AFLAC INC (AFL) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AFL - US0010551028 - Common Stock
109.24 USD
-1.02 (-0.93%)
108.93 USD
-0.31 (-0.28%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to AFL. AFL was compared to 146 industry peers in the Insurance industry. AFL has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. AFL is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AFL was profitable.
In the past year AFL had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years AFL has been profitable.
AFL had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
AFL's Return On Assets of 3.41% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AFL outperforms 69.59% of its industry peers.
AFL has a better Return On Equity (14.53%) than 68.92% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of AFL (3.81%) is better than 65.54% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for AFL is significantly below the industry average of 15.11%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.41% | ||
| ROE | 14.53% | ||
| ROIC | 3.81% |
ROA(3y)3.83%
ROA(5y)3.43%
ROE(3y)20.97%
ROE(5y)18.03%
ROIC(3y)3.95%
ROIC(5y)3.48%
1.3 Margins
AFL has a Profit Margin of 23.55%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AFL outperforms 94.59% of its industry peers.
AFL's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 29.97%, AFL belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 91.89% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AFL has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 29.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 23.55% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y11.49%
OM growth 5Y10.66%
PM growth 3Y13.73%
PM growth 5Y14.22%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AFL is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AFL has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, AFL has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for AFL is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
The Debt to FCF ratio of AFL is 3.34, which is a good value as it means it would take AFL, 3.34 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
AFL has a Debt to FCF ratio (3.34) which is in line with its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.30 indicates that AFL is not too dependend on debt financing.
AFL has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.30) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.34 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACC0.47
WACC8.06%
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AFL shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 8.70%, which is quite good.
Measured over the past years, AFL shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 10.21% on average per year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 2.32% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, AFL shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -3.26% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)8.7%
EPS 3Y6.78%
EPS 5Y10.21%
EPS Q2Q%15.28%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.32%
Revenue growth 3Y-5.07%
Revenue growth 5Y-3.26%
Sales Q2Q%60.73%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 4.12% on average over the next years.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 1.93% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y5.24%
EPS Next 2Y1.56%
EPS Next 3Y3.01%
EPS Next 5Y4.12%
Revenue Next Year0.58%
Revenue Next 2Y0.75%
Revenue Next 3Y0.94%
Revenue Next 5Y1.93%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 14.57, which indicates a correct valuation of AFL.
AFL's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
AFL's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 27.19.
AFL is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.67.
61.49% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than AFL, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 23.92. AFL is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.57 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.67 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as AFL.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AFL is valued a bit more expensive than 64.19% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 22.25 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.57 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
AFL has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)2.78
PEG (5Y)1.43
EPS Next 2Y1.56%
EPS Next 3Y3.01%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AFL has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.21%.
AFL's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 2.42.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.92, AFL has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.21% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AFL grows each year by 13.11%, which is quite nice.
AFL has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AFL has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.11%
Div Incr Years34
Div Non Decr Years34
5.3 Sustainability
AFL pays out 28.14% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of AFL is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP28.14%
EPS Next 2Y1.56%
EPS Next 3Y3.01%
109.24
-1.02 (-0.93%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners58.94%
Inst Owner Change0.13%
Ins Owners0.78%
Ins Owner Change-4.7%
Market Cap57.25B
Revenue(TTM)17.70B
Net Income(TTM)4.17B
Analysts55.24
Price Target112.67 (3.14%)
Short Float %1.38%
Short Ratio2.78
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.21% |
Yearly Dividend1.93
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.11%
DP28.14%
Div Incr Years34
Div Non Decr Years34
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)21.27%
Min EPS beat(2)3.7%
Max EPS beat(2)38.84%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)9.18%
Min EPS beat(4)-4.02%
Max EPS beat(4)38.84%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)8.24%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)10.33%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)8.31%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.13%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.81%
Max Revenue beat(2)7.07%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)2.34%
Min Revenue beat(4)-21.36%
Max Revenue beat(4)28.46%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.43%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.66%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)2.22%
PT rev (1m)-0.34%
PT rev (3m)1.57%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.12%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.33%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.08%
EPS NY rev (3m)9.49%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.25%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.91%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.57 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.67 | ||
| P/S | 3.23 | ||
| P/FCF | 22.25 | ||
| P/OCF | 22.25 | ||
| P/B | 2 | ||
| P/tB | 2 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.57 |
EPS(TTM)7.5
EY6.87%
EPS(NY)7.45
Fwd EY6.82%
FCF(TTM)4.91
FCFY4.49%
OCF(TTM)4.91
OCFY4.49%
SpS33.77
BVpS54.74
TBVpS54.74
PEG (NY)2.78
PEG (5Y)1.43
Graham Number96.11
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.41% | ||
| ROE | 14.53% | ||
| ROCE | 4.39% | ||
| ROIC | 3.81% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.03% | ||
| ROICexgc | 4.12% | ||
| OM | 29.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 23.55% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 14.54% |
ROA(3y)3.83%
ROA(5y)3.43%
ROE(3y)20.97%
ROE(5y)18.03%
ROIC(3y)3.95%
ROIC(5y)3.48%
ROICexc(3y)4.12%
ROICexc(5y)3.62%
ROICexgc(3y)4.23%
ROICexgc(5y)3.71%
ROCE(3y)4.56%
ROCE(5y)4.02%
ROICexgc growth 3Y16.53%
ROICexgc growth 5Y12.62%
ROICexc growth 3Y16.64%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.6%
OM growth 3Y11.49%
OM growth 5Y10.66%
PM growth 3Y13.73%
PM growth 5Y14.22%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.14
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.34 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.39 | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 28.52 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 41.68% | ||
| Profit Quality | 61.72% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score7
WACC8.06%
ROIC/WACC0.47
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)70.18%
Profit Quality(5y)90.4%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)8.7%
EPS 3Y6.78%
EPS 5Y10.21%
EPS Q2Q%15.28%
EPS Next Y5.24%
EPS Next 2Y1.56%
EPS Next 3Y3.01%
EPS Next 5Y4.12%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.32%
Revenue growth 3Y-5.07%
Revenue growth 5Y-3.26%
Sales Q2Q%60.73%
Revenue Next Year0.58%
Revenue Next 2Y0.75%
Revenue Next 3Y0.94%
Revenue Next 5Y1.93%
EBIT growth 1Y11.33%
EBIT growth 3Y5.83%
EBIT growth 5Y7.05%
EBIT Next Year-7.19%
EBIT Next 3Y-1.6%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-24.1%
FCF growth 3Y-18.77%
FCF growth 5Y-13.08%
OCF growth 1Y-24.1%
OCF growth 3Y-18.77%
OCF growth 5Y-13.08%
AFLAC INC / AFL FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of AFLAC INC (AFL) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AFL.
Can you provide the valuation status for AFLAC INC?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to AFLAC INC (AFL). This can be considered as Overvalued.
What is the profitability of AFL stock?
AFLAC INC (AFL) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
Can you provide the financial health for AFL stock?
The financial health rating of AFLAC INC (AFL) is 3 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for AFL stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of AFLAC INC (AFL) is expected to grow by 5.24% in the next year.