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ETSY INC (ETSY) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NASDAQ:ETSY - Nasdaq - US29786A1060 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

54.4  -1.06 (-1.91%)

After market: 54.25 -0.15 (-0.28%)

Fundamental Rating

6

ETSY gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 32 industry peers in the Broadline Retail industry. ETSY gets an excellent profitability rating and is at the same time showing great financial health properties. ETSY has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate. These ratings could make ETSY a good candidate for quality investing.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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8

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year ETSY was profitable.
ETSY had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
ETSY had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years ETSY had a positive operating cash flow.
ETSY Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFETSY Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 200M -200M 400M -400M 600M -600M

1.2 Ratios

The Return On Assets of ETSY (10.51%) is better than 87.10% of its industry peers.
ETSY has a better Return On Invested Capital (15.35%) than 83.87% of its industry peers.
ETSY had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 13.89%. This is above the industry average of 11.22%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (15.35%) for ETSY is above the 3 year average (13.89%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 10.51%
ROE N/A
ROIC 15.35%
ROA(3y)-0.67%
ROA(5y)3.74%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)13.89%
ROIC(5y)12.81%
ETSY Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICETSY Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 50 -50 100

1.3 Margins

ETSY has a better Profit Margin (9.17%) than 83.87% of its industry peers.
ETSY's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With an excellent Operating Margin value of 13.12%, ETSY belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 90.32% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ETSY has grown nicely.
ETSY's Gross Margin of 71.16% is amongst the best of the industry. ETSY outperforms 87.10% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ETSY has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 13.12%
PM (TTM) 9.17%
GM 71.16%
OM growth 3Y-17.85%
OM growth 5Y1.97%
PM growth 3Y-17.92%
PM growth 5Y-2.71%
GM growth 3Y-1.4%
GM growth 5Y0.48%
ETSY Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsETSY Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20 -20 40 60

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7

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

ETSY has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
ETSY has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, ETSY has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for ETSY has been reduced compared to a year ago.
ETSY Yearly Shares OutstandingETSY Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20M 40M 60M 80M 100M
ETSY Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsETSY Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1B 2B 3B

2.2 Solvency

An Altman-Z score of 2.29 indicates that ETSY is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
ETSY has a Altman-Z score (2.29) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of ETSY is 3.48, which is a good value as it means it would take ETSY, 3.48 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 3.48, ETSY is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 64.52% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity N/A
Debt/FCF 3.48
Altman-Z 2.29
ROIC/WACC2.05
WACC7.49%
ETSY Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFETSY Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 500M -500M 1B 1.5B 2B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 2.39 indicates that ETSY has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
ETSY's Current ratio of 2.39 is amongst the best of the industry. ETSY outperforms 87.10% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 2.39 indicates that ETSY has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of ETSY (2.39) is better than 93.55% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 2.39
Quick Ratio 2.39
ETSY Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesETSY Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 500M 1B 1.5B

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6

3. Growth

3.1 Past

ETSY shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -18.33%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 30.26% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 3.14% in the past year.
The Revenue has been growing by 35.41% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth!
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.33%
EPS 3Y-5.78%
EPS 5Y30.26%
EPS Q2Q%-31.82%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.14%
Revenue growth 3Y16.78%
Revenue growth 5Y35.41%
Sales Q2Q%4.1%

3.2 Future

ETSY is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 24.84% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 5.40% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y1.2%
EPS Next 2Y8.2%
EPS Next 3Y9.51%
EPS Next 5Y24.84%
Revenue Next Year3.16%
Revenue Next 2Y2.83%
Revenue Next 3Y3.61%
Revenue Next 5Y5.4%

3.3 Evolution

When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
ETSY Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesETSY Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B
ETSY Yearly EPS VS EstimatesETSY Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 0 5 -5 10

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4

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

With a Price/Earnings ratio of 27.76, ETSY can be considered very expensive at the moment.
ETSY's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 28.12, ETSY is valued at the same level.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 20.65, the valuation of ETSY can be described as rather expensive.
ETSY's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
ETSY's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 94.77.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 27.76
Fwd PE 20.65
ETSY Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsETSY Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60 80

4.2 Price Multiples

Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of ETSY is on the same level as its industry peers.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, ETSY is valued cheaply inside the industry as 80.65% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 8.91
EV/EBITDA 15.59
ETSY Per share dataETSY EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 10 -10 20

