CHURCHILL DOWNS INC (CHDN) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:CHDN - Nasdaq - US1714841087 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
CHDN gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 136 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. CHDN has an excellent profitability rating, but there are concerns on its financial health. CHDN has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
CHDN had positive earnings in the past year.
CHDN had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years CHDN 4 years were profitable.
CHDN had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 5.82%, CHDN is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 72.79% of the companies in the same industry.
CHDN has a Return On Equity of 39.11%. This is amongst the best in the industry. CHDN outperforms 88.97% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 7.98%, CHDN is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 61.76% of the companies in the same industry.
CHDN had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 6.83%. This is significantly below the industry average of 15.69%.
The 3 year average ROIC (6.83%) for CHDN is below the current ROIC(7.98%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.82% | ||
| ROE | 39.11% | ||
| ROIC | 7.98% |
ROA(3y)6.3%
ROA(5y)4.84%
ROE(3y)55.16%
ROE(5y)44.87%
ROIC(3y)6.83%
ROIC(5y)6.39%
1.3 Margins
CHDN has a better Profit Margin (15.50%) than 88.24% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of CHDN has grown nicely.
With an excellent Operating Margin value of 25.63%, CHDN belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 90.44% of the companies in the same industry.
CHDN's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
With a Gross Margin value of 34.87%, CHDN is not doing good in the industry: 70.59% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
CHDN's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 25.63% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.5% | ||
| GM | 34.87% |
OM growth 3Y10%
OM growth 5Y9.05%
PM growth 3Y-0.21%
PM growth 5Y8.43%
GM growth 3Y3.21%
GM growth 5Y1.43%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), CHDN is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for CHDN has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for CHDN has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for CHDN has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.60, we must say that CHDN is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.60, CHDN is in line with its industry, outperforming 54.41% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of CHDN is 21.74, which is on the high side as it means it would take CHDN, 21.74 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of CHDN (21.74) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 4.47 is on the high side and indicates that CHDN has dependencies on debt financing.
CHDN's Debt to Equity ratio of 4.47 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. CHDN outperforms 41.18% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 21.74 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.6 |
ROIC/WACC0.94
WACC8.47%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.57 indicates that CHDN may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
CHDN has a worse Current ratio (0.57) than 69.12% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.57 indicates that CHDN may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
CHDN's Quick ratio of 0.57 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. CHDN is outperformed by 65.44% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.57 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.57 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 14.71% over the past year.
Measured over the past 5 years, CHDN shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 6.77% on average per year.
CHDN shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 11.07%.
CHDN shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 15.51% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)14.71%
EPS 3Y-3.17%
EPS 5Y6.77%
EPS Q2Q%-5.31%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)11.07%
Revenue growth 3Y19.63%
Revenue growth 5Y15.51%
Sales Q2Q%8.75%
3.2 Future
CHDN is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 11.77% yearly.
CHDN is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 5.73% yearly.
EPS Next Y9.83%
EPS Next 2Y12.55%
EPS Next 3Y11.77%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year7.29%
Revenue Next 2Y6.35%
Revenue Next 3Y5.73%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 15.18 indicates a correct valuation of CHDN.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, CHDN is valued a bit cheaper than 72.06% of the companies in the same industry.
CHDN is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 28.64, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 11.86, which indicates a very decent valuation of CHDN.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, CHDN is valued cheaply inside the industry as 80.15% of the companies are valued more expensively.
CHDN's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 21.44.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15.18 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.86 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of CHDN is on the same level as its industry peers.
CHDN's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 28.92 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.84 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
CHDN's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
CHDN has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)1.54
PEG (5Y)2.24
EPS Next 2Y12.55%
EPS Next 3Y11.77%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
CHDN has a yearly dividend return of 0.40%, which is pretty low.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.92, CHDN pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.52, CHDN's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
5.2 History
The dividend of CHDN is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 7.32%!
