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DOLLAR TREE INC (DLTR) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NASDAQ:DLTR - Nasdaq - US2567461080 - Common Stock

71.97  -1.79 (-2.43%)

After market: 72 +0.03 (+0.04%)

Fundamental Rating

4

Overall DLTR gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated DLTR against 41 industry peers in the Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail industry. There are concerns on the financial health of DLTR while its profitability can be described as average. DLTR has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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4

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

DLTR had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year DLTR had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years DLTR 4 years were profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years DLTR had a positive operating cash flow.
DLTR Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFDLTR Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 1B -1B 2B

1.2 Ratios

With a Return On Assets value of -4.71%, DLTR is not doing good in the industry: 75.00% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
DLTR has a worse Return On Equity (-14.44%) than 70.00% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 7.07%, DLTR is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 65.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for DLTR is in line with the industry average of 8.38%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -4.71%
ROE -14.44%
ROIC 7.07%
ROA(3y)2.87%
ROA(5y)3.86%
ROE(3y)7.34%
ROE(5y)10.73%
ROIC(3y)8.1%
ROIC(5y)8.09%
DLTR Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICDLTR Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 20 -20

1.3 Margins

DLTR has a better Operating Margin (5.03%) than 87.50% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of DLTR has declined.
DLTR has a better Gross Margin (30.78%) than 80.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of DLTR has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 5.03%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 30.78%
OM growth 3Y-10.31%
OM growth 5Y-7.43%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-0.04%
GM growth 5Y0.03%
DLTR Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsDLTR Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 10 20 30

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3

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so DLTR is still creating some value.
DLTR has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
DLTR has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for DLTR is higher compared to a year ago.
DLTR Yearly Shares OutstandingDLTR Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 50M 100M 150M 200M
DLTR Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsDLTR Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5B 10B 15B 20B

2.2 Solvency

DLTR has an Altman-Z score of 2.67. This is not the best score and indicates that DLTR is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of DLTR (2.67) is worse than 65.00% of its industry peers.
DLTR has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.98. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as DLTR would need 7.98 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 7.98, DLTR is in line with its industry, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.36 indicates that DLTR is not too dependend on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.36, DLTR perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 55.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.36
Debt/FCF 7.98
Altman-Z 2.67
ROIC/WACC0.88
WACC8.07%
DLTR Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFDLTR Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2B 4B 6B 8B

2.3 Liquidity

DLTR has a Current Ratio of 1.02. This is a normal value and indicates that DLTR is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.02, DLTR is not doing good in the industry: 60.00% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
DLTR has a Quick Ratio of 1.02. This is a bad value and indicates that DLTR is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.17, DLTR is not doing good in the industry: 87.50% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.02
Quick Ratio 0.17
DLTR Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesDLTR Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2B 4B 6B

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4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

DLTR shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has grown by 0.89%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 1.77% on average over the past years.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 5.65% in the past year.
DLTR shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 6.04% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)0.89%
EPS 3Y1.68%
EPS 5Y1.77%
EPS Q2Q%-26.37%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.65%
Revenue growth 3Y6.26%
Revenue growth 5Y6.04%
Sales Q2Q%0.73%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 10.09% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
Based on estimates for the next years, DLTR will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 2.96% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-7.27%
EPS Next 2Y1.79%
EPS Next 3Y5.77%
EPS Next 5Y10.09%
Revenue Next Year0.52%
Revenue Next 2Y2.07%
Revenue Next 3Y2.82%
Revenue Next 5Y2.96%

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
DLTR Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesDLTR Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 10B 20B 30B
DLTR Yearly EPS VS EstimatesDLTR Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 5 10 15

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5

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

With a Price/Earnings ratio of 12.69, DLTR is valued correctly.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of DLTR indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: DLTR is cheaper than 75.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 28.19, DLTR is valued rather cheaply.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.67, the valuation of DLTR can be described as reasonable.
DLTR's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. DLTR is cheaper than 82.50% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of DLTR to the average of the S&P500 Index (24.37), we can say DLTR is valued rather cheaply.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 12.69
Fwd PE 11.67
DLTR Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsDLTR Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

