AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AVB - US0534841012 - REIT
177.38 USD
+2.14 (+1.22%)
177.38 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to AVB. AVB was compared to 20 industry peers in the Residential REITs industry. While AVB has a great profitability rating, there are quite some concerns on its financial health. AVB is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AVB had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AVB had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years AVB has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years AVB had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 5.30%, AVB is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 80.00% of the companies in the same industry.
With a decent Return On Equity value of 9.69%, AVB is doing good in the industry, outperforming 80.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AVB has a better Return On Invested Capital (3.49%) than 85.00% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for AVB is in line with the industry average of 2.61%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (3.49%) for AVB is above the 3 year average (3.44%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.3% | ||
| ROE | 9.69% | ||
| ROIC | 3.49% |
ROA(3y)5.06%
ROA(5y)4.9%
ROE(3y)9%
ROE(5y)8.77%
ROIC(3y)3.44%
ROIC(5y)3.18%
1.3 Margins
AVB's Profit Margin of 38.84% is amongst the best of the industry. AVB outperforms 90.00% of its industry peers.
AVB's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
With an excellent Operating Margin value of 30.87%, AVB belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 90.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AVB's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AVB's Gross Margin of 63.00% is amongst the best of the industry. AVB outperforms 85.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AVB has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 30.87% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 38.84% | ||
| GM | 63% |
OM growth 3Y5.59%
OM growth 5Y-2.68%
PM growth 3Y-5.32%
PM growth 5Y1.91%
GM growth 3Y0.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.16%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AVB is destroying value.
AVB has about the same amout of shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
AVB has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AVB has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
AVB has an Altman-Z score of 1.78. This is a bad value and indicates that AVB is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
AVB has a better Altman-Z score (1.78) than 90.00% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.73 indicates that AVB is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.73, AVB is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 75.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.73 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.78 |
ROIC/WACC0.49
WACC7.14%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.10 indicates that AVB may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.10, AVB is doing worse than 70.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AVB has a Quick Ratio of 0.10. This is a bad value and indicates that AVB is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AVB has a Quick ratio of 0.10. This is in the lower half of the industry: AVB underperforms 70.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.1 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.1 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 12.18% over the past year.
Measured over the past 5 years, AVB shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 6.12% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, AVB shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 5.27% in the last year.
AVB shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 4.62% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)12.18%
EPS 3Y17.41%
EPS 5Y6.12%
EPS Q2Q%2.68%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.27%
Revenue growth 3Y8.28%
Revenue growth 5Y4.62%
Sales Q2Q%4.67%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AVB will show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will decrease by -4.50% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 6.12% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-18.52%
EPS Next 2Y-14.5%
EPS Next 3Y-7.93%
EPS Next 5Y-4.5%
Revenue Next Year4.71%
Revenue Next 2Y4.83%
Revenue Next 3Y5.02%
Revenue Next 5Y6.12%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 21.63 indicates a rather expensive valuation of AVB.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AVB is valued cheaper than 90.00% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AVB to the average of the S&P500 Index (25.83), we can say AVB is valued inline with the index average.
AVB is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 31.97.
95.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AVB, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 32.68, AVB is valued at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21.63 | ||
| Fwd PE | 31.97 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AVB is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 65.00% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 18.65 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AVB has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as AVB's earnings are expected to decrease with -7.93% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.54
EPS Next 2Y-14.5%
EPS Next 3Y-7.93%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AVB has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.99%.
AVB's Dividend Yield is slightly below the industry average, which is at 7.38.
AVB's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.37.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.99% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AVB has a limited annual growth rate of 2.45%.
AVB has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AVB has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)2.45%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years26
5.3 Sustainability
AVB pays out 84.31% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The Dividend Rate of AVB has been growing, while earnings will be declining. This means the dividend growth is most likely not sustainable.
