ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation
NYSE:ALK • US0116591092
Current stock price
45.4 USD
+4.25 (+10.33%)
At close:
45.45 USD
+0.05 (+0.11%)
After Hours:
This ALK fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.
1. ALK Profitability Analysis
1.1 Basic Checks
- ALK had positive earnings in the past year.
- ALK had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
- In the past 5 years ALK has always been profitable.
- Each year in the past 5 years ALK had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
- ALK has a Return On Assets (0.49%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
- Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 2.43%, ALK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
- ALK has a Return On Invested Capital of 2.83%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ALK outperforms 40.91% of its industry peers.
- ALK had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 4.46%. This is significantly below the industry average of 28.11%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.49% | ||
| ROE | 2.43% | ||
| ROIC | 2.83% |
ROA(3y)1.37%
ROA(5y)1.59%
ROE(3y)5.73%
ROE(5y)6.25%
ROIC(3y)4.46%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
- With a Profit Margin value of 0.70%, ALK perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ALK has grown nicely.
- The Operating Margin of ALK (3.88%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
- ALK's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
- Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 55.09%, ALK is in line with its industry, outperforming 59.09% of the companies in the same industry.
- In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ALK has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 3.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.7% | ||
| GM | 55.09% |
OM growth 3Y-16.78%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y5.31%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y3.2%
GM growth 5Y7.36%
2. ALK Health Analysis
2.1 Basic Checks
- The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so ALK is destroying value.
- ALK has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
- ALK has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
- Compared to 1 year ago, ALK has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
- Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.13, we must say that ALK is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
- ALK has a Altman-Z score of 1.13. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ALK outperforms 54.55% of its industry peers.
- ALK has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.17. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
- ALK has a better Debt to Equity ratio (1.17) than 63.64% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.17 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.13 |
ROIC/WACC0.35
WACC8.18%
2.3 Liquidity
- ALK has a Current Ratio of 0.50. This is a bad value and indicates that ALK is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
- ALK's Current ratio of 0.50 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. ALK is outperformed by 68.18% of its industry peers.
- ALK has a Quick Ratio of 0.50. This is a bad value and indicates that ALK is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
- ALK has a Quick ratio (0.46) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.5 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.46 |
3. ALK Growth Analysis
3.1 Past
- ALK shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -48.66%.
- The earnings per share for ALK have been decreasing by -16.71% on average. This is quite bad
- The Revenue has grown by 21.34% in the past year. This is a very strong growth!
- ALK shows a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 31.90% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-48.66%
EPS 3Y-16.71%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-55.67%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)21.34%
Revenue growth 3Y13.86%
Revenue growth 5Y31.9%
Sales Q2Q%2.77%
3.2 Future
- Based on estimates for the next years, ALK will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 56.86% on average per year.
- The Revenue is expected to grow by 6.86% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y50.32%
EPS Next 2Y76.43%
EPS Next 3Y56.86%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year10.01%
Revenue Next 2Y7.53%
Revenue Next 3Y6.86%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
- When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
- The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. ALK Valuation Analysis
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- ALK is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 18.23.
- 68.18% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ALK, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
- The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.87. ALK is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
- The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 12.13, which indicates a correct valuation of ALK.
- ALK's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. ALK is cheaper than 68.18% of the companies in the same industry.
- ALK's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 38.51.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.23 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.13 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of ALK indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: ALK is cheaper than 68.18% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.25 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- ALK's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
- A more expensive valuation may be justified as ALK's earnings are expected to grow with 56.86% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.36
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y76.43%
EPS Next 3Y56.86%
5. ALK Dividend Analysis
5.1 Amount
- No dividends for ALK!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
ALK Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics
45.4
+4.25 (+10.33%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryPassenger Airlines
Earnings (Last)01-22 2026-01-22/amc
Earnings (Next)04-20 2026-04-20/amc
Inst Owners93.4%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.72%
Ins Owner Change15.77%
Market Cap5.14B
Revenue(TTM)14.24B
Net Income(TTM)100.00M
Analysts82.73
Price Target62.7 (38.11%)
Short Float %13.43%
Short Ratio3.45
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)120.98%
Min EPS beat(2)-7.79%
Max EPS beat(2)249.74%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)63.61%
Min EPS beat(4)-7.79%
Max EPS beat(4)249.74%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)49.07%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)36.3%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)28.77%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.99%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.28%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.71%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.95%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.19%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.17%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.5%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.43%
PT rev (1m)-12.4%
PT rev (3m)-10.7%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-48.11%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-106.53%
EPS NY rev (1m)-31.49%
EPS NY rev (3m)-33.42%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.51%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.06%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.77%
Revenue NY rev (3m)2.43%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.23 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.13 | ||
| P/S | 0.36 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 4.12 | ||
| P/B | 1.25 | ||
| P/tB | 8.87 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.25 |
EPS(TTM)2.49
EY5.48%
EPS(NY)3.74
Fwd EY8.24%
FCF(TTM)-2.99
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)11.02
OCFY24.28%
SpS125.66
BVpS36.34
TBVpS5.12
PEG (NY)0.36
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number45.1232 (-0.61%)
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.49% | ||
| ROE | 2.43% | ||
| ROCE | 4.02% | ||
| ROIC | 2.83% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.35% | ||
| ROICexgc | 4.81% | ||
| OM | 3.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.7% | ||
| GM | 55.09% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)1.37%
ROA(5y)1.59%
ROE(3y)5.73%
ROE(5y)6.25%
ROIC(3y)4.46%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)5.4%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)7.56%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)6.33%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-18.1%
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3Y-19%
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-16.78%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y5.31%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y3.2%
GM growth 5Y7.36%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.7
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.17 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.59 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 199.75% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 11.15% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.48 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 92.66% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.5 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.46 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.13 |
F-Score5
WACC8.18%
ROIC/WACC0.35
Cap/Depr(3y)250.25%
Cap/Depr(5y)245.5%
Cap/Sales(3y)12.13%
Cap/Sales(5y)11.69%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-48.66%
EPS 3Y-16.71%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-55.67%
EPS Next Y50.32%
EPS Next 2Y76.43%
EPS Next 3Y56.86%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)21.34%
Revenue growth 3Y13.86%
Revenue growth 5Y31.9%
Sales Q2Q%2.77%
Revenue Next Year10.01%
Revenue Next 2Y7.53%
Revenue Next 3Y6.86%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-39.56%
EBIT growth 3Y-5.24%
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year201.26%
EBIT Next 3Y68.62%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-285.25%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-14.69%
OCF growth 3Y-4.14%
OCF growth 5YN/A
ALASKA AIR GROUP INC / ALK Fundamental Analysis FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to ALK.
Can you provide the valuation status for ALASKA AIR GROUP INC?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ALASKA AIR GROUP INC?
ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
Can you provide the financial health for ALK stock?
The financial health rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) is 2 / 10.
Is the dividend of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC sustainable?
The dividend rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.