AMERICAN AXLE & MFG HOLDINGS (AXL) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:AXL • US0240611030

Current stock price

9 USD
+0.78 (+9.49%)
At close:
9.14 USD
+0.14 (+1.56%)
After Hours:

This AXL fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

4

1. AXL Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year AXL was profitable.
  • AXL had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • In multiple years AXL reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
  • In the past 5 years AXL always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
AXL Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAXL Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 200M -200M 400M -400M 600M

1.2 Ratios

  • The Return On Assets of AXL (0.75%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • AXL has a Return On Equity of 5.58%. This is in the better half of the industry: AXL outperforms 67.44% of its industry peers.
  • With a Return On Invested Capital value of 4.97%, AXL perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 48.84% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for AXL is below the industry average of 9.26%.
  • The 3 year average ROIC (4.62%) for AXL is below the current ROIC(4.97%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.75%
ROE 5.58%
ROIC 4.97%
ROA(3y)0.39%
ROA(5y)-1.64%
ROE(3y)3.42%
ROE(5y)-28%
ROIC(3y)4.62%
ROIC(5y)4.36%
AXL Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAXL Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 -50 -100 -150

1.3 Margins

  • AXL has a Profit Margin (0.69%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AXL has grown nicely.
  • The Operating Margin of AXL (4.39%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AXL has declined.
  • With a Gross Margin value of 12.31%, AXL is not doing good in the industry: 74.42% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AXL has declined.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 4.39%
PM (TTM) 0.69%
GM 12.31%
OM growth 3Y-7.92%
OM growth 5Y-8.14%
PM growth 3Y70.91%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-4.77%
GM growth 5Y-2.62%
AXL Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAXL Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 10 -10

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3

2. AXL Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • AXL has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, AXL has more shares outstanding
  • The number of shares outstanding for AXL has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
  • The debt/assets ratio for AXL has remained at the same level compared to a year ago.
AXL Yearly Shares OutstandingAXL Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20M 40M 60M 80M 100M
AXL Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAXL Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2B 4B 6B

2.2 Solvency

  • Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.56, we must say that AXL is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • With a Altman-Z score value of 1.56, AXL perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 48.84% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of AXL is 16.22, which is on the high side as it means it would take AXL, 16.22 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • AXL has a Debt to FCF ratio of 16.22. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AXL outperforms 46.51% of its industry peers.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 3.61 is on the high side and indicates that AXL has dependencies on debt financing.
  • Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 3.61, AXL is doing worse than 88.37% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.61
Debt/FCF 16.22
Altman-Z 1.56
ROIC/WACC0.61
WACC8.11%
AXL Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAXL Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1B 2B 3B

2.3 Liquidity

  • AXL has a Current Ratio of 1.77. This is a normal value and indicates that AXL is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • The Current ratio of AXL (1.77) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • AXL has a Quick Ratio of 1.43. This is a normal value and indicates that AXL is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 1.43, AXL is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 65.12% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.77
Quick Ratio 1.43
AXL Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAXL Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B 2B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

3

3. AXL Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The earnings per share for AXL have decreased strongly by -16.67% in the last year.
  • The earnings per share for AXL have been decreasing by -20.64% on average. This is quite bad
  • AXL shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -6.02%.
  • Measured over the past years, AXL shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -1.28% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-16.67%
EPS 3Y-17.85%
EPS 5Y-20.64%
EPS Q2Q%-20%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.02%
Revenue growth 3Y5.9%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.28%
Sales Q2Q%0.03%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 30.48% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
  • AXL is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 1.46% yearly.
EPS Next Y-15.68%
EPS Next 2Y12.2%
EPS Next 3Y22.24%
EPS Next 5Y30.48%
Revenue Next Year-4.43%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.78%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.23%
Revenue Next 5Y1.46%

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
AXL Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAXL Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2B 4B 6B
AXL Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAXL Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 1 2 3

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5

4. AXL Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • With a Price/Earnings ratio of 22.50, AXL is valued on the expensive side.
  • AXL's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 25.51. AXL is around the same levels.
  • A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.02 indicates a correct valuation of AXL.
  • AXL's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
  • AXL is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.76, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 22.5
Fwd PE 14.02
AXL Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAXL Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AXL is valued cheaply inside the industry as 93.02% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • 93.02% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AXL, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 6.62
EV/EBITDA 4.16
AXL Per share dataAXL EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30 40

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • A more expensive valuation may be justified as AXL's earnings are expected to grow with 22.24% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y12.2%
EPS Next 3Y22.24%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

