APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:ARI • US03762U1051

Current stock price

10.644 USD
+0.01 (+0.13%)
Last:

This ARI fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

5

1. ARI Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year ARI was profitable.
  • ARI had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • Of the past 5 years ARI 4 years were profitable.
  • Each year in the past 5 years ARI had a positive operating cash flow.
ARI Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFARI Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100M -100M 200M

1.2 Ratios

  • With a decent Return On Assets value of 1.13%, ARI is doing good in the industry, outperforming 72.06% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ARI has a Return On Equity (6.03%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • ARI has a Return On Invested Capital of 0.99%. This is in the better half of the industry: ARI outperforms 66.18% of its industry peers.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for ARI is in line with the industry average of 1.30%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.13%
ROE 6.03%
ROIC 0.99%
ROA(3y)-0.01%
ROA(5y)1.01%
ROE(3y)0.23%
ROE(5y)4.05%
ROIC(3y)1.47%
ROIC(5y)1.71%
ARI Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICARI Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5 -5 10

1.3 Margins

  • ARI has a Profit Margin of 15.30%. This is in the better half of the industry: ARI outperforms 60.29% of its industry peers.
  • ARI's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • The Operating Margin of ARI (15.53%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ARI has declined.
  • ARI has a Gross Margin (37.12%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • ARI's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 15.53%
PM (TTM) 15.3%
GM 37.12%
OM growth 3Y-21.24%
OM growth 5Y-20.73%
PM growth 3Y-29.33%
PM growth 5Y115.72%
GM growth 3Y-11.13%
GM growth 5Y-10.65%
ARI Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsARI Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 40 60

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2

2. ARI Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), ARI is destroying value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, ARI has more shares outstanding
  • Compared to 5 years ago, ARI has less shares outstanding
  • The debt/assets ratio for ARI is higher compared to a year ago.
ARI Yearly Shares OutstandingARI Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 50M 100M 150M
ARI Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsARI Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B 8B

2.2 Solvency

  • Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.03, we must say that ARI is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • ARI has a better Altman-Z score (0.03) than 70.59% of its industry peers.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of ARI is 187.14, which is on the high side as it means it would take ARI, 187.14 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 187.14, ARI is doing worse than 70.59% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ARI has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.89. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • ARI has a better Debt to Equity ratio (3.89) than 64.71% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.89
Debt/FCF 187.14
Altman-Z 0.03
ROIC/WACC0.16
WACC6.26%
ARI Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFARI Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B

2.3 Liquidity

  • ARI has a Current Ratio of 0.26. This is a bad value and indicates that ARI is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • ARI has a Current ratio of 0.26. This is in the better half of the industry: ARI outperforms 72.06% of its industry peers.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.26 indicates that ARI may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.26, ARI is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 72.06% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.26
Quick Ratio 0.26
ARI Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesARI Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500M 1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B

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4

3. ARI Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The earnings per share for ARI have decreased strongly by -20.30% in the last year.
  • ARI shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 28.72% yearly.
  • Looking at the last year, ARI shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -9.40% in the last year.
  • ARI shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 11.34% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-20.3%
EPS 3Y-8.42%
EPS 5Y28.72%
EPS Q2Q%-18.75%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-9.4%
Revenue growth 3Y8.42%
Revenue growth 5Y11.34%
Sales Q2Q%1.38%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 3.07% on average over the next years.
  • ARI is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 0.28% yearly.
EPS Next Y-26.95%
EPS Next 2Y3.07%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year17.83%
Revenue Next 2Y0.28%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
ARI Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesARI Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 200M 400M 600M 800M
ARI Yearly EPS VS EstimatesARI Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 0.5 1 1.5

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4

4. ARI Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • The Price/Earnings ratio is 10.04, which indicates a very decent valuation of ARI.
  • ARI's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. ARI is cheaper than 66.18% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ARI's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 25.61.
  • With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.75, ARI is valued correctly.
  • ARI's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
  • ARI is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.79, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 10.04
Fwd PE 13.75
ARI Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsARI Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60 80

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ARI is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 70.59% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • ARI's Price/Free Cash Flow is on the same level as the industry average.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 35.12
EV/EBITDA 74.22
ARI Per share dataARI EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 2 4 6 8 10

4.3 Compensation for Growth

PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.35
EPS Next 2Y3.07%
EPS Next 3YN/A

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

4

5. ARI Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 9.62%, ARI is a good candidate for dividend investing.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 11.96, ARI's dividend is way lower than its industry peers. On top of this 82.35% of the companies listed in the same industry pay a better dividend than ARI!
  • ARI's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 1.89.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 9.62%

