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CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC (CF) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:CF - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US1252691001 - Common Stock

97.01  -0.24 (-0.25%)

After market: 97.01 0 (0%)

Fundamental Rating

7

Overall CF gets a fundamental rating of 7 out of 10. We evaluated CF against 85 industry peers in the Chemicals industry. CF has outstanding health and profitabily ratings, belonging to the best of the industry. This is a solid base for any company. CF has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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9

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

CF had positive earnings in the past year.
CF had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years CF has been profitable.
CF had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
CF Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFCF Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2B 4B

1.2 Ratios

With an excellent Return On Assets value of 8.41%, CF belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 90.36% of the companies in the same industry.
CF has a Return On Equity of 22.41%. This is amongst the best in the industry. CF outperforms 91.57% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of CF (10.58%) is better than 90.36% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for CF is significantly above the industry average of 6.59%.
The 3 year average ROIC (21.67%) for CF is well above the current ROIC(10.58%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 8.41%
ROE 22.41%
ROIC 10.58%
ROA(3y)14.38%
ROA(5y)9.97%
ROE(3y)40.51%
ROE(5y)29.88%
ROIC(3y)21.67%
ROIC(5y)15.19%
CF Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICCF Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20 40 60

1.3 Margins

The Profit Margin of CF (19.46%) is better than 97.59% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of CF has grown nicely.
CF has a Operating Margin of 28.53%. This is amongst the best in the industry. CF outperforms 93.98% of its industry peers.
CF's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
CF has a Gross Margin of 33.98%. This is in the better half of the industry: CF outperforms 67.47% of its industry peers.
CF's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 28.53%
PM (TTM) 19.46%
GM 33.98%
OM growth 3Y30.93%
OM growth 5Y15.81%
PM growth 3Y44.1%
PM growth 5Y28.56%
GM growth 3Y24.16%
GM growth 5Y13.14%
CF Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsCF Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 10 20 30 40 50

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9

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), CF is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, CF has less shares outstanding
CF has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, CF has an improved debt to assets ratio.
CF Yearly Shares OutstandingCF Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 50M 100M 150M 200M
CF Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsCF Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 5B 10B 15B

2.2 Solvency

An Altman-Z score of 2.63 indicates that CF is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
With a decent Altman-Z score value of 2.63, CF is doing good in the industry, outperforming 75.90% of the companies in the same industry.
CF has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.63. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.63 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of CF (1.63) is better than 90.36% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.57 indicates that CF is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
CF has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.57) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Although CF does not score too well on debt/equity it has very limited outstanding debt, which is well covered by the FCF. We will not put too much weight on the debt/equity number as it may be because of low equity, which could be a consequence of a share buyback program for instance. This needs to be investigated.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.57
Debt/FCF 1.63
Altman-Z 2.63
ROIC/WACC1.25
WACC8.45%
CF Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFCF Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2B 4B

2.3 Liquidity

CF has a Current Ratio of 2.81. This indicates that CF is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
CF's Current ratio of 2.81 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. CF outperforms 75.90% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 2.52 indicates that CF has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of CF (2.52) is better than 86.75% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 2.81
Quick Ratio 2.52
CF Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesCF Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1B 2B 3B

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3

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The earnings per share for CF have decreased strongly by -44.51% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, CF shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 47.09% on average per year.
The Revenue for CF has decreased by -21.97% in the past year. This is quite bad
CF shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 8.41% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-44.51%
EPS 3Y76.69%
EPS 5Y47.09%
EPS Q2Q%17.54%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-21.97%
Revenue growth 3Y17.15%
Revenue growth 5Y8.41%
Sales Q2Q%7.62%

3.2 Future

CF is expected to show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will decrease by -0.27% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, CF will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 0.81% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-25.72%
EPS Next 2Y-15.09%
EPS Next 3Y-10.44%
EPS Next 5Y-0.27%
Revenue Next Year-10.3%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.45%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.28%
Revenue Next 5Y0.81%

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
CF Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesCF Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B
CF Yearly EPS VS EstimatesCF Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 0 5 10 15

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6

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 15.85, the valuation of CF can be described as correct.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, CF is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 72.29% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.96, CF is valued a bit cheaper.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 16.15, the valuation of CF can be described as correct.
CF's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
CF is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 24.11, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 15.85
Fwd PE 16.15
CF Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsCF Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of CF indicates a rather cheap valuation: CF is cheaper than 87.95% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, CF is valued cheaply inside the industry as 87.95% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 9.27
EV/EBITDA 6.62
CF Per share dataCF EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The excellent profitability rating of CF may justify a higher PE ratio.
CF's earnings are expected to decrease with -10.44% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.34
EPS Next 2Y-15.09%
EPS Next 3Y-10.44%

