AMBAC FINANCIAL GROUP INC(NYSE:AMBC) stock Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental Rating

We assign a fundamental rating of 2 out of 10 to AMBC. AMBC was compared to 143 industry peers in the Insurance industry. AMBC may be in some trouble as it scores bad on both profitability and health. AMBC has a expensive valuation and it also scores bad on growth.

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1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

AMBC had positive earnings in the past year.

AMBC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.

In multiple years AMBC reported negative net income over the last 5 years.

In multiple years AMBC reported negative operating cash flow during the last 5 years.

1.2 Ratios

The Return On Assets of AMBC (-6.24%) is worse than 92.31% of its industry peers.

The Return On Equity of AMBC (-58.73%) is worse than 93.01% of its industry peers.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
ROA	-6.24%
ROE	-58.73%
ROIC	N/A

ROA(3y)0.15%

ROA(5y)-0.62%

ROE(3y)-5.38%

ROE(5y)-11.87%

ROIC(3y)N/A

ROIC(5y)N/A

1.3 Margins

AMBC does not have Profit Margin and Operating Margin and Gross Margin available, so we won't be analyzing them here.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
OM	N/A
PM (TTM)	N/A
GM	N/A

OM growth 3YN/A

OM growth 5YN/A

PM growth 3YN/A

PM growth 5YN/A

GM growth 3YN/A

GM growth 5YN/A

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ROA

ROE

ROIC

Operating and Profit Margin

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2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

AMBC does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.

The number of shares outstanding for AMBC has been increased compared to 1 year ago.

Compared to 5 years ago, AMBC has more shares outstanding

AMBC has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.17, we must say that AMBC is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.

The Altman-Z score of AMBC (0.17) is better than 69.93% of its industry peers.

AMBC has a debt to FCF ratio of 196.85. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as AMBC would need 196.85 years to pay back of all of its debts.

Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 196.85, AMBC is doing worse than 78.32% of the companies in the same industry.

AMBC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.18. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.

AMBC has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.18. This is in the better half of the industry: AMBC outperforms 72.03% of its industry peers.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
Debt/Equity	0.18
Debt/FCF	196.85
Altman-Z	0.17

ROIC/WACCN/A

WACC3.06%

2.3 Liquidity

AMBC has a Current Ratio of 0.25. This is a bad value and indicates that AMBC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.

Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.25, AMBC is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 70.63% of the companies in the same industry.

A Quick Ratio of 0.25 indicates that AMBC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.

With a decent Quick ratio value of 0.25, AMBC is doing good in the industry, outperforming 70.63% of the companies in the same industry.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
Current Ratio	0.25
Quick Ratio	0.25

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WACC

Debt/Equity

How to determine the health of a company

Altman-Z score

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3. Growth

3.1 Past

The earnings per share for AMBC have decreased strongly by -79.90% in the last year.

The earnings per share for AMBC have been decreasing by -21.40% on average. This is quite bad

Looking at the last year, AMBC shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 45.47%.

AMBC shows a very negative growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -14.86% yearly.

EPS 1Y (TTM)-79.9%

EPS 3Y-13.99%

EPS 5Y-21.4%

EPS Q2Q%-137.5%

Revenue 1Y (TTM)45.47%

Revenue growth 3Y-4.34%

Revenue growth 5Y-14.86%

Sales Q2Q%-14.18%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -14.64% on average over the next years. This is quite bad

The Revenue is expected to decrease by -43.27% on average over the next years. This is quite bad

EPS Next Y-95.14%

EPS Next 2Y-14.64%

EPS Next 3YN/A

EPS Next 5YN/A

Revenue Next YearN/A

Revenue Next 2Y-43.27%

Revenue Next 3YN/A

Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.

When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.

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4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

AMBC is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 19.02.

AMBC's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit more expensive when compared to the industry. AMBC is more expensive than 66.43% of the companies in the same industry.

The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 28.78. AMBC is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.

AMBC is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 391.67.

80.42% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than AMBC, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.

Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.32, AMBC is valued quite expensively.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
PE	19.02
Fwd PE	391.67

4.2 Price Multiples

Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AMBC is valued a bit more expensive than 77.62% of the companies in the same industry.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
P/FCF	535.71
EV/EBITDA	N/A

4.3 Compensation for Growth

A cheap valuation may be justified as AMBC's earnings are expected to decrease with -14.64% in the coming years.

PEG (NY)N/A

PEG (5Y)N/A

EPS Next 2Y-14.64%

EPS Next 3YN/A

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5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

AMBC does not give a dividend.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
Dividend Yield	N/A

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AMBAC FINANCIAL GROUP INC

NYSE:AMBC (4/25/2025, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 7.99 0 (0%)

7.99

+0.24 (+3.1%)

Chartmill FA Rating

GICS SectorFinancials

GICS IndustryGroupInsurance

GICS IndustryInsurance

Earnings (Last)02-26 2025-02-26/amc

Earnings (Next)05-12 2025-05-12/amc

Inst Owners87.7%

Inst Owner Change-0.52%

Ins Owners3.83%

Ins Owner Change2.53%

Market Cap408.21M

Analysts85

Price Target17.34 (117.02%)

