AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AVB - US0534841012 - REIT
179.37 USD
-4.71 (-2.56%)
179.37 USD
0 (0%)
Taking everything into account, AVB scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AVB was compared to 20 industry peers in the Residential REITs industry. AVB scores excellent on profitability, but there are concerns on its financial health. AVB is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AVB was profitable.
AVB had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years AVB has been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years AVB had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
With a decent Return On Assets value of 5.31%, AVB is doing good in the industry, outperforming 75.00% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Equity of AVB (9.77%) is better than 75.00% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of AVB (3.46%) is better than 85.00% of its industry peers.
AVB had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 3.44%. This is in line with the industry average of 2.59%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (3.46%) for AVB is above the 3 year average (3.44%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.31% | ||
| ROE | 9.77% | ||
| ROIC | 3.46% |
ROA(3y)5.06%
ROA(5y)4.9%
ROE(3y)9%
ROE(5y)8.77%
ROIC(3y)3.44%
ROIC(5y)3.18%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 38.71%, AVB belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AVB's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 30.35%, AVB belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 90.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AVB's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 62.81%, AVB is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 80.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AVB's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 30.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 38.71% | ||
| GM | 62.81% |
OM growth 3Y5.59%
OM growth 5Y-2.68%
PM growth 3Y-5.32%
PM growth 5Y1.91%
GM growth 3Y0.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.16%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AVB is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AVB remains at a similar level compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for AVB has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for AVB has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 1.83 indicates that AVB is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.83, AVB belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 90.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AVB has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.73. This is a neutral value indicating AVB is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
AVB has a better Debt to Equity ratio (0.73) than 80.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.73 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.83 |
ROIC/WACC0.48
WACC7.2%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.12 indicates that AVB may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of AVB (0.12) is worse than 70.00% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.12 indicates that AVB may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of AVB (0.12) is worse than 70.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.12 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.12 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 12.18% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 6.12% on average over the past years.
AVB shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 4.71%.
Measured over the past years, AVB shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 4.62% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)12.18%
EPS 3Y17.41%
EPS 5Y6.12%
EPS Q2Q%2.68%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.71%
Revenue growth 3Y8.28%
Revenue growth 5Y4.62%
Sales Q2Q%4.67%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -4.50% on average over the next years.
Based on estimates for the next years, AVB will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 6.12% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-9.75%
EPS Next 2Y-15.46%
EPS Next 3Y-8.93%
EPS Next 5Y-4.5%
Revenue Next Year4.64%
Revenue Next 2Y4.39%
Revenue Next 3Y4.75%
Revenue Next 5Y6.12%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
AVB is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 21.87.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AVB is valued cheaper than 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AVB is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.19, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
AVB is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 33.07.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AVB indicates a rather cheap valuation: AVB is cheaper than 90.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
AVB is valuated rather expensively when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 23.88, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21.87 | ||
| Fwd PE | 33.07 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AVB is valued a bit more expensive than 65.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 19.16 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AVB has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as AVB's earnings are expected to decrease with -8.93% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.57
EPS Next 2Y-15.46%
EPS Next 3Y-8.93%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AVB has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.80%.
AVB's Dividend Yield is slightly below the industry average, which is at 32.53.
AVB's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 1.90.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.8% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AVB has a limited annual growth rate of 2.45%.
AVB has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AVB has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)2.45%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years26
5.3 Sustainability
84.41% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AVB. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The Dividend Rate of AVB has been growing, while earnings will be declining. This means the dividend growth is most likely not sustainable.
DP84.41%
EPS Next 2Y-15.46%
EPS Next 3Y-8.93%
179.37
-4.71 (-2.56%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorReal Estate
GICS IndustryGroupEquity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
GICS IndustryResidential REITs
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners96.8%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0.08%
Market Cap25.40B
Revenue(TTM)3.01B
Net Income(TTM)1.17B
Analysts71.11
Price Target206.53 (15.14%)
Short Float %3.88%
Short Ratio5.41
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.8% |
Yearly Dividend6.77
Dividend Growth(5Y)2.45%
DP84.41%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years26
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)65.62%
Min EPS beat(2)47.2%
Max EPS beat(2)84.04%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)48.94%
Min EPS beat(4)23.58%
Max EPS beat(4)84.04%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)42.89%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)27.14%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)40.03%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.19%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.31%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.07%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.09%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.31%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.86%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.96%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.78%
Revenue beat(16)1
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.11%
PT rev (1m)-1.85%
PT rev (3m)-6.69%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-6.64%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-9.31%
EPS NY rev (1m)5.88%
EPS NY rev (3m)9.63%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.59%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.38%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.07%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21.87 | ||
| Fwd PE | 33.07 | ||
| P/S | 8.43 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 15.88 | ||
| P/B | 2.13 | ||
| P/tB | 2.13 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 19.16 |
EPS(TTM)8.2
EY4.57%
EPS(NY)5.42
Fwd EY3.02%
FCF(TTM)-4.12
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)11.3
OCFY6.3%
SpS21.28
BVpS84.31
TBVpS84.31
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.57
Graham Number124.72
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.31% | ||
| ROE | 9.77% | ||
| ROCE | 4.38% | ||
| ROIC | 3.46% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.48% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.63% | ||
| OM | 30.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 38.71% | ||
| GM | 62.81% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)5.06%
ROA(5y)4.9%
ROE(3y)9%
ROE(5y)8.77%
ROIC(3y)3.44%
ROIC(5y)3.18%
ROICexc(3y)3.5%
ROICexc(5y)3.24%
ROICexgc(3y)3.51%
ROICexgc(5y)3.24%
ROCE(3y)4.35%
ROCE(5y)4.03%
ROICexgc growth 3Y11.75%
ROICexgc growth 5Y0.03%
ROICexc growth 3Y11.82%
ROICexc growth 5Y0.06%
OM growth 3Y5.59%
OM growth 5Y-2.68%
PM growth 3Y-5.32%
PM growth 5Y1.91%
GM growth 3Y0.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.16%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.14
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.73 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 4.83 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 243.72% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 72.43% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 3.79 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 88.36% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.12 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.12 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.83 |
F-Score6
WACC7.2%
ROIC/WACC0.48
Cap/Depr(3y)183.94%
Cap/Depr(5y)179.75%
Cap/Sales(3y)55.28%
Cap/Sales(5y)55.46%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)12.18%
EPS 3Y17.41%
EPS 5Y6.12%
EPS Q2Q%2.68%
EPS Next Y-9.75%
EPS Next 2Y-15.46%
EPS Next 3Y-8.93%
EPS Next 5Y-4.5%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.71%
Revenue growth 3Y8.28%
Revenue growth 5Y4.62%
Sales Q2Q%4.67%
Revenue Next Year4.64%
Revenue Next 2Y4.39%
Revenue Next 3Y4.75%
Revenue Next 5Y6.12%
EBIT growth 1Y-0.11%
EBIT growth 3Y14.34%
EBIT growth 5Y1.82%
EBIT Next Year79.68%
EBIT Next 3Y25.26%
EBIT Next 5Y17.18%
FCF growth 1Y-309.73%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y2.84%
OCF growth 3Y10.15%
OCF growth 5Y4%
AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC / AVB FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to AVB.
What is the valuation status of AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB). This can be considered as Overvalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC?
AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
What is the valuation of AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC based on its PE and PB ratios?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) is 21.87 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.13.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for AVB stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) is expected to decline by -9.75% in the next year.