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ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA (AMBP) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:AMBP - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - LU2369833749 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

2.78  +0.02 (+0.72%)

Fundamental Rating

3

Taking everything into account, AMBP scores 3 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AMBP was compared to 24 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. Both the profitability and financial health of AMBP have multiple concerns. AMBP is cheap, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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2

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year AMBP was profitable.
In the past year AMBP had a positive cash flow from operations.
In multiple years AMBP reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years AMBP had a positive operating cash flow.
AMBP Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAMBP Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 200M -200M 400M 600M

1.2 Ratios

AMBP has a worse Return On Assets (-1.30%) than 73.91% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 3.86%, AMBP is doing worse than 73.91% of the companies in the same industry.
AMBP had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 4.89%. This is below the industry average of 7.70%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -1.3%
ROE N/A
ROIC 3.86%
ROA(3y)-0.47%
ROA(5y)0.05%
ROE(3y)-32.59%
ROE(5y)-39.97%
ROIC(3y)4.89%
ROIC(5y)5.11%
AMBP Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAMBP Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 100 -100 200 -200 -300

1.3 Margins

AMBP has a worse Operating Margin (4.27%) than 78.26% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AMBP has declined.
AMBP has a Gross Margin of 13.02%. This is amonst the worse of the industry: AMBP underperforms 95.65% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AMBP has declined.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 4.27%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 13.02%
OM growth 3Y-17.21%
OM growth 5Y-11.38%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-9.9%
GM growth 5Y-5.82%
AMBP Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAMBP Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 5 -5 10 15

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2

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), AMBP is creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for AMBP remains at a similar level compared to 1 year ago.
AMBP has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AMBP has a worse debt to assets ratio.
AMBP Yearly Shares OutstandingAMBP Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 200M 400M 600M
AMBP Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAMBP Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of -0.37, we must say that AMBP is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of -0.37, AMBP is not doing good in the industry: 91.30% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
AMBP has a debt to FCF ratio of 13.46. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as AMBP would need 13.46 years to pay back of all of its debts.
AMBP has a Debt to FCF ratio (13.46) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity N/A
Debt/FCF 13.46
Altman-Z -0.37
ROIC/WACC0.8
WACC4.85%
AMBP Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAMBP Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 1B 2B 3B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 1.17 indicates that AMBP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
AMBP has a worse Current ratio (1.17) than 78.26% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.88 indicates that AMBP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of AMBP (0.88) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.17
Quick Ratio 0.88
AMBP Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAMBP Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 500M 1B 1.5B

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3

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 0.00% over the past year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 1.87% in the past year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.59% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)0%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%33.33%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.87%
Revenue growth 3Y11.72%
Revenue growth 5Y7.59%
Sales Q2Q%1.47%

3.2 Future

Based on estimates for the next years, AMBP will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 30.95% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 2.25% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y39.15%
EPS Next 2Y38.98%
EPS Next 3Y30.95%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year1.68%
Revenue Next 2Y2.14%
Revenue Next 3Y2.25%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
AMBP Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAMBP Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B
AMBP Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAMBP Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.1 0.2 0.3

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7

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

With a Price/Earnings ratio of 17.38, AMBP is valued on the expensive side.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as AMBP.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AMBP to the average of the S&P500 Index (28.28), we can say AMBP is valued slightly cheaper.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.99 indicates a reasonable valuation of AMBP.
AMBP's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AMBP is cheaper than 73.91% of the companies in the same industry.
AMBP's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 91.29.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 17.38
Fwd PE 11.99
AMBP Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAMBP Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60 80

4.2 Price Multiples

Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of AMBP indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AMBP is cheaper than 69.57% of the companies listed in the same industry.
100.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AMBP, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 5.56
EV/EBITDA 8.05
AMBP Per share dataAMBP EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 2 -2 4 6 8

4.3 Compensation for Growth

AMBP's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
AMBP's earnings are expected to grow with 30.95% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.44
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y38.98%
EPS Next 3Y30.95%

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4

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 14.34%, AMBP is a good candidate for dividend investing.
In the last 3 months the price of AMBP has falen by -24.18%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
AMBP's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.06. AMBP pays more dividend than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AMBP's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.27.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 14.34%

