CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NASDAQ:CAKE • US1630721017

Current stock price

62.51 USD
+0.79 (+1.28%)
At close:
62.51 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours:

This CAKE fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

7

1. CAKE Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year CAKE was profitable.
  • In the past year CAKE had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • CAKE had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
  • CAKE had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
CAKE Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFCAKE Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100M -100M 200M -200M 300M

1.2 Ratios

  • CAKE's Return On Assets of 4.55% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. CAKE outperforms 64.29% of its industry peers.
  • CAKE has a Return On Equity of 34.01%. This is amongst the best in the industry. CAKE outperforms 86.51% of its industry peers.
  • The Return On Invested Capital of CAKE (8.27%) is better than 62.70% of its industry peers.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for CAKE is below the industry average of 10.55%.
  • The last Return On Invested Capital (8.27%) for CAKE is above the 3 year average (7.39%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.55%
ROE 34.01%
ROIC 8.27%
ROA(3y)4.42%
ROA(5y)3.32%
ROE(3y)33.74%
ROE(5y)26.17%
ROIC(3y)7.39%
ROIC(5y)6.21%
CAKE Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICCAKE Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 -20 -40

1.3 Margins

  • CAKE has a Profit Margin of 3.96%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: CAKE outperforms 53.97% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of CAKE has grown nicely.
  • CAKE's Operating Margin of 5.99% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. CAKE outperforms 40.48% of its industry peers.
  • CAKE's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • With an excellent Gross Margin value of 78.33%, CAKE belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 91.27% of the companies in the same industry.
  • CAKE's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 5.99%
PM (TTM) 3.96%
GM 78.33%
OM growth 3Y33.21%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y44.74%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y1.26%
GM growth 5Y0.34%
CAKE Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsCAKE Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 40 60

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ROAROEROICOperating and Profit MarginShow most profitable peers

3

2. CAKE Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • CAKE has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for CAKE has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
  • The number of shares outstanding for CAKE has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
  • CAKE has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
CAKE Yearly Shares OutstandingCAKE Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10M 20M 30M 40M 50M
CAKE Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsCAKE Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B

2.2 Solvency

  • An Altman-Z score of 2.52 indicates that CAKE is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • CAKE's Altman-Z score of 2.52 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. CAKE outperforms 65.87% of its industry peers.
  • CAKE has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.09. This is a neutral value as CAKE would need 4.09 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 4.09, CAKE is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 76.98% of the companies in the same industry.
  • CAKE has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.29. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • CAKE has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.29. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: CAKE outperforms 53.97% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.29
Debt/FCF 4.09
Altman-Z 2.52
ROIC/WACC1.05
WACC7.84%
CAKE Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFCAKE Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 200M 400M 600M

2.3 Liquidity

  • CAKE has a Current Ratio of 0.59. This is a bad value and indicates that CAKE is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • CAKE's Current ratio of 0.59 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. CAKE is outperformed by 77.78% of its industry peers.
  • CAKE has a Quick Ratio of 0.59. This is a bad value and indicates that CAKE is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • CAKE has a Quick ratio of 0.52. This is in the lower half of the industry: CAKE underperforms 78.57% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.59
Quick Ratio 0.52
CAKE Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesCAKE Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

5

3. CAKE Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 9.59% over the past year.
  • CAKE shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 35.36% yearly.
  • CAKE shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 4.75%.
  • The Revenue has been growing by 13.60% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)9.59%
EPS 3Y35.36%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-3.85%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.75%
Revenue growth 3Y4.34%
Revenue growth 5Y13.6%
Sales Q2Q%4.41%

3.2 Future

  • CAKE is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 10.23% yearly.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, CAKE will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 4.64% on average per year.
EPS Next Y9.13%
EPS Next 2Y9.41%
EPS Next 3Y10.23%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year4.4%
Revenue Next 2Y5.52%
Revenue Next 3Y6.06%
Revenue Next 5Y4.64%

3.3 Evolution

  • Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
CAKE Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesCAKE Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 1B 2B 3B 4B
CAKE Yearly EPS VS EstimatesCAKE Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 0 2 4

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5

4. CAKE Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • A Price/Earnings ratio of 16.58 indicates a correct valuation of CAKE.
  • CAKE's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. CAKE is cheaper than 76.98% of the companies in the same industry.
  • CAKE is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.35, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
  • The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 15.19, which indicates a correct valuation of CAKE.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of CAKE indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: CAKE is cheaper than 73.81% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • CAKE is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.23, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 16.58
Fwd PE 15.19
CAKE Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsCAKE Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30 40

4.2 Price Multiples

  • 60.32% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than CAKE, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of CAKE indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: CAKE is cheaper than 67.46% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 20.21
EV/EBITDA 10.45
CAKE Per share dataCAKE EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 20 40 60

