ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:ALK - US0116591092 - Common Stock
37.82 USD
-0.8 (-2.07%)
38.29 USD
+0.47 (+1.24%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to ALK. ALK was compared to 21 industry peers in the Passenger Airlines industry. While ALK is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. ALK is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year ALK was profitable.
ALK had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years ALK 4 years were profitable.
Of the past 5 years ALK 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
ALK has a Return On Assets (0.75%) which is in line with its industry peers.
ALK's Return On Equity of 3.72% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ALK outperforms 61.90% of its industry peers.
ALK has a Return On Invested Capital (3.28%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for ALK is significantly below the industry average of 13.75%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.75% | ||
| ROE | 3.72% | ||
| ROIC | 3.28% |
ROA(3y)1.34%
ROA(5y)-0.4%
ROE(3y)5.42%
ROE(5y)-3.09%
ROIC(3y)5.24%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
ALK's Profit Margin of 1.06% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ALK outperforms 57.14% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ALK has declined.
ALK has a Operating Margin (4.26%) which is in line with its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ALK has declined.
With a Gross Margin value of 55.33%, ALK perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 52.38% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ALK has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.26% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.06% | ||
| GM | 55.33% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-9.13%
PM growth 3Y-24.24%
PM growth 5Y-17.41%
GM growth 3Y3.86%
GM growth 5Y0.81%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
ALK has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for ALK has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
ALK has about the same amout of shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
ALK has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.13, we must say that ALK is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
ALK's Altman-Z score of 1.13 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ALK outperforms 61.90% of its industry peers.
ALK has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.12. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
ALK has a better Debt to Equity ratio (1.12) than 61.90% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.12 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.13 |
ROIC/WACC0.43
WACC7.68%
2.3 Liquidity
ALK has a Current Ratio of 0.52. This is a bad value and indicates that ALK is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ALK has a worse Current ratio (0.52) than 61.90% of its industry peers.
ALK has a Quick Ratio of 0.52. This is a bad value and indicates that ALK is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of ALK (0.49) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for ALK have decreased strongly by -27.51% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, ALK shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -5.48% on average per year.
ALK shows a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 31.50%.
Measured over the past years, ALK shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 5.97% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-27.51%
EPS 3Y-6.46%
EPS 5Y-5.48%
EPS Q2Q%-53.33%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)31.5%
Revenue growth 3Y23.86%
Revenue growth 5Y5.97%
Sales Q2Q%22.59%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 18.51% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
ALK is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 11.69% yearly.
EPS Next Y-49.45%
EPS Next 2Y5.55%
EPS Next 3Y18.51%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year22.03%
Revenue Next 2Y14.4%
Revenue Next 3Y11.69%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
ALK is valuated correctly with a Price/Earnings ratio of 12.48.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of ALK indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: ALK is cheaper than 66.67% of the companies listed in the same industry.
ALK's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 25.07.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.00 indicates a rather cheap valuation of ALK.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ALK is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 76.19% of the companies are valued more expensively.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ALK to the average of the S&P500 Index (34.08), we can say ALK is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.48 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ALK is valued cheaply inside the industry as 90.48% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.14 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
ALK's earnings are expected to grow with 18.51% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y5.55%
EPS Next 3Y18.51%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for ALK!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
37.82
-0.8 (-2.07%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryPassenger Airlines
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners91.09%
Inst Owner Change-0.73%
Ins Owners0.57%
Ins Owner Change-2.98%
Market Cap4.36B
Revenue(TTM)14.14B
Net Income(TTM)150.00M
Analysts82
Price Target65.71 (73.74%)
Short Float %7.01%
Short Ratio2.32
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)3.23%
Min EPS beat(2)-7.79%
Max EPS beat(2)14.26%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)30.21%
Min EPS beat(4)-7.79%
Max EPS beat(4)116.17%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)25.85%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)15.26%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)13.56%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.26%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.71%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.19%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.15%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.9%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.4%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.57%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.23%
PT rev (1m)-4.99%
PT rev (3m)0.36%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-57.33%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-63.82%
EPS NY rev (1m)-24.88%
EPS NY rev (3m)-34.31%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.59%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.78%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.03%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.31%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.48 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7 | ||
| P/S | 0.31 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 3.26 | ||
| P/B | 1.08 | ||
| P/tB | 9.14 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.14 |
EPS(TTM)3.03
EY8.01%
EPS(NY)5.4
Fwd EY14.29%
FCF(TTM)-0.47
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)11.6
OCFY30.68%
SpS122.63
BVpS34.94
TBVpS4.14
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number48.81
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.75% | ||
| ROE | 3.72% | ||
| ROCE | 4.52% | ||
| ROIC | 3.28% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.95% | ||
| ROICexgc | 5.82% | ||
| OM | 4.26% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.06% | ||
| GM | 55.33% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)1.34%
ROA(5y)-0.4%
ROE(3y)5.42%
ROE(5y)-3.09%
ROIC(3y)5.24%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)6.57%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)9.14%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)7.22%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y-7.41%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y-9.28%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-9.13%
PM growth 3Y-24.24%
PM growth 5Y-17.41%
GM growth 3Y3.86%
GM growth 5Y0.81%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.71
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.12 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.26 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 177.1% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 9.84% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.77 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 96.33% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.13 |
F-Score6
WACC7.68%
ROIC/WACC0.43
Cap/Depr(3y)317.88%
Cap/Depr(5y)215.36%
Cap/Sales(3y)14.19%
Cap/Sales(5y)10.61%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-27.51%
EPS 3Y-6.46%
EPS 5Y-5.48%
EPS Q2Q%-53.33%
EPS Next Y-49.45%
EPS Next 2Y5.55%
EPS Next 3Y18.51%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)31.5%
Revenue growth 3Y23.86%
Revenue growth 5Y5.97%
Sales Q2Q%22.59%
Revenue Next Year22.03%
Revenue Next 2Y14.4%
Revenue Next 3Y11.69%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-26.46%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y-3.7%
EBIT Next Year94.04%
EBIT Next 3Y43.4%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y91.04%
FCF growth 3Y-37.18%
FCF growth 5Y-29.16%
OCF growth 1Y20.32%
OCF growth 3Y12.43%
OCF growth 5Y-3.19%
ALASKA AIR GROUP INC / ALK FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to ALK.
What is the valuation status of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?
ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for ALK stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) is 12.48 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.08.
Can you provide the dividend sustainability for ALK stock?
The dividend rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.