0

5. AXL Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • AXL does not give a dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%

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AXL Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

AMERICAN AXLE & MFG HOLDINGS

NYSE:AXL (2/4/2026, 8:04:32 PM)

After market: 9.14 +0.14 (+1.56%)

9

+0.78 (+9.49%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobile Components
Earnings (Last)11-07
Earnings (Next)02-13
Inst OwnersN/A
Inst Owner Change6.32%
Ins OwnersN/A
Ins Owner Change32.2%
Market Cap1.07B
Revenue(TTM)5.83B
Net Income(TTM)40.10M
Analysts70
Price Target9.97 (10.78%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)23.15%
Min EPS beat(2)14.91%
Max EPS beat(2)31.39%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)77.08%
Min EPS beat(4)14.91%
Max EPS beat(4)227.01%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)213.37%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)17.6%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)36.69%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.74%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.81%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.68%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.43%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.81%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.37%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.28%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.24%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.36%
PT rev (1m)32.35%
PT rev (3m)42.96%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-245.1%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.29%
EPS NY rev (3m)-8.61%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.5%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.35%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.1%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.03%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 22.5
Fwd PE 14.02
P/S 0.18
P/FCF 6.62
P/OCF 2.42
P/B 1.49
P/tB 7.2
EV/EBITDA 4.16
EPS(TTM)0.4
EY4.44%
EPS(NY)0.64
Fwd EY7.13%
FCF(TTM)1.36
FCFY15.1%
OCF(TTM)3.73
OCFY41.4%
SpS49.15
BVpS6.05
TBVpS1.25
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number7.38
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.75%
ROE 5.58%
ROCE 6.29%
ROIC 4.97%
ROICexc 6.02%
ROICexgc 7.26%
OM 4.39%
PM (TTM) 0.69%
GM 12.31%
FCFM 2.77%
ROA(3y)0.39%
ROA(5y)-1.64%
ROE(3y)3.42%
ROE(5y)-28%
ROIC(3y)4.62%
ROIC(5y)4.36%
ROICexc(3y)5.31%
ROICexc(5y)4.98%
ROICexgc(3y)6.63%
ROICexgc(5y)6.27%
ROCE(3y)5.85%
ROCE(5y)5.52%
ROICexgc growth 3Y2.99%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-4.38%
ROICexc growth 3Y4.2%
ROICexc growth 5Y-1.31%
OM growth 3Y-7.92%
OM growth 5Y-8.14%
PM growth 3Y70.91%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-4.77%
GM growth 5Y-2.62%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover1.09
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.61
Debt/FCF 16.22
Debt/EBITDA 3.64
Cap/Depr 61.43%
Cap/Sales 4.82%
Interest Coverage 1.56
Cash Conversion 61.98%
Profit Quality 402.24%
Current Ratio 1.77
Quick Ratio 1.43
Altman-Z 1.56
F-Score8
WACC8.11%
ROIC/WACC0.61
Cap/Depr(3y)43.16%
Cap/Depr(5y)40.82%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.45%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.69%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-16.67%
EPS 3Y-17.85%
EPS 5Y-20.64%
EPS Q2Q%-20%
EPS Next Y-15.68%
EPS Next 2Y12.2%
EPS Next 3Y22.24%
EPS Next 5Y30.48%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.02%
Revenue growth 3Y5.9%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.28%
Sales Q2Q%0.03%
Revenue Next Year-4.43%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.78%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.23%
Revenue Next 5Y1.46%
EBIT growth 1Y-3.21%
EBIT growth 3Y-2.49%
EBIT growth 5Y-9.31%
EBIT Next Year186.84%
EBIT Next 3Y44.38%
EBIT Next 5Y26.35%
FCF growth 1Y-45.43%
FCF growth 3Y-16.99%
FCF growth 5Y10.25%
OCF growth 1Y-10.05%
OCF growth 3Y-5.43%
OCF growth 5Y-4.04%

AMERICAN AXLE & MFG HOLDINGS / AXL Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for AMERICAN AXLE & MFG HOLDINGS?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AXL.


What is the valuation status for AXL stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to AMERICAN AXLE & MFG HOLDINGS (AXL). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


Can you provide the profitability details for AMERICAN AXLE & MFG HOLDINGS?

AMERICAN AXLE & MFG HOLDINGS (AXL) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.


Can you provide the expected EPS growth for AXL stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of AMERICAN AXLE & MFG HOLDINGS (AXL) is expected to decline by -15.68% in the next year.