AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AVB - US0534841012 - REIT
178.39 USD
-0.98 (-0.55%)
178.39 USD
0 (0%)
AVB gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 20 industry peers in the Residential REITs industry. AVB scores excellent on profitability, but there are concerns on its financial health. AVB is valued expensive and it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AVB had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AVB had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years AVB has always been profitable.
AVB had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of AVB (5.31%) is better than 75.00% of its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Equity value of 9.77%, AVB is doing good in the industry, outperforming 75.00% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of AVB (3.46%) is better than 85.00% of its industry peers.
AVB had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 3.44%. This is in line with the industry average of 2.59%.
The 3 year average ROIC (3.44%) for AVB is below the current ROIC(3.46%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.31% | ||
| ROE | 9.77% | ||
| ROIC | 3.46% |
ROA(3y)5.06%
ROA(5y)4.9%
ROE(3y)9%
ROE(5y)8.77%
ROIC(3y)3.44%
ROIC(5y)3.18%
1.3 Margins
AVB has a Profit Margin of 38.71%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AVB outperforms 85.00% of its industry peers.
AVB's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
AVB has a better Operating Margin (30.35%) than 90.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AVB has declined.
AVB has a better Gross Margin (62.81%) than 80.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AVB has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 30.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 38.71% | ||
| GM | 62.81% |
OM growth 3Y5.59%
OM growth 5Y-2.68%
PM growth 3Y-5.32%
PM growth 5Y1.91%
GM growth 3Y0.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.16%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AVB is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AVB remains at a similar level compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, AVB has more shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for AVB has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
AVB has an Altman-Z score of 1.78. This is a bad value and indicates that AVB is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
AVB has a Altman-Z score of 1.78. This is amongst the best in the industry. AVB outperforms 90.00% of its industry peers.
AVB has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.73. This is a neutral value indicating AVB is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
AVB has a better Debt to Equity ratio (0.73) than 80.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.73 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.78 |
ROIC/WACC0.48
WACC7.19%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.12 indicates that AVB may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AVB has a Current ratio of 0.12. This is in the lower half of the industry: AVB underperforms 70.00% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.12 indicates that AVB may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.12, AVB is doing worse than 70.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.12 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.12 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AVB shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 12.18%, which is quite good.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 6.12% on average over the past years.
Looking at the last year, AVB shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 4.71% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.62% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)12.18%
EPS 3Y17.41%
EPS 5Y6.12%
EPS Q2Q%2.68%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.71%
Revenue growth 3Y8.28%
Revenue growth 5Y4.62%
Sales Q2Q%4.67%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -4.50% on average over the next years.
Based on estimates for the next years, AVB will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 5.45% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-9.75%
EPS Next 2Y-15.46%
EPS Next 3Y-8.93%
EPS Next 5Y-4.5%
Revenue Next Year4.64%
Revenue Next 2Y4.39%
Revenue Next 3Y4.75%
Revenue Next 5Y5.45%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 21.75, AVB is valued on the expensive side.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AVB indicates a rather cheap valuation: AVB is cheaper than 85.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.25, AVB is valued a bit cheaper.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 32.89, which means the current valuation is very expensive for AVB.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AVB is valued cheaply inside the industry as 95.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.98, AVB is valued a bit more expensive.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21.75 | ||
| Fwd PE | 32.89 |
4.2 Price Multiples
65.00% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than AVB, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 18.72 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The excellent profitability rating of AVB may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as AVB's earnings are expected to decrease with -8.93% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.56
EPS Next 2Y-15.46%
EPS Next 3Y-8.93%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AVB has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.80%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
AVB's Dividend Yield is slightly below the industry average, which is at 32.52.
AVB's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 1.92.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.8% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AVB has a limited annual growth rate of 2.45%.
AVB has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AVB has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)2.45%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years26
5.3 Sustainability
84.41% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AVB. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
AVB's earnings are declining while the Dividend Rate has been growing. This means the dividend growth is most likely not sustainable.
