APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:ARI • US03762U1051

10.68 USD
+0.13 (+1.23%)
At close: Mar 4, 2026
10.77 USD
+0.09 (+0.84%)
After Hours: 3/4/2026, 8:08:50 PM
Overview Stock Chart Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis Forecast Earnings Financials Ownership News

This ARI fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

Fundamental Rating

4

Overall ARI gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated ARI against 68 industry peers in the Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)" industry. There are concerns on the financial health of ARI while its profitability can be described as average. ARI has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

6

1. ARI Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year ARI was profitable.
  • In the past year ARI had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • ARI had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
  • ARI had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
ARI Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFARI Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100M -100M 200M

1.2 Ratios

  • Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 1.13%, ARI belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.29% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Return On Equity of ARI (6.03%) is better than 80.88% of its industry peers.
  • ARI has a better Return On Invested Capital (0.99%) than 76.47% of its industry peers.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for ARI is in line with the industry average of 1.22%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.13%
ROE 6.03%
ROIC 0.99%
ROA(3y)-0.01%
ROA(5y)1.01%
ROE(3y)0.23%
ROE(5y)4.05%
ROIC(3y)1.47%
ROIC(5y)1.71%
ARI Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICARI Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5 -5 10

1.3 Margins

  • ARI's Profit Margin of 15.30% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ARI outperforms 64.71% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ARI has grown nicely.
  • Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 15.53%, ARI is in line with its industry, outperforming 58.82% of the companies in the same industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ARI has declined.
  • ARI's Gross Margin of 37.12% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ARI outperforms 75.00% of its industry peers.
  • ARI's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 15.53%
PM (TTM) 15.3%
GM 37.12%
OM growth 3Y-21.24%
OM growth 5Y-20.73%
PM growth 3Y-29.33%
PM growth 5Y115.72%
GM growth 3Y-11.13%
GM growth 5Y-10.65%
ARI Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsARI Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 40 60

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2

2. ARI Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so ARI is destroying value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for ARI has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
  • ARI has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, ARI has a worse debt to assets ratio.
ARI Yearly Shares OutstandingARI Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 50M 100M 150M
ARI Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsARI Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B 8B

2.2 Solvency

  • ARI has an Altman-Z score of 0.03. This is a bad value and indicates that ARI is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • With a decent Altman-Z score value of 0.03, ARI is doing good in the industry, outperforming 70.59% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ARI has a debt to FCF ratio of 187.14. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as ARI would need 187.14 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • ARI has a worse Debt to FCF ratio (187.14) than 66.18% of its industry peers.
  • ARI has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.89. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • With a decent Debt to Equity ratio value of 3.89, ARI is doing good in the industry, outperforming 64.71% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.89
Debt/FCF 187.14
Altman-Z 0.03
ROIC/WACC0.16
WACC6.16%
ARI Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFARI Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B

2.3 Liquidity

  • ARI has a Current Ratio of 0.26. This is a bad value and indicates that ARI is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • ARI has a Current ratio of 0.26. This is in the better half of the industry: ARI outperforms 63.24% of its industry peers.
  • ARI has a Quick Ratio of 0.26. This is a bad value and indicates that ARI is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • ARI has a Quick ratio of 0.26. This is in the better half of the industry: ARI outperforms 63.24% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.26
Quick Ratio 0.26
ARI Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesARI Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500M 1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B

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5

3. ARI Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The earnings per share for ARI have decreased strongly by -20.30% in the last year.
  • ARI shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 28.72% yearly.
  • The Revenue has decreased by -9.40% in the past year.
  • The Revenue has been growing by 11.34% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-20.3%
EPS 3Y-8.42%
EPS 5Y28.72%
EPS Q2Q%-18.75%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-9.4%
Revenue growth 3Y8.42%
Revenue growth 5Y11.34%
Sales Q2Q%1.38%

3.2 Future

  • ARI is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 6.03% yearly.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, ARI will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 12.55% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-7.58%
EPS Next 2Y6.03%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year16.31%
Revenue Next 2Y12.55%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
  • The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
ARI Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesARI Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 200M 400M 600M 800M
ARI Yearly EPS VS EstimatesARI Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 0.5 1 1.5

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5

4. ARI Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • ARI is valuated reasonably with a Price/Earnings ratio of 10.08.
  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, ARI is valued a bit cheaper than 67.65% of the companies in the same industry.
  • When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of ARI to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.03), we can say ARI is valued rather cheaply.
  • ARI is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.90.
  • ARI's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 25.11. ARI is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 10.08
Fwd PE 10.9
ARI Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsARI Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

  • 79.41% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ARI, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
  • The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as ARI.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 35.07
EV/EBITDA 74.07
ARI Per share dataARI EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 2 4 6 8 10

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The decent profitability rating of ARI may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.35
EPS Next 2Y6.03%
EPS Next 3YN/A

