CHURCHILL DOWNS INC (CHDN) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:CHDN - Nasdaq - US1714841087 - Common Stock
Overall CHDN gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. We evaluated CHDN against 134 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. While CHDN has a great profitability rating, there are quite some concerns on its financial health. CHDN has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year CHDN was profitable.
CHDN had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
CHDN had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years CHDN always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
CHDN has a Return On Assets of 5.73%. This is in the better half of the industry: CHDN outperforms 72.52% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of CHDN (37.46%) is better than 90.08% of its industry peers.
CHDN has a Return On Invested Capital of 7.90%. This is in the better half of the industry: CHDN outperforms 62.60% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for CHDN is below the industry average of 10.54%.
The 3 year average ROIC (7.01%) for CHDN is below the current ROIC(7.90%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.73% | ||
| ROE | 37.46% | ||
| ROIC | 7.9% |
ROA(3y)7.14%
ROA(5y)4.75%
ROE(3y)69.19%
ROE(5y)42.46%
ROIC(3y)7.01%
ROIC(5y)6.16%
1.3 Margins
CHDN's Profit Margin of 15.38% is amongst the best of the industry. CHDN outperforms 86.26% of its industry peers.
CHDN's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of CHDN (26.06%) is better than 90.08% of its industry peers.
CHDN's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
With a Gross Margin value of 34.95%, CHDN is not doing good in the industry: 70.23% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of CHDN has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 26.06% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.38% | ||
| GM | 34.95% |
OM growth 3Y47.79%
OM growth 5Y4.08%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-13.48%
GM growth 3Y7.66%
GM growth 5Y2.8%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), CHDN is creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for CHDN has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for CHDN has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for CHDN has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.77, we must say that CHDN is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.77, CHDN is in line with its industry, outperforming 52.67% of the companies in the same industry.
CHDN has a debt to FCF ratio of 31.68. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as CHDN would need 31.68 years to pay back of all of its debts.
CHDN has a Debt to FCF ratio (31.68) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 4.35 is on the high side and indicates that CHDN has dependencies on debt financing.
CHDN has a Debt to Equity ratio (4.35) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.35 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 31.68 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.77 |
ROIC/WACC1.01
WACC7.82%
2.3 Liquidity
CHDN has a Current Ratio of 0.55. This is a bad value and indicates that CHDN is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
CHDN has a worse Current ratio (0.55) than 71.76% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.55 indicates that CHDN may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.55, CHDN is doing worse than 67.94% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.55 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.55 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 21.37% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 7.59% on average over the past years.
Looking at the last year, CHDN shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 12.21% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, CHDN shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 19.53% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)21.37%
EPS 3Y76.52%
EPS 5Y7.59%
EPS Q2Q%11.49%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)12.21%
Revenue growth 3Y32.68%
Revenue growth 5Y19.53%
Sales Q2Q%9.78%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, CHDN will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 16.89% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 6.76% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y24.25%
EPS Next 2Y21.09%
EPS Next 3Y18.9%
EPS Next 5Y16.89%
Revenue Next Year11.3%
Revenue Next 2Y10.56%
Revenue Next 3Y8.65%
Revenue Next 5Y6.76%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 21.59, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of CHDN.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of CHDN indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: CHDN is cheaper than 66.41% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 28.29. CHDN is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 17.40 indicates a rather expensive valuation of CHDN.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of CHDN indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: CHDN is cheaper than 69.47% of the companies listed in the same industry.
CHDN is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 24.44, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21.59 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.4 |
4.2 Price Multiples
CHDN's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as CHDN.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 60.82 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 15.72 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
CHDN has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
CHDN's earnings are expected to grow with 18.90% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.89
PEG (5Y)2.84
EPS Next 2Y21.09%
EPS Next 3Y18.9%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.33%, CHDN is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
CHDN's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 2.98.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.33, CHDN pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.28.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.33% |
5.2 History
The dividend of CHDN has a limited annual growth rate of 5.81%.
