AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AFG - US0259321042 - Common Stock
143.06 USD
+1.64 (+1.16%)
143.06 USD
0 (0%)
Taking everything into account, AFG scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AFG was compared to 146 industry peers in the Insurance industry. While AFG has a great health rating, its profitability is only average at the moment. AFG is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AFG was profitable.
AFG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
AFG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years AFG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 2.49%, AFG is in line with its industry, outperforming 54.79% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 16.92%, AFG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 77.40% of the companies in the same industry.
AFG has a Return On Invested Capital of 2.56%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AFG outperforms 48.63% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for AFG is in line with the industry average of 4.56%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.49% | ||
| ROE | 16.92% | ||
| ROIC | 2.56% |
ROA(3y)2.95%
ROA(5y)3.35%
ROE(3y)20.68%
ROE(5y)22.52%
ROIC(3y)2.95%
ROIC(5y)2.64%
1.3 Margins
With a decent Profit Margin value of 9.23%, AFG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 60.27% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AFG has remained more or less at the same level.
With a Operating Margin value of 11.89%, AFG perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AFG has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.89% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.23% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-15.95%
OM growth 5Y-2.25%
PM growth 3Y-29.55%
PM growth 5Y-0.39%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AFG is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AFG has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, AFG has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, AFG has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
AFG has an Altman-Z score of 0.82. This is a bad value and indicates that AFG is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a decent Altman-Z score value of 0.82, AFG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 76.71% of the companies in the same industry.
AFG has a debt to FCF ratio of 0.95. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 0.95 years to pay back of all of its debts.
AFG has a better Debt to FCF ratio (0.95) than 67.81% of its industry peers.
AFG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.33. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
AFG has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.33) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.33 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.95 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.82 |
ROIC/WACC0.31
WACC8.22%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 3.88 indicates that AFG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
AFG has a better Current ratio (3.88) than 95.89% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 3.88 indicates that AFG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
AFG has a Quick ratio of 3.88. This is amongst the best in the industry. AFG outperforms 95.89% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 3.88 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 3.88 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AFG shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -6.78%.
AFG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 4.54% yearly.
Looking at the last year, AFG shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 6.35% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, AFG shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 0.16% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.78%
EPS 3Y-2.5%
EPS 5Y4.54%
EPS Q2Q%16.45%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)6.35%
Revenue growth 3Y8.33%
Revenue growth 5Y0.16%
Sales Q2Q%-2.04%
3.2 Future
AFG is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 4.58% yearly.
AFG is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 3.31% yearly.
EPS Next Y-9.02%
EPS Next 2Y4.04%
EPS Next 3Y4.58%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year0.75%
Revenue Next 2Y3.94%
Revenue Next 3Y3.31%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 14.66, AFG is valued correctly.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AFG is on the same level as its industry peers.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AFG to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.06), we can say AFG is valued slightly cheaper.
AFG is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.29.
AFG's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
AFG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 32.73, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.66 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.29 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of AFG is on the same level as its industry peers.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AFG is valued a bit cheaper than 62.33% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 7.72 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.34 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.23
EPS Next 2Y4.04%
EPS Next 3Y4.58%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.49%, AFG has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.38, AFG pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
AFG's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.37.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.49% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AFG grows each year by 13.64%, which is quite nice.
AFG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AFG has decreased its dividend recently.
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.64%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
5.3 Sustainability
99.74% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AFG. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
AFG's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP99.74%
EPS Next 2Y4.04%
EPS Next 3Y4.58%
143.06
+1.64 (+1.16%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners67.24%
Inst Owner Change-0.41%
Ins Owners17.97%
Ins Owner Change1.15%
Market Cap11.93B
Revenue(TTM)8.32B
Net Income(TTM)764.00M
Analysts72
Price Target140.15 (-2.03%)
Short Float %2.27%
Short Ratio3.26
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.49% |
Yearly Dividend9.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.64%
DP99.74%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-4.97%
Min EPS beat(2)-11.61%
Max EPS beat(2)1.66%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-4.43%
Min EPS beat(4)-11.61%
Max EPS beat(4)1.66%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-2.24%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)-2.2%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)6.98%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-8.98%
Min Revenue beat(2)-10.18%
Max Revenue beat(2)-7.78%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.13%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.18%
Max Revenue beat(4)11.93%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.49%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)2.78%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)6.28%
PT rev (1m)3.62%
PT rev (3m)4.25%
EPS NQ rev (1m)8.94%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-12.68%
EPS NY rev (1m)2.49%
EPS NY rev (3m)-3.65%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)5.5%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.31%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.66 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.29 | ||
| P/S | 1.44 | ||
| P/FCF | 7.72 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.16 | ||
| P/B | 2.64 | ||
| P/tB | 2.97 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.34 |
EPS(TTM)9.76
EY6.82%
EPS(NY)11.64
Fwd EY8.13%
FCF(TTM)18.54
FCFY12.96%
OCF(TTM)19.98
OCFY13.97%
SpS99.26
BVpS54.16
TBVpS48.18
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.23
Graham Number109.05
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.49% | ||
| ROE | 16.92% | ||
| ROCE | 3.23% | ||
| ROIC | 2.56% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.67% | ||
| ROICexgc | 2.94% | ||
| OM | 11.89% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.23% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 18.68% |
ROA(3y)2.95%
ROA(5y)3.35%
ROE(3y)20.68%
ROE(5y)22.52%
ROIC(3y)2.95%
ROIC(5y)2.64%
ROICexc(3y)3.07%
ROICexc(5y)2.78%
ROICexgc(3y)3.35%
ROICexgc(5y)3.01%
ROCE(3y)3.73%
ROCE(5y)3.34%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-11.18%
ROICexgc growth 5Y16.37%
ROICexc growth 3Y-11.66%
ROICexc growth 5Y15.82%
OM growth 3Y-15.95%
OM growth 5Y-2.25%
PM growth 3Y-29.55%
PM growth 5Y-0.39%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.27
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.33 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.95 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.38 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 139.54% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.45% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 155.7% | ||
| Profit Quality | 202.36% | ||
| Current Ratio | 3.88 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 3.88 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.82 |
F-Score7
WACC8.22%
ROIC/WACC0.31
Cap/Depr(3y)114.17%
Cap/Depr(5y)79.15%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.25%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.15%
Profit Quality(3y)152.16%
Profit Quality(5y)165.86%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.78%
EPS 3Y-2.5%
EPS 5Y4.54%
EPS Q2Q%16.45%
EPS Next Y-9.02%
EPS Next 2Y4.04%
EPS Next 3Y4.58%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)6.35%
Revenue growth 3Y8.33%
Revenue growth 5Y0.16%
Sales Q2Q%-2.04%
Revenue Next Year0.75%
Revenue Next 2Y3.94%
Revenue Next 3Y3.31%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-11.03%
EBIT growth 3Y-8.95%
EBIT growth 5Y-2.09%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y41.06%
FCF growth 3Y-14.88%
FCF growth 5Y-15.83%
OCF growth 1Y43.99%
OCF growth 3Y-12.4%
OCF growth 5Y-14.05%
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC / AFG FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to AFG.
Can you provide the valuation status for AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) stock?
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for AFG stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) is 14.66 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.64.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for AFG stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) is expected to decline by -9.02% in the next year.