AMERISAFE INC (AMSF) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:AMSF - Nasdaq - US03071H1005 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to AMSF. AMSF was compared to 146 industry peers in the Insurance industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of AMSF get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. AMSF does not seem to be growing, but still is valued expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AMSF was profitable.
In the past year AMSF had a positive cash flow from operations.
AMSF had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
AMSF had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of AMSF (4.10%) is better than 83.33% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of AMSF (18.20%) is better than 86.11% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 4.17%, AMSF is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 78.47% of the companies in the same industry.
AMSF had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 4.78%. This is in line with the industry average of 4.07%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.1% | ||
| ROE | 18.2% | ||
| ROIC | 4.17% |
ROA(3y)4.74%
ROA(5y)4.96%
ROE(3y)20.1%
ROE(5y)19.3%
ROIC(3y)4.78%
ROIC(5y)4.81%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 15.84%, AMSF belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 83.33% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AMSF has declined.
The Operating Margin of AMSF (19.34%) is better than 78.47% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AMSF has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 19.34% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.84% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-3.47%
OM growth 5Y-8.09%
PM growth 3Y-5.13%
PM growth 5Y-6.1%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AMSF is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, AMSF has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, AMSF has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for AMSF has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
AMSF has no outstanding debt. Therefor its Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratios are 0 and belong to the best of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACC0.46
WACC8.99%
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AMSF have decreased strongly by -12.27% in the last year.
The earnings per share for AMSF have been decreasing by -11.34% on average. This is quite bad
The Revenue has decreased by -1.50% in the past year.
AMSF shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -3.91% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-12.27%
EPS 3Y-3.68%
EPS 5Y-11.34%
EPS Q2Q%-13.04%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-1.5%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.45%
Revenue growth 5Y-3.91%
Sales Q2Q%-9.81%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -5.63% on average over the next years.
Based on estimates for the next years, AMSF will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 2.52% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-7.94%
EPS Next 2Y-5.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-1.35%
Revenue Next 2Y2.52%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 18.02, AMSF is valued on the expensive side.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AMSF indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: AMSF is more expensive than 63.19% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.45, AMSF is valued a bit cheaper.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 19.51, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of AMSF.
70.14% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than AMSF, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
AMSF's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 21.90.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.02 | ||
| Fwd PE | 19.51 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AMSF's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of AMSF indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: AMSF is more expensive than 78.47% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 56.38 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.4 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The decent profitability rating of AMSF may justify a higher PE ratio.
AMSF's earnings are expected to decrease with -5.63% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-5.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AMSF has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.56%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.71, AMSF pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.38, AMSF pays a bit more dividend than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.56% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AMSF decreases each year by -0.15%.
AMSF has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-0.15%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
180.75% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AMSF. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
AMSF's earnings and Dividend Rate are declining. This means the current dividend is most likely not sustainable.
DP180.75%
EPS Next 2Y-5.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
43.79
+0.68 (+1.58%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners101.2%
Inst Owner Change1.25%
Ins Owners1.28%
Ins Owner Change6.14%
Market Cap834.20M
Analysts76
Price Target57.46 (31.22%)
Short Float %0.82%
Short Ratio1.27
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.56% |
Yearly Dividend4.47
Dividend Growth(5Y)-0.15%
DP180.75%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)0.68%
Min EPS beat(2)-3.53%
Max EPS beat(2)4.89%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-2.58%
Min EPS beat(4)-9.06%
Max EPS beat(4)4.89%
EPS beat(8)2
Avg EPS beat(8)-3.21%
EPS beat(12)4
Avg EPS beat(12)-0.94%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-1.34%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-6.75%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.3%
Max Revenue beat(2)-6.19%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.71%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.3%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.43%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.88%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.44%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.91%
PT rev (1m)-2.31%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-1.1%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-2.45%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.36%
EPS NY rev (3m)-3.23%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.73%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.59%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.02 | ||
| Fwd PE | 19.51 | ||
| P/S | 2.78 | ||
| P/FCF | 56.38 | ||
| P/OCF | 56.02 | ||
| P/B | 3.2 | ||
| P/tB | 3.2 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.4 |
EPS(TTM)2.43
EY5.55%
EPS(NY)2.24
Fwd EY5.12%
FCF(TTM)0.78
FCFY1.77%
OCF(TTM)0.78
OCFY1.79%
SpS15.73
BVpS13.69
TBVpS13.69
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.1% | ||
| ROE | 18.2% | ||
| ROCE | 5.19% | ||
| ROIC | 4.17% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.34% | ||
| ROICexgc | 4.93% | ||
| OM | 19.34% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.84% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 4.94% |
ROA(3y)4.74%
ROA(5y)4.96%
ROE(3y)20.1%
ROE(5y)19.3%
ROIC(3y)4.78%
ROIC(5y)4.81%
ROICexc(3y)4.99%
ROICexc(5y)5.03%
ROICexgc(3y)5.72%
ROICexgc(5y)5.69%
ROCE(3y)5.96%
ROCE(5y)5.99%
ROICexcg growth 3Y2.96%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-5.98%
ROICexc growth 3Y2.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y-6.79%
OM growth 3Y-3.47%
OM growth 5Y-8.09%
PM growth 3Y-5.13%
PM growth 5Y-6.1%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.26
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 9.81% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.03% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 25.27% | ||
| Profit Quality | 31.18% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score4
WACC8.99%
ROIC/WACC0.46
Cap/Depr(3y)92.38%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.43%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.38%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.37%
Profit Quality(3y)45.41%
Profit Quality(5y)52.83%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-12.27%
EPS 3Y-3.68%
EPS 5Y-11.34%
EPS Q2Q%-13.04%
EPS Next Y-7.94%
EPS Next 2Y-5.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-1.5%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.45%
Revenue growth 5Y-3.91%
Sales Q2Q%-9.81%
Revenue Next Year-1.35%
Revenue Next 2Y2.52%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-19.39%
EBIT growth 3Y-3.9%
EBIT growth 5Y-11.68%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-54.89%
FCF growth 3Y-13.99%
FCF growth 5Y-21.39%
OCF growth 1Y-56.96%
OCF growth 3Y-13.98%
OCF growth 5Y-21.04%