AMERICAN AXLE & MFG HOLDINGS (AXL) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:AXL • US0240611030

Current stock price

9 USD
+0.78 (+9.49%)
At close:
9.14 USD
+0.14 (+1.56%)
After Hours:

This AXL fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

4

1. AXL Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • AXL had positive earnings in the past year.
  • AXL had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AXL reported negative net income in multiple years.
  • Each year in the past 5 years AXL had a positive operating cash flow.
AXL Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAXL Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 200M -200M 400M -400M 600M

1.2 Ratios

  • The Return On Assets of AXL (0.75%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • AXL has a better Return On Equity (5.58%) than 67.44% of its industry peers.
  • The Return On Invested Capital of AXL (4.97%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for AXL is below the industry average of 9.26%.
  • The 3 year average ROIC (4.62%) for AXL is below the current ROIC(4.97%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.75%
ROE 5.58%
ROIC 4.97%
ROA(3y)0.39%
ROA(5y)-1.64%
ROE(3y)3.42%
ROE(5y)-28%
ROIC(3y)4.62%
ROIC(5y)4.36%
AXL Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAXL Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 -50 -100 -150

1.3 Margins

  • The Profit Margin of AXL (0.69%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • AXL's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 4.39%, AXL is in line with its industry, outperforming 53.49% of the companies in the same industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AXL has declined.
  • AXL has a Gross Margin of 12.31%. This is in the lower half of the industry: AXL underperforms 74.42% of its industry peers.
  • AXL's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 4.39%
PM (TTM) 0.69%
GM 12.31%
OM growth 3Y-7.92%
OM growth 5Y-8.14%
PM growth 3Y70.91%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-4.77%
GM growth 5Y-2.62%
AXL Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAXL Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 10 -10

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3

2. AXL Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • AXL has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for AXL has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
  • The number of shares outstanding for AXL has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
  • The debt/assets ratio for AXL has remained at the same level compared to a year ago.
AXL Yearly Shares OutstandingAXL Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20M 40M 60M 80M 100M
AXL Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAXL Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2B 4B 6B

2.2 Solvency

  • AXL has an Altman-Z score of 1.56. This is a bad value and indicates that AXL is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.56, AXL is in line with its industry, outperforming 48.84% of the companies in the same industry.
  • AXL has a debt to FCF ratio of 16.22. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as AXL would need 16.22 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • AXL has a Debt to FCF ratio (16.22) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 3.61 is on the high side and indicates that AXL has dependencies on debt financing.
  • AXL has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (3.61) than 88.37% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.61
Debt/FCF 16.22
Altman-Z 1.56
ROIC/WACC0.61
WACC8.11%
AXL Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAXL Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1B 2B 3B

2.3 Liquidity

  • AXL has a Current Ratio of 1.77. This is a normal value and indicates that AXL is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • The Current ratio of AXL (1.77) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • AXL has a Quick Ratio of 1.43. This is a normal value and indicates that AXL is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • AXL has a Quick ratio of 1.43. This is in the better half of the industry: AXL outperforms 65.12% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.77
Quick Ratio 1.43
AXL Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAXL Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B 2B

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3

3. AXL Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • AXL shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -16.67%.
  • AXL shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -20.64% yearly.
  • The Revenue has decreased by -6.02% in the past year.
  • The Revenue has been decreasing by -1.28% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-16.67%
EPS 3Y-17.85%
EPS 5Y-20.64%
EPS Q2Q%-20%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.02%
Revenue growth 3Y5.9%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.28%
Sales Q2Q%0.03%

3.2 Future

  • Based on estimates for the next years, AXL will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 30.48% on average per year.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, AXL will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 1.46% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-15.68%
EPS Next 2Y12.2%
EPS Next 3Y22.24%
EPS Next 5Y30.48%
Revenue Next Year-4.43%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.78%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.23%
Revenue Next 5Y1.46%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
  • The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
AXL Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAXL Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2B 4B 6B
AXL Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAXL Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 1 2 3

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5

4. AXL Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • AXL is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 22.50.
  • The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as AXL.
  • When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AXL to the average of the S&P500 Index (24.88), we can say AXL is valued inline with the index average.
  • The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 14.02, which indicates a correct valuation of AXL.
  • AXL's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
  • AXL is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.19, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 22.5
Fwd PE 14.02
AXL Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAXL Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AXL is valued cheaply inside the industry as 93.02% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of AXL indicates a rather cheap valuation: AXL is cheaper than 93.02% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 6.62
EV/EBITDA 4.16
AXL Per share dataAXL EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30 40

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • AXL's earnings are expected to grow with 22.24% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y12.2%
EPS Next 3Y22.24%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

