AIR LEASE CORP (AL) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AL - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US00912X3026 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
AL gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 48 industry peers in the Trading Companies & Distributors industry. Both the profitability and financial health of AL have multiple concerns. AL has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate. Finally AL also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AL had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AL had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years AL 4 years were profitable.
In the past 5 years AL always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 1.15%, AL is doing worse than 70.21% of the companies in the same industry.
With a Return On Equity value of 4.94%, AL is not doing good in the industry: 74.47% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
The Return On Invested Capital of AL (3.79%) is worse than 74.47% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for AL is significantly below the industry average of 9.88%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.15% | ||
| ROE | 4.94% | ||
| ROIC | 3.79% |
ROA(3y)0.85%
ROA(5y)1.21%
ROE(3y)3.62%
ROE(5y)4.99%
ROIC(3y)3.82%
ROIC(5y)3.74%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 13.61%, AL belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 87.23% of the companies in the same industry.
AL's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AL has a Operating Margin of 50.12%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AL outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AL has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 50.12% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 13.61% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-0.23%
OM growth 5Y-2.88%
PM growth 3Y-11.36%
PM growth 5Y-13.75%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AL is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, AL has more shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, AL has less shares outstanding
AL has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.44, we must say that AL is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
AL's Altman-Z score of 0.44 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AL is outperformed by 89.36% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.68 is on the high side and indicates that AL has dependencies on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of AL (2.68) is worse than 80.85% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.68 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.44 |
ROIC/WACC0.64
WACC5.97%
2.3 Liquidity
AL has a Current Ratio of 0.15. This is a bad value and indicates that AL is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AL has a Current ratio of 0.15. This is amonst the worse of the industry: AL underperforms 97.87% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.15 indicates that AL may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.15, AL is doing worse than 95.74% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.15 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.15 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AL shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -25.44%.
The Earnings Per Share has been decreasing by -5.48% on average over the past years.
AL shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 1.81%.
AL shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 6.27% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-25.44%
EPS 3Y2.56%
EPS 5Y-5.48%
EPS Q2Q%-29.1%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.81%
Revenue growth 3Y9.39%
Revenue growth 5Y6.27%
Sales Q2Q%-0.51%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AL will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 17.72% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 7.23% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y7.55%
EPS Next 2Y21.1%
EPS Next 3Y17.72%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year7.26%
Revenue Next 2Y7.3%
Revenue Next 3Y7.23%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 12.43, AL is valued correctly.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AL is valued cheaper than 82.98% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 29.62, AL is valued rather cheaply.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.55 indicates a reasonable valuation of AL.
AL's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AL is cheaper than 82.98% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.70. AL is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.43 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.55 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AL's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.96 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AL's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AL's earnings are expected to grow with 17.72% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.64
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y21.1%
EPS Next 3Y17.72%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.74%, AL has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
AL's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 1.90. AL pays more dividend than 80.85% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to the average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.27, AL is paying slightly less dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.74% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AL grows each year by 15.24%, which is quite nice.
AL has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AL has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.24%
Div Incr Years11
Div Non Decr Years11
5.3 Sustainability
37.96% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AL. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of AL is growing around the same rate as the earnings are growing. If this keeps up the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP37.96%
EPS Next 2Y21.1%
EPS Next 3Y17.72%
NYSE:AL (2/24/2025, 2:47:54 PM)
47.72
+0.09 (+0.19%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCapital Goods
GICS IndustryTrading Companies & Distributors
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners99.58%
Inst Owner Change-90.3%
Ins Owners6.46%
Ins Owner Change1.68%
Market Cap5.32B
Analysts82.67
Price Target59.67 (25.04%)
Short Float %2.57%
Short Ratio4.2
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.74% |
Yearly Dividend1.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.24%
DP37.96%
Div Incr Years11
Div Non Decr Years11
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)37.7%
Min EPS beat(2)0.65%
Max EPS beat(2)74.74%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)13.13%
Min EPS beat(4)-12.72%
Max EPS beat(4)74.74%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)17.11%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)27.16%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)22.04%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.34%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.69%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.25%
Min Revenue beat(4)-5.42%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.37%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.89%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.68%
PT rev (1m)1.61%
PT rev (3m)3.36%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-2.73%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-15.65%
EPS NY rev (1m)-11.24%
EPS NY rev (3m)-11.88%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.68%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)2.39%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-4.73%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-4.61%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.43 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.55 | ||
| P/S | 1.94 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 3.17 | ||
| P/B | 0.71 | ||
| P/tB | 0.71 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.96 |
EPS(TTM)3.84
EY8.05%
EPS(NY)4.13
Fwd EY8.65%
FCF(TTM)-21.89
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)15.06
OCFY31.55%
SpS24.54
BVpS67.63
TBVpS67.63
PEG (NY)1.64
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.15% | ||
| ROE | 4.94% | ||
| ROCE | 4.69% | ||
| ROIC | 3.79% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.86% | ||
| ROICexgc | 4.42% | ||
| OM | 50.12% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 13.61% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.85%
ROA(5y)1.21%
ROE(3y)3.62%
ROE(5y)4.99%
ROIC(3y)3.82%
ROIC(5y)3.74%
ROICexc(3y)3.9%
ROICexc(5y)3.88%
ROICexgc(3y)4.48%
ROICexgc(5y)4.46%
ROCE(3y)4.73%
ROCE(5y)4.62%
ROICexcg growth 3Y3.06%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-4.4%
ROICexc growth 3Y2.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y-4.21%
OM growth 3Y-0.23%
OM growth 5Y-2.88%
PM growth 3Y-11.36%
PM growth 5Y-13.75%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.08
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.68 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 8.04 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 359.75% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 150.52% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.72 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 66.71% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.15 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.15 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.44 |
F-Score4
WACC5.97%
ROIC/WACC0.64
Cap/Depr(3y)355.33%
Cap/Depr(5y)321.11%
Cap/Sales(3y)145.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)131.53%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-25.44%
EPS 3Y2.56%
EPS 5Y-5.48%
EPS Q2Q%-29.1%
EPS Next Y7.55%
EPS Next 2Y21.1%
EPS Next 3Y17.72%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.81%
Revenue growth 3Y9.39%
Revenue growth 5Y6.27%
Sales Q2Q%-0.51%
Revenue Next Year7.26%
Revenue Next 2Y7.3%
Revenue Next 3Y7.23%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-1.83%
EBIT growth 3Y9.14%
EBIT growth 5Y3.21%
EBIT Next Year156.29%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-3.84%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-4%
OCF growth 3Y6.8%
OCF growth 5Y3.79%