ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AGO - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - BMG0585R1060 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall AGO gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated AGO against 144 industry peers in the Insurance industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AGO while its profitability can be described as average. AGO has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AGO had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AGO had a positive cash flow from operations.
AGO had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years AGO reported 4 times negative operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
With an excellent Return On Assets value of 5.95%, AGO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 83.10% of the companies in the same industry.
AGO has a Return On Equity of 12.76%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AGO outperforms 54.93% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.95% | ||
| ROE | 12.76% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)2.92%
ROA(5y)2.79%
ROE(3y)7.19%
ROE(5y)6.61%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AGO's Profit Margin of 86.00% is amongst the best of the industry. AGO outperforms 97.18% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AGO has grown nicely.
The Operating Margin of AGO (59.76%) is better than 97.89% of its industry peers.
AGO's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 59.76% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 86% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-16.62%
OM growth 5Y-18.66%
PM growth 3Y27.06%
PM growth 5Y9.34%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AGO has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, AGO has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, AGO has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
AGO has a debt to FCF ratio of 8.32. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as AGO would need 8.32 years to pay back of all of its debts.
AGO has a Debt to FCF ratio of 8.32. This is in the lower half of the industry: AGO underperforms 69.01% of its industry peers.
AGO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.30. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.30, AGO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 57.75% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.32 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 115.86% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 20.26% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 0.47% in the past year.
The Revenue has been decreasing by -1.89% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)115.86%
EPS 3Y53.86%
EPS 5Y20.26%
EPS Q2Q%-29.24%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.47%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.07%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.89%
Sales Q2Q%160%
3.2 Future
AGO is expected to show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will decrease by -4.31% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, AGO will show a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 27.78% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-35.49%
EPS Next 2Y-22.87%
EPS Next 3Y-12.05%
EPS Next 5Y-4.31%
Revenue Next Year138.02%
Revenue Next 2Y53.12%
Revenue Next 3Y33.08%
Revenue Next 5Y27.78%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 8.00 indicates a rather cheap valuation of AGO.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AGO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 73.94% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 28.47, AGO is valued rather cheaply.
AGO is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.28.
AGO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
AGO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 92.74.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.28 |
4.2 Price Multiples
64.08% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than AGO, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 23.09 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AGO's earnings are expected to decrease with -12.05% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.39
EPS Next 2Y-22.87%
EPS Next 3Y-12.05%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.30%, AGO has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
AGO's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 3.13.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.28, AGO's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AGO is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 12.50%!
AGO has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AGO has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)12.5%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
5.3 Sustainability
9.30% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AGO. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP9.3%
EPS Next 2Y-22.87%
EPS Next 3Y-12.05%
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD
NYSE:AGO (2/4/2025, 8:25:38 PM)
After market: 92.54 0 (0%)92.54
-0.17 (-0.18%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners93.87%
Inst Owner Change-10.12%
Ins Owners6.23%
Ins Owner Change-2.63%
Market Cap4.71B
Analysts82.22
Price Target108.63 (17.39%)
Short Float %2.41%
Short Ratio4.58
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
Yearly Dividend1.16
Dividend Growth(5Y)12.5%
DP9.3%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)40.22%
Min EPS beat(2)2.42%
Max EPS beat(2)78.01%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)127.22%
Min EPS beat(4)2.42%
Max EPS beat(4)381.44%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)78.82%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)98.08%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)77.42%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)5.04%
Min Revenue beat(2)-11.36%
Max Revenue beat(2)21.44%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.99%
Min Revenue beat(4)-11.36%
Max Revenue beat(4)21.44%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)6.3%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)2.52%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)4.33%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)5.97%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-2.85%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)13.25%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.98%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.08%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.28 | ||
| P/S | 5.54 | ||
| P/FCF | 23.09 | ||
| P/OCF | 23.09 | ||
| P/B | 0.82 | ||
| P/tB | 0.82 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)11.57
EY12.5%
EPS(NY)6.48
Fwd EY7%
FCF(TTM)4.01
FCFY4.33%
OCF(TTM)4.01
OCFY4.33%
SpS16.7
BVpS112.53
TBVpS112.53
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.39
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.95% | ||
| ROE | 12.76% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | 59.76% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 86% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 24% |
ROA(3y)2.92%
ROA(5y)2.79%
ROE(3y)7.19%
ROE(5y)6.61%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)2.53%
ROCE(5y)2.93%
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-16.62%
OM growth 5Y-18.66%
PM growth 3Y27.06%
PM growth 5Y9.34%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.07
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.32 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.77 | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | 27.91% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score7
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)115.86%
EPS 3Y53.86%
EPS 5Y20.26%
EPS Q2Q%-29.24%
EPS Next Y-35.49%
EPS Next 2Y-22.87%
EPS Next 3Y-12.05%
EPS Next 5Y-4.31%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.47%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.07%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.89%
Sales Q2Q%160%
Revenue Next Year138.02%
Revenue Next 2Y53.12%
Revenue Next 3Y33.08%
Revenue Next 5Y27.78%
EBIT growth 1Y131.96%
EBIT growth 3Y-16.68%
EBIT growth 5Y-20.19%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y110.24%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-0.04%
OCF growth 1Y110.24%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y-0.04%