DOLLAR TREE INC (DLTR) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:DLTR - Nasdaq - US2567461080 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, DLTR scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. DLTR was compared to 40 industry peers in the Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail industry. DLTR has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. DLTR is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
DLTR had positive earnings in the past year.
DLTR had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: DLTR reported negative net income in multiple years.
In the past 5 years DLTR always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of -16.33%, DLTR is doing worse than 87.50% of the companies in the same industry.
DLTR's Return On Equity of -76.49% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. DLTR is outperformed by 85.00% of its industry peers.
DLTR has a Return On Invested Capital of 11.72%. This is amongst the best in the industry. DLTR outperforms 85.00% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for DLTR is in line with the industry average of 8.23%.
The 3 year average ROIC (10.12%) for DLTR is below the current ROIC(11.72%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -16.33% | ||
| ROE | -76.49% | ||
| ROIC | 11.72% |
ROA(3y)-4.59%
ROA(5y)-0.23%
ROE(3y)-23.79%
ROE(5y)-7.15%
ROIC(3y)10.12%
ROIC(5y)9.34%
1.3 Margins
DLTR's Operating Margin of 7.94% is amongst the best of the industry. DLTR outperforms 95.00% of its industry peers.
DLTR's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of DLTR (32.14%) is better than 82.50% of its industry peers.
DLTR's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 7.94% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 32.14% |
OM growth 3Y9.44%
OM growth 5Y6.07%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y6.8%
GM growth 5Y3.73%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so DLTR is still creating some value.
DLTR has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
DLTR has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for DLTR is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
DLTR has an Altman-Z score of 2.54. This is not the best score and indicates that DLTR is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
DLTR has a worse Altman-Z score (2.54) than 70.00% of its industry peers.
DLTR has a debt to FCF ratio of 2.18. This is a good value and a sign of high solvency as DLTR would need 2.18 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of DLTR (2.18) is better than 77.50% of its industry peers.
DLTR has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.62. This is a neutral value indicating DLTR is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.62, DLTR perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Although DLTR does not score too well on debt/equity it has very limited outstanding debt, which is well covered by the FCF. We will not put too much weight on the debt/equity number as it may be because of low equity, which could be a consequence of a share buyback program for instance. This needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.62 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.18 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.54 |
ROIC/WACC1.45
WACC8.08%
2.3 Liquidity
DLTR has a Current Ratio of 1.04. This is a normal value and indicates that DLTR is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
DLTR's Current ratio of 1.04 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. DLTR outperforms 42.50% of its industry peers.
DLTR has a Quick Ratio of 1.04. This is a bad value and indicates that DLTR is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
DLTR has a Quick ratio of 0.72. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: DLTR outperforms 55.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.04 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.72 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
DLTR shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -12.69%.
DLTR shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 2.24% yearly.
