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ALGOMA STEEL GROUP INC (ASTL) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NASDAQ:ASTL - Nasdaq - CA0156581070 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

7.57  -0.22 (-2.82%)

After market: 7.57 0 (0%)

Fundamental Rating

3

ASTL gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 151 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. ASTL may be in some trouble as it scores bad on both profitability and health. ASTL is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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2

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

ASTL had negative earnings in the past year.
ASTL had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: ASTL reported negative net income in multiple years.
ASTL had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
ASTL Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFASTL Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 500M 1B

1.2 Ratios

ASTL has a Return On Assets of -5.08%. This is in the lower half of the industry: ASTL underperforms 62.94% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Equity value of -11.13%, ASTL is not doing good in the industry: 65.73% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -5.08%
ROE -11.13%
ROIC N/A
ROA(3y)15.98%
ROA(5y)6.68%
ROE(3y)27.2%
ROE(5y)-4.17%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ASTL Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICASTL Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 20 -20 40 -40

1.3 Margins

ASTL's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
ASTL's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of ASTL (1.15%) is worse than 68.53% of its industry peers.
ASTL's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Profit Margin and Operating Margin are not available for ASTL so they could not be analyzed.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM N/A
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 1.15%
OM growth 3Y49.72%
OM growth 5Y-11.88%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y25.82%
GM growth 3Y18.7%
GM growth 5Y-4.41%
ASTL Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsASTL Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 10 20 30

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3

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

ASTL does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
Compared to 1 year ago, ASTL has more shares outstanding
ASTL has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
ASTL Yearly Shares OutstandingASTL Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 50M 100M
ASTL Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsASTL Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B

2.2 Solvency

ASTL has an Altman-Z score of 1.57. This is a bad value and indicates that ASTL is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
ASTL's Altman-Z score of 1.57 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. ASTL is outperformed by 66.43% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.42 indicates that ASTL is not too dependend on debt financing.
ASTL has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.42. This is in the lower half of the industry: ASTL underperforms 73.43% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.42
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 1.57
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC8.89%
ASTL Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFASTL Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 500M 1B 1.5B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 3.31 indicates that ASTL has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 3.31, ASTL is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 69.23% of the companies in the same industry.
ASTL has a Quick Ratio of 1.66. This is a normal value and indicates that ASTL is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 1.66, ASTL perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 55.94% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 3.31
Quick Ratio 1.66
ASTL Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesASTL Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B

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4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

ASTL shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -477.40%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 22.22% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
The Revenue for ASTL has decreased by -11.34% in the past year. This is quite bad
Measured over the past years, ASTL shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 0.71% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-477.4%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y22.22%
EPS Q2Q%-383.33%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-11.34%
Revenue growth 3Y15.92%
Revenue growth 5Y0.71%
Sales Q2Q%-18.06%

3.2 Future

Based on estimates for the next years, ASTL will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 56.12% on average per year.
ASTL is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 5.77% yearly.
EPS Next Y-678.44%
EPS Next 2Y-12.89%
EPS Next 3Y56.12%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-9.19%
Revenue Next 2Y1.43%
Revenue Next 3Y5.77%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
ASTL Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesASTL Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 1B 2B 3B 4B
ASTL Yearly EPS VS EstimatesASTL Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 0 2 -2 4 6 8 10

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1

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

ASTL reported negative earnings for the last year, which makes the Price/Earnings Ratio negative.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 34.54, which means the current valuation is very expensive for ASTL.
ASTL's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.68. ASTL is valued rather expensively when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE N/A
Fwd PE 34.54
ASTL Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsASTL Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 0 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as ASTL.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 214.6
ASTL Per share dataASTL EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 5 10 15

4.3 Compensation for Growth

A more expensive valuation may be justified as ASTL's earnings are expected to grow with 56.12% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-12.89%
EPS Next 3Y56.12%

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3

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

ASTL has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.45%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
In the last 3 months the price of ASTL has falen by -32.77%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.16, ASTL pays a better dividend. On top of this ASTL pays more dividend than 81.82% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.27, ASTL has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.45%

5.2 History

ASTL has been paying a dividend for less than 5 years, so it still needs to build a track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
ASTL Yearly Dividends per shareASTL Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2022 2023 2024 0.05 0.1 0.15

5.3 Sustainability

ASTL has negative earnings and hence a negative payout ratio. The dividend may be in danger.
DP-17.93%
EPS Next 2Y-12.89%
EPS Next 3Y56.12%
ASTL Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendASTL Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B

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ALGOMA STEEL GROUP INC

NASDAQ:ASTL (2/21/2025, 8:02:01 PM)

After market: 7.57 0 (0%)

7.57

-0.22 (-2.82%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)02-14 2025-02-14/amc
Earnings (Next)06-20 2025-06-20/amc
Inst Owners77.1%
Inst Owner Change-95.33%
Ins Owners4.77%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap790.46M
Analysts0
Price TargetN/A
Short Float %4.26%
Short Ratio7.06
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.45%
Yearly Dividend0.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP-17.93%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)64.57%
Min EPS beat(2)-142.42%
Max EPS beat(2)271.57%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)162.57%
Min EPS beat(4)-232.48%
Max EPS beat(4)753.6%
EPS beat(8)N/A
Avg EPS beat(8)N/A
EPS beat(12)N/A
Avg EPS beat(12)N/A
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)4.42%
Min Revenue beat(2)3.45%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.38%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)3.54%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.49%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.81%
Revenue beat(8)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(8)N/A
Revenue beat(12)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(12)N/A
Revenue beat(16)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(16)N/A
PT rev (1m)N/A
PT rev (3m)N/A
EPS NQ rev (1m)-88.37%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-88.37%
EPS NY rev (1m)-58.16%
EPS NY rev (3m)-294.07%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.31%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.31%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.39%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE N/A
Fwd PE 34.54
P/S 0.45
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 10.04
P/B 0.79
P/tB 0.79
EV/EBITDA 214.6
EPS(TTM)-0.91
EYN/A
EPS(NY)0.22
Fwd EY2.89%
FCF(TTM)-1.98
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)0.75
OCFY9.96%
SpS16.78
BVpS9.54
TBVpS9.53
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -5.08%
ROE -11.13%
ROCE N/A
ROIC N/A
ROICexc N/A
ROICexgc N/A
OM N/A
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 1.15%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)15.98%
ROA(5y)6.68%
ROE(3y)27.2%
ROE(5y)-4.17%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)28.88%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y49.72%
OM growth 5Y-11.88%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y25.82%
GM growth 3Y18.7%
GM growth 5Y-4.41%
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.8
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.42
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 99
Cap/Depr 297.72%
Cap/Sales 16.27%
Interest Coverage N/A
Cash Conversion 1863.33%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 3.31
Quick Ratio 1.66
Altman-Z 1.57
F-Score3
WACC8.89%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)322.39%
Cap/Depr(5y)227.68%
Cap/Sales(3y)11.3%
Cap/Sales(5y)8.74%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-477.4%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y22.22%
EPS Q2Q%-383.33%
EPS Next Y-678.44%
EPS Next 2Y-12.89%
EPS Next 3Y56.12%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-11.34%
Revenue growth 3Y15.92%
Revenue growth 5Y0.71%
Sales Q2Q%-18.06%
Revenue Next Year-9.19%
Revenue Next 2Y1.43%
Revenue Next 3Y5.77%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-182.69%
EBIT growth 3Y73.56%
EBIT growth 5Y-11.25%
EBIT Next Year-125.31%
EBIT Next 3Y44.84%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-143.17%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-88.51%
OCF growth 3Y231.43%
OCF growth 5Y1.35%