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EMPIRE STATE REALTY TRUST-A (ESRT) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:ESRT - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US2921041065 - REIT

9.73  -0.13 (-1.32%)

Fundamental Rating

4

We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to ESRT. ESRT was compared to 129 industry peers in the Diversified REITs industry. ESRT has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. ESRT has a expensive valuation and it also scores bad on growth.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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4

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year ESRT was profitable.
ESRT had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: ESRT reported negative net income in multiple years.
Each year in the past 5 years ESRT had a positive operating cash flow.
ESRT Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFESRT Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 100M 200M

1.2 Ratios

Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 1.02%, ESRT is in line with its industry, outperforming 56.35% of the companies in the same industry.
With a decent Return On Equity value of 4.34%, ESRT is doing good in the industry, outperforming 66.67% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of ESRT (2.88%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for ESRT is in line with the industry average of 3.11%.
The 3 year average ROIC (2.34%) for ESRT is below the current ROIC(2.88%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.02%
ROE 4.34%
ROIC 2.88%
ROA(3y)0.6%
ROA(5y)0.53%
ROE(3y)2.5%
ROE(5y)1.97%
ROIC(3y)2.34%
ROIC(5y)2.31%
ESRT Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICESRT Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2 4 6

1.3 Margins

Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 5.95%, ESRT is in line with its industry, outperforming 53.97% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ESRT has declined.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 20.51%, ESRT is in line with its industry, outperforming 46.03% of the companies in the same industry.
ESRT's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
ESRT has a Gross Margin of 55.48%. This is in the lower half of the industry: ESRT underperforms 74.60% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ESRT has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 20.51%
PM (TTM) 5.95%
GM 55.48%
OM growth 3Y23.03%
OM growth 5Y-5.34%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-5.86%
GM growth 3Y1.03%
GM growth 5Y-0.77%
ESRT Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsESRT Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20 40

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4

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), ESRT is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, ESRT has more shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, ESRT has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for ESRT has been reduced compared to a year ago.
ESRT Yearly Shares OutstandingESRT Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 50M 100M 150M
ESRT Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsESRT Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1B 2B 3B 4B

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.73, we must say that ESRT is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 0.73, ESRT perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 59.52% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.35 is on the high side and indicates that ESRT has dependencies on debt financing.
ESRT's Debt to Equity ratio of 2.35 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. ESRT is outperformed by 80.16% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.35
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 0.73
ROIC/WACC0.5
WACC5.8%
ESRT Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFESRT Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 500M 1B 1.5B 2B

2.3 Liquidity

ESRT has a Current Ratio of 5.76. This indicates that ESRT is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of ESRT (5.76) is better than 93.65% of its industry peers.
ESRT has a Quick Ratio of 5.76. This indicates that ESRT is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
ESRT has a better Quick ratio (5.76) than 93.65% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 5.76
Quick Ratio 5.76
ESRT Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesESRT Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 200M 400M 600M 800M

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3

3. Growth

3.1 Past

ESRT shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -28.09%.
The Earnings Per Share has been decreasing by -3.44% on average over the past years.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.85% in the past year.
ESRT shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 0.22% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-28.09%
EPS 3Y117.03%
EPS 5Y-3.44%
EPS Q2Q%-68%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.85%
Revenue growth 3Y6.68%
Revenue growth 5Y0.22%
Sales Q2Q%31.78%

3.2 Future

ESRT is expected to show a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will decrease by -43.93% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 1.38% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-86.14%
EPS Next 2Y-64.29%
EPS Next 3Y-59.48%
EPS Next 5Y-43.93%
Revenue Next Year3.38%
Revenue Next 2Y2.61%
Revenue Next 3Y1.81%
Revenue Next 5Y1.38%

3.3 Evolution

When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
ESRT Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesESRT Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 200M 400M 600M 800M
ESRT Yearly EPS VS EstimatesESRT Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

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3

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 15.20, the valuation of ESRT can be described as correct.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, ESRT is valued cheaply inside the industry as 88.10% of the companies are valued more expensively.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of ESRT to the average of the S&P500 Index (28.29), we can say ESRT is valued slightly cheaper.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 82.95, which means the current valuation is very expensive for ESRT.
ESRT's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
ESRT's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather expensive valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 24.44.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 15.2
Fwd PE 82.95
ESRT Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsESRT Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60 80

4.2 Price Multiples

ESRT's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. ESRT is cheaper than 80.95% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 10.64
ESRT Per share dataESRT EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 2 4 6

4.3 Compensation for Growth

ESRT's earnings are expected to decrease with -59.48% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-64.29%
EPS Next 3Y-59.48%

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2

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

ESRT has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.46%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
With a Dividend Yield of 1.46, ESRT pays less dividend than the industry average, which is at 18.51. 90.48% of the companies listed in the same industry pay a better dividend than ESRT!
Compared to the average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.28, ESRT is paying slightly less dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.46%