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

4

5. ARI Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • ARI has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 9.33%, which is a nice return.
  • ARI's Dividend Yield is slightly below the industry average, which is at 11.29.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.82, ARI pays a better dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 9.33%

5.2 History

  • The dividend of ARI decreases each year by -8.38%.
  • ARI has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-8.38%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
ARI Yearly Dividends per shareARI Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0.5 1 1.5

5.3 Sustainability

  • ARI pays out 137.20% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
DP137.2%
EPS Next 2Y6.03%
EPS Next 3YN/A
ARI Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendARI Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100M -100M 200M
ARI Dividend Payout.ARI Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.ARI Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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ARI Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT

NYSE:ARI (3/4/2026, 8:08:50 PM)

After market: 10.77 +0.09 (+0.84%)

10.68

+0.13 (+1.23%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryMortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)"
Earnings (Last)02-10
Earnings (Next)04-22
Inst Owners69.07%
Inst Owner Change1.38%
Ins Owners0.56%
Ins Owner Change-2.3%
Market Cap1.48B
Revenue(TTM)731.68M
Net Income(TTM)111.91M
Analysts82.22
Price Target11.32 (5.99%)
Short Float %2.83%
Short Ratio3.03
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 9.33%
Yearly Dividend1.11
Dividend Growth(5Y)-8.38%
DP137.2%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)22.59%
Min EPS beat(2)6.37%
Max EPS beat(2)38.8%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)15.48%
Min EPS beat(4)4.64%
Max EPS beat(4)38.8%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)18.61%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)3.76%
EPS beat(16)14
Avg EPS beat(16)3.22%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-12.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)-16.96%
Max Revenue beat(2)-8.12%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-13.75%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.78%
Max Revenue beat(4)-8.12%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-10.85%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-10.22%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)17.84%
PT rev (1m)2.86%
PT rev (3m)5.21%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-3.67%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.2%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.22%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.52%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-3.12%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.15%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.52%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 10.08
Fwd PE 10.9
P/S 2.03
P/FCF 35.07
P/OCF 10.41
P/B 0.8
P/tB 0.8
EV/EBITDA 74.07
EPS(TTM)1.06
EY9.93%
EPS(NY)0.98
Fwd EY9.17%
FCF(TTM)0.3
FCFY2.85%
OCF(TTM)1.03
OCFY9.6%
SpS5.27
BVpS13.36
TBVpS13.36
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.35
Graham Number17.85
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.13%
ROE 6.03%
ROCE 1.25%
ROIC 0.99%
ROICexc 1%
ROICexgc 1.01%
OM 15.53%
PM (TTM) 15.3%
GM 37.12%
FCFM 5.78%
ROA(3y)-0.01%
ROA(5y)1.01%
ROE(3y)0.23%
ROE(5y)4.05%
ROIC(3y)1.47%
ROIC(5y)1.71%
ROICexc(3y)1.51%
ROICexc(5y)1.78%
ROICexgc(3y)1.53%
ROICexgc(5y)1.79%
ROCE(3y)1.86%
ROCE(5y)2.17%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-15.88%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-25.18%
ROICexc growth 3Y-15.6%
ROICexc growth 5Y-25.13%
OM growth 3Y-21.24%
OM growth 5Y-20.73%
PM growth 3Y-29.33%
PM growth 5Y115.72%
GM growth 3Y-11.13%
GM growth 5Y-10.65%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.07
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.89
Debt/FCF 187.14
Debt/EBITDA 57.83
Cap/Depr 896.89%
Cap/Sales 13.7%
Interest Coverage 0.25
Cash Conversion 114.2%
Profit Quality 37.81%
Current Ratio 0.26
Quick Ratio 0.26
Altman-Z 0.03
F-Score4
WACC6.16%
ROIC/WACC0.16
Cap/Depr(3y)1076.74%
Cap/Depr(5y)1585.55%
Cap/Sales(3y)14.55%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.89%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-20.3%
EPS 3Y-8.42%
EPS 5Y28.72%
EPS Q2Q%-18.75%
EPS Next Y-7.58%
EPS Next 2Y6.03%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-9.4%
Revenue growth 3Y8.42%
Revenue growth 5Y11.34%
Sales Q2Q%1.38%
Revenue Next Year16.31%
Revenue Next 2Y12.55%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-21.39%
EBIT growth 3Y-14.61%
EBIT growth 5Y-11.73%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y35.06%
FCF growth 3Y-43.04%
FCF growth 5Y-23.74%
OCF growth 1Y-29.04%
OCF growth 3Y-18.37%
OCF growth 5Y-2.78%

APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT / ARI FAQ

What is the fundamental rating for ARI stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to ARI.


What is the valuation status for ARI stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) stock?

APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.


What are the PE and PB ratios of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) stock?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) is 10.08 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 0.8.


Is the dividend of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT sustainable?

The dividend rating of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) is 4 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 137.2%.