ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AGO - BMG0585R1060 - Common Stock
87.46 USD
-0.2 (-0.23%)
87.46 USD
0 (0%)
AGO gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 147 industry peers in the Insurance industry. AGO has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. AGO is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AGO had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AGO had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years AGO has always been profitable.
The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: AGO reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
1.2 Ratios
AGO's Return On Assets of 3.87% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AGO outperforms 76.03% of its industry peers.
AGO has a worse Return On Equity (8.31%) than 61.64% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.87% | ||
| ROE | 8.31% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AGO has a Profit Margin of 47.61%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AGO outperforms 98.63% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AGO has grown nicely.
The Operating Margin of AGO (44.96%) is better than 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AGO has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 44.96% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 47.61% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AGO has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
AGO has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AGO has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
The Debt to FCF ratio of AGO is 7.46, which is on the high side as it means it would take AGO, 7.46 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 7.46, AGO is not doing good in the industry: 67.12% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.30 indicates that AGO is not too dependend on debt financing.
AGO has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.30) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.46 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AGO shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -30.60%.
AGO shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 12.76% yearly.
AGO shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -23.52%.
The Revenue has been decreasing by -6.16% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-30.6%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%6.2%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-23.52%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%-23.42%
3.2 Future
AGO is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 2.77% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, AGO will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 3.85% on average per year.
EPS Next Y8.27%
EPS Next 2Y0.88%
EPS Next 3Y2.77%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-7.23%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.21%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 10.89, which indicates a very decent valuation of AGO.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AGO is on the same level as its industry peers.
AGO's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 25.89.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.12 indicates a correct valuation of AGO.
AGO's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 34.59, AGO is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.89 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.12 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as AGO.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 18.26 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)1.32
PEG (5Y)0.85
EPS Next 2Y0.88%
EPS Next 3Y2.77%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AGO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.55%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.52, AGO has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
AGO's Dividend Yield is slightly below the S&P500 average, which is at 2.44.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.55% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AGO grows each year by 11.15%, which is quite nice.
AGO has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AGO has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
5.3 Sustainability
14.53% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AGO. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
AGO's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP14.53%
EPS Next 2Y0.88%
EPS Next 3Y2.77%
87.46
-0.2 (-0.23%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners97.76%
Inst Owner Change-4.57%
Ins Owners6.95%
Ins Owner Change-5.98%
Market Cap4.16B
Revenue(TTM)735.00M
Net Income(TTM)468.00M
Analysts77.14
Price Target107.87 (23.34%)
Short Float %2.76%
Short Ratio4.07
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.55% |
Yearly Dividend1.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
DP14.53%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-8.09%
Min EPS beat(2)-34.21%
Max EPS beat(2)18.03%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)13.51%
Min EPS beat(4)-34.21%
Max EPS beat(4)78.01%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)88.58%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)62.88%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)69.11%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)44.09%
Min Revenue beat(2)41.68%
Max Revenue beat(2)46.51%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)25%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.46%
Max Revenue beat(4)46.51%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)11.65%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)7.48%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)5.73%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-0.7%
EPS NQ rev (1m)18.49%
EPS NQ rev (3m)21.49%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-4.19%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)10.42%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)10.42%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-3.21%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.89 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.12 | ||
| P/S | 4.23 | ||
| P/FCF | 18.26 | ||
| P/OCF | 18.26 | ||
| P/B | 0.74 | ||
| P/tB | 0.74 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)8.03
EY9.18%
EPS(NY)7.21
Fwd EY8.25%
FCF(TTM)4.79
FCFY5.48%
OCF(TTM)4.79
OCFY5.48%
SpS20.66
BVpS118.37
TBVpS118.37
PEG (NY)1.32
PEG (5Y)0.85
Graham Number146.24
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.87% | ||
| ROE | 8.31% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | 44.96% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 47.61% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 23.19% |
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)2.3%
ROCE(5y)2.7%
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.08
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.46 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.14 | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | 48.72% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score5
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-30.6%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%6.2%
EPS Next Y8.27%
EPS Next 2Y0.88%
EPS Next 3Y2.77%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-23.52%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%-23.42%
Revenue Next Year-7.23%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.21%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y60.73%
EBIT growth 3Y-18.62%
EBIT growth 5Y-9.27%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y191.57%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y191.57%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD / AGO FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for AGO stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AGO.
What is the valuation status for AGO stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of AGO stock?
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for AGO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) is expected to grow by 8.27% in the next year.
How sustainable is the dividend of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) stock?
The dividend rating of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 14.53%.