CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NASDAQ:CAKE - US1630721017 - Common Stock
49.11 USD
-1.28 (-2.54%)
50.2997 USD
+1.19 (+2.42%)
Overall CAKE gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. We evaluated CAKE against 133 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. There are concerns on the financial health of CAKE while its profitability can be described as average. CAKE has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
CAKE had positive earnings in the past year.
CAKE had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
CAKE had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
CAKE had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
With a decent Return On Assets value of 5.04%, CAKE is doing good in the industry, outperforming 66.92% of the companies in the same industry.
CAKE's Return On Equity of 39.63% is amongst the best of the industry. CAKE outperforms 87.22% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 6.92%, CAKE is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 60.15% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for CAKE is significantly below the industry average of 10.67%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (6.92%) for CAKE is above the 3 year average (5.05%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.04% | ||
| ROE | 39.63% | ||
| ROIC | 6.92% |
ROA(3y)3.43%
ROA(5y)0.39%
ROE(3y)27.33%
ROE(5y)8.44%
ROIC(3y)5.05%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
CAKE has a Profit Margin of 4.33%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: CAKE outperforms 53.38% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of CAKE has declined.
CAKE has a Operating Margin (5.77%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of CAKE has remained more or less at the same level.
CAKE has a Gross Margin of 77.95%. This is amongst the best in the industry. CAKE outperforms 92.48% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of CAKE has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 5.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.33% | ||
| GM | 77.95% |
OM growth 3Y8.38%
OM growth 5Y1.18%
PM growth 3Y37.68%
PM growth 5Y-3.11%
GM growth 3Y-0.08%
GM growth 5Y0.03%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
CAKE has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
CAKE has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for CAKE has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
CAKE has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
CAKE has an Altman-Z score of 2.41. This is not the best score and indicates that CAKE is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 2.41, CAKE is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 67.67% of the companies in the same industry.
CAKE has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.82. This is a neutral value as CAKE would need 4.82 years to pay back of all of its debts.
CAKE's Debt to FCF ratio of 4.82 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. CAKE outperforms 76.69% of its industry peers.
CAKE has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.40. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of CAKE (1.40) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.4 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.82 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.41 |
ROIC/WACC0.9
WACC7.69%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.51 indicates that CAKE may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.51, CAKE is doing worse than 73.68% of the companies in the same industry.
CAKE has a Quick Ratio of 0.51. This is a bad value and indicates that CAKE is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.42, CAKE is not doing good in the industry: 76.69% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.42 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 19.06% over the past year.
Measured over the past 5 years, CAKE shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 5.68% on average per year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.13% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, CAKE shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 7.61% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)19.06%
EPS 3Y17.14%
EPS 5Y5.68%
EPS Q2Q%17.24%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.13%
Revenue growth 3Y6.95%
Revenue growth 5Y7.61%
Sales Q2Q%4.83%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, CAKE will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 11.56% on average per year.
CAKE is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 4.87% yearly.
EPS Next Y12.08%
EPS Next 2Y11.27%
EPS Next 3Y11.56%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year5.38%
Revenue Next 2Y5.72%
Revenue Next 3Y5.93%
Revenue Next 5Y4.87%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 12.89, the valuation of CAKE can be described as correct.
CAKE's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. CAKE is cheaper than 81.95% of the companies in the same industry.
CAKE is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.19, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.53 indicates a reasonable valuation of CAKE.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, CAKE is valued a bit cheaper than 78.95% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.50. CAKE is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.89 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.53 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of CAKE indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: CAKE is cheaper than 68.42% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, CAKE is valued a bit cheaper than 74.44% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 18.77 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.45 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
CAKE's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
CAKE has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)1.07
PEG (5Y)2.27
EPS Next 2Y11.27%
EPS Next 3Y11.56%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
CAKE has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.99%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
The stock price of CAKE dropped by -21.27% in the last 3 months. With lower prices the dividend yield is higher, but it may be a sign investors do not trust the long term dividend.
CAKE's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 3.91.
