APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:ARI - US03762U1051 - REIT
9.765 USD
+0.05 (+0.57%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to ARI. ARI was compared to 68 industry peers in the Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)" industry. There are concerns on the financial health of ARI while its profitability can be described as average. ARI is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ARI had positive earnings in the past year.
ARI had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years ARI 4 years were profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years ARI had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of -0.19%, ARI is doing worse than 66.18% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Equity of ARI (-1.03%) is worse than 66.18% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 1.26%, ARI belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 82.35% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for ARI is in line with the industry average of 1.19%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.19% | ||
| ROE | -1.03% | ||
| ROIC | 1.26% |
ROA(3y)0.48%
ROA(5y)0.78%
ROE(3y)1.75%
ROE(5y)2.86%
ROIC(3y)1.68%
ROIC(5y)2.3%
1.3 Margins
ARI's Operating Margin of 16.50% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ARI outperforms 77.94% of its industry peers.
ARI's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 36.89%, ARI is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 79.41% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ARI has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 16.5% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 36.89% |
OM growth 3Y-25.68%
OM growth 5Y-20.21%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-16.09%
GM growth 5Y-11.34%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), ARI is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, ARI has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, ARI has less shares outstanding
ARI has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of -0.11, we must say that ARI is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
ARI's Altman-Z score of -0.11 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ARI outperforms 51.47% of its industry peers.
ARI has a debt to FCF ratio of 152.71. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as ARI would need 152.71 years to pay back of all of its debts.
ARI's Debt to FCF ratio of 152.71 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ARI outperforms 45.59% of its industry peers.
ARI has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.21. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
ARI has a better Debt to Equity ratio (3.21) than 72.06% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.21 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 152.71 | ||
| Altman-Z | -0.11 |
ROIC/WACC0.18
WACC7.04%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.13 indicates that ARI may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
ARI's Current ratio of 0.13 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ARI outperforms 42.65% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.13 indicates that ARI may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.13, ARI perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 42.65% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.13 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.13 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
ARI shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -18.25%.
Measured over the past years, ARI shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -6.89% on average per year.
ARI shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -0.38%.
Measured over the past years, ARI shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 10.63% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.25%
EPS 3Y0%
EPS 5Y-6.89%
EPS Q2Q%-3.23%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.38%
Revenue growth 3Y21.79%
Revenue growth 5Y10.63%
Sales Q2Q%-14.89%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -3.05% on average over the next years.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 3.65% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-31.65%
EPS Next 2Y-14.4%
EPS Next 3Y-3.05%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-10.36%
Revenue Next 2Y1.37%
Revenue Next 3Y3.65%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 8.72, the valuation of ARI can be described as reasonable.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of ARI indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: ARI is cheaper than 73.53% of the companies listed in the same industry.
ARI is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.51, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.02, the valuation of ARI can be described as reasonable.
ARI's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
ARI is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.53, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.72 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.02 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of ARI indicates a rather cheap valuation: ARI is cheaper than 80.88% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of ARI is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 26.51 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 66.87 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
A cheap valuation may be justified as ARI's earnings are expected to decrease with -3.05% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-14.4%
EPS Next 3Y-3.05%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
ARI has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 10.30%, which is a nice return.
ARI's Dividend Yield is slightly below the industry average, which is at 12.83.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.38, ARI pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.3% |
5.2 History
The dividend of ARI decreases each year by -6.89%.
ARI has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-6.89%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
ARI has negative earnings and hence a negative payout ratio. The dividend may be in danger.
ARI's earnings and Dividend Rate are declining. This means the current dividend is most likely not sustainable.
DP-879.4%
EPS Next 2Y-14.4%
EPS Next 3Y-3.05%
NYSE:ARI (11/4/2025, 10:17:12 AM)
9.765
+0.05 (+0.57%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryMortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)"
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners67.64%
Inst Owner Change-23.68%
Ins Owners0.6%
Ins Owner Change-8.82%
Market Cap1.36B
Revenue(TTM)807.62M
Net Income(TTM)-19042000
Analysts74
Price Target10.71 (9.68%)
Short Float %2.44%
Short Ratio4.05
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.3% |
Yearly Dividend1.42
Dividend Growth(5Y)-6.89%
DP-879.4%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)8.37%
Min EPS beat(2)4.64%
Max EPS beat(2)12.09%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)19.02%
Min EPS beat(4)4.64%
Max EPS beat(4)39.78%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)14.21%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)-0.49%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)0.01%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-14.96%
Min Revenue beat(2)-20.78%
Max Revenue beat(2)-9.14%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-11.28%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.78%
Max Revenue beat(4)-6.72%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-10.29%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)12.33%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)27.87%
PT rev (1m)0.6%
PT rev (3m)0.6%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-3.6%
EPS NQ rev (3m)10.31%
EPS NY rev (1m)-2.17%
EPS NY rev (3m)3.92%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.07%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.62%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.13%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.21%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.72 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.02 | ||
| P/S | 1.8 | ||
| P/FCF | 26.51 | ||
| P/OCF | 6.79 | ||
| P/B | 0.73 | ||
| P/tB | 0.73 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 66.87 |
EPS(TTM)1.12
EY11.47%
EPS(NY)0.97
Fwd EY9.98%
FCF(TTM)0.37
FCFY3.77%
OCF(TTM)1.44
OCFY14.72%
SpS5.44
BVpS13.29
TBVpS13.29
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number18.3
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.19% | ||
| ROE | -1.03% | ||
| ROCE | 1.59% | ||
| ROIC | 1.26% | ||
| ROICexc | 1.29% | ||
| ROICexgc | 1.3% | ||
| OM | 16.5% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 36.89% | ||
| FCFM | 6.77% |
ROA(3y)0.48%
ROA(5y)0.78%
ROE(3y)1.75%
ROE(5y)2.86%
ROIC(3y)1.68%
ROIC(5y)2.3%
ROICexc(3y)1.74%
ROICexc(5y)2.43%
ROICexgc(3y)1.75%
ROICexgc(5y)2.45%
ROCE(3y)2.13%
ROCE(5y)2.91%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-15.06%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-22.32%
ROICexc growth 3Y-15.31%
ROICexc growth 5Y-22.29%
OM growth 3Y-25.68%
OM growth 5Y-20.21%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-16.09%
GM growth 5Y-11.34%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.08
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.21 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 152.71 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 44.1 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 1529.33% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 19.66% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 0.27 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 148.6% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.13 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.13 | ||
| Altman-Z | -0.11 |
F-Score4
WACC7.04%
ROIC/WACC0.18
Cap/Depr(3y)2341.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)11.9%
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.25%
EPS 3Y0%
EPS 5Y-6.89%
EPS Q2Q%-3.23%
EPS Next Y-31.65%
EPS Next 2Y-14.4%
EPS Next 3Y-3.05%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.38%
Revenue growth 3Y21.79%
Revenue growth 5Y10.63%
Sales Q2Q%-14.89%
Revenue Next Year-10.36%
Revenue Next 2Y1.37%
Revenue Next 3Y3.65%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-26.63%
EBIT growth 3Y-9.49%
EBIT growth 5Y-11.73%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-81.03%
FCF growth 3Y-46.03%
FCF growth 5Y-35.16%
OCF growth 1Y-39.88%
OCF growth 3Y0.24%
OCF growth 5Y-5.98%
APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT / ARI FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for ARI stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to ARI.
Can you provide the valuation status for APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) stock?
APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
How financially healthy is APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT?
The financial health rating of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) is 3 / 10.
How sustainable is the dividend of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) stock?
The dividend rating of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) is 4 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is -879.4%.