ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:ALK - US0116591092 - Common Stock
41.67 USD
-0.67 (-1.58%)
41.8999 USD
+0.23 (+0.55%)
Overall ALK gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated ALK against 21 industry peers in the Passenger Airlines industry. While ALK is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. ALK has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ALK had positive earnings in the past year.
ALK had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
ALK had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
ALK had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 0.75%, ALK is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.14% of the companies in the same industry.
ALK has a better Return On Equity (3.72%) than 61.90% of its industry peers.
ALK has a Return On Invested Capital of 3.28%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ALK outperforms 52.38% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for ALK is significantly below the industry average of 13.75%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.75% | ||
| ROE | 3.72% | ||
| ROIC | 3.28% |
ROA(3y)1.34%
ROA(5y)-0.4%
ROE(3y)5.42%
ROE(5y)-3.09%
ROIC(3y)5.24%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
ALK's Profit Margin of 1.06% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ALK outperforms 57.14% of its industry peers.
ALK's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
ALK's Operating Margin of 4.26% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ALK outperforms 57.14% of its industry peers.
ALK's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of ALK (55.33%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
ALK's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.26% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.06% | ||
| GM | 55.33% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-9.13%
PM growth 3Y-24.24%
PM growth 5Y-17.41%
GM growth 3Y3.86%
GM growth 5Y0.81%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so ALK is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, ALK has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for ALK remains at a similar level compared to 5 years ago.
ALK has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.15, we must say that ALK is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
ALK has a better Altman-Z score (1.15) than 61.90% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.12 is on the high side and indicates that ALK has dependencies on debt financing.
With a decent Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.12, ALK is doing good in the industry, outperforming 61.90% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.12 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.15 |
ROIC/WACC0.42
WACC7.79%
2.3 Liquidity
ALK has a Current Ratio of 0.52. This is a bad value and indicates that ALK is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ALK has a Current ratio of 0.52. This is in the lower half of the industry: ALK underperforms 61.90% of its industry peers.
ALK has a Quick Ratio of 0.52. This is a bad value and indicates that ALK is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ALK has a Quick ratio (0.49) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for ALK have decreased strongly by -27.51% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been decreasing by -5.48% on average over the past years.
Looking at the last year, ALK shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 31.50%.
Measured over the past years, ALK shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 5.97% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-27.51%
EPS 3Y-6.46%
EPS 5Y-5.48%
EPS Q2Q%-53.33%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)31.5%
Revenue growth 3Y23.86%
Revenue growth 5Y5.97%
Sales Q2Q%22.59%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 18.51% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
Based on estimates for the next years, ALK will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 11.69% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-49.45%
EPS Next 2Y5.55%
EPS Next 3Y18.51%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year22.03%
Revenue Next 2Y14.4%
Revenue Next 3Y11.69%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 13.75, which indicates a correct valuation of ALK.
ALK's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. ALK is cheaper than 66.67% of the companies in the same industry.
ALK is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 25.89, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.71, the valuation of ALK can be described as very cheap.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ALK indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: ALK is cheaper than 76.19% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 34.59. ALK is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.75 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.71 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ALK is valued cheaply inside the industry as 90.48% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.39 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
ALK's earnings are expected to grow with 18.51% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y5.55%
EPS Next 3Y18.51%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for ALK!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
41.67
-0.67 (-1.58%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryPassenger Airlines
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners91.09%
Inst Owner Change-0.73%
Ins Owners0.57%
Ins Owner Change-2.98%
Market Cap4.80B
Revenue(TTM)14.14B
Net Income(TTM)150.00M
Analysts82
Price Target65.71 (57.69%)
Short Float %7.37%
Short Ratio2.79
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)3.23%
Min EPS beat(2)-7.79%
Max EPS beat(2)14.26%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)30.21%
Min EPS beat(4)-7.79%
Max EPS beat(4)116.17%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)25.85%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)15.26%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)13.56%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.26%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.71%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.19%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.15%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.9%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.4%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.57%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.23%
PT rev (1m)-4.99%
PT rev (3m)0.36%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-57.33%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-63.82%
EPS NY rev (1m)-24.88%
EPS NY rev (3m)-34.31%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.59%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.78%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.03%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.31%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.75 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.71 | ||
| P/S | 0.34 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 3.59 | ||
| P/B | 1.19 | ||
| P/tB | 10.07 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.39 |
EPS(TTM)3.03
EY7.27%
EPS(NY)5.4
Fwd EY12.97%
FCF(TTM)-0.47
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)11.6
OCFY27.85%
SpS122.63
BVpS34.94
TBVpS4.14
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number48.81
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.75% | ||
| ROE | 3.72% | ||
| ROCE | 4.52% | ||
| ROIC | 3.28% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.95% | ||
| ROICexgc | 5.82% | ||
| OM | 4.26% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.06% | ||
| GM | 55.33% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)1.34%
ROA(5y)-0.4%
ROE(3y)5.42%
ROE(5y)-3.09%
ROIC(3y)5.24%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)6.57%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)9.14%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)7.22%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y-7.41%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y-9.28%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-9.13%
PM growth 3Y-24.24%
PM growth 5Y-17.41%
GM growth 3Y3.86%
GM growth 5Y0.81%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.71
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.12 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.26 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 177.1% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 9.84% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.77 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 96.33% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.15 |
F-Score6
WACC7.79%
ROIC/WACC0.42
Cap/Depr(3y)317.88%
Cap/Depr(5y)215.36%
Cap/Sales(3y)14.19%
Cap/Sales(5y)10.61%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-27.51%
EPS 3Y-6.46%
EPS 5Y-5.48%
EPS Q2Q%-53.33%
EPS Next Y-49.45%
EPS Next 2Y5.55%
EPS Next 3Y18.51%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)31.5%
Revenue growth 3Y23.86%
Revenue growth 5Y5.97%
Sales Q2Q%22.59%
Revenue Next Year22.03%
Revenue Next 2Y14.4%
Revenue Next 3Y11.69%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-26.46%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y-3.7%
EBIT Next Year94.04%
EBIT Next 3Y43.4%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y91.04%
FCF growth 3Y-37.18%
FCF growth 5Y-29.16%
OCF growth 1Y20.32%
OCF growth 3Y12.43%
OCF growth 5Y-3.19%
ALASKA AIR GROUP INC / ALK FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to ALK.
What is the valuation status of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?
ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for ALK stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) is 13.75 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.19.
Can you provide the dividend sustainability for ALK stock?
The dividend rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.