CHURCHILL DOWNS INC (CHDN) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:CHDN - Nasdaq - US1714841087 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall CHDN gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. We evaluated CHDN against 132 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. While CHDN belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are concerns on its financial health. CHDN is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
CHDN had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year CHDN had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years CHDN 4 years were profitable.
In the past 5 years CHDN always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
CHDN has a better Return On Assets (5.72%) than 72.73% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 39.20%, CHDN belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 88.64% of the companies in the same industry.
CHDN has a Return On Invested Capital of 8.09%. This is in the better half of the industry: CHDN outperforms 66.67% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for CHDN is significantly below the industry average of 13.91%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (8.09%) for CHDN is above the 3 year average (6.83%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.72% | ||
| ROE | 39.2% | ||
| ROIC | 8.09% |
ROA(3y)6.3%
ROA(5y)4.84%
ROE(3y)55.16%
ROE(5y)44.87%
ROIC(3y)6.83%
ROIC(5y)6.39%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 15.08%, CHDN belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 89.39% of the companies in the same industry.
CHDN's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
CHDN has a Operating Margin of 25.32%. This is amongst the best in the industry. CHDN outperforms 90.15% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of CHDN has grown nicely.
With a Gross Margin value of 34.45%, CHDN is not doing good in the industry: 71.21% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of CHDN has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 25.32% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.08% | ||
| GM | 34.45% |
OM growth 3Y10%
OM growth 5Y9.05%
PM growth 3Y-0.21%
PM growth 5Y8.43%
GM growth 3Y3.21%
GM growth 5Y1.43%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), CHDN is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, CHDN has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, CHDN has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, CHDN has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.57, we must say that CHDN is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.57, CHDN perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 48.48% of the companies in the same industry.
CHDN has a debt to FCF ratio of 16.68. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as CHDN would need 16.68 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 16.68, CHDN is in line with its industry, outperforming 47.73% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 4.49 is on the high side and indicates that CHDN has dependencies on debt financing.
CHDN has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (4.49) than 63.64% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.49 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 16.68 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.57 |
ROIC/WACC0.91
WACC8.9%
2.3 Liquidity
CHDN has a Current Ratio of 0.53. This is a bad value and indicates that CHDN is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
CHDN has a worse Current ratio (0.53) than 72.73% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.52 indicates that CHDN may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
CHDN's Quick ratio of 0.52 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. CHDN is outperformed by 71.21% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.53 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.52 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
CHDN shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 14.71%, which is quite good.
Measured over the past 5 years, CHDN shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 6.77% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, CHDN shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 11.75% in the last year.
CHDN shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 15.51% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)14.71%
EPS 3Y-3.17%
EPS 5Y6.77%
EPS Q2Q%-5.31%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)11.75%
Revenue growth 3Y19.63%
Revenue growth 5Y15.51%
Sales Q2Q%8.75%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, CHDN will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 8.30% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, CHDN will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 4.48% on average per year.
EPS Next Y4.45%
EPS Next 2Y9.28%
EPS Next 3Y8.3%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year5.82%
Revenue Next 2Y5.2%
Revenue Next 3Y4.48%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 18.04, the valuation of CHDN can be described as rather expensive.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, CHDN is valued a bit cheaper than 77.27% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.50, CHDN is valued a bit cheaper.
CHDN is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.96.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, CHDN is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 74.24% of the companies are valued more expensively.
CHDN is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 36.44, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.04 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.96 |
4.2 Price Multiples
CHDN's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, CHDN is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 70.45% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 26.07 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.5 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates CHDN does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
The decent profitability rating of CHDN may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)4.06
PEG (5Y)2.67
EPS Next 2Y9.28%
EPS Next 3Y8.3%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.38%, CHDN is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
CHDN's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 3.47.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.38, CHDN pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.35.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.38% |
5.2 History
The dividend of CHDN is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 7.32%!
