AFLAC INC (AFL) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AFL - US0010551028 - Common Stock
109.28 USD
+0.04 (+0.04%)
109.28 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to AFL. AFL was compared to 148 industry peers in the Insurance industry. AFL scores excellent on profitability, but there are concerns on its financial health. AFL is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AFL had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AFL had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years AFL has always been profitable.
In the past 5 years AFL always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
With a decent Return On Assets value of 3.41%, AFL is doing good in the industry, outperforming 67.57% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 14.53%, AFL is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 66.89% of the companies in the same industry.
AFL has a Return On Invested Capital of 3.81%. This is in the better half of the industry: AFL outperforms 64.86% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for AFL is in line with the industry average of 4.57%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.41% | ||
| ROE | 14.53% | ||
| ROIC | 3.81% |
ROA(3y)3.83%
ROA(5y)3.43%
ROE(3y)20.97%
ROE(5y)18.03%
ROIC(3y)3.95%
ROIC(5y)3.48%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 23.55%, AFL belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 93.24% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AFL has grown nicely.
With an excellent Operating Margin value of 29.97%, AFL belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 94.59% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AFL has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 29.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 23.55% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y11.49%
OM growth 5Y10.66%
PM growth 3Y13.73%
PM growth 5Y14.22%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AFL is destroying value.
AFL has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, AFL has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for AFL is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
AFL has a debt to FCF ratio of 3.34. This is a good value and a sign of high solvency as AFL would need 3.34 years to pay back of all of its debts.
AFL has a Debt to FCF ratio (3.34) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
AFL has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.30. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
AFL has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.30. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AFL outperforms 53.38% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.34 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACC0.48
WACC8%
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AFL shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 8.70%, which is quite good.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 10.21% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
Looking at the last year, AFL shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 2.32% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, AFL shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -3.26% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)8.7%
EPS 3Y6.78%
EPS 5Y10.21%
EPS Q2Q%15.28%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.32%
Revenue growth 3Y-5.07%
Revenue growth 5Y-3.26%
Sales Q2Q%60.73%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AFL will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 4.12% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, AFL will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 1.93% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-3.55%
EPS Next 2Y1.32%
EPS Next 3Y2.63%
EPS Next 5Y4.12%
Revenue Next Year3.34%
Revenue Next 2Y1.36%
Revenue Next 3Y1.6%
Revenue Next 5Y1.93%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 14.57, the valuation of AFL can be described as correct.
60.14% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than AFL, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
AFL's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 26.46.
AFL is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.74.
AFL's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit more expensive when compared to the industry. AFL is more expensive than 64.19% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 36.10. AFL is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.57 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.74 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AFL's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
AFL's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit more expensive when compared to the industry. AFL is more expensive than 65.54% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 22.26 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.57 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The decent profitability rating of AFL may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.43
EPS Next 2Y1.32%
EPS Next 3Y2.63%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AFL has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.21%.
AFL's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 3.32.
AFL's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.32.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.21% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AFL is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 13.11%!
AFL has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AFL has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.11%
Div Incr Years34
Div Non Decr Years34
5.3 Sustainability
28.14% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AFL. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of AFL is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP28.14%
EPS Next 2Y1.32%
EPS Next 3Y2.63%
109.28
+0.04 (+0.04%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners59.68%
Inst Owner Change-3.36%
Ins Owners0.8%
Ins Owner Change-0.37%
Market Cap57.27B
Revenue(TTM)17.70B
Net Income(TTM)4.17B
Analysts66.67
Price Target112.99 (3.39%)
Short Float %1.49%
Short Ratio3.33
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.21% |
Yearly Dividend1.93
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.11%
DP28.14%
Div Incr Years34
Div Non Decr Years34
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)21.27%
Min EPS beat(2)3.7%
Max EPS beat(2)38.84%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)9.18%
Min EPS beat(4)-4.02%
Max EPS beat(4)38.84%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)8.24%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)10.33%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)8.31%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.13%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.81%
Max Revenue beat(2)7.07%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)2.34%
Min Revenue beat(4)-21.36%
Max Revenue beat(4)28.46%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.43%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.66%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)2.22%
PT rev (1m)1.86%
PT rev (3m)2.09%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.66%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.7%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.94%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-1.18%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.15%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.01%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.21%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.57 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.74 | ||
| P/S | 3.24 | ||
| P/FCF | 22.26 | ||
| P/OCF | 22.26 | ||
| P/B | 2 | ||
| P/tB | 2 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.57 |
EPS(TTM)7.5
EY6.86%
EPS(NY)7.41
Fwd EY6.78%
FCF(TTM)4.91
FCFY4.49%
OCF(TTM)4.91
OCFY4.49%
SpS33.77
BVpS54.74
TBVpS54.74
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.43
Graham Number96.11
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.41% | ||
| ROE | 14.53% | ||
| ROCE | 4.39% | ||
| ROIC | 3.81% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.03% | ||
| ROICexgc | 4.12% | ||
| OM | 29.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 23.55% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 14.54% |
ROA(3y)3.83%
ROA(5y)3.43%
ROE(3y)20.97%
ROE(5y)18.03%
ROIC(3y)3.95%
ROIC(5y)3.48%
ROICexc(3y)4.12%
ROICexc(5y)3.62%
ROICexgc(3y)4.23%
ROICexgc(5y)3.71%
ROCE(3y)4.56%
ROCE(5y)4.02%
ROICexgc growth 3Y16.53%
ROICexgc growth 5Y12.62%
ROICexc growth 3Y16.64%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.6%
OM growth 3Y11.49%
OM growth 5Y10.66%
PM growth 3Y13.73%
PM growth 5Y14.22%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.14
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.34 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.39 | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 28.52 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 41.68% | ||
| Profit Quality | 61.72% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score7
WACC8%
ROIC/WACC0.48
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)70.18%
Profit Quality(5y)90.4%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)8.7%
EPS 3Y6.78%
EPS 5Y10.21%
EPS Q2Q%15.28%
EPS Next Y-3.55%
EPS Next 2Y1.32%
EPS Next 3Y2.63%
EPS Next 5Y4.12%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.32%
Revenue growth 3Y-5.07%
Revenue growth 5Y-3.26%
Sales Q2Q%60.73%
Revenue Next Year3.34%
Revenue Next 2Y1.36%
Revenue Next 3Y1.6%
Revenue Next 5Y1.93%
EBIT growth 1Y11.33%
EBIT growth 3Y5.83%
EBIT growth 5Y7.05%
EBIT Next Year-7.19%
EBIT Next 3Y-1.6%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-24.1%
FCF growth 3Y-18.77%
FCF growth 5Y-13.08%
OCF growth 1Y-24.1%
OCF growth 3Y-18.77%
OCF growth 5Y-13.08%
AFLAC INC / AFL FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of AFLAC INC (AFL) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to AFL.
What is the valuation status of AFLAC INC (AFL) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to AFLAC INC (AFL). This can be considered as Overvalued.
What is the profitability of AFL stock?
AFLAC INC (AFL) has a profitability rating of 7 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of AFLAC INC (AFL) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for AFLAC INC (AFL) is 14.57 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.
What is the earnings growth outlook for AFLAC INC?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of AFLAC INC (AFL) is expected to decline by -3.55% in the next year.