ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:ALK • US0116591092

Current stock price

38.55 USD
-0.56 (-1.43%)
At close:
38.59 USD
+0.04 (+0.1%)
After Hours:

This ALK fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

5

1. ALK Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year ALK was profitable.
  • ALK had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • ALK had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
  • ALK had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
ALK Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFALK Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1B -1B

1.2 Ratios

  • With a Return On Assets value of 0.36%, ALK perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 54.55% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ALK has a better Return On Equity (1.96%) than 63.64% of its industry peers.
  • ALK has a worse Return On Invested Capital (2.21%) than 63.64% of its industry peers.
  • Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for ALK is significantly below the industry average of 28.18%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.36%
ROE 1.96%
ROIC 2.21%
ROA(3y)1.37%
ROA(5y)1.59%
ROE(3y)5.73%
ROE(5y)6.25%
ROIC(3y)4.46%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ALK Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICALK Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 -20 -40

1.3 Margins

  • The Profit Margin of ALK (0.51%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • ALK's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • ALK's Operating Margin of 2.88% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ALK outperforms 40.91% of its industry peers.
  • ALK's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
  • ALK has a Gross Margin (54.44%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • ALK's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 2.88%
PM (TTM) 0.51%
GM 54.44%
OM growth 3Y-16.78%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y5.31%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y3.2%
GM growth 5Y7.36%
ALK Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsALK Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 -20 40 -40 60

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2

2. ALK Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), ALK is destroying value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for ALK has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
  • The number of shares outstanding for ALK has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, ALK has a worse debt to assets ratio.
ALK Yearly Shares OutstandingALK Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20M 40M 60M 80M 100M
ALK Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsALK Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5B 10B 15B 20B

2.2 Solvency

  • Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.03, we must say that ALK is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.03, ALK is in line with its industry, outperforming 54.55% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.29 is on the high side and indicates that ALK has dependencies on debt financing.
  • ALK's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.29 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ALK outperforms 63.64% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.29
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 1.03
ROIC/WACC0.28
WACC7.97%
ALK Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFALK Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1B 2B 3B 4B

2.3 Liquidity

  • ALK has a Current Ratio of 0.43. This is a bad value and indicates that ALK is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • With a Current ratio value of 0.43, ALK is not doing good in the industry: 72.73% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.39 indicates that ALK may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • With a Quick ratio value of 0.39, ALK is not doing good in the industry: 68.18% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.43
Quick Ratio 0.39
ALK Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesALK Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B

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5

3. ALK Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • ALK shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -68.40%.
  • Measured over the past years, ALK shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -16.71% on average per year.
  • ALK shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 13.94%.
  • ALK shows a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 31.90% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-68.4%
EPS 3Y-16.71%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-118.18%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)13.94%
Revenue growth 3Y13.86%
Revenue growth 5Y31.9%
Sales Q2Q%5.2%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 56.86% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
  • ALK is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 7.19% yearly.
EPS Next Y50.32%
EPS Next 2Y76.43%
EPS Next 3Y56.86%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year10.01%
Revenue Next 2Y7.53%
Revenue Next 3Y6.86%
Revenue Next 5Y7.19%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
ALK Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesALK Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 5B 10B 15B 20B
ALK Yearly EPS VS EstimatesALK Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 0 5 -5 -10

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5

4. ALK Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 24.40, the valuation of ALK can be described as rather expensive.
  • ALK's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.77, ALK is valued at the same level.
  • The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 4.97, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of ALK.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ALK indicates a rather cheap valuation: ALK is cheaper than 95.45% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.75, ALK is valued rather cheaply.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 24.4
Fwd PE 4.97
ALK Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsALK Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • ALK's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 5.51
ALK Per share dataALK EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 20 40 60 80 100

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • A more expensive valuation may be justified as ALK's earnings are expected to grow with 56.86% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.48
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y76.43%
EPS Next 3Y56.86%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

0

5. ALK Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • No dividends for ALK!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%

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ALK Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

ALASKA AIR GROUP INC

NYSE:ALK (5/1/2026, 4:18:36 PM)

After market: 38.59 +0.04 (+0.1%)

38.55

-0.56 (-1.43%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryPassenger Airlines
Industry Strength16.15
Industry Growth9.32
Earnings (Last)04-20
Earnings (Next)07-21
Inst Owners93.4%
Inst Owner Change-0.4%
Ins Owners0.72%
Ins Owner Change15.77%
Market Cap4.37B
Revenue(TTM)14.40B
Net Income(TTM)73.00M
Analysts82.73
Price Target59.64 (54.71%)
Short Float %11.92%
Short Ratio2.84
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)113.05%
Min EPS beat(2)-23.64%
Max EPS beat(2)249.74%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)58.14%
Min EPS beat(4)-23.64%
Max EPS beat(4)249.74%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)44.5%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)36.68%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)26.51%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.25%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.28%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.23%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.76%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.28%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.19%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.44%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.52%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.52%
PT rev (1m)-12.4%
PT rev (3m)-10.7%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-65.65%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-72.98%
EPS NY rev (1m)-31.49%
EPS NY rev (3m)-33.07%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.12%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)2.43%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.77%
Revenue NY rev (3m)2.23%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 24.4
Fwd PE 4.97
P/S 0.3
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 3.61
P/B 1.17
P/tB 21.1
EV/EBITDA 5.51
EPS(TTM)1.58
EY4.1%
EPS(NY)7.75
Fwd EY20.11%
FCF(TTM)-4.21
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)10.69
OCFY27.72%
SpS127.1
BVpS32.93
TBVpS1.83
PEG (NY)0.48
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number34.2136 (-11.25%)
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.36%
ROE 1.96%
ROCE 3.13%
ROIC 2.21%
ROICexc 2.55%
ROICexgc 3.68%
OM 2.88%
PM (TTM) 0.51%
GM 54.44%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)1.37%
ROA(5y)1.59%
ROE(3y)5.73%
ROE(5y)6.25%
ROIC(3y)4.46%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)5.4%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)7.56%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)6.33%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-18.1%
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3Y-19%
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-16.78%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y5.31%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y3.2%
GM growth 5Y7.36%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.71
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.29
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 3.99
Cap/Depr 212.33%
Cap/Sales 11.72%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 100.08%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 0.43
Quick Ratio 0.39
Altman-Z 1.03
F-Score4
WACC7.97%
ROIC/WACC0.28
Cap/Depr(3y)250.25%
Cap/Depr(5y)245.5%
Cap/Sales(3y)12.13%
Cap/Sales(5y)11.69%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-68.4%
EPS 3Y-16.71%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-118.18%
EPS Next Y50.32%
EPS Next 2Y76.43%
EPS Next 3Y56.86%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)13.94%
Revenue growth 3Y13.86%
Revenue growth 5Y31.9%
Sales Q2Q%5.2%
Revenue Next Year10.01%
Revenue Next 2Y7.53%
Revenue Next 3Y6.86%
Revenue Next 5Y7.19%
EBIT growth 1Y-55.9%
EBIT growth 3Y-5.24%
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year201.26%
EBIT Next 3Y68.62%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-41.12%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y8.13%
OCF growth 3Y-4.14%
OCF growth 5YN/A

ALASKA AIR GROUP INC / ALK Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to ALK.


Can you provide the valuation status for ALASKA AIR GROUP INC?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


Can you provide the profitability details for ALASKA AIR GROUP INC?

ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.


Can you provide the financial health for ALK stock?

The financial health rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) is 2 / 10.


Is the dividend of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC sustainable?

The dividend rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.