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates ETSY does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
The excellent profitability rating of ETSY may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)23.1
PEG (5Y)0.92
EPS Next 2Y8.2%
EPS Next 3Y9.51%

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0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

ETSY does not give a dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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ETSY INC

NASDAQ:ETSY (2/7/2025, 8:26:40 PM)

After market: 54.25 -0.15 (-0.28%)

54.4

-1.06 (-1.91%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustryBroadline Retail
Earnings (Last)10-30 2024-10-30/amc
Earnings (Next)02-20 2025-02-20/amc
Inst Owners105.19%
Inst Owner Change1.01%
Ins Owners0.93%
Ins Owner Change0.14%
Market Cap6.12B
Analysts66
Price Target63.17 (16.12%)
Short Float %16.99%
Short Ratio5.52
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-13.33%
Min EPS beat(2)-16.48%
Max EPS beat(2)-10.19%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-12.91%
Min EPS beat(4)-21.6%
Max EPS beat(4)-3.38%
EPS beat(8)2
Avg EPS beat(8)-4.01%
EPS beat(12)4
Avg EPS beat(12)-173.79%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)-123.54%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.21%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.47%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.88%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.46%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.02%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.88%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.17%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.76%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.74%
PT rev (1m)1.08%
PT rev (3m)-4.86%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.35%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-1.69%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.14%
EPS NY rev (3m)-3.75%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.06%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.56%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.24%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 27.76
Fwd PE 20.65
P/S 2.19
P/FCF 8.91
P/OCF 8.35
P/B N/A
P/tB N/A
EV/EBITDA 15.59
EPS(TTM)1.96
EY3.6%
EPS(NY)2.63
Fwd EY4.84%
FCF(TTM)6.11
FCFY11.23%
OCF(TTM)6.51
OCFY11.97%
SpS24.88
BVpS-5.55
TBVpS-10.73
PEG (NY)23.1
PEG (5Y)0.92
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 10.51%
ROE N/A
ROCE 19.43%
ROIC 15.35%
ROICexc 34.35%
ROICexgc 110.81%
OM 13.12%
PM (TTM) 9.17%
GM 71.16%
FCFM 24.55%
ROA(3y)-0.67%
ROA(5y)3.74%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)13.89%
ROIC(5y)12.81%
ROICexc(3y)29.7%
ROICexc(5y)44.31%
ROICexgc(3y)155.78%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)17.58%
ROCE(5y)16.21%
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y15.45%
ROICexc growth 3Y-33.01%
ROICexc growth 5Y0.16%
OM growth 3Y-17.85%
OM growth 5Y1.97%
PM growth 3Y-17.92%
PM growth 5Y-2.71%
GM growth 3Y-1.4%
GM growth 5Y0.48%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover1.15
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity N/A
Debt/FCF 3.48
Debt/EBITDA 5.05
Cap/Depr 43.6%
Cap/Sales 1.63%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 155.28%
Profit Quality 267.68%
Current Ratio 2.39
Quick Ratio 2.39
Altman-Z 2.29
F-Score6
WACC7.49%
ROIC/WACC2.05
Cap/Depr(3y)40.89%
Cap/Depr(5y)34.45%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.4%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.35%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.33%
EPS 3Y-5.78%
EPS 5Y30.26%
EPS Q2Q%-31.82%
EPS Next Y1.2%
EPS Next 2Y8.2%
EPS Next 3Y9.51%
EPS Next 5Y24.84%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.14%
Revenue growth 3Y16.78%
Revenue growth 5Y35.41%
Sales Q2Q%4.1%
Revenue Next Year3.16%
Revenue Next 2Y2.83%
Revenue Next 3Y3.61%
Revenue Next 5Y5.4%
EBIT growth 1Y-1.26%
EBIT growth 3Y-4.06%
EBIT growth 5Y38.08%
EBIT Next Year156.42%
EBIT Next 3Y40.57%
EBIT Next 5Y27.16%
FCF growth 1Y7.39%
FCF growth 3Y-0.27%
FCF growth 5Y36.05%
OCF growth 1Y7.36%
OCF growth 3Y1.28%
OCF growth 5Y28.82%