CHURCHILL DOWNS INC (CHDN) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:CHDN - Nasdaq - US1714841087 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall CHDN gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. We evaluated CHDN against 133 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. While CHDN has a great profitability rating, there are quite some concerns on its financial health. CHDN has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
CHDN had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year CHDN had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years CHDN 4 years were profitable.
In the past 5 years CHDN always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
CHDN has a Return On Assets of 5.72%. This is in the better half of the industry: CHDN outperforms 72.93% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of CHDN (39.20%) is better than 88.72% of its industry peers.
CHDN has a Return On Invested Capital of 8.09%. This is in the better half of the industry: CHDN outperforms 66.17% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for CHDN is significantly below the industry average of 13.81%.
The 3 year average ROIC (6.83%) for CHDN is below the current ROIC(8.09%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.72% | ||
| ROE | 39.2% | ||
| ROIC | 8.09% |
ROA(3y)6.3%
ROA(5y)4.84%
ROE(3y)55.16%
ROE(5y)44.87%
ROIC(3y)6.83%
ROIC(5y)6.39%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of CHDN (15.08%) is better than 90.23% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of CHDN has grown nicely.
CHDN's Operating Margin of 25.32% is amongst the best of the industry. CHDN outperforms 90.23% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of CHDN has grown nicely.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 34.45%, CHDN is doing worse than 70.68% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of CHDN has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 25.32% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.08% | ||
| GM | 34.45% |
OM growth 3Y10%
OM growth 5Y9.05%
PM growth 3Y-0.21%
PM growth 5Y8.43%
GM growth 3Y3.21%
GM growth 5Y1.43%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
CHDN has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, CHDN has less shares outstanding
CHDN has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, CHDN has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.55, we must say that CHDN is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
CHDN has a Altman-Z score (1.55) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of CHDN is 16.68, which is on the high side as it means it would take CHDN, 16.68 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of CHDN (16.68) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
CHDN has a Debt/Equity ratio of 4.49. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 4.49, CHDN is not doing good in the industry: 62.41% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.49 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 16.68 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.55 |
ROIC/WACC0.93
WACC8.66%
2.3 Liquidity
CHDN has a Current Ratio of 0.53. This is a bad value and indicates that CHDN is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.53, CHDN is doing worse than 72.93% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.52 indicates that CHDN may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of CHDN (0.52) is worse than 70.68% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.53 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.52 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 14.71% over the past year.
Measured over the past 5 years, CHDN shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 6.77% on average per year.
The Revenue has grown by 11.75% in the past year. This is quite good.
CHDN shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 15.51% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)14.71%
EPS 3Y-3.17%
EPS 5Y6.77%
EPS Q2Q%-5.31%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)11.75%
Revenue growth 3Y19.63%
Revenue growth 5Y15.51%
Sales Q2Q%8.75%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 7.36% on average over the next years.
Based on estimates for the next years, CHDN will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 4.92% on average per year.
EPS Next Y4.24%
EPS Next 2Y8.92%
EPS Next 3Y7.36%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.25%
Revenue Next 2Y5.62%
Revenue Next 3Y4.92%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 17.69 indicates a rather expensive valuation of CHDN.
CHDN's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. CHDN is cheaper than 77.44% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.29. CHDN is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.76, the valuation of CHDN can be described as correct.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, CHDN is valued a bit cheaper than 74.44% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 21.74. CHDN is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.69 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.76 |
4.2 Price Multiples
CHDN's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, CHDN is valued a bit cheaper than 69.17% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 25.56 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.28 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of CHDN may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)4.17
PEG (5Y)2.61
EPS Next 2Y8.92%
EPS Next 3Y7.36%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.39%, CHDN is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
CHDN's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 3.53.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.39, CHDN pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.37.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.39% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of CHDN grows each year by 7.32%, which is quite nice.
CHDN has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
CHDN has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.32%
Div Incr Years14
Div Non Decr Years23
5.3 Sustainability
7.31% of the earnings are spent on dividend by CHDN. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
CHDN's earnings are growing around the same pace than its dividend. As long as the earnings growth is kept the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP7.31%
EPS Next 2Y8.92%
EPS Next 3Y7.36%
103.49
-1.81 (-1.72%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners80.71%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners5.47%
Ins Owner Change0.57%
Market Cap7.48B
Analysts84.44
Price Target137 (32.38%)
Short Float %3.43%
Short Ratio2.32
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.39% |
Yearly Dividend0.39
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.32%
DP7.31%
Div Incr Years14
Div Non Decr Years23
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-0.39%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.06%
Max EPS beat(2)4.28%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-1.62%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.31%
Max EPS beat(4)4.63%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)3.16%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)3.44%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)4.4%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.48%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.66%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.31%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.8%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.94%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.7%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.96%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.06%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.71%
PT rev (1m)-3.11%
PT rev (3m)-15.78%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-6.95%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.18%
EPS NY rev (3m)-7.59%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.41%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.03%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.13%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.76%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.69 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.76 | ||
| P/S | 2.68 | ||
| P/FCF | 25.56 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.78 | ||
| P/B | 6.97 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.28 |
EPS(TTM)5.85
EY5.65%
EPS(NY)7.01
Fwd EY6.77%
FCF(TTM)4.05
FCFY3.91%
OCF(TTM)10.58
OCFY10.23%
SpS38.57
BVpS14.84
TBVpS-30.94
PEG (NY)4.17
PEG (5Y)2.61
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.72% | ||
| ROE | 39.2% | ||
| ROCE | 10.85% | ||
| ROIC | 8.09% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.31% | ||
| ROICexgc | 17.42% | ||
| OM | 25.32% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.08% | ||
| GM | 34.45% | ||
| FCFM | 10.5% |
ROA(3y)6.3%
ROA(5y)4.84%
ROE(3y)55.16%
ROE(5y)44.87%
ROIC(3y)6.83%
ROIC(5y)6.39%
ROICexc(3y)7%
ROICexc(5y)6.74%
ROICexgc(3y)15.35%
ROICexgc(5y)12.91%
ROCE(3y)9.16%
ROCE(5y)8.57%
ROICexcg growth 3Y5.55%
ROICexcg growth 5Y7.97%
ROICexc growth 3Y-6.37%
ROICexc growth 5Y1.4%
OM growth 3Y10%
OM growth 5Y9.05%
PM growth 3Y-0.21%
PM growth 5Y8.43%
GM growth 3Y3.21%
GM growth 5Y1.43%
F-Score9
Asset Turnover0.38
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.49 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 16.68 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.25 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 223.32% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 16.95% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.35 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 83.39% | ||
| Profit Quality | 69.6% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.53 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.55 |
F-Score9
WACC8.66%
ROIC/WACC0.93
Cap/Depr(3y)358.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)283.57%
Cap/Sales(3y)24.24%
Cap/Sales(5y)20.14%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)14.71%
EPS 3Y-3.17%
EPS 5Y6.77%
EPS Q2Q%-5.31%
EPS Next Y4.24%
EPS Next 2Y8.92%
EPS Next 3Y7.36%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)11.75%
Revenue growth 3Y19.63%
Revenue growth 5Y15.51%
Sales Q2Q%8.75%
Revenue Next Year6.25%
Revenue Next 2Y5.62%
Revenue Next 3Y4.92%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y16.77%
EBIT growth 3Y31.58%
EBIT growth 5Y25.96%
EBIT Next Year65.04%
EBIT Next 3Y21.57%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y258.77%
FCF growth 3Y-2.53%
FCF growth 5Y12.31%
OCF growth 1Y23.81%
OCF growth 3Y32.06%
OCF growth 5Y21.69%