CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC (CF) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:CF • US1252691001

Current stock price

124.9 USD
-0.66 (-0.53%)
At close:
120.5 USD
-4.4 (-3.52%)
After Hours:

This CF fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

10

1. CF Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • CF had positive earnings in the past year.
  • In the past year CF had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • CF had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
  • In the past 5 years CF always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
CF Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFCF Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2B 4B

1.2 Ratios

  • Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 10.33%, CF belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 97.59% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Return On Equity of CF (30.07%) is better than 97.59% of its industry peers.
  • CF has a Return On Invested Capital of 14.76%. This is amongst the best in the industry. CF outperforms 96.39% of its industry peers.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for CF is significantly above the industry average of 6.51%.
  • The 3 year average ROIC (13.07%) for CF is below the current ROIC(14.76%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 10.33%
ROE 30.07%
ROIC 14.76%
ROA(3y)9.99%
ROA(5y)12.5%
ROE(3y)27.06%
ROE(5y)35.21%
ROIC(3y)13.07%
ROIC(5y)18.54%
CF Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICCF Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 40 60

1.3 Margins

  • CF has a better Profit Margin (20.54%) than 100.00% of its industry peers.
  • CF's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • CF has a better Operating Margin (33.53%) than 96.39% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of CF has grown nicely.
  • CF's Gross Margin of 38.45% is amongst the best of the industry. CF outperforms 80.72% of its industry peers.
  • CF's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 33.53%
PM (TTM) 20.54%
GM 38.45%
OM growth 3Y-12.88%
OM growth 5Y16.83%
PM growth 3Y-11.78%
PM growth 5Y21.72%
GM growth 3Y-9.8%
GM growth 5Y13.91%
CF Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsCF Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 20 30 40 50

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8

2. CF Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so CF is still creating some value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, CF has less shares outstanding
  • Compared to 5 years ago, CF has less shares outstanding
  • CF has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
CF Yearly Shares OutstandingCF Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 50M 100M 150M 200M
CF Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsCF Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5B 10B 15B

2.2 Solvency

  • CF has an Altman-Z score of 2.87. This is not the best score and indicates that CF is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 2.87, CF is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 79.52% of the companies in the same industry.
  • CF has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.78. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.78 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of CF (1.78) is better than 95.18% of its industry peers.
  • CF has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.66. This is a neutral value indicating CF is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
  • CF has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.66) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • Although CF's pure debt/equity ratio does not look good, it has limited outstanding debt compared to the Free Cash Flow. We will not put too much weight on the debt/equity number as it may be because of low equity, which could be a consequence of a share buyback program for instance. This needs to be investigated.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.66
Debt/FCF 1.78
Altman-Z 2.87
ROIC/WACC1.77
WACC8.32%
CF Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFCF Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2B 4B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 3.37 indicates that CF has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 3.37, CF belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 86.75% of the companies in the same industry.
  • CF has a Quick Ratio of 2.93. This indicates that CF is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
  • With an excellent Quick ratio value of 2.93, CF belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 90.36% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 3.37
Quick Ratio 2.93
CF Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesCF Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

5

3. CF Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 54.03% over the past year.
  • Measured over the past years, CF shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 45.21% on average per year.
  • The Revenue has grown by 19.34% in the past year. This is quite good.
  • CF shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 11.43% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)54.03%
EPS 3Y-16.83%
EPS 5Y45.21%
EPS Q2Q%78.77%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)19.34%
Revenue growth 3Y-14.12%
Revenue growth 5Y11.43%
Sales Q2Q%22.83%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -1.18% on average over the next years.
  • CF is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 0.91% yearly.
EPS Next Y-7.58%
EPS Next 2Y-12.91%
EPS Next 3Y-8.08%
EPS Next 5Y-1.18%
Revenue Next Year-6.7%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.7%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.64%
Revenue Next 5Y0.91%

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
CF Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesCF Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B
CF Yearly EPS VS EstimatesCF Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 0 5 10 15

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6

4. CF Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • The Price/Earnings ratio is 12.81, which indicates a correct valuation of CF.
  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, CF is valued cheaply inside the industry as 80.72% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • CF is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 25.23, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.86, the valuation of CF can be described as correct.
  • 65.06% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than CF, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.42. CF is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 12.81
Fwd PE 13.86
CF Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsCF Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, CF is valued cheaply inside the industry as 89.16% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • 86.75% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than CF, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 10.65
EV/EBITDA 5.91
CF Per share dataCF EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30 40

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • CF has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • A cheap valuation may be justified as CF's earnings are expected to decrease with -8.08% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.28
EPS Next 2Y-12.91%
EPS Next 3Y-8.08%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

6

5. CF Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • CF has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.59%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.12, CF has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
  • CF's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 1.89.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.59%

5.2 History

  • The dividend of CF is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 10.93%!
  • CF has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • CF has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.93%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years19
CF Yearly Dividends per shareCF Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.5 1 1.5

