APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:ARI - US03762U1051 - REIT
9.97 USD
-0.18 (-1.77%)
9.98 USD
+0.01 (+0.1%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to ARI. ARI was compared to 69 industry peers in the Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)" industry. ARI has an average financial health and profitability rating. ARI has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ARI had positive earnings in the past year.
ARI had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years ARI 4 years were profitable.
ARI had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 1.29%, ARI belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 89.86% of the companies in the same industry.
ARI has a better Return On Equity (6.61%) than 88.41% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 1.06%, ARI belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 81.16% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for ARI is in line with the industry average of 1.23%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.29% | ||
| ROE | 6.61% | ||
| ROIC | 1.06% |
ROA(3y)0.48%
ROA(5y)0.78%
ROE(3y)1.75%
ROE(5y)2.86%
ROIC(3y)1.68%
ROIC(5y)2.3%
1.3 Margins
ARI's Profit Margin of 16.94% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ARI outperforms 71.01% of its industry peers.
With a Operating Margin value of 15.93%, ARI perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 56.52% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ARI has declined.
ARI has a better Gross Margin (36.98%) than 75.36% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ARI has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 15.93% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 16.94% | ||
| GM | 36.98% |
OM growth 3Y-25.68%
OM growth 5Y-20.21%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-16.09%
GM growth 5Y-11.34%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so ARI is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, ARI has less shares outstanding
ARI has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
ARI has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.03, we must say that ARI is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
ARI has a Altman-Z score of 0.03. This is in the better half of the industry: ARI outperforms 65.22% of its industry peers.
ARI has a debt to FCF ratio of 134.05. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as ARI would need 134.05 years to pay back of all of its debts.
ARI's Debt to FCF ratio of 134.05 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ARI outperforms 60.87% of its industry peers.
ARI has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.61. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
ARI has a Debt to Equity ratio of 3.61. This is in the better half of the industry: ARI outperforms 62.32% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.61 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 134.05 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.03 |
ROIC/WACC0.15
WACC7%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.35 indicates that ARI may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of ARI (0.35) is better than 60.87% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.35 indicates that ARI may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
ARI has a better Quick ratio (0.35) than 60.87% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.35 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.35 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for ARI have decreased strongly by -18.25% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, ARI shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -6.89% on average per year.
The Revenue for ARI has decreased by -12.52% in the past year. This is quite bad
ARI shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 10.63% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.25%
EPS 3Y0%
EPS 5Y-6.89%
EPS Q2Q%-3.23%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-12.52%
Revenue growth 3Y21.79%
Revenue growth 5Y10.63%
Sales Q2Q%-14.9%
3.2 Future
ARI is expected to show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will decrease by -3.05% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, ARI will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 3.65% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-31.65%
EPS Next 2Y-14.4%
EPS Next 3Y-3.05%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-10.36%
Revenue Next 2Y1.37%
Revenue Next 3Y3.65%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 8.90, which indicates a very decent valuation of ARI.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of ARI indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: ARI is cheaper than 72.46% of the companies listed in the same industry.
ARI's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 26.41.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.23, the valuation of ARI can be described as reasonable.
ARI's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ARI to the average of the S&P500 Index (35.40), we can say ARI is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.9 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.23 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ARI is valued a bit cheaper than 76.81% of the companies in the same industry.
ARI's Price/Free Cash Flow is on the same level as the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 24.68 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 69 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
ARI has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as ARI's earnings are expected to decrease with -3.05% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-14.4%
EPS Next 3Y-3.05%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
ARI has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 9.77%, which is a nice return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 13.00, ARI is paying slightly less dividend.
ARI's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.32.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 9.77% |
5.2 History
The dividend of ARI decreases each year by -6.89%.
ARI has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-6.89%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
ARI pays out 124.11% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The Dividend Rate of ARI has been decling, while earnings will also be declining. This means the current dividend is most likely not sustainable.