0

5. AXL Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • AXL does not give a dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%

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AXL Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

AMERICAN AXLE & MFG HOLDINGS

NYSE:AXL (2/4/2026, 8:04:32 PM)

After market: 9.14 +0.14 (+1.56%)

9

+0.78 (+9.49%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobile Components
Earnings (Last)11-07
Earnings (Next)02-13
Inst OwnersN/A
Inst Owner Change6.32%
Ins OwnersN/A
Ins Owner Change32.2%
Market Cap1.07B
Revenue(TTM)5.83B
Net Income(TTM)40.10M
Analysts70
Price Target9.97 (10.78%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)23.15%
Min EPS beat(2)14.91%
Max EPS beat(2)31.39%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)77.08%
Min EPS beat(4)14.91%
Max EPS beat(4)227.01%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)213.37%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)17.6%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)36.69%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.74%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.81%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.68%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.43%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.81%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.37%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.28%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.24%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.36%
PT rev (1m)32.35%
PT rev (3m)42.96%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-245.1%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.29%
EPS NY rev (3m)-8.61%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.5%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.35%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.1%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.03%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 22.5
Fwd PE 14.02
P/S 0.18
P/FCF 6.62
P/OCF 2.42
P/B 1.49
P/tB 7.2
EV/EBITDA 4.16
EPS(TTM)0.4
EY4.44%
EPS(NY)0.64
Fwd EY7.13%
FCF(TTM)1.36
FCFY15.1%
OCF(TTM)3.73
OCFY41.4%
SpS49.15
BVpS6.05
TBVpS1.25
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number7.38
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.75%
ROE 5.58%
ROCE 6.29%
ROIC 4.97%
ROICexc 6.02%
ROICexgc 7.26%
OM 4.39%
PM (TTM) 0.69%
GM 12.31%
FCFM 2.77%
ROA(3y)0.39%
ROA(5y)-1.64%
ROE(3y)3.42%
ROE(5y)-28%
ROIC(3y)4.62%
ROIC(5y)4.36%
ROICexc(3y)5.31%
ROICexc(5y)4.98%
ROICexgc(3y)6.63%
ROICexgc(5y)6.27%
ROCE(3y)5.85%
ROCE(5y)5.52%
ROICexgc growth 3Y2.99%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-4.38%
ROICexc growth 3Y4.2%
ROICexc growth 5Y-1.31%
OM growth 3Y-7.92%
OM growth 5Y-8.14%
PM growth 3Y70.91%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-4.77%
GM growth 5Y-2.62%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover1.09
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.61
Debt/FCF 16.22
Debt/EBITDA 3.64
Cap/Depr 61.43%
Cap/Sales 4.82%
Interest Coverage 1.56
Cash Conversion 61.98%
Profit Quality 402.24%
Current Ratio 1.77
Quick Ratio 1.43
Altman-Z 1.56
F-Score8
WACC8.11%
ROIC/WACC0.61
Cap/Depr(3y)43.16%
Cap/Depr(5y)40.82%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.45%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.69%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-16.67%
EPS 3Y-17.85%
EPS 5Y-20.64%
EPS Q2Q%-20%
EPS Next Y-15.68%
EPS Next 2Y12.2%
EPS Next 3Y22.24%
EPS Next 5Y30.48%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.02%
Revenue growth 3Y5.9%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.28%
Sales Q2Q%0.03%
Revenue Next Year-4.43%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.78%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.23%
Revenue Next 5Y1.46%
EBIT growth 1Y-3.21%
EBIT growth 3Y-2.49%
EBIT growth 5Y-9.31%
EBIT Next Year186.84%
EBIT Next 3Y44.38%
EBIT Next 5Y26.35%
FCF growth 1Y-45.43%
FCF growth 3Y-16.99%
FCF growth 5Y10.25%
OCF growth 1Y-10.05%
OCF growth 3Y-5.43%
OCF growth 5Y-4.04%

AMERICAN AXLE & MFG HOLDINGS / AXL Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for AMERICAN AXLE & MFG HOLDINGS?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AXL.


What is the valuation status for AXL stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to AMERICAN AXLE & MFG HOLDINGS (AXL). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


What is the profitability of AXL stock?

AMERICAN AXLE & MFG HOLDINGS (AXL) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.


What is the valuation of AMERICAN AXLE & MFG HOLDINGS based on its PE and PB ratios?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for AMERICAN AXLE & MFG HOLDINGS (AXL) is 22.5 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.49.


How financially healthy is AMERICAN AXLE & MFG HOLDINGS?

The financial health rating of AMERICAN AXLE & MFG HOLDINGS (AXL) is 2 / 10.