ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING SA (AMBP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AMBP - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - LU2369833749 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, AMBP scores 3 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AMBP was compared to 22 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. AMBP has a bad profitability rating. Also its financial health evaluation is rather negative. AMBP is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AMBP was profitable.
AMBP had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years AMBP reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years AMBP had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
With a Return On Assets value of -0.49%, AMBP is not doing good in the industry: 77.27% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
AMBP's Return On Invested Capital of 4.39% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AMBP is outperformed by 68.18% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for AMBP is below the industry average of 7.58%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (4.39%) for AMBP is above the 3 year average (4.21%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.49% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | 4.39% |
ROA(3y)0.68%
ROA(5y)0.14%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.21%
ROIC(5y)4.92%
1.3 Margins
The Operating Margin of AMBP (4.54%) is worse than 72.73% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AMBP has declined.
AMBP's Gross Margin of 13.16% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AMBP is outperformed by 90.91% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AMBP has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.54% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 13.16% |
OM growth 3Y-16.72%
OM growth 5Y-6.53%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-6.17%
GM growth 5Y-3.13%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AMBP is destroying value.
AMBP has about the same amout of shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
AMBP has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
AMBP has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
AMBP has an Altman-Z score of -0.28. This is a bad value and indicates that AMBP is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
AMBP's Altman-Z score of -0.28 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AMBP is outperformed by 86.36% of its industry peers.
AMBP has a debt to FCF ratio of 13.79. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as AMBP would need 13.79 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 13.79, AMBP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 59.09% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.79 | ||
| Altman-Z | -0.28 |
ROIC/WACC0.81
WACC5.41%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.13 indicates that AMBP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.13, AMBP is doing worse than 68.18% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.86 indicates that AMBP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.86, AMBP is in line with its industry, outperforming 54.55% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.13 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.86 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 58.33% over the past year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.42% in the past year.
AMBP shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 7.98% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)58.33%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%100%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.42%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y7.98%
Sales Q2Q%11.13%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 18.09% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 4.26% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y4.43%
EPS Next 2Y17.83%
EPS Next 3Y18.09%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year7.12%
Revenue Next 2Y4.69%
Revenue Next 3Y4.26%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
AMBP is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 23.74.
AMBP's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit more expensive when compared to the industry. AMBP is more expensive than 68.18% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AMBP to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.45), we can say AMBP is valued inline with the index average.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 18.05 indicates a rather expensive valuation of AMBP.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AMBP is valued a bit more expensive than 72.73% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AMBP to the average of the S&P500 Index (21.90), we can say AMBP is valued inline with the index average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.74 | ||
| Fwd PE | 18.05 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AMBP is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 63.64% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of AMBP indicates a rather cheap valuation: AMBP is cheaper than 100.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 9.53 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.92 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates AMBP does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AMBP's earnings are expected to grow with 18.09% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)5.36
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y17.83%
EPS Next 3Y18.09%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 8.87%, AMBP is a good candidate for dividend investing.
AMBP's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.06. AMBP pays more dividend than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AMBP's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.42.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 8.87% |
5.2 History
AMBP has been paying a dividend for less than 5 years, so it still needs to build a track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
5.3 Sustainability
The earnings of AMBP are negative and hence is the payout ratio. AMBP will probably not be able to sustain this dividend level.
DP-977.78%
EPS Next 2Y17.83%
EPS Next 3Y18.09%
4.51
+0.08 (+1.81%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners18.59%
Inst Owner Change1.51%
Ins Owners0.02%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap2.70B
Analysts53.33
Price Target3.78 (-16.19%)
Short Float %3.27%
Short Ratio1.93
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 8.87% |
Yearly Dividend0.44
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP-977.78%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)25.82%
Min EPS beat(2)11.58%
Max EPS beat(2)40.06%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)256.66%
Min EPS beat(4)11.58%
Max EPS beat(4)959.99%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)115.3%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)76.53%
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.15%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.09%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.79%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.84%
Min Revenue beat(4)-6.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.79%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.29%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.52%
Revenue beat(16)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(16)N/A
PT rev (1m)-0.98%
PT rev (3m)5.54%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)361.4%
EPS NY rev (1m)3.1%
EPS NY rev (3m)17.63%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.25%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.11%
Revenue NY rev (3m)4.03%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.74 | ||
| Fwd PE | 18.05 | ||
| P/S | 0.55 | ||
| P/FCF | 9.53 | ||
| P/OCF | 5.99 | ||
| P/B | N/A | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.92 |
EPS(TTM)0.19
EY4.21%
EPS(NY)0.25
Fwd EY5.54%
FCF(TTM)0.47
FCFY10.5%
OCF(TTM)0.75
OCFY16.69%
SpS8.21
BVpS-0.24
TBVpS-2.28
PEG (NY)5.36
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.49% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROCE | 5.56% | ||
| ROIC | 4.39% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.16% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.05% | ||
| OM | 4.54% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 13.16% | ||
| FCFM | 5.77% |
ROA(3y)0.68%
ROA(5y)0.14%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.21%
ROIC(5y)4.92%
ROICexc(3y)4.83%
ROICexc(5y)5.78%
ROICexgc(3y)7.69%
ROICexgc(5y)11.55%
ROCE(3y)5.33%
ROCE(5y)6.22%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-24.64%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-15.22%
ROICexc growth 3Y-14.96%
ROICexc growth 5Y-2.63%
OM growth 3Y-16.72%
OM growth 5Y-6.53%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-6.17%
GM growth 5Y-3.13%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.9
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.79 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.65 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 37.19% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.4% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.18 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 66.96% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.13 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.86 | ||
| Altman-Z | -0.28 |
F-Score6
WACC5.41%
ROIC/WACC0.81
Cap/Depr(3y)96.06%
Cap/Depr(5y)114.65%
Cap/Sales(3y)7.84%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.64%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)58.33%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%100%
EPS Next Y4.43%
EPS Next 2Y17.83%
EPS Next 3Y18.09%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.42%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y7.98%
Sales Q2Q%11.13%
Revenue Next Year7.12%
Revenue Next 2Y4.69%
Revenue Next 3Y4.26%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y22.53%
EBIT growth 3Y-11.25%
EBIT growth 5Y0.92%
EBIT Next Year235.53%
EBIT Next 3Y54.62%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y14.11%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y10.47%
OCF growth 1Y-26.95%
OCF growth 3Y-0.59%
OCF growth 5Y3.6%