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BLUE BIRD CORP (BLBD) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NASDAQ:BLBD - Nasdaq - US0953061068 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

35.08  -0.83 (-2.31%)

After market: 35.3 +0.22 (+0.63%)

Fundamental Rating

6

We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to BLBD. BLBD was compared to 128 industry peers in the Machinery industry. BLBD has an average financial health and profitability rating. BLBD scores decently on growth, while it is valued quite cheap. This could make an interesting combination. These ratings could make BLBD a good candidate for value investing.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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6

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year BLBD was profitable.
BLBD had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: BLBD reported negative net income in multiple years.
The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: BLBD reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
BLBD Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFBLBD Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 50M -50M 100M

1.2 Ratios

With an excellent Return On Assets value of 20.20%, BLBD belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 96.80% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Equity of BLBD (60.16%) is better than 98.40% of its industry peers.
BLBD has a Return On Invested Capital of 30.58%. This is amongst the best in the industry. BLBD outperforms 98.40% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 20.2%
ROE 60.16%
ROIC 30.58%
ROA(3y)4.43%
ROA(5y)3.41%
ROE(3y)-1048.58%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
BLBD Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICBLBD Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 -1K -2K -3K

1.3 Margins

BLBD has a better Profit Margin (8.05%) than 64.00% of its industry peers.
BLBD's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
With a Operating Margin value of 10.01%, BLBD perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 52.00% of the companies in the same industry.
BLBD's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of BLBD (18.83%) is worse than 76.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of BLBD has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 10.01%
PM (TTM) 8.05%
GM 18.83%
OM growth 3Y121.61%
OM growth 5Y19.19%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y26.86%
GM growth 3Y21.73%
GM growth 5Y7.73%
BLBD Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsBLBD Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 5 -5 10 15

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5

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), BLBD is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, BLBD has more shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, BLBD has more shares outstanding
BLBD has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
BLBD Yearly Shares OutstandingBLBD Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10M 20M 30M
BLBD Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsBLBD Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 100M 200M 300M 400M 500M

2.2 Solvency

BLBD has an Altman-Z score of 5.56. This indicates that BLBD is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
BLBD has a Altman-Z score of 5.56. This is in the better half of the industry: BLBD outperforms 78.40% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of BLBD is 0.78, which is an excellent value as it means it would take BLBD, only 0.78 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
With an excellent Debt to FCF ratio value of 0.78, BLBD belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 88.00% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.49 indicates that BLBD is not too dependend on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.49, BLBD perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 43.20% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.49
Debt/FCF 0.78
Altman-Z 5.56
ROIC/WACC2.87
WACC10.65%
BLBD Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFBLBD Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 100M -100M

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 1.44 indicates that BLBD should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.44, BLBD is doing worse than 76.00% of the companies in the same industry.
BLBD has a Quick Ratio of 1.44. This is a bad value and indicates that BLBD is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
BLBD has a Quick ratio of 0.73. This is amonst the worse of the industry: BLBD underperforms 84.80% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.44
Quick Ratio 0.73
BLBD Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesBLBD Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 100M 200M 300M

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6

3. Growth

3.1 Past

BLBD shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 53.07%, which is quite impressive.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 16.38% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
BLBD shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 10.59%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 5.74% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)53.07%
EPS 3Y123.91%
EPS 5Y16.38%
EPS Q2Q%1.1%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10.59%
Revenue growth 3Y25.35%
Revenue growth 5Y5.74%
Sales Q2Q%-1.17%

3.2 Future

Based on estimates for the next years, BLBD will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 8.60% on average per year.
BLBD is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 8.93% yearly.
EPS Next Y16.13%
EPS Next 2Y14.42%
EPS Next 3Y8.6%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year10.2%
Revenue Next 2Y9.39%
Revenue Next 3Y8.93%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
BLBD Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesBLBD Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 500M 1B 1.5B
BLBD Yearly EPS VS EstimatesBLBD Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 0 1 -1 2 3 4

