APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:ARI - US03762U1051 - REIT
9.97 USD
+0.02 (+0.2%)
9.97 USD
0 (0%)
ARI gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 68 industry peers in the Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)" industry. ARI has an average financial health and profitability rating. ARI has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ARI had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year ARI had a positive cash flow from operations.
ARI had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years ARI always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 1.29%, ARI belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 89.71% of the companies in the same industry.
ARI's Return On Equity of 6.61% is amongst the best of the industry. ARI outperforms 88.24% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 1.06%, ARI belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 83.82% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for ARI is in line with the industry average of 1.28%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.29% | ||
| ROE | 6.61% | ||
| ROIC | 1.06% |
ROA(3y)0.48%
ROA(5y)0.78%
ROE(3y)1.75%
ROE(5y)2.86%
ROIC(3y)1.68%
ROIC(5y)2.3%
1.3 Margins
ARI has a Profit Margin of 16.94%. This is in the better half of the industry: ARI outperforms 72.06% of its industry peers.
The Operating Margin of ARI (15.93%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
ARI's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
ARI has a better Gross Margin (36.98%) than 76.47% of its industry peers.
ARI's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 15.93% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 16.94% | ||
| GM | 36.98% |
OM growth 3Y-25.68%
OM growth 5Y-20.21%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-16.09%
GM growth 5Y-11.34%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), ARI is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for ARI has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
ARI has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for ARI is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.03, we must say that ARI is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
ARI's Altman-Z score of 0.03 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ARI outperforms 63.24% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of ARI is 134.05, which is on the high side as it means it would take ARI, 134.05 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
ARI has a better Debt to FCF ratio (134.05) than 63.24% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 3.61 is on the high side and indicates that ARI has dependencies on debt financing.
With a decent Debt to Equity ratio value of 3.61, ARI is doing good in the industry, outperforming 63.24% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.61 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 134.05 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.03 |
ROIC/WACC0.15
WACC7.02%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.35 indicates that ARI may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of ARI (0.35) is better than 61.76% of its industry peers.
ARI has a Quick Ratio of 0.35. This is a bad value and indicates that ARI is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ARI's Quick ratio of 0.35 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ARI outperforms 61.76% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.35 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.35 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
ARI shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -18.25%.
The Earnings Per Share has been decreasing by -6.89% on average over the past years.
Looking at the last year, ARI shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -12.52% in the last year.
ARI shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 10.63% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.25%
EPS 3Y0%
EPS 5Y-6.89%
EPS Q2Q%-3.23%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-12.52%
Revenue growth 3Y21.79%
Revenue growth 5Y10.63%
Sales Q2Q%-14.9%
3.2 Future
ARI is expected to show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will decrease by -3.59% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 3.65% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-32.11%
EPS Next 2Y-15.62%
EPS Next 3Y-3.59%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-10.36%
Revenue Next 2Y1.37%
Revenue Next 3Y3.65%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 8.90, the valuation of ARI can be described as reasonable.
ARI's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. ARI is cheaper than 73.53% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of ARI to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.19), we can say ARI is valued rather cheaply.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 10.53, which indicates a very decent valuation of ARI.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as ARI.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.92, ARI is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.9 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.53 |
4.2 Price Multiples
ARI's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. ARI is cheaper than 77.94% of the companies in the same industry.
ARI's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 24.68 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 68.8 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
ARI has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as ARI's earnings are expected to decrease with -3.59% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-15.62%
EPS Next 3Y-3.59%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
ARI has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 10.05%, which is a nice return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 10.90, ARI has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
ARI's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 1.92.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.05% |
5.2 History
The dividend of ARI decreases each year by -6.89%.
ARI has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-6.89%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
ARI pays out 124.11% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The Dividend Rate of ARI has been decling, while earnings will also be declining. This means the current dividend is most likely not sustainable.
DP124.11%
EPS Next 2Y-15.62%
EPS Next 3Y-3.59%
9.97
+0.02 (+0.2%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryMortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)"
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners69.07%
Inst Owner Change0.11%
Ins Owners0.56%
Ins Owner Change3.15%
Market Cap1.39B
Revenue(TTM)726.90M
Net Income(TTM)123.16M
Analysts74
Price Target10.76 (7.92%)
Short Float %2.33%
Short Ratio3.54
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.05% |
Yearly Dividend1.42
Dividend Growth(5Y)-6.89%
DP124.11%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)21.72%
Min EPS beat(2)4.64%
Max EPS beat(2)38.8%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)23.83%
Min EPS beat(4)4.64%
Max EPS beat(4)39.78%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)18.47%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)2.29%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)2.67%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-13.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-16.96%
Max Revenue beat(2)-9.14%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-13.84%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.78%
Max Revenue beat(4)-8.49%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-11.35%
Revenue beat(12)1
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.76%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)23.31%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)1.08%
EPS NQ rev (1m)17%
EPS NQ rev (3m)7.34%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-3.04%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.49%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.13%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.9 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.53 | ||
| P/S | 1.91 | ||
| P/FCF | 24.68 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.52 | ||
| P/B | 0.74 | ||
| P/tB | 0.74 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 68.8 |
EPS(TTM)1.12
EY11.23%
EPS(NY)0.95
Fwd EY9.5%
FCF(TTM)0.4
FCFY4.05%
OCF(TTM)1.33
OCFY13.3%
SpS5.23
BVpS13.4
TBVpS13.4
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number18.38
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.29% | ||
| ROE | 6.61% | ||
| ROCE | 1.34% | ||
| ROIC | 1.06% | ||
| ROICexc | 1.09% | ||
| ROICexgc | 1.1% | ||
| OM | 15.93% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 16.94% | ||
| GM | 36.98% | ||
| FCFM | 7.72% |
ROA(3y)0.48%
ROA(5y)0.78%
ROE(3y)1.75%
ROE(5y)2.86%
ROIC(3y)1.68%
ROIC(5y)2.3%
ROICexc(3y)1.74%
ROICexc(5y)2.43%
ROICexgc(3y)1.75%
ROICexgc(5y)2.45%
ROCE(3y)2.13%
ROCE(5y)2.91%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-15.06%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-22.32%
ROICexc growth 3Y-15.31%
ROICexc growth 5Y-22.29%
OM growth 3Y-25.68%
OM growth 5Y-20.21%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-16.09%
GM growth 5Y-11.34%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.08
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.61 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 134.05 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 53.41 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 1261.5% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 17.62% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 0.25 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 146.28% | ||
| Profit Quality | 45.58% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.35 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.35 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.03 |
F-Score6
WACC7.02%
ROIC/WACC0.15
Cap/Depr(3y)2341.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)11.9%
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.25%
EPS 3Y0%
EPS 5Y-6.89%
EPS Q2Q%-3.23%
EPS Next Y-32.11%
EPS Next 2Y-15.62%
EPS Next 3Y-3.59%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-12.52%
Revenue growth 3Y21.79%
Revenue growth 5Y10.63%
Sales Q2Q%-14.9%
Revenue Next Year-10.36%
Revenue Next 2Y1.37%
Revenue Next 3Y3.65%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-27.16%
EBIT growth 3Y-9.49%
EBIT growth 5Y-11.73%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-75.61%
FCF growth 3Y-46.03%
FCF growth 5Y-35.16%
OCF growth 1Y-36.29%
OCF growth 3Y0.24%
OCF growth 5Y-5.98%
APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT / ARI FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for ARI stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to ARI.
What is the valuation status for ARI stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) stock?
APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) is 8.9 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 0.74.
Is the dividend of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT sustainable?
The dividend rating of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) is 4 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 124.11%.