AMERICAN EXPRESS CO (AXP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AXP - US0258161092 - Common Stock
365.27 USD
+1.3 (+0.36%)
365.44 USD
+0.17 (+0.05%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to AXP. AXP was compared to 55 industry peers in the Consumer Finance industry. While AXP is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. AXP is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AXP had positive earnings in the past year.
AXP had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years AXP has been profitable.
In the past 5 years AXP always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
AXP has a Return On Assets of 3.50%. This is in the better half of the industry: AXP outperforms 65.45% of its industry peers.
AXP has a Return On Equity of 32.12%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AXP outperforms 92.73% of its industry peers.
AXP's Return On Invested Capital of 3.77% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AXP outperforms 58.18% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for AXP is significantly below the industry average of 11.33%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (3.77%) for AXP is above the 3 year average (3.64%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.5% | ||
| ROE | 32.12% | ||
| ROIC | 3.77% |
ROA(3y)3.36%
ROA(5y)3.17%
ROE(3y)30.79%
ROE(5y)28.26%
ROIC(3y)3.64%
ROIC(5y)3.45%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 13.72%, AXP is in line with its industry, outperforming 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AXP's Profit Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
AXP's Operating Margin of 17.76% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AXP outperforms 65.45% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AXP has remained more or less at the same level.
The Gross Margin of AXP (61.93%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AXP has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 17.76% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 13.72% | ||
| GM | 61.93% |
OM growth 3Y-8.78%
OM growth 5Y-0.57%
PM growth 3Y-8.37%
PM growth 5Y-0.22%
GM growth 3Y-2.58%
GM growth 5Y-1.09%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AXP is destroying value.
AXP has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
AXP has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AXP has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.87, we must say that AXP is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
AXP has a Altman-Z score (0.87) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AXP is 11.04, which is on the high side as it means it would take AXP, 11.04 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 11.04, AXP is in line with its industry, outperforming 58.18% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 6.45 is on the high side and indicates that AXP has dependencies on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of AXP (6.45) is worse than 72.73% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 6.45 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 11.04 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.87 |
ROIC/WACC0.42
WACC9%
2.3 Liquidity
AXP has a Current Ratio of 0.68. This is a bad value and indicates that AXP is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of AXP (0.68) is worse than 60.00% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.68 indicates that AXP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AXP's Quick ratio of 0.68 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AXP is outperformed by 60.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.68 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.68 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 15.24% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 10.27% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
Looking at the last year, AXP shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 4.37% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, AXP shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 8.79% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)15.24%
EPS 3Y10.15%
EPS 5Y10.27%
EPS Q2Q%18.62%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.37%
Revenue growth 3Y17.95%
Revenue growth 5Y8.79%
Sales Q2Q%10.76%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 10.40% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 7.38% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y16.89%
EPS Next 2Y14.8%
EPS Next 3Y14.62%
EPS Next 5Y10.4%
Revenue Next Year9.39%
Revenue Next 2Y9.13%
Revenue Next 3Y8.92%
Revenue Next 5Y7.38%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 24.51 indicates a rather expensive valuation of AXP.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AXP indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: AXP is more expensive than 70.91% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.31. AXP is around the same levels.
AXP is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 20.76.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AXP indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: AXP is more expensive than 65.45% of the companies listed in the same industry.
AXP is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 36.59, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24.51 | ||
| Fwd PE | 20.76 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as AXP.
AXP's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.28 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 16.9 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
AXP has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
AXP's earnings are expected to grow with 14.62% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.45
PEG (5Y)2.39
EPS Next 2Y14.8%
EPS Next 3Y14.62%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AXP has a yearly dividend return of 0.90%, which is pretty low.
AXP's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 5.12.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.90, AXP pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.34.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AXP grows each year by 10.33%, which is quite nice.
