ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:ALK • US0116591092

Current stock price

39.945 USD
+0.05 (+0.11%)
Last:

This ALK fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

5

1. ALK Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • ALK had positive earnings in the past year.
  • ALK had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • Each year in the past 5 years ALK has been profitable.
  • Each year in the past 5 years ALK had a positive operating cash flow.
ALK Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFALK Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1B -1B

1.2 Ratios

  • ALK has a Return On Assets (0.49%) which is in line with its industry peers.
  • Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 2.43%, ALK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ALK has a Return On Invested Capital (2.83%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for ALK is significantly below the industry average of 28.44%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.49%
ROE 2.43%
ROIC 2.83%
ROA(3y)1.37%
ROA(5y)1.59%
ROE(3y)5.73%
ROE(5y)6.25%
ROIC(3y)4.46%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ALK Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICALK Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 -20 -40

1.3 Margins

  • With a Profit Margin value of 0.70%, ALK perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 54.55% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ALK's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 3.88%, ALK is in line with its industry, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ALK's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
  • ALK has a Gross Margin of 55.09%. This is in the better half of the industry: ALK outperforms 63.64% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ALK has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 3.88%
PM (TTM) 0.7%
GM 55.09%
OM growth 3Y-16.78%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y5.31%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y3.2%
GM growth 5Y7.36%
ALK Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsALK Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 -20 40 -40 60

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2

2. ALK Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • ALK has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, ALK has less shares outstanding
  • Compared to 5 years ago, ALK has less shares outstanding
  • Compared to 1 year ago, ALK has a worse debt to assets ratio.
ALK Yearly Shares OutstandingALK Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20M 40M 60M 80M 100M
ALK Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsALK Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5B 10B 15B 20B

2.2 Solvency

  • Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.11, we must say that ALK is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • ALK has a Altman-Z score (1.11) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • ALK has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.17. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.17, ALK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.17
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 1.11
ROIC/WACC0.34
WACC8.38%
ALK Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFALK Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1B 2B 3B 4B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 0.50 indicates that ALK may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • ALK has a Current ratio of 0.50. This is in the lower half of the industry: ALK underperforms 63.64% of its industry peers.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.46 indicates that ALK may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • The Quick ratio of ALK (0.46) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.5
Quick Ratio 0.46
ALK Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesALK Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B

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6

3. ALK Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • ALK shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -48.66%.
  • Measured over the past years, ALK shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -16.71% on average per year.
  • Looking at the last year, ALK shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 21.34%.
  • ALK shows a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 31.90% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-48.66%
EPS 3Y-16.71%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-55.67%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)21.34%
Revenue growth 3Y13.86%
Revenue growth 5Y31.9%
Sales Q2Q%2.77%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 58.17% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
  • Based on estimates for the next years, ALK will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 6.76% on average per year.
EPS Next Y119.42%
EPS Next 2Y84.99%
EPS Next 3Y58.17%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year9.37%
Revenue Next 2Y7.38%
Revenue Next 3Y6.76%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
ALK Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesALK Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 5B 10B 15B
ALK Yearly EPS VS EstimatesALK Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 0 5 -5 -10

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6

4. ALK Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • ALK is valuated correctly with a Price/Earnings ratio of 16.04.
  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, ALK is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 68.18% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.91. ALK is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.31, the valuation of ALK can be described as very cheap.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ALK indicates a rather cheap valuation: ALK is cheaper than 86.36% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • ALK is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 23.68, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 16.04
Fwd PE 7.31
ALK Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsALK Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ALK is valued cheaply inside the industry as 81.82% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 4.83
ALK Per share dataALK EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 20 40 60 80 100

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • ALK's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • ALK's earnings are expected to grow with 58.17% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.13
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y84.99%
EPS Next 3Y58.17%

More info and screens

Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

0

5. ALK Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • ALK does not give a dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%

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ALK Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

ALASKA AIR GROUP INC

NYSE:ALK (4/10/2026, 10:24:04 AM)

39.945

+0.05 (+0.11%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryPassenger Airlines
Earnings (Last)01-22
Earnings (Next)04-20
Inst Owners92.11%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.71%
Ins Owner Change15.77%
Market Cap4.58B
Revenue(TTM)14.24B
Net Income(TTM)100.00M
Analysts82.73
Price Target68.03 (70.31%)
Short Float %11.37%
Short Ratio2.95
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)120.98%
Min EPS beat(2)-7.79%
Max EPS beat(2)249.74%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)63.61%
Min EPS beat(4)-7.79%
Max EPS beat(4)249.74%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)49.07%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)36.3%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)28.77%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.99%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.28%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.71%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.95%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.19%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.17%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.5%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.43%
PT rev (1m)-4.94%
PT rev (3m)1.83%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-22.57%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-61.47%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-2.81%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.78%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.15%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.69%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.8%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 16.04
Fwd PE 7.31
P/S 0.32
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 3.67
P/B 1.11
P/tB 7.9
EV/EBITDA 4.83
EPS(TTM)2.49
EY6.23%
EPS(NY)5.46
Fwd EY13.68%
FCF(TTM)-2.96
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)10.9
OCFY27.28%
SpS124.21
BVpS35.92
TBVpS5.06
PEG (NY)0.13
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.86
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.49%
ROE 2.43%
ROCE 4.02%
ROIC 2.83%
ROICexc 3.35%
ROICexgc 4.81%
OM 3.88%
PM (TTM) 0.7%
GM 55.09%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)1.37%
ROA(5y)1.59%
ROE(3y)5.73%
ROE(5y)6.25%
ROIC(3y)4.46%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)5.4%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)7.56%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)6.33%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-18.1%
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3Y-19%
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-16.78%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y5.31%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y3.2%
GM growth 5Y7.36%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.7
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.17
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 3.59
Cap/Depr 199.75%
Cap/Sales 11.15%
Interest Coverage 2.48
Cash Conversion 92.66%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 0.5
Quick Ratio 0.46
Altman-Z 1.11
F-Score5
WACC8.38%
ROIC/WACC0.34
Cap/Depr(3y)250.25%
Cap/Depr(5y)245.5%
Cap/Sales(3y)12.13%
Cap/Sales(5y)11.69%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-48.66%
EPS 3Y-16.71%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-55.67%
EPS Next Y119.42%
EPS Next 2Y84.99%
EPS Next 3Y58.17%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)21.34%
Revenue growth 3Y13.86%
Revenue growth 5Y31.9%
Sales Q2Q%2.77%
Revenue Next Year9.37%
Revenue Next 2Y7.38%
Revenue Next 3Y6.76%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-39.56%
EBIT growth 3Y-5.24%
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year260.58%
EBIT Next 3Y69.46%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-285.25%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-14.69%
OCF growth 3Y-4.14%
OCF growth 5YN/A

ALASKA AIR GROUP INC / ALK Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to ALK.


Can you provide the valuation status for ALASKA AIR GROUP INC?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


Can you provide the profitability details for ALASKA AIR GROUP INC?

ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.


Can you provide the financial health for ALK stock?

The financial health rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) is 2 / 10.


Is the dividend of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC sustainable?

The dividend rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.