5.2 History

The dividend of ESRT decreases each year by -17.22%.
ESRT has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
The dividend of ESRT decreased in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-17.22%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
ESRT Yearly Dividends per shareESRT Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

5.3 Sustainability

60.18% of the earnings are spent on dividend by ESRT. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The Dividend Rate of ESRT has been decling, while earnings will also be declining. This means the current dividend is most likely not sustainable.
DP60.18%
EPS Next 2Y-64.29%
EPS Next 3Y-59.48%
ESRT Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendESRT Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20M -20M 40M 60M
ESRT Dividend Payout.ESRT Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.ESRT Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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EMPIRE STATE REALTY TRUST-A

NYSE:ESRT (1/22/2025, 9:43:46 AM)

9.73

-0.13 (-1.32%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorReal Estate
GICS IndustryGroupEquity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
GICS IndustryDiversified REITs
Earnings (Last)10-21 2024-10-21/amc
Earnings (Next)02-18 2025-02-18/amc
Inst Owners89.06%
Inst Owner Change0.03%
Ins Owners0.05%
Ins Owner Change0.29%
Market Cap1.62B
Analysts50.91
Price Target11.99 (23.23%)
Short Float %2.45%
Short Ratio3.69
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.46%
Yearly Dividend0.17
Dividend Growth(5Y)-17.22%
DP60.18%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)100.98%
Min EPS beat(2)56.86%
Max EPS beat(2)145.1%
EPS beat(4)N/A
Avg EPS beat(4)N/A
Min EPS beat(4)N/A
Max EPS beat(4)N/A
EPS beat(8)N/A
Avg EPS beat(8)N/A
EPS beat(12)N/A
Avg EPS beat(12)N/A
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.43%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.89%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.03%
Revenue beat(4)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(4)N/A
Min Revenue beat(4)N/A
Max Revenue beat(4)N/A
Revenue beat(8)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(8)N/A
Revenue beat(12)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(12)N/A
Revenue beat(16)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(16)N/A
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)1.29%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.04%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.55%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 15.2
Fwd PE 82.95
P/S 2.13
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 6.56
P/B 1.55
P/tB 6.81
EV/EBITDA 10.64
EPS(TTM)0.64
EY6.58%
EPS(NY)0.12
Fwd EY1.21%
FCF(TTM)-0.49
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)1.48
OCFY15.24%
SpS4.58
BVpS6.27
TBVpS1.43
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.02%
ROE 4.34%
ROCE 3.64%
ROIC 2.88%
ROICexc 3.19%
ROICexgc 4.03%
OM 20.51%
PM (TTM) 5.95%
GM 55.48%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)0.6%
ROA(5y)0.53%
ROE(3y)2.5%
ROE(5y)1.97%
ROIC(3y)2.34%
ROIC(5y)2.31%
ROICexc(3y)2.55%
ROICexc(5y)2.52%
ROICexgc(3y)3.26%
ROICexgc(5y)3.27%
ROCE(3y)2.96%
ROCE(5y)2.93%
ROICexcg growth 3Y27.15%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-4.74%
ROICexc growth 3Y28.36%
ROICexc growth 5Y-4.63%
OM growth 3Y23.03%
OM growth 5Y-5.34%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-5.86%
GM growth 3Y1.03%
GM growth 5Y-0.77%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.17
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.35
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 7.11
Cap/Depr 174.17%
Cap/Sales 43.15%
Interest Coverage 1.79
Cash Conversion 71.57%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 5.76
Quick Ratio 5.76
Altman-Z 0.73
F-Score6
WACC5.8%
ROIC/WACC0.5
Cap/Depr(3y)101.47%
Cap/Depr(5y)103.43%
Cap/Sales(3y)29.94%
Cap/Sales(5y)29.51%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-28.09%
EPS 3Y117.03%
EPS 5Y-3.44%
EPS Q2Q%-68%
EPS Next Y-86.14%
EPS Next 2Y-64.29%
EPS Next 3Y-59.48%
EPS Next 5Y-43.93%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.85%
Revenue growth 3Y6.68%
Revenue growth 5Y0.22%
Sales Q2Q%31.78%
Revenue Next Year3.38%
Revenue Next 2Y2.61%
Revenue Next 3Y1.81%
Revenue Next 5Y1.38%
EBIT growth 1Y7.96%
EBIT growth 3Y31.24%
EBIT growth 5Y-5.13%
EBIT Next Year133%
EBIT Next 3Y35.08%
EBIT Next 5Y19.75%
FCF growth 1Y-612.57%
FCF growth 3Y19.12%
FCF growth 5Y12.97%
OCF growth 1Y12.69%
OCF growth 3Y8.44%
OCF growth 5Y-3.58%