ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AGO - BMG0585R1060 - Common Stock
88.74 USD
-1.13 (-1.26%)
88.74 USD
0 (0%)
Overall AGO gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. We evaluated AGO against 148 industry peers in the Insurance industry. While AGO is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. AGO has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AGO was profitable.
AGO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
AGO had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In multiple years AGO reported negative operating cash flow during the last 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 3.33%, AGO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 68.24% of the companies in the same industry.
AGO's Return On Equity of 7.12% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AGO is outperformed by 68.24% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.33% | ||
| ROE | 7.12% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AGO's Profit Margin of 43.95% is amongst the best of the industry. AGO outperforms 99.32% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AGO has grown nicely.
AGO has a better Operating Margin (38.28%) than 97.97% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AGO has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 38.28% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 43.95% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AGO has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
AGO has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
AGO has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
AGO has a debt to FCF ratio of 6.40. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as AGO would need 6.40 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 6.40, AGO is doing worse than 66.89% of the companies in the same industry.
AGO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.30. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.30, AGO is in line with its industry, outperforming 53.38% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.4 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AGO shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -30.60%.
AGO shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 12.76% yearly.
Looking at the last year, AGO shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 7.88% in the last year.
The Revenue has been decreasing by -6.16% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-30.6%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%6.2%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.88%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%-38.29%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AGO will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 3.64% on average per year.
AGO is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 3.85% yearly.
EPS Next Y15.06%
EPS Next 2Y0.95%
EPS Next 3Y3.64%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-7.23%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.21%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 11.05, the valuation of AGO can be described as reasonable.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as AGO.
AGO is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.60, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.28, AGO is valued correctly.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as AGO.
AGO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 23.23.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.05 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.28 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of AGO is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 15.38 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AGO's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)0.73
PEG (5Y)0.87
EPS Next 2Y0.95%
EPS Next 3Y3.64%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.50%, AGO has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
AGO's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 2.42.
AGO's Dividend Yield is slightly below the S&P500 average, which is at 2.00.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.5% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AGO grows each year by 11.15%, which is quite nice.
AGO has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AGO has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
5.3 Sustainability
17.12% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AGO. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of AGO is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP17.12%
EPS Next 2Y0.95%
EPS Next 3Y3.64%
88.74
-1.13 (-1.26%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners97.61%
Inst Owner Change-4.65%
Ins Owners7.03%
Ins Owner Change-1.43%
Market Cap4.09B
Revenue(TTM)917.00M
Net Income(TTM)403.00M
Analysts77.14
Price Target106.08 (19.54%)
Short Float %2.98%
Short Ratio3.92
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.5% |
Yearly Dividend1.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
DP17.12%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)13.08%
Min EPS beat(2)-34.21%
Max EPS beat(2)60.37%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)9.09%
Min EPS beat(4)-34.21%
Max EPS beat(4)60.37%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)68.16%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)55.58%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)75.83%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)17.64%
Min Revenue beat(2)-11.23%
Max Revenue beat(2)46.51%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)14.12%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.46%
Max Revenue beat(4)46.51%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)9.41%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)9.97%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)6.22%
PT rev (1m)1.63%
PT rev (3m)-1.65%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)8.54%
EPS NY rev (1m)6.27%
EPS NY rev (3m)6.27%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-3.57%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.57%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.05 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.28 | ||
| P/S | 4.46 | ||
| P/FCF | 15.38 | ||
| P/OCF | 15.38 | ||
| P/B | 0.72 | ||
| P/tB | 0.72 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)8.03
EY9.05%
EPS(NY)7.22
Fwd EY8.14%
FCF(TTM)5.77
FCFY6.5%
OCF(TTM)5.77
OCFY6.5%
SpS19.9
BVpS122.76
TBVpS122.76
PEG (NY)0.73
PEG (5Y)0.87
Graham Number148.93
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.33% | ||
| ROE | 7.12% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | 38.28% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 43.95% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 29.01% |
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)2.3%
ROCE(5y)2.7%
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.08
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.4 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.13 | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | 66.01% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score5
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-30.6%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%6.2%
EPS Next Y15.06%
EPS Next 2Y0.95%
EPS Next 3Y3.64%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.88%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%-38.29%
Revenue Next Year-7.23%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.21%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-30.91%
EBIT growth 3Y-18.62%
EBIT growth 5Y-9.27%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y171.31%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y171.31%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD / AGO FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for AGO stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AGO.
Can you provide the valuation status for ASSURED GUARANTY LTD?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of AGO stock?
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
How financially healthy is ASSURED GUARANTY LTD?
The financial health rating of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) is 2 / 10.
Is the dividend of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD sustainable?
The dividend rating of ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 17.12%.