CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC/THE (CAKE) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:CAKE - Nasdaq - US1630721017 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, CAKE scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. CAKE was compared to 135 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. CAKE has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. CAKE is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year CAKE was profitable.
CAKE had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years CAKE 4 years were profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years CAKE had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
CAKE has a Return On Assets of 5.03%. This is in the better half of the industry: CAKE outperforms 68.89% of its industry peers.
CAKE's Return On Equity of 46.12% is amongst the best of the industry. CAKE outperforms 92.59% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 6.68%, CAKE is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.78% of the companies in the same industry.
CAKE had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 5.05%. This is significantly below the industry average of 13.81%.
The 3 year average ROIC (5.05%) for CAKE is below the current ROIC(6.68%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.03% | ||
| ROE | 46.12% | ||
| ROIC | 6.68% |
ROA(3y)3.43%
ROA(5y)0.39%
ROE(3y)27.33%
ROE(5y)8.44%
ROIC(3y)5.05%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
CAKE has a Profit Margin of 4.33%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: CAKE outperforms 56.30% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of CAKE has declined.
CAKE has a worse Operating Margin (5.67%) than 61.48% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of CAKE has remained more or less at the same level.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 77.75%, CAKE belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 92.59% of the companies in the same industry.
CAKE's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 5.67% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.33% | ||
| GM | 77.75% |
OM growth 3Y8.38%
OM growth 5Y1.18%
PM growth 3Y37.68%
PM growth 5Y-3.11%
GM growth 3Y-0.08%
GM growth 5Y0.03%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
CAKE has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
CAKE has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
CAKE has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
CAKE has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.55 indicates that CAKE is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 2.55, CAKE is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 67.41% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of CAKE is 5.55, which is a neutral value as it means it would take CAKE, 5.55 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of CAKE (5.55) is better than 80.74% of its industry peers.
CAKE has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.85. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
CAKE has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.85. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: CAKE outperforms 55.56% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.85 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 5.55 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.55 |
ROIC/WACC0.76
WACC8.74%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.53 indicates that CAKE may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
CAKE's Current ratio of 0.53 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. CAKE is outperformed by 74.81% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.43 indicates that CAKE may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of CAKE (0.43) is worse than 77.04% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.53 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.43 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
CAKE shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 30.00%, which is quite impressive.
CAKE shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 5.68% yearly.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.42% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, CAKE shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 7.61% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)30%
EPS 3Y17.14%
EPS 5Y5.68%
EPS Q2Q%27.4%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.42%
Revenue growth 3Y6.95%
Revenue growth 5Y7.61%
Sales Q2Q%4.04%
3.2 Future
CAKE is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 11.10% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, CAKE will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 4.87% on average per year.
EPS Next Y8.89%
EPS Next 2Y10.06%
EPS Next 3Y11.1%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year5.19%
Revenue Next 2Y5.66%
Revenue Next 3Y5.94%
Revenue Next 5Y4.87%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 17.79, CAKE is valued on the expensive side.
77.78% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than CAKE, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.30. CAKE is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.54 indicates a correct valuation of CAKE.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, CAKE is valued a bit cheaper than 72.59% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.76, CAKE is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.79 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.54 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of CAKE is on the same level as its industry peers.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of CAKE indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: CAKE is cheaper than 66.67% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 28.37 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.01 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of CAKE may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)2
PEG (5Y)3.13
EPS Next 2Y10.06%
EPS Next 3Y11.1%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.68%, CAKE has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
CAKE's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 3.53.
CAKE's Dividend Yield is slightly below the S&P500 average, which is at 2.35.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.68% |
5.2 History
The dividend of CAKE is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 7.51%!
CAKE has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
The dividend of CAKE decreased in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.51%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
5.3 Sustainability
CAKE pays out 33.67% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of CAKE is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP33.67%
EPS Next 2Y10.06%
EPS Next 3Y11.1%
64.77
+0.6 (+0.94%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners112.08%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners8.08%
Ins Owner Change16.31%
Market Cap3.21B
Analysts74.07
Price Target57.69 (-10.93%)
Short Float %20.9%
Short Ratio7.09
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.68% |
Yearly Dividend1.04
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.51%
DP33.67%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)11.64%
Min EPS beat(2)11.2%
Max EPS beat(2)12.08%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)11.78%
Min EPS beat(4)6.87%
Max EPS beat(4)16.98%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)7.68%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)-7.14%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)-7.45%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.52%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.99%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.06%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.89%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.48%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.06%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.31%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.52%
Revenue beat(16)1
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.19%
PT rev (1m)2.14%
PT rev (3m)-0.25%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-5.72%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.06%
EPS NY rev (3m)-1.24%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.01%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.95%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.67%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.79 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.54 | ||
| P/S | 0.89 | ||
| P/FCF | 28.37 | ||
| P/OCF | 11.44 | ||
| P/B | 9.45 | ||
| P/tB | 36.78 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.01 |
EPS(TTM)3.64
EY5.62%
EPS(NY)4.17
Fwd EY6.43%
FCF(TTM)2.28
FCFY3.52%
OCF(TTM)5.66
OCFY8.74%
SpS73.04
BVpS6.85
TBVpS1.76
PEG (NY)2
PEG (5Y)3.13
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.03% | ||
| ROE | 46.12% | ||
| ROCE | 8.46% | ||
| ROIC | 6.68% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.08% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.95% | ||
| OM | 5.67% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.33% | ||
| GM | 77.75% | ||
| FCFM | 3.13% |
ROA(3y)3.43%
ROA(5y)0.39%
ROE(3y)27.33%
ROE(5y)8.44%
ROIC(3y)5.05%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)5.24%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)5.93%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)6.39%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y10.35%
ROICexcg growth 5Y5.82%
ROICexc growth 3Y11%
ROICexc growth 5Y8.1%
OM growth 3Y8.38%
OM growth 5Y1.18%
PM growth 3Y37.68%
PM growth 5Y-3.11%
GM growth 3Y-0.08%
GM growth 5Y0.03%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.16
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.85 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 5.55 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.04 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 162.91% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.63% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 20.11 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 91.07% | ||
| Profit Quality | 72.23% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.53 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.43 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.55 |
F-Score7
WACC8.74%
ROIC/WACC0.76
Cap/Depr(3y)148.68%
Cap/Depr(5y)115.39%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.13%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.45%
Profit Quality(3y)81.91%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)30%
EPS 3Y17.14%
EPS 5Y5.68%
EPS Q2Q%27.4%
EPS Next Y8.89%
EPS Next 2Y10.06%
EPS Next 3Y11.1%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.42%
Revenue growth 3Y6.95%
Revenue growth 5Y7.61%
Sales Q2Q%4.04%
Revenue Next Year5.19%
Revenue Next 2Y5.66%
Revenue Next 3Y5.94%
Revenue Next 5Y4.87%
EBIT growth 1Y32.53%
EBIT growth 3Y15.92%
EBIT growth 5Y8.87%
EBIT Next Year72.16%
EBIT Next 3Y26.92%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y58.35%
FCF growth 3Y-9.76%
FCF growth 5Y-5.64%
OCF growth 1Y45.03%
OCF growth 3Y8%
OCF growth 5Y4.17%