ANTERO RESOURCES CORP (AR)
US03674X1063 - Common Stock
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to AR. AR was compared to 205 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. Both the profitability and financial health of AR have multiple concerns. AR is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AR had negative earnings in the past year.
In the past year AR had a positive cash flow from operations.
In multiple years AR reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
In the past 5 years AR always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
AR's Return On Assets of 0.34% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AR is outperformed by 75.98% of its industry peers.
AR has a worse Return On Equity (0.64%) than 73.53% of its industry peers.
AR has a Return On Invested Capital of 1.27%. This is in the lower half of the industry: AR underperforms 78.43% of its industry peers.
AR had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 7.59%. This is significantly below the industry average of 29.02%.
The 3 year average ROIC (7.59%) for AR is well above the current ROIC(1.27%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.34% | ||
| ROE | 0.64% | ||
| ROIC | 1.27% |
ROA(3y)4.63%
ROA(5y)0.4%
ROE(3y)9.45%
ROE(5y)0.3%
ROIC(3y)7.59%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AR has a worse Profit Margin (1.03%) than 73.53% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 4.25%, AR is doing worse than 74.02% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AR has declined.
The Gross Margin of AR (70.43%) is better than 77.94% of its industry peers.
AR's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.25% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.03% | ||
| GM | 70.43% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-4.85%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y3.86%
GM growth 5Y3.36%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AR is destroying value.
AR has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, AR has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for AR is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.33, we must say that AR is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.33, AR is in line with its industry, outperforming 46.08% of the companies in the same industry.
AR has a debt to FCF ratio of 21.62. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as AR would need 21.62 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 21.62, AR is not doing good in the industry: 60.78% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.23 indicates that AR is not too dependend on debt financing.
With a decent Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.23, AR is doing good in the industry, outperforming 65.20% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.23 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 21.62 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.33 |
ROIC/WACC0.14
WACC8.92%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.28 indicates that AR may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AR's Current ratio of 0.28 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AR is outperformed by 94.12% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.28 indicates that AR may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of AR (0.28) is worse than 93.14% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.28 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.28 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AR shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -100.75%.
The earnings per share for AR have been decreasing by -14.50% on average. This is quite bad
The Revenue for AR has decreased by -21.93% in the past year. This is quite bad
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 2.49% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-100.75%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y-14.5%
EPS Q2Q%-250%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-21.93%
Revenue growth 3Y10.27%
Revenue growth 5Y2.49%
Sales Q2Q%-6.84%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AR will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 31.33% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, AR will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 6.22% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-57.85%
EPS Next 2Y106.07%
EPS Next 3Y77.2%
EPS Next 5Y31.33%
Revenue Next Year-5.96%
Revenue Next 2Y4.95%
Revenue Next 3Y5.77%
Revenue Next 5Y6.22%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings Ratio is negative for AR. In the last year negative earnings were reported.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 13.74, which indicates a correct valuation of AR.
AR's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
AR is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.83, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.74 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of AR indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: AR is more expensive than 70.59% of the companies listed in the same industry.
64.71% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than AR, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 128.02 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.81 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AR's earnings are expected to grow with 77.20% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y106.07%
EPS Next 3Y77.2%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for AR!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
ANTERO RESOURCES CORP
NYSE:AR (12/20/2024, 8:04:00 PM)
After market: 30.93 0 (0%)30.93
+0.07 (+0.23%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners83.69%
Inst Owner Change-0.43%
Ins Owners30.14%
Ins Owner Change-0.01%
Market Cap9.62B
Analysts77.42
Price Target35.51 (14.81%)
Short Float %3.32%
Short Ratio2.62
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-84.93%
Min EPS beat(2)-165.08%
Max EPS beat(2)-4.77%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-11.45%
Min EPS beat(4)-165.08%
Max EPS beat(4)116.92%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)3.83%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)-2.65%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-16.32%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.63%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.04%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.21%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.33%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.04%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.32%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)4.56%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)6.45%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.43%
PT rev (1m)3.6%
PT rev (3m)-5.58%
EPS NQ rev (1m)10.7%
EPS NQ rev (3m)22.89%
EPS NY rev (1m)31.41%
EPS NY rev (3m)-54.88%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.66%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-4.25%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.3%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.06%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.74 | ||
| P/S | 2.21 | ||
| P/FCF | 128.02 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.89 | ||
| P/B | 1.38 | ||
| P/tB | 1.38 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.81 |
EPS(TTM)-0.01
EYN/A
EPS(NY)2.25
Fwd EY7.28%
FCF(TTM)0.24
FCFY0.78%
OCF(TTM)2.84
OCFY9.18%
SpS13.98
BVpS22.43
TBVpS22.43
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.34% | ||
| ROE | 0.64% | ||
| ROCE | 1.55% | ||
| ROIC | 1.27% | ||
| ROICexc | 1.27% | ||
| ROICexgc | 1.27% | ||
| OM | 4.25% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.03% | ||
| GM | 70.43% | ||
| FCFM | 1.73% |
ROA(3y)4.63%
ROA(5y)0.4%
ROE(3y)9.45%
ROE(5y)0.3%
ROIC(3y)7.59%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)7.59%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)7.59%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)9.28%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y1.23%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y1.23%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-4.85%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y3.86%
GM growth 5Y3.36%
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.33
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.23 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 21.62 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.85 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 116.92% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 18.58% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.5 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 100.82% | ||
| Profit Quality | 167.06% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.28 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.28 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.33 |
F-Score3
WACC8.92%
ROIC/WACC0.14
Cap/Depr(3y)132.35%
Cap/Depr(5y)130.58%
Cap/Sales(3y)17.63%
Cap/Sales(5y)22.04%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-100.75%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y-14.5%
EPS Q2Q%-250%
EPS Next Y-57.85%
EPS Next 2Y106.07%
EPS Next 3Y77.2%
EPS Next 5Y31.33%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-21.93%
Revenue growth 3Y10.27%
Revenue growth 5Y2.49%
Sales Q2Q%-6.84%
Revenue Next Year-5.96%
Revenue Next 2Y4.95%
Revenue Next 3Y5.77%
Revenue Next 5Y6.22%
EBIT growth 1Y-86.85%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y-2.48%
EBIT Next Year119.84%
EBIT Next 3Y67.34%
EBIT Next 5Y30.7%
FCF growth 1Y-96.46%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-71.04%
OCF growth 3Y10.58%
OCF growth 5Y-13.73%