DLTR's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. DLTR is cheaper than 70.00% of the companies in the same industry.
DLTR's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 33.58
EV/EBITDA 7.39
DLTR Per share dataDLTR EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 50 100

4.3 Compensation for Growth

PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)7.17
EPS Next 2Y1.79%
EPS Next 3Y5.77%

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0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

DLTR does not give a dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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DOLLAR TREE INC

NASDAQ:DLTR (1/22/2025, 8:18:09 PM)

After market: 72 +0.03 (+0.04%)

71.97

-1.79 (-2.43%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustryConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Earnings (Last)11-27 2024-11-27/amc
Earnings (Next)N/A N/A
Inst Owners104.58%
Inst Owner Change-0.22%
Ins Owners0.09%
Ins Owner Change0.3%
Market Cap15.48B
Analysts68.57
Price Target85.57 (18.9%)
Short Float %5.11%
Short Ratio2.55
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-19.17%
Min EPS beat(2)-36.9%
Max EPS beat(2)-1.45%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-11.19%
Min EPS beat(4)-36.9%
Max EPS beat(4)-0.61%
EPS beat(8)1
Avg EPS beat(8)-6.06%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)-2%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)1.59%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.67%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.39%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.94%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.68%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.94%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.64%
Revenue beat(12)1
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.63%
Revenue beat(16)1
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.72%
PT rev (1m)2.34%
PT rev (3m)0.62%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0.27%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-9.09%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.01%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.03%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.31%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 12.69
Fwd PE 11.67
P/S 0.5
P/FCF 33.58
P/OCF 5.6
P/B 2.1
P/tB 3.59
EV/EBITDA 7.39
EPS(TTM)5.67
EY7.88%
EPS(NY)6.17
Fwd EY8.57%
FCF(TTM)2.14
FCFY2.98%
OCF(TTM)12.85
OCFY17.85%
SpS144
BVpS34.32
TBVpS20.07
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)7.17
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -4.71%
ROE -14.44%
ROCE 9.37%
ROIC 7.07%
ROICexc 7.32%
ROICexgc 9.01%
OM 5.03%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 30.78%
FCFM 1.49%
ROA(3y)2.87%
ROA(5y)3.86%
ROE(3y)7.34%
ROE(5y)10.73%
ROIC(3y)8.1%
ROIC(5y)8.09%
ROICexc(3y)8.46%
ROICexc(5y)8.52%
ROICexgc(3y)11.49%
ROICexgc(5y)12.01%
ROCE(3y)10.58%
ROCE(5y)10.57%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-12.62%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-17.81%
ROICexc growth 3Y-6.83%
ROICexc growth 5Y-9.66%
OM growth 3Y-10.31%
OM growth 5Y-7.43%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-0.04%
GM growth 5Y0.03%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover1.37
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.36
Debt/FCF 7.98
Debt/EBITDA 1.08
Cap/Depr 249.56%
Cap/Sales 7.44%
Interest Coverage 11.62
Cash Conversion 111.43%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 1.02
Quick Ratio 0.17
Altman-Z 2.67
F-Score6
WACC8.07%
ROIC/WACC0.88
Cap/Depr(3y)185.58%
Cap/Depr(5y)169.65%
Cap/Sales(3y)5.07%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.62%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)0.89%
EPS 3Y1.68%
EPS 5Y1.77%
EPS Q2Q%-26.37%
EPS Next Y-7.27%
EPS Next 2Y1.79%
EPS Next 3Y5.77%
EPS Next 5Y10.09%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.65%
Revenue growth 3Y6.26%
Revenue growth 5Y6.04%
Sales Q2Q%0.73%
Revenue Next Year0.52%
Revenue Next 2Y2.07%
Revenue Next 3Y2.82%
Revenue Next 5Y2.96%
EBIT growth 1Y-8.76%
EBIT growth 3Y-4.7%
EBIT growth 5Y-1.83%
EBIT Next Year46.37%
EBIT Next 3Y20.36%
EBIT Next 5Y16.37%
FCF growth 1Y305.01%
FCF growth 3Y-31.79%
FCF growth 5Y-9.47%
OCF growth 1Y127.25%
OCF growth 3Y-0.39%
OCF growth 5Y8.74%