AXP has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AXP has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.33%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years20
5.3 Sustainability
21.11% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AXP. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of AXP is growing around the same rate as the earnings are growing. If this keeps up the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP21.11%
EPS Next 2Y14.8%
EPS Next 3Y14.62%
365.27
+1.3 (+0.36%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryConsumer Finance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners65.31%
Inst Owner Change-0.89%
Ins Owners0.09%
Ins Owner Change-1.08%
Market Cap251.62B
Revenue(TTM)75.91B
Net Income(TTM)10.41B
Analysts68.89
Price Target357.54 (-2.12%)
Short Float %1.89%
Short Ratio3.89
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
Yearly Dividend2.81
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.33%
DP21.11%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years20
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)3.22%
Min EPS beat(2)2.58%
Max EPS beat(2)3.86%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)2.4%
Min EPS beat(4)-0.95%
Max EPS beat(4)4.09%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)3.9%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)2.15%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)3.7%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.45%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.18%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.09%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.19%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.88%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.09%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.95%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.48%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.9%
PT rev (1m)9.15%
PT rev (3m)10.34%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.03%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-0.96%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.27%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.9%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.04%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.86%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.33%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.77%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24.51 | ||
| Fwd PE | 20.76 | ||
| P/S | 3.31 | ||
| P/FCF | 13.28 | ||
| P/OCF | 11.9 | ||
| P/B | 7.76 | ||
| P/tB | 7.76 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 16.9 |
EPS(TTM)14.9
EY4.08%
EPS(NY)17.59
Fwd EY4.82%
FCF(TTM)27.5
FCFY7.53%
OCF(TTM)30.69
OCFY8.4%
SpS110.19
BVpS47.06
TBVpS47.06
PEG (NY)1.45
PEG (5Y)2.39
Graham Number125.61
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.5% | ||
| ROE | 32.12% | ||
| ROCE | 10.25% | ||
| ROIC | 3.77% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.62% | ||
| ROICexgc | 5.14% | ||
| OM | 17.76% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 13.72% | ||
| GM | 61.93% | ||
| FCFM | 24.95% |
ROA(3y)3.36%
ROA(5y)3.17%
ROE(3y)30.79%
ROE(5y)28.26%
ROIC(3y)3.64%
ROIC(5y)3.45%
ROICexc(3y)4.36%
ROICexc(5y)4.08%
ROICexgc(3y)4.66%
ROICexgc(5y)4.41%
ROCE(3y)9.86%
ROCE(5y)9.06%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-4.54%
ROICexgc growth 5Y1.68%
ROICexc growth 3Y-3.59%
ROICexc growth 5Y1.93%
OM growth 3Y-8.78%
OM growth 5Y-0.57%
PM growth 3Y-8.37%
PM growth 5Y-0.22%
GM growth 3Y-2.58%
GM growth 5Y-1.09%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.26
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 6.45 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 11.04 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 13.73 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 126.1% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.9% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 138.84% | ||
| Profit Quality | 181.93% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.68 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.68 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.87 |
F-Score6
WACC9%
ROIC/WACC0.42
Cap/Depr(3y)107.59%
Cap/Depr(5y)102%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.77%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.15%
Profit Quality(3y)195.73%
Profit Quality(5y)177.62%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)15.24%
EPS 3Y10.15%
EPS 5Y10.27%
EPS Q2Q%18.62%
EPS Next Y16.89%
EPS Next 2Y14.8%
EPS Next 3Y14.62%
EPS Next 5Y10.4%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.37%
Revenue growth 3Y17.95%
Revenue growth 5Y8.79%
Sales Q2Q%10.76%
Revenue Next Year9.39%
Revenue Next 2Y9.13%
Revenue Next 3Y8.92%
Revenue Next 5Y7.38%
EBIT growth 1Y10.4%
EBIT growth 3Y7.6%
EBIT growth 5Y8.16%
EBIT Next Year45.1%
EBIT Next 3Y10%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y1.99%
FCF growth 3Y-2.5%
FCF growth 5Y0.25%
OCF growth 1Y4.53%
OCF growth 3Y-1.37%
OCF growth 5Y0.61%
AMERICAN EXPRESS CO / AXP FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for AMERICAN EXPRESS CO?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AXP.
What is the valuation status of AMERICAN EXPRESS CO (AXP) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to AMERICAN EXPRESS CO (AXP). This can be considered as Overvalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for AMERICAN EXPRESS CO?
AMERICAN EXPRESS CO (AXP) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
What is the valuation of AMERICAN EXPRESS CO based on its PE and PB ratios?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for AMERICAN EXPRESS CO (AXP) is 24.51 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 7.76.
What is the expected EPS growth for AMERICAN EXPRESS CO (AXP) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of AMERICAN EXPRESS CO (AXP) is expected to grow by 16.89% in the next year.