AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AFG - US0259321042 - Common Stock
131.1 USD
-0.8 (-0.61%)
Taking everything into account, AFG scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AFG was compared to 146 industry peers in the Insurance industry. AFG has an excellent financial health rating, but there are some minor concerns on its profitability. AFG is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- In the past year AFG was profitable.
- In the past year AFG had a positive cash flow from operations.
- AFG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
- AFG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
- AFG has a Return On Assets (2.36%) which is in line with its industry peers.
- With a decent Return On Equity value of 16.87%, AFG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 73.97% of the companies in the same industry.
- Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 2.38%, AFG is in line with its industry, outperforming 52.05% of the companies in the same industry.
- AFG had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 2.95%. This is significantly below the industry average of 15.11%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.36% | ||
| ROE | 16.87% | ||
| ROIC | 2.38% |
ROA(3y)2.95%
ROA(5y)3.35%
ROE(3y)20.68%
ROE(5y)22.52%
ROIC(3y)2.95%
ROIC(5y)2.64%
1.3 Margins
- The Profit Margin of AFG (9.70%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
- In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AFG has remained more or less at the same level.
- AFG's Operating Margin of 12.28% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AFG outperforms 48.63% of its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AFG has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.28% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.7% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-15.95%
OM growth 5Y-2.25%
PM growth 3Y-29.55%
PM growth 5Y-0.39%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AFG is destroying value.
- Compared to 1 year ago, AFG has more shares outstanding
- The number of shares outstanding for AFG has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
- Compared to 1 year ago, AFG has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
- AFG has an Altman-Z score of 0.77. This is a bad value and indicates that AFG is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
- Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 0.77, AFG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 78.08% of the companies in the same industry.
- The Debt to FCF ratio of AFG is 1.41, which is an excellent value as it means it would take AFG, only 1.41 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
- AFG has a Debt to FCF ratio (1.41) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
- AFG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.38. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
- Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.38, AFG is doing worse than 61.64% of the companies in the same industry.
- Although AFG does not score too well on debt/equity it has very limited outstanding debt, which is well covered by the FCF. We will not put too much weight on the debt/equity number as it may be because of low equity, which could be a consequence of a share buyback program for instance. This needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.38 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.41 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.77 |
ROIC/WACC0.29
WACC8.22%
2.3 Liquidity
- A Current Ratio of 9.26 indicates that AFG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
- With an excellent Current ratio value of 9.26, AFG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 96.58% of the companies in the same industry.
- A Quick Ratio of 9.26 indicates that AFG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
- AFG has a Quick ratio of 9.26. This is amongst the best in the industry. AFG outperforms 96.58% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 9.26 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 9.26 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- The earnings per share for AFG have decreased by -6.78% in the last year.
- AFG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 4.54% yearly.
- The Revenue has been growing slightly by 0.13% in the past year.
- Measured over the past years, AFG shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 0.16% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.78%
EPS 3Y-2.5%
EPS 5Y4.54%
EPS Q2Q%16.45%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.13%
Revenue growth 3Y8.33%
Revenue growth 5Y0.16%
Sales Q2Q%-2.04%
3.2 Future
- The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 5.73% on average over the next years.
- AFG is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 3.36% yearly.
EPS Next Y-6.66%
EPS Next 2Y3.48%
EPS Next 3Y4.53%
EPS Next 5Y5.73%
Revenue Next Year0.48%
Revenue Next 2Y2.71%
Revenue Next 3Y3.2%
Revenue Next 5Y3.36%
3.3 Evolution
- When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
- When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- A Price/Earnings ratio of 13.43 indicates a correct valuation of AFG.
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AFG is on the same level as its industry peers.
- AFG's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 27.54.
- A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.39 indicates a reasonable valuation of AFG.
- AFG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
- AFG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 24.31.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.43 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.39 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- AFG's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of AFG is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 8.47 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.03 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.96
EPS Next 2Y3.48%
EPS Next 3Y4.53%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- AFG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.61%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
- Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.42, AFG pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.92, AFG pays a bit more dividend than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.61% |
5.2 History
- On average, the dividend of AFG grows each year by 13.64%, which is quite nice.
- AFG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
- AFG has decreased its dividend recently.