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6

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

CF has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.06%.
CF's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 3.34.
CF's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.29.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.06%

5.2 History

The dividend of CF has a limited annual growth rate of 5.68%.
CF has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
CF has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.68%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years19
CF Yearly Dividends per shareCF Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0.5 1 1.5

5.3 Sustainability

CF pays out 30.41% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP30.41%
EPS Next 2Y-15.09%
EPS Next 3Y-10.44%
CF Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendCF Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 1B -1B 2B 3B
CF Dividend Payout.CF Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.CF Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC

NYSE:CF (1/17/2025, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 97.01 0 (0%)

97.01

-0.24 (-0.25%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryChemicals
Earnings (Last)10-30 2024-10-30/amc
Earnings (Next)02-12 2025-02-12/amc
Inst Owners97.12%
Inst Owner Change-0.25%
Ins Owners0.63%
Ins Owner Change-3.06%
Market Cap16.88B
Analysts71.72
Price Target90.97 (-6.23%)
Short Float %2.51%
Short Ratio2.37
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.06%
Yearly Dividend1.62
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.68%
DP30.41%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years19
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)15.82%
Min EPS beat(2)9.97%
Max EPS beat(2)21.66%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-3.37%
Min EPS beat(4)-42.67%
Max EPS beat(4)21.66%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)2.61%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)-2.49%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)1.99%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.19%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.32%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.7%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.53%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.2%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.7%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.44%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.66%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.86%
PT rev (1m)2.04%
PT rev (3m)5.7%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)5.72%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)4.64%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.13%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.02%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.76%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 15.85
Fwd PE 16.15
P/S 2.82
P/FCF 9.27
P/OCF 7.24
P/B 3.25
P/tB 7.72
EV/EBITDA 6.62
EPS(TTM)6.12
EY6.31%
EPS(NY)6.01
Fwd EY6.19%
FCF(TTM)10.47
FCFY10.79%
OCF(TTM)13.4
OCFY13.81%
SpS34.38
BVpS29.85
TBVpS12.56
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.34
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 8.41%
ROE 22.41%
ROCE 13.3%
ROIC 10.58%
ROICexc 12.39%
ROICexgc 17.08%
OM 28.53%
PM (TTM) 19.46%
GM 33.98%
FCFM 30.45%
ROA(3y)14.38%
ROA(5y)9.97%
ROE(3y)40.51%
ROE(5y)29.88%
ROIC(3y)21.67%
ROIC(5y)15.19%
ROICexc(3y)26.16%
ROICexc(5y)17.97%
ROICexgc(3y)33.79%
ROICexgc(5y)23.22%
ROCE(3y)27.26%
ROCE(5y)19.1%
ROICexcg growth 3Y49.98%
ROICexcg growth 5Y26.41%
ROICexc growth 3Y48.31%
ROICexc growth 5Y24.95%
OM growth 3Y30.93%
OM growth 5Y15.81%
PM growth 3Y44.1%
PM growth 5Y28.56%
GM growth 3Y24.16%
GM growth 5Y13.14%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.43
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.57
Debt/FCF 1.63
Debt/EBITDA 1.13
Cap/Depr 54.56%
Cap/Sales 8.51%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 88.3%
Profit Quality 156.53%
Current Ratio 2.81
Quick Ratio 2.52
Altman-Z 2.63
F-Score5
WACC8.45%
ROIC/WACC1.25
Cap/Depr(3y)56.2%
Cap/Depr(5y)49.88%
Cap/Sales(3y)6.48%
Cap/Sales(5y)7.15%
Profit Quality(3y)169%
Profit Quality(5y)204.23%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-44.51%
EPS 3Y76.69%
EPS 5Y47.09%
EPS Q2Q%17.54%
EPS Next Y-25.72%
EPS Next 2Y-15.09%
EPS Next 3Y-10.44%
EPS Next 5Y-0.27%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-21.97%
Revenue growth 3Y17.15%
Revenue growth 5Y8.41%
Sales Q2Q%7.62%
Revenue Next Year-10.3%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.45%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.28%
Revenue Next 5Y0.81%
EBIT growth 1Y-43.72%
EBIT growth 3Y53.39%
EBIT growth 5Y25.55%
EBIT Next Year7.21%
EBIT Next 3Y0.81%
EBIT Next 5Y5.87%
FCF growth 1Y-57.62%
FCF growth 3Y34.79%
FCF growth 5Y16%
OCF growth 1Y-50.93%
OCF growth 3Y30.84%
OCF growth 5Y12.99%