APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:ARI - US03762U1051 - REIT
10.77 USD
-0.07 (-0.65%)
10.77 USD
0 (0%)
Taking everything into account, ARI scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. ARI was compared to 62 industry peers in the Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)" industry. ARI has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. ARI has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ARI had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year ARI had a positive cash flow from operations.
ARI had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
ARI had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of ARI (-0.19%) is worse than 61.29% of its industry peers.
ARI's Return On Equity of -1.03% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. ARI is outperformed by 61.29% of its industry peers.
ARI has a Return On Invested Capital of 1.26%. This is amongst the best in the industry. ARI outperforms 80.65% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for ARI is in line with the industry average of 1.39%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.19% | ||
| ROE | -1.03% | ||
| ROIC | 1.26% |
ROA(3y)0.48%
ROA(5y)0.78%
ROE(3y)1.75%
ROE(5y)2.86%
ROIC(3y)1.68%
ROIC(5y)2.3%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 16.50%, ARI is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 77.42% of the companies in the same industry.
ARI's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 36.89%, ARI belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 80.65% of the companies in the same industry.
ARI's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 16.5% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 36.89% |
OM growth 3Y-25.68%
OM growth 5Y-20.21%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-16.09%
GM growth 5Y-11.34%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
ARI has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, ARI has less shares outstanding
ARI has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, ARI has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of -0.10, we must say that ARI is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of ARI (-0.10) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
ARI has a debt to FCF ratio of 152.71. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as ARI would need 152.71 years to pay back of all of its debts.
ARI has a Debt to FCF ratio of 152.71. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ARI outperforms 46.77% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 3.21 is on the high side and indicates that ARI has dependencies on debt financing.
ARI's Debt to Equity ratio of 3.21 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ARI outperforms 67.74% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.21 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 152.71 | ||
| Altman-Z | -0.1 |
ROIC/WACC0.17
WACC7.22%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.13 indicates that ARI may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
ARI's Current ratio of 0.13 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. ARI is outperformed by 61.29% of its industry peers.
ARI has a Quick Ratio of 0.13. This is a bad value and indicates that ARI is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.13, ARI is not doing good in the industry: 61.29% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.13 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.13 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
ARI shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -20.98%.
The Earnings Per Share has been decreasing by -6.89% on average over the past years.
Looking at the last year, ARI shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -8.78% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, ARI shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 10.63% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-20.98%
EPS 3Y0%
EPS 5Y-6.89%
EPS Q2Q%-25.71%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-8.78%
Revenue growth 3Y21.79%
Revenue growth 5Y10.63%
Sales Q2Q%-16.79%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 8.29% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
Based on estimates for the next years, ARI will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 3.05% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-31.81%
EPS Next 2Y-13.18%
EPS Next 3Y8.29%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-10.24%
Revenue Next 2Y3.05%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 9.53, the valuation of ARI can be described as reasonable.
ARI's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. ARI is cheaper than 72.58% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.27, ARI is valued rather cheaply.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.74, the valuation of ARI can be described as very reasonable.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ARI is on the same level as its industry peers.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ARI to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.77), we can say ARI is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.53 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.74 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of ARI indicates a rather cheap valuation: ARI is cheaper than 80.65% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of ARI is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 29.24 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 68.04 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-13.18%
EPS Next 3Y8.29%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
ARI has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 9.09%, which is a nice return.
ARI's Dividend Yield is slightly below the industry average, which is at 11.50.
ARI's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.38.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 9.09% |
5.2 History
The dividend of ARI decreases each year by -6.89%.
ARI has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-6.89%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
The earnings of ARI are negative and hence is the payout ratio. ARI will probably not be able to sustain this dividend level.
DP-879.4%
EPS Next 2Y-13.18%
EPS Next 3Y8.29%
10.77
-0.07 (-0.65%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryMortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)"
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners68.27%
Inst Owner Change31.07%
Ins Owners0.64%
Ins Owner Change-2.71%
Market Cap1.50B
Analysts72
Price Target10.65 (-1.11%)
Short Float %2.23%
Short Ratio2.83
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 9.09% |
Yearly Dividend1.42
Dividend Growth(5Y)-6.89%
DP-879.4%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)8.37%
Min EPS beat(2)4.64%
Max EPS beat(2)12.09%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)19.02%
Min EPS beat(4)4.64%
Max EPS beat(4)39.78%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)14.21%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)-0.49%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)0.01%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-14.96%
Min Revenue beat(2)-20.78%
Max Revenue beat(2)-9.14%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-11.28%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.78%
Max Revenue beat(4)-6.72%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-10.29%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)12.33%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)27.87%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)1.83%
EPS NQ rev (1m)4.72%
EPS NQ rev (3m)15.63%
EPS NY rev (1m)3.46%
EPS NY rev (3m)3.46%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.6%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-1.09%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-4.57%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.53 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.74 | ||
| P/S | 1.98 | ||
| P/FCF | 29.24 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.49 | ||
| P/B | 0.81 | ||
| P/tB | 0.81 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 68.04 |
EPS(TTM)1.13
EY10.49%
EPS(NY)1
Fwd EY9.31%
FCF(TTM)0.37
FCFY3.42%
OCF(TTM)1.44
OCFY13.35%
SpS5.44
BVpS13.29
TBVpS13.29
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.19% | ||
| ROE | -1.03% | ||
| ROCE | 1.59% | ||
| ROIC | 1.26% | ||
| ROICexc | 1.29% | ||
| ROICexgc | 1.3% | ||
| OM | 16.5% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 36.89% | ||
| FCFM | 6.77% |
ROA(3y)0.48%
ROA(5y)0.78%
ROE(3y)1.75%
ROE(5y)2.86%
ROIC(3y)1.68%
ROIC(5y)2.3%
ROICexc(3y)1.74%
ROICexc(5y)2.43%
ROICexgc(3y)1.75%
ROICexgc(5y)2.45%
ROCE(3y)2.13%
ROCE(5y)2.91%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-15.06%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-22.32%
ROICexc growth 3Y-15.31%
ROICexc growth 5Y-22.29%
OM growth 3Y-25.68%
OM growth 5Y-20.21%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-16.09%
GM growth 5Y-11.34%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.08
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.21 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 152.71 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 44.1 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 1529.33% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 19.66% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 0.27 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 148.6% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.13 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.13 | ||
| Altman-Z | -0.1 |
F-Score4
WACC7.22%
ROIC/WACC0.17
Cap/Depr(3y)2341.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)11.9%
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-20.98%
EPS 3Y0%
EPS 5Y-6.89%
EPS Q2Q%-25.71%
EPS Next Y-31.81%
EPS Next 2Y-13.18%
EPS Next 3Y8.29%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-8.78%
Revenue growth 3Y21.79%
Revenue growth 5Y10.63%
Sales Q2Q%-16.79%
Revenue Next Year-10.24%
Revenue Next 2Y3.05%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-26.63%
EBIT growth 3Y-9.49%
EBIT growth 5Y-11.73%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-81.03%
FCF growth 3Y-46.03%
FCF growth 5Y-35.16%
OCF growth 1Y-39.88%
OCF growth 3Y0.24%
OCF growth 5Y-5.98%