ALLEGIANT TRAVEL CO (ALGT) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:ALGT - Nasdaq - US01748X1028 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall ALGT gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated ALGT against 23 industry peers in the Passenger Airlines industry. Both the profitability and financial health of ALGT have multiple concerns. A decent growth rate in combination with a cheap valuation! Better keep an eye on ALGT.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ALGT had positive earnings in the past year.
ALGT had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years ALGT reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years ALGT had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
With a Return On Assets value of -5.44%, ALGT is not doing good in the industry: 60.87% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
ALGT has a Return On Equity (-22.11%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
ALGT's Return On Invested Capital of 3.01% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ALGT outperforms 52.17% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for ALGT is significantly below the industry average of 11.12%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -5.44% | ||
| ROE | -22.11% | ||
| ROIC | 3.01% |
ROA(3y)-1.02%
ROA(5y)-0.99%
ROE(3y)-4.46%
ROE(5y)-5.5%
ROIC(3y)3.54%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
ALGT has a Operating Margin (5.10%) which is in line with its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ALGT has declined.
ALGT has a better Gross Margin (69.09%) than 91.30% of its industry peers.
ALGT's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 5.1% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 69.09% |
OM growth 3Y5.16%
OM growth 5Y-23.74%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y1.14%
GM growth 5Y-0.76%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), ALGT is destroying value.
ALGT has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
ALGT has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, ALGT has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
ALGT has an Altman-Z score of 1.05. This is a bad value and indicates that ALGT is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.05, ALGT is in line with its industry, outperforming 56.52% of the companies in the same industry.
ALGT has a debt to FCF ratio of 53.95. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as ALGT would need 53.95 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 53.95, ALGT perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 56.52% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.48 is on the high side and indicates that ALGT has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.48, ALGT perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 56.52% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.48 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 53.95 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.05 |
ROIC/WACC0.44
WACC6.83%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.78 indicates that ALGT may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
ALGT has a Current ratio of 0.78. This is in the better half of the industry: ALGT outperforms 65.22% of its industry peers.
ALGT has a Quick Ratio of 0.78. This is a bad value and indicates that ALGT is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of ALGT (0.75) is better than 73.91% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.78 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.75 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for ALGT have decreased strongly by -68.12% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, ALGT shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -30.09% on average per year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 0.11% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, ALGT shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 6.42% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-68.12%
EPS 3Y12.05%
EPS 5Y-30.09%
EPS Q2Q%1809.09%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.11%
Revenue growth 3Y13.73%
Revenue growth 5Y6.42%
Sales Q2Q%2.73%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, ALGT will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 61.22% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 10.36% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y171.22%
EPS Next 2Y90.72%
EPS Next 3Y61.22%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year9.91%
Revenue Next 2Y10.05%
Revenue Next 3Y10.36%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 16.90 indicates a correct valuation of ALGT.
ALGT's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
ALGT's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 28.29.
ALGT is valuated cheaply with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 6.23.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ALGT is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 65.22% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.32, ALGT is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.9 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6.23 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ALGT is valued a bit cheaper than 78.26% of the companies in the same industry.
60.87% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ALGT, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 19.58 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.14 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
ALGT's earnings are expected to grow with 61.22% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.1
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y90.72%
EPS Next 3Y61.22%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
ALGT has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.36%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
In the last 3 months the price of ALGT has falen by -60.19%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
ALGT's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 3.05.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.51, ALGT's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.36% |
5.2 History
The dividend of ALGT decreases each year by -15.68%.
ALGT has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
ALGT has decreased its dividend recently.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-15.68%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years1
5.3 Sustainability
ALGT has negative earnings and hence a negative payout ratio. The dividend may be in danger.
DP-9.11%
EPS Next 2Y90.72%
EPS Next 3Y61.22%
40.9
-3.26 (-7.38%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryPassenger Airlines
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners85.14%
Inst Owner Change0.23%
Ins Owners22.48%
Ins Owner Change-1.56%
Market Cap750.11M
Analysts68
Price Target99.22 (142.59%)
Short Float %9.57%
Short Ratio3.23
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.36% |
Yearly Dividend1.2
Dividend Growth(5Y)-15.68%
DP-9.11%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years1
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)1.67%
Min EPS beat(2)-2.61%
Max EPS beat(2)5.94%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)35.24%
Min EPS beat(4)-2.61%
Max EPS beat(4)125.87%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)42.81%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)48.84%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)36.99%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.13%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.88%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.28%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.38%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.11%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.79%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.43%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.74%
PT rev (1m)-2.9%
PT rev (3m)22.85%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-10.28%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.16%
EPS NY rev (1m)-14.65%
EPS NY rev (3m)12.65%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.84%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.89%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-2.7%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.19%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.9 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6.23 | ||
| P/S | 0.3 | ||
| P/FCF | 19.58 | ||
| P/OCF | 2.22 | ||
| P/B | 0.69 | ||
| P/tB | 0.69 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.14 |
EPS(TTM)2.42
EY5.92%
EPS(NY)6.56
Fwd EY16.05%
FCF(TTM)2.09
FCFY5.11%
OCF(TTM)18.45
OCFY45.12%
SpS137
BVpS59.4
TBVpS59.4
PEG (NY)0.1
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -5.44% | ||
| ROE | -22.11% | ||
| ROCE | 4.07% | ||
| ROIC | 3.01% | ||
| ROICexc | 4% | ||
| ROICexgc | 4% | ||
| OM | 5.1% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 69.09% | ||
| FCFM | 1.52% |
ROA(3y)-1.02%
ROA(5y)-0.99%
ROE(3y)-4.46%
ROE(5y)-5.5%
ROIC(3y)3.54%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)4.65%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)4.65%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)4.79%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y15.68%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-22.03%
ROICexc growth 3Y15.68%
ROICexc growth 5Y-22.03%
OM growth 3Y5.16%
OM growth 5Y-23.74%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y1.14%
GM growth 5Y-0.76%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.57
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.48 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 53.95 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 4.17 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 116.23% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 11.95% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.19 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 87.59% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.78 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.75 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.05 |
F-Score6
WACC6.83%
ROIC/WACC0.44
Cap/Depr(3y)191.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)174.75%
Cap/Sales(3y)17.29%
Cap/Sales(5y)19.05%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-68.12%
EPS 3Y12.05%
EPS 5Y-30.09%
EPS Q2Q%1809.09%
EPS Next Y171.22%
EPS Next 2Y90.72%
EPS Next 3Y61.22%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.11%
Revenue growth 3Y13.73%
Revenue growth 5Y6.42%
Sales Q2Q%2.73%
Revenue Next Year9.91%
Revenue Next 2Y10.05%
Revenue Next 3Y10.36%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-48.64%
EBIT growth 3Y19.61%
EBIT growth 5Y-18.84%
EBIT Next Year302.34%
EBIT Next 3Y73.28%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y136.4%
FCF growth 3Y-48.64%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-20%
OCF growth 3Y-14.33%
OCF growth 5Y-5.21%