APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:ARI • US03762U1051

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This ARI fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

5

1. ARI Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year ARI was profitable.
  • ARI had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • Of the past 5 years ARI 4 years were profitable.
  • In the past 5 years ARI always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
ARI Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFARI Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100M -100M 200M

1.2 Ratios

  • ARI has a better Return On Assets (1.13%) than 72.06% of its industry peers.
  • ARI has a Return On Equity of 6.03%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ARI outperforms 58.82% of its industry peers.
  • The Return On Invested Capital of ARI (0.99%) is better than 66.18% of its industry peers.
  • Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for ARI is in line with the industry average of 1.29%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.13%
ROE 6.03%
ROIC 0.99%
ROA(3y)-0.01%
ROA(5y)1.01%
ROE(3y)0.23%
ROE(5y)4.05%
ROIC(3y)1.47%
ROIC(5y)1.71%
ARI Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICARI Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5 -5 10

1.3 Margins

  • ARI's Profit Margin of 15.30% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ARI outperforms 60.29% of its industry peers.
  • ARI's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • The Operating Margin of ARI (15.53%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ARI has declined.
  • Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 37.12%, ARI is in line with its industry, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ARI has declined.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 15.53%
PM (TTM) 15.3%
GM 37.12%
OM growth 3Y-21.24%
OM growth 5Y-20.73%
PM growth 3Y-29.33%
PM growth 5Y115.72%
GM growth 3Y-11.13%
GM growth 5Y-10.65%
ARI Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsARI Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 40 60

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2

2. ARI Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • ARI has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for ARI has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
  • The number of shares outstanding for ARI has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, ARI has a worse debt to assets ratio.
ARI Yearly Shares OutstandingARI Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 50M 100M 150M
ARI Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsARI Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B 8B

2.2 Solvency

  • ARI has an Altman-Z score of 0.04. This is a bad value and indicates that ARI is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • With a decent Altman-Z score value of 0.04, ARI is doing good in the industry, outperforming 70.59% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of ARI is 187.14, which is on the high side as it means it would take ARI, 187.14 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • ARI has a worse Debt to FCF ratio (187.14) than 70.59% of its industry peers.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 3.89 is on the high side and indicates that ARI has dependencies on debt financing.
  • With a decent Debt to Equity ratio value of 3.89, ARI is doing good in the industry, outperforming 66.18% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.89
Debt/FCF 187.14
Altman-Z 0.04
ROIC/WACC0.16
WACC6.27%
ARI Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFARI Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 0.26 indicates that ARI may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • ARI has a better Current ratio (0.26) than 72.06% of its industry peers.
  • ARI has a Quick Ratio of 0.26. This is a bad value and indicates that ARI is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • ARI's Quick ratio of 0.26 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ARI outperforms 72.06% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.26
Quick Ratio 0.26
ARI Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesARI Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500M 1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B

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4

3. ARI Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The earnings per share for ARI have decreased strongly by -20.30% in the last year.
  • Measured over the past years, ARI shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 28.72% on average per year.
  • ARI shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -9.40%.
  • The Revenue has been growing by 11.34% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-20.3%
EPS 3Y-8.42%
EPS 5Y28.72%
EPS Q2Q%-18.75%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-9.4%
Revenue growth 3Y8.42%
Revenue growth 5Y11.34%
Sales Q2Q%1.38%

3.2 Future

  • ARI is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 3.07% yearly.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, ARI will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 0.28% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-106.03%
EPS Next 2Y3.07%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year17.83%
Revenue Next 2Y0.28%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
ARI Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesARI Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 200M 400M 600M 800M
ARI Yearly EPS VS EstimatesARI Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 0 0.5 1 1.5

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3

4. ARI Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • ARI is valuated reasonably with a Price/Earnings ratio of 10.42.
  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, ARI is valued a bit cheaper than 66.18% of the companies in the same industry.
  • When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of ARI to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.47), we can say ARI is valued rather cheaply.
  • The Forward Price/Earnings Ratio is negative for ARI. No positive earnings are expected for the next year.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 10.42
Fwd PE N/A
ARI Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsARI Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 0 50 -50 -100 -150

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ARI is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 70.59% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of ARI is on the same level as its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 36.21
EV/EBITDA 74.6
ARI Per share dataARI EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 2 4 6 8 10

4.3 Compensation for Growth

PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.36
EPS Next 2Y3.07%
EPS Next 3YN/A

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4

5. ARI Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 9.03%, ARI is a good candidate for dividend investing.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 12.67, ARI's dividend is way lower than its industry peers. On top of this 91.18% of the companies listed in the same industry pay a better dividend than ARI!
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.81, ARI pays a better dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 9.03%

5.2 History

  • The dividend of ARI decreases each year by -8.38%.
  • ARI has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-8.38%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
ARI Yearly Dividends per shareARI Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.5 1 1.5

