APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:ARI • US03762U1051

Current stock price

10.325 USD
+0.05 (+0.54%)
Last:

This ARI fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

5

1. ARI Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • ARI had positive earnings in the past year.
  • In the past year ARI had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • Of the past 5 years ARI 4 years were profitable.
  • ARI had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
ARI Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFARI Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100M -100M 200M

1.2 Ratios

  • ARI has a better Return On Assets (1.13%) than 73.53% of its industry peers.
  • The Return On Equity of ARI (6.03%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • ARI's Return On Invested Capital of 0.99% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ARI outperforms 64.71% of its industry peers.
  • ARI had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 1.47%. This is in line with the industry average of 1.41%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.13%
ROE 6.03%
ROIC 0.99%
ROA(3y)-0.01%
ROA(5y)1.01%
ROE(3y)0.23%
ROE(5y)4.05%
ROIC(3y)1.47%
ROIC(5y)1.71%
ARI Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICARI Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5 -5 10

1.3 Margins

  • With a decent Profit Margin value of 15.30%, ARI is doing good in the industry, outperforming 60.29% of the companies in the same industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ARI has grown nicely.
  • With a Operating Margin value of 15.53%, ARI perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ARI's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
  • Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 37.12%, ARI is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.35% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ARI's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 15.53%
PM (TTM) 15.3%
GM 37.12%
OM growth 3Y-21.24%
OM growth 5Y-20.73%
PM growth 3Y-29.33%
PM growth 5Y115.72%
GM growth 3Y-11.13%
GM growth 5Y-10.65%
ARI Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsARI Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 40 60

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2

2. ARI Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • ARI has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for ARI has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
  • The number of shares outstanding for ARI has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, ARI has a worse debt to assets ratio.
ARI Yearly Shares OutstandingARI Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 50M 100M 150M
ARI Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsARI Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B 8B

2.2 Solvency

  • Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.03, we must say that ARI is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • The Altman-Z score of ARI (0.03) is better than 69.12% of its industry peers.
  • ARI has a debt to FCF ratio of 187.14. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as ARI would need 187.14 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • ARI has a worse Debt to FCF ratio (187.14) than 70.59% of its industry peers.
  • ARI has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.89. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 3.89, ARI is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 64.71% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.89
Debt/FCF 187.14
Altman-Z 0.03
ROIC/WACC0.16
WACC6.24%
ARI Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFARI Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 0.26 indicates that ARI may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • ARI has a better Current ratio (0.26) than 63.24% of its industry peers.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.26 indicates that ARI may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • ARI's Quick ratio of 0.26 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ARI outperforms 63.24% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.26
Quick Ratio 0.26
ARI Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesARI Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500M 1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B

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4

3. ARI Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • ARI shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -20.30%.
  • ARI shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 28.72% yearly.
  • The Revenue has decreased by -9.40% in the past year.
  • Measured over the past years, ARI shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 11.34% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-20.3%
EPS 3Y-8.42%
EPS 5Y28.72%
EPS Q2Q%-18.75%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-9.4%
Revenue growth 3Y8.42%
Revenue growth 5Y11.34%
Sales Q2Q%1.38%

3.2 Future

  • Based on estimates for the next years, ARI will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 3.07% on average per year.
  • ARI is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 0.28% yearly.
EPS Next Y-26.95%
EPS Next 2Y3.07%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year17.83%
Revenue Next 2Y0.28%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
ARI Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesARI Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 200M 400M 600M 800M
ARI Yearly EPS VS EstimatesARI Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 0.5 1 1.5

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4

4. ARI Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 9.74, the valuation of ARI can be described as reasonable.
  • ARI's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. ARI is cheaper than 67.65% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 25.71, ARI is valued rather cheaply.
  • A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.33 indicates a correct valuation of ARI.
  • ARI's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
  • When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ARI to the average of the S&P500 Index (23.83), we can say ARI is valued slightly cheaper.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 9.74
Fwd PE 13.33
ARI Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsARI Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60 80

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ARI is valued a bit cheaper than 70.59% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ARI's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 34.07
EV/EBITDA 73.81
ARI Per share dataARI EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 2 4 6 8 10

4.3 Compensation for Growth

PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.34
EPS Next 2Y3.07%
EPS Next 3YN/A

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

4

5. ARI Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • ARI has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 9.67%, which is a nice return.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 11.50, ARI is paying slightly less dividend.
  • ARI's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 1.91.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 9.67%

5.2 History

  • The dividend of ARI decreases each year by -8.38%.
  • ARI has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-8.38%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
ARI Yearly Dividends per shareARI Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.5 1 1.5

