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ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) Stock Fundamental Analysis

USA - NYSE:ALK - US0116591092 - Common Stock

57.6 USD
-1.53 (-2.59%)
Last: 9/16/2025, 8:04:00 PM
57.85 USD
+0.25 (+0.43%)
After Hours: 9/16/2025, 8:04:00 PM
Fundamental Rating

4

We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to ALK. ALK was compared to 21 industry peers in the Passenger Airlines industry. While ALK is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. ALK has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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4

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

ALK had positive earnings in the past year.
ALK had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
ALK had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Of the past 5 years ALK 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
ALK Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFALK Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 1B -1B

1.2 Ratios

ALK has a better Return On Assets (1.57%) than 66.67% of its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Equity value of 7.94%, ALK is doing good in the industry, outperforming 66.67% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of ALK (4.44%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for ALK is significantly below the industry average of 14.49%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.57%
ROE 7.94%
ROIC 4.44%
ROA(3y)1.34%
ROA(5y)-0.4%
ROE(3y)5.42%
ROE(5y)-3.09%
ROIC(3y)5.24%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ALK Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICALK Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 20 -20 -40

1.3 Margins

Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 2.33%, ALK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 66.67% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ALK has declined.
With a Operating Margin value of 5.99%, ALK perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 57.14% of the companies in the same industry.
ALK's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 56.32%, ALK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 61.90% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ALK has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 5.99%
PM (TTM) 2.33%
GM 56.32%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-9.13%
PM growth 3Y-24.24%
PM growth 5Y-17.41%
GM growth 3Y3.86%
GM growth 5Y0.81%
ALK Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsALK Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 20 -20 40 -40 60

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2

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

ALK has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
ALK has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
ALK has about the same amout of shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, ALK has a worse debt to assets ratio.
ALK Yearly Shares OutstandingALK Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20M 40M 60M 80M 100M
ALK Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsALK Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5B 10B 15B

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.22, we must say that ALK is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.22, ALK perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 57.14% of the companies in the same industry.
ALK has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.14. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a decent Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.14, ALK is doing good in the industry, outperforming 61.90% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.14
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 1.22
ROIC/WACC0.53
WACC8.44%
ALK Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFALK Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 1B 2B 3B 4B

2.3 Liquidity

ALK has a Current Ratio of 0.52. This is a bad value and indicates that ALK is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ALK has a Current ratio of 0.52. This is in the lower half of the industry: ALK underperforms 66.67% of its industry peers.
ALK has a Quick Ratio of 0.52. This is a bad value and indicates that ALK is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ALK has a Quick ratio (0.49) which is in line with its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.52
Quick Ratio 0.49
ALK Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesALK Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2B 4B 6B

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6

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 12.50% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been decreasing by -5.48% on average over the past years.
Looking at the last year, ALK shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 27.81%.
ALK shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 5.97% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)12.5%
EPS 3Y-6.46%
EPS 5Y-5.48%
EPS Q2Q%-30.2%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)27.81%
Revenue growth 3Y23.86%
Revenue growth 5Y5.97%
Sales Q2Q%27.86%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 20.60% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
The Revenue is expected to grow by 11.53% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y-30.3%
EPS Next 2Y13.11%
EPS Next 3Y20.6%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year21.93%
Revenue Next 2Y14.25%
Revenue Next 3Y11.53%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
ALK Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesALK Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 5B 10B 15B
ALK Yearly EPS VS EstimatesALK Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 0 5 -5 -10

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4

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

With a Price/Earnings ratio of 13.62, ALK is valued correctly.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, ALK is valued a bit cheaper than 66.67% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of ALK to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.20), we can say ALK is valued slightly cheaper.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.28 indicates a reasonable valuation of ALK.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ALK is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 66.67% of the companies are valued more expensively.
ALK is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.71, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 13.62
Fwd PE 9.28
ALK Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsALK Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ALK is valued a bit cheaper than 66.67% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 5.44
ALK Per share dataALK EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 20 40 60 80 100

4.3 Compensation for Growth

ALK's earnings are expected to grow with 20.60% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y13.11%
EPS Next 3Y20.6%

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0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

No dividends for ALK!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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ALASKA AIR GROUP INC

NYSE:ALK (9/16/2025, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 57.85 +0.25 (+0.43%)

57.6

-1.53 (-2.59%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryPassenger Airlines
Earnings (Last)07-23 2025-07-23/amc
Earnings (Next)10-29 2025-10-29/bmo
Inst Owners99.73%
Inst Owner Change-6.36%
Ins Owners0.58%
Ins Owner Change-0.37%
Market Cap6.64B
Analysts80
Price Target69.56 (20.76%)
Short Float %4.93%
Short Ratio2.16
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)6.24%
Min EPS beat(2)-1.79%
Max EPS beat(2)14.26%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)32.84%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.79%
Max EPS beat(4)116.17%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)26.47%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)16.3%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)14.83%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.91%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.19%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.5%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.9%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.58%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.57%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.16%
PT rev (1m)6.23%
PT rev (3m)5.49%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-6.77%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-33.19%
EPS NY rev (1m)-9.42%
EPS NY rev (3m)-15.79%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.21%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.8%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.22%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.15%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 13.62
Fwd PE 9.28
P/S 0.49
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 4.65
P/B 1.68
P/tB 17.76
EV/EBITDA 5.44
EPS(TTM)4.23
EY7.34%
EPS(NY)6.2
Fwd EY10.77%
FCF(TTM)-0.07
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)12.38
OCFY21.48%
SpS116.62
BVpS34.19
TBVpS3.24
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.57%
ROE 7.94%
ROCE 6.12%
ROIC 4.44%
ROICexc 5.3%
ROICexgc 7.82%
OM 5.99%
PM (TTM) 2.33%
GM 56.32%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)1.34%
ROA(5y)-0.4%
ROE(3y)5.42%
ROE(5y)-3.09%
ROIC(3y)5.24%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)6.57%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)9.14%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)7.22%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y-7.41%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y-9.28%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-9.13%
PM growth 3Y-24.24%
PM growth 5Y-17.41%
GM growth 3Y3.86%
GM growth 5Y0.81%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.68
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.14
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 2.94
Cap/Depr 198.75%
Cap/Sales 10.67%
Interest Coverage 4.01
Cash Conversion 93.39%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 0.52
Quick Ratio 0.49
Altman-Z 1.22
F-Score6
WACC8.44%
ROIC/WACC0.53
Cap/Depr(3y)317.88%
Cap/Depr(5y)215.36%
Cap/Sales(3y)14.19%
Cap/Sales(5y)10.61%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)12.5%
EPS 3Y-6.46%
EPS 5Y-5.48%
EPS Q2Q%-30.2%
EPS Next Y-30.3%
EPS Next 2Y13.11%
EPS Next 3Y20.6%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)27.81%
Revenue growth 3Y23.86%
Revenue growth 5Y5.97%
Sales Q2Q%27.86%
Revenue Next Year21.93%
Revenue Next 2Y14.25%
Revenue Next 3Y11.53%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y4.4%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y-3.7%
EBIT Next Year92.7%
EBIT Next 3Y41.08%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y98.78%
FCF growth 3Y-37.18%
FCF growth 5Y-29.16%
OCF growth 1Y40.59%
OCF growth 3Y12.43%
OCF growth 5Y-3.19%