CHDN has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
CHDN has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.32%
Div Incr Years14
Div Non Decr Years23
5.3 Sustainability
6.89% of the earnings are spent on dividend by CHDN. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of CHDN is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP6.89%
EPS Next 2Y12.55%
EPS Next 3Y11.77%
NASDAQ:CHDN (4/24/2025, 11:35:08 AM)
88.815
-16.23 (-15.45%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners79.7%
Inst Owner Change1.41%
Ins Owners5.41%
Ins Owner Change2.01%
Market Cap6.53B
Analysts84.71
Price Target149.89 (68.77%)
Short Float %2.52%
Short Ratio2.8
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
Yearly Dividend0.39
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.32%
DP6.89%
Div Incr Years14
Div Non Decr Years23
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-7.68%
Min EPS beat(2)-10.31%
Max EPS beat(2)-5.06%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)5.84%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.31%
Max EPS beat(4)34.09%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)3.54%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)4.19%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)6.09%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.62%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.94%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.31%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.21%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.94%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.37%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.48%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.63%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.22%
PT rev (1m)-0.17%
PT rev (3m)-2.17%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-6.92%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-18.37%
EPS NY rev (1m)-9.31%
EPS NY rev (3m)-10.56%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.73%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.68%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.13%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.73%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15.18 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.86 | ||
| P/S | 2.39 | ||
| P/FCF | 28.92 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.45 | ||
| P/B | 6.02 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.84 |
EPS(TTM)5.85
EY6.59%
EPS(NY)7.49
Fwd EY8.43%
FCF(TTM)3.07
FCFY3.46%
OCF(TTM)10.51
OCFY11.84%
SpS37.21
BVpS14.74
TBVpS-30.28
PEG (NY)1.54
PEG (5Y)2.24
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.82% | ||
| ROE | 39.11% | ||
| ROCE | 10.7% | ||
| ROIC | 7.98% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.2% | ||
| ROICexgc | 17.07% | ||
| OM | 25.63% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.5% | ||
| GM | 34.87% | ||
| FCFM | 8.25% |
ROA(3y)6.3%
ROA(5y)4.84%
ROE(3y)55.16%
ROE(5y)44.87%
ROIC(3y)6.83%
ROIC(5y)6.39%
ROICexc(3y)7%
ROICexc(5y)6.74%
ROICexgc(3y)15.35%
ROICexgc(5y)12.91%
ROCE(3y)9.16%
ROCE(5y)8.57%
ROICexcg growth 3Y5.55%
ROICexcg growth 5Y7.97%
ROICexc growth 3Y-6.37%
ROICexc growth 5Y1.4%
OM growth 3Y10%
OM growth 5Y9.05%
PM growth 3Y-0.21%
PM growth 5Y8.43%
GM growth 3Y3.21%
GM growth 5Y1.43%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.38
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 21.74 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.38 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 274.74% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 20.01% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.28 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 85.87% | ||
| Profit Quality | 53.26% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.57 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.57 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.6 |
F-Score8
WACC8.47%
ROIC/WACC0.94
Cap/Depr(3y)358.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)283.57%
Cap/Sales(3y)24.24%
Cap/Sales(5y)20.14%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)14.71%
EPS 3Y-3.17%
EPS 5Y6.77%
EPS Q2Q%-5.31%
EPS Next Y9.83%
EPS Next 2Y12.55%
EPS Next 3Y11.77%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)11.07%
Revenue growth 3Y19.63%
Revenue growth 5Y15.51%
Sales Q2Q%8.75%
Revenue Next Year7.29%
Revenue Next 2Y6.35%
Revenue Next 3Y5.73%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y18.1%
EBIT growth 3Y31.58%
EBIT growth 5Y25.96%
EBIT Next Year70.23%
EBIT Next 3Y24.98%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y419.24%
FCF growth 3Y-2.53%
FCF growth 5Y12.31%
OCF growth 1Y27.55%
OCF growth 3Y32.06%
OCF growth 5Y21.69%