ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA (AMBP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AMBP - LU2369833749 - Common Stock
3.77 USD
+0.07 (+1.89%)
3.77 USD
0 (0%)
Taking everything into account, AMBP scores 3 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AMBP was compared to 22 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. AMBP may be in some trouble as it scores bad on both profitability and health. AMBP is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AMBP had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AMBP had a positive cash flow from operations.
In multiple years AMBP reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
AMBP had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
AMBP has a Return On Assets of -0.31%. This is in the lower half of the industry: AMBP underperforms 72.73% of its industry peers.
AMBP has a Return On Invested Capital (5.37%) which is in line with its industry peers.
AMBP had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 4.21%. This is below the industry average of 7.26%.
The 3 year average ROIC (4.21%) for AMBP is below the current ROIC(5.37%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.31% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | 5.37% |
ROA(3y)0.68%
ROA(5y)0.14%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.21%
ROIC(5y)4.92%
1.3 Margins
AMBP has a worse Operating Margin (5.22%) than 72.73% of its industry peers.
AMBP's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AMBP's Gross Margin of 13.13% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AMBP is outperformed by 86.36% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AMBP has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 5.22% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 13.13% |
OM growth 3Y-16.72%
OM growth 5Y-6.53%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-6.17%
GM growth 5Y-3.13%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AMBP has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
AMBP has about the same amout of shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
AMBP has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AMBP has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of -0.24, we must say that AMBP is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of AMBP (-0.24) is worse than 81.82% of its industry peers.
AMBP has a debt to FCF ratio of 12.79. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as AMBP would need 12.79 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 12.79, AMBP is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 12.79 | ||
| Altman-Z | -0.24 |
ROIC/WACC1.02
WACC5.25%
2.3 Liquidity
AMBP has a Current Ratio of 1.13. This is a normal value and indicates that AMBP is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AMBP's Current ratio of 1.13 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AMBP is outperformed by 68.18% of its industry peers.
AMBP has a Quick Ratio of 1.13. This is a bad value and indicates that AMBP is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of AMBP (0.86) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.13 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.86 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AMBP shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 50.00%, which is quite impressive.
Looking at the last year, AMBP shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 8.39% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, AMBP shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 7.98% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)50%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%33.33%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)8.39%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y7.98%
Sales Q2Q%15.57%
3.2 Future
AMBP is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 18.06% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 5.56% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y7.5%
EPS Next 2Y17.42%
EPS Next 3Y18.06%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year10.56%
Revenue Next 2Y6.21%
Revenue Next 3Y5.56%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
AMBP is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 17.95.
AMBP's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.41. AMBP is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.19, AMBP is valued correctly.
AMBP's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.88, AMBP is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.95 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.19 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of AMBP indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AMBP is cheaper than 77.27% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AMBP is valued cheaper than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 7.39 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates AMBP does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
AMBP's earnings are expected to grow with 18.06% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)2.39
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y17.42%
EPS Next 3Y18.06%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 11.17%, AMBP is a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.24, AMBP pays a better dividend. On top of this AMBP pays more dividend than 100.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
AMBP's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.38.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 11.17% |
5.2 History
AMBP has paid a dividend for less than 5 years, so there is no long track record yet.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
5.3 Sustainability
AMBP has negative earnings and hence a negative payout ratio. The dividend may be in danger.
DP-1552.94%
EPS Next 2Y17.42%
EPS Next 3Y18.06%
3.77
+0.07 (+1.89%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners18.16%
Inst Owner Change-0.2%
Ins Owners0.02%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap2.25B
Analysts53.33
Price Target4.47 (18.57%)
Short Float %2.3%
Short Ratio2.34
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 11.17% |
Yearly Dividend0.44
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP-1552.94%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)326.28%
Min EPS beat(2)7.02%
Max EPS beat(2)645.54%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)176.05%
Min EPS beat(4)7.02%
Max EPS beat(4)645.54%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)202.66%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)125.22%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)102.99%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)6.25%
Min Revenue beat(2)6.13%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.38%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)2.55%
Min Revenue beat(4)-4.09%
Max Revenue beat(4)6.38%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.38%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.3%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.1%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)17.15%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.43%
EPS NQ rev (3m)14.77%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.52%
EPS NY rev (3m)6.13%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.87%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.05%
Revenue NY rev (3m)3.34%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.95 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.19 | ||
| P/S | 0.43 | ||
| P/FCF | 7.39 | ||
| P/OCF | 4.96 | ||
| P/B | N/A | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6 |
EPS(TTM)0.21
EY5.57%
EPS(NY)0.25
Fwd EY6.58%
FCF(TTM)0.51
FCFY13.54%
OCF(TTM)0.76
OCFY20.15%
SpS8.75
BVpS-0.24
TBVpS-2.28
PEG (NY)2.39
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.31% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROCE | 6.8% | ||
| ROIC | 5.37% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.32% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.85% | ||
| OM | 5.22% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 13.13% | ||
| FCFM | 5.83% |
ROA(3y)0.68%
ROA(5y)0.14%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.21%
ROIC(5y)4.92%
ROICexc(3y)4.83%
ROICexc(5y)5.78%
ROICexgc(3y)7.69%
ROICexgc(5y)11.55%
ROCE(3y)5.33%
ROCE(5y)6.22%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-24.64%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-15.22%
ROICexc growth 3Y-14.96%
ROICexc growth 5Y-2.63%
OM growth 3Y-16.72%
OM growth 5Y-6.53%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-6.17%
GM growth 5Y-3.13%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.96
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 12.79 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.24 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 32.96% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.85% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.4 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 62.62% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.13 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.86 | ||
| Altman-Z | -0.24 |
F-Score6
WACC5.25%
ROIC/WACC1.02
Cap/Depr(3y)96.06%
Cap/Depr(5y)114.65%
Cap/Sales(3y)7.84%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.64%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)50%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%33.33%
EPS Next Y7.5%
EPS Next 2Y17.42%
EPS Next 3Y18.06%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)8.39%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y7.98%
Sales Q2Q%15.57%
Revenue Next Year10.56%
Revenue Next 2Y6.21%
Revenue Next 3Y5.56%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y44.44%
EBIT growth 3Y-11.25%
EBIT growth 5Y0.92%
EBIT Next Year239.9%
EBIT Next 3Y55.15%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y244.55%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y10.47%
OCF growth 1Y46.45%
OCF growth 3Y-0.59%
OCF growth 5Y3.6%