AGNC INVESTMENT CORP (AGNC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:AGNC - Nasdaq - US00123Q1040 - REIT - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to AGNC. AGNC was compared to 65 industry peers in the Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)" industry. While AGNC is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. AGNC has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AGNC was profitable.
AGNC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AGNC reported negative net income in multiple years.
AGNC had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
AGNC has a Return On Assets (0.35%) which is in line with its industry peers.
AGNC has a Return On Equity (3.33%) which is in line with its industry peers.
AGNC's Return On Invested Capital of 0.40% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AGNC outperforms 55.38% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.35% | ||
| ROE | 3.33% | ||
| ROIC | 0.4% |
ROA(3y)-0.54%
ROA(5y)-0.22%
ROE(3y)-2.86%
ROE(5y)-1.11%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AGNC's Profit Margin of 9.46% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AGNC outperforms 64.62% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AGNC has declined.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 13.31%, AGNC is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 67.69% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AGNC has remained more or less at the same level.
AGNC has a Gross Margin (16.54%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
AGNC's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 13.31% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.46% | ||
| GM | 16.54% |
OM growth 3Y-35.43%
OM growth 5Y-1.27%
PM growth 3Y-35.92%
PM growth 5Y-2.73%
GM growth 3Y-35.24%
GM growth 5Y-1.15%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The number of shares outstanding for AGNC has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for AGNC has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
AGNC has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of -1.06, we must say that AGNC is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of -1.06, AGNC is not doing good in the industry: 95.38% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
AGNC has a debt to FCF ratio of 323.18. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as AGNC would need 323.18 years to pay back of all of its debts.
AGNC has a Debt to FCF ratio of 323.18. This is in the lower half of the industry: AGNC underperforms 64.62% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 8.30 is on the high side and indicates that AGNC has dependencies on debt financing.
AGNC's Debt to Equity ratio of 8.30 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AGNC is outperformed by 76.92% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 8.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 323.18 | ||
| Altman-Z | -1.06 |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A
2.3 Liquidity
AGNC has a Current Ratio of 0.02. This is a bad value and indicates that AGNC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 0.02, AGNC is not doing good in the industry: 87.69% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
A Quick Ratio of 0.02 indicates that AGNC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AGNC's Quick ratio of 0.02 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AGNC is outperformed by 87.69% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.02 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.02 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AGNC shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -29.20%.
The Earnings Per Share has been decreasing by -2.52% on average over the past years.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 5.15% in the past year.
AGNC shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 5.98% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-29.2%
EPS 3Y-14.16%
EPS 5Y-2.52%
EPS Q2Q%-24.14%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.15%
Revenue growth 3Y62.37%
Revenue growth 5Y5.98%
Sales Q2Q%630%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -5.57% on average over the next years.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 201.74% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
EPS Next Y-11.35%
EPS Next 2Y-6.96%
EPS Next 3Y-5.57%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year1983.49%
Revenue Next 2Y404.58%
Revenue Next 3Y201.74%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 5.32, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of AGNC.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AGNC is valued cheaper than 93.85% of the companies in the same industry.
AGNC's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 27.28.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 5.70 indicates a rather cheap valuation of AGNC.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AGNC indicates a rather cheap valuation: AGNC is cheaper than 92.31% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.76, AGNC is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.32 | ||
| Fwd PE | 5.7 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as AGNC.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 37.26 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AGNC's earnings are expected to decrease with -5.57% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-6.96%
EPS Next 3Y-5.57%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 15.45%, AGNC is a good candidate for dividend investing.
AGNC's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 11.56. AGNC pays more dividend than 84.62% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.42, AGNC pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 15.45% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AGNC decreases each year by -5.92%.
AGNC has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AGNC has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-5.92%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
395.81% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AGNC. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
AGNC's earnings and Dividend Rate are declining. This means the current dividend is most likely not sustainable.
DP395.81%
EPS Next 2Y-6.96%
EPS Next 3Y-5.57%
9.42
+0.08 (+0.86%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryMortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)"
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners41.88%
Inst Owner Change14.6%
Ins Owners0.38%
Ins Owner Change8.78%
Market Cap9.61B
Analysts78.1
Price Target9.73 (3.29%)
Short Float %4.52%
Short Ratio1.62
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 15.45% |
Yearly Dividend1.56
Dividend Growth(5Y)-5.92%
DP395.81%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-3.53%
Min EPS beat(2)-14.53%
Max EPS beat(2)7.47%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.68%
Min EPS beat(4)-15.95%
Max EPS beat(4)7.47%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-2.58%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)4.43%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)6.38%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-49.72%
Min Revenue beat(2)-52.02%
Max Revenue beat(2)-47.42%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-84.58%
Min Revenue beat(4)-133.13%
Max Revenue beat(4)-47.42%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-97.85%
Revenue beat(12)1
Avg Revenue beat(12)-90.88%
Revenue beat(16)1
Avg Revenue beat(16)-106.22%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-7.34%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)3.79%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)4.4%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)14.96%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)7.45%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.32 | ||
| Fwd PE | 5.7 | ||
| P/S | 2.72 | ||
| P/FCF | 37.26 | ||
| P/OCF | 37.26 | ||
| P/B | 0.96 | ||
| P/tB | 1.01 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)1.77
EY18.79%
EPS(NY)1.65
Fwd EY17.55%
FCF(TTM)0.25
FCFY2.68%
OCF(TTM)0.25
OCFY2.68%
SpS3.46
BVpS9.84
TBVpS9.33
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.35% | ||
| ROE | 3.33% | ||
| ROCE | 4.62% | ||
| ROIC | 0.4% | ||
| ROICexc | 0.4% | ||
| ROICexgc | 0.4% | ||
| OM | 13.31% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.46% | ||
| GM | 16.54% | ||
| FCFM | 7.31% |
ROA(3y)-0.54%
ROA(5y)-0.22%
ROE(3y)-2.86%
ROE(5y)-1.11%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-4.26%
ROICexcg growth 5Y9.59%
ROICexc growth 3Y-4.07%
ROICexc growth 5Y9.52%
OM growth 3Y-35.43%
OM growth 5Y-1.27%
PM growth 3Y-35.92%
PM growth 5Y-2.73%
GM growth 3Y-35.24%
GM growth 5Y-1.15%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.04
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 8.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 323.18 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | 77.25% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.02 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.02 | ||
| Altman-Z | -1.06 |
F-Score4
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-29.2%
EPS 3Y-14.16%
EPS 5Y-2.52%
EPS Q2Q%-24.14%
EPS Next Y-11.35%
EPS Next 2Y-6.96%
EPS Next 3Y-5.57%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.15%
Revenue growth 3Y62.37%
Revenue growth 5Y5.98%
Sales Q2Q%630%
Revenue Next Year1983.49%
Revenue Next 2Y404.58%
Revenue Next 3Y201.74%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-37.25%
EBIT growth 3Y4.84%
EBIT growth 5Y4.64%
EBIT Next Year33.61%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-61.38%
FCF growth 3Y-61.78%
FCF growth 5Y-40.77%
OCF growth 1Y-61.38%
OCF growth 3Y-61.78%
OCF growth 5Y-40.77%