APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:ARI • US03762U1051

Current stock price

11.065 USD
-0.02 (-0.14%)
Last:

This ARI fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

5

1. ARI Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • ARI had positive earnings in the past year.
  • In the past year ARI had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • Of the past 5 years ARI 4 years were profitable.
  • ARI had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
ARI Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFARI Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100M -100M 200M

1.2 Ratios

  • ARI's Return On Assets of 1.13% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ARI outperforms 72.06% of its industry peers.
  • With a Return On Equity value of 6.03%, ARI perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 58.82% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ARI has a Return On Invested Capital of 0.99%. This is in the better half of the industry: ARI outperforms 66.18% of its industry peers.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for ARI is in line with the industry average of 1.29%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.13%
ROE 6.03%
ROIC 0.99%
ROA(3y)-0.01%
ROA(5y)1.01%
ROE(3y)0.23%
ROE(5y)4.05%
ROIC(3y)1.47%
ROIC(5y)1.71%
ARI Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICARI Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5 -5 10

1.3 Margins

  • ARI has a better Profit Margin (15.30%) than 60.29% of its industry peers.
  • ARI's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • ARI has a Operating Margin (15.53%) which is in line with its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ARI has declined.
  • With a Gross Margin value of 37.12%, ARI perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ARI's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 15.53%
PM (TTM) 15.3%
GM 37.12%
OM growth 3Y-21.24%
OM growth 5Y-20.73%
PM growth 3Y-29.33%
PM growth 5Y115.72%
GM growth 3Y-11.13%
GM growth 5Y-10.65%
ARI Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsARI Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 40 60

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2

2. ARI Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so ARI is destroying value.
  • ARI has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
  • ARI has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
  • ARI has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
ARI Yearly Shares OutstandingARI Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 50M 100M 150M
ARI Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsARI Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B 8B

2.2 Solvency

  • ARI has an Altman-Z score of 0.04. This is a bad value and indicates that ARI is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • With a decent Altman-Z score value of 0.04, ARI is doing good in the industry, outperforming 70.59% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ARI has a debt to FCF ratio of 187.14. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as ARI would need 187.14 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • ARI has a worse Debt to FCF ratio (187.14) than 70.59% of its industry peers.
  • ARI has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.89. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • With a decent Debt to Equity ratio value of 3.89, ARI is doing good in the industry, outperforming 66.18% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.89
Debt/FCF 187.14
Altman-Z 0.04
ROIC/WACC0.16
WACC6.27%
ARI Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFARI Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B

2.3 Liquidity

  • ARI has a Current Ratio of 0.26. This is a bad value and indicates that ARI is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • ARI has a Current ratio of 0.26. This is in the better half of the industry: ARI outperforms 72.06% of its industry peers.
  • ARI has a Quick Ratio of 0.26. This is a bad value and indicates that ARI is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • ARI has a better Quick ratio (0.26) than 72.06% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.26
Quick Ratio 0.26
ARI Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesARI Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500M 1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B

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4

3. ARI Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • ARI shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -20.30%.
  • ARI shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 28.72% yearly.
  • The Revenue has decreased by -9.40% in the past year.
  • Measured over the past years, ARI shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 11.34% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-20.3%
EPS 3Y-8.42%
EPS 5Y28.72%
EPS Q2Q%-18.75%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-9.4%
Revenue growth 3Y8.42%
Revenue growth 5Y11.34%
Sales Q2Q%1.38%

3.2 Future

  • ARI is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 3.07% yearly.
  • ARI is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 0.28% yearly.
EPS Next Y-106.03%
EPS Next 2Y3.07%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year17.83%
Revenue Next 2Y0.28%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
ARI Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesARI Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 200M 400M 600M 800M
ARI Yearly EPS VS EstimatesARI Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 0 0.5 1 1.5

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3

4. ARI Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • The Price/Earnings ratio is 10.44, which indicates a very decent valuation of ARI.
  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, ARI is valued a bit cheaper than 66.18% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ARI is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.18, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
  • The Forward Price/Earnings Ratio is negative for ARI. No positive earnings are expected for the next year.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 10.44
Fwd PE N/A
ARI Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsARI Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 0 50 -50 -100 -150

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ARI is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 70.59% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • ARI's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 36.29
EV/EBITDA 74.64
ARI Per share dataARI EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 2 4 6 8 10

4.3 Compensation for Growth

PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.36
EPS Next 2Y3.07%
EPS Next 3YN/A

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

4

5. ARI Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • ARI has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 9.23%, which is a nice return.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 12.92, ARI's dividend is way lower than its industry peers. On top of this 89.71% of the companies listed in the same industry pay a better dividend than ARI!
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.82, ARI pays a better dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 9.23%

