ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:ALK • US0116591092

Current stock price

38.48 USD
-0.15 (-0.39%)
At close:
39 USD
+0.52 (+1.35%)
After Hours:

This ALK fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

5

1. ALK Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year ALK was profitable.
  • In the past year ALK had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • ALK had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
  • In the past 5 years ALK always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
ALK Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFALK Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1B -1B

1.2 Ratios

  • Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 0.49%, ALK is in line with its industry, outperforming 54.55% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ALK has a Return On Equity (2.43%) which is in line with its industry peers.
  • Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 2.83%, ALK is in line with its industry, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for ALK is significantly below the industry average of 20.69%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.49%
ROE 2.43%
ROIC 2.83%
ROA(3y)1.37%
ROA(5y)1.59%
ROE(3y)5.73%
ROE(5y)6.25%
ROIC(3y)4.46%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ALK Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICALK Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 -20 -40

1.3 Margins

  • ALK's Profit Margin of 0.70% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ALK outperforms 54.55% of its industry peers.
  • ALK's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 3.88%, ALK is in line with its industry, outperforming 54.55% of the companies in the same industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ALK has declined.
  • ALK has a Gross Margin of 55.09%. This is in the better half of the industry: ALK outperforms 63.64% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ALK has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 3.88%
PM (TTM) 0.7%
GM 55.09%
OM growth 3Y-16.78%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y5.31%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y3.2%
GM growth 5Y7.36%
ALK Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsALK Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 -20 40 -40 60

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2

2. ALK Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), ALK is destroying value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, ALK has less shares outstanding
  • Compared to 5 years ago, ALK has less shares outstanding
  • The debt/assets ratio for ALK is higher compared to a year ago.
ALK Yearly Shares OutstandingALK Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20M 40M 60M 80M 100M
ALK Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsALK Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5B 10B 15B 20B

2.2 Solvency

  • ALK has an Altman-Z score of 1.10. This is a bad value and indicates that ALK is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • ALK has a Altman-Z score (1.10) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.17 is on the high side and indicates that ALK has dependencies on debt financing.
  • The Debt to Equity ratio of ALK (1.17) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.17
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 1.1
ROIC/WACC0.34
WACC8.39%
ALK Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFALK Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1B 2B 3B 4B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 0.50 indicates that ALK may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • ALK has a Current ratio of 0.50. This is in the lower half of the industry: ALK underperforms 63.64% of its industry peers.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.46 indicates that ALK may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • With a Quick ratio value of 0.46, ALK perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 45.45% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.5
Quick Ratio 0.46
ALK Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesALK Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B

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6

3. ALK Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • ALK shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -48.66%.
  • ALK shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -16.71% yearly.
  • The Revenue has grown by 21.34% in the past year. This is a very strong growth!
  • The Revenue has been growing by 31.90% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth!
EPS 1Y (TTM)-48.66%
EPS 3Y-16.71%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-55.67%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)21.34%
Revenue growth 3Y13.86%
Revenue growth 5Y31.9%
Sales Q2Q%2.77%

3.2 Future

  • Based on estimates for the next years, ALK will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 58.17% on average per year.
  • The Revenue is expected to grow by 6.15% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y119.42%
EPS Next 2Y84.99%
EPS Next 3Y58.17%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year8.1%
Revenue Next 2Y6.88%
Revenue Next 3Y6.15%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
ALK Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesALK Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 5B 10B 15B
ALK Yearly EPS VS EstimatesALK Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 0 5 -5 -10

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6

4. ALK Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 15.45, the valuation of ALK can be described as correct.
  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, ALK is valued a bit cheaper than 68.18% of the companies in the same industry.
  • When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of ALK to the average of the S&P500 Index (25.50), we can say ALK is valued slightly cheaper.
  • ALK is valuated cheaply with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.04.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ALK is valued cheaply inside the industry as 86.36% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.67. ALK is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 15.45
Fwd PE 7.04
ALK Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsALK Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ALK is valued cheaply inside the industry as 86.36% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 4.72
ALK Per share dataALK EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 20 40 60 80 100

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • ALK's earnings are expected to grow with 58.17% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.13
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y84.99%
EPS Next 3Y58.17%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

0

5. ALK Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • No dividends for ALK!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%

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ALK Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

ALASKA AIR GROUP INC

NYSE:ALK (3/24/2026, 8:13:40 PM)

After market: 39 +0.52 (+1.35%)

38.48

-0.15 (-0.39%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryPassenger Airlines
Earnings (Last)01-22
Earnings (Next)04-16
Inst Owners92.11%
Inst Owner Change-0.57%
Ins Owners0.71%
Ins Owner Change15.85%
Market Cap4.41B
Revenue(TTM)14.24B
Net Income(TTM)100.00M
Analysts82.86
Price Target71.57 (85.99%)
Short Float %8.62%
Short Ratio2.51
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)120.98%
Min EPS beat(2)-7.79%
Max EPS beat(2)249.74%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)63.61%
Min EPS beat(4)-7.79%
Max EPS beat(4)249.74%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)49.07%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)36.3%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)28.77%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.99%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.28%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.71%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.95%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.19%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.17%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.5%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.43%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)7.23%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-3.01%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-33.22%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.1%
EPS NY rev (3m)-2.24%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.06%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.57%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.52%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.61%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 15.45
Fwd PE 7.04
P/S 0.31
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 3.53
P/B 1.07
P/tB 7.61
EV/EBITDA 4.72
EPS(TTM)2.49
EY6.47%
EPS(NY)5.46
Fwd EY14.2%
FCF(TTM)-2.96
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)10.9
OCFY28.31%
SpS124.21
BVpS35.92
TBVpS5.06
PEG (NY)0.13
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.86
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.49%
ROE 2.43%
ROCE 4.02%
ROIC 2.83%
ROICexc 3.35%
ROICexgc 4.81%
OM 3.88%
PM (TTM) 0.7%
GM 55.09%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)1.37%
ROA(5y)1.59%
ROE(3y)5.73%
ROE(5y)6.25%
ROIC(3y)4.46%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)5.4%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)7.56%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)6.33%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-18.1%
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3Y-19%
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-16.78%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y5.31%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y3.2%
GM growth 5Y7.36%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.7
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.17
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 3.59
Cap/Depr 199.75%
Cap/Sales 11.15%
Interest Coverage 2.48
Cash Conversion 92.66%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 0.5
Quick Ratio 0.46
Altman-Z 1.1
F-Score5
WACC8.39%
ROIC/WACC0.34
Cap/Depr(3y)250.25%
Cap/Depr(5y)245.5%
Cap/Sales(3y)12.13%
Cap/Sales(5y)11.69%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-48.66%
EPS 3Y-16.71%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-55.67%
EPS Next Y119.42%
EPS Next 2Y84.99%
EPS Next 3Y58.17%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)21.34%
Revenue growth 3Y13.86%
Revenue growth 5Y31.9%
Sales Q2Q%2.77%
Revenue Next Year8.1%
Revenue Next 2Y6.88%
Revenue Next 3Y6.15%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-39.56%
EBIT growth 3Y-5.24%
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year260.58%
EBIT Next 3Y69.46%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-285.25%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-14.69%
OCF growth 3Y-4.14%
OCF growth 5YN/A

ALASKA AIR GROUP INC / ALK Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to ALK.


Can you provide the valuation status for ALASKA AIR GROUP INC?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?

ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.


What are the PE and PB ratios of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) is 15.45 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.07.


Is the dividend of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC sustainable?

The dividend rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.