AFLAC INC (AFL) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AFL - US0010551028 - Common Stock
109.9 USD
-0.72 (-0.65%)
109.4 USD
-0.5 (-0.45%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to AFL. AFL was compared to 148 industry peers in the Insurance industry. While AFL is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. While showing a medium growth rate, AFL is valued expensive at the moment.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AFL was profitable.
In the past year AFL had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years AFL has been profitable.
In the past 5 years AFL always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of AFL (3.41%) is better than 68.92% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 14.53%, AFL is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 68.24% of the companies in the same industry.
AFL has a Return On Invested Capital of 3.81%. This is in the better half of the industry: AFL outperforms 64.86% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for AFL is significantly below the industry average of 14.88%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.41% | ||
| ROE | 14.53% | ||
| ROIC | 3.81% |
ROA(3y)3.83%
ROA(5y)3.43%
ROE(3y)20.97%
ROE(5y)18.03%
ROIC(3y)3.95%
ROIC(5y)3.48%
1.3 Margins
AFL has a better Profit Margin (23.55%) than 94.59% of its industry peers.
AFL's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
AFL's Operating Margin of 29.97% is amongst the best of the industry. AFL outperforms 91.89% of its industry peers.
AFL's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 29.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 23.55% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y11.49%
OM growth 5Y10.66%
PM growth 3Y13.73%
PM growth 5Y14.22%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AFL is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, AFL has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, AFL has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for AFL is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
The Debt to FCF ratio of AFL is 3.34, which is a good value as it means it would take AFL, 3.34 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AFL (3.34) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.30 indicates that AFL is not too dependend on debt financing.
AFL has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.30) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.34 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACC0.47
WACC8.03%
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 8.70% over the past year.
Measured over the past years, AFL shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 10.21% on average per year.
AFL shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 2.32%.
Measured over the past years, AFL shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -3.26% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)8.7%
EPS 3Y6.78%
EPS 5Y10.21%
EPS Q2Q%15.28%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.32%
Revenue growth 3Y-5.07%
Revenue growth 5Y-3.26%
Sales Q2Q%60.73%
3.2 Future
AFL is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 4.12% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, AFL will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 1.93% on average per year.
EPS Next Y5.24%
EPS Next 2Y1.56%
EPS Next 3Y3.01%
EPS Next 5Y4.12%
Revenue Next Year0.58%
Revenue Next 2Y0.75%
Revenue Next 3Y0.94%
Revenue Next 5Y1.93%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 14.65 indicates a correct valuation of AFL.
AFL's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
AFL is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.92, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
AFL is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.76.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AFL indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: AFL is more expensive than 60.14% of the companies listed in the same industry.
AFL's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 23.46.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.65 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.76 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AFL's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
64.19% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than AFL, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 22.39 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.63 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
AFL has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)2.8
PEG (5Y)1.43
EPS Next 2Y1.56%
EPS Next 3Y3.01%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AFL has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.21%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.42, AFL pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
AFL's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.00.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.21% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AFL grows each year by 13.11%, which is quite nice.
AFL has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AFL has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.11%
Div Incr Years34
Div Non Decr Years34
5.3 Sustainability
28.14% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AFL. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of AFL is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP28.14%
EPS Next 2Y1.56%
EPS Next 3Y3.01%
109.9
-0.72 (-0.65%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners58.96%
Inst Owner Change-3.33%
Ins Owners0.81%
Ins Owner Change-4.24%
Market Cap57.60B
Revenue(TTM)17.70B
Net Income(TTM)4.17B
Analysts66.67
Price Target112.67 (2.52%)
Short Float %1.45%
Short Ratio3.17
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.21% |
Yearly Dividend1.93
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.11%
DP28.14%
Div Incr Years34
Div Non Decr Years34
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)21.27%
Min EPS beat(2)3.7%
Max EPS beat(2)38.84%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)9.18%
Min EPS beat(4)-4.02%
Max EPS beat(4)38.84%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)8.24%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)10.33%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)8.31%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.13%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.81%
Max Revenue beat(2)7.07%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)2.34%
Min Revenue beat(4)-21.36%
Max Revenue beat(4)28.46%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.43%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.66%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)2.22%
PT rev (1m)-0.28%
PT rev (3m)1.57%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.1%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.31%
EPS NY rev (1m)9.11%
EPS NY rev (3m)9.49%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.3%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.25%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-2.67%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.91%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.65 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.76 | ||
| P/S | 3.25 | ||
| P/FCF | 22.39 | ||
| P/OCF | 22.39 | ||
| P/B | 2.01 | ||
| P/tB | 2.01 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.63 |
EPS(TTM)7.5
EY6.82%
EPS(NY)7.45
Fwd EY6.78%
FCF(TTM)4.91
FCFY4.47%
OCF(TTM)4.91
OCFY4.47%
SpS33.77
BVpS54.74
TBVpS54.74
PEG (NY)2.8
PEG (5Y)1.43
Graham Number96.11
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.41% | ||
| ROE | 14.53% | ||
| ROCE | 4.39% | ||
| ROIC | 3.81% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.03% | ||
| ROICexgc | 4.12% | ||
| OM | 29.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 23.55% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 14.54% |
ROA(3y)3.83%
ROA(5y)3.43%
ROE(3y)20.97%
ROE(5y)18.03%
ROIC(3y)3.95%
ROIC(5y)3.48%
ROICexc(3y)4.12%
ROICexc(5y)3.62%
ROICexgc(3y)4.23%
ROICexgc(5y)3.71%
ROCE(3y)4.56%
ROCE(5y)4.02%
ROICexgc growth 3Y16.53%
ROICexgc growth 5Y12.62%
ROICexc growth 3Y16.64%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.6%
OM growth 3Y11.49%
OM growth 5Y10.66%
PM growth 3Y13.73%
PM growth 5Y14.22%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.14
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.34 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.39 | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 28.52 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 41.68% | ||
| Profit Quality | 61.72% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score7
WACC8.03%
ROIC/WACC0.47
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)70.18%
Profit Quality(5y)90.4%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)8.7%
EPS 3Y6.78%
EPS 5Y10.21%
EPS Q2Q%15.28%
EPS Next Y5.24%
EPS Next 2Y1.56%
EPS Next 3Y3.01%
EPS Next 5Y4.12%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.32%
Revenue growth 3Y-5.07%
Revenue growth 5Y-3.26%
Sales Q2Q%60.73%
Revenue Next Year0.58%
Revenue Next 2Y0.75%
Revenue Next 3Y0.94%
Revenue Next 5Y1.93%
EBIT growth 1Y11.33%
EBIT growth 3Y5.83%
EBIT growth 5Y7.05%
EBIT Next Year-7.19%
EBIT Next 3Y-1.6%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-24.1%
FCF growth 3Y-18.77%
FCF growth 5Y-13.08%
OCF growth 1Y-24.1%
OCF growth 3Y-18.77%
OCF growth 5Y-13.08%
AFLAC INC / AFL FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of AFLAC INC (AFL) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AFL.
What is the valuation status of AFLAC INC (AFL) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to AFLAC INC (AFL). This can be considered as Overvalued.
What is the profitability of AFL stock?
AFLAC INC (AFL) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of AFLAC INC (AFL) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for AFLAC INC (AFL) is 14.65 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.01.
What is the earnings growth outlook for AFLAC INC?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of AFLAC INC (AFL) is expected to grow by 5.24% in the next year.