AMERICAN AXLE & MFG HOLDINGS (AXL) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AXL - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US0240611030 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
AXL gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 83 industry peers in the Automobile Components industry. AXL may be in some trouble as it scores bad on both profitability and health. AXL has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AXL was profitable.
AXL had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AXL reported negative net income in multiple years.
Each year in the past 5 years AXL had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 0.67%, AXL is doing worse than 72.29% of the companies in the same industry.
AXL's Return On Equity of 6.01% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AXL is outperformed by 67.47% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of AXL (5.52%) is worse than 75.90% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for AXL is below the industry average of 9.58%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (5.52%) for AXL is above the 3 year average (4.62%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.67% | ||
| ROE | 6.01% | ||
| ROIC | 5.52% |
ROA(3y)0.39%
ROA(5y)-1.64%
ROE(3y)3.42%
ROE(5y)-28%
ROIC(3y)4.62%
ROIC(5y)4.36%
1.3 Margins
AXL has a worse Profit Margin (0.55%) than 73.49% of its industry peers.
AXL's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 4.43%, AXL is doing worse than 72.29% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AXL has declined.
AXL's Gross Margin of 12.10% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AXL is outperformed by 84.34% of its industry peers.
AXL's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.43% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.55% | ||
| GM | 12.1% |
OM growth 3Y-7.92%
OM growth 5Y-8.14%
PM growth 3Y70.91%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-4.77%
GM growth 5Y-2.62%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AXL is destroying value.
AXL has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
AXL has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
AXL has about the same debt/assets ratio as last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.59, we must say that AXL is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.59, AXL is not doing good in the industry: 77.11% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
AXL has a debt to FCF ratio of 12.85. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as AXL would need 12.85 years to pay back of all of its debts.
AXL has a Debt to FCF ratio of 12.85. This is in the lower half of the industry: AXL underperforms 73.49% of its industry peers.
AXL has a Debt/Equity ratio of 4.58. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 4.58, AXL is not doing good in the industry: 91.57% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.58 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 12.85 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.59 |
ROIC/WACC0.76
WACC7.29%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.63 indicates that AXL should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
AXL's Current ratio of 1.63 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AXL is outperformed by 79.52% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.25 indicates that AXL should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a decent Quick ratio value of 1.25, AXL is doing good in the industry, outperforming 77.11% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.63 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.25 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AXL shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 666.67%, which is quite impressive.
Measured over the past years, AXL shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -20.64% on average per year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 0.75% in the past year.
AXL shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -1.28% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)666.67%
EPS 3Y-17.85%
EPS 5Y-20.64%
EPS Q2Q%33.33%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.75%
Revenue growth 3Y5.9%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.28%
Sales Q2Q%-5.62%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 16.25% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
AXL is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -2.25% yearly.
EPS Next Y4.68%
EPS Next 2Y6.62%
EPS Next 3Y16.25%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-3.82%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.25%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 10.98, the valuation of AXL can be described as very reasonable.
63.86% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AXL, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 29.63. AXL is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
AXL is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.49.
AXL's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AXL to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.68), we can say AXL is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.98 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.49 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of AXL indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AXL is cheaper than 78.31% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AXL is valued cheaper than 95.18% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 3.22 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 3.73 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
AXL's earnings are expected to grow with 16.25% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)2.35
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y6.62%
EPS Next 3Y16.25%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for AXL!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
5.6
-0.28 (-4.76%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobile Components
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners103.05%
Inst Owner Change1.28%
Ins Owners3.2%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap658.45M
Analysts51.43
Price Target6.93 (23.75%)
Short Float %6.87%
Short Ratio4.04
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)273.96%
Min EPS beat(2)43.8%
Max EPS beat(2)504.12%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)347.12%
Min EPS beat(4)43.8%
Max EPS beat(4)769.36%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)100.72%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)64.91%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)243.87%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.11%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.3%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.93%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.05%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.3%
Max Revenue beat(4)4.34%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.79%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.53%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)2.09%
PT rev (1m)-5.82%
PT rev (3m)-2.18%
EPS NQ rev (1m)20.26%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-384.86%
EPS NY rev (1m)5.08%
EPS NY rev (3m)61.12%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.14%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-6.86%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.03%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.96%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.98 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.49 | ||
| P/S | 0.11 | ||
| P/FCF | 3.22 | ||
| P/OCF | 1.45 | ||
| P/B | 1.17 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 3.73 |
EPS(TTM)0.51
EY9.11%
EPS(NY)0.53
Fwd EY9.53%
FCF(TTM)1.74
FCFY31.03%
OCF(TTM)3.87
OCFY69.16%
SpS52.09
BVpS4.79
TBVpS-0.56
PEG (NY)2.35
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.67% | ||
| ROE | 6.01% | ||
| ROCE | 6.99% | ||
| ROIC | 5.52% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.44% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.93% | ||
| OM | 4.43% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.55% | ||
| GM | 12.1% | ||
| FCFM | 3.34% |
ROA(3y)0.39%
ROA(5y)-1.64%
ROE(3y)3.42%
ROE(5y)-28%
ROIC(3y)4.62%
ROIC(5y)4.36%
ROICexc(3y)5.31%
ROICexc(5y)4.98%
ROICexgc(3y)6.63%
ROICexgc(5y)6.27%
ROCE(3y)5.85%
ROCE(5y)5.52%
ROICexcg growth 3Y2.99%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-4.38%
ROICexc growth 3Y4.2%
ROICexc growth 5Y-1.31%
OM growth 3Y-7.92%
OM growth 5Y-8.14%
PM growth 3Y70.91%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-4.77%
GM growth 5Y-2.62%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover1.21
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.58 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 12.85 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.48 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 53.46% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.1% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.47 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 61.45% | ||
| Profit Quality | 604.44% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.63 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.25 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.59 |
F-Score8
WACC7.29%
ROIC/WACC0.76
Cap/Depr(3y)43.16%
Cap/Depr(5y)40.82%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.45%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.69%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)666.67%
EPS 3Y-17.85%
EPS 5Y-20.64%
EPS Q2Q%33.33%
EPS Next Y4.68%
EPS Next 2Y6.62%
EPS Next 3Y16.25%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.75%
Revenue growth 3Y5.9%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.28%
Sales Q2Q%-5.62%
Revenue Next Year-3.82%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.25%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y57.97%
EBIT growth 3Y-2.49%
EBIT growth 5Y-9.31%
EBIT Next Year177.91%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y2.46%
FCF growth 3Y-16.99%
FCF growth 5Y10.25%
OCF growth 1Y14.97%
OCF growth 3Y-5.43%
OCF growth 5Y-4.04%