AFLAC INC (AFL) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AFL - US0010551028 - Common Stock
111.24 USD
+2.43 (+2.23%)
111.24 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to AFL. AFL was compared to 146 industry peers in the Insurance industry. While AFL is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. AFL is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AFL had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AFL had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years AFL has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years AFL had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
AFL has a Return On Assets (1.95%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Return On Equity of AFL (8.96%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
AFL's Return On Invested Capital of 2.38% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AFL outperforms 49.32% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for AFL is in line with the industry average of 4.53%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.95% | ||
| ROE | 8.96% | ||
| ROIC | 2.38% |
ROA(3y)3.83%
ROA(5y)3.43%
ROE(3y)20.97%
ROE(5y)18.03%
ROIC(3y)3.95%
ROIC(5y)3.48%
1.3 Margins
With an excellent Profit Margin value of 15.32%, AFL belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 81.51% of the companies in the same industry.
AFL's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
AFL has a Operating Margin of 21.35%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AFL outperforms 82.88% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AFL has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 21.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.32% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y11.49%
OM growth 5Y10.66%
PM growth 3Y13.73%
PM growth 5Y14.22%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AFL has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, AFL has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for AFL has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
AFL has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
AFL has a debt to FCF ratio of 3.41. This is a good value and a sign of high solvency as AFL would need 3.41 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 3.41, AFL perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 46.58% of the companies in the same industry.
AFL has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.32. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
AFL has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.32) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.32 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.41 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACC0.3
WACC8.03%
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AFL shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 8.70%, which is quite good.
Measured over the past years, AFL shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 10.21% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, AFL shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 1.21% in the last year.
The Revenue has been decreasing by -3.26% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)8.7%
EPS 3Y6.78%
EPS 5Y10.21%
EPS Q2Q%15.28%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.21%
Revenue growth 3Y-5.07%
Revenue growth 5Y-3.26%
Sales Q2Q%60.73%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AFL will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 3.96% on average per year.
AFL is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 2.42% yearly.
EPS Next Y-3.55%
EPS Next 2Y1.32%
EPS Next 3Y2.63%
EPS Next 5Y3.96%
Revenue Next Year3.34%
Revenue Next 2Y1.36%
Revenue Next 3Y1.6%
Revenue Next 5Y2.42%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 14.83, the valuation of AFL can be described as correct.
AFL's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.03. AFL is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
AFL is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.01.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AFL indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: AFL is more expensive than 62.33% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.27. AFL is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.83 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.01 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AFL's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AFL is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 61.64% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 22.96 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.1 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The decent profitability rating of AFL may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.45
EPS Next 2Y1.32%
EPS Next 3Y2.63%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AFL has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.13%.
AFL's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 3.27.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.38, AFL has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.13% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AFL grows each year by 13.11%, which is quite nice.
AFL has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AFL has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.11%
Div Incr Years34
Div Non Decr Years34
5.3 Sustainability
AFL pays out 46.94% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
The dividend of AFL is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP46.94%
EPS Next 2Y1.32%
EPS Next 3Y2.63%
111.24
+2.43 (+2.23%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners59.68%
Inst Owner Change-0.9%
Ins Owners0.8%
Ins Owner Change-0.48%
Market Cap59.49B
Revenue(TTM)18.93B
Net Income(TTM)2.44B
Analysts66.67
Price Target112.71 (1.32%)
Short Float %1.32%
Short Ratio2.78
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.13% |
Yearly Dividend1.93
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.11%
DP46.94%
Div Incr Years34
Div Non Decr Years34
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)0.95%
Min EPS beat(2)-1.8%
Max EPS beat(2)3.7%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)6.2%
Min EPS beat(4)-4.02%
Max EPS beat(4)26.91%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)6.14%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)6.57%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)6.81%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-13.08%
Min Revenue beat(2)-21.36%
Max Revenue beat(2)-4.81%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-7.93%
Min Revenue beat(4)-34%
Max Revenue beat(4)28.46%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.84%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.24%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.59%
PT rev (1m)1.61%
PT rev (3m)2.31%
EPS NQ rev (1m)1.21%
EPS NQ rev (3m)3.17%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.35%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.77%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.29%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.26%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.25%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.69%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.83 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.01 | ||
| P/S | 3.74 | ||
| P/FCF | 22.96 | ||
| P/OCF | 22.96 | ||
| P/B | 2.19 | ||
| P/tB | 2.19 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.1 |
EPS(TTM)7.5
EY6.74%
EPS(NY)7.41
Fwd EY6.66%
FCF(TTM)4.84
FCFY4.36%
OCF(TTM)4.84
OCFY4.36%
SpS29.75
BVpS50.86
TBVpS50.86
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.45
Graham Number92.64
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.95% | ||
| ROE | 8.96% | ||
| ROCE | 2.74% | ||
| ROIC | 2.38% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.52% | ||
| ROICexgc | 2.57% | ||
| OM | 21.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.32% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 16.29% |
ROA(3y)3.83%
ROA(5y)3.43%
ROE(3y)20.97%
ROE(5y)18.03%
ROIC(3y)3.95%
ROIC(5y)3.48%
ROICexc(3y)4.12%
ROICexc(5y)3.62%
ROICexgc(3y)4.23%
ROICexgc(5y)3.71%
ROCE(3y)4.56%
ROCE(5y)4.02%
ROICexgc growth 3Y16.53%
ROICexgc growth 5Y12.62%
ROICexc growth 3Y16.64%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.6%
OM growth 3Y11.49%
OM growth 5Y10.66%
PM growth 3Y13.73%
PM growth 5Y14.22%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.13
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.32 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.41 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.06 | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 18.36 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 60.82% | ||
| Profit Quality | 106.32% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score5
WACC8.03%
ROIC/WACC0.3
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)70.18%
Profit Quality(5y)90.4%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)8.7%
EPS 3Y6.78%
EPS 5Y10.21%
EPS Q2Q%15.28%
EPS Next Y-3.55%
EPS Next 2Y1.32%
EPS Next 3Y2.63%
EPS Next 5Y3.96%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.21%
Revenue growth 3Y-5.07%
Revenue growth 5Y-3.26%
Sales Q2Q%60.73%
Revenue Next Year3.34%
Revenue Next 2Y1.36%
Revenue Next 3Y1.6%
Revenue Next 5Y2.42%
EBIT growth 1Y-47.57%
EBIT growth 3Y5.83%
EBIT growth 5Y7.05%
EBIT Next Year-7.19%
EBIT Next 3Y-1.6%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-18.93%
FCF growth 3Y-18.77%
FCF growth 5Y-13.08%
OCF growth 1Y-18.93%
OCF growth 3Y-18.77%
OCF growth 5Y-13.08%
AFLAC INC / AFL FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of AFLAC INC (AFL) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AFL.
What is the valuation status of AFLAC INC (AFL) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to AFLAC INC (AFL). This can be considered as Overvalued.
What is the profitability of AFL stock?
AFLAC INC (AFL) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of AFLAC INC (AFL) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for AFLAC INC (AFL) is 14.83 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.19.
What is the earnings growth outlook for AFLAC INC?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of AFLAC INC (AFL) is expected to decline by -3.55% in the next year.