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ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA (AMBP) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:AMBP - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - LU2369833749 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

2.84  -0.03 (-1.05%)

After market: 2.85 +0.01 (+0.35%)

Fundamental Rating

3

AMBP gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 24 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. AMBP may be in some trouble as it scores bad on both profitability and health. AMBP is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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1

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

AMBP had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AMBP had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AMBP reported negative net income in multiple years.
AMBP had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
AMBP Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAMBP Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 200M -200M 400M 600M

1.2 Ratios

AMBP has a Return On Assets of -1.30%. This is in the lower half of the industry: AMBP underperforms 78.26% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of AMBP (3.86%) is worse than 73.91% of its industry peers.
AMBP had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 4.89%. This is below the industry average of 7.64%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -1.3%
ROE N/A
ROIC 3.86%
ROA(3y)-0.47%
ROA(5y)0.05%
ROE(3y)-32.59%
ROE(5y)-39.97%
ROIC(3y)4.89%
ROIC(5y)5.11%
AMBP Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAMBP Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 100 -100 200 -200 -300

1.3 Margins

Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 4.27%, AMBP is doing worse than 78.26% of the companies in the same industry.
AMBP's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AMBP has a worse Gross Margin (13.02%) than 95.65% of its industry peers.
AMBP's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 4.27%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 13.02%
OM growth 3Y-17.21%
OM growth 5Y-11.38%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-9.9%
GM growth 5Y-5.82%
AMBP Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAMBP Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 5 -5 10 15

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2

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AMBP is destroying value.
There is no outstanding debt for AMBP. This means it has a Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratio of 0 and it is amongst the best of the sector and industry.
AMBP Yearly Shares OutstandingAMBP Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 200M 400M 600M
AMBP Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAMBP Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of -0.37, we must say that AMBP is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of -0.37, AMBP is not doing good in the industry: 78.26% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AMBP is 13.46, which is on the high side as it means it would take AMBP, 13.46 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
AMBP has a Debt to FCF ratio (13.46) which is in line with its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity N/A
Debt/FCF 13.46
Altman-Z -0.37
ROIC/WACC0.78
WACC4.95%
AMBP Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAMBP Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 1B 2B 3B

2.3 Liquidity

AMBP has a Current Ratio of 1.17. This is a normal value and indicates that AMBP is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AMBP has a Current ratio of 1.17. This is in the lower half of the industry: AMBP underperforms 69.57% of its industry peers.
AMBP has a Quick Ratio of 1.17. This is a bad value and indicates that AMBP is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.88, AMBP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 43.48% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.17
Quick Ratio 0.88
AMBP Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAMBP Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 500M 1B 1.5B

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3

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 50.00% over the past year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)50%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%200%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%5.57%

3.2 Future

AMBP is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 22.57% yearly.
AMBP is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 2.44% yearly.
EPS Next Y18.22%
EPS Next 2Y22.57%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year2.44%
Revenue Next 2Y2.44%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

AMBP Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAMBP Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B
AMBP Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAMBP Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.1 0.2 0.3

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6

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 15.78, the valuation of AMBP can be described as correct.
AMBP's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
AMBP is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 29.75, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
AMBP is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.35.
AMBP's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.44, AMBP is valued a bit cheaper.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 15.78
Fwd PE 13.35
AMBP Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAMBP Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AMBP is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 73.91% of the companies are valued more expensively.
100.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AMBP, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 5.68
EV/EBITDA 8.15
AMBP Per share dataAMBP EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 2 -2 4 6 8

4.3 Compensation for Growth

AMBP's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AMBP's earnings are expected to grow with 22.57% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.87
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y22.57%
EPS Next 3YN/A

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4

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

AMBP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 13.94%, which is a nice return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.19, AMBP pays a better dividend. On top of this AMBP pays more dividend than 100.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.30, AMBP pays a better dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 13.94%

5.2 History

AMBP has paid a dividend for less than 5 years, so there is no long track record yet.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
AMBP Yearly Dividends per shareAMBP Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2022 2023 2024 0 0 0 0 0

5.3 Sustainability

AMBP has negative earnings and hence a negative payout ratio. The dividend may be in danger.
DP-366.67%
EPS Next 2Y22.57%
EPS Next 3YN/A
AMBP Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendAMBP Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 200M -200M

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ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA

NYSE:AMBP (3/3/2025, 8:12:00 PM)

After market: 2.85 +0.01 (+0.35%)

2.84

-0.03 (-1.05%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)02-27 2025-02-27/bmo
Earnings (Next)04-23 2025-04-23/bmo
Inst Owners18.09%
Inst Owner Change-2.08%
Ins Owners0.02%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap1.70B
Analysts53.85
Price Target3.56 (25.35%)
Short Float %2.02%
Short Ratio2.21
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 13.94%
Yearly Dividend0.44
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP-366.67%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)13.3%
Min EPS beat(2)11.58%
Max EPS beat(2)15.02%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)228.05%
Min EPS beat(4)-74.4%
Max EPS beat(4)959.99%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)105.09%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)74.63%
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-5.24%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.39%
Max Revenue beat(2)-4.09%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.3%
Min Revenue beat(4)-6.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.09%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-3.48%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.3%
Revenue beat(16)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(16)N/A
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-17.13%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-18.32%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-2.34%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.93%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.1%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.18%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 15.78
Fwd PE 13.35
P/S 0.35
P/FCF 5.68
P/OCF 3.37
P/B N/A
P/tB N/A
EV/EBITDA 8.15
EPS(TTM)0.18
EY6.34%
EPS(NY)0.21
Fwd EY7.49%
FCF(TTM)0.5
FCFY17.62%
OCF(TTM)0.84
OCFY29.63%
SpS8.11
BVpS-0.16
TBVpS-2.33
PEG (NY)0.87
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -1.3%
ROE N/A
ROCE 4.89%
ROIC 3.86%
ROICexc 4.26%
ROICexgc 6.43%
OM 4.27%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 13.02%
FCFM 6.17%
ROA(3y)-0.47%
ROA(5y)0.05%
ROE(3y)-32.59%
ROE(5y)-39.97%
ROIC(3y)4.89%
ROIC(5y)5.11%
ROICexc(3y)5.91%
ROICexc(5y)5.93%
ROICexgc(3y)11.28%
ROICexgc(5y)13.61%
ROCE(3y)6.19%
ROCE(5y)6.47%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-26.9%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-36.72%
ROICexc growth 3Y-13.49%
ROICexc growth 5Y-12.6%
OM growth 3Y-17.21%
OM growth 5Y-11.38%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-9.9%
GM growth 5Y-5.82%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.87
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity N/A
Debt/FCF 13.46
Debt/EBITDA 5.98
Cap/Depr 45.43%
Cap/Sales 4.21%
Interest Coverage 1.1
Cash Conversion 76.68%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 1.17
Quick Ratio 0.88
Altman-Z -0.37
F-Score4
WACC4.95%
ROIC/WACC0.78
Cap/Depr(3y)150.33%
Cap/Depr(5y)121.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)12.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)10.19%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)50%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%200%
EPS Next Y18.22%
EPS Next 2Y22.57%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%5.57%
Revenue Next Year2.44%
Revenue Next 2Y2.44%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-2.36%
EBIT growth 3Y-7.51%
EBIT growth 5Y-4.66%
EBIT Next Year218.52%
EBIT Next 3Y51.72%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y161.15%
FCF growth 3Y55.47%
FCF growth 5Y23.03%
OCF growth 1Y176.37%
OCF growth 3Y22.63%
OCF growth 5Y17.76%