ASTRANA HEALTH INC (ASTH) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NASDAQ:ASTH • US03763A2078

Current stock price

32.26 USD
+0.81 (+2.58%)
Last:

This ASTH fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

3

1. ASTH Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year ASTH was profitable.
  • ASTH had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • In the past 5 years ASTH has always been profitable.
  • Each year in the past 5 years ASTH had a positive operating cash flow.
ASTH Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFASTH Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20M 40M 60M 80M 100M

1.2 Ratios

  • Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 1.01%, ASTH is in line with its industry, outperforming 51.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ASTH has a Return On Equity (2.89%) which is in line with its industry peers.
  • ASTH has a Return On Invested Capital (3.75%) which is in line with its industry peers.
  • Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for ASTH is below the industry average of 8.51%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.01%
ROE 2.89%
ROIC 3.75%
ROA(3y)3.57%
ROA(5y)4.69%
ROE(3y)6.27%
ROE(5y)8.46%
ROIC(3y)5.51%
ROIC(5y)6.5%
ASTH Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICASTH Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5 10 15

1.3 Margins

  • Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 0.71%, ASTH is in line with its industry, outperforming 52.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ASTH's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
  • ASTH has a Operating Margin (3.08%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ASTH has declined.
  • The Gross Margin of ASTH (10.73%) is worse than 73.00% of its industry peers.
  • ASTH's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 3.08%
PM (TTM) 0.71%
GM 10.73%
OM growth 3Y-30.31%
OM growth 5Y-23.43%
PM growth 3Y-43.64%
PM growth 5Y-33.68%
GM growth 3Y-14.93%
GM growth 5Y-13%
ASTH Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsASTH Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5 10 15 20

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3

2. ASTH Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), ASTH is destroying value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, ASTH has more shares outstanding
  • Compared to 5 years ago, ASTH has more shares outstanding
  • Compared to 1 year ago, ASTH has a worse debt to assets ratio.
ASTH Yearly Shares OutstandingASTH Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10M 20M 30M 40M
ASTH Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsASTH Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500M 1B 1.5B 2B

2.2 Solvency

  • ASTH has an Altman-Z score of 2.56. This is not the best score and indicates that ASTH is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 2.56, ASTH is in line with its industry, outperforming 58.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ASTH has a debt to FCF ratio of 9.94. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as ASTH would need 9.94 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 9.94, ASTH perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 41.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.27 is on the high side and indicates that ASTH has dependencies on debt financing.
  • Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.27, ASTH is doing worse than 66.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.27
Debt/FCF 9.94
Altman-Z 2.56
ROIC/WACC0.46
WACC8.13%
ASTH Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFASTH Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M 800M

2.3 Liquidity

  • ASTH has a Current Ratio of 1.40. This is a normal value and indicates that ASTH is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.40, ASTH is in line with its industry, outperforming 52.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Quick Ratio of 1.40 indicates that ASTH should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
  • The Quick ratio of ASTH (1.40) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.4
Quick Ratio 1.4
ASTH Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesASTH Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M 800M

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6

3. ASTH Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • ASTH shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -48.31%.
  • The earnings per share for ASTH have been decreasing by -14.74% on average. This is quite bad
  • The Revenue has grown by 56.39% in the past year. This is a very strong growth!
  • The Revenue has been growing by 35.87% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth!
EPS 1Y (TTM)-48.31%
EPS 3Y-24.29%
EPS 5Y-14.74%
EPS Q2Q%180%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)56.39%
Revenue growth 3Y40.62%
Revenue growth 5Y35.87%
Sales Q2Q%42.89%

3.2 Future

  • Based on estimates for the next years, ASTH will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 54.34% on average per year.
  • The Revenue is expected to grow by 9.59% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y173.72%
EPS Next 2Y104.54%
EPS Next 3Y69.85%
EPS Next 5Y54.34%
Revenue Next Year25.71%
Revenue Next 2Y18.01%
Revenue Next 3Y13.68%
Revenue Next 5Y9.59%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
ASTH Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesASTH Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B
ASTH Yearly EPS VS EstimatesASTH Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 0 1 2 3 4

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4

4. ASTH Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • ASTH is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 70.13.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of ASTH is on the same level as its industry peers.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.95, ASTH is valued quite expensively.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 25.62, the valuation of ASTH can be described as expensive.
  • ASTH's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 38.68. ASTH is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 70.13
Fwd PE 25.62
ASTH Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsASTH Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60

4.2 Price Multiples

  • ASTH's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
  • ASTH's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. ASTH is cheaper than 74.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 15.27
EV/EBITDA 15.05
ASTH Per share dataASTH EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 20 40 60

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • ASTH's earnings are expected to grow with 69.85% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.4
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y104.54%
EPS Next 3Y69.85%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

0

5. ASTH Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • No dividends for ASTH!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%

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ASTH Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

ASTRANA HEALTH INC

NASDAQ:ASTH (4/21/2026, 1:13:29 PM)

