AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:AFG • US0259321042

Current stock price

129.69 USD
-1.68 (-1.28%)
Last:

This AFG fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

4

1. AFG Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year AFG was profitable.
  • AFG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • AFG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
  • AFG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
AFG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAFG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500M 1B 1.5B 2B

1.2 Ratios

  • AFG's Return On Assets of 2.58% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AFG outperforms 53.74% of its industry peers.
  • With a decent Return On Equity value of 17.47%, AFG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 70.07% of the companies in the same industry.
  • AFG has a Return On Invested Capital of 2.64%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AFG outperforms 49.66% of its industry peers.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for AFG is significantly below the industry average of 9.60%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.58%
ROE 17.47%
ROIC 2.64%
ROA(3y)2.77%
ROA(5y)3.67%
ROE(3y)19.11%
ROE(5y)23.86%
ROIC(3y)2.71%
ROIC(5y)3.07%
AFG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAFG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10 20 30

1.3 Margins

  • With a Profit Margin value of 10.34%, AFG perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 59.86% of the companies in the same industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AFG has declined.
  • AFG has a Operating Margin (13.38%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AFG has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 13.38%
PM (TTM) 10.34%
GM N/A
OM growth 3Y-8.15%
OM growth 5Y12.97%
PM growth 3Y-6.86%
PM growth 5Y-4.11%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
AFG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAFG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10 20 30

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7

2. AFG Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • AFG has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, AFG has less shares outstanding
  • Compared to 5 years ago, AFG has less shares outstanding
  • The debt/assets ratio for AFG is higher compared to a year ago.
AFG Yearly Shares OutstandingAFG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20M 40M 60M 80M
AFG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAFG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20B 40B 60B

2.2 Solvency

  • Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.78, we must say that AFG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • With a decent Altman-Z score value of 0.78, AFG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 76.87% of the companies in the same industry.
  • AFG has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.30. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.30 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 1.30, AFG perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 58.50% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.38 indicates that AFG is not too dependend on debt financing.
  • With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.38, AFG is not doing good in the industry: 60.54% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
  • Even though the debt/equity ratio score it not favorable for AFG, it has very limited outstanding debt, so we won't put too much weight on the DE evaluation.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.38
Debt/FCF 1.3
Altman-Z 0.78
ROIC/WACC0.32
WACC8.27%
AFG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAFG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B

2.3 Liquidity

  • AFG has a Current Ratio of 5.61. This indicates that AFG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
  • The Current ratio of AFG (5.61) is better than 97.28% of its industry peers.
  • AFG has a Quick Ratio of 5.61. This indicates that AFG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 5.61, AFG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 97.28% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 5.61
Quick Ratio 5.61
AFG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAFG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

3

3. AFG Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The earnings per share for AFG have decreased by -4.28% in the last year.
  • AFG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 3.97% yearly.
  • The Revenue has decreased by -1.70% in the past year.
  • The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.25% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-4.28%
EPS 3Y-4.03%
EPS 5Y3.97%
EPS Q2Q%16.99%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-1.7%
Revenue growth 3Y5.09%
Revenue growth 5Y7.25%
Sales Q2Q%-2.38%

3.2 Future

  • Based on estimates for the next years, AFG will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 8.39% on average per year.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, AFG will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 3.75% on average per year.
EPS Next Y8.8%
EPS Next 2Y8.66%
EPS Next 3Y8.39%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year2.65%
Revenue Next 2Y3.54%
Revenue Next 3Y3.75%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
AFG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAFG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2B 4B 6B 8B
AFG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAFG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2 4 6 8 10

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4

4. AFG Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • A Price/Earnings ratio of 12.60 indicates a correct valuation of AFG.
  • The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as AFG.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.91, AFG is valued rather cheaply.
  • The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 11.58, which indicates a very decent valuation of AFG.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AFG is on the same level as its industry peers.
  • AFG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 21.99.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 12.6
Fwd PE 11.58
AFG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAFG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as AFG.
  • AFG's Price/Free Cash Flow is on the same level as the industry average.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 7.71
EV/EBITDA 9.37
AFG Per share dataAFG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 20 40 60 80

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • AFG's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)1.43
PEG (5Y)3.18
EPS Next 2Y8.66%
EPS Next 3Y8.39%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

5

5. AFG Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.66%, AFG has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
  • AFG's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 2.37.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.82, AFG pays a bit more dividend than the S&P500 average.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.66%

5.2 History

  • On average, the dividend of AFG grows each year by 13.79%, which is quite nice.
  • AFG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.79%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
AFG Yearly Dividends per shareAFG Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 5 10 15 20 25

