AFLAC INC (AFL) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AFL - US0010551028 - Common Stock
114.34 USD
-0.67 (-0.58%)
114.32 USD
-0.02 (-0.02%)
Taking everything into account, AFL scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AFL was compared to 146 industry peers in the Insurance industry. AFL scores excellent on profitability, but there are concerns on its financial health. AFL is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AFL had positive earnings in the past year.
AFL had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years AFL has been profitable.
AFL had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 3.41%, AFL is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 69.18% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Equity of AFL (14.53%) is better than 67.12% of its industry peers.
AFL has a better Return On Invested Capital (3.81%) than 66.44% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for AFL is in line with the industry average of 4.51%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.41% | ||
| ROE | 14.53% | ||
| ROIC | 3.81% |
ROA(3y)3.83%
ROA(5y)3.43%
ROE(3y)20.97%
ROE(5y)18.03%
ROIC(3y)3.95%
ROIC(5y)3.48%
1.3 Margins
AFL's Profit Margin of 23.55% is amongst the best of the industry. AFL outperforms 93.84% of its industry peers.
AFL's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
AFL has a Operating Margin of 29.97%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AFL outperforms 95.89% of its industry peers.
AFL's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 29.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 23.55% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y11.49%
OM growth 5Y10.66%
PM growth 3Y13.73%
PM growth 5Y14.22%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AFL is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AFL has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for AFL has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AFL has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
The Debt to FCF ratio of AFL is 3.34, which is a good value as it means it would take AFL, 3.34 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
AFL has a Debt to FCF ratio of 3.34. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AFL outperforms 48.63% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.30 indicates that AFL is not too dependend on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.30, AFL perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 55.48% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.34 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACC0.47
WACC8.04%
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AFL shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 8.70%, which is quite good.
AFL shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 10.21% yearly.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 2.32% in the past year.
The Revenue has been decreasing by -3.26% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)8.7%
EPS 3Y6.78%
EPS 5Y10.21%
EPS Q2Q%15.28%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.32%
Revenue growth 3Y-5.07%
Revenue growth 5Y-3.26%
Sales Q2Q%60.73%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AFL will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 3.96% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 2.42% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-3.55%
EPS Next 2Y1.32%
EPS Next 3Y2.63%
EPS Next 5Y3.96%
Revenue Next Year3.34%
Revenue Next 2Y1.36%
Revenue Next 3Y1.6%
Revenue Next 5Y2.42%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 15.25 indicates a correct valuation of AFL.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as AFL.
AFL's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 25.89.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.43, the valuation of AFL can be described as correct.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AFL is valued a bit more expensive than 62.33% of the companies in the same industry.
AFL's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 34.59.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15.25 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.43 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as AFL.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AFL is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 65.07% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 23.77 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.26 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The decent profitability rating of AFL may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.49
EPS Next 2Y1.32%
EPS Next 3Y2.63%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AFL has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.13%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.47, AFL has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
AFL's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.36.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.13% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AFL grows each year by 13.11%, which is quite nice.
AFL has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AFL has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.11%
Div Incr Years34
Div Non Decr Years34
5.3 Sustainability
28.14% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AFL. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
AFL's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP28.14%
EPS Next 2Y1.32%
EPS Next 3Y2.63%
114.34
-0.67 (-0.58%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners59.68%
Inst Owner Change-1.58%
Ins Owners0.8%
Ins Owner Change-0.73%
Market Cap61.15B
Revenue(TTM)17.70B
Net Income(TTM)4.17B
Analysts66.67
Price Target112.71 (-1.43%)
Short Float %1.32%
Short Ratio2.78
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.13% |
Yearly Dividend1.93
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.11%
DP28.14%
Div Incr Years34
Div Non Decr Years34
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)21.27%
Min EPS beat(2)3.7%
Max EPS beat(2)38.84%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)9.18%
Min EPS beat(4)-4.02%
Max EPS beat(4)38.84%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)8.24%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)10.33%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)8.31%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.13%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.81%
Max Revenue beat(2)7.07%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)2.34%
Min Revenue beat(4)-21.36%
Max Revenue beat(4)28.46%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.43%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.66%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)2.22%
PT rev (1m)1.61%
PT rev (3m)2.47%
EPS NQ rev (1m)1.39%
EPS NQ rev (3m)3.35%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.35%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.77%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.29%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.26%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.24%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.69%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15.25 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.43 | ||
| P/S | 3.45 | ||
| P/FCF | 23.77 | ||
| P/OCF | 23.77 | ||
| P/B | 2.13 | ||
| P/tB | 2.13 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.26 |
EPS(TTM)7.5
EY6.56%
EPS(NY)7.41
Fwd EY6.48%
FCF(TTM)4.81
FCFY4.21%
OCF(TTM)4.81
OCFY4.21%
SpS33.1
BVpS53.64
TBVpS53.64
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.49
Graham Number95.14
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.41% | ||
| ROE | 14.53% | ||
| ROCE | 4.39% | ||
| ROIC | 3.81% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.03% | ||
| ROICexgc | 4.12% | ||
| OM | 29.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 23.55% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 14.54% |
ROA(3y)3.83%
ROA(5y)3.43%
ROE(3y)20.97%
ROE(5y)18.03%
ROIC(3y)3.95%
ROIC(5y)3.48%
ROICexc(3y)4.12%
ROICexc(5y)3.62%
ROICexgc(3y)4.23%
ROICexgc(5y)3.71%
ROCE(3y)4.56%
ROCE(5y)4.02%
ROICexgc growth 3Y16.53%
ROICexgc growth 5Y12.62%
ROICexc growth 3Y16.64%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.6%
OM growth 3Y11.49%
OM growth 5Y10.66%
PM growth 3Y13.73%
PM growth 5Y14.22%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.14
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.34 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.39 | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 28.52 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 41.68% | ||
| Profit Quality | 61.72% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score7
WACC8.04%
ROIC/WACC0.47
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)70.18%
Profit Quality(5y)90.4%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)8.7%
EPS 3Y6.78%
EPS 5Y10.21%
EPS Q2Q%15.28%
EPS Next Y-3.55%
EPS Next 2Y1.32%
EPS Next 3Y2.63%
EPS Next 5Y3.96%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.32%
Revenue growth 3Y-5.07%
Revenue growth 5Y-3.26%
Sales Q2Q%60.73%
Revenue Next Year3.34%
Revenue Next 2Y1.36%
Revenue Next 3Y1.6%
Revenue Next 5Y2.42%
EBIT growth 1Y11.33%
EBIT growth 3Y5.83%
EBIT growth 5Y7.05%
EBIT Next Year-7.19%
EBIT Next 3Y-1.6%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-24.1%
FCF growth 3Y-18.77%
FCF growth 5Y-13.08%
OCF growth 1Y-24.1%
OCF growth 3Y-18.77%
OCF growth 5Y-13.08%
AFLAC INC / AFL FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of AFLAC INC (AFL) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to AFL.
What is the valuation status of AFLAC INC (AFL) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to AFLAC INC (AFL). This can be considered as Overvalued.
What is the profitability of AFL stock?
AFLAC INC (AFL) has a profitability rating of 7 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of AFLAC INC (AFL) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for AFLAC INC (AFL) is 15.25 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.13.
What is the earnings growth outlook for AFLAC INC?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of AFLAC INC (AFL) is expected to decline by -3.55% in the next year.