AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AVB - US0534841012 - REIT
181.94 USD
+0.07 (+0.04%)
181.94 USD
0 (0%)
AVB gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 20 industry peers in the Residential REITs industry. While AVB has a great profitability rating, there are quite some concerns on its financial health. AVB is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AVB had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AVB had a positive cash flow from operations.
AVB had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years AVB had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
AVB has a better Return On Assets (5.31%) than 75.00% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of AVB (9.77%) is better than 75.00% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 3.46%, AVB belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AVB had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 3.44%. This is in line with the industry average of 2.59%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (3.46%) for AVB is above the 3 year average (3.44%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.31% | ||
| ROE | 9.77% | ||
| ROIC | 3.46% |
ROA(3y)5.06%
ROA(5y)4.9%
ROE(3y)9%
ROE(5y)8.77%
ROIC(3y)3.44%
ROIC(5y)3.18%
1.3 Margins
AVB's Profit Margin of 38.71% is amongst the best of the industry. AVB outperforms 85.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AVB has grown nicely.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 30.35%, AVB belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 90.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AVB's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 62.81%, AVB is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 80.00% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AVB has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 30.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 38.71% | ||
| GM | 62.81% |
OM growth 3Y5.59%
OM growth 5Y-2.68%
PM growth 3Y-5.32%
PM growth 5Y1.91%
GM growth 3Y0.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.16%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AVB is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AVB remains at a similar level compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, AVB has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, AVB has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
AVB has an Altman-Z score of 1.82. This is not the best score and indicates that AVB is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
AVB has a Altman-Z score of 1.82. This is amongst the best in the industry. AVB outperforms 90.00% of its industry peers.
AVB has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.73. This is a neutral value indicating AVB is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
AVB's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.73 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AVB outperforms 80.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.73 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.82 |
ROIC/WACC0.49
WACC7.1%
2.3 Liquidity
AVB has a Current Ratio of 0.12. This is a bad value and indicates that AVB is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AVB has a worse Current ratio (0.12) than 70.00% of its industry peers.
AVB has a Quick Ratio of 0.12. This is a bad value and indicates that AVB is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AVB has a Quick ratio of 0.12. This is in the lower half of the industry: AVB underperforms 70.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.12 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.12 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AVB shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 12.18%, which is quite good.
AVB shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 6.12% yearly.
AVB shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 4.71%.
Measured over the past years, AVB shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 4.62% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)12.18%
EPS 3Y17.41%
EPS 5Y6.12%
EPS Q2Q%2.68%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.71%
Revenue growth 3Y8.28%
Revenue growth 5Y4.62%
Sales Q2Q%4.67%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -4.50% on average over the next years.
AVB is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 6.12% yearly.
EPS Next Y-18.52%
EPS Next 2Y-14.5%
EPS Next 3Y-7.93%
EPS Next 5Y-4.5%
Revenue Next Year4.71%
Revenue Next 2Y4.83%
Revenue Next 3Y5.02%
Revenue Next 5Y6.12%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 22.19, AVB is valued on the expensive side.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AVB is valued cheaper than 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.31, AVB is valued at the same level.
AVB is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 32.79.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AVB is valued cheaply inside the industry as 90.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
AVB's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 36.59.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22.19 | ||
| Fwd PE | 32.79 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AVB is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 60.00% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 19.07 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AVB has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as AVB's earnings are expected to decrease with -7.93% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.63
EPS Next 2Y-14.5%
EPS Next 3Y-7.93%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AVB has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.95%.
AVB's Dividend Yield is slightly below the industry average, which is at 7.26.
AVB's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.40.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.95% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AVB has a limited annual growth rate of 2.45%.
AVB has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AVB has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)2.45%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years26
5.3 Sustainability
84.41% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AVB. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
AVB's earnings are declining while the Dividend Rate has been growing. This means the dividend growth is most likely not sustainable.