5.3 Sustainability

  • ARI pays out 137.20% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
DP137.2%
EPS Next 2Y3.07%
EPS Next 3YN/A
ARI Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendARI Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100M -100M 200M
ARI Dividend Payout.ARI Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.ARI Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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ARI Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT

NYSE:ARI (4/23/2026, 6:40:00 PM)

After market: 11.04 0 (0%)

11.04

0 (0%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryMortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)"
Earnings (Last)02-10
Earnings (Next)04-28
Inst Owners70.32%
Inst Owner Change-0.19%
Ins Owners0.65%
Ins Owner Change7.27%
Market Cap1.53B
Revenue(TTM)731.68M
Net Income(TTM)111.91M
Analysts82.22
Price Target11.73 (6.25%)
Short Float %4.37%
Short Ratio4.15
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 9.03%
Yearly Dividend1.11
Dividend Growth(5Y)-8.38%
DP137.2%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date03-31
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)22.59%
Min EPS beat(2)6.37%
Max EPS beat(2)38.8%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)15.48%
Min EPS beat(4)4.64%
Max EPS beat(4)38.8%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)18.61%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)3.76%
EPS beat(16)14
Avg EPS beat(16)3.22%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-12.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)-16.96%
Max Revenue beat(2)-8.12%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-13.75%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.78%
Max Revenue beat(4)-8.12%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-10.85%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-10.22%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)17.84%
PT rev (1m)3.6%
PT rev (3m)6.56%
EPS NQ rev (1m)29.76%
EPS NQ rev (3m)25%
EPS NY rev (1m)-108.26%
EPS NY rev (3m)-106.75%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.12%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.55%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 10.42
Fwd PE N/A
P/S 2.09
P/FCF 36.21
P/OCF 10.75
P/B 0.83
P/tB 0.83
EV/EBITDA 74.6
EPS(TTM)1.06
EY9.6%
EPS(NY)-0.06
Fwd EYN/A
FCF(TTM)0.3
FCFY2.76%
OCF(TTM)1.03
OCFY9.3%
SpS5.27
BVpS13.38
TBVpS13.38
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.36
Graham Number17.8612 (61.79%)
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.13%
ROE 6.03%
ROCE 1.25%
ROIC 0.99%
ROICexc 1%
ROICexgc 1.01%
OM 15.53%
PM (TTM) 15.3%
GM 37.12%
FCFM 5.78%
ROA(3y)-0.01%
ROA(5y)1.01%
ROE(3y)0.23%
ROE(5y)4.05%
ROIC(3y)1.47%
ROIC(5y)1.71%
ROICexc(3y)1.51%
ROICexc(5y)1.78%
ROICexgc(3y)1.53%
ROICexgc(5y)1.79%
ROCE(3y)1.86%
ROCE(5y)2.17%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-15.88%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-25.18%
ROICexc growth 3Y-15.6%
ROICexc growth 5Y-25.13%
OM growth 3Y-21.24%
OM growth 5Y-20.73%
PM growth 3Y-29.33%
PM growth 5Y115.72%
GM growth 3Y-11.13%
GM growth 5Y-10.65%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.07
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.89
Debt/FCF 187.14
Debt/EBITDA 57.83
Cap/Depr 896.89%
Cap/Sales 13.7%
Interest Coverage 0.25
Cash Conversion 114.2%
Profit Quality 37.81%
Current Ratio 0.26
Quick Ratio 0.26
Altman-Z 0.04
F-Score4
WACC6.27%
ROIC/WACC0.16
Cap/Depr(3y)1076.74%
Cap/Depr(5y)1585.55%
Cap/Sales(3y)14.55%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.89%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-20.3%
EPS 3Y-8.42%
EPS 5Y28.72%
EPS Q2Q%-18.75%
EPS Next Y-106.03%
EPS Next 2Y3.07%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-9.4%
Revenue growth 3Y8.42%
Revenue growth 5Y11.34%
Sales Q2Q%1.38%
Revenue Next Year17.83%
Revenue Next 2Y0.28%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-21.39%
EBIT growth 3Y-14.61%
EBIT growth 5Y-11.73%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y35.06%
FCF growth 3Y-43.04%
FCF growth 5Y-23.74%
OCF growth 1Y-29.04%
OCF growth 3Y-18.37%
OCF growth 5Y-2.78%

APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT / ARI Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the fundamental rating for ARI stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to ARI.


What is the valuation status for ARI stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI). This can be considered as Overvalued.


Can you provide the profitability details for APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT?

APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.


What is the financial health of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) stock?

The financial health rating of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) is 2 / 10.


Can you provide the dividend sustainability for ARI stock?

The dividend rating of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) is 4 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 137.2%.