DP84.41%
EPS Next 2Y-15.46%
EPS Next 3Y-8.93%
178.39
-0.98 (-0.55%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorReal Estate
GICS IndustryGroupEquity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
GICS IndustryResidential REITs
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners96.8%
Inst Owner Change0.06%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0.08%
Market Cap25.26B
Revenue(TTM)3.01B
Net Income(TTM)1.17B
Analysts71.11
Price Target206.53 (15.77%)
Short Float %3.88%
Short Ratio5.41
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.8% |
Yearly Dividend6.77
Dividend Growth(5Y)2.45%
DP84.41%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years26
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)65.62%
Min EPS beat(2)47.2%
Max EPS beat(2)84.04%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)48.94%
Min EPS beat(4)23.58%
Max EPS beat(4)84.04%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)42.89%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)27.14%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)40.03%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.19%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.31%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.07%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.09%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.31%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.86%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.96%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.78%
Revenue beat(16)1
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.11%
PT rev (1m)-0.06%
PT rev (3m)-6.69%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-6.64%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-9.31%
EPS NY rev (1m)5.88%
EPS NY rev (3m)9.63%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.59%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.38%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.07%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21.75 | ||
| Fwd PE | 32.89 | ||
| P/S | 8.38 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 15.79 | ||
| P/B | 2.12 | ||
| P/tB | 2.12 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 18.72 |
EPS(TTM)8.2
EY4.6%
EPS(NY)5.42
Fwd EY3.04%
FCF(TTM)-4.12
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)11.3
OCFY6.33%
SpS21.28
BVpS84.31
TBVpS84.31
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.56
Graham Number124.72
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.31% | ||
| ROE | 9.77% | ||
| ROCE | 4.38% | ||
| ROIC | 3.46% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.48% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.63% | ||
| OM | 30.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 38.71% | ||
| GM | 62.81% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)5.06%
ROA(5y)4.9%
ROE(3y)9%
ROE(5y)8.77%
ROIC(3y)3.44%
ROIC(5y)3.18%
ROICexc(3y)3.5%
ROICexc(5y)3.24%
ROICexgc(3y)3.51%
ROICexgc(5y)3.24%
ROCE(3y)4.35%
ROCE(5y)4.03%
ROICexgc growth 3Y11.75%
ROICexgc growth 5Y0.03%
ROICexc growth 3Y11.82%
ROICexc growth 5Y0.06%
OM growth 3Y5.59%
OM growth 5Y-2.68%
PM growth 3Y-5.32%
PM growth 5Y1.91%
GM growth 3Y0.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.16%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.14
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.73 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 4.83 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 243.72% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 72.43% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 3.79 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 88.36% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.12 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.12 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.78 |
F-Score6
WACC7.19%
ROIC/WACC0.48
Cap/Depr(3y)183.94%
Cap/Depr(5y)179.75%
Cap/Sales(3y)55.28%
Cap/Sales(5y)55.46%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)12.18%
EPS 3Y17.41%
EPS 5Y6.12%
EPS Q2Q%2.68%
EPS Next Y-9.75%
EPS Next 2Y-15.46%
EPS Next 3Y-8.93%
EPS Next 5Y-4.5%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.71%
Revenue growth 3Y8.28%
Revenue growth 5Y4.62%
Sales Q2Q%4.67%
Revenue Next Year4.64%
Revenue Next 2Y4.39%
Revenue Next 3Y4.75%
Revenue Next 5Y5.45%
EBIT growth 1Y-0.11%
EBIT growth 3Y14.34%
EBIT growth 5Y1.82%
EBIT Next Year79.68%
EBIT Next 3Y25.26%
EBIT Next 5Y17.18%
FCF growth 1Y-309.73%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y2.84%
OCF growth 3Y10.15%
OCF growth 5Y4%
AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC / AVB FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AVB.
What is the valuation status of AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB). This can be considered as Overvalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC?
AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
What is the valuation of AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC based on its PE and PB ratios?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) is 21.75 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.12.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for AVB stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) is expected to decline by -9.75% in the next year.