32.26

+0.81 (+2.58%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorHealth Care
GICS IndustryGroupHealth Care Equipment & Services
GICS IndustryHealth Care Providers & Services
Earnings (Last)03-02
Earnings (Next)05-13
Inst Owners60.09%
Inst Owner ChangeN/A
Ins Owners9.93%
Ins Owner Change4.31%
Market Cap1.60B
Revenue(TTM)3.18B
Net Income(TTM)22.49M
Analysts84.71
Price Target36.72 (13.83%)
Short Float %7.47%
Short Ratio5.58
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%
Yearly Dividend0.16
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP35.06%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-43.4%
Min EPS beat(2)-97.78%
Max EPS beat(2)10.99%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-44.97%
Min EPS beat(4)-97.78%
Max EPS beat(4)10.99%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-50.25%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)-23.47%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)-9.93%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.74%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.62%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.15%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.11%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.56%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.57%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.83%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.78%
Revenue beat(16)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(16)N/A
PT rev (1m)0.93%
PT rev (3m)-2.41%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-1.22%
EPS NQ rev (3m)28.32%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.23%
EPS NY rev (3m)-1.24%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.29%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.48%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.05%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.1%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 70.13
Fwd PE 25.62
P/S 0.5
P/FCF 15.27
P/OCF 13.93
P/B 2.05
P/tB N/A
EV/EBITDA 15.05
EPS(TTM)0.46
EY1.43%
EPS(NY)1.26
Fwd EY3.9%
FCF(TTM)2.11
FCFY6.55%
OCF(TTM)2.32
OCFY7.18%
SpS64.32
BVpS15.75
TBVpS-7.22
PEG (NY)0.4
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number12.7688 (-60.42%)
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.01%
ROE 2.89%
ROCE 6.12%
ROIC 3.75%
ROICexc 5.12%
ROICexgc 160.26%
OM 3.08%
PM (TTM) 0.71%
GM 10.73%
FCFM 3.28%
ROA(3y)3.57%
ROA(5y)4.69%
ROE(3y)6.27%
ROE(5y)8.46%
ROIC(3y)5.51%
ROIC(5y)6.5%
ROICexc(3y)8.45%
ROICexc(5y)10.18%
ROICexgc(3y)90.21%
ROICexgc(5y)71.8%
ROCE(3y)9%
ROCE(5y)10.61%
ROICexgc growth 3Y64.68%
ROICexgc growth 5Y30.22%
ROICexc growth 3Y-25.1%
ROICexc growth 5Y-14.45%
OM growth 3Y-30.31%
OM growth 5Y-23.43%
PM growth 3Y-43.64%
PM growth 5Y-33.68%
GM growth 3Y-14.93%
GM growth 5Y-13%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover1.43
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.27
Debt/FCF 9.94
Debt/EBITDA 6.89
Cap/Depr 22.09%
Cap/Sales 0.32%
Interest Coverage 2.14
Cash Conversion 79.65%
Profit Quality 464.67%
Current Ratio 1.4
Quick Ratio 1.4
Altman-Z 2.56
F-Score4
WACC8.13%
ROIC/WACC0.46
Cap/Depr(3y)70.53%
Cap/Depr(5y)90.42%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.92%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.45%
Profit Quality(3y)210.81%
Profit Quality(5y)167.52%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-48.31%
EPS 3Y-24.29%
EPS 5Y-14.74%
EPS Q2Q%180%
EPS Next Y173.72%
EPS Next 2Y104.54%
EPS Next 3Y69.85%
EPS Next 5Y54.34%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)56.39%
Revenue growth 3Y40.62%
Revenue growth 5Y35.87%
Sales Q2Q%42.89%
Revenue Next Year25.71%
Revenue Next 2Y18.01%
Revenue Next 3Y13.68%
Revenue Next 5Y9.59%
EBIT growth 1Y9.82%
EBIT growth 3Y-2%
EBIT growth 5Y4.04%
EBIT Next Year220.56%
EBIT Next 3Y59.52%
EBIT Next 5Y39.29%
FCF growth 1Y136.58%
FCF growth 3Y20.86%
FCF growth 5Y18.35%
OCF growth 1Y119.54%
OCF growth 3Y11.74%
OCF growth 5Y19.94%

ASTRANA HEALTH INC / ASTH Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ASTRANA HEALTH INC?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to ASTH.


What is the valuation status of ASTRANA HEALTH INC (ASTH) stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to ASTRANA HEALTH INC (ASTH). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


Can you provide the profitability details for ASTRANA HEALTH INC?

ASTRANA HEALTH INC (ASTH) has a profitability rating of 3 / 10.


Can you provide the expected EPS growth for ASTH stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ASTRANA HEALTH INC (ASTH) is expected to grow by 173.72% in the next year.


Can you provide the dividend sustainability for ASTH stock?

The dividend rating of ASTRANA HEALTH INC (ASTH) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 35.06%.