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AMBAC FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AMBC) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:AMBC - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US0231398845 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

11.62  +0.22 (+1.93%)

After market: 11.62 0 (0%)

Fundamental Rating

1

We assign a fundamental rating of 1 out of 10 to AMBC. AMBC was compared to 144 industry peers in the Insurance industry. Both the profitability and financial health of AMBC have multiple concerns. AMBC has a expensive valuation and it also scores bad on growth.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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2

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year AMBC was profitable.
AMBC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AMBC reported negative net income in multiple years.
The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: AMBC reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
AMBC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAMBC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 500M -500M 1B -1B -1.5B

1.2 Ratios

AMBC has a Return On Assets of -0.22%. This is in the lower half of the industry: AMBC underperforms 78.87% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of -1.36%, AMBC is doing worse than 78.87% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of AMBC (0.64%) is worse than 63.38% of its industry peers.
AMBC had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 2.08%. This is below the industry average of 4.59%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -0.22%
ROE -1.36%
ROIC 0.64%
ROA(3y)2.15%
ROA(5y)0.3%
ROE(3y)13.29%
ROE(5y)-3.06%
ROIC(3y)2.08%
ROIC(5y)N/A
AMBC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAMBC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20 -20 40 -40

1.3 Margins

In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AMBC has declined.
AMBC has a Operating Margin of 20.00%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AMBC outperforms 80.28% of its industry peers.
AMBC's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AMBC does not have Profit Margin and Gross Margin available, so we won't be analyzing them here.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 20%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM N/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-19.5%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-39.3%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
AMBC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAMBC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 100 -100 -200

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2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

AMBC has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
AMBC has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
AMBC has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for AMBC has been reduced compared to a year ago.
AMBC Yearly Shares OutstandingAMBC Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10M 20M 30M 40M
AMBC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAMBC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 5B 10B 15B 20B

2.2 Solvency

AMBC has a debt to FCF ratio of 31.57. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as AMBC would need 31.57 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AMBC (31.57) is worse than 76.06% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.50 is on the high side and indicates that AMBC has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 2.50, AMBC is not doing good in the industry: 95.07% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.5
Debt/FCF 31.57
Altman-Z N/A
ROIC/WACC0.21
WACC2.97%
AMBC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAMBC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 5B 10B

2.3 Liquidity

Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio N/A
Quick Ratio N/A
AMBC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAMBC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 200M 400M 600M

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3. Growth

3.1 Past

The earnings per share for AMBC have decreased strongly by -85.55% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, AMBC shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 50.58% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, AMBC shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 55.51%.
AMBC shows a very negative growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -12.17% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-85.55%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y50.58%
EPS Q2Q%-123%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)55.51%
Revenue growth 3Y18.61%
Revenue growth 5Y-12.17%
Sales Q2Q%165.12%

3.2 Future

AMBC is expected to show a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will decrease by -47.29% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -23.75% on average over the next years. This is quite bad
EPS Next Y-67.79%
EPS Next 2Y-90.12%
EPS Next 3Y-47.29%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year37.77%
Revenue Next 2YN/A
Revenue Next 3Y-23.75%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
AMBC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAMBC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 200M 400M 600M
AMBC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAMBC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 10 20

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4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

With a Price/Earnings ratio of 13.51, AMBC is valued correctly.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as AMBC.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AMBC to the average of the S&P500 Index (29.63), we can say AMBC is valued rather cheaply.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 569.61, the valuation of AMBC can be described as expensive.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AMBC is valued more expensive than 82.39% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AMBC to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.68), we can say AMBC is valued expensively.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 13.51
Fwd PE 569.61
AMBC Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAMBC Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 100 200 300 400 500

4.2 Price Multiples

63.38% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than AMBC, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AMBC is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 69.72% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 4.75
EV/EBITDA 32.48
AMBC Per share dataAMBC EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30

4.3 Compensation for Growth

A cheap valuation may be justified as AMBC's earnings are expected to decrease with -47.29% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.27
EPS Next 2Y-90.12%
EPS Next 3Y-47.29%

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0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

No dividends for AMBC!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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AMBAC FINANCIAL GROUP INC

NYSE:AMBC (2/21/2025, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 11.62 0 (0%)

11.62

+0.22 (+1.93%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)11-12 2024-11-12/amc
Earnings (Next)02-26 2025-02-26/amc
Inst Owners87.7%
Inst Owner Change-97.34%
Ins Owners3.83%
Ins Owner Change0.56%
Market Cap551.25M
Analysts86.67
Price Target17.34 (49.23%)
Short Float %5.9%
Short Ratio5.13
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-311.78%
Min EPS beat(2)-641.2%
Max EPS beat(2)17.65%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)472.72%
Min EPS beat(4)-641.2%
Max EPS beat(4)1668.63%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)445.78%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)417.47%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)349.4%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)45.2%
Min Revenue beat(2)43.11%
Max Revenue beat(2)47.29%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)33.39%
Min Revenue beat(4)11.94%
Max Revenue beat(4)47.29%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)8.17%
Revenue beat(12)8
Avg Revenue beat(12)37.75%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)35.12%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)N/A
EPS NQ rev (3m)N/A
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-38.7%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 13.51
Fwd PE 569.61
P/S 1.4
P/FCF 4.75
P/OCF 4.75
P/B 0.38
P/tB 1.27
EV/EBITDA 32.48
EPS(TTM)0.86
EY7.4%
EPS(NY)0.02
Fwd EY0.18%
FCF(TTM)2.45
FCFY21.04%
OCF(TTM)2.45
OCFY21.04%
SpS8.33
BVpS30.89
TBVpS9.14
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.27
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -0.22%
ROE -1.36%
ROCE 0.92%
ROIC 0.64%
ROICexc 0.64%
ROICexgc 0.85%
OM 20%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM N/A
FCFM 29.37%
ROA(3y)2.15%
ROA(5y)0.3%
ROE(3y)13.29%
ROE(5y)-3.06%
ROIC(3y)2.08%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)2.09%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)2.38%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)2.94%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y-19.21%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y-20.56%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-19.5%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-39.3%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.04
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.5
Debt/FCF 31.57
Debt/EBITDA 29.77
Cap/Depr N/A
Cap/Sales N/A
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 94.31%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio N/A
Quick Ratio N/A
Altman-Z N/A
F-Score4
WACC2.97%
ROIC/WACC0.21
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-85.55%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y50.58%
EPS Q2Q%-123%
EPS Next Y-67.79%
EPS Next 2Y-90.12%
EPS Next 3Y-47.29%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)55.51%
Revenue growth 3Y18.61%
Revenue growth 5Y-12.17%
Sales Q2Q%165.12%
Revenue Next Year37.77%
Revenue Next 2YN/A
Revenue Next 3Y-23.75%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-42.75%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y-29.29%
EBIT Next Year-6.74%
EBIT Next 3Y-51.31%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y81.25%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y81.25%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A