5.3 Sustainability

  • ARI pays out 137.20% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
DP137.2%
EPS Next 2Y3.07%
EPS Next 3YN/A
ARI Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendARI Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100M -100M 200M
ARI Dividend Payout.ARI Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.ARI Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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ARI Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT

NYSE:ARI (3/16/2026, 1:48:56 PM)

10.325

+0.05 (+0.54%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryMortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)"
Earnings (Last)02-10
Earnings (Next)04-22
Inst Owners69.64%
Inst Owner Change1.38%
Ins Owners0.61%
Ins Owner Change2.02%
Market Cap1.44B
Revenue(TTM)731.68M
Net Income(TTM)111.91M
Analysts82.22
Price Target11.32 (9.64%)
Short Float %2.9%
Short Ratio3.02
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 9.67%
Yearly Dividend1.11
Dividend Growth(5Y)-8.38%
DP137.2%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date03-31
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)22.59%
Min EPS beat(2)6.37%
Max EPS beat(2)38.8%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)15.48%
Min EPS beat(4)4.64%
Max EPS beat(4)38.8%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)18.61%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)3.76%
EPS beat(16)14
Avg EPS beat(16)3.22%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-12.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)-16.96%
Max Revenue beat(2)-8.12%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-13.75%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.78%
Max Revenue beat(4)-8.12%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-10.85%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-10.22%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)17.84%
PT rev (1m)1.37%
PT rev (3m)5.21%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-3.67%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.2%
EPS NY rev (1m)-20.96%
EPS NY rev (3m)-18.22%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-3.12%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.15%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.31%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.79%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 9.74
Fwd PE 13.33
P/S 1.97
P/FCF 34.07
P/OCF 10.11
P/B 0.78
P/tB 0.78
EV/EBITDA 73.81
EPS(TTM)1.06
EY10.27%
EPS(NY)0.77
Fwd EY7.5%
FCF(TTM)0.3
FCFY2.94%
OCF(TTM)1.02
OCFY9.89%
SpS5.24
BVpS13.3
TBVpS13.3
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.34
Graham Number17.81
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.13%
ROE 6.03%
ROCE 1.25%
ROIC 0.99%
ROICexc 1%
ROICexgc 1.01%
OM 15.53%
PM (TTM) 15.3%
GM 37.12%
FCFM 5.78%
ROA(3y)-0.01%
ROA(5y)1.01%
ROE(3y)0.23%
ROE(5y)4.05%
ROIC(3y)1.47%
ROIC(5y)1.71%
ROICexc(3y)1.51%
ROICexc(5y)1.78%
ROICexgc(3y)1.53%
ROICexgc(5y)1.79%
ROCE(3y)1.86%
ROCE(5y)2.17%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-15.88%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-25.18%
ROICexc growth 3Y-15.6%
ROICexc growth 5Y-25.13%
OM growth 3Y-21.24%
OM growth 5Y-20.73%
PM growth 3Y-29.33%
PM growth 5Y115.72%
GM growth 3Y-11.13%
GM growth 5Y-10.65%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.07
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.89
Debt/FCF 187.14
Debt/EBITDA 57.83
Cap/Depr 896.89%
Cap/Sales 13.7%
Interest Coverage 0.25
Cash Conversion 114.2%
Profit Quality 37.81%
Current Ratio 0.26
Quick Ratio 0.26
Altman-Z 0.03
F-Score4
WACC6.24%
ROIC/WACC0.16
Cap/Depr(3y)1076.74%
Cap/Depr(5y)1585.55%
Cap/Sales(3y)14.55%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.89%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-20.3%
EPS 3Y-8.42%
EPS 5Y28.72%
EPS Q2Q%-18.75%
EPS Next Y-26.95%
EPS Next 2Y3.07%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-9.4%
Revenue growth 3Y8.42%
Revenue growth 5Y11.34%
Sales Q2Q%1.38%
Revenue Next Year17.83%
Revenue Next 2Y0.28%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-21.39%
EBIT growth 3Y-14.61%
EBIT growth 5Y-11.73%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y35.06%
FCF growth 3Y-43.04%
FCF growth 5Y-23.74%
OCF growth 1Y-29.04%
OCF growth 3Y-18.37%
OCF growth 5Y-2.78%

APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT / ARI Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the fundamental rating for ARI stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to ARI.


What is the valuation status for ARI stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) stock?

APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.


What are the PE and PB ratios of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) stock?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) is 9.74 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 0.78.


Is the dividend of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT sustainable?

The dividend rating of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) is 4 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 137.2%.