AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AFG - US0259321042 - Common Stock
129.52 USD
-2.08 (-1.58%)
129.52 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to AFG. AFG was compared to 146 industry peers in the Insurance industry. AFG has an excellent financial health rating, but there are some minor concerns on its profitability. AFG has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- In the past year AFG was profitable.
- AFG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
- Each year in the past 5 years AFG has been profitable.
- Each year in the past 5 years AFG had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
- AFG's Return On Assets of 2.36% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AFG outperforms 54.11% of its industry peers.
- AFG's Return On Equity of 16.87% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AFG outperforms 73.97% of its industry peers.
- AFG has a Return On Invested Capital of 2.38%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AFG outperforms 52.05% of its industry peers.
- AFG had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 2.95%. This is significantly below the industry average of 15.11%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.36% | ||
| ROE | 16.87% | ||
| ROIC | 2.38% |
ROA(3y)2.95%
ROA(5y)3.35%
ROE(3y)20.68%
ROE(5y)22.52%
ROIC(3y)2.95%
ROIC(5y)2.64%
1.3 Margins
- Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 9.70%, AFG is in line with its industry, outperforming 56.85% of the companies in the same industry.
- AFG's Profit Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
- AFG's Operating Margin of 12.28% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AFG outperforms 48.63% of its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AFG has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.28% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.7% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-15.95%
OM growth 5Y-2.25%
PM growth 3Y-29.55%
PM growth 5Y-0.39%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AFG is destroying value.
- The number of shares outstanding for AFG has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
- Compared to 5 years ago, AFG has less shares outstanding
- Compared to 1 year ago, AFG has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
- AFG has an Altman-Z score of 0.77. This is a bad value and indicates that AFG is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
- With a decent Altman-Z score value of 0.77, AFG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 78.08% of the companies in the same industry.
- The Debt to FCF ratio of AFG is 1.41, which is an excellent value as it means it would take AFG, only