AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AVB - US0534841012 - REIT
179.37 USD
-4.71 (-2.56%)
179.37 USD
0 (0%)
Taking everything into account, AVB scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AVB was compared to 20 industry peers in the Residential REITs industry. While AVB belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are concerns on its financial health. AVB is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AVB was profitable.
In the past year AVB had a positive cash flow from operations.
AVB had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years AVB had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of AVB (5.31%) is better than 75.00% of its industry peers.
AVB has a Return On Equity of 9.77%. This is in the better half of the industry: AVB outperforms 75.00% of its industry peers.
AVB's Return On Invested Capital of 3.46% is amongst the best of the industry. AVB outperforms 85.00% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for AVB is in line with the industry average of 2.59%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (3.46%) for AVB is above the 3 year average (3.44%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.31% | ||
| ROE | 9.77% | ||
| ROIC | 3.46% |
ROA(3y)5.06%
ROA(5y)4.9%
ROE(3y)9%
ROE(5y)8.77%
ROIC(3y)3.44%
ROIC(5y)3.18%
1.3 Margins
With an excellent Profit Margin value of 38.71%, AVB belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AVB's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
AVB has a Operating Margin of 30.35%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AVB outperforms 90.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AVB has declined.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 62.81%, AVB is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 80.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AVB's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 30.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 38.71% | ||
| GM | 62.81% |
OM growth 3Y5.59%
OM growth 5Y-2.68%
PM growth 3Y-5.32%
PM growth 5Y1.91%
GM growth 3Y0.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.16%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AVB is destroying value.
AVB has about the same amout of shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for AVB has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for AVB has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 1.83 indicates that AVB is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
AVB's Altman-Z score of 1.83 is amongst the best of the industry. AVB outperforms 90.00% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.73 indicates that AVB is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
AVB has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.73. This is in the better half of the industry: AVB outperforms 80.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.73 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.83 |
ROIC/WACC0.48
WACC7.2%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.12 indicates that AVB may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of AVB (0.12) is worse than 70.00% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.12 indicates that AVB may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AVB's Quick ratio of 0.12 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AVB is outperformed by 70.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.12 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.12 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 12.18% over the past year.
AVB shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 6.12% yearly.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.71% in the past year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.62% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)12.18%
EPS 3Y17.41%
EPS 5Y6.12%
EPS Q2Q%2.68%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.71%
Revenue growth 3Y8.28%
Revenue growth 5Y4.62%
Sales Q2Q%4.67%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -4.50% on average over the next years.
Based on estimates for the next years, AVB will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 6.12% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-9.75%
EPS Next 2Y-15.46%
EPS Next 3Y-8.93%
EPS Next 5Y-4.5%
Revenue Next Year4.64%
Revenue Next 2Y4.39%
Revenue Next 3Y4.75%
Revenue Next 5Y6.12%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 21.87, the valuation of AVB can be described as rather expensive.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AVB is valued cheaply inside the industry as 85.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.19. AVB is around the same levels.
AVB is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 33.07.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AVB is valued cheaply inside the industry as 90.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AVB to the average of the S&P500 Index (23.88), we can say AVB is valued slightly more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21.87 | ||
| Fwd PE | 33.07 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AVB is valued a bit more expensive than 65.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 19.16 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AVB has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as AVB's earnings are expected to decrease with -8.93% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.57
EPS Next 2Y-15.46%
EPS Next 3Y-8.93%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AVB has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.80%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
AVB's Dividend Yield is slightly below the industry average, which is at 32.53.
AVB's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 1.90.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.8% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AVB has a limited annual growth rate of 2.45%.
AVB has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AVB has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)2.45%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years26
5.3 Sustainability
84.41% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AVB. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
AVB's earnings are declining while the Dividend Rate has been growing. This means the dividend growth is most likely not sustainable.
