APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:ARI - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US03762U1051 - REIT - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, ARI scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. ARI was compared to 65 industry peers in the Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)" industry. While ARI is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. ARI has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year ARI was profitable.
In the past year ARI had a positive cash flow from operations.
ARI had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years ARI had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
ARI has a worse Return On Assets (-1.61%) than 76.92% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of ARI (-7.21%) is worse than 70.77% of its industry peers.
ARI's Return On Invested Capital of 1.56% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ARI outperforms 80.00% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for ARI is in line with the industry average of 1.71%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -1.61% | ||
| ROE | -7.21% | ||
| ROIC | 1.56% |
ROA(3y)0.48%
ROA(5y)0.78%
ROE(3y)1.75%
ROE(5y)2.86%
ROIC(3y)1.68%
ROIC(5y)2.3%
1.3 Margins
With a decent Operating Margin value of 17.90%, ARI is doing good in the industry, outperforming 64.62% of the companies in the same industry.
ARI's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
ARI has a Gross Margin of 37.60%. This is amongst the best in the industry. ARI outperforms 81.54% of its industry peers.
ARI's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 17.9% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.6% |
OM growth 3Y-25.68%
OM growth 5Y-20.21%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-16.09%
GM growth 5Y-11.34%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
ARI has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for ARI has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for ARI has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, ARI has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
ARI has an Altman-Z score of 0.03. This is a bad value and indicates that ARI is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of ARI (0.03) is better than 61.54% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of ARI is 203.98, which is on the high side as it means it would take ARI, 203.98 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
ARI has a worse Debt to FCF ratio (203.98) than 61.54% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.87 is on the high side and indicates that ARI has dependencies on debt financing.
ARI has a Debt to Equity ratio of 2.87. This is in the better half of the industry: ARI outperforms 70.77% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.87 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 203.98 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.03 |
ROIC/WACC0.22
WACC7.22%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.34 indicates that ARI may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of ARI (0.34) is better than 67.69% of its industry peers.
ARI has a Quick Ratio of 0.34. This is a bad value and indicates that ARI is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ARI has a Quick ratio of 0.34. This is in the better half of the industry: ARI outperforms 67.69% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.34 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.34 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 25.77% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been decreasing by -6.89% on average over the past years.
ARI shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -0.38%.
Measured over the past years, ARI shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 10.63% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)25.77%
EPS 3Y0%
EPS 5Y-6.89%
EPS Q2Q%-31.43%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.38%
Revenue growth 3Y21.79%
Revenue growth 5Y10.63%
Sales Q2Q%-30.33%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 8.29% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
ARI is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 5.57% yearly.
EPS Next Y-36.84%
EPS Next 2Y-14.06%
EPS Next 3Y8.29%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-2.95%
Revenue Next 2Y5.57%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 7.51, the valuation of ARI can be described as very cheap.
ARI's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. ARI is cheaper than 81.54% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 28.92, ARI is valued rather cheaply.
ARI is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.33.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as ARI.
ARI is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.65, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.51 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.33 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ARI is valued cheaply inside the industry as 87.69% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as ARI.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 40.63 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 46.95 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-14.06%
EPS Next 3Y8.29%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 11.00%, ARI is a good candidate for dividend investing.
With a Dividend Yield of 11.00, ARI pays less dividend than the industry average, which is at 14.86. 87.69% of the companies listed in the same industry pay a better dividend than ARI!
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.51, ARI pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 11% |
5.2 History
The dividend of ARI decreases each year by -6.89%.
ARI has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
The dividend of ARI decreased in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-6.89%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
5.3 Sustainability
ARI has negative earnings and hence a negative payout ratio. The dividend may be in danger.
DP-146.66%
EPS Next 2Y-14.06%
EPS Next 3Y8.29%
NYSE:ARI (4/25/2025, 1:08:07 PM)
9.165
+0.07 (+0.83%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryMortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)"
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners66.38%
Inst Owner Change0.01%
Ins Owners0.68%
Ins Owner Change-3.65%
Market Cap1.27B
Analysts50
Price Target10.07 (9.87%)
Short Float %2.29%
Short Ratio2.53
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 11% |
Yearly Dividend1.42
Dividend Growth(5Y)-6.89%
DP-146.66%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)29.68%
Min EPS beat(2)19.58%
Max EPS beat(2)39.78%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)21.74%
Min EPS beat(4)13.62%
Max EPS beat(4)39.78%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)-2.1%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)-0.87%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)-1.8%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-7.6%
Min Revenue beat(2)-8.49%
Max Revenue beat(2)-6.72%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-7.96%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.63%
Max Revenue beat(4)-3.99%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-8.45%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)28.37%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)37.56%
PT rev (1m)1.72%
PT rev (3m)9.26%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.76%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-6.47%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.28%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.99%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-2.58%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-4.12%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-1.65%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.74%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.51 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.33 | ||
| P/S | 1.58 | ||
| P/FCF | 40.63 | ||
| P/OCF | 6.34 | ||
| P/B | 0.68 | ||
| P/tB | 0.68 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 46.95 |
EPS(TTM)1.22
EY13.31%
EPS(NY)0.98
Fwd EY10.72%
FCF(TTM)0.23
FCFY2.46%
OCF(TTM)1.45
OCFY15.78%
SpS5.82
BVpS13.5
TBVpS13.5
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -1.61% | ||
| ROE | -7.21% | ||
| ROCE | 1.97% | ||
| ROIC | 1.56% | ||
| ROICexc | 1.63% | ||
| ROICexgc | 1.65% | ||
| OM | 17.9% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.6% | ||
| FCFM | 3.88% |
ROA(3y)0.48%
ROA(5y)0.78%
ROE(3y)1.75%
ROE(5y)2.86%
ROIC(3y)1.68%
ROIC(5y)2.3%
ROICexc(3y)1.74%
ROICexc(5y)2.43%
ROICexgc(3y)1.75%
ROICexgc(5y)2.45%
ROCE(3y)2.13%
ROCE(5y)2.91%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-15.06%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-22.32%
ROICexc growth 3Y-15.31%
ROICexc growth 5Y-22.29%
OM growth 3Y-25.68%
OM growth 5Y-20.21%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-16.09%
GM growth 5Y-11.34%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.1
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.87 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 203.98 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 34.48 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 1452.74% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 20.99% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 0.29 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 128.56% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.34 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.34 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.03 |
F-Score6
WACC7.22%
ROIC/WACC0.22
Cap/Depr(3y)2341.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)11.9%
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)25.77%
EPS 3Y0%
EPS 5Y-6.89%
EPS Q2Q%-31.43%
EPS Next Y-36.84%
EPS Next 2Y-14.06%
EPS Next 3Y8.29%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.38%
Revenue growth 3Y21.79%
Revenue growth 5Y10.63%
Sales Q2Q%-30.33%
Revenue Next Year-2.95%
Revenue Next 2Y5.57%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-24.5%
EBIT growth 3Y-9.49%
EBIT growth 5Y-11.73%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-84.82%
FCF growth 3Y-46.03%
FCF growth 5Y-35.16%
OCF growth 1Y-28.01%
OCF growth 3Y0.24%
OCF growth 5Y-5.98%