CAKE's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.33.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.99% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of CAKE grows each year by 7.51%, which is quite nice.
CAKE has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
The dividend of CAKE decreased in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.51%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
5.3 Sustainability
CAKE pays out 33.45% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of CAKE is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP33.45%
EPS Next 2Y11.27%
EPS Next 3Y11.56%
49.11
-1.28 (-2.54%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners112.99%
Inst Owner Change-0.83%
Ins Owners8.02%
Ins Owner Change-3.66%
Market Cap2.45B
Revenue(TTM)3.58B
Net Income(TTM)158.90M
Analysts74.07
Price Target65.16 (32.68%)
Short Float %20.32%
Short Ratio7.76
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.99% |
Yearly Dividend1.04
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.51%
DP33.45%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)9.44%
Min EPS beat(2)6.79%
Max EPS beat(2)12.08%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)11.76%
Min EPS beat(4)6.79%
Max EPS beat(4)16.98%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)7.88%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)-3.74%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)-7.19%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.59%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.99%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.19%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.57%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.04%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.06%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.03%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.41%
Revenue beat(16)0
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.29%
PT rev (1m)0.28%
PT rev (3m)13.28%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.1%
EPS NQ rev (3m)6.79%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.21%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.93%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.01%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.38%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.18%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.89 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.53 | ||
| P/S | 0.67 | ||
| P/FCF | 18.77 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.9 | ||
| P/B | 6.1 | ||
| P/tB | 16.44 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.45 |
EPS(TTM)3.81
EY7.76%
EPS(NY)4.26
Fwd EY8.67%
FCF(TTM)2.62
FCFY5.33%
OCF(TTM)6.22
OCFY12.66%
SpS73.67
BVpS8.05
TBVpS2.99
PEG (NY)1.07
PEG (5Y)2.27
Graham Number26.27
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.04% | ||
| ROE | 39.63% | ||
| ROCE | 8.76% | ||
| ROIC | 6.92% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.38% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.3% | ||
| OM | 5.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.33% | ||
| GM | 77.95% | ||
| FCFM | 3.55% |
ROA(3y)3.43%
ROA(5y)0.39%
ROE(3y)27.33%
ROE(5y)8.44%
ROIC(3y)5.05%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)5.24%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)5.93%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)6.39%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y10.35%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.82%
ROICexc growth 3Y11%
ROICexc growth 5Y8.1%
OM growth 3Y8.38%
OM growth 5Y1.18%
PM growth 3Y37.68%
PM growth 5Y-3.11%
GM growth 3Y-0.08%
GM growth 5Y0.03%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.16
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.4 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.82 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.77 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 171.33% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.89% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 27.39 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 97.89% | ||
| Profit Quality | 82% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.42 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.41 |
F-Score7
WACC7.69%
ROIC/WACC0.9
Cap/Depr(3y)148.68%
Cap/Depr(5y)115.39%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.13%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.45%
Profit Quality(3y)81.91%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)19.06%
EPS 3Y17.14%
EPS 5Y5.68%
EPS Q2Q%17.24%
EPS Next Y12.08%
EPS Next 2Y11.27%
EPS Next 3Y11.56%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.13%
Revenue growth 3Y6.95%
Revenue growth 5Y7.61%
Sales Q2Q%4.83%
Revenue Next Year5.38%
Revenue Next 2Y5.72%
Revenue Next 3Y5.93%
Revenue Next 5Y4.87%
EBIT growth 1Y27.18%
EBIT growth 3Y15.92%
EBIT growth 5Y8.87%
EBIT Next Year78.16%
EBIT Next 3Y27.97%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y180.82%
FCF growth 3Y-9.76%
FCF growth 5Y-5.64%
OCF growth 1Y76.03%
OCF growth 3Y8%
OCF growth 5Y4.17%
CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE / CAKE FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for CAKE stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to CAKE.
Can you provide the valuation status for CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of CAKE stock?
CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for CAKE stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) is 12.89 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 6.1.
Is the dividend of CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE sustainable?
The dividend rating of CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) is 6 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 33.45%.