AMERICAN EXPRESS CO (AXP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AXP - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US0258161092 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, AXP scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AXP was compared to 53 industry peers in the Consumer Finance industry. AXP has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. AXP has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AXP had positive earnings in the past year.
AXP had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years AXP has always been profitable.
AXP had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
AXP has a better Return On Assets (3.60%) than 73.58% of its industry peers.
AXP has a better Return On Equity (32.85%) than 94.34% of its industry peers.
AXP has a Return On Invested Capital of 3.75%. This is in the better half of the industry: AXP outperforms 60.38% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.6% | ||
| ROE | 32.85% | ||
| ROIC | 3.75% |
ROA(3y)N/A
ROA(5y)N/A
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AXP's Profit Margin of 13.89% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AXP outperforms 58.49% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AXP has remained more or less at the same level.
The Operating Margin of AXP (17.38%) is better than 66.04% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AXP has remained more or less at the same level.
AXP's Gross Margin of 62.61% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AXP outperforms 66.04% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AXP has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 17.38% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 13.89% | ||
| GM | 62.61% |
OM growth 3Y-8.13%
OM growth 5Y-0.59%
PM growth 3Y-8.95%
PM growth 5Y-1.04%
GM growth 3Y-3.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.9%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AXP is destroying value.
AXP has no outstanding debt. Therefor its Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratios are 0 and belong to the best of the industry.
2.2 Solvency
AXP has an Altman-Z score of 0.76. This is a bad value and indicates that AXP is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 0.76, AXP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 54.72% of the companies in the same industry.
AXP has a debt to FCF ratio of 14.43. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as AXP would need 14.43 years to pay back of all of its debts.
AXP has a Debt to FCF ratio of 14.43. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AXP outperforms 41.51% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 6.41 is on the high side and indicates that AXP has dependencies on debt financing.
AXP has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (6.41) than 79.25% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 6.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 14.43 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.76 |
ROIC/WACC0.54
WACC6.97%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.71 indicates that AXP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 0.71, AXP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 41.51% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.71 indicates that AXP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AXP has a Quick ratio of 0.71. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AXP outperforms 41.51% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.71 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.71 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AXP shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 12.52%, which is quite good.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 10.27% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
The Revenue has grown by 9.58% in the past year. This is quite good.
Measured over the past years, AXP shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 9.69% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)12.52%
EPS 3Y10.15%
EPS 5Y10.27%
EPS Q2Q%9.31%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)9.58%
Revenue growth 3Y18.7%
Revenue growth 5Y9.69%
Sales Q2Q%7.38%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 9.87% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 7.69% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y15.82%
EPS Next 2Y15.27%
EPS Next 3Y15.07%
EPS Next 5Y9.87%
Revenue Next Year8.3%
Revenue Next 2Y8.24%
Revenue Next 3Y8.01%
Revenue Next 5Y7.69%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 18.40, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of AXP.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AXP is valued a bit more expensive than 69.81% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 28.29, AXP is valued a bit cheaper.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.17, AXP is valued correctly.
AXP's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 21.08. AXP is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.4 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.17 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AXP's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AXP is cheaper than 67.92% of the companies in the same industry.
62.26% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than AXP, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.35 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.14 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AXP's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
AXP has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AXP's earnings are expected to grow with 15.07% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.16
PEG (5Y)1.79
EPS Next 2Y15.27%
EPS Next 3Y15.07%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AXP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.30%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 4.85, AXP has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.57, AXP's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AXP grows each year by 9.36%, which is quite nice.
AXP has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AXP has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.36%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years20
5.3 Sustainability
AXP pays out 19.91% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
AXP's earnings are growing around the same pace than its dividend. As long as the earnings growth is kept the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP19.91%
EPS Next 2Y15.27%
EPS Next 3Y15.07%
251.31
-1.61 (-0.64%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryConsumer Finance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners65.26%
Inst Owner Change0.01%
Ins Owners0.12%
Ins Owner Change3.61%
Market Cap176.20B
Analysts68.82
Price Target317.75 (26.44%)
Short Float %1.51%
Short Ratio2.98
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
Yearly Dividend2.43
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.36%
DP19.91%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years20
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)5.88%
Min EPS beat(2)5.25%
Max EPS beat(2)6.52%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)5.41%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.69%
Max EPS beat(4)11.56%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)2.03%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)4.13%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)15.15%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.85%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.51%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.19%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.71%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.51%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.9%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.06%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.43%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.75%
PT rev (1m)-1.9%
PT rev (3m)6.95%
EPS NQ rev (1m)1.25%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.25%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.05%
EPS NY rev (3m)1.13%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.08%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.08%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.24%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.28%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.4 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.17 | ||
| P/S | 2.51 | ||
| P/FCF | 13.35 | ||
| P/OCF | 11.71 | ||
| P/B | 5.93 | ||
| P/tB | 5.93 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.14 |
EPS(TTM)13.66
EY5.44%
EPS(NY)17.74
Fwd EY7.06%
FCF(TTM)18.83
FCFY7.49%
OCF(TTM)21.45
OCFY8.54%
SpS100.2
BVpS42.37
TBVpS42.37
PEG (NY)1.16
PEG (5Y)1.79
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.6% | ||
| ROE | 32.85% | ||
| ROCE | 10.1% | ||
| ROIC | 3.75% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.59% | ||
| ROICexgc | 5.08% | ||
| OM | 17.38% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 13.89% | ||
| GM | 62.61% | ||
| FCFM | 18.79% |
ROA(3y)N/A
ROA(5y)N/A
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-8.13%
OM growth 5Y-0.59%
PM growth 3Y-8.95%
PM growth 5Y-1.04%
GM growth 3Y-3.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.9%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.26
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 6.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 14.43 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 13.72 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 110.3% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.62% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 108.34% | ||
| Profit Quality | 135.24% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.71 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.71 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.76 |
F-Score6
WACC6.97%
ROIC/WACC0.54
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)12.52%
EPS 3Y10.15%
EPS 5Y10.27%
EPS Q2Q%9.31%
EPS Next Y15.82%
EPS Next 2Y15.27%
EPS Next 3Y15.07%
EPS Next 5Y9.87%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)9.58%
Revenue growth 3Y18.7%
Revenue growth 5Y9.69%
Sales Q2Q%7.38%
Revenue Next Year8.3%
Revenue Next 2Y8.24%
Revenue Next 3Y8.01%
Revenue Next 5Y7.69%
EBIT growth 1Y20.01%
EBIT growth 3Y9.05%
EBIT growth 5Y9.04%
EBIT Next Year45.1%
EBIT Next 3Y22.83%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-28.93%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-25.62%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A