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9

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

The Price/Earnings ratio is 10.05, which indicates a very decent valuation of BLBD.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, BLBD is valued cheaper than 90.40% of the companies in the same industry.
BLBD is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 29.63, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 7.70, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of BLBD.
97.60% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than BLBD, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
BLBD's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 22.68.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 10.05
Fwd PE 7.7
BLBD Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsBLBD Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, BLBD is valued cheaper than 86.40% of the companies in the same industry.
94.40% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than BLBD, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 9.36
EV/EBITDA 7.43
BLBD Per share dataBLBD EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30 40

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
BLBD has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)0.62
PEG (5Y)0.61
EPS Next 2Y14.42%
EPS Next 3Y8.6%

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0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

BLBD does not give a dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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BLUE BIRD CORP

NASDAQ:BLBD (2/21/2025, 8:03:42 PM)

After market: 35.3 +0.22 (+0.63%)

35.08

-0.83 (-2.31%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCapital Goods
GICS IndustryMachinery
Earnings (Last)02-05 2025-02-05/amc
Earnings (Next)05-06 2025-05-06/amc
Inst Owners89.58%
Inst Owner Change1.37%
Ins Owners0.05%
Ins Owner Change4.31%
Market Cap1.13B
Analysts83.08
Price Target57.57 (64.11%)
Short Float %17.78%
Short Ratio7.99
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)12.89%
Min EPS beat(2)10.53%
Max EPS beat(2)15.25%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)44.95%
Min EPS beat(4)10.53%
Max EPS beat(4)79.91%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)80.6%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)-112.02%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)-88.76%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.84%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.19%
Max Revenue beat(2)3.87%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)4.2%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.54%
Max Revenue beat(4)13.65%
Revenue beat(8)6
Avg Revenue beat(8)6.42%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)8.73%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)4.38%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-2.69%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.65%
EPS NQ rev (3m)63.59%
EPS NY rev (1m)1.38%
EPS NY rev (3m)7.41%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.99%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)6.87%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.54%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 10.05
Fwd PE 7.7
P/S 0.84
P/FCF 9.36
P/OCF 8.2
P/B 6.27
P/tB 9.56
EV/EBITDA 7.43
EPS(TTM)3.49
EY9.95%
EPS(NY)4.56
Fwd EY12.99%
FCF(TTM)3.75
FCFY10.68%
OCF(TTM)4.28
OCFY12.19%
SpS41.84
BVpS5.6
TBVpS3.67
PEG (NY)0.62
PEG (5Y)0.61
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 20.2%
ROE 60.16%
ROCE 43.96%
ROIC 30.58%
ROICexc 55.11%
ROICexgc 86.77%
OM 10.01%
PM (TTM) 8.05%
GM 18.83%
FCFM 8.96%
ROA(3y)4.43%
ROA(5y)3.41%
ROE(3y)-1048.58%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y220.13%
ROICexcg growth 5Y10.5%
ROICexc growth 3Y207.87%
ROICexc growth 5Y19.73%
OM growth 3Y121.61%
OM growth 5Y19.19%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y26.86%
GM growth 3Y21.73%
GM growth 5Y7.73%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover2.51
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.49
Debt/FCF 0.78
Debt/EBITDA 0.59
Cap/Depr 112.59%
Cap/Sales 1.26%
Interest Coverage 12.81
Cash Conversion 91.86%
Profit Quality 111.31%
Current Ratio 1.44
Quick Ratio 0.73
Altman-Z 5.56
F-Score8
WACC10.65%
ROIC/WACC2.87
Cap/Depr(3y)67.41%
Cap/Depr(5y)84.95%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.9%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.33%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)53.07%
EPS 3Y123.91%
EPS 5Y16.38%
EPS Q2Q%1.1%
EPS Next Y16.13%
EPS Next 2Y14.42%
EPS Next 3Y8.6%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10.59%
Revenue growth 3Y25.35%
Revenue growth 5Y5.74%
Sales Q2Q%-1.17%
Revenue Next Year10.2%
Revenue Next 2Y9.39%
Revenue Next 3Y8.93%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y34.93%
EBIT growth 3Y177.79%
EBIT growth 5Y26.04%
EBIT Next Year39.03%
EBIT Next 3Y15.86%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y433.95%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y36.54%
OCF growth 1Y380.59%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y14.81%