CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:CAKE - Nasdaq - US1630721017 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall CAKE gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. We evaluated CAKE against 136 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. CAKE has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. CAKE has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
CAKE had positive earnings in the past year.
CAKE had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
CAKE had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years CAKE always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
With a decent Return On Assets value of 5.15%, CAKE is doing good in the industry, outperforming 71.32% of the companies in the same industry.
CAKE has a better Return On Equity (35.35%) than 86.03% of its industry peers.
CAKE has a Return On Invested Capital (6.59%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for CAKE is significantly below the industry average of 15.76%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (6.59%) for CAKE is above the 3 year average (5.05%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.15% | ||
| ROE | 35.35% | ||
| ROIC | 6.59% |
ROA(3y)3.43%
ROA(5y)0.39%
ROE(3y)27.33%
ROE(5y)8.44%
ROIC(3y)5.05%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 4.38%, CAKE is in line with its industry, outperforming 58.09% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of CAKE has declined.
With a Operating Margin value of 5.43%, CAKE is not doing good in the industry: 60.29% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of CAKE has remained more or less at the same level.
CAKE's Gross Margin of 77.50% is amongst the best of the industry. CAKE outperforms 93.38% of its industry peers.
CAKE's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 5.43% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.38% | ||
| GM | 77.5% |
OM growth 3Y8.38%
OM growth 5Y1.18%
PM growth 3Y37.68%
PM growth 5Y-3.11%
GM growth 3Y-0.08%
GM growth 5Y0.03%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
CAKE has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
CAKE has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
CAKE has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, CAKE has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.42 indicates that CAKE is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
With a decent Altman-Z score value of 2.42, CAKE is doing good in the industry, outperforming 69.85% of the companies in the same industry.
CAKE has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.23. This is a neutral value as CAKE would need 4.23 years to pay back of all of its debts.
CAKE has a better Debt to FCF ratio (4.23) than 78.68% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.02 is on the high side and indicates that CAKE has dependencies on debt financing.
CAKE's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.02 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. CAKE outperforms 63.97% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.23 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.42 |
ROIC/WACC0.8
WACC8.26%
2.3 Liquidity
CAKE has a Current Ratio of 0.47. This is a bad value and indicates that CAKE is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.47, CAKE is doing worse than 75.74% of the companies in the same industry.
CAKE has a Quick Ratio of 0.47. This is a bad value and indicates that CAKE is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
CAKE's Quick ratio of 0.38 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. CAKE is outperformed by 76.47% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.47 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.38 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
CAKE shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 28.36%, which is quite impressive.
CAKE shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 5.68% yearly.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.13% in the past year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.61% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)28.36%
EPS 3Y17.14%
EPS 5Y5.68%
EPS Q2Q%30%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.13%
Revenue growth 3Y6.95%
Revenue growth 5Y7.61%
Sales Q2Q%5.01%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, CAKE will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 11.80% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 4.87% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y9.47%
EPS Next 2Y10.5%
EPS Next 3Y11.8%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year5.82%
Revenue Next 2Y5.99%
Revenue Next 3Y6.13%
Revenue Next 5Y4.87%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 14.85, CAKE is valued correctly.
78.68% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than CAKE, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 28.87, CAKE is valued a bit cheaper.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.56, the valuation of CAKE can be described as correct.
CAKE's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. CAKE is cheaper than 81.62% of the companies in the same industry.
CAKE is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.38, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.85 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.56 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, CAKE is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 65.44% of the companies are valued more expensively.
CAKE's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. CAKE is cheaper than 66.18% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 23.62 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.63 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
CAKE's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of CAKE may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)1.57
PEG (5Y)2.61
EPS Next 2Y10.5%
EPS Next 3Y11.8%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
CAKE has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.14%.
CAKE's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 3.85.
CAKE's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.46.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.14% |
5.2 History
The dividend of CAKE is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 7.51%!
CAKE has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
The dividend of CAKE decreased in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.51%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years2
5.3 Sustainability
33.83% of the earnings are spent on dividend by CAKE. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of CAKE is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP33.83%
EPS Next 2Y10.5%
EPS Next 3Y11.8%
51.07
+0.92 (+1.83%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners100.08%
Inst Owner Change0.15%
Ins Owners6.78%
Ins Owner Change15.27%
Market Cap2.53B
Analysts75
Price Target55.62 (8.91%)
Short Float %17.14%
Short Ratio4.79
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.14% |
Yearly Dividend1.04
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.51%
DP33.83%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)14.09%
Min EPS beat(2)11.2%
Max EPS beat(2)16.98%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)11.96%
Min EPS beat(4)6.87%
Max EPS beat(4)16.98%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)6.36%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)-8.97%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)18.6%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.55%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.04%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.06%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.88%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.48%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.06%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.38%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.41%
Revenue beat(16)2
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.96%
PT rev (1m)-4.53%
PT rev (3m)8.11%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.48%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-5.9%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.71%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.12%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.08%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.75%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.13%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.5%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.85 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.56 | ||
| P/S | 0.71 | ||
| P/FCF | 23.62 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.41 | ||
| P/B | 5.69 | ||
| P/tB | 13.18 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.63 |
EPS(TTM)3.44
EY6.74%
EPS(NY)3.77
Fwd EY7.37%
FCF(TTM)2.16
FCFY4.23%
OCF(TTM)5.43
OCFY10.63%
SpS72.43
BVpS8.97
TBVpS3.88
PEG (NY)1.57
PEG (5Y)2.61
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.15% | ||
| ROE | 35.35% | ||
| ROCE | 8.34% | ||
| ROIC | 6.59% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.84% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.7% | ||
| OM | 5.43% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.38% | ||
| GM | 77.5% | ||
| FCFM | 2.98% |
ROA(3y)3.43%
ROA(5y)0.39%
ROE(3y)27.33%
ROE(5y)8.44%
ROIC(3y)5.05%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)5.24%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)5.93%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)6.39%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y10.35%
ROICexcg growth 5Y5.82%
ROICexc growth 3Y11%
ROICexc growth 5Y8.1%
OM growth 3Y8.38%
OM growth 5Y1.18%
PM growth 3Y37.68%
PM growth 5Y-3.11%
GM growth 3Y-0.08%
GM growth 5Y0.03%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover1.18
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.23 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.53 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 159.11% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.51% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 15.08 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 90.7% | ||
| Profit Quality | 68.19% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.47 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.38 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.42 |
F-Score8
WACC8.26%
ROIC/WACC0.8
Cap/Depr(3y)148.68%
Cap/Depr(5y)115.39%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.13%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.45%
Profit Quality(3y)81.91%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)28.36%
EPS 3Y17.14%
EPS 5Y5.68%
EPS Q2Q%30%
EPS Next Y9.47%
EPS Next 2Y10.5%
EPS Next 3Y11.8%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.13%
Revenue growth 3Y6.95%
Revenue growth 5Y7.61%
Sales Q2Q%5.01%
Revenue Next Year5.82%
Revenue Next 2Y5.99%
Revenue Next 3Y6.13%
Revenue Next 5Y4.87%
EBIT growth 1Y29.89%
EBIT growth 3Y15.92%
EBIT growth 5Y8.87%
EBIT Next Year74.5%
EBIT Next 3Y27.49%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y64.02%
FCF growth 3Y-9.76%
FCF growth 5Y-5.64%
OCF growth 1Y22.86%
OCF growth 3Y8%
OCF growth 5Y4.17%