ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AGO - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - BMG0585R1060 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall AGO gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. We evaluated AGO against 143 industry peers in the Insurance industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AGO while its profitability can be described as average. AGO does not seem to be growing, but still is valued expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AGO had positive earnings in the past year.
AGO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
AGO had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: AGO reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
1.2 Ratios
AGO has a better Return On Assets (3.16%) than 66.43% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Equity value of 6.84%, AGO is not doing good in the industry: 63.64% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.16% | ||
| ROE | 6.84% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AGO has a better Profit Margin (51.16%) than 97.90% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AGO has grown nicely.
AGO has a Operating Margin of 51.70%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AGO outperforms 97.90% of its industry peers.
AGO's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 51.7% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 51.16% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AGO has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
AGO has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
AGO has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
AGO has a debt to FCF ratio of 36.15. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as AGO would need 36.15 years to pay back of all of its debts.
AGO has a Debt to FCF ratio of 36.15. This is in the lower half of the industry: AGO underperforms 75.52% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.31 indicates that AGO is not too dependend on debt financing.
AGO has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.31. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AGO outperforms 54.55% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.31 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 36.15 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AGO shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -34.89%.
Measured over the past years, AGO shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 12.76% on average per year.
The Revenue for AGO has decreased by -11.02% in the past year. This is quite bad
Measured over the past years, AGO shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -6.16% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-34.89%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%-77.91%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-11.02%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%139.76%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 8.80% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
AGO is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 3.85% yearly.
EPS Next Y-8.63%
EPS Next 2Y2.23%
EPS Next 3Y8.8%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-1.48%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.48%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 12.03, the valuation of AGO can be described as correct.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as AGO.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 29.35. AGO is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.16, AGO is valued correctly.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AGO is on the same level as its industry peers.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AGO to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.10), we can say AGO is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.03 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.16 |
4.2 Price Multiples
76.22% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than AGO, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 90.88 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.94
EPS Next 2Y2.23%
EPS Next 3Y8.8%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AGO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.61%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.10, AGO has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
AGO's Dividend Yield is slightly below the S&P500 average, which is at 2.33.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.61% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AGO is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 11.15%!
AGO has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AGO has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
5.3 Sustainability
AGO pays out 18.09% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of AGO is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP18.09%
EPS Next 2Y2.23%
EPS Next 3Y8.8%
85.26
+0.55 (+0.65%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners94.81%
Inst Owner Change-10.06%
Ins Owners6.31%
Ins Owner Change2.35%
Market Cap4.27B
Analysts82.22
Price Target108.63 (27.41%)
Short Float %2.33%
Short Ratio4.23
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.61% |
Yearly Dividend1.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
DP18.09%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)35.1%
Min EPS beat(2)-7.81%
Max EPS beat(2)78.01%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)29.91%
Min EPS beat(4)-7.81%
Max EPS beat(4)78.01%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)87.27%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)65.24%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)76.24%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)10.6%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.25%
Max Revenue beat(2)21.44%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)2.94%
Min Revenue beat(4)-11.36%
Max Revenue beat(4)21.44%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)1.66%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.95%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.01%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.03 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.16 | ||
| P/S | 5.81 | ||
| P/FCF | 90.88 | ||
| P/OCF | 90.88 | ||
| P/B | 0.78 | ||
| P/tB | 0.78 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)7.09
EY8.32%
EPS(NY)6.48
Fwd EY7.6%
FCF(TTM)0.94
FCFY1.1%
OCF(TTM)0.94
OCFY1.1%
SpS14.67
BVpS109.68
TBVpS109.68
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.94
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.16% | ||
| ROE | 6.84% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | 51.7% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 51.16% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 6.39% |
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)2.3%
ROCE(5y)2.7%
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.06
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.31 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 36.15 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.32 | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | 12.5% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score4
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-34.89%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%-77.91%
EPS Next Y-8.63%
EPS Next 2Y2.23%
EPS Next 3Y8.8%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-11.02%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%139.76%
Revenue Next Year-1.48%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.48%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y61.02%
EBIT growth 3Y-18.62%
EBIT growth 5Y-9.27%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-89.8%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-89.8%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A