5.3 Sustainability

  • 71.97% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AFG. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
  • AFG's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP71.97%
EPS Next 2Y8.66%
EPS Next 3Y8.39%
AFG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendAFG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500M 1B 1.5B 2B
AFG Dividend Payout.AFG Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.AFG Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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AFG Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC

NYSE:AFG (4/29/2026, 12:58:22 PM)

129.69

-1.68 (-1.28%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Industry Strength40.37
Industry Growth89.44
Earnings (Last)02-03
Earnings (Next)04-29
Inst Owners68.31%
Inst Owner Change-0.18%
Ins Owners17.56%
Ins Owner Change1.35%
Market Cap10.78B
Revenue(TTM)8.14B
Net Income(TTM)842.00M
Analysts70.91
Price Target144.16 (11.16%)
Short Float %2.02%
Short Ratio2.11
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.66%
Yearly Dividend7.24
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.79%
DP71.97%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date04-15
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)7.61%
Min EPS beat(2)6.15%
Max EPS beat(2)9.06%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)1.32%
Min EPS beat(4)-11.61%
Max EPS beat(4)9.06%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)0.28%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)-1.71%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)2.86%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.66%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.32%
Max Revenue beat(2)0%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-5.32%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.18%
Max Revenue beat(4)0%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.74%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.94%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)2.85%
PT rev (1m)0.59%
PT rev (3m)0.52%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.07%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-2.6%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-2.56%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.17%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.54%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.03%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.8%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 12.6
Fwd PE 11.58
P/S 1.32
P/FCF 7.71
P/OCF 7.03
P/B 2.24
P/tB 2.5
EV/EBITDA 9.37
EPS(TTM)10.29
EY7.93%
EPS(NY)11.2
Fwd EY8.63%
FCF(TTM)16.83
FCFY12.97%
OCF(TTM)18.45
OCFY14.23%
SpS97.97
BVpS58.01
TBVpS51.8
PEG (NY)1.43
PEG (5Y)3.18
Graham Number115.891 (-10.64%)
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.58%
ROE 17.47%
ROCE 3.36%
ROIC 2.64%
ROICexc 2.79%
ROICexgc 3.04%
OM 13.38%
PM (TTM) 10.34%
GM N/A
FCFM 17.17%
ROA(3y)2.77%
ROA(5y)3.67%
ROE(3y)19.11%
ROE(5y)23.86%
ROIC(3y)2.71%
ROIC(5y)3.07%
ROICexc(3y)2.84%
ROICexc(5y)3.23%
ROICexgc(3y)3.1%
ROICexgc(5y)3.51%
ROCE(3y)3.44%
ROCE(5y)3.9%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-6.59%
ROICexgc growth 5Y45.38%
ROICexc growth 3Y-6.57%
ROICexc growth 5Y43.64%
OM growth 3Y-8.15%
OM growth 5Y12.97%
PM growth 3Y-6.86%
PM growth 5Y-4.11%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.25
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.38
Debt/FCF 1.3
Debt/EBITDA 1.55
Cap/Depr 156.98%
Cap/Sales 1.66%
Interest Coverage 14.72
Cash Conversion 130.47%
Profit Quality 166.03%
Current Ratio 5.61
Quick Ratio 5.61
Altman-Z 0.78
F-Score5
WACC8.27%
ROIC/WACC0.32
Cap/Depr(3y)137.83%
Cap/Depr(5y)106.53%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.39%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.27%
Profit Quality(3y)167.9%
Profit Quality(5y)141.06%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-4.28%
EPS 3Y-4.03%
EPS 5Y3.97%
EPS Q2Q%16.99%
EPS Next Y8.8%
EPS Next 2Y8.66%
EPS Next 3Y8.39%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-1.7%
Revenue growth 3Y5.09%
Revenue growth 5Y7.25%
Sales Q2Q%-2.38%
Revenue Next Year2.65%
Revenue Next 2Y3.54%
Revenue Next 3Y3.75%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y1.3%
EBIT growth 3Y-3.48%
EBIT growth 5Y21.17%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y37.19%
FCF growth 3Y9.42%
FCF growth 5Y-8.02%
OCF growth 1Y33.07%
OCF growth 3Y9.96%
OCF growth 5Y-6.83%

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC / AFG Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to AFG.


What is the valuation status for AFG stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) stock?

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.


Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for AFG stock?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) is 12.6 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.24.


Is the dividend of AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC sustainable?

The dividend rating of AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 71.97%.