CHDN has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
CHDN has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.32%
Div Incr Years14
Div Non Decr Years23
5.3 Sustainability
7.31% of the earnings are spent on dividend by CHDN. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
CHDN's earnings are growing around the same pace than its dividend. As long as the earnings growth is kept the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP7.31%
EPS Next 2Y9.28%
EPS Next 3Y8.3%
105.55
-0.72 (-0.68%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners80.71%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners5.47%
Ins Owner Change0.57%
Market Cap7.62B
Analysts84.44
Price Target137 (29.8%)
Short Float %3.18%
Short Ratio2.66
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.38% |
Yearly Dividend0.39
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.32%
DP7.31%
Div Incr Years14
Div Non Decr Years23
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-0.39%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.06%
Max EPS beat(2)4.28%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-1.62%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.31%
Max EPS beat(4)4.63%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)3.16%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)3.44%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)4.4%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.48%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.66%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.31%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.8%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.94%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.7%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.96%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.06%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.71%
PT rev (1m)-1.27%
PT rev (3m)-15.78%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-6.8%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.98%
EPS NY rev (3m)-7.41%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.43%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.98%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.54%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.03%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.04 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.96 | ||
| P/S | 2.74 | ||
| P/FCF | 26.07 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.97 | ||
| P/B | 7.11 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.5 |
EPS(TTM)5.85
EY5.54%
EPS(NY)7.06
Fwd EY6.69%
FCF(TTM)4.05
FCFY3.84%
OCF(TTM)10.58
OCFY10.03%
SpS38.57
BVpS14.84
TBVpS-30.94
PEG (NY)4.06
PEG (5Y)2.67
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.72% | ||
| ROE | 39.2% | ||
| ROCE | 10.85% | ||
| ROIC | 8.09% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.31% | ||
| ROICexgc | 17.42% | ||
| OM | 25.32% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.08% | ||
| GM | 34.45% | ||
| FCFM | 10.5% |
ROA(3y)6.3%
ROA(5y)4.84%
ROE(3y)55.16%
ROE(5y)44.87%
ROIC(3y)6.83%
ROIC(5y)6.39%
ROICexc(3y)7%
ROICexc(5y)6.74%
ROICexgc(3y)15.35%
ROICexgc(5y)12.91%
ROCE(3y)9.16%
ROCE(5y)8.57%
ROICexcg growth 3Y5.55%
ROICexcg growth 5Y7.97%
ROICexc growth 3Y-6.37%
ROICexc growth 5Y1.4%
OM growth 3Y10%
OM growth 5Y9.05%
PM growth 3Y-0.21%
PM growth 5Y8.43%
GM growth 3Y3.21%
GM growth 5Y1.43%
F-Score9
Asset Turnover0.38
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.49 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 16.68 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.25 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 223.32% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 16.95% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.35 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 83.39% | ||
| Profit Quality | 69.6% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.53 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.57 |
F-Score9
WACC8.9%
ROIC/WACC0.91
Cap/Depr(3y)358.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)283.57%
Cap/Sales(3y)24.24%
Cap/Sales(5y)20.14%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)14.71%
EPS 3Y-3.17%
EPS 5Y6.77%
EPS Q2Q%-5.31%
EPS Next Y4.45%
EPS Next 2Y9.28%
EPS Next 3Y8.3%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)11.75%
Revenue growth 3Y19.63%
Revenue growth 5Y15.51%
Sales Q2Q%8.75%
Revenue Next Year5.82%
Revenue Next 2Y5.2%
Revenue Next 3Y4.48%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y16.77%
EBIT growth 3Y31.58%
EBIT growth 5Y25.96%
EBIT Next Year65.04%
EBIT Next 3Y21.57%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y258.77%
FCF growth 3Y-2.53%
FCF growth 5Y12.31%
OCF growth 1Y23.81%
OCF growth 3Y32.06%
OCF growth 5Y21.69%