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
  • The decent profitability rating of CAKE may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)1.82
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y9.41%
EPS Next 3Y10.23%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

5

5. CAKE Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.94%, CAKE has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
  • CAKE's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 1.04.
  • CAKE's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 1.82.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.94%

5.2 History

  • The dividend of CAKE decreases each year by -0.62%.
  • CAKE has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • CAKE has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-0.62%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
CAKE Yearly Dividends per shareCAKE Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

5.3 Sustainability

  • CAKE pays out 35.16% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP35.16%
EPS Next 2Y9.41%
EPS Next 3Y10.23%
CAKE Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendCAKE Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100M -100M -200M
CAKE Dividend Payout.CAKE Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.CAKE Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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CAKE Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE

NASDAQ:CAKE (4/27/2026, 8:00:02 PM)

After market: 62.51 0 (0%)

62.51

+0.79 (+1.28%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)02-18
Earnings (Next)04-29
Inst Owners115.83%
Inst Owner Change-0.38%
Ins Owners8.29%
Ins Owner Change26.23%
Market Cap3.11B
Revenue(TTM)3.75B
Net Income(TTM)148.43M
Analysts71.72
Price Target66.12 (5.78%)
Short Float %17.33%
Short Ratio5.89
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.94%
Yearly Dividend1.03
Dividend Growth(5Y)-0.62%
DP35.16%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date03-04
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.72%
Min EPS beat(2)-1.04%
Max EPS beat(2)10.48%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)7.08%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.04%
Max EPS beat(4)12.08%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)9.52%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)6.6%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)-4.96%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.64%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.56%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.72%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.61%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.56%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.72%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.74%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.12%
Revenue beat(16)0
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.21%
PT rev (1m)-0.36%
PT rev (3m)8.8%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.06%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-0.71%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.06%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.75%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.02%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.16%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.03%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.23%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 16.58
Fwd PE 15.19
P/S 0.83
P/FCF 20.21
P/OCF 10.33
P/B 7.13
P/tB 16.86
EV/EBITDA 10.45
EPS(TTM)3.77
EY6.03%
EPS(NY)4.11
Fwd EY6.58%
FCF(TTM)3.09
FCFY4.95%
OCF(TTM)6.05
OCFY9.68%
SpS75.34
BVpS8.76
TBVpS3.71
PEG (NY)1.82
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number27.2648 (-56.38%)
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.55%
ROE 34.01%
ROCE 9.04%
ROIC 8.27%
ROICexc 9.05%
ROICexgc 10.18%
OM 5.99%
PM (TTM) 3.96%
GM 78.33%
FCFM 4.11%
ROA(3y)4.42%
ROA(5y)3.32%
ROE(3y)33.74%
ROE(5y)26.17%
ROIC(3y)7.39%
ROIC(5y)6.21%
ROICexc(3y)7.8%
ROICexc(5y)6.6%
ROICexgc(3y)8.8%
ROICexgc(5y)7.48%
ROCE(3y)8.08%
ROCE(5y)6.8%
ROICexgc growth 3Y32.61%
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3Y33.35%
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y33.21%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y44.74%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y1.26%
GM growth 5Y0.34%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover1.15
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.29
Debt/FCF 4.09
Debt/EBITDA 1.68
Cap/Depr 135.06%
Cap/Sales 3.93%
Interest Coverage 25.88
Cash Conversion 90.27%
Profit Quality 103.77%
Current Ratio 0.59
Quick Ratio 0.52
Altman-Z 2.52
F-Score6
WACC7.84%
ROIC/WACC1.05
Cap/Depr(3y)152.9%
Cap/Depr(5y)131.27%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.3%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.72%
Profit Quality(3y)78.76%
Profit Quality(5y)129.17%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)9.59%
EPS 3Y35.36%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-3.85%
EPS Next Y9.13%
EPS Next 2Y9.41%
EPS Next 3Y10.23%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.75%
Revenue growth 3Y4.34%
Revenue growth 5Y13.6%
Sales Q2Q%4.41%
Revenue Next Year4.4%
Revenue Next 2Y5.52%
Revenue Next 3Y6.06%
Revenue Next 5Y4.64%
EBIT growth 1Y15.6%
EBIT growth 3Y38.99%
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year60.99%
EBIT Next 3Y23.54%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y44.07%
FCF growth 3Y46.69%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y12.28%
OCF growth 3Y23%
OCF growth 5Y153.11%

CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE / CAKE Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the fundamental rating for CAKE stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to CAKE.


What is the valuation status for CAKE stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) stock?

CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) has a profitability rating of 7 / 10.


Can you provide the financial health for CAKE stock?

The financial health rating of CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) is 3 / 10.


Can you provide the dividend sustainability for CAKE stock?

The dividend rating of CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 35.16%.