Short Float %4.98%

Short Ratio1.75

Dividend

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
Dividend Yield	N/A

Yearly DividendN/A

Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A

DPN/A

Div Incr Years0

Div Non Decr Years0

Ex-DateN/A

Surprises & Revisions

EPS beat(2)N/A

Avg EPS beat(2)N/A

Min EPS beat(2)N/A

Max EPS beat(2)N/A

EPS beat(4)N/A

Avg EPS beat(4)N/A

Min EPS beat(4)N/A

Max EPS beat(4)N/A

EPS beat(8)N/A

Avg EPS beat(8)N/A

EPS beat(12)N/A

Avg EPS beat(12)N/A

EPS beat(16)N/A

Avg EPS beat(16)N/A

Revenue beat(2)1

Avg Revenue beat(2)15.43%

Min Revenue beat(2)-16.44%

Max Revenue beat(2)47.29%

Revenue beat(4)3

Avg Revenue beat(4)26.29%

Min Revenue beat(4)-16.44%

Max Revenue beat(4)47.29%

Revenue beat(8)5

Avg Revenue beat(8)11.85%

Revenue beat(12)7

Avg Revenue beat(12)32.95%

Revenue beat(16)9

Avg Revenue beat(16)30.47%

PT rev (1m)0%

PT rev (3m)0%

EPS NQ rev (1m)0%

EPS NQ rev (3m)0%

EPS NY rev (1m)0%

EPS NY rev (3m)0%

Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%

Revenue NQ rev (3m)N/A

Revenue NY rev (1m)N/A

Revenue NY rev (3m)N/A

Valuation

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
PE	19.02
Fwd PE	391.67
P/S	1.08
P/FCF	535.71
P/OCF	535.71
P/B	0.48
P/tB	4.35
EV/EBITDA	N/A

EPS(TTM)0.42

EY5.26%

EPS(NY)0.02

Fwd EY0.26%

FCF(TTM)0.01

FCFY0.19%

OCF(TTM)0.01

OCFY0.19%

SpS7.4

BVpS16.77

TBVpS1.84

PEG (NY)N/A

PEG (5Y)N/A

Profitability

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
ROA	-6.24%
ROE	-58.73%
ROCE	N/A
ROIC	N/A
ROICexc	N/A
ROICexgc	N/A
OM	N/A
PM (TTM)	N/A
GM	N/A
FCFM	0.2%

ROA(3y)0.15%

ROA(5y)-0.62%

ROE(3y)-5.38%

ROE(5y)-11.87%

ROIC(3y)N/A

ROIC(5y)N/A

ROICexc(3y)N/A

ROICexc(5y)N/A

ROICexgc(3y)N/A

ROICexgc(5y)N/A

ROCE(3y)N/A

ROCE(5y)N/A

ROICexcg growth 3YN/A

ROICexcg growth 5YN/A

ROICexc growth 3YN/A

ROICexc growth 5YN/A

OM growth 3YN/A

OM growth 5YN/A

PM growth 3YN/A

PM growth 5YN/A

GM growth 3YN/A

GM growth 5YN/A

F-Score4

Asset Turnover0.05

Health

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
Debt/Equity	0.18
Debt/FCF	196.85
Debt/EBITDA	N/A
Cap/Depr	N/A
Cap/Sales	N/A
Interest Coverage	N/A
Cash Conversion	N/A
Profit Quality	N/A
Current Ratio	0.25
Quick Ratio	0.25
Altman-Z	0.17

F-Score4

WACC3.06%

ROIC/WACCN/A

Cap/Depr(3y)N/A

Cap/Depr(5y)N/A

Cap/Sales(3y)N/A

Cap/Sales(5y)N/A

Profit Quality(3y)N/A

Profit Quality(5y)N/A

High Growth Momentum

Growth

EPS 1Y (TTM)-79.9%

EPS 3Y-13.99%

EPS 5Y-21.4%

EPS Q2Q%-137.5%

EPS Next Y-95.14%

EPS Next 2Y-14.64%

EPS Next 3YN/A

EPS Next 5YN/A

Revenue 1Y (TTM)45.47%

Revenue growth 3Y-4.34%

Revenue growth 5Y-14.86%

Sales Q2Q%-14.18%

Revenue Next YearN/A

Revenue Next 2Y-43.27%

Revenue Next 3YN/A

Revenue Next 5YN/A

EBIT growth 1Y-134.65%

EBIT growth 3YN/A

EBIT growth 5YN/A

EBIT Next Year85.51%

EBIT Next 3YN/A

EBIT Next 5YN/A

FCF growth 1Y-97.94%

FCF growth 3YN/A

FCF growth 5YN/A

OCF growth 1Y-97.94%

OCF growth 3YN/A

OCF growth 5YN/A

AMBAC FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AMBC) Stock Fundamental Analysis

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

1.2 Ratios

1.3 Margins

More info and screens

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

2.2 Solvency

2.3 Liquidity

More info and screens

3. Growth

3.1 Past

3.2 Future

3.3 Evolution

More info and screens

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

4.2 Price Multiples

4.3 Compensation for Growth

More info and screens

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

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