CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:COP - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US20825C1045 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
COP gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 211 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. COP has an average financial health and profitability rating. COP is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
COP had positive earnings in the past year.
COP had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
COP had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years COP had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 10.25%, COP is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 75.98% of the companies in the same industry.
COP has a better Return On Equity (19.88%) than 73.53% of its industry peers.
COP has a better Return On Invested Capital (10.93%) than 72.06% of its industry peers.
COP had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 14.29%. This is significantly below the industry average of 28.75%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 10.25% | ||
| ROE | 19.88% | ||
| ROIC | 10.93% |
ROA(3y)13.37%
ROA(5y)9.2%
ROE(3y)26.23%
ROE(5y)18.04%
ROIC(3y)14.29%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
COP has a better Profit Margin (17.95%) than 63.24% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of COP has grown nicely.
COP has a Operating Margin of 25.49%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: COP outperforms 56.37% of its industry peers.
COP's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of COP (47.34%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of COP has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 25.49% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 17.95% | ||
| GM | 47.34% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y2.46%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y2.58%
GM growth 3Y11.66%
GM growth 5Y0.18%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
COP has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, COP has more shares outstanding
COP has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for COP is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 3.68 indicates that COP is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
COP has a better Altman-Z score (3.68) than 82.84% of its industry peers.
COP has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.98. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.98 years to pay back of all of its debts.
COP has a better Debt to FCF ratio (1.98) than 76.47% of its industry peers.
COP has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.34. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.34, COP is in line with its industry, outperforming 55.39% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.34 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.98 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.68 |
ROIC/WACC1.32
WACC8.26%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.30 indicates that COP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of COP (1.30) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
COP has a Quick Ratio of 1.16. This is a normal value and indicates that COP is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 1.16, COP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 57.35% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.3 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.16 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
COP shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -11.50%.
COP shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 16.70% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-11.5%
EPS 3Y9%
EPS 5Y16.7%
EPS Q2Q%-17.5%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%-3.72%
3.2 Future
COP is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 9.57% yearly.
COP is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -3.28% yearly.
EPS Next Y6.88%
EPS Next 2Y9.15%
EPS Next 3Y7.47%
EPS Next 5Y9.57%
Revenue Next Year11.49%
Revenue Next 2Y7.85%
Revenue Next 3Y-4.95%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.28%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 12.60, the valuation of COP can be described as correct.
COP's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
COP's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 29.63.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.79, the valuation of COP can be described as very reasonable.
60.78% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than COP, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
COP is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.68, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.6 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.79 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of COP indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: COP is cheaper than 60.78% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of COP is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.51 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.03 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates COP does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
The decent profitability rating of COP may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)1.83
PEG (5Y)0.75
EPS Next 2Y9.15%
EPS Next 3Y7.47%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
COP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.06%.
COP's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 6.67.
COP's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.27.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.06% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of COP grows each year by 17.10%, which is quite nice.
COP has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)17.1%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
41.93% of the earnings are spent on dividend by COP. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
The dividend of COP is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP41.93%
EPS Next 2Y9.15%
EPS Next 3Y7.47%
97.94
-4.06 (-3.98%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners82.74%
Inst Owner Change8.1%
Ins Owners0.08%
Ins Owner Change6.54%
Market Cap124.96B
Analysts83.03
Price Target133.51 (36.32%)
Short Float %1.03%
Short Ratio1.87
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.06% |
Yearly Dividend2.97
Dividend Growth(5Y)17.1%
DP41.93%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)3.7%
Min EPS beat(2)0%
Max EPS beat(2)7.4%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)4.95%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.46%
Max EPS beat(4)13.87%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)3.29%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)3.41%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)8.67%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-5.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.19%
Max Revenue beat(2)-3.91%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-4.51%
Min Revenue beat(4)-6.19%
Max Revenue beat(4)-3.01%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-3.45%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.62%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.94%
PT rev (1m)-0.7%
PT rev (3m)-0.42%
EPS NQ rev (1m)3.34%
EPS NQ rev (3m)2.25%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.28%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.26%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)4.45%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)5.55%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.21%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.09%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.6 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.79 | ||
| P/S | 2.26 | ||
| P/FCF | 13.51 | ||
| P/OCF | 5.97 | ||
| P/B | 2.51 | ||
| P/tB | 2.51 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.03 |
EPS(TTM)7.77
EY7.93%
EPS(NY)8.3
Fwd EY8.48%
FCF(TTM)7.25
FCFY7.4%
OCF(TTM)16.4
OCFY16.75%
SpS43.29
BVpS39.1
TBVpS39.1
PEG (NY)1.83
PEG (5Y)0.75
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 10.25% | ||
| ROE | 19.88% | ||
| ROCE | 16.39% | ||
| ROIC | 10.93% | ||
| ROICexc | 11.87% | ||
| ROICexgc | 11.87% | ||
| OM | 25.49% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 17.95% | ||
| GM | 47.34% | ||
| FCFM | 16.74% |
ROA(3y)13.37%
ROA(5y)9.2%
ROE(3y)26.23%
ROE(5y)18.04%
ROIC(3y)14.29%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)15.77%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)15.77%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)21.42%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y4.3%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y4.3%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y2.46%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y2.58%
GM growth 3Y11.66%
GM growth 5Y0.18%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.57
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.34 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.98 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.73 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 127.58% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 21.15% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 17.69 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 90.06% | ||
| Profit Quality | 93.26% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.3 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.16 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.68 |
F-Score6
WACC8.26%
ROIC/WACC1.32
Cap/Depr(3y)115.08%
Cap/Depr(5y)107.92%
Cap/Sales(3y)14.87%
Cap/Sales(5y)18.03%
Profit Quality(3y)107.38%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-11.5%
EPS 3Y9%
EPS 5Y16.7%
EPS Q2Q%-17.5%
EPS Next Y6.88%
EPS Next 2Y9.15%
EPS Next 3Y7.47%
EPS Next 5Y9.57%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%-3.72%
Revenue Next Year11.49%
Revenue Next 2Y7.85%
Revenue Next 3Y-4.95%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.28%
EBIT growth 1Y-12.14%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y11.65%
EBIT Next Year50.03%
EBIT Next 3Y21.42%
EBIT Next 5Y7.96%
FCF growth 1Y-49.77%
FCF growth 3Y364.46%
FCF growth 5Y7.11%
OCF growth 1Y-24.14%
OCF growth 3Y60.8%
OCF growth 5Y9.07%