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.64%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
5.3 Sustainability
- AFG pays out 96.49% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
- The dividend of AFG is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP96.49%
EPS Next 2Y3.48%
EPS Next 3Y4.53%
NYSE:AFG (1/16/2026, 9:51:07 AM)
131.1
-0.8 (-0.61%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)11-04 2025-11-04/amc
Earnings (Next)02-02 2026-02-02/amc
Inst Owners68.56%
Inst Owner Change0.17%
Ins Owners17.96%
Ins Owner Change-0.35%
Market Cap10.93B
Revenue(TTM)8.23B
Net Income(TTM)798.00M
Analysts72
Price Target143.41 (9.39%)
Short Float %2.06%
Short Ratio3.2
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.61% |
Yearly Dividend9.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.64%
DP96.49%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
Ex-Date01-15 2026-01-15 (0.88)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)3.9%
Min EPS beat(2)1.66%
Max EPS beat(2)6.15%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-1.05%
Min EPS beat(4)-11.61%
Max EPS beat(4)6.15%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-1.25%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)-2.16%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)4.6%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.89%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.78%
Max Revenue beat(2)0%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.85%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.18%
Max Revenue beat(4)6.57%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.94%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.24%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)4.53%
PT rev (1m)0.72%
PT rev (3m)6.03%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)3.46%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)5.15%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.61%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.27%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.43 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.39 | ||
| P/S | 1.33 | ||
| P/FCF | 8.47 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.68 | ||
| P/B | 2.31 | ||
| P/tB | 2.6 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.03 |
EPS(TTM)9.76
EY7.44%
EPS(NY)11.51
Fwd EY8.78%
FCF(TTM)15.48
FCFY11.81%
OCF(TTM)17.06
OCFY13.01%
SpS98.63
BVpS56.71
TBVpS50.49
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.96
Graham Number111.6
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.36% | ||
| ROE | 16.87% | ||
| ROCE | 3.01% | ||
| ROIC | 2.38% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.52% | ||
| ROICexgc | 2.77% | ||
| OM | 12.28% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.7% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 15.69% |
ROA(3y)2.95%
ROA(5y)3.35%
ROE(3y)20.68%
ROE(5y)22.52%
ROIC(3y)2.95%
ROIC(5y)2.64%
ROICexc(3y)3.07%
ROICexc(5y)2.78%
ROICexgc(3y)3.35%
ROICexgc(5y)3.01%
ROCE(3y)3.73%
ROCE(5y)3.34%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-11.18%
ROICexgc growth 5Y16.37%
ROICexc growth 3Y-11.66%
ROICexc growth 5Y15.82%
OM growth 3Y-15.95%
OM growth 5Y-2.25%
PM growth 3Y-29.55%
PM growth 5Y-0.39%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.24
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.38 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.41 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.66 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 155.29% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.6% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 129.95% | ||
| Profit Quality | 161.78% | ||
| Current Ratio | 9.26 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 9.26 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.77 |
F-Score5
WACC8.22%
ROIC/WACC0.29
Cap/Depr(3y)114.17%
Cap/Depr(5y)79.15%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.25%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.15%
Profit Quality(3y)152.16%
Profit Quality(5y)165.86%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.78%
EPS 3Y-2.5%
EPS 5Y4.54%
EPS Q2Q%16.45%
EPS Next Y-6.66%
EPS Next 2Y3.48%
EPS Next 3Y4.53%
EPS Next 5Y5.73%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.13%
Revenue growth 3Y8.33%
Revenue growth 5Y0.16%
Sales Q2Q%-2.04%
Revenue Next Year0.48%
Revenue Next 2Y2.71%
Revenue Next 3Y3.2%
Revenue Next 5Y3.36%
EBIT growth 1Y-7.08%
EBIT growth 3Y-8.95%
EBIT growth 5Y-2.09%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y1.65%
FCF growth 3Y-14.88%
FCF growth 5Y-15.83%
OCF growth 1Y7.48%
OCF growth 3Y-12.4%
OCF growth 5Y-14.05%
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC / AFG FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to AFG.
What is the valuation status of AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of AFG stock?
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
What is the valuation of AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC based on its PE and PB ratios?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) is 13.43 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.31.
What is the expected EPS growth for AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) is expected to decline by -6.66% in the next year.