CHURCHILL DOWNS INC (CHDN) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:CHDN - Nasdaq - US1714841087 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
CHDN gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 134 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. CHDN has an excellent profitability rating, but there are concerns on its financial health. CHDN has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
CHDN had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year CHDN had a positive cash flow from operations.
CHDN had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years CHDN had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 5.72%, CHDN is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 73.13% of the companies in the same industry.
CHDN has a Return On Equity of 39.20%. This is amongst the best in the industry. CHDN outperforms 88.81% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of CHDN (8.09%) is better than 66.42% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for CHDN is significantly below the industry average of 13.81%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (8.09%) for CHDN is above the 3 year average (6.83%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.72% | ||
| ROE | 39.2% | ||
| ROIC | 8.09% |
ROA(3y)6.3%
ROA(5y)4.84%
ROE(3y)55.16%
ROE(5y)44.87%
ROIC(3y)6.83%
ROIC(5y)6.39%
1.3 Margins
CHDN's Profit Margin of 15.08% is amongst the best of the industry. CHDN outperforms 90.30% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of CHDN has grown nicely.
With an excellent Operating Margin value of 25.32%, CHDN belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 90.30% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of CHDN has grown nicely.
CHDN has a worse Gross Margin (34.45%) than 70.90% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of CHDN has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 25.32% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.08% | ||
| GM | 34.45% |
OM growth 3Y10%
OM growth 5Y9.05%
PM growth 3Y-0.21%
PM growth 5Y8.43%
GM growth 3Y3.21%
GM growth 5Y1.43%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so CHDN is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for CHDN has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, CHDN has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, CHDN has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.56, we must say that CHDN is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
CHDN has a Altman-Z score (1.56) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of CHDN is 16.68, which is on the high side as it means it would take CHDN, 16.68 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
CHDN has a Debt to FCF ratio of 16.68. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: CHDN outperforms 47.76% of its industry peers.
CHDN has a Debt/Equity ratio of 4.49. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
CHDN's Debt to Equity ratio of 4.49 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. CHDN is outperformed by 61.94% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.49 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 16.68 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.56 |
ROIC/WACC0.92
WACC8.78%
2.3 Liquidity
CHDN has a Current Ratio of 0.53. This is a bad value and indicates that CHDN is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of CHDN (0.53) is worse than 72.39% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.52 indicates that CHDN may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
CHDN has a worse Quick ratio (0.52) than 70.15% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.53 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.52 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 14.71% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 6.77% on average over the past years.
Looking at the last year, CHDN shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 11.75% in the last year.
CHDN shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 15.51% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)14.71%
EPS 3Y-3.17%
EPS 5Y6.77%
EPS Q2Q%-5.31%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)11.75%
Revenue growth 3Y19.63%
Revenue growth 5Y15.51%
Sales Q2Q%8.75%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, CHDN will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 7.36% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, CHDN will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 4.92% on average per year.
EPS Next Y4.24%
EPS Next 2Y8.92%
EPS Next 3Y7.36%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.25%
Revenue Next 2Y5.62%
Revenue Next 3Y4.92%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
CHDN is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 18.00.
CHDN's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. CHDN is cheaper than 78.36% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.45. CHDN is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
CHDN is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.02.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of CHDN indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: CHDN is cheaper than 74.63% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.90, CHDN is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.02 |
4.2 Price Multiples
CHDN's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
69.40% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than CHDN, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 26.01 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.43 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of CHDN may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)4.25
PEG (5Y)2.66
EPS Next 2Y8.92%
EPS Next 3Y7.36%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
CHDN has a yearly dividend return of 0.39%, which is pretty low.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.60, CHDN pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.39, CHDN pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.38.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.39% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of CHDN grows each year by 7.32%, which is quite nice.
CHDN has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
CHDN has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.32%
Div Incr Years14
Div Non Decr Years23
5.3 Sustainability
7.31% of the earnings are spent on dividend by CHDN. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of CHDN is growing around the same rate as the earnings are growing. If this keeps up the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP7.31%
EPS Next 2Y8.92%
EPS Next 3Y7.36%
105.3
+0.35 (+0.33%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners80.71%
Inst Owner Change-53.63%
Ins Owners5.47%
Ins Owner Change0.57%
Market Cap7.61B
Analysts84.44
Price Target137 (30.1%)
Short Float %3.43%
Short Ratio2.32
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.39% |
Yearly Dividend0.39
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.32%
DP7.31%
Div Incr Years14
Div Non Decr Years23
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-0.39%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.06%
Max EPS beat(2)4.28%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-1.62%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.31%
Max EPS beat(4)4.63%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)3.16%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)3.44%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)4.4%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.48%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.66%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.31%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.8%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.94%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.7%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.96%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.06%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.71%
PT rev (1m)-3.11%
PT rev (3m)-15.78%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-6.95%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.18%
EPS NY rev (3m)-7.59%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.41%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.03%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.13%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.76%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.02 | ||
| P/S | 2.73 | ||
| P/FCF | 26.01 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.95 | ||
| P/B | 7.1 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.43 |
EPS(TTM)5.85
EY5.56%
EPS(NY)7.01
Fwd EY6.66%
FCF(TTM)4.05
FCFY3.84%
OCF(TTM)10.58
OCFY10.05%
SpS38.57
BVpS14.84
TBVpS-30.94
PEG (NY)4.25
PEG (5Y)2.66
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.72% | ||
| ROE | 39.2% | ||
| ROCE | 10.85% | ||
| ROIC | 8.09% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.31% | ||
| ROICexgc | 17.42% | ||
| OM | 25.32% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.08% | ||
| GM | 34.45% | ||
| FCFM | 10.5% |
ROA(3y)6.3%
ROA(5y)4.84%
ROE(3y)55.16%
ROE(5y)44.87%
ROIC(3y)6.83%
ROIC(5y)6.39%
ROICexc(3y)7%
ROICexc(5y)6.74%
ROICexgc(3y)15.35%
ROICexgc(5y)12.91%
ROCE(3y)9.16%
ROCE(5y)8.57%
ROICexcg growth 3Y5.55%
ROICexcg growth 5Y7.97%
ROICexc growth 3Y-6.37%
ROICexc growth 5Y1.4%
OM growth 3Y10%
OM growth 5Y9.05%
PM growth 3Y-0.21%
PM growth 5Y8.43%
GM growth 3Y3.21%
GM growth 5Y1.43%
F-Score9
Asset Turnover0.38
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.49 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 16.68 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.25 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 223.32% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 16.95% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.35 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 83.39% | ||
| Profit Quality | 69.6% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.53 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.56 |
F-Score9
WACC8.78%
ROIC/WACC0.92
Cap/Depr(3y)358.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)283.57%
Cap/Sales(3y)24.24%
Cap/Sales(5y)20.14%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)14.71%
EPS 3Y-3.17%
EPS 5Y6.77%
EPS Q2Q%-5.31%
EPS Next Y4.24%
EPS Next 2Y8.92%
EPS Next 3Y7.36%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)11.75%
Revenue growth 3Y19.63%
Revenue growth 5Y15.51%
Sales Q2Q%8.75%
Revenue Next Year6.25%
Revenue Next 2Y5.62%
Revenue Next 3Y4.92%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y16.77%
EBIT growth 3Y31.58%
EBIT growth 5Y25.96%
EBIT Next Year65.04%
EBIT Next 3Y21.57%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y258.77%
FCF growth 3Y-2.53%
FCF growth 5Y12.31%
OCF growth 1Y23.81%
OCF growth 3Y32.06%
OCF growth 5Y21.69%