ASSURED GUARANTY LTD (AGO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AGO - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - BMG0585R1060 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall AGO gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. We evaluated AGO against 144 industry peers in the Insurance industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AGO while its profitability can be described as average. AGO has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AGO had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AGO had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years AGO has been profitable.
The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: AGO reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
1.2 Ratios
AGO has a Return On Assets of 3.72%. This is in the better half of the industry: AGO outperforms 77.78% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 7.94%, AGO is in line with its industry, outperforming 40.97% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.72% | ||
| ROE | 7.94% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AGO has a better Profit Margin (50.45%) than 97.92% of its industry peers.
AGO's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
With an excellent Operating Margin value of 54.55%, AGO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.92% of the companies in the same industry.
AGO's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 54.55% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 50.45% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
Compared to 1 year ago, AGO has less shares outstanding
AGO has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AGO has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
AGO has a debt to FCF ratio of 8.17. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as AGO would need 8.17 years to pay back of all of its debts.
AGO's Debt to FCF ratio of 8.17 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AGO is outperformed by 69.44% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.30 indicates that AGO is not too dependend on debt financing.
AGO has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.30) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.17 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AGO have decreased strongly by -29.16% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 12.76% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
AGO shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 9.73%.
Measured over the past years, AGO shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -6.16% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-29.16%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%62.24%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)9.73%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%73.37%
3.2 Future
AGO is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 1.96% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 3.85% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y13%
EPS Next 2Y0.57%
EPS Next 3Y1.96%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-4.16%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.34%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 10.29, which indicates a very decent valuation of AGO.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AGO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AGO is cheaper than 64.58% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.45, AGO is valued rather cheaply.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 11.92, which indicates a very decent valuation of AGO.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as AGO.
AGO is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.90, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.29 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.92 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AGO is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 66.67% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 20.17 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)0.79
PEG (5Y)0.81
EPS Next 2Y0.57%
EPS Next 3Y1.96%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.56%, AGO has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.51, AGO has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
Compared to the average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.42, AGO is paying slightly less dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.56% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AGO grows each year by 11.15%, which is quite nice.
AGO has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AGO has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
5.3 Sustainability
AGO pays out 15.32% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
AGO's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP15.32%
EPS Next 2Y0.57%
EPS Next 3Y1.96%
85.5
+0.53 (+0.62%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners96.71%
Inst Owner Change5.48%
Ins Owners6.88%
Ins Owner Change1.65%
Market Cap4.20B
Analysts82.22
Price Target108.63 (27.05%)
Short Float %2.58%
Short Ratio3.36
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.56% |
Yearly Dividend1.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.15%
DP15.32%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years20
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)5.11%
Min EPS beat(2)-7.81%
Max EPS beat(2)18.03%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)22.66%
Min EPS beat(4)-7.81%
Max EPS beat(4)78.01%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)87.49%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)61.67%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)77.95%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)10.61%
Min Revenue beat(2)-20.46%
Max Revenue beat(2)41.68%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)10.53%
Min Revenue beat(4)-20.46%
Max Revenue beat(4)41.68%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)6.03%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.94%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)3.25%
PT rev (1m)1.11%
PT rev (3m)1.11%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-1.08%
EPS NY rev (1m)4.62%
EPS NY rev (3m)10.94%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.88%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.72%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.29 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.92 | ||
| P/S | 4.77 | ||
| P/FCF | 20.17 | ||
| P/OCF | 20.17 | ||
| P/B | 0.75 | ||
| P/tB | 0.75 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)8.31
EY9.72%
EPS(NY)7.17
Fwd EY8.39%
FCF(TTM)4.24
FCFY4.96%
OCF(TTM)4.24
OCFY4.96%
SpS17.93
BVpS113.92
TBVpS113.92
PEG (NY)0.79
PEG (5Y)0.81
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.72% | ||
| ROE | 7.94% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | 54.55% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 50.45% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 23.64% |
ROA(3y)3.26%
ROA(5y)2.86%
ROE(3y)7.41%
ROE(5y)6.77%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)2.3%
ROCE(5y)2.7%
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-15.59%
OM growth 5Y-3.31%
PM growth 3Y2.55%
PM growth 5Y5.15%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.07
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.17 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.52 | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | 46.85% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score5
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-29.16%
EPS 3Y3.1%
EPS 5Y12.76%
EPS Q2Q%62.24%
EPS Next Y13%
EPS Next 2Y0.57%
EPS Next 3Y1.96%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)9.73%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.58%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.16%
Sales Q2Q%73.37%
Revenue Next Year-4.16%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.34%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y110.53%
EBIT growth 3Y-18.62%
EBIT growth 5Y-9.27%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y116.31%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y116.31%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A