ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AGO - BMG0585R1060 - Common Stock
87.66 USD
+0.1 (+0.11%)
87.66 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to AGO. AGO was compared to 146 industry peers in the Insurance industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AGO while its profitability can be described as average. AGO is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AGO was profitable.
AGO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
AGO had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: AGO reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
1.2 Ratios
AGO has a Return On Assets of 3.87%. This is in the better half of the industry: AGO outperforms 76.03% of its industry peers.
AGO's Return On Equity of 8.31% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AGO is outperformed by 60.96% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.87% | ||
| ROE | 8.31% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of AGO (47.61%) is better than 98.63% of its industry peers.
AGO's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 44.96%, AGO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AGO's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 44.96% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 47.61% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AGO has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for AGO has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
AGO has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
AGO has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.46. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as AGO would need 7.46 years to pay back of all of its debts.
AGO has a Debt to FCF ratio of 7.46. This is in the lower half of the industry: AGO underperforms 66.44% of its industry peers.
AGO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.30. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.30, AGO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 54.79% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.46 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AGO have decreased strongly by -30.60% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, AGO shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 12.76% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, AGO shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -23.52% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, AGO shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -6.16% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-30.6%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%6.2%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-23.52%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%-23.42%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 2.77% on average over the next years.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 3.85% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y8.27%
EPS Next 2Y0.88%
EPS Next 3Y2.77%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-7.23%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.21%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 10.92, which indicates a very decent valuation of AGO.
AGO's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
AGO's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 25.91.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.15, AGO is valued correctly.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AGO is on the same level as its industry peers.
AGO is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 34.57, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.92 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.15 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of AGO is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 18.3 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)1.32
PEG (5Y)0.86
EPS Next 2Y0.88%
EPS Next 3Y2.77%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AGO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.55%.
AGO's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 3.46.
Compared to the average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.36, AGO is paying slightly less dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.55% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AGO grows each year by 11.15%, which is quite nice.
AGO has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AGO has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
5.3 Sustainability
14.53% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AGO. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
AGO's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP14.53%
EPS Next 2Y0.88%
EPS Next 3Y2.77%
87.66
+0.1 (+0.11%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners97.76%
Inst Owner Change-1.91%
Ins Owners6.95%
Ins Owner Change-3.8%
Market Cap4.17B
Revenue(TTM)735.00M
Net Income(TTM)468.00M
Analysts77.14
Price Target107.87 (23.05%)
Short Float %2.76%
Short Ratio4.07
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.55% |
Yearly Dividend1.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
DP14.53%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-8.09%
Min EPS beat(2)-34.21%
Max EPS beat(2)18.03%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)13.51%
Min EPS beat(4)-34.21%
Max EPS beat(4)78.01%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)88.58%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)62.88%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)69.11%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)44.09%
Min Revenue beat(2)41.68%
Max Revenue beat(2)46.51%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)25%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.46%
Max Revenue beat(4)46.51%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)11.65%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)7.48%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)5.73%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-0.7%
EPS NQ rev (1m)18.49%
EPS NQ rev (3m)17.5%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-4.19%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)10.42%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)8.31%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-3.21%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.92 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.15 | ||
| P/S | 4.24 | ||
| P/FCF | 18.3 | ||
| P/OCF | 18.3 | ||
| P/B | 0.74 | ||
| P/tB | 0.74 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)8.03
EY9.16%
EPS(NY)7.21
Fwd EY8.23%
FCF(TTM)4.79
FCFY5.47%
OCF(TTM)4.79
OCFY5.47%
SpS20.66
BVpS118.37
TBVpS118.37
PEG (NY)1.32
PEG (5Y)0.86
Graham Number146.24
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.87% | ||
| ROE | 8.31% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | 44.96% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 47.61% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 23.19% |
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)2.3%
ROCE(5y)2.7%
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.08
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.46 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.14 | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | 48.72% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score5
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-30.6%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%6.2%
EPS Next Y8.27%
EPS Next 2Y0.88%
EPS Next 3Y2.77%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-23.52%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%-23.42%
Revenue Next Year-7.23%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.21%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y60.73%
EBIT growth 3Y-18.62%
EBIT growth 5Y-9.27%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y191.57%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y191.57%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD / AGO FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for AGO stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AGO.
What is the valuation status for AGO stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of AGO stock?
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for AGO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) is expected to grow by 8.27% in the next year.
How sustainable is the dividend of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) stock?
The dividend rating of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 14.53%.