DP84.31%
EPS Next 2Y-14.5%
EPS Next 3Y-7.93%
177.38
+2.14 (+1.22%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorReal Estate
GICS IndustryGroupEquity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
GICS IndustryResidential REITs
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners95.39%
Inst Owner Change-0.27%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change-0.22%
Market Cap25.26B
Revenue(TTM)2.91B
Net Income(TTM)1.16B
Analysts71.85
Price Target219.78 (23.9%)
Short Float %2.92%
Short Ratio5.13
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.99% |
Yearly Dividend6.77
Dividend Growth(5Y)2.45%
DP84.31%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years26
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)35.39%
Min EPS beat(2)23.58%
Max EPS beat(2)47.2%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)47.51%
Min EPS beat(4)23.58%
Max EPS beat(4)78.32%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)31.65%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)34.92%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)33.04%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.96%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.07%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.86%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.98%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.14%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.85%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.84%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.72%
Revenue beat(16)2
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.97%
PT rev (1m)-0.7%
PT rev (3m)-6.29%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.75%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-1.61%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.6%
EPS NY rev (3m)5.98%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.16%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.34%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.03%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.03%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21.63 | ||
| Fwd PE | 31.97 | ||
| P/S | 8.47 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 15.7 | ||
| P/B | 2.11 | ||
| P/tB | 2.11 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 18.65 |
EPS(TTM)8.2
EY4.62%
EPS(NY)5.55
Fwd EY3.13%
FCF(TTM)-3.23
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)11.3
OCFY6.37%
SpS20.94
BVpS83.91
TBVpS83.91
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.54
Graham Number124.43
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.3% | ||
| ROE | 9.69% | ||
| ROCE | 4.41% | ||
| ROIC | 3.49% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.5% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.5% | ||
| OM | 30.87% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 38.84% | ||
| GM | 63% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)5.06%
ROA(5y)4.9%
ROE(3y)9%
ROE(5y)8.77%
ROIC(3y)3.44%
ROIC(5y)3.18%
ROICexc(3y)3.5%
ROICexc(5y)3.24%
ROICexgc(3y)3.51%
ROICexgc(5y)3.24%
ROCE(3y)4.35%
ROCE(5y)4.03%
ROICexgc growth 3Y11.75%
ROICexgc growth 5Y0.03%
ROICexc growth 3Y11.82%
ROICexc growth 5Y0.06%
OM growth 3Y5.59%
OM growth 5Y-2.68%
PM growth 3Y-5.32%
PM growth 5Y1.91%
GM growth 3Y0.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.16%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.14
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.73 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 4.83 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 235.87% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 69.41% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 3.81 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 89.5% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.1 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.1 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.78 |
F-Score6
WACC7.14%
ROIC/WACC0.49
Cap/Depr(3y)183.94%
Cap/Depr(5y)179.75%
Cap/Sales(3y)55.28%
Cap/Sales(5y)55.46%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)12.18%
EPS 3Y17.41%
EPS 5Y6.12%
EPS Q2Q%2.68%
EPS Next Y-18.52%
EPS Next 2Y-14.5%
EPS Next 3Y-7.93%
EPS Next 5Y-4.5%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.27%
Revenue growth 3Y8.28%
Revenue growth 5Y4.62%
Sales Q2Q%4.67%
Revenue Next Year4.71%
Revenue Next 2Y4.83%
Revenue Next 3Y5.02%
Revenue Next 5Y6.12%
EBIT growth 1Y0.93%
EBIT growth 3Y14.34%
EBIT growth 5Y1.82%
EBIT Next Year80.15%
EBIT Next 3Y26.5%
EBIT Next 5Y17.18%
FCF growth 1Y-7774.93%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y5.52%
OCF growth 3Y10.15%
OCF growth 5Y4%
AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC / AVB FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to AVB.
What is the valuation status for AVB stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB). This can be considered as Overvalued.
What is the profitability of AVB stock?
AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
Can you provide the financial health for AVB stock?
The financial health rating of AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) is 2 / 10.
Is the dividend of AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC sustainable?
The dividend rating of AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 84.31%.