CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC (CF) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:CF - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US1252691001 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall CF gets a fundamental rating of 7 out of 10. We evaluated CF against 85 industry peers in the Chemicals industry. CF has outstanding health and profitabily ratings, belonging to the best of the industry. This is a solid base for any company. CF has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year CF was profitable.
In the past year CF had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years CF has been profitable.
In the past 5 years CF always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
CF's Return On Assets of 9.05% is amongst the best of the industry. CF outperforms 91.67% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 24.43%, CF belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 96.43% of the companies in the same industry.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 11.20%, CF belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 88.10% of the companies in the same industry.
CF had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 20.79%. This is significantly above the industry average of 7.01%.
The 3 year average ROIC (20.79%) for CF is well above the current ROIC(11.20%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.05% | ||
| ROE | 24.43% | ||
| ROIC | 11.2% |
ROA(3y)14.93%
ROA(5y)10.97%
ROE(3y)39.12%
ROE(5y)31.36%
ROIC(3y)20.79%
ROIC(5y)16.71%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 20.52%, CF belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 98.81% of the companies in the same industry.
CF's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
CF's Operating Margin of 28.82% is amongst the best of the industry. CF outperforms 95.24% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of CF has grown nicely.
The Gross Margin of CF (34.64%) is better than 69.05% of its industry peers.
CF's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 28.82% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 20.52% | ||
| GM | 34.64% |
OM growth 3Y-4.8%
OM growth 5Y7.21%
PM growth 3Y13.52%
PM growth 5Y13.82%
GM growth 3Y-1.74%
GM growth 5Y6.25%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
CF has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, CF has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for CF has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for CF is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.31 indicates that CF is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 2.31, CF is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 70.24% of the companies in the same industry.
CF has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.69. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.69 years to pay back of all of its debts.
CF's Debt to FCF ratio of 1.69 is amongst the best of the industry. CF outperforms 91.67% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.60 indicates that CF is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
CF has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.60) which is in line with its industry peers.
Although CF does not score too well on debt/equity it has very limited outstanding debt, which is well covered by the FCF. We will not put too much weight on the debt/equity number as it may be because of low equity, which could be a consequence of a share buyback program for instance. This needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.6 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.69 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.31 |
ROIC/WACC1.36
WACC8.24%
2.3 Liquidity
CF has a Current Ratio of 3.08. This indicates that CF is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
CF has a better Current ratio (3.08) than 85.71% of its industry peers.
CF has a Quick Ratio of 2.70. This indicates that CF is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 2.70, CF belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 89.29% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 3.08 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.7 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
CF shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -24.01%.
CF shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 24.81% yearly.
CF shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -10.48%.
Measured over the past years, CF shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 5.28% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-24.01%
EPS 3Y13.85%
EPS 5Y24.81%
EPS Q2Q%13.29%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-10.48%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.17%
Revenue growth 5Y5.28%
Sales Q2Q%-2.99%
3.2 Future
CF is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 3.30% yearly.
CF is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 1.22% yearly.
EPS Next Y-10.04%
EPS Next 2Y-4.64%
EPS Next 3Y-2.62%
EPS Next 5Y3.3%
Revenue Next Year3.9%
Revenue Next 2Y1.67%
Revenue Next 3Y1.04%
Revenue Next 5Y1.22%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
CF is valuated reasonably with a Price/Earnings ratio of 11.83.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, CF is valued a bit cheaper than 71.43% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of CF to the average of the S&P500 Index (28.29), we can say CF is valued rather cheaply.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.15 indicates a correct valuation of CF.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of CF indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: CF is cheaper than 61.90% of the companies listed in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of CF to the average of the S&P500 Index (21.08), we can say CF is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.83 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.15 |
4.2 Price Multiples
CF's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. CF is cheaper than 90.48% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, CF is valued cheaply inside the industry as 86.90% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 7.11 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.05 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
CF has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
CF's earnings are expected to decrease with -2.62% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.48
EPS Next 2Y-4.64%
EPS Next 3Y-2.62%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.86%, CF has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
In the last 3 months the price of CF has falen by -22.79%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
CF's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 4.02.
CF's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.52.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.86% |
5.2 History
The dividend of CF is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 10.99%!
