3Y-27.94%
EPS 5Y-7.68%
EPS Q2Q%6.25%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-9.58%
Revenue growth 3Y-4.29%
Revenue growth 5Y1.12%
Sales Q2Q%-5.94%
3.2 Future
EYE is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 15.87% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, EYE will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 4.80% on average per year.
EPS Next Y18%
EPS Next 2Y19.2%
EPS Next 3Y15.87%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year5.44%
Revenue Next 2Y4.2%
Revenue Next 3Y4.8%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
EYE is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 40.37.
EYE's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
EYE is valuated rather expensively when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.15, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 29.44 indicates a quite expensive valuation of EYE.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of EYE is on the same level as its industry peers.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of EYE to the average of the S&P500 Index (21.60), we can say EYE is valued slightly more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 40.37 | ||
| Fwd PE | 29.44 |
4.2 Price Multiples
EYE's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of EYE is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 39.38 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 16.11 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates EYE does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
EYE's earnings are expected to grow with 15.87% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)2.24
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y19.2%
EPS Next 3Y15.87%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for EYE!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
23.01
-0.16 (-0.69%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners109.16%
Inst Owner Change5.6%
Ins Owners2.19%
Ins Owner Change11.07%
Market Cap1.82B
Analysts78.67
Price Target20.09 (-12.69%)
Short Float %6%
Short Ratio1.72
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)11.11%
Min EPS beat(2)9.52%
Max EPS beat(2)12.69%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)43.68%
Min EPS beat(4)9.52%
Max EPS beat(4)83.55%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)45.64%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)33.07%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)86.41%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.31%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.41%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.5%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.13%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.41%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.71%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.58%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.4%
PT rev (1m)37.28%
PT rev (3m)37.28%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)18.04%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.43%
EPS NY rev (3m)11.88%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.52%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.15%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.35%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 40.37 | ||
| Fwd PE | 29.44 | ||
| P/S | 0.98 | ||
| P/FCF | 39.38 | ||
| P/OCF | 12.82 | ||
| P/B | 2.18 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 16.11 |
EPS(TTM)0.57
EY2.48%
EPS(NY)0.78
Fwd EY3.4%
FCF(TTM)0.58
FCFY2.54%
OCF(TTM)1.8
OCFY7.8%
SpS23.41
BVpS10.58
TBVpS-1.4
PEG (NY)2.24
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -1.29% | ||
| ROE | -3.11% | ||
| ROCE | 2.59% | ||
| ROIC | 2.04% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.16% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.12% | ||
| OM | 2.16% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 58.2% | ||
| FCFM | 2.5% |
ROA(3y)-0.87%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)-2.25%
ROE(5y)2.22%
ROIC(3y)1.97%
ROIC(5y)3.59%
ROICexc(3y)2.16%
ROICexc(5y)4.2%
ROICexgc(3y)5.73%
ROICexgc(5y)11.7%
ROCE(3y)2.5%
ROCE(5y)4.55%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-36.81%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-9.61%
ROICexc growth 3Y-36.88%
ROICexc growth 5Y-10.66%
OM growth 3Y-36.53%
OM growth 5Y-14.44%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.94%
GM growth 5Y1.77%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.92
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.29 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.49 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.88 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 105.96% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 5.17% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.25 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 108.96% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.35 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.96 |
F-Score6
WACC8.97%
ROIC/WACC0.23
Cap/Depr(3y)109.9%
Cap/Depr(5y)102.38%
Cap/Sales(3y)5.81%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.3%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-8.06%
EPS 3Y-27.94%
EPS 5Y-7.68%
EPS Q2Q%6.25%
EPS Next Y18%
EPS Next 2Y19.2%
EPS Next 3Y15.87%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-9.58%
Revenue growth 3Y-4.29%
Revenue growth 5Y1.12%
Sales Q2Q%-5.94%
Revenue Next Year5.44%
Revenue Next 2Y4.2%
Revenue Next 3Y4.8%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y12.91%
EBIT growth 3Y-39.25%
EBIT growth 5Y-13.48%
EBIT Next Year194.24%
EBIT Next 3Y46.99%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y39.53%
FCF growth 3Y-38.43%
FCF growth 5Y-9.78%
OCF growth 1Y-2.94%
OCF growth 3Y-19.78%
OCF growth 5Y-4.14%