CHURCHILL DOWNS INC (CHDN) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:CHDN - Nasdaq - US1714841087 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall CHDN gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated CHDN against 135 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. CHDN has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. CHDN has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
CHDN had positive earnings in the past year.
CHDN had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: CHDN reported negative net income in multiple years.
CHDN had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of CHDN (5.73%) is better than 73.28% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of CHDN (37.46%) is better than 90.08% of its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 7.90%, CHDN is doing good in the industry, outperforming 61.07% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for CHDN is below the industry average of 10.79%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (7.90%) for CHDN is above the 3 year average (7.01%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.73% | ||
| ROE | 37.46% | ||
| ROIC | 7.9% |
ROA(3y)7.14%
ROA(5y)4.75%
ROE(3y)69.19%
ROE(5y)42.46%
ROIC(3y)7.01%
ROIC(5y)6.16%
1.3 Margins
CHDN has a better Profit Margin (15.38%) than 86.26% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of CHDN has declined.
CHDN has a Operating Margin of 26.06%. This is amongst the best in the industry. CHDN outperforms 90.08% of its industry peers.
CHDN's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
CHDN has a worse Gross Margin (34.95%) than 70.99% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of CHDN has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 26.06% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.38% | ||
| GM | 34.95% |
OM growth 3Y47.79%
OM growth 5Y4.08%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-13.48%
GM growth 3Y7.66%
GM growth 5Y2.8%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), CHDN is destroying value.
There is no outstanding debt for CHDN. This means it has a Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratio of 0 and it is amongst the best of the sector and industry.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.72, we must say that CHDN is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.72, CHDN perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 52.67% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of CHDN is 31.68, which is on the high side as it means it would take CHDN, 31.68 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 31.68, CHDN is in line with its industry, outperforming 41.22% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 4.35 is on the high side and indicates that CHDN has dependencies on debt financing.
CHDN has a Debt to Equity ratio (4.35) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.35 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 31.68 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.72 |
ROIC/WACC0.88
WACC8.96%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.55 indicates that CHDN may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 0.55, CHDN is not doing good in the industry: 72.52% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
A Quick Ratio of 0.55 indicates that CHDN may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
CHDN has a worse Quick ratio (0.55) than 68.70% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.55 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.55 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 19.39% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 6.77% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)19.39%
EPS 3Y-3.17%
EPS 5Y6.77%
EPS Q2Q%6.98%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%11.23%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 16.07% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
CHDN is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 5.30% yearly.
EPS Next Y21.11%
EPS Next 2Y18.35%
EPS Next 3Y16.07%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year9.66%
Revenue Next 2Y7.51%
Revenue Next 3Y5.3%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 19.78, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of CHDN.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of CHDN indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: CHDN is cheaper than 70.99% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 29.63. CHDN is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 16.33, the valuation of CHDN can be described as correct.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of CHDN indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: CHDN is cheaper than 74.81% of the companies listed in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of CHDN to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.68), we can say CHDN is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19.78 | ||
| Fwd PE | 16.33 |
4.2 Price Multiples
CHDN's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
CHDN's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 56.31 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 15.11 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of CHDN may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as CHDN's earnings are expected to grow with 16.07% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.94
PEG (5Y)2.92
EPS Next 2Y18.35%
EPS Next 3Y16.07%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
CHDN has a yearly dividend return of 0.34%, which is pretty low.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.06, CHDN pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.29, CHDN's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.34% |
5.2 History
The dividend of CHDN has a limited annual growth rate of 5.81%.
CHDN has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
CHDN has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.81%
Div Incr Years14
Div Non Decr Years23
5.3 Sustainability
CHDN pays out 7.06% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
CHDN's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP7.06%
EPS Next 2Y18.35%
EPS Next 3Y16.07%
116.91
-2.14 (-1.8%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners79.56%
Inst Owner Change1.13%
Ins Owners5.17%
Ins Owner Change2.01%
Market Cap8.59B
Analysts84.71
Price Target166 (41.99%)
Short Float %1.87%
Short Ratio2.66
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.34% |
Yearly Dividend0.36
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.81%
DP7.06%
Div Incr Years14
Div Non Decr Years23
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-2.84%
Min EPS beat(2)-10.31%
Max EPS beat(2)4.63%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)10.62%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.31%
Max EPS beat(4)34.09%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)2.42%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)4.55%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)4.41%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.12%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.94%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.7%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.37%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.94%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.37%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.39%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.63%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.12%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-0.12%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-2.71%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-2.71%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.83%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.83%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.05%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.05%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.07%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.04%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19.78 | ||
| Fwd PE | 16.33 | ||
| P/S | 3.22 | ||
| P/FCF | 56.31 | ||
| P/OCF | 11.48 | ||
| P/B | 7.83 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 15.11 |
EPS(TTM)5.91
EY5.06%
EPS(NY)7.16
Fwd EY6.12%
FCF(TTM)2.08
FCFY1.78%
OCF(TTM)10.19
OCFY8.71%
SpS36.34
BVpS14.93
TBVpS-30.13
PEG (NY)0.94
PEG (5Y)2.92
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.73% | ||
| ROE | 37.46% | ||
| ROCE | 10.77% | ||
| ROIC | 7.9% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.09% | ||
| ROICexgc | 17.03% | ||
| OM | 26.06% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.38% | ||
| GM | 34.95% | ||
| FCFM | 5.71% |
ROA(3y)7.14%
ROA(5y)4.75%
ROE(3y)69.19%
ROE(5y)42.46%
ROIC(3y)7.01%
ROIC(5y)6.16%
ROICexc(3y)7.47%
ROICexc(5y)6.52%
ROICexgc(3y)14.26%
ROICexgc(5y)11.63%
ROCE(3y)9.55%
ROCE(5y)8.39%
ROICexcg growth 3Y59.66%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-4.4%
ROICexc growth 3Y39.81%
ROICexc growth 5Y-8.05%
OM growth 3Y47.79%
OM growth 5Y4.08%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-13.48%
GM growth 3Y7.66%
GM growth 5Y2.8%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.37
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.35 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 31.68 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.37 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 308.97% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 22.31% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.26 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 84.21% | ||
| Profit Quality | 37.14% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.55 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.55 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.72 |
F-Score8
WACC8.96%
ROIC/WACC0.88
Cap/Depr(3y)297%
Cap/Depr(5y)262.5%
Cap/Sales(3y)19.49%
Cap/Sales(5y)18.59%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)19.39%
EPS 3Y-3.17%
EPS 5Y6.77%
EPS Q2Q%6.98%
EPS Next Y21.11%
EPS Next 2Y18.35%
EPS Next 3Y16.07%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%11.23%
Revenue Next Year9.66%
Revenue Next 2Y7.51%
Revenue Next 3Y5.3%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y23.44%
EBIT growth 3Y96.09%
EBIT growth 5Y24.41%
EBIT Next Year65.61%
EBIT Next 3Y23.5%
EBIT Next 5Y19.01%
FCF growth 1Y-2.37%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y51.85%
OCF growth 3Y62.22%
OCF growth 5Y25.09%