CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NASDAQ:CAKE • US1630721017

Current stock price

55.33 USD
-0.99 (-1.76%)
At close:
55.33 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours:

This CAKE fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

7

1. CAKE Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year CAKE was profitable.
  • CAKE had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • In the past 5 years CAKE has always been profitable.
  • Each year in the past 5 years CAKE had a positive operating cash flow.
CAKE Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFCAKE Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100M -100M 200M -200M 300M

1.2 Ratios

  • Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 4.55%, CAKE is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 65.87% of the companies in the same industry.
  • CAKE's Return On Equity of 34.01% is amongst the best of the industry. CAKE outperforms 86.51% of its industry peers.
  • Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 8.27%, CAKE is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 63.49% of the companies in the same industry.
  • CAKE had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 7.39%. This is below the industry average of 10.65%.
  • The last Return On Invested Capital (8.27%) for CAKE is above the 3 year average (7.39%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.55%
ROE 34.01%
ROIC 8.27%
ROA(3y)4.42%
ROA(5y)3.32%
ROE(3y)33.74%
ROE(5y)26.17%
ROIC(3y)7.39%
ROIC(5y)6.21%
CAKE Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICCAKE Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 -20 -40

1.3 Margins

  • CAKE has a Profit Margin of 3.96%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: CAKE outperforms 54.76% of its industry peers.
  • CAKE's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • With a Operating Margin value of 5.99%, CAKE perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 41.27% of the companies in the same industry.
  • CAKE's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • The Gross Margin of CAKE (78.33%) is better than 91.27% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of CAKE has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 5.99%
PM (TTM) 3.96%
GM 78.33%
OM growth 3Y33.21%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y44.74%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y1.26%
GM growth 5Y0.34%
CAKE Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsCAKE Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 40 60

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3

2. CAKE Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • CAKE has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for CAKE has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
  • CAKE has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, CAKE has a worse debt to assets ratio.
CAKE Yearly Shares OutstandingCAKE Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10M 20M 30M 40M 50M
CAKE Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsCAKE Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B

2.2 Solvency

  • An Altman-Z score of 2.46 indicates that CAKE is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • CAKE has a Altman-Z score of 2.46. This is in the better half of the industry: CAKE outperforms 65.87% of its industry peers.
  • CAKE has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.09. This is a neutral value as CAKE would need 4.09 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • With a decent Debt to FCF ratio value of 4.09, CAKE is doing good in the industry, outperforming 76.98% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.29 is on the high side and indicates that CAKE has dependencies on debt financing.
  • The Debt to Equity ratio of CAKE (1.29) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.29
Debt/FCF 4.09
Altman-Z 2.46
ROIC/WACC1.07
WACC7.74%
CAKE Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFCAKE Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 200M 400M 600M

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 0.59 indicates that CAKE may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • CAKE has a Current ratio of 0.59. This is in the lower half of the industry: CAKE underperforms 77.78% of its industry peers.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.52 indicates that CAKE may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • CAKE has a worse Quick ratio (0.52) than 77.78% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.59
Quick Ratio 0.52
CAKE Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesCAKE Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

5

3. CAKE Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 9.59% over the past year.
  • Measured over the past years, CAKE shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 35.36% on average per year.
  • The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.75% in the past year.
  • The Revenue has been growing by 13.60% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)9.59%
EPS 3Y35.36%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-3.85%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.75%
Revenue growth 3Y4.34%
Revenue growth 5Y13.6%
Sales Q2Q%4.41%

3.2 Future

  • Based on estimates for the next years, CAKE will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 10.23% on average per year.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, CAKE will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 4.64% on average per year.
EPS Next Y9.06%
EPS Next 2Y9.4%
EPS Next 3Y10.23%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year4.43%
Revenue Next 2Y5.52%
Revenue Next 3Y6.07%
Revenue Next 5Y4.64%

3.3 Evolution

  • The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
CAKE Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesCAKE Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 1B 2B 3B 4B
CAKE Yearly EPS VS EstimatesCAKE Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 0 2 4

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5

4. CAKE Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • CAKE is valuated correctly with a Price/Earnings ratio of 14.68.
  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, CAKE is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 76.19% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 25.23, CAKE is valued a bit cheaper.
  • A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.46 indicates a correct valuation of CAKE.
  • CAKE's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. CAKE is cheaper than 75.40% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.51, CAKE is valued a bit cheaper.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 14.68
Fwd PE 13.46
CAKE Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsCAKE Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, CAKE is valued a bit cheaper than 65.08% of the companies in the same industry.
  • 75.40% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than CAKE, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 17.91
EV/EBITDA 9.66
CAKE Per share dataCAKE EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 20 40 60

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • CAKE's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
  • The decent profitability rating of CAKE may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)1.62
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y9.4%
EPS Next 3Y10.23%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