The Revenue for DLTR has decreased by -36.64% in the past year. This is quite bad
The Revenue has been decreasing by -5.73% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-12.69%
EPS 3Y-2.78%
EPS 5Y2.24%
EPS Q2Q%-11.89%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-36.64%
Revenue growth 3Y-12.59%
Revenue growth 5Y-5.73%
Sales Q2Q%-39.21%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 8.01% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -5.28% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y3.17%
EPS Next 2Y8.79%
EPS Next 3Y10.31%
EPS Next 5Y8.01%
Revenue Next Year-38.07%
Revenue Next 2Y-18.99%
Revenue Next 3Y-11.49%
Revenue Next 5Y-5.28%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 19.19 indicates a rather expensive valuation of DLTR.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of DLTR is on the same level as its industry peers.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.15. DLTR is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 15.70, which indicates a correct valuation of DLTR.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, DLTR is valued a bit cheaper than 77.50% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of DLTR to the average of the S&P500 Index (21.60), we can say DLTR is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19.19 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.7 |
4.2 Price Multiples
DLTR's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, DLTR is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 80.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.23 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.58 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates DLTR does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
The decent profitability rating of DLTR may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)6.06
PEG (5Y)8.55
EPS Next 2Y8.79%
EPS Next 3Y10.31%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
DLTR does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
99.04
+0.34 (+0.34%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustryConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners108.64%
Inst Owner Change2.15%
Ins Owners0.12%
Ins Owner Change7.11%
Market Cap20.81B
Analysts71.52
Price Target96.08 (-2.99%)
Short Float %6.46%
Short Ratio2.69
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-1.47%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.74%
Max EPS beat(2)2.81%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-9.26%
Min EPS beat(4)-36.9%
Max EPS beat(4)2.81%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-5.28%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)-4.15%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)-0.25%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.67%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.62%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.27%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.27%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.27%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.55%
Revenue beat(12)1
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.42%
Revenue beat(16)2
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.55%
PT rev (1m)11.87%
PT rev (3m)13.59%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-38.25%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-55.22%
EPS NY rev (1m)4.65%
EPS NY rev (3m)-9.33%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.56%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-41.88%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.75%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-40.29%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19.19 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.7 | ||
| P/S | 1.06 | ||
| P/FCF | 13.23 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.86 | ||
| P/B | 5.33 | ||
| P/tB | 5.98 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.58 |
EPS(TTM)5.16
EY5.21%
EPS(NY)6.31
Fwd EY6.37%
FCF(TTM)7.49
FCFY7.56%
OCF(TTM)12.61
OCFY12.73%
SpS93.2
BVpS18.58
TBVpS16.57
PEG (NY)6.06
PEG (5Y)8.55
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -16.33% | ||
| ROE | -76.49% | ||
| ROCE | 15.47% | ||
| ROIC | 11.72% | ||
| ROICexc | 13.03% | ||
| ROICexgc | 13.66% | ||
| OM | 7.94% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 32.14% | ||
| FCFM | 8.03% |
ROA(3y)-4.59%
ROA(5y)-0.23%
ROE(3y)-23.79%
ROE(5y)-7.15%
ROIC(3y)10.12%
ROIC(5y)9.34%
ROICexc(3y)10.93%
ROICexc(5y)10.07%
ROICexgc(3y)13.1%
ROICexgc(5y)13.01%
ROCE(3y)13.36%
ROCE(5y)12.32%
ROICexcg growth 3Y6.23%
ROICexcg growth 5Y4.41%
ROICexc growth 3Y18.09%
ROICexc growth 5Y11.96%
OM growth 3Y9.44%
OM growth 5Y6.07%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y6.8%
GM growth 5Y3.73%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.07
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.62 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.18 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.21 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 242.43% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 5.5% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 11.71 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 132.5% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.04 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.72 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.54 |
F-Score5
WACC8.08%
ROIC/WACC1.45
Cap/Depr(3y)236.14%
Cap/Depr(5y)196.44%
Cap/Sales(3y)6.31%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.27%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-12.69%
EPS 3Y-2.78%
EPS 5Y2.24%
EPS Q2Q%-11.89%
EPS Next Y3.17%
EPS Next 2Y8.79%
EPS Next 3Y10.31%
EPS Next 5Y8.01%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-36.64%
Revenue growth 3Y-12.59%
Revenue growth 5Y-5.73%
Sales Q2Q%-39.21%
Revenue Next Year-38.07%
Revenue Next 2Y-18.99%
Revenue Next 3Y-11.49%
Revenue Next 5Y-5.28%
EBIT growth 1Y-27.35%
EBIT growth 3Y-4.34%
EBIT growth 5Y-0.01%
EBIT Next Year36.43%
EBIT Next 3Y17.79%
EBIT Next 5Y11.74%
FCF growth 1Y229.03%
FCF growth 3Y56.35%
FCF growth 5Y13.4%
OCF growth 1Y44.92%
OCF growth 3Y25.98%
OCF growth 5Y8.89%