DP124.11%
EPS Next 2Y-14.4%
EPS Next 3Y-3.05%
9.97
-0.18 (-1.77%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryMortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)"
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners67.64%
Inst Owner Change-23.49%
Ins Owners0.6%
Ins Owner Change-8.82%
Market Cap1.39B
Revenue(TTM)726.90M
Net Income(TTM)123.16M
Analysts74
Price Target10.76 (7.92%)
Short Float %2.44%
Short Ratio3.84
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 9.77% |
Yearly Dividend1.42
Dividend Growth(5Y)-6.89%
DP124.11%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)21.72%
Min EPS beat(2)4.64%
Max EPS beat(2)38.8%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)23.83%
Min EPS beat(4)4.64%
Max EPS beat(4)39.78%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)18.47%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)2.29%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)2.67%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-13.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-16.96%
Max Revenue beat(2)-9.14%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-13.84%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.78%
Max Revenue beat(4)-8.49%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-11.35%
Revenue beat(12)1
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.76%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)23.31%
PT rev (1m)1.08%
PT rev (3m)1.08%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-3.85%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-2.91%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.22%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.22%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.49%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.13%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.9 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.23 | ||
| P/S | 1.91 | ||
| P/FCF | 24.68 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.52 | ||
| P/B | 0.74 | ||
| P/tB | 0.74 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 69 |
EPS(TTM)1.12
EY11.23%
EPS(NY)0.97
Fwd EY9.78%
FCF(TTM)0.4
FCFY4.05%
OCF(TTM)1.33
OCFY13.3%
SpS5.23
BVpS13.4
TBVpS13.4
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number18.38
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.29% | ||
| ROE | 6.61% | ||
| ROCE | 1.34% | ||
| ROIC | 1.06% | ||
| ROICexc | 1.09% | ||
| ROICexgc | 1.1% | ||
| OM | 15.93% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 16.94% | ||
| GM | 36.98% | ||
| FCFM | 7.72% |
ROA(3y)0.48%
ROA(5y)0.78%
ROE(3y)1.75%
ROE(5y)2.86%
ROIC(3y)1.68%
ROIC(5y)2.3%
ROICexc(3y)1.74%
ROICexc(5y)2.43%
ROICexgc(3y)1.75%
ROICexgc(5y)2.45%
ROCE(3y)2.13%
ROCE(5y)2.91%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-15.06%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-22.32%
ROICexc growth 3Y-15.31%
ROICexc growth 5Y-22.29%
OM growth 3Y-25.68%
OM growth 5Y-20.21%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-16.09%
GM growth 5Y-11.34%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.08
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.61 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 134.05 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 53.41 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 1261.5% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 17.62% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 0.25 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 146.28% | ||
| Profit Quality | 45.58% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.35 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.35 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.03 |
F-Score6
WACC7%
ROIC/WACC0.15
Cap/Depr(3y)2341.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)11.9%
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.25%
EPS 3Y0%
EPS 5Y-6.89%
EPS Q2Q%-3.23%
EPS Next Y-31.65%
EPS Next 2Y-14.4%
EPS Next 3Y-3.05%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-12.52%
Revenue growth 3Y21.79%
Revenue growth 5Y10.63%
Sales Q2Q%-14.9%
Revenue Next Year-10.36%
Revenue Next 2Y1.37%
Revenue Next 3Y3.65%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-27.16%
EBIT growth 3Y-9.49%
EBIT growth 5Y-11.73%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-75.61%
FCF growth 3Y-46.03%
FCF growth 5Y-35.16%
OCF growth 1Y-36.29%
OCF growth 3Y0.24%
OCF growth 5Y-5.98%
APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT / ARI FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for ARI stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to ARI.
Can you provide the valuation status for APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) stock?
APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
How financially healthy is APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT?
The financial health rating of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) is 4 / 10.
How sustainable is the dividend of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) stock?
The dividend rating of APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTAT (ARI) is 4 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 124.11%.