DP84.41%
EPS Next 2Y-14.5%
EPS Next 3Y-7.93%
181.94
+0.07 (+0.04%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorReal Estate
GICS IndustryGroupEquity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
GICS IndustryResidential REITs
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners95.39%
Inst Owner Change2.85%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change-0.29%
Market Cap25.90B
Revenue(TTM)3.01B
Net Income(TTM)1.17B
Analysts71.85
Price Target210.42 (15.65%)
Short Float %3.09%
Short Ratio4.96
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.95% |
Yearly Dividend6.77
Dividend Growth(5Y)2.45%
DP84.41%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years26
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)65.62%
Min EPS beat(2)47.2%
Max EPS beat(2)84.04%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)48.94%
Min EPS beat(4)23.58%
Max EPS beat(4)84.04%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)42.89%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)27.14%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)40.03%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.19%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.31%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.07%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.09%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.31%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.86%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.96%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.78%
Revenue beat(16)1
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.11%
PT rev (1m)-4.94%
PT rev (3m)-5.83%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.31%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-0.49%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.62%
EPS NY rev (3m)3.79%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.51%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.76%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.03%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.07%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22.19 | ||
| Fwd PE | 32.79 | ||
| P/S | 8.6 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 16.2 | ||
| P/B | 2.17 | ||
| P/tB | 2.17 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 19.07 |
EPS(TTM)8.2
EY4.51%
EPS(NY)5.55
Fwd EY3.05%
FCF(TTM)-4.1
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)11.23
OCFY6.17%
SpS21.16
BVpS83.85
TBVpS83.85
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.63
Graham Number124.38
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.31% | ||
| ROE | 9.77% | ||
| ROCE | 4.38% | ||
| ROIC | 3.46% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.48% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.63% | ||
| OM | 30.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 38.71% | ||
| GM | 62.81% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)5.06%
ROA(5y)4.9%
ROE(3y)9%
ROE(5y)8.77%
ROIC(3y)3.44%
ROIC(5y)3.18%
ROICexc(3y)3.5%
ROICexc(5y)3.24%
ROICexgc(3y)3.51%
ROICexgc(5y)3.24%
ROCE(3y)4.35%
ROCE(5y)4.03%
ROICexgc growth 3Y11.75%
ROICexgc growth 5Y0.03%
ROICexc growth 3Y11.82%
ROICexc growth 5Y0.06%
OM growth 3Y5.59%
OM growth 5Y-2.68%
PM growth 3Y-5.32%
PM growth 5Y1.91%
GM growth 3Y0.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.16%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.14
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.73 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 4.83 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 243.72% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 72.43% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 3.79 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 88.36% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.12 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.12 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.82 |
F-Score6
WACC7.1%
ROIC/WACC0.49
Cap/Depr(3y)183.94%
Cap/Depr(5y)179.75%
Cap/Sales(3y)55.28%
Cap/Sales(5y)55.46%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)12.18%
EPS 3Y17.41%
EPS 5Y6.12%
EPS Q2Q%2.68%
EPS Next Y-18.52%
EPS Next 2Y-14.5%
EPS Next 3Y-7.93%
EPS Next 5Y-4.5%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.71%
Revenue growth 3Y8.28%
Revenue growth 5Y4.62%
Sales Q2Q%4.67%
Revenue Next Year4.71%
Revenue Next 2Y4.83%
Revenue Next 3Y5.02%
Revenue Next 5Y6.12%
EBIT growth 1Y-0.11%
EBIT growth 3Y14.34%
EBIT growth 5Y1.82%
EBIT Next Year80.15%
EBIT Next 3Y26.5%
EBIT Next 5Y17.18%
FCF growth 1Y-309.73%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y2.84%
OCF growth 3Y10.15%
OCF growth 5Y4%
AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC / AVB FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to AVB.
What is the valuation status for AVB stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB). This can be considered as Overvalued.
What is the profitability of AVB stock?
AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
Can you provide the financial health for AVB stock?
The financial health rating of AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) is 3 / 10.
Is the dividend of AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC sustainable?
The dividend rating of AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 84.41%.