ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:ALK - US0116591092 - Common Stock
52 USD
+0.13 (+0.25%)
52 USD
0 (0%)
Taking everything into account, ALK scores 3 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. ALK was compared to 21 industry peers in the Passenger Airlines industry. ALK has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. ALK is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ALK had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year ALK had a positive cash flow from operations.
ALK had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
ALK had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
ALK has a Return On Assets (0.75%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
With a decent Return On Equity value of 3.72%, ALK is doing good in the industry, outperforming 61.90% of the companies in the same industry.
ALK has a Return On Invested Capital of 3.28%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ALK outperforms 57.14% of its industry peers.
ALK had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 5.24%. This is below the industry average of 8.38%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.75% | ||
| ROE | 3.72% | ||
| ROIC | 3.28% |
ROA(3y)1.34%
ROA(5y)-0.4%
ROE(3y)5.42%
ROE(5y)-3.09%
ROIC(3y)5.24%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
With a Profit Margin value of 1.06%, ALK perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 57.14% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ALK has declined.
The Operating Margin of ALK (4.26%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
ALK's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With a Gross Margin value of 55.33%, ALK perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 52.38% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ALK has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.26% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.06% | ||
| GM | 55.33% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-9.13%
PM growth 3Y-24.24%
PM growth 5Y-17.41%
GM growth 3Y3.86%
GM growth 5Y0.81%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
ALK has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
ALK has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for ALK remains at a similar level compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, ALK has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
ALK has an Altman-Z score of 1.19. This is a bad value and indicates that ALK is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
ALK has a Altman-Z score (1.19) which is in line with its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.12 is on the high side and indicates that ALK has dependencies on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of ALK (1.12) is better than 61.90% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.12 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.19 |
ROIC/WACC0.4
WACC8.24%
2.3 Liquidity
ALK has a Current Ratio of 0.52. This is a bad value and indicates that ALK is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ALK has a Current ratio (0.52) which is in line with its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.49 indicates that ALK may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.49, ALK is in line with its industry, outperforming 47.62% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for ALK have decreased strongly by -27.51% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, ALK shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -5.48% on average per year.
ALK shows a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 31.50%.
Measured over the past years, ALK shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 5.97% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-27.51%
EPS 3Y-6.46%
EPS 5Y-5.48%
EPS Q2Q%-53.33%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)31.5%
Revenue growth 3Y23.86%
Revenue growth 5Y5.97%
Sales Q2Q%22.59%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 19.92% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
Based on estimates for the next years, ALK will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 11.66% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-51.66%
EPS Next 2Y7.34%
EPS Next 3Y19.92%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year22.08%
Revenue Next 2Y14.44%
Revenue Next 3Y11.66%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 17.16, the valuation of ALK can be described as rather expensive.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, ALK is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 66.67% of the companies are valued more expensively.
ALK is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.26, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 9.30, which indicates a very decent valuation of ALK.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ALK indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: ALK is cheaper than 76.19% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.68, ALK is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.16 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.3 |
4.2 Price Multiples
71.43% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ALK, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.26 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
A more expensive valuation may be justified as ALK's earnings are expected to grow with 19.92% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y7.34%
EPS Next 3Y19.92%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
ALK does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
52
+0.13 (+0.25%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryPassenger Airlines
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners91.84%
Inst Owner Change-1.16%
Ins Owners0.57%
Ins Owner Change-1.19%
Market Cap6.03B
Revenue(TTM)14.14B
Net Income(TTM)150.00M
Analysts82
Price Target66.74 (28.35%)
Short Float %6.79%
Short Ratio2.1
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)3.23%
Min EPS beat(2)-7.79%
Max EPS beat(2)14.26%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)30.21%
Min EPS beat(4)-7.79%
Max EPS beat(4)116.17%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)25.85%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)15.26%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)13.56%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.26%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.71%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.19%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.15%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.9%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.4%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.57%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.23%
PT rev (1m)1.57%
PT rev (3m)-4.05%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-44.33%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-79.39%
EPS NY rev (1m)-4.36%
EPS NY rev (3m)-30.64%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.41%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.21%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.04%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.13%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.16 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.3 | ||
| P/S | 0.43 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 4.51 | ||
| P/B | 1.5 | ||
| P/tB | 12.64 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.26 |
EPS(TTM)3.03
EY5.83%
EPS(NY)5.59
Fwd EY10.75%
FCF(TTM)-0.47
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)11.54
OCFY22.18%
SpS121.92
BVpS34.74
TBVpS4.11
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number48.66
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.75% | ||
| ROE | 3.72% | ||
| ROCE | 4.52% | ||
| ROIC | 3.28% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.95% | ||
| ROICexgc | 5.82% | ||
| OM | 4.26% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.06% | ||
| GM | 55.33% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)1.34%
ROA(5y)-0.4%
ROE(3y)5.42%
ROE(5y)-3.09%
ROIC(3y)5.24%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)6.57%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)9.14%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)7.22%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y-7.41%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y-9.28%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-9.13%
PM growth 3Y-24.24%
PM growth 5Y-17.41%
GM growth 3Y3.86%
GM growth 5Y0.81%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.71
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.12 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.26 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 177.1% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 9.84% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.77 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 96.33% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.19 |
F-Score6
WACC8.24%
ROIC/WACC0.4
Cap/Depr(3y)317.88%
Cap/Depr(5y)215.36%
Cap/Sales(3y)14.19%
Cap/Sales(5y)10.61%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-27.51%
EPS 3Y-6.46%
EPS 5Y-5.48%
EPS Q2Q%-53.33%
EPS Next Y-51.66%
EPS Next 2Y7.34%
EPS Next 3Y19.92%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)31.5%
Revenue growth 3Y23.86%
Revenue growth 5Y5.97%
Sales Q2Q%22.59%
Revenue Next Year22.08%
Revenue Next 2Y14.44%
Revenue Next 3Y11.66%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-26.46%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y-3.7%
EBIT Next Year65.29%
EBIT Next 3Y40.85%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y91.04%
FCF growth 3Y-37.18%
FCF growth 5Y-29.16%
OCF growth 1Y20.32%
OCF growth 3Y12.43%
OCF growth 5Y-3.19%
ALASKA AIR GROUP INC / ALK FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to ALK.
What is the valuation status of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?
ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for ALK stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) is 17.16 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.5.
Can you provide the dividend sustainability for ALK stock?
The dividend rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.