CHDN has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
CHDN has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.81%
Div Incr Years14
Div Non Decr Years23
5.3 Sustainability
7.06% of the earnings are spent on dividend by CHDN. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
CHDN's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP7.06%
EPS Next 2Y21.09%
EPS Next 3Y18.9%
CHURCHILL DOWNS INC
NASDAQ:CHDN (1/22/2025, 11:41:34 AM)
126.28
-0.11 (-0.09%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners79.56%
Inst Owner Change-0.06%
Ins Owners5.17%
Ins Owner Change1.83%
Market Cap9.28B
Analysts84.71
Price Target166.28 (31.68%)
Short Float %2.22%
Short Ratio3.43
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.33% |
Yearly Dividend0.36
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.81%
DP7.06%
Div Incr Years14
Div Non Decr Years23
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-2.84%
Min EPS beat(2)-10.31%
Max EPS beat(2)4.63%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)10.62%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.31%
Max EPS beat(4)34.09%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)2.42%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)4.55%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)4.41%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.12%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.94%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.7%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.37%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.94%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.37%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.39%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.63%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.12%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)1.89%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-15.48%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-2.35%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.92%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.04%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.82%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21.59 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.4 | ||
| P/S | 3.47 | ||
| P/FCF | 60.82 | ||
| P/OCF | 12.4 | ||
| P/B | 8.46 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 15.72 |
EPS(TTM)5.85
EY4.63%
EPS(NY)7.26
Fwd EY5.75%
FCF(TTM)2.08
FCFY1.64%
OCF(TTM)10.19
OCFY8.07%
SpS36.34
BVpS14.93
TBVpS-30.13
PEG (NY)0.89
PEG (5Y)2.84
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.73% | ||
| ROE | 37.46% | ||
| ROCE | 10.77% | ||
| ROIC | 7.9% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.09% | ||
| ROICexgc | 17.03% | ||
| OM | 26.06% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.38% | ||
| GM | 34.95% | ||
| FCFM | 5.71% |
ROA(3y)7.14%
ROA(5y)4.75%
ROE(3y)69.19%
ROE(5y)42.46%
ROIC(3y)7.01%
ROIC(5y)6.16%
ROICexc(3y)7.47%
ROICexc(5y)6.52%
ROICexgc(3y)14.26%
ROICexgc(5y)11.63%
ROCE(3y)9.55%
ROCE(5y)8.39%
ROICexcg growth 3Y59.66%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-4.4%
ROICexc growth 3Y39.81%
ROICexc growth 5Y-8.05%
OM growth 3Y47.79%
OM growth 5Y4.08%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-13.48%
GM growth 3Y7.66%
GM growth 5Y2.8%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.37
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.35 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 31.68 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.37 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 308.97% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 22.31% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.26 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 84.21% | ||
| Profit Quality | 37.14% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.55 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.55 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.77 |
F-Score8
WACC7.82%
ROIC/WACC1.01
Cap/Depr(3y)297%
Cap/Depr(5y)262.5%
Cap/Sales(3y)19.49%
Cap/Sales(5y)18.59%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)21.37%
EPS 3Y76.52%
EPS 5Y7.59%
EPS Q2Q%11.49%
EPS Next Y24.25%
EPS Next 2Y21.09%
EPS Next 3Y18.9%
EPS Next 5Y16.89%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)12.21%
Revenue growth 3Y32.68%
Revenue growth 5Y19.53%
Sales Q2Q%9.78%
Revenue Next Year11.3%
Revenue Next 2Y10.56%
Revenue Next 3Y8.65%
Revenue Next 5Y6.76%
EBIT growth 1Y23.44%
EBIT growth 3Y96.09%
EBIT growth 5Y24.41%
EBIT Next Year65.61%
EBIT Next 3Y23.47%
EBIT Next 5Y19.01%
FCF growth 1Y-2.37%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y51.85%
OCF growth 3Y62.22%
OCF growth 5Y25.09%