5.2 History

AMBP has been paying a dividend for less than 5 years, so it still needs to build a track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
AMBP Yearly Dividends per shareAMBP Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2022 2023 2024 0 0 0 0 0

5.3 Sustainability

AMBP has negative earnings and hence a negative payout ratio. The dividend may be in danger.
DP-366.67%
EPS Next 2Y38.98%
EPS Next 3Y30.95%
AMBP Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendAMBP Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 200M -200M

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ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA

NYSE:AMBP (1/30/2025, 12:09:37 PM)

2.78

+0.02 (+0.72%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)10-24 2024-10-24/bmo
Earnings (Next)02-20 2025-02-20/amc
Inst Owners17.77%
Inst Owner Change-0.48%
Ins Owners0.02%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap1.66B
Analysts53.85
Price Target4.13 (48.56%)
Short Float %3.76%
Short Ratio3.71
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 14.34%
Yearly Dividend0.44
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP-366.67%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)13.3%
Min EPS beat(2)11.58%
Max EPS beat(2)15.02%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)228.05%
Min EPS beat(4)-74.4%
Max EPS beat(4)959.99%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)105.09%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)74.63%
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-5.24%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.39%
Max Revenue beat(2)-4.09%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.3%
Min Revenue beat(4)-6.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.09%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-3.48%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.3%
Revenue beat(16)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(16)N/A
PT rev (1m)-3.08%
PT rev (3m)-1.82%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-24.38%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.23%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.41%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.08%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 17.38
Fwd PE 11.99
P/S 0.34
P/FCF 5.56
P/OCF 3.3
P/B N/A
P/tB N/A
EV/EBITDA 8.05
EPS(TTM)0.16
EY5.76%
EPS(NY)0.23
Fwd EY8.34%
FCF(TTM)0.5
FCFY18%
OCF(TTM)0.84
OCFY30.27%
SpS8.11
BVpS-0.16
TBVpS-2.33
PEG (NY)0.44
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -1.3%
ROE N/A
ROCE 4.89%
ROIC 3.86%
ROICexc 4.26%
ROICexgc 6.43%
OM 4.27%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 13.02%
FCFM 6.17%
ROA(3y)-0.47%
ROA(5y)0.05%
ROE(3y)-32.59%
ROE(5y)-39.97%
ROIC(3y)4.89%
ROIC(5y)5.11%
ROICexc(3y)5.91%
ROICexc(5y)5.93%
ROICexgc(3y)11.28%
ROICexgc(5y)13.61%
ROCE(3y)6.19%
ROCE(5y)6.47%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-26.9%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-36.72%
ROICexc growth 3Y-13.49%
ROICexc growth 5Y-12.6%
OM growth 3Y-17.21%
OM growth 5Y-11.38%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-9.9%
GM growth 5Y-5.82%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.87
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity N/A
Debt/FCF 13.46
Debt/EBITDA 5.98
Cap/Depr 45.43%
Cap/Sales 4.21%
Interest Coverage 1.1
Cash Conversion 76.68%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 1.17
Quick Ratio 0.88
Altman-Z -0.37
F-Score4
WACC4.85%
ROIC/WACC0.8
Cap/Depr(3y)150.33%
Cap/Depr(5y)121.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)12.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)10.19%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)0%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%33.33%
EPS Next Y39.15%
EPS Next 2Y38.98%
EPS Next 3Y30.95%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.87%
Revenue growth 3Y11.72%
Revenue growth 5Y7.59%
Sales Q2Q%1.47%
Revenue Next Year1.68%
Revenue Next 2Y2.14%
Revenue Next 3Y2.25%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-2.36%
EBIT growth 3Y-7.51%
EBIT growth 5Y-4.66%
EBIT Next Year218.83%
EBIT Next 3Y52.63%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y161.15%
FCF growth 3Y55.47%
FCF growth 5Y23.03%
OCF growth 1Y176.37%
OCF growth 3Y22.63%
OCF growth 5Y17.76%