CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NASDAQ:CAKE • US1630721017

Current stock price

56.49 USD
+0.24 (+0.43%)
Last:

This CAKE fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

7

1. CAKE Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year CAKE was profitable.
  • In the past year CAKE had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • In the past 5 years CAKE has always been profitable.
  • CAKE had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
CAKE Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFCAKE Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100M -100M 200M -200M 300M

1.2 Ratios

  • With a decent Return On Assets value of 4.55%, CAKE is doing good in the industry, outperforming 66.67% of the companies in the same industry.
  • CAKE has a better Return On Equity (34.01%) than 88.10% of its industry peers.
  • With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 8.27%, CAKE is doing good in the industry, outperforming 64.29% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for CAKE is below the industry average of 10.59%.
  • The 3 year average ROIC (7.39%) for CAKE is below the current ROIC(8.27%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.55%
ROE 34.01%
ROIC 8.27%
ROA(3y)4.42%
ROA(5y)3.32%
ROE(3y)33.74%
ROE(5y)26.17%
ROIC(3y)7.39%
ROIC(5y)6.21%
CAKE Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICCAKE Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 -20 -40

1.3 Margins

  • CAKE has a Profit Margin of 3.96%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: CAKE outperforms 54.76% of its industry peers.
  • CAKE's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • CAKE has a Operating Margin (5.99%) which is in line with its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of CAKE has grown nicely.
  • The Gross Margin of CAKE (78.33%) is better than 91.27% of its industry peers.
  • CAKE's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 5.99%
PM (TTM) 3.96%
GM 78.33%
OM growth 3Y33.21%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y44.74%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y1.26%
GM growth 5Y0.34%
CAKE Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsCAKE Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 40 60

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3

2. CAKE Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • CAKE has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for CAKE has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
  • Compared to 5 years ago, CAKE has more shares outstanding
  • CAKE has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
CAKE Yearly Shares OutstandingCAKE Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10M 20M 30M 40M 50M
CAKE Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsCAKE Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B

2.2 Solvency

  • CAKE has an Altman-Z score of 2.46. This is not the best score and indicates that CAKE is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • With a decent Altman-Z score value of 2.46, CAKE is doing good in the industry, outperforming 69.05% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of CAKE is 4.09, which is a neutral value as it means it would take CAKE, 4.09 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 4.09, CAKE is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 77.78% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.29 is on the high side and indicates that CAKE has dependencies on debt financing.
  • CAKE's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.29 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. CAKE outperforms 53.97% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.29
Debt/FCF 4.09
Altman-Z 2.46
ROIC/WACC1.08
WACC7.65%
CAKE Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFCAKE Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 200M 400M 600M

2.3 Liquidity

  • CAKE has a Current Ratio of 0.59. This is a bad value and indicates that CAKE is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • CAKE's Current ratio of 0.59 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. CAKE is outperformed by 77.78% of its industry peers.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.52 indicates that CAKE may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • CAKE has a worse Quick ratio (0.52) than 77.78% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.59
Quick Ratio 0.52
CAKE Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesCAKE Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

5

3. CAKE Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • CAKE shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 9.59%, which is quite good.
  • The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 35.36% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
  • The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.75% in the past year.
  • The Revenue has been growing by 13.60% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)9.59%
EPS 3Y35.36%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-3.85%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.75%
Revenue growth 3Y4.34%
Revenue growth 5Y13.6%
Sales Q2Q%4.41%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 10.23% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
  • CAKE is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 4.64% yearly.
EPS Next Y9.06%
EPS Next 2Y9.4%
EPS Next 3Y10.23%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year4.43%
Revenue Next 2Y5.51%
Revenue Next 3Y6.07%
Revenue Next 5Y4.64%

3.3 Evolution

  • The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
CAKE Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesCAKE Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 1B 2B 3B 4B
CAKE Yearly EPS VS EstimatesCAKE Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 0 2 4

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5

4. CAKE Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • The Price/Earnings ratio is 14.98, which indicates a correct valuation of CAKE.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of CAKE indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: CAKE is cheaper than 75.40% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of CAKE to the average of the S&P500 Index (25.79), we can say CAKE is valued slightly cheaper.
  • CAKE is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.74.
  • 74.60% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than CAKE, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
  • CAKE is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 23.80, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 14.98
Fwd PE 13.74
CAKE Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsCAKE Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of CAKE indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: CAKE is cheaper than 64.29% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of CAKE indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: CAKE is cheaper than 76.98% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 18.29
EV/EBITDA 9.64
CAKE Per share dataCAKE EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 20 40 60

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • CAKE's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
  • CAKE has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)1.65
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y9.4%
EPS Next 3Y10.23%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

