CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation
NASDAQ:CAKE • US1630721017
Current stock price
62.68 USD
+2.44 (+4.05%)
At close:
62.6484 USD
-0.03 (-0.05%)
After Hours:
This CAKE fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.
1. CAKE Profitability Analysis
1.1 Basic Checks
- CAKE had positive earnings in the past year.
- In the past year CAKE had a positive cash flow from operations.
- Each year in the past 5 years CAKE has been profitable.
- CAKE had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
- CAKE's Return On Assets of 4.55% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. CAKE outperforms 64.29% of its industry peers.
- CAKE has a better Return On Equity (34.01%) than 86.51% of its industry peers.
- With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 8.27%, CAKE is doing good in the industry, outperforming 62.70% of the companies in the same industry.
- Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for CAKE is below the industry average of 10.55%.
- The 3 year average ROIC (7.39%) for CAKE is below the current ROIC(8.27%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.55% | ||
| ROE | 34.01% | ||
| ROIC | 8.27% |
ROA(3y)4.42%
ROA(5y)3.32%
ROE(3y)33.74%
ROE(5y)26.17%
ROIC(3y)7.39%
ROIC(5y)6.21%
1.3 Margins
- CAKE has a Profit Margin (3.96%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
- In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of CAKE has grown nicely.
- Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 5.99%, CAKE is in line with its industry, outperforming 40.48% of the companies in the same industry.
- In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of CAKE has grown nicely.
- CAKE has a Gross Margin of 78.33%. This is amongst the best in the industry. CAKE outperforms 91.27% of its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of CAKE has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 5.99% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.96% | ||
| GM | 78.33% |
OM growth 3Y33.21%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y44.74%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y1.26%
GM growth 5Y0.34%
2. CAKE Health Analysis
2.1 Basic Checks
- The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so CAKE is still creating some value.
- Compared to 1 year ago, CAKE has less shares outstanding
- CAKE has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
- Compared to 1 year ago, CAKE has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
- CAKE has an Altman-Z score of 2.50. This is not the best score and indicates that CAKE is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
- CAKE has a Altman-Z score of 2.50. This is in the better half of the industry: CAKE outperforms 65.08% of its industry peers.
- CAKE has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.09. This is a neutral value as CAKE would need 4.09 years to pay back of all of its debts.
- CAKE has a Debt to FCF ratio of 4.09. This is in the better half of the industry: CAKE outperforms 78.57% of its industry peers.
- A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.29 is on the high side and indicates that CAKE has dependencies on debt financing.
- CAKE's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.29 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. CAKE outperforms 53.97% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.29 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.09 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.5 |
ROIC/WACC1.05
WACC7.85%
2.3 Liquidity
- CAKE has a Current Ratio of 0.59. This is a bad value and indicates that CAKE is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
- CAKE has a Current ratio of 0.59. This is in the lower half of the industry: CAKE underperforms 78.57% of its industry peers.
- A Quick Ratio of 0.52 indicates that CAKE may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
- CAKE has a Quick ratio of 0.52. This is in the lower half of the industry: CAKE underperforms 78.57% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.59 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.52 |
3. CAKE Growth Analysis
3.1 Past
- CAKE shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 9.59%, which is quite good.
- Measured over the past years, CAKE shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 35.36% on average per year.
- CAKE shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 4.75%.
- Measured over the past years, CAKE shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 13.60% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)9.59%
EPS 3Y35.36%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-3.85%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.75%
Revenue growth 3Y4.34%
Revenue growth 5Y13.6%
Sales Q2Q%4.41%
3.2 Future
- The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 10.23% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
- The Revenue is expected to grow by 4.64% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y9.13%
EPS Next 2Y9.41%
EPS Next 3Y10.23%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year4.43%
Revenue Next 2Y5.54%
Revenue Next 3Y6.07%
Revenue Next 5Y4.64%
3.3 Evolution
- The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
- The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. CAKE Valuation Analysis
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- A Price/Earnings ratio of 16.63 indicates a correct valuation of CAKE.
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of CAKE indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: CAKE is cheaper than 76.98% of the companies listed in the same industry.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.87, CAKE is valued a bit cheaper.
- A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.23 indicates a correct valuation of CAKE.
- Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, CAKE is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 76.19% of the companies are valued more expensively.
- The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 38.51. CAKE is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.63 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.23 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of CAKE indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: CAKE is cheaper than 61.90% of the companies listed in the same industry.
- Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, CAKE is valued a bit cheaper than 73.81% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 20.29 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.24 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates CAKE does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
- The decent profitability rating of CAKE may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)1.82
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y9.41%
EPS Next 3Y10.23%
5. CAKE Dividend Analysis
5.1 Amount
- With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.99%, CAKE has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
- CAKE's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 1.09. CAKE pays more dividend than 80.16% of the companies in the same industry.
- CAKE's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 1.82.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.99% |
5.2 History
- The dividend of CAKE decreases each year by -0.62%.
- CAKE has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
- CAKE has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-0.62%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
- 35.16% of the earnings are spent on dividend by CAKE. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP35.16%
EPS Next 2Y9.41%
EPS Next 3Y10.23%
CAKE Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics
62.68
+2.44 (+4.05%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)02-18 2026-02-18/amc
Earnings (Next)04-29 2026-04-29/amc
Inst Owners115.83%
Inst Owner Change0.01%
Ins Owners8.29%
Ins Owner Change26.23%
Market Cap3.12B
Revenue(TTM)3.75B
Net Income(TTM)148.43M
Analysts71.72
Price Target66.12 (5.49%)
Short Float %17.33%
Short Ratio5.89
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.99% |
Yearly Dividend1.03
Dividend Growth(5Y)-0.62%
DP35.16%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date03-04 2026-03-04 (0.3)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.72%
Min EPS beat(2)-1.04%
Max EPS beat(2)10.48%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)7.08%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.04%
Max EPS beat(4)12.08%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)9.52%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)6.6%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)-4.96%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.64%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.56%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.72%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.61%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.56%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.72%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.74%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.12%
Revenue beat(16)0
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.21%
PT rev (1m)-0.36%
PT rev (3m)9.77%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-0.65%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.06%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.56%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.03%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.14%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.25%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.63 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.23 | ||
| P/S | 0.83 | ||
| P/FCF | 20.29 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.37 | ||
| P/B | 7.16 | ||
| P/tB | 16.93 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.24 |
EPS(TTM)3.77
EY6.01%
EPS(NY)4.11
Fwd EY6.56%
FCF(TTM)3.09
FCFY4.93%
OCF(TTM)6.04
OCFY9.64%
SpS75.25
BVpS8.75
TBVpS3.7
PEG (NY)1.82
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number27.2484 (-56.53%)
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.55% | ||
| ROE | 34.01% | ||
| ROCE | 9.04% | ||
| ROIC | 8.27% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.05% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.18% | ||
| OM | 5.99% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.96% | ||
| GM | 78.33% | ||
| FCFM | 4.11% |
ROA(3y)4.42%
ROA(5y)3.32%
ROE(3y)33.74%
ROE(5y)26.17%
ROIC(3y)7.39%
ROIC(5y)6.21%
ROICexc(3y)7.8%
ROICexc(5y)6.6%
ROICexgc(3y)8.8%
ROICexgc(5y)7.48%
ROCE(3y)8.08%
ROCE(5y)6.8%
ROICexgc growth 3Y32.61%
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3Y33.35%
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y33.21%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y44.74%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y1.26%
GM growth 5Y0.34%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover1.15
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.29 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.09 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.68 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 135.06% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.93% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 25.88 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 90.27% | ||
| Profit Quality | 103.77% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.59 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.5 |
F-Score6
WACC7.85%
ROIC/WACC1.05
Cap/Depr(3y)152.9%
Cap/Depr(5y)131.27%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.3%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.72%
Profit Quality(3y)78.76%
Profit Quality(5y)129.17%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)9.59%
EPS 3Y35.36%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-3.85%
EPS Next Y9.13%
EPS Next 2Y9.41%
EPS Next 3Y10.23%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.75%
Revenue growth 3Y4.34%
Revenue growth 5Y13.6%
Sales Q2Q%4.41%
Revenue Next Year4.43%
Revenue Next 2Y5.54%
Revenue Next 3Y6.07%
Revenue Next 5Y4.64%
EBIT growth 1Y15.6%
EBIT growth 3Y38.99%
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year60.99%
EBIT Next 3Y23.54%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y44.07%
FCF growth 3Y46.69%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y12.28%
OCF growth 3Y23%
OCF growth 5Y153.11%
CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE / CAKE Fundamental Analysis FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for CAKE stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to CAKE.
What is the valuation status for CAKE stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) stock?
CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) has a profitability rating of 7 / 10.
Can you provide the financial health for CAKE stock?
The financial health rating of CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) is 3 / 10.
Can you provide the dividend sustainability for CAKE stock?
The dividend rating of CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 35.16%.