AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AVB - US0534841012 - REIT
178.02 USD
-1.4 (-0.78%)
178.02 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to AVB. AVB was compared to 20 industry peers in the Residential REITs industry. While AVB has a great profitability rating, there are quite some concerns on its financial health. AVB is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AVB had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AVB had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years AVB has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years AVB had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 5.31%, AVB is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 75.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 9.77%, AVB is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 75.00% of the companies in the same industry.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 3.46%, AVB belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AVB had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 3.44%. This is in line with the industry average of 2.59%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (3.46%) for AVB is above the 3 year average (3.44%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.31% | ||
| ROE | 9.77% | ||
| ROIC | 3.46% |
ROA(3y)5.06%
ROA(5y)4.9%
ROE(3y)9%
ROE(5y)8.77%
ROIC(3y)3.44%
ROIC(5y)3.18%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 38.71%, AVB belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AVB's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 30.35%, AVB belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 90.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AVB's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AVB has a better Gross Margin (62.81%) than 80.00% of its industry peers.
AVB's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 30.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 38.71% | ||
| GM | 62.81% |
OM growth 3Y5.59%
OM growth 5Y-2.68%
PM growth 3Y-5.32%
PM growth 5Y1.91%
GM growth 3Y0.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.16%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AVB is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AVB remains at a similar level compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for AVB has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AVB has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.78, we must say that AVB is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
AVB's Altman-Z score of 1.78 is amongst the best of the industry. AVB outperforms 90.00% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.73 indicates that AVB is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
AVB has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.73. This is in the better half of the industry: AVB outperforms 80.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.73 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.78 |
ROIC/WACC0.48
WACC7.16%
2.3 Liquidity
AVB has a Current Ratio of 0.12. This is a bad value and indicates that AVB is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of AVB (0.12) is worse than 70.00% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.12 indicates that AVB may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.12, AVB is doing worse than 70.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.12 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.12 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 12.18% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 6.12% on average over the past years.
Looking at the last year, AVB shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 4.71% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.62% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)12.18%
EPS 3Y17.41%
EPS 5Y6.12%
EPS Q2Q%2.68%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.71%
Revenue growth 3Y8.28%
Revenue growth 5Y4.62%
Sales Q2Q%4.67%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -4.50% on average over the next years.
AVB is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 6.12% yearly.
EPS Next Y-14.76%
EPS Next 2Y-14.79%
EPS Next 3Y-8.18%
EPS Next 5Y-4.5%
Revenue Next Year4.64%
Revenue Next 2Y4.61%
Revenue Next 3Y4.93%
Revenue Next 5Y6.12%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 21.71, the valuation of AVB can be described as rather expensive.
AVB's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AVB is cheaper than 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AVB is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.49, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 32.30, AVB can be considered very expensive at the moment.
AVB's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AVB is cheaper than 95.00% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AVB to the average of the S&P500 Index (23.69), we can say AVB is valued slightly more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21.71 | ||
| Fwd PE | 32.3 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of AVB indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: AVB is more expensive than 60.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 18.69 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AVB has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as AVB's earnings are expected to decrease with -8.18% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.55
EPS Next 2Y-14.79%
EPS Next 3Y-8.18%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AVB has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.90%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 7.26, AVB is paying slightly less dividend.
AVB's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.31.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.9% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AVB has a limited annual growth rate of 2.45%.
AVB has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AVB has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)2.45%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years26
5.3 Sustainability
AVB pays out 84.41% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
AVB's earnings are declining while the Dividend Rate has been growing. This means the dividend growth is most likely not sustainable.
DP84.41%
EPS Next 2Y-14.79%
EPS Next 3Y-8.18%
178.02
-1.4 (-0.78%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorReal Estate
GICS IndustryGroupEquity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
GICS IndustryResidential REITs
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners96.83%
Inst Owner Change2.86%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change-1.36%
Market Cap25.21B
Revenue(TTM)3.01B
Net Income(TTM)1.17B
Analysts72.59
Price Target206.66 (16.09%)
Short Float %3.37%
Short Ratio5.27
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.9% |
Yearly Dividend6.77
Dividend Growth(5Y)2.45%
DP84.41%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years26
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)65.62%
Min EPS beat(2)47.2%
Max EPS beat(2)84.04%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)48.94%
Min EPS beat(4)23.58%
Max EPS beat(4)84.04%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)42.89%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)27.14%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)40.03%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.19%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.31%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.07%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.09%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.31%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.86%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.96%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.78%
Revenue beat(16)1
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.11%
PT rev (1m)-5.97%
PT rev (3m)-6.89%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-2.14%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-2.32%
EPS NY rev (1m)4.62%
EPS NY rev (3m)8.58%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.21%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.8%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.07%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.13%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21.71 | ||
| Fwd PE | 32.3 | ||
| P/S | 8.36 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 15.76 | ||
| P/B | 2.11 | ||
| P/tB | 2.11 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 18.69 |
EPS(TTM)8.2
EY4.61%
EPS(NY)5.51
Fwd EY3.1%
FCF(TTM)-4.12
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)11.3
OCFY6.35%
SpS21.28
BVpS84.31
TBVpS84.31
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.55
Graham Number124.72
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.31% | ||
| ROE | 9.77% | ||
| ROCE | 4.38% | ||
| ROIC | 3.46% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.48% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.63% | ||
| OM | 30.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 38.71% | ||
| GM | 62.81% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)5.06%
ROA(5y)4.9%
ROE(3y)9%
ROE(5y)8.77%
ROIC(3y)3.44%
ROIC(5y)3.18%
ROICexc(3y)3.5%
ROICexc(5y)3.24%
ROICexgc(3y)3.51%
ROICexgc(5y)3.24%
ROCE(3y)4.35%
ROCE(5y)4.03%
ROICexgc growth 3Y11.75%
ROICexgc growth 5Y0.03%
ROICexc growth 3Y11.82%
ROICexc growth 5Y0.06%
OM growth 3Y5.59%
OM growth 5Y-2.68%
PM growth 3Y-5.32%
PM growth 5Y1.91%
GM growth 3Y0.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.16%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.14
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.73 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 4.83 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 243.72% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 72.43% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 3.79 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 88.36% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.12 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.12 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.78 |
F-Score6
WACC7.16%
ROIC/WACC0.48
Cap/Depr(3y)183.94%
Cap/Depr(5y)179.75%
Cap/Sales(3y)55.28%
Cap/Sales(5y)55.46%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)12.18%
EPS 3Y17.41%
EPS 5Y6.12%
EPS Q2Q%2.68%
EPS Next Y-14.76%
EPS Next 2Y-14.79%
EPS Next 3Y-8.18%
EPS Next 5Y-4.5%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.71%
Revenue growth 3Y8.28%
Revenue growth 5Y4.62%
Sales Q2Q%4.67%
Revenue Next Year4.64%
Revenue Next 2Y4.61%
Revenue Next 3Y4.93%
Revenue Next 5Y6.12%
EBIT growth 1Y-0.11%
EBIT growth 3Y14.34%
EBIT growth 5Y1.82%
EBIT Next Year80.06%
EBIT Next 3Y25.66%
EBIT Next 5Y17.18%
FCF growth 1Y-309.73%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y2.84%
OCF growth 3Y10.15%
OCF growth 5Y4%
AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC / AVB FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to AVB.
What is the valuation status for AVB stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB). This can be considered as Overvalued.
What is the profitability of AVB stock?
AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
Can you provide the financial health for AVB stock?
The financial health rating of AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) is 2 / 10.
Is the dividend of AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC sustainable?
The dividend rating of AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 84.41%.