5.2 History

  • The dividend of ARI decreases each year by -8.38%.
  • ARI has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-8.38%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
ARI Yearly Dividends per shareARI Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.5 1 1.5

5.3 Sustainability

  • ARI pays out 137.20% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
DP137.2%
EPS Next 2Y3.07%
EPS Next 3YN/A
ARI Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendARI Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100M -100M 200M
ARI Dividend Payout.ARI Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.ARI Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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ARI Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT

NYSE:ARI (4/14/2026, 1:30:06 PM)

11.065

-0.02 (-0.14%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryMortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)"
Earnings (Last)02-10
Earnings (Next)04-28
Inst Owners70.32%
Inst Owner Change-0.1%
Ins Owners0.65%
Ins Owner Change7.27%
Market Cap1.54B
Revenue(TTM)731.68M
Net Income(TTM)111.91M
Analysts82.22
Price Target11.73 (6.01%)
Short Float %4.37%
Short Ratio4.15
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 9.23%
Yearly Dividend1.11
Dividend Growth(5Y)-8.38%
DP137.2%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date03-31
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)22.59%
Min EPS beat(2)6.37%
Max EPS beat(2)38.8%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)15.48%
Min EPS beat(4)4.64%
Max EPS beat(4)38.8%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)18.61%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)3.76%
EPS beat(16)14
Avg EPS beat(16)3.22%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-12.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)-16.96%
Max Revenue beat(2)-8.12%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-13.75%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.78%
Max Revenue beat(4)-8.12%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-10.85%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-10.22%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)17.84%
PT rev (1m)3.6%
PT rev (3m)9%
EPS NQ rev (1m)29.76%
EPS NQ rev (3m)29.76%
EPS NY rev (1m)-108.26%
EPS NY rev (3m)-106.75%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.15%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.79%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 10.44
Fwd PE N/A
P/S 2.1
P/FCF 36.29
P/OCF 10.77
P/B 0.83
P/tB 0.83
EV/EBITDA 74.64
EPS(TTM)1.06
EY9.58%
EPS(NY)-0.06
Fwd EYN/A
FCF(TTM)0.3
FCFY2.76%
OCF(TTM)1.03
OCFY9.28%
SpS5.27
BVpS13.38
TBVpS13.38
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.36
Graham Number17.86
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.13%
ROE 6.03%
ROCE 1.25%
ROIC 0.99%
ROICexc 1%
ROICexgc 1.01%
OM 15.53%
PM (TTM) 15.3%
GM 37.12%
FCFM 5.78%
ROA(3y)-0.01%
ROA(5y)1.01%
ROE(3y)0.23%
ROE(5y)4.05%
ROIC(3y)1.47%
ROIC(5y)1.71%
ROICexc(3y)1.51%
ROICexc(5y)1.78%
ROICexgc(3y)1.53%
ROICexgc(5y)1.79%
ROCE(3y)1.86%
ROCE(5y)2.17%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-15.88%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-25.18%
ROICexc growth 3Y-15.6%
ROICexc growth 5Y-25.13%
OM growth 3Y-21.24%
OM growth 5Y-20.73%
PM growth 3Y-29.33%
PM growth 5Y115.72%
GM growth 3Y-11.13%
GM growth 5Y-10.65%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.07
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.89
Debt/FCF 187.14
Debt/EBITDA 57.83
Cap/Depr 896.89%
Cap/Sales 13.7%
Interest Coverage 0.25
Cash Conversion 114.2%
Profit Quality 37.81%
Current Ratio 0.26
Quick Ratio 0.26
Altman-Z 0.04
F-Score4
WACC6.27%
ROIC/WACC0.16
Cap/Depr(3y)1076.74%
Cap/Depr(5y)1585.55%
Cap/Sales(3y)14.55%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.89%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-20.3%
EPS 3Y-8.42%
EPS 5Y28.72%
EPS Q2Q%-18.75%
EPS Next Y-106.03%
EPS Next 2Y3.07%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-9.4%
Revenue growth 3Y8.42%
Revenue growth 5Y11.34%
Sales Q2Q%1.38%
Revenue Next Year17.83%
Revenue Next 2Y0.28%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-21.39%
EBIT growth 3Y-14.61%
EBIT growth 5Y-11.73%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y35.06%
FCF growth 3Y-43.04%
FCF growth 5Y-23.74%
OCF growth 1Y-29.04%
OCF growth 3Y-18.37%
OCF growth 5Y-2.78%

APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT / ARI Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the fundamental rating for ARI stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to ARI.


What is the valuation status for ARI stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI). This can be considered as Overvalued.


Can you provide the profitability details for APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT?

APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.


What is the financial health of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) stock?

The financial health rating of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) is 2 / 10.


Can you provide the dividend sustainability for ARI stock?

The dividend rating of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) is 4 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 137.2%.