DP84.41%
EPS Next 2Y-15.46%
EPS Next 3Y-8.93%
179.37
-4.71 (-2.56%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorReal Estate
GICS IndustryGroupEquity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
GICS IndustryResidential REITs
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners96.8%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0.08%
Market Cap25.40B
Revenue(TTM)3.01B
Net Income(TTM)1.17B
Analysts71.11
Price Target206.53 (15.14%)
Short Float %3.88%
Short Ratio5.41
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.8% |
Yearly Dividend6.77
Dividend Growth(5Y)2.45%
DP84.41%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years26
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)65.62%
Min EPS beat(2)47.2%
Max EPS beat(2)84.04%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)48.94%
Min EPS beat(4)23.58%
Max EPS beat(4)84.04%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)42.89%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)27.14%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)40.03%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.19%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.31%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.07%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.09%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.31%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.86%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.96%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.78%
Revenue beat(16)1
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.11%
PT rev (1m)-1.85%
PT rev (3m)-6.69%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-6.64%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-9.31%
EPS NY rev (1m)5.88%
EPS NY rev (3m)9.63%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.59%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.38%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.07%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21.87 | ||
| Fwd PE | 33.07 | ||
| P/S | 8.43 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 15.88 | ||
| P/B | 2.13 | ||
| P/tB | 2.13 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 19.16 |
EPS(TTM)8.2
EY4.57%
EPS(NY)5.42
Fwd EY3.02%
FCF(TTM)-4.12
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)11.3
OCFY6.3%
SpS21.28
BVpS84.31
TBVpS84.31
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.57
Graham Number124.72
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.31% | ||
| ROE | 9.77% | ||
| ROCE | 4.38% | ||
| ROIC | 3.46% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.48% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.63% | ||
| OM | 30.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 38.71% | ||
| GM | 62.81% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)5.06%
ROA(5y)4.9%
ROE(3y)9%
ROE(5y)8.77%
ROIC(3y)3.44%
ROIC(5y)3.18%
ROICexc(3y)3.5%
ROICexc(5y)3.24%
ROICexgc(3y)3.51%
ROICexgc(5y)3.24%
ROCE(3y)4.35%
ROCE(5y)4.03%
ROICexgc growth 3Y11.75%
ROICexgc growth 5Y0.03%
ROICexc growth 3Y11.82%
ROICexc growth 5Y0.06%
OM growth 3Y5.59%
OM growth 5Y-2.68%
PM growth 3Y-5.32%
PM growth 5Y1.91%
GM growth 3Y0.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.16%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.14
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.73 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 4.83 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 243.72% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 72.43% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 3.79 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 88.36% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.12 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.12 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.83 |
F-Score6
WACC7.2%
ROIC/WACC0.48
Cap/Depr(3y)183.94%
Cap/Depr(5y)179.75%
Cap/Sales(3y)55.28%
Cap/Sales(5y)55.46%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)12.18%
EPS 3Y17.41%
EPS 5Y6.12%
EPS Q2Q%2.68%
EPS Next Y-9.75%
EPS Next 2Y-15.46%
EPS Next 3Y-8.93%
EPS Next 5Y-4.5%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.71%
Revenue growth 3Y8.28%
Revenue growth 5Y4.62%
Sales Q2Q%4.67%
Revenue Next Year4.64%
Revenue Next 2Y4.39%
Revenue Next 3Y4.75%
Revenue Next 5Y6.12%
EBIT growth 1Y-0.11%
EBIT growth 3Y14.34%
EBIT growth 5Y1.82%
EBIT Next Year79.68%
EBIT Next 3Y25.26%
EBIT Next 5Y17.18%
FCF growth 1Y-309.73%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y2.84%
OCF growth 3Y10.15%
OCF growth 5Y4%
AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC / AVB FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to AVB.
What is the valuation status of AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB). This can be considered as Overvalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC?
AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
What is the valuation of AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC based on its PE and PB ratios?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) is 21.87 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.13.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for AVB stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) is expected to decline by -9.75% in the next year.