ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AGO - BMG0585R1060 - Common Stock
90 USD
-0.39 (-0.43%)
90 USD
0 (0%)
AGO gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 146 industry peers in the Insurance industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AGO while its profitability can be described as average. AGO has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AGO was profitable.
In the past year AGO had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years AGO has been profitable.
In multiple years AGO reported negative operating cash flow during the last 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
AGO has a Return On Assets of 3.33%. This is in the better half of the industry: AGO outperforms 68.24% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Equity value of 7.12%, AGO is not doing good in the industry: 68.24% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.33% | ||
| ROE | 7.12% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AGO has a Profit Margin of 43.95%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AGO outperforms 99.32% of its industry peers.
AGO's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
With an excellent Operating Margin value of 38.28%, AGO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.97% of the companies in the same industry.
AGO's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 38.28% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 43.95% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
Compared to 1 year ago, AGO has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for AGO has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for AGO is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
The Debt to FCF ratio of AGO is 6.40, which is on the high side as it means it would take AGO, 6.40 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AGO (6.40) is worse than 66.89% of its industry peers.
AGO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.30. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
AGO has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.30) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.4 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AGO have decreased strongly by -30.60% in the last year.
AGO shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 12.76% yearly.
Looking at the last year, AGO shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 7.88% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, AGO shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -6.16% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-30.6%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%6.2%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.88%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%-38.29%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AGO will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 3.64% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 3.85% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y15.06%
EPS Next 2Y0.95%
EPS Next 3Y3.64%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-7.23%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.21%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
AGO is valuated reasonably with a Price/Earnings ratio of 11.21.
AGO's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
AGO's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 27.19.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.46, AGO is valued correctly.
AGO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.92, AGO is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.21 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.46 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AGO's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 15.59 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AGO's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)0.74
PEG (5Y)0.88
EPS Next 2Y0.95%
EPS Next 3Y3.64%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.50%, AGO has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
AGO's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 2.42.
AGO's Dividend Yield is slightly below the S&P500 average, which is at 1.92.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.5% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AGO is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 11.15%!
AGO has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AGO has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
5.3 Sustainability
AGO pays out 17.12% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of AGO is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP17.12%
EPS Next 2Y0.95%
EPS Next 3Y3.64%
90
-0.39 (-0.43%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners97.25%
Inst Owner Change0.16%
Ins Owners7.12%
Ins Owner Change-1.4%
Market Cap4.15B
Revenue(TTM)917.00M
Net Income(TTM)403.00M
Analysts77.14
Price Target106.08 (17.87%)
Short Float %2.98%
Short Ratio3.92
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.5% |
Yearly Dividend1.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
DP17.12%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)13.08%
Min EPS beat(2)-34.21%
Max EPS beat(2)60.37%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)9.09%
Min EPS beat(4)-34.21%
Max EPS beat(4)60.37%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)68.16%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)55.58%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)75.83%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)17.64%
Min Revenue beat(2)-11.23%
Max Revenue beat(2)46.51%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)14.12%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.46%
Max Revenue beat(4)46.51%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)9.41%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)9.97%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)6.22%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-1.65%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.42%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)6.27%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-3.57%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.57%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.21 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.46 | ||
| P/S | 4.52 | ||
| P/FCF | 15.59 | ||
| P/OCF | 15.59 | ||
| P/B | 0.73 | ||
| P/tB | 0.73 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)8.03
EY8.92%
EPS(NY)7.22
Fwd EY8.03%
FCF(TTM)5.77
FCFY6.41%
OCF(TTM)5.77
OCFY6.41%
SpS19.9
BVpS122.76
TBVpS122.76
PEG (NY)0.74
PEG (5Y)0.88
Graham Number148.93
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.33% | ||
| ROE | 7.12% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | 38.28% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 43.95% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 29.01% |
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)2.3%
ROCE(5y)2.7%
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.08
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.4 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.13 | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | 66.01% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score5
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-30.6%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%6.2%
EPS Next Y15.06%
EPS Next 2Y0.95%
EPS Next 3Y3.64%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.88%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%-38.29%
Revenue Next Year-7.23%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.21%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-30.91%
EBIT growth 3Y-18.62%
EBIT growth 5Y-9.27%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y171.31%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y171.31%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD / AGO FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for AGO stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AGO.
Can you provide the valuation status for ASSURED GUARANTY LTD?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of AGO stock?
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
How financially healthy is ASSURED GUARANTY LTD?
The financial health rating of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) is 2 / 10.
Is the dividend of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD sustainable?
The dividend rating of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 17.12%.