5.2 History

  • The dividend of ARI decreases each year by -8.38%.
  • ARI has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-8.38%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
ARI Yearly Dividends per shareARI Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.5 1 1.5

5.3 Sustainability

  • 137.20% of the earnings are spent on dividend by ARI. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
DP137.2%
EPS Next 2Y3.07%
EPS Next 3YN/A
ARI Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendARI Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100M -100M 200M
ARI Dividend Payout.ARI Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.ARI Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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ARI Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT

NYSE:ARI (3/26/2026, 1:37:09 PM)

10.644

+0.01 (+0.13%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryMortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)"
Earnings (Last)02-10
Earnings (Next)04-22
Inst Owners69.64%
Inst Owner Change1.69%
Ins Owners0.61%
Ins Owner Change2.02%
Market Cap1.49B
Revenue(TTM)731.68M
Net Income(TTM)111.91M
Analysts82.22
Price Target11.32 (6.35%)
Short Float %2.9%
Short Ratio3.02
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 9.62%
Yearly Dividend1.11
Dividend Growth(5Y)-8.38%
DP137.2%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date03-31
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)22.59%
Min EPS beat(2)6.37%
Max EPS beat(2)38.8%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)15.48%
Min EPS beat(4)4.64%
Max EPS beat(4)38.8%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)18.61%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)3.76%
EPS beat(16)14
Avg EPS beat(16)3.22%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-12.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)-16.96%
Max Revenue beat(2)-8.12%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-13.75%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.78%
Max Revenue beat(4)-8.12%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-10.85%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-10.22%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)17.84%
PT rev (1m)1.37%
PT rev (3m)5.21%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.2%
EPS NY rev (1m)-20.96%
EPS NY rev (3m)-18.22%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-3.12%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.15%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.31%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.79%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 10.04
Fwd PE 13.75
P/S 2.03
P/FCF 35.12
P/OCF 10.43
P/B 0.8
P/tB 0.8
EV/EBITDA 74.22
EPS(TTM)1.06
EY9.96%
EPS(NY)0.77
Fwd EY7.27%
FCF(TTM)0.3
FCFY2.85%
OCF(TTM)1.02
OCFY9.59%
SpS5.24
BVpS13.3
TBVpS13.3
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.35
Graham Number17.81
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.13%
ROE 6.03%
ROCE 1.25%
ROIC 0.99%
ROICexc 1%
ROICexgc 1.01%
OM 15.53%
PM (TTM) 15.3%
GM 37.12%
FCFM 5.78%
ROA(3y)-0.01%
ROA(5y)1.01%
ROE(3y)0.23%
ROE(5y)4.05%
ROIC(3y)1.47%
ROIC(5y)1.71%
ROICexc(3y)1.51%
ROICexc(5y)1.78%
ROICexgc(3y)1.53%
ROICexgc(5y)1.79%
ROCE(3y)1.86%
ROCE(5y)2.17%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-15.88%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-25.18%
ROICexc growth 3Y-15.6%
ROICexc growth 5Y-25.13%
OM growth 3Y-21.24%
OM growth 5Y-20.73%
PM growth 3Y-29.33%
PM growth 5Y115.72%
GM growth 3Y-11.13%
GM growth 5Y-10.65%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.07
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.89
Debt/FCF 187.14
Debt/EBITDA 57.83
Cap/Depr 896.89%
Cap/Sales 13.7%
Interest Coverage 0.25
Cash Conversion 114.2%
Profit Quality 37.81%
Current Ratio 0.26
Quick Ratio 0.26
Altman-Z 0.03
F-Score4
WACC6.26%
ROIC/WACC0.16
Cap/Depr(3y)1076.74%
Cap/Depr(5y)1585.55%
Cap/Sales(3y)14.55%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.89%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-20.3%
EPS 3Y-8.42%
EPS 5Y28.72%
EPS Q2Q%-18.75%
EPS Next Y-26.95%
EPS Next 2Y3.07%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-9.4%
Revenue growth 3Y8.42%
Revenue growth 5Y11.34%
Sales Q2Q%1.38%
Revenue Next Year17.83%
Revenue Next 2Y0.28%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-21.39%
EBIT growth 3Y-14.61%
EBIT growth 5Y-11.73%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y35.06%
FCF growth 3Y-43.04%
FCF growth 5Y-23.74%
OCF growth 1Y-29.04%
OCF growth 3Y-18.37%
OCF growth 5Y-2.78%

APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT / ARI Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the fundamental rating for ARI stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to ARI.


What is the valuation status for ARI stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) stock?

APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.


What are the PE and PB ratios of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) stock?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) is 10.04 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 0.8.


Is the dividend of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT sustainable?

The dividend rating of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) is 4 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 137.2%.