ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:ALK - US0116591092 - Common Stock
42.93 USD
+1.8 (+4.38%)
43.01 USD
+0.08 (+0.19%)
Taking everything into account, ALK scores 3 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. ALK was compared to 21 industry peers in the Passenger Airlines industry. ALK has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. ALK has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ALK had positive earnings in the past year.
ALK had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years ALK 4 years were profitable.
ALK had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
With a Return On Assets value of 0.75%, ALK perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 57.14% of the companies in the same industry.
ALK's Return On Equity of 3.72% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ALK outperforms 61.90% of its industry peers.
ALK has a Return On Invested Capital (3.28%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
ALK had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 5.24%. This is significantly below the industry average of 14.21%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.75% | ||
| ROE | 3.72% | ||
| ROIC | 3.28% |
ROA(3y)1.34%
ROA(5y)-0.4%
ROE(3y)5.42%
ROE(5y)-3.09%
ROIC(3y)5.24%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
With a Profit Margin value of 1.06%, ALK perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 57.14% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ALK has declined.
ALK has a Operating Margin (4.26%) which is in line with its industry peers.
ALK's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of ALK (55.33%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ALK has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.26% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.06% | ||
| GM | 55.33% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-9.13%
PM growth 3Y-24.24%
PM growth 5Y-17.41%
GM growth 3Y3.86%
GM growth 5Y0.81%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
ALK has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
ALK has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, ALK has about the same amount of shares outstanding.
The debt/assets ratio for ALK is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
ALK has an Altman-Z score of 1.15. This is a bad value and indicates that ALK is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of ALK (1.15) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
ALK has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.12. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
ALK has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.12. This is in the better half of the industry: ALK outperforms 61.90% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.12 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.15 |
ROIC/WACC0.42
WACC7.86%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.52 indicates that ALK may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
ALK's Current ratio of 0.52 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. ALK is outperformed by 61.90% of its industry peers.
ALK has a Quick Ratio of 0.52. This is a bad value and indicates that ALK is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ALK's Quick ratio of 0.49 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ALK outperforms 42.86% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for ALK have decreased strongly by -27.51% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, ALK shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -5.48% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, ALK shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 31.50%.
Measured over the past years, ALK shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 5.97% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-27.51%
EPS 3Y-6.46%
EPS 5Y-5.48%
EPS Q2Q%-53.33%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)31.5%
Revenue growth 3Y23.86%
Revenue growth 5Y5.97%
Sales Q2Q%22.59%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, ALK will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 18.51% on average per year.
ALK is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 11.69% yearly.
EPS Next Y-49.45%
EPS Next 2Y5.55%
EPS Next 3Y18.51%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year22.03%
Revenue Next 2Y14.4%
Revenue Next 3Y11.69%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 14.17, the valuation of ALK can be described as correct.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of ALK indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: ALK is cheaper than 66.67% of the companies listed in the same industry.
ALK is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 25.83, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
ALK is valuated cheaply with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.95.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ALK is valued a bit cheaper than 76.19% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 32.68, ALK is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.17 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.95 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of ALK is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.26 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
ALK's earnings are expected to grow with 18.51% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y5.55%
EPS Next 3Y18.51%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for ALK!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
42.93
+1.8 (+4.38%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryPassenger Airlines
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners91.09%
Inst Owner Change-2.61%
Ins Owners0.57%
Ins Owner Change-0.41%
Market Cap4.95B
Revenue(TTM)14.14B
Net Income(TTM)150.00M
Analysts82
Price Target65.71 (53.06%)
Short Float %7.37%
Short Ratio2.79
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)3.23%
Min EPS beat(2)-7.79%
Max EPS beat(2)14.26%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)30.21%
Min EPS beat(4)-7.79%
Max EPS beat(4)116.17%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)25.85%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)15.26%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)13.56%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.26%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.71%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.19%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.15%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.9%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.4%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.57%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.23%
PT rev (1m)-4.99%
PT rev (3m)0.36%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-62.77%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-63.48%
EPS NY rev (1m)-24.88%
EPS NY rev (3m)-34.31%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.7%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.78%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.03%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.31%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.17 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.95 | ||
| P/S | 0.35 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 3.7 | ||
| P/B | 1.23 | ||
| P/tB | 10.38 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.26 |
EPS(TTM)3.03
EY7.06%
EPS(NY)5.4
Fwd EY12.59%
FCF(TTM)-0.47
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)11.6
OCFY27.03%
SpS122.63
BVpS34.94
TBVpS4.14
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number48.81
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.75% | ||
| ROE | 3.72% | ||
| ROCE | 4.52% | ||
| ROIC | 3.28% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.95% | ||
| ROICexgc | 5.82% | ||
| OM | 4.26% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.06% | ||
| GM | 55.33% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)1.34%
ROA(5y)-0.4%
ROE(3y)5.42%
ROE(5y)-3.09%
ROIC(3y)5.24%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)6.57%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)9.14%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)7.22%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y-7.41%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y-9.28%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-9.13%
PM growth 3Y-24.24%
PM growth 5Y-17.41%
GM growth 3Y3.86%
GM growth 5Y0.81%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.71
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.12 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.82 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 238.77% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 9.84% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 112.82% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.15 |
F-Score5
WACC7.86%
ROIC/WACC0.42
Cap/Depr(3y)317.88%
Cap/Depr(5y)215.36%
Cap/Sales(3y)14.19%
Cap/Sales(5y)10.61%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-27.51%
EPS 3Y-6.46%
EPS 5Y-5.48%
EPS Q2Q%-53.33%
EPS Next Y-49.45%
EPS Next 2Y5.55%
EPS Next 3Y18.51%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)31.5%
Revenue growth 3Y23.86%
Revenue growth 5Y5.97%
Sales Q2Q%22.59%
Revenue Next Year22.03%
Revenue Next 2Y14.4%
Revenue Next 3Y11.69%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-26.46%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y-3.7%
EBIT Next Year94.04%
EBIT Next 3Y43.4%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y91.04%
FCF growth 3Y-37.18%
FCF growth 5Y-29.16%
OCF growth 1Y20.32%
OCF growth 3Y12.43%
OCF growth 5Y-3.19%
ALASKA AIR GROUP INC / ALK FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to ALK.
What is the valuation status of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?
ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for ALK stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) is 14.17 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.23.
Can you provide the dividend sustainability for ALK stock?
The dividend rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.