AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AFG - US0259321042 - Common Stock
131.65 USD
+0.59 (+0.45%)
131.65 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to AFG. AFG was compared to 149 industry peers in the Insurance industry. AFG is in great health and has no worries on liquidiy or solvency at all, but the profibility rating is only average. AFG has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- In the past year AFG was profitable.
- In the past year AFG had a positive cash flow from operations.
- In the past 5 years AFG has always been profitable.
- AFG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
- AFG has a Return On Assets (2.36%) which is in line with its industry peers.
- AFG has a better Return On Equity (16.87%) than 73.83% of its industry peers.
- The Return On Invested Capital of AFG (2.38%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
- The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for AFG is significantly below the industry average of 14.92%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.36% | ||
| ROE | 16.87% | ||
| ROIC | 2.38% |
ROA(3y)2.95%
ROA(5y)3.35%
ROE(3y)20.68%
ROE(5y)22.52%
ROIC(3y)2.95%
ROIC(5y)2.64%
1.3 Margins
- AFG has a Profit Margin (9.70%) which is in line with its industry peers.
- AFG's Profit Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
- AFG's Operating Margin of 12.28% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AFG outperforms 47.65% of its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AFG has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.28% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.7% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-15.95%
OM growth 5Y-2.25%
PM growth 3Y-29.55%
PM growth 5Y-0.39%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AFG is destroying value.
- The number of shares outstanding for AFG has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
- AFG has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
- AFG has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
- Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.77, we must say that AFG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
- AFG has a better Altman-Z score (0.77) than 76.51% of its industry peers.
- The Debt to FCF ratio of AFG is 1.41, which is an excellent value as it means it would take AFG, only 1.41 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
- Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 1.41, AFG is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.72% of the companies in the same industry.
- A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.38 indicates that AFG is not too dependend on debt financing.
- The Debt to Equity ratio of AFG (0.38) is worse than 60.40% of its industry peers.
- Even though the debt/equity ratio score it not favorable for AFG, it has very limited outstanding debt, so we won't put too much weight on the DE evaluation.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.38 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.41 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.77 |
ROIC/WACC0.29
WACC8.3%
2.3 Liquidity
- AFG has a Current Ratio of 9.26. This indicates that AFG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
- The Current ratio of AFG (9.26) is better than 96.64% of its industry peers.
- A Quick Ratio of 9.26 indicates that AFG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
- AFG has a Quick ratio of 9.26. This is amongst the best in the industry. AFG outperforms 96.64% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 9.26 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 9.26 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- The earnings per share for AFG have decreased by -6.78% in the last year.
- Measured over the past 5 years, AFG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 4.54% on average per year.
- Looking at the last year, AFG shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 0.13% in the last year.
- The Revenue has been growing slightly by 0.16% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.78%
EPS 3Y-2.5%
EPS 5Y4.54%
EPS Q2Q%16.45%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.13%
Revenue growth 3Y8.33%
Revenue growth 5Y0.16%
Sales Q2Q%-2.04%
3.2 Future
- Based on estimates for the next years, AFG will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 5.73% on average per year.
- AFG is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 3.36% yearly.
EPS Next Y-6.66%
EPS Next 2Y3.48%
EPS Next 3Y4.53%
EPS Next 5Y5.73%
Revenue Next Year0.48%
Revenue Next 2Y2.69%
Revenue Next 3Y3.18%
Revenue Next 5Y3.36%
3.3 Evolution
- When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
- The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 13.49, the valuation of AFG can be described as correct.
- AFG's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
- AFG's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 26.94.
- AFG is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.44.
- AFG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.94, AFG is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.49 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.44 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as AFG.
- AFG's Price/Free Cash Flow is on the same level as the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 8.5 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.01 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.97
EPS Next 2Y3.48%
EPS Next 3Y4.53%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.67%, AFG has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
- Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.53, AFG pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
- AFG's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 1.83.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.67% |
5.2 History
- The dividend of AFG is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 13.64%!
- AFG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
- AFG has decreased its dividend recently.
