ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA (AMBP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AMBP - LU2369833749 - Common Stock
3.76 USD
+0.04 (+1.08%)
3.76 USD
0 (0%)
AMBP gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 22 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. Both the profitability and financial health of AMBP have multiple concerns. AMBP has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AMBP had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AMBP had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AMBP reported negative net income in multiple years.
Each year in the past 5 years AMBP had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of -0.15%, AMBP is doing worse than 68.18% of the companies in the same industry.
AMBP has a Return On Invested Capital (5.45%) which is in line with its industry peers.
AMBP had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 4.21%. This is below the industry average of 7.62%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (5.45%) for AMBP is above the 3 year average (4.21%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.15% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | 5.45% |
ROA(3y)0.68%
ROA(5y)0.14%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.21%
ROIC(5y)4.92%
1.3 Margins
With a Operating Margin value of 5.18%, AMBP is not doing good in the industry: 72.73% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
AMBP's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of AMBP (12.96%) is worse than 90.91% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AMBP has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 5.18% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 12.96% |
OM growth 3Y-16.72%
OM growth 5Y-6.53%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-6.17%
GM growth 5Y-3.13%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), AMBP is creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for AMBP remains at a similar level compared to 1 year ago.
AMBP has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
AMBP has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of -0.21, we must say that AMBP is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
AMBP has a Altman-Z score of -0.21. This is amonst the worse of the industry: AMBP underperforms 95.45% of its industry peers.
AMBP has a debt to FCF ratio of 12.63. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as AMBP would need 12.63 years to pay back of all of its debts.
AMBP has a Debt to FCF ratio of 12.63. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AMBP outperforms 59.09% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 12.63 | ||
| Altman-Z | -0.21 |
ROIC/WACC1.04
WACC5.26%
2.3 Liquidity
AMBP has a Current Ratio of 1.13. This is a normal value and indicates that AMBP is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AMBP has a Current ratio of 1.13. This is in the lower half of the industry: AMBP underperforms 77.27% of its industry peers.
AMBP has a Quick Ratio of 1.13. This is a bad value and indicates that AMBP is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of AMBP (0.86) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.13 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.86 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AMBP shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 31.25%, which is quite impressive.
AMBP shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 10.34%.
Measured over the past years, AMBP shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 7.98% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)31.25%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%0%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10.34%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y7.98%
Sales Q2Q%8.76%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AMBP will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 16.65% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 5.86% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y10.82%
EPS Next 2Y16.13%
EPS Next 3Y16.65%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year11.88%
Revenue Next 2Y7.32%
Revenue Next 3Y5.86%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 17.90 indicates a rather expensive valuation of AMBP.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AMBP is on the same level as its industry peers.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 25.45. AMBP is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
AMBP is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.49.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AMBP is valued a bit more expensive than 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AMBP to the average of the S&P500 Index (34.46), we can say AMBP is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.9 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.49 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AMBP's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AMBP is cheaper than 77.27% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AMBP is valued cheaply inside the industry as 100.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 7.27 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.49 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
AMBP's earnings are expected to grow with 16.65% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.65
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y16.13%
EPS Next 3Y16.65%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 13.89%, AMBP is a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.59, AMBP pays a better dividend. On top of this AMBP pays more dividend than 100.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.45, AMBP pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 13.89% |
5.2 History
AMBP has been paying a dividend for less than 5 years, so it still needs to build a track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
5.3 Sustainability
The earnings of AMBP are negative and hence is the payout ratio. AMBP will probably not be able to sustain this dividend level.
DP-3300%
EPS Next 2Y16.13%
EPS Next 3Y16.65%
3.76
+0.04 (+1.08%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners18.01%
Inst Owner Change-0.6%
Ins Owners0.02%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap2.25B
Revenue(TTM)5.35B
Net Income(TTM)-8.00M
Analysts53.85
Price Target4.35 (15.69%)
Short Float %4.4%
Short Ratio4.4
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 13.89% |
Yearly Dividend0.44
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP-3300%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)9.19%
Min EPS beat(2)7.02%
Max EPS beat(2)11.36%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)175.99%
Min EPS beat(4)7.02%
Max EPS beat(4)645.54%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)202.02%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)128.72%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)99.97%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)3.59%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.06%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.13%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)3.84%
Min Revenue beat(4)1.06%
Max Revenue beat(4)6.38%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.27%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.04%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.01%
PT rev (1m)-2.77%
PT rev (3m)-2.77%
EPS NQ rev (1m)44.18%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-1.16%
EPS NY rev (1m)5.9%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.55%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)2.44%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)2.19%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.19%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.13%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.9 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.49 | ||
| P/S | 0.42 | ||
| P/FCF | 7.27 | ||
| P/OCF | 4.82 | ||
| P/B | N/A | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.49 |
EPS(TTM)0.21
EY5.59%
EPS(NY)0.24
Fwd EY6.46%
FCF(TTM)0.52
FCFY13.75%
OCF(TTM)0.78
OCFY20.74%
SpS8.94
BVpS-0.24
TBVpS-2.28
PEG (NY)1.65
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham NumberN/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.15% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROCE | 6.9% | ||
| ROIC | 5.45% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.41% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10% | ||
| OM | 5.18% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 12.96% | ||
| FCFM | 5.78% |
ROA(3y)0.68%
ROA(5y)0.14%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.21%
ROIC(5y)4.92%
ROICexc(3y)4.83%
ROICexc(5y)5.78%
ROICexgc(3y)7.69%
ROICexgc(5y)11.55%
ROCE(3y)5.33%
ROCE(5y)6.22%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-24.64%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-15.22%
ROICexc growth 3Y-14.96%
ROICexc growth 5Y-2.63%
OM growth 3Y-16.72%
OM growth 5Y-6.53%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-6.17%
GM growth 5Y-3.13%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.98
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 12.63 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.15 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 34.13% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.94% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.42 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 63.23% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.13 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.86 | ||
| Altman-Z | -0.21 |
F-Score5
WACC5.26%
ROIC/WACC1.04
Cap/Depr(3y)96.06%
Cap/Depr(5y)114.65%
Cap/Sales(3y)7.84%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.64%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)31.25%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%0%
EPS Next Y10.82%
EPS Next 2Y16.13%
EPS Next 3Y16.65%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10.34%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y7.98%
Sales Q2Q%8.76%
Revenue Next Year11.88%
Revenue Next 2Y7.32%
Revenue Next 3Y5.86%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y33.82%
EBIT growth 3Y-11.25%
EBIT growth 5Y0.92%
EBIT Next Year239.9%
EBIT Next 3Y55.15%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y2031.25%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y10.47%
OCF growth 1Y1.08%
OCF growth 3Y-0.59%
OCF growth 5Y3.6%
ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA / AMBP FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for AMBP stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AMBP.
What is the valuation status of ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA (AMBP) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA (AMBP). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA?
ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA (AMBP) has a profitability rating of 2 / 10.
What is the financial health of ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA (AMBP) stock?
The financial health rating of ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA (AMBP) is 2 / 10.
Is the dividend of ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA sustainable?
The dividend rating of ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA (AMBP) is 4 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is -3300%.