4

5. CAKE Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • CAKE has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.12%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
  • CAKE's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 1.12.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.91, CAKE has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.12%

5.2 History

  • The dividend of CAKE decreases each year by -0.62%.
  • CAKE has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
  • The dividend of CAKE decreased in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-0.62%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
CAKE Yearly Dividends per shareCAKE Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

5.3 Sustainability

  • CAKE pays out 35.16% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP35.16%
EPS Next 2Y9.4%
EPS Next 3Y10.23%
CAKE Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendCAKE Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100M -100M -200M
CAKE Dividend Payout.CAKE Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.CAKE Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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CAKE Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE

NASDAQ:CAKE (3/19/2026, 1:46:46 PM)

56.49

+0.24 (+0.43%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)02-18
Earnings (Next)04-28
Inst Owners115.77%
Inst Owner Change-36.1%
Ins Owners8.31%
Ins Owner Change25.22%
Market Cap2.82B
Revenue(TTM)3.75B
Net Income(TTM)148.43M
Analysts71.72
Price Target66.36 (17.47%)
Short Float %19%
Short Ratio6.18
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.12%
Yearly Dividend1.03
Dividend Growth(5Y)-0.62%
DP35.16%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date03-04
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.72%
Min EPS beat(2)-1.04%
Max EPS beat(2)10.48%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)7.08%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.04%
Max EPS beat(4)12.08%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)9.52%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)6.6%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)-4.96%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.64%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.56%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.72%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.61%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.56%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.72%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.74%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.12%
Revenue beat(16)0
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.21%
PT rev (1m)7.93%
PT rev (3m)9.86%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.65%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-0.93%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.46%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.5%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.12%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.13%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.25%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.25%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 14.98
Fwd PE 13.74
P/S 0.75
P/FCF 18.29
P/OCF 9.35
P/B 6.45
P/tB 15.26
EV/EBITDA 9.64
EPS(TTM)3.77
EY6.67%
EPS(NY)4.11
Fwd EY7.28%
FCF(TTM)3.09
FCFY5.47%
OCF(TTM)6.04
OCFY10.7%
SpS75.25
BVpS8.75
TBVpS3.7
PEG (NY)1.65
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number27.25
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.55%
ROE 34.01%
ROCE 9.04%
ROIC 8.27%
ROICexc 9.05%
ROICexgc 10.18%
OM 5.99%
PM (TTM) 3.96%
GM 78.33%
FCFM 4.11%
ROA(3y)4.42%
ROA(5y)3.32%
ROE(3y)33.74%
ROE(5y)26.17%
ROIC(3y)7.39%
ROIC(5y)6.21%
ROICexc(3y)7.8%
ROICexc(5y)6.6%
ROICexgc(3y)8.8%
ROICexgc(5y)7.48%
ROCE(3y)8.08%
ROCE(5y)6.8%
ROICexgc growth 3Y32.61%
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3Y33.35%
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y33.21%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y44.74%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y1.26%
GM growth 5Y0.34%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover1.15
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.29
Debt/FCF 4.09
Debt/EBITDA 1.68
Cap/Depr 135.06%
Cap/Sales 3.93%
Interest Coverage 25.88
Cash Conversion 90.27%
Profit Quality 103.77%
Current Ratio 0.59
Quick Ratio 0.52
Altman-Z 2.46
F-Score6
WACC7.65%
ROIC/WACC1.08
Cap/Depr(3y)152.9%
Cap/Depr(5y)131.27%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.3%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.72%
Profit Quality(3y)78.76%
Profit Quality(5y)129.17%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)9.59%
EPS 3Y35.36%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-3.85%
EPS Next Y9.06%
EPS Next 2Y9.4%
EPS Next 3Y10.23%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.75%
Revenue growth 3Y4.34%
Revenue growth 5Y13.6%
Sales Q2Q%4.41%
Revenue Next Year4.43%
Revenue Next 2Y5.51%
Revenue Next 3Y6.07%
Revenue Next 5Y4.64%
EBIT growth 1Y15.6%
EBIT growth 3Y38.99%
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year60.08%
EBIT Next 3Y23.54%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y44.07%
FCF growth 3Y46.69%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y12.28%
OCF growth 3Y23%
OCF growth 5Y153.11%

CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE / CAKE Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the fundamental rating for CAKE stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to CAKE.


What is the valuation status for CAKE stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


What is the profitability of CAKE stock?

CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) has a profitability rating of 7 / 10.


What is the valuation of CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE based on its PE and PB ratios?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) is 14.98 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 6.45.


Can you provide the dividend sustainability for CAKE stock?

The dividend rating of CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) is 4 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 35.16%.