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.64%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
5.3 Sustainability
- AFG pays out 96.49% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
- The dividend of AFG is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP96.49%
EPS Next 2Y3.48%
EPS Next 3Y4.53%
131.65
+0.59 (+0.45%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)11-04 2025-11-04/amc
Earnings (Next)02-03 2026-02-03/amc
Inst Owners68.56%
Inst Owner Change0.3%
Ins Owners17.96%
Ins Owner Change-0.35%
Market Cap10.98B
Revenue(TTM)8.23B
Net Income(TTM)798.00M
Analysts72
Price Target143.41 (8.93%)
Short Float %2.06%
Short Ratio3.21
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.67% |
Yearly Dividend9.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.64%
DP96.49%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
Ex-Date01-15 2026-01-15 (0.88)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)3.9%
Min EPS beat(2)1.66%
Max EPS beat(2)6.15%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-1.05%
Min EPS beat(4)-11.61%
Max EPS beat(4)6.15%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-1.25%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)-2.16%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)4.6%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.89%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.78%
Max Revenue beat(2)0%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.85%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.18%
Max Revenue beat(4)6.57%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.94%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.24%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)4.53%
PT rev (1m)0.72%
PT rev (3m)6.03%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.57%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.42%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)5.15%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.61%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.27%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.49 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.44 | ||
| P/S | 1.33 | ||
| P/FCF | 8.5 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.72 | ||
| P/B | 2.32 | ||
| P/tB | 2.61 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.01 |
EPS(TTM)9.76
EY7.41%
EPS(NY)11.51
Fwd EY8.74%
FCF(TTM)15.48
FCFY11.76%
OCF(TTM)17.06
OCFY12.96%
SpS98.63
BVpS56.71
TBVpS50.49
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.97
Graham Number111.6
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.36% | ||
| ROE | 16.87% | ||
| ROCE | 3.01% | ||
| ROIC | 2.38% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.52% | ||
| ROICexgc | 2.77% | ||
| OM | 12.28% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.7% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 15.69% |
ROA(3y)2.95%
ROA(5y)3.35%
ROE(3y)20.68%
ROE(5y)22.52%
ROIC(3y)2.95%
ROIC(5y)2.64%
ROICexc(3y)3.07%
ROICexc(5y)2.78%
ROICexgc(3y)3.35%
ROICexgc(5y)3.01%
ROCE(3y)3.73%
ROCE(5y)3.34%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-11.18%
ROICexgc growth 5Y16.37%
ROICexc growth 3Y-11.66%
ROICexc growth 5Y15.82%
OM growth 3Y-15.95%
OM growth 5Y-2.25%
PM growth 3Y-29.55%
PM growth 5Y-0.39%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.24
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.38 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.41 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.66 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 155.29% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.6% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 129.95% | ||
| Profit Quality | 161.78% | ||
| Current Ratio | 9.26 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 9.26 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.77 |
F-Score5
WACC8.3%
ROIC/WACC0.29
Cap/Depr(3y)114.17%
Cap/Depr(5y)79.15%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.25%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.15%
Profit Quality(3y)152.16%
Profit Quality(5y)165.86%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.78%
EPS 3Y-2.5%
EPS 5Y4.54%
EPS Q2Q%16.45%
EPS Next Y-6.66%
EPS Next 2Y3.48%
EPS Next 3Y4.53%
EPS Next 5Y5.73%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.13%
Revenue growth 3Y8.33%
Revenue growth 5Y0.16%
Sales Q2Q%-2.04%
Revenue Next Year0.48%
Revenue Next 2Y2.69%
Revenue Next 3Y3.18%
Revenue Next 5Y3.36%
EBIT growth 1Y-7.08%
EBIT growth 3Y-8.95%
EBIT growth 5Y-2.09%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y1.65%
FCF growth 3Y-14.88%
FCF growth 5Y-15.83%
OCF growth 1Y7.48%
OCF growth 3Y-12.4%
OCF growth 5Y-14.05%
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC / AFG FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to AFG.
What is the valuation status of AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of AFG stock?
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
What is the valuation of AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC based on its PE and PB ratios?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) is 13.49 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.32.
What is the expected EPS growth for AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) is expected to decline by -6.66% in the next year.