EVOLUTION PETROLEUM CORP (EPM) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSEARCA:EPM - NYSE Arca - US30049A1079 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to EPM. EPM was compared to 209 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. EPM scores quite bad on profitability, while its financial health is fine. Not spectacular, but in line with the averages. EPM is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate. EPM also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year EPM was profitable.
In the past year EPM had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years EPM 4 years were profitable.
EPM had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
EPM has a worse Return On Assets (0.99%) than 67.62% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Equity value of 2.09%, EPM is not doing good in the industry: 67.14% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
EPM's Return On Invested Capital of 3.03% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. EPM is outperformed by 70.48% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for EPM is significantly below the industry average of 27.48%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (3.03%) for EPM is well below the 3 year average (20.97%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that EPM had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.99% | ||
| ROE | 2.09% | ||
| ROIC | 3.03% |
ROA(3y)17.31%
ROA(5y)7.39%
ROE(3y)28.79%
ROE(5y)12.86%
ROIC(3y)20.97%
ROIC(5y)14.37%
1.3 Margins
EPM's Profit Margin of 1.84% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. EPM is outperformed by 65.24% of its industry peers.
EPM's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
EPM has a Operating Margin of 6.64%. This is in the lower half of the industry: EPM underperforms 69.05% of its industry peers.
EPM's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
EPM's Gross Margin of 43.75% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. EPM outperforms 48.10% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of EPM has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 6.64% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.84% | ||
| GM | 43.75% |
OM growth 3Y-10.46%
OM growth 5Y-25.75%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-33.42%
GM growth 3Y-3.86%
GM growth 5Y-8.15%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so EPM is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for EPM has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for EPM has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, EPM has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
EPM has an Altman-Z score of 2.22. This is not the best score and indicates that EPM is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
EPM has a Altman-Z score of 2.22. This is in the better half of the industry: EPM outperforms 71.90% of its industry peers.
EPM has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.52. This is a neutral value indicating EPM is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
EPM has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.52) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.52 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.22 |
ROIC/WACC0.35
WACC8.56%
2.3 Liquidity
EPM has a Current Ratio of 1.64. This is a normal value and indicates that EPM is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.64, EPM is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 68.57% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 1.64 indicates that EPM should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
EPM's Quick ratio of 1.64 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. EPM outperforms 71.90% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.64 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.64 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for EPM have decreased strongly by -83.33% in the last year.
The earnings per share for EPM have been decreasing by -22.88% on average. This is quite bad
Looking at the last year, EPM shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -10.60% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing by 14.71% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-83.33%
EPS 3Y6.27%
EPS 5Y-22.88%
EPS Q2Q%-200%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-10.6%
Revenue growth 3Y37.96%
Revenue growth 5Y14.71%
Sales Q2Q%-3.54%
3.2 Future
EPM is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 16.05% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 3.86% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y5.21%
EPS Next 2Y16.05%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-0.53%
Revenue Next 2Y3.86%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 61.25, the valuation of EPM can be described as expensive.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, EPM is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 70.48% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 29.35, EPM is valued quite expensively.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 30.32, which means the current valuation is very expensive for EPM.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, EPM is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 66.19% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of EPM to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.10), we can say EPM is valued slightly more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 61.25 | ||
| Fwd PE | 30.32 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as EPM.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.96 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as EPM's earnings are expected to grow with 16.05% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)11.76
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y16.05%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
EPM has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 9.96%, which is a nice return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 7.12, EPM pays a better dividend. On top of this EPM pays more dividend than 86.67% of the companies listed in the same industry.
EPM's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.33.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 9.96% |
5.2 History
The dividend of EPM has a limited annual growth rate of 3.76%.
EPM has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
EPM has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.76%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
EPM pays out 1011.99% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of EPM is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP1011.99%
EPS Next 2Y16.05%
EPS Next 3YN/A
4.9
+0.08 (+1.66%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners56.21%
Inst Owner Change3.43%
Ins Owners10.09%
Ins Owner Change5.01%
Market Cap167.82M
Analysts80
Price Target7.52 (53.47%)
Short Float %2.86%
Short Ratio4.68
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 9.96% |
Yearly Dividend0.48
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.76%
DP1011.99%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-52.75%
Min EPS beat(2)-154%
Max EPS beat(2)48.51%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-52.49%
Min EPS beat(4)-154%
Max EPS beat(4)48.51%
EPS beat(8)2
Avg EPS beat(8)-33.32%
EPS beat(12)4
Avg EPS beat(12)-23.31%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)-18.1%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-6.64%
Min Revenue beat(2)-11.65%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.63%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-5.7%
Min Revenue beat(4)-11.65%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.86%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.41%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.15%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)11.11%
PT rev (1m)-3.28%
PT rev (3m)-3.28%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0%
EPS NY rev (1m)-47.92%
EPS NY rev (3m)-59.68%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-3.01%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-7.85%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 61.25 | ||
| Fwd PE | 30.32 | ||
| P/S | 1.94 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 6.29 | ||
| P/B | 2.2 | ||
| P/tB | 2.2 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.96 |
EPS(TTM)0.08
EY1.63%
EPS(NY)0.16
Fwd EY3.3%
FCF(TTM)-0.62
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)0.78
OCFY15.9%
SpS2.52
BVpS2.23
TBVpS2.23
PEG (NY)11.76
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.99% | ||
| ROE | 2.09% | ||
| ROCE | 3.99% | ||
| ROIC | 3.03% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.3% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.3% | ||
| OM | 6.64% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.84% | ||
| GM | 43.75% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)17.31%
ROA(5y)7.39%
ROE(3y)28.79%
ROE(5y)12.86%
ROIC(3y)20.97%
ROIC(5y)14.37%
ROICexc(3y)22.81%
ROICexc(5y)15.8%
ROICexgc(3y)22.81%
ROICexgc(5y)15.8%
ROCE(3y)27.6%
ROCE(5y)18.91%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-4.57%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-27.84%
ROICexc growth 3Y-4.57%
ROICexc growth 5Y-27.82%
OM growth 3Y-10.46%
OM growth 5Y-25.75%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-33.42%
GM growth 3Y-3.86%
GM growth 5Y-8.15%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.54
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.52 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.41 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 213.58% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 55.26% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 94.97% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.64 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.64 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.22 |
F-Score4
WACC8.56%
ROIC/WACC0.35
Cap/Depr(3y)325.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)306.62%
Cap/Sales(3y)37.87%
Cap/Sales(5y)41.68%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-83.33%
EPS 3Y6.27%
EPS 5Y-22.88%
EPS Q2Q%-200%
EPS Next Y5.21%
EPS Next 2Y16.05%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-10.6%
Revenue growth 3Y37.96%
Revenue growth 5Y14.71%
Sales Q2Q%-3.54%
Revenue Next Year-0.53%
Revenue Next 2Y3.86%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-73.1%
EBIT growth 3Y23.53%
EBIT growth 5Y-14.83%
EBIT Next Year355.41%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-332.29%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-59.77%
OCF growth 3Y68.72%
OCF growth 5Y-1.13%