ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:ALK - US0116591092 - Common Stock
41.26 USD
+0.99 (+2.46%)
41.69 USD
+0.43 (+1.04%)
Overall ALK gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated ALK against 22 industry peers in the Passenger Airlines industry. There are concerns on the financial health of ALK while its profitability can be described as average. ALK is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ALK had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year ALK had a positive cash flow from operations.
ALK had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Of the past 5 years ALK 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
ALK has a Return On Assets (0.75%) which is in line with its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of ALK (3.72%) is better than 63.64% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of ALK (3.28%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for ALK is significantly below the industry average of 13.76%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.75% | ||
| ROE | 3.72% | ||
| ROIC | 3.28% |
ROA(3y)1.34%
ROA(5y)-0.4%
ROE(3y)5.42%
ROE(5y)-3.09%
ROIC(3y)5.24%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
ALK has a Profit Margin (1.06%) which is in line with its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ALK has declined.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 4.26%, ALK is in line with its industry, outperforming 59.09% of the companies in the same industry.
ALK's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
ALK's Gross Margin of 55.33% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ALK outperforms 54.55% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ALK has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.26% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.06% | ||
| GM | 55.33% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-9.13%
PM growth 3Y-24.24%
PM growth 5Y-17.41%
GM growth 3Y3.86%
GM growth 5Y0.81%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
ALK has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for ALK has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
ALK has about the same amout of shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for ALK is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.14, we must say that ALK is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.14, ALK perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 59.09% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.12 is on the high side and indicates that ALK has dependencies on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.12, ALK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.12 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.14 |
ROIC/WACC0.43
WACC7.67%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.52 indicates that ALK may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
ALK has a Current ratio (0.52) which is in line with its industry peers.
ALK has a Quick Ratio of 0.52. This is a bad value and indicates that ALK is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of ALK (0.49) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
ALK shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -27.51%.
The Earnings Per Share has been decreasing by -5.48% on average over the past years.
The Revenue has grown by 31.50% in the past year. This is a very strong growth!
Measured over the past years, ALK shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 5.97% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-27.51%
EPS 3Y-6.46%
EPS 5Y-5.48%
EPS Q2Q%-53.33%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)31.5%
Revenue growth 3Y23.86%
Revenue growth 5Y5.97%
Sales Q2Q%22.59%
3.2 Future
ALK is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 18.51% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 11.69% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y-49.45%
EPS Next 2Y5.55%
EPS Next 3Y18.51%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year22.03%
Revenue Next 2Y14.4%
Revenue Next 3Y11.69%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 13.62, the valuation of ALK can be described as correct.
ALK's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. ALK is cheaper than 68.18% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 25.98, ALK is valued a bit cheaper.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.64, the valuation of ALK can be described as very cheap.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ALK is valued cheaply inside the industry as 81.82% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 35.79. ALK is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.62 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.64 |
4.2 Price Multiples
95.45% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ALK, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.36 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
A more expensive valuation may be justified as ALK's earnings are expected to grow with 18.51% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y5.55%
EPS Next 3Y18.51%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for ALK!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
41.26
+0.99 (+2.46%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryPassenger Airlines
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners91.09%
Inst Owner Change-1.18%
Ins Owners0.57%
Ins Owner Change-1.5%
Market Cap4.76B
Revenue(TTM)14.14B
Net Income(TTM)150.00M
Analysts82
Price Target67.79 (64.3%)
Short Float %7.01%
Short Ratio2.32
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)3.23%
Min EPS beat(2)-7.79%
Max EPS beat(2)14.26%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)30.21%
Min EPS beat(4)-7.79%
Max EPS beat(4)116.17%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)25.85%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)15.26%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)13.56%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.26%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.71%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.19%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.15%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.9%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.4%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.57%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.23%
PT rev (1m)-1.98%
PT rev (3m)3.54%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-56.99%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-63.46%
EPS NY rev (1m)-18.31%
EPS NY rev (3m)-27.48%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.43%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.7%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.14%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.1%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.62 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.64 | ||
| P/S | 0.34 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 3.56 | ||
| P/B | 1.18 | ||
| P/tB | 9.97 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.36 |
EPS(TTM)3.03
EY7.34%
EPS(NY)5.4
Fwd EY13.1%
FCF(TTM)-0.47
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)11.6
OCFY28.12%
SpS122.63
BVpS34.94
TBVpS4.14
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number48.81
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.75% | ||
| ROE | 3.72% | ||
| ROCE | 4.52% | ||
| ROIC | 3.28% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.95% | ||
| ROICexgc | 5.82% | ||
| OM | 4.26% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.06% | ||
| GM | 55.33% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)1.34%
ROA(5y)-0.4%
ROE(3y)5.42%
ROE(5y)-3.09%
ROIC(3y)5.24%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)6.57%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)9.14%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)7.22%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y-7.41%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y-9.28%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-9.13%
PM growth 3Y-24.24%
PM growth 5Y-17.41%
GM growth 3Y3.86%
GM growth 5Y0.81%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.71
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.12 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.26 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 177.1% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 9.84% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.77 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 96.33% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.14 |
F-Score6
WACC7.67%
ROIC/WACC0.43
Cap/Depr(3y)317.88%
Cap/Depr(5y)215.36%
Cap/Sales(3y)14.19%
Cap/Sales(5y)10.61%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-27.51%
EPS 3Y-6.46%
EPS 5Y-5.48%
EPS Q2Q%-53.33%
EPS Next Y-49.45%
EPS Next 2Y5.55%
EPS Next 3Y18.51%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)31.5%
Revenue growth 3Y23.86%
Revenue growth 5Y5.97%
Sales Q2Q%22.59%
Revenue Next Year22.03%
Revenue Next 2Y14.4%
Revenue Next 3Y11.69%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-26.46%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y-3.7%
EBIT Next Year94.04%
EBIT Next 3Y43.4%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y91.04%
FCF growth 3Y-37.18%
FCF growth 5Y-29.16%
OCF growth 1Y20.32%
OCF growth 3Y12.43%
OCF growth 5Y-3.19%
ALASKA AIR GROUP INC / ALK FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to ALK.
What is the valuation status of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?
ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for ALK stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) is 13.62 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.18.
Can you provide the dividend sustainability for ALK stock?
The dividend rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.