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CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC (CF) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:CF - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US1252691001 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

80.26  -3.55 (-4.24%)

After market: 80.26 0 (0%)

Fundamental Rating

7

We assign a fundamental rating of 7 out of 10 to CF. CF was compared to 85 industry peers in the Chemicals industry. CF scores excellent points on both the profitability and health parts. This is a solid base for a good stock. CF has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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9

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

CF had positive earnings in the past year.
CF had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
CF had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
CF had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
CF Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFCF Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2B 4B

1.2 Ratios

CF has a Return On Assets of 8.41%. This is amongst the best in the industry. CF outperforms 90.36% of its industry peers.
CF has a better Return On Equity (22.41%) than 91.57% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 10.58%, CF belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 90.36% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for CF is significantly above the industry average of 6.61%.
The 3 year average ROIC (21.67%) for CF is well above the current ROIC(10.58%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 8.41%
ROE 22.41%
ROIC 10.58%
ROA(3y)14.38%
ROA(5y)9.97%
ROE(3y)40.51%
ROE(5y)29.88%
ROIC(3y)21.67%
ROIC(5y)15.19%
CF Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICCF Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20 40 60

1.3 Margins

The Profit Margin of CF (19.46%) is better than 96.39% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of CF has grown nicely.
CF has a Operating Margin of 28.53%. This is amongst the best in the industry. CF outperforms 93.98% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of CF has grown nicely.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 33.98%, CF is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 66.27% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of CF has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 28.53%
PM (TTM) 19.46%
GM 33.98%
OM growth 3Y30.93%
OM growth 5Y15.81%
PM growth 3Y44.1%
PM growth 5Y28.56%
GM growth 3Y24.16%
GM growth 5Y13.14%
CF Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsCF Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 10 20 30 40 50

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8

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), CF is creating value.
CF has no outstanding debt. Therefor its Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratios are 0 and belong to the best of the industry.
CF Yearly Shares OutstandingCF Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 50M 100M 150M 200M
CF Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsCF Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 5B 10B 15B

2.2 Solvency

An Altman-Z score of 2.43 indicates that CF is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
CF's Altman-Z score of 2.43 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. CF outperforms 66.27% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of CF is 1.63, which is an excellent value as it means it would take CF, only 1.63 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 1.63, CF belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 90.36% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.57 indicates that CF is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
CF has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.57. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: CF outperforms 51.81% of its industry peers.
Although CF does not score too well on debt/equity it has very limited outstanding debt, which is well covered by the FCF. We will not put too much weight on the debt/equity number as it may be because of low equity, which could be a consequence of a share buyback program for instance. This needs to be investigated.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.57
Debt/FCF 1.63
Altman-Z 2.43
ROIC/WACC1.2
WACC8.81%
CF Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFCF Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2B 4B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 2.81 indicates that CF has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
CF's Current ratio of 2.81 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. CF outperforms 77.11% of its industry peers.
CF has a Quick Ratio of 2.52. This indicates that CF is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
CF has a better Quick ratio (2.52) than 86.75% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 2.81
Quick Ratio 2.52
CF Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesCF Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1B 2B 3B

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2

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The earnings per share for CF have decreased strongly by -22.81% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, CF shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 25.20% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-22.81%
EPS 3Y14.44%
EPS 5Y25.2%
EPS Q2Q%19.62%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%-2.99%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 5.11% on average over the next years.
Based on estimates for the next years, CF will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 3.74% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-7.83%
EPS Next 2Y-5.25%
EPS Next 3Y-3.23%
EPS Next 5Y5.11%
Revenue Next Year1.84%
Revenue Next 2Y1.68%
Revenue Next 3Y2.48%
Revenue Next 5Y3.74%

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
CF Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesCF Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B
CF Yearly EPS VS EstimatesCF Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 0 5 10 15

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6

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

A Price/Earnings ratio of 12.48 indicates a correct valuation of CF.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, CF is valued cheaply inside the industry as 80.72% of the companies are valued more expensively.
CF is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 30.30, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 13.54, which indicates a correct valuation of CF.
CF's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. CF is cheaper than 71.08% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 23.06. CF is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 12.48
Fwd PE 13.54
CF Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsCF Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

CF's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. CF is cheaper than 92.77% of the companies in the same industry.
90.36% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than CF, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 7.67
EV/EBITDA 5.51
CF Per share dataCF EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The excellent profitability rating of CF may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as CF's earnings are expected to decrease with -3.23% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.5
EPS Next 2Y-5.25%
EPS Next 3Y-3.23%

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6

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

CF has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.39%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.27, CF pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.29, CF has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.39%

5.2 History

The dividend of CF has a limited annual growth rate of 5.68%.
CF has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
CF has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.68%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years19
CF Yearly Dividends per shareCF Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0.5 1 1.5

5.3 Sustainability

CF pays out 30.41% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of CF is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP30.41%
EPS Next 2Y-5.25%
EPS Next 3Y-3.23%
CF Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendCF Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 1B -1B 2B 3B
CF Dividend Payout.CF Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.CF Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC

NYSE:CF (2/20/2025, 8:05:06 PM)

After market: 80.26 0 (0%)

80.26

-3.55 (-4.24%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryChemicals
Earnings (Last)02-19 2025-02-19/amc
Earnings (Next)05-07 2025-05-07/amc
Inst Owners97.12%
Inst Owner Change0.07%
Ins Owners0.63%
Ins Owner Change-3.93%
Market Cap13.97B
Analysts70.34
Price Target94.83 (18.15%)
Short Float %3.12%
Short Ratio2.56
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.39%
Yearly Dividend1.62
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.68%
DP30.41%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years19
Ex-Date02-14 2025-02-14 (0.5)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)15.82%
Min EPS beat(2)9.97%
Max EPS beat(2)21.66%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-3.37%
Min EPS beat(4)-42.67%
Max EPS beat(4)21.66%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)2.61%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)-2.49%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)1.99%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.19%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.32%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.7%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.53%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.2%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.7%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.44%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.66%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.86%
PT rev (1m)4.07%
PT rev (3m)7.8%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-5.48%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-7.49%
EPS NY rev (1m)3.18%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.38%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.39%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.39%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.02%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 12.48
Fwd PE 13.54
P/S 2.33
P/FCF 7.67
P/OCF 5.99
P/B 2.69
P/tB 6.39
EV/EBITDA 5.51
EPS(TTM)6.43
EY8.01%
EPS(NY)5.93
Fwd EY7.38%
FCF(TTM)10.47
FCFY13.05%
OCF(TTM)13.4
OCFY16.69%
SpS34.38
BVpS29.85
TBVpS12.56
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.5
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 8.41%
ROE 22.41%
ROCE 13.3%
ROIC 10.58%
ROICexc 12.39%
ROICexgc 17.08%
OM 28.53%
PM (TTM) 19.46%
GM 33.98%
FCFM 30.45%
ROA(3y)14.38%
ROA(5y)9.97%
ROE(3y)40.51%
ROE(5y)29.88%
ROIC(3y)21.67%
ROIC(5y)15.19%
ROICexc(3y)26.16%
ROICexc(5y)17.97%
ROICexgc(3y)33.79%
ROICexgc(5y)23.22%
ROCE(3y)27.26%
ROCE(5y)19.1%
ROICexcg growth 3Y49.98%
ROICexcg growth 5Y26.41%
ROICexc growth 3Y48.31%
ROICexc growth 5Y24.95%
OM growth 3Y30.93%
OM growth 5Y15.81%
PM growth 3Y44.1%
PM growth 5Y28.56%
GM growth 3Y24.16%
GM growth 5Y13.14%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.43
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.57
Debt/FCF 1.63
Debt/EBITDA 1.13
Cap/Depr 54.56%
Cap/Sales 8.51%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 88.3%
Profit Quality 156.53%
Current Ratio 2.81
Quick Ratio 2.52
Altman-Z 2.43
F-Score5
WACC8.81%
ROIC/WACC1.2
Cap/Depr(3y)56.2%
Cap/Depr(5y)49.88%
Cap/Sales(3y)6.48%
Cap/Sales(5y)7.15%
Profit Quality(3y)169%
Profit Quality(5y)204.23%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-22.81%
EPS 3Y14.44%
EPS 5Y25.2%
EPS Q2Q%19.62%
EPS Next Y-7.83%
EPS Next 2Y-5.25%
EPS Next 3Y-3.23%
EPS Next 5Y5.11%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%-2.99%
Revenue Next Year1.84%
Revenue Next 2Y1.68%
Revenue Next 3Y2.48%
Revenue Next 5Y3.74%
EBIT growth 1Y-43.72%
EBIT growth 3Y53.39%
EBIT growth 5Y25.55%
EBIT Next Year7.21%
EBIT Next 3Y0.34%
EBIT Next 5Y5.87%
FCF growth 1Y-57.62%
FCF growth 3Y34.79%
FCF growth 5Y16%
OCF growth 1Y-50.93%
OCF growth 3Y30.84%
OCF growth 5Y12.99%