CF has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
CF has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.99%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years19
5.3 Sustainability
29.89% of the earnings are spent on dividend by CF. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of CF is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP29.89%
EPS Next 2Y-4.64%
EPS Next 3Y-2.62%
74.9
+0.8 (+1.08%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryChemicals
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners96.99%
Inst Owner Change0.06%
Ins Owners0.69%
Ins Owner Change0.85%
Market Cap12.47B
Analysts71.33
Price Target92.36 (23.31%)
Short Float %3.98%
Short Ratio2.49
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.86% |
Yearly Dividend2.03
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.99%
DP29.89%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years19
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)11.61%
Min EPS beat(2)9.97%
Max EPS beat(2)13.26%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)0.55%
Min EPS beat(4)-42.67%
Max EPS beat(4)21.66%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)4.69%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)-0.51%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-13.21%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.64%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.42%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.7%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.31%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.2%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.7%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.27%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.26%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.3%
PT rev (1m)-0.58%
PT rev (3m)1.53%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-5.35%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-3.13%
EPS NY rev (1m)-3.91%
EPS NY rev (3m)-5.17%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.51%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)2.67%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.03%
Revenue NY rev (3m)2.09%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.83 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.15 | ||
| P/S | 2.1 | ||
| P/FCF | 7.11 | ||
| P/OCF | 5.49 | ||
| P/B | 2.5 | ||
| P/tB | 6.28 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.05 |
EPS(TTM)6.33
EY8.45%
EPS(NY)5.69
Fwd EY7.6%
FCF(TTM)10.53
FCFY14.06%
OCF(TTM)13.64
OCFY18.21%
SpS35.66
BVpS29.95
TBVpS11.93
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.48
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.05% | ||
| ROE | 24.43% | ||
| ROCE | 13.53% | ||
| ROIC | 11.2% | ||
| ROICexc | 12.84% | ||
| ROICexgc | 17.63% | ||
| OM | 28.82% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 20.52% | ||
| GM | 34.64% | ||
| FCFM | 29.53% |
ROA(3y)14.93%
ROA(5y)10.97%
ROE(3y)39.12%
ROE(5y)31.36%
ROIC(3y)20.79%
ROIC(5y)16.71%
ROICexc(3y)25.05%
ROICexc(5y)19.9%
ROICexgc(3y)32.66%
ROICexgc(5y)25.93%
ROCE(3y)25.11%
ROCE(5y)20.18%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-11.21%
ROICexcg growth 5Y14.8%
ROICexc growth 3Y-12.87%
ROICexc growth 5Y13.25%
OM growth 3Y-4.8%
OM growth 5Y7.21%
PM growth 3Y13.52%
PM growth 5Y13.82%
GM growth 3Y-1.74%
GM growth 5Y6.25%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.44
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.6 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.69 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.13 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 56% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 8.73% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 14.5 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 86.15% | ||
| Profit Quality | 143.92% | ||
| Current Ratio | 3.08 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.7 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.31 |
F-Score4
WACC8.24%
ROIC/WACC1.36
Cap/Depr(3y)55.57%
Cap/Depr(5y)51.85%
Cap/Sales(3y)6.77%
Cap/Sales(5y)7.13%
Profit Quality(3y)131.22%
Profit Quality(5y)188.35%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-24.01%
EPS 3Y13.85%
EPS 5Y24.81%
EPS Q2Q%13.29%
EPS Next Y-10.04%
EPS Next 2Y-4.64%
EPS Next 3Y-2.62%
EPS Next 5Y3.3%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-10.48%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.17%
Revenue growth 5Y5.28%
Sales Q2Q%-2.99%
Revenue Next Year3.9%
Revenue Next 2Y1.67%
Revenue Next 3Y1.04%
Revenue Next 5Y1.22%
EBIT growth 1Y-24.02%
EBIT growth 3Y-7.81%
EBIT growth 5Y12.87%
EBIT Next Year34.4%
EBIT Next 3Y9.3%
EBIT Next 5Y9.21%
FCF growth 1Y-22.36%
FCF growth 3Y-9.42%
FCF growth 5Y9.75%
OCF growth 1Y-17.63%
OCF growth 3Y-7.54%
OCF growth 5Y8.58%