4

5. CAKE Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • CAKE has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.10%.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.09, CAKE pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.90, CAKE has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.1%

5.2 History

  • The dividend of CAKE decreases each year by -0.62%.
  • CAKE has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • CAKE has decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-0.62%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
CAKE Yearly Dividends per shareCAKE Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

5.3 Sustainability

  • 35.16% of the earnings are spent on dividend by CAKE. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP35.16%
EPS Next 2Y9.4%
EPS Next 3Y10.23%
CAKE Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendCAKE Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100M -100M -200M
CAKE Dividend Payout.CAKE Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.CAKE Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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CAKE Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE

NASDAQ:CAKE (3/26/2026, 8:07:49 PM)

After market: 55.33 0 (0%)

55.33

-0.99 (-1.76%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)02-18
Earnings (Next)04-28
Inst Owners115.77%
Inst Owner Change-36.1%
Ins Owners8.31%
Ins Owner Change25.22%
Market Cap2.76B
Revenue(TTM)3.75B
Net Income(TTM)148.43M
Analysts71.72
Price Target66.36 (19.93%)
Short Float %19%
Short Ratio6.18
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.1%
Yearly Dividend1.03
Dividend Growth(5Y)-0.62%
DP35.16%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date03-04
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.72%
Min EPS beat(2)-1.04%
Max EPS beat(2)10.48%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)7.08%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.04%
Max EPS beat(4)12.08%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)9.52%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)6.6%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)-4.96%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.64%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.56%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.72%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.61%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.56%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.72%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.74%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.12%
Revenue beat(16)0
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.21%
PT rev (1m)7.93%
PT rev (3m)9.86%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.65%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-0.93%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.46%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.5%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.15%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.16%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.23%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.25%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 14.68
Fwd PE 13.46
P/S 0.74
P/FCF 17.91
P/OCF 9.16
P/B 6.32
P/tB 14.94
EV/EBITDA 9.66
EPS(TTM)3.77
EY6.81%
EPS(NY)4.11
Fwd EY7.43%
FCF(TTM)3.09
FCFY5.58%
OCF(TTM)6.04
OCFY10.92%
SpS75.25
BVpS8.75
TBVpS3.7
PEG (NY)1.62
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number27.25
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.55%
ROE 34.01%
ROCE 9.04%
ROIC 8.27%
ROICexc 9.05%
ROICexgc 10.18%
OM 5.99%
PM (TTM) 3.96%
GM 78.33%
FCFM 4.11%
ROA(3y)4.42%
ROA(5y)3.32%
ROE(3y)33.74%
ROE(5y)26.17%
ROIC(3y)7.39%
ROIC(5y)6.21%
ROICexc(3y)7.8%
ROICexc(5y)6.6%
ROICexgc(3y)8.8%
ROICexgc(5y)7.48%
ROCE(3y)8.08%
ROCE(5y)6.8%
ROICexgc growth 3Y32.61%
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3Y33.35%
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y33.21%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y44.74%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y1.26%
GM growth 5Y0.34%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover1.15
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.29
Debt/FCF 4.09
Debt/EBITDA 1.68
Cap/Depr 135.06%
Cap/Sales 3.93%
Interest Coverage 25.88
Cash Conversion 90.27%
Profit Quality 103.77%
Current Ratio 0.59
Quick Ratio 0.52
Altman-Z 2.46
F-Score6
WACC7.74%
ROIC/WACC1.07
Cap/Depr(3y)152.9%
Cap/Depr(5y)131.27%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.3%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.72%
Profit Quality(3y)78.76%
Profit Quality(5y)129.17%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)9.59%
EPS 3Y35.36%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-3.85%
EPS Next Y9.06%
EPS Next 2Y9.4%
EPS Next 3Y10.23%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.75%
Revenue growth 3Y4.34%
Revenue growth 5Y13.6%
Sales Q2Q%4.41%
Revenue Next Year4.43%
Revenue Next 2Y5.52%
Revenue Next 3Y6.07%
Revenue Next 5Y4.64%
EBIT growth 1Y15.6%
EBIT growth 3Y38.99%
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year60.08%
EBIT Next 3Y23.54%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y44.07%
FCF growth 3Y46.69%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y12.28%
OCF growth 3Y23%
OCF growth 5Y153.11%

CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE / CAKE Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the fundamental rating for CAKE stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to CAKE.


What is the valuation status for CAKE stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


What is the profitability of CAKE stock?

CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) has a profitability rating of 7 / 10.


What is the valuation of CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE based on its PE and PB ratios?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) is 14.68 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 6.32.


Can you provide the dividend sustainability for CAKE stock?

The dividend rating of CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) is 4 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 35.16%.