5.3 Sustainability

  • 22.41% of the earnings are spent on dividend by CF. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP22.41%
EPS Next 2Y-12.91%
EPS Next 3Y-8.08%
CF Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendCF Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1B -1B 2B 3B
CF Dividend Payout.CF Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.CF Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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CF Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC

NYSE:CF (3/20/2026, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 120.5 -4.4 (-3.52%)

124.9

-0.66 (-0.53%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryChemicals
Earnings (Last)02-18
Earnings (Next)05-06
Inst Owners106.44%
Inst Owner Change0.47%
Ins Owners0.7%
Ins Owner Change-40.44%
Market Cap19.19B
Revenue(TTM)7.08B
Net Income(TTM)1.46B
Analysts68
Price Target98.25 (-21.34%)
Short Float %7.11%
Short Ratio3.11
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.59%
Yearly Dividend2.02
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.93%
DP22.41%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years19
Ex-Date02-13
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)12.83%
Min EPS beat(2)0.72%
Max EPS beat(2)24.94%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)10.98%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.26%
Max EPS beat(4)28.54%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)5.77%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)6.79%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)2.36%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.14%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.35%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.07%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.97%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.35%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.52%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.83%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.48%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.45%
PT rev (1m)3.56%
PT rev (3m)3.07%
EPS NQ rev (1m)16.62%
EPS NQ rev (3m)16.65%
EPS NY rev (1m)20.67%
EPS NY rev (3m)23.97%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)4.7%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)4.58%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.86%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.18%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 12.81
Fwd PE 13.86
P/S 2.71
P/FCF 10.65
P/OCF 6.97
P/B 3.97
P/tB 10.25
EV/EBITDA 5.91
EPS(TTM)9.75
EY7.81%
EPS(NY)9.01
Fwd EY7.21%
FCF(TTM)11.73
FCFY9.39%
OCF(TTM)17.91
OCFY14.34%
SpS46.1
BVpS31.48
TBVpS12.18
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.28
Graham Number83.11
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 10.33%
ROE 30.07%
ROCE 17.99%
ROIC 14.76%
ROICexc 17.37%
ROICexgc 23.62%
OM 33.53%
PM (TTM) 20.54%
GM 38.45%
FCFM 25.44%
ROA(3y)9.99%
ROA(5y)12.5%
ROE(3y)27.06%
ROE(5y)35.21%
ROIC(3y)13.07%
ROIC(5y)18.54%
ROICexc(3y)15.27%
ROICexc(5y)22.16%
ROICexgc(3y)20.8%
ROICexgc(5y)29.06%
ROCE(3y)15.93%
ROCE(5y)22.59%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-26.29%
ROICexgc growth 5Y29.23%
ROICexc growth 3Y-28.01%
ROICexc growth 5Y28.31%
OM growth 3Y-12.88%
OM growth 5Y16.83%
PM growth 3Y-11.78%
PM growth 5Y21.72%
GM growth 3Y-9.8%
GM growth 5Y13.91%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.5
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.66
Debt/FCF 1.78
Debt/EBITDA 0.98
Cap/Depr 105.79%
Cap/Sales 13.41%
Interest Coverage 17.34
Cash Conversion 84.08%
Profit Quality 123.85%
Current Ratio 3.37
Quick Ratio 2.93
Altman-Z 2.87
F-Score8
WACC8.32%
ROIC/WACC1.77
Cap/Depr(3y)73.07%
Cap/Depr(5y)66.08%
Cap/Sales(3y)9.89%
Cap/Sales(5y)8.31%
Profit Quality(3y)138.61%
Profit Quality(5y)154.95%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)54.03%
EPS 3Y-16.83%
EPS 5Y45.21%
EPS Q2Q%78.77%
EPS Next Y-7.58%
EPS Next 2Y-12.91%
EPS Next 3Y-8.08%
EPS Next 5Y-1.18%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)19.34%
Revenue growth 3Y-14.12%
Revenue growth 5Y11.43%
Sales Q2Q%22.83%
Revenue Next Year-6.7%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.7%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.64%
Revenue Next 5Y0.91%
EBIT growth 1Y38.81%
EBIT growth 3Y-25.18%
EBIT growth 5Y30.18%
EBIT Next Year15.44%
EBIT Next 3Y1.47%
EBIT Next 5Y3.5%
FCF growth 1Y2.8%
FCF growth 3Y-19.09%
FCF growth 5Y14.34%
OCF growth 1Y21.18%
OCF growth 3Y-10.63%
OCF growth 5Y17.46%

CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC / CF Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC (CF) stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 7 / 10 to CF.


What is the valuation status of CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC (CF) stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC (CF). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC (CF) stock?

CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC (CF) has a profitability rating of 10 / 10.


What are the PE and PB ratios of CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC (CF) stock?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC (CF) is 12.81 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 3.97.


Can you provide the expected EPS growth for CF stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC (CF) is expected to decline by -7.58% in the next year.