AIR LEASE CORP (AL)
US00912X3026 - Common Stock
Overall AL gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. We evaluated AL against 48 industry peers in the Trading Companies & Distributors industry. While AL is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. AL has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AL was profitable.
AL had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years AL 4 years were profitable.
In the past 5 years AL always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
AL has a worse Return On Assets (1.52%) than 68.09% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Equity value of 6.39%, AL is not doing good in the industry: 72.34% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 3.87%, AL is doing worse than 74.47% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for AL is significantly below the industry average of 9.72%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (3.87%) for AL is above the 3 year average (3.72%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.52% | ||
| ROE | 6.39% | ||
| ROIC | 3.87% |
ROA(3y)0.97%
ROA(5y)1.51%
ROE(3y)3.91%
ROE(5y)6.04%
ROIC(3y)3.72%
ROIC(5y)3.95%
1.3 Margins
AL's Profit Margin of 17.91% is amongst the best of the industry. AL outperforms 95.74% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AL has declined.
The Operating Margin of AL (50.82%) is better than 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AL has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 50.82% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 17.91% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-2.25%
OM growth 5Y-2.34%
PM growth 3Y-4.96%
PM growth 5Y-6.84%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AL has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
AL has about the same amout of shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, AL has about the same amount of shares outstanding.
The debt/assets ratio for AL has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.45, we must say that AL is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
AL has a Altman-Z score of 0.45. This is amonst the worse of the industry: AL underperforms 97.87% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.63 is on the high side and indicates that AL has dependencies on debt financing.
AL's Debt to Equity ratio of 2.63 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AL is outperformed by 78.72% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.63 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.45 |
ROIC/WACC0.66
WACC5.89%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.16 indicates that AL may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AL's Current ratio of 0.16 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AL is outperformed by 97.87% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.16 indicates that AL may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AL has a worse Quick ratio (0.16) than 95.74% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.16 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.16 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AL shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -1.79%.
Measured over the past 5 years, AL shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 2.28% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, AL shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 6.51% in the last year.
AL shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 9.84% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-1.79%
EPS 3Y5.47%
EPS 5Y2.28%
EPS Q2Q%-25.45%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)6.51%
Revenue growth 3Y10.03%
Revenue growth 5Y9.84%
Sales Q2Q%4.67%
3.2 Future
AL is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 1.32% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, AL will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 7.28% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-34.27%
EPS Next 2Y-4.95%
EPS Next 3Y1.32%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year2.92%
Revenue Next 2Y7.52%
Revenue Next 3Y7.28%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 10.88 indicates a reasonable valuation of AL.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AL indicates a rather cheap valuation: AL is cheaper than 85.11% of the companies listed in the same industry.
AL's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 27.41.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.27, the valuation of AL can be described as very reasonable.
85.11% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AL, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AL to the average of the S&P500 Index (23.69), we can say AL is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.88 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.27 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as AL.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.96 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)4.76
EPS Next 2Y-4.95%
EPS Next 3Y1.32%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AL has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.83%.
AL's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 1.89. AL pays more dividend than 80.85% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to the average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.33, AL is paying slightly less dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.83% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AL grows each year by 24.88%, which is quite nice.
AL has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AL has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)24.88%
Div Incr Years11
Div Non Decr Years11
5.3 Sustainability
AL pays out 28.14% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
AL's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP28.14%
EPS Next 2Y-4.95%
EPS Next 3Y1.32%
AIR LEASE CORP
NYSE:AL (1/3/2025, 8:19:21 PM)
After market: 47.78 0 (0%)47.78
-0.18 (-0.38%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCapital Goods
GICS IndustryTrading Companies & Distributors
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners99.11%
Inst Owner Change-0.39%
Ins Owners6.36%
Ins Owner Change-0.36%
Market Cap5.32B
Analysts82.67
Price Target58.72 (22.9%)
Short Float %2.78%
Short Ratio4.39
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.83% |
Dividend Growth(5Y)24.88%
DP28.14%
Div Incr Years11
Div Non Decr Years11
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-6.04%
Min EPS beat(2)-12.72%
Max EPS beat(2)0.65%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)12.08%
Min EPS beat(4)-12.72%
Max EPS beat(4)70.53%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)9.78%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)24.5%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)18.52%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.21%
Min Revenue beat(2)-5.42%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.81%
Min Revenue beat(4)-5.42%
Max Revenue beat(4)4.09%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.23%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.02%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.72%
PT rev (1m)2.2%
PT rev (3m)1.72%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-36.15%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-4.48%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-5.88%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.18%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.88 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.27 | ||
| P/S | 1.94 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 3.11 | ||
| P/B | 0.69 | ||
| P/tB | 0.69 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.96 |
EPS(TTM)4.39
EY9.19%
EPS(NY)4.65
Fwd EY9.74%
FCF(TTM)-22.4
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)15.37
OCFY32.16%
SpS24.58
BVpS68.91
TBVpS68.91
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)4.76
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.52% | ||
| ROE | 6.39% | ||
| ROCE | 4.74% | ||
| ROIC | 3.87% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.93% | ||
| ROICexgc | 4.53% | ||
| OM | 50.82% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 17.91% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.97%
ROA(5y)1.51%
ROE(3y)3.91%
ROE(5y)6.04%
ROIC(3y)3.72%
ROIC(5y)3.95%
ROICexc(3y)3.83%
ROICexc(5y)4.1%
ROICexgc(3y)4.39%
ROICexgc(5y)4.72%
ROCE(3y)4.56%
ROCE(5y)4.85%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-0.15%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-2.85%
ROICexc growth 3Y-0.04%
ROICexc growth 5Y-2.66%
OM growth 3Y-2.25%
OM growth 5Y-2.34%
PM growth 3Y-4.96%
PM growth 5Y-6.84%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.09
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.63 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 8.02 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 374.81% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 153.69% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.85 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 68.1% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.16 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.16 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.45 |
F-Score4
WACC5.89%
ROIC/WACC0.66
Cap/Depr(3y)338.73%
Cap/Depr(5y)361.71%
Cap/Sales(3y)139.4%
Cap/Sales(5y)140.65%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-1.79%
EPS 3Y5.47%
EPS 5Y2.28%
EPS Q2Q%-25.45%
EPS Next Y-34.27%
EPS Next 2Y-4.95%
EPS Next 3Y1.32%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)6.51%
Revenue growth 3Y10.03%
Revenue growth 5Y9.84%
Sales Q2Q%4.67%
Revenue Next Year2.92%
Revenue Next 2Y7.52%
Revenue Next 3Y7.28%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y6.16%
EBIT growth 3Y7.56%
EBIT growth 5Y7.26%
EBIT Next Year121.97%
EBIT Next 3Y36.15%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-37.83%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y21.74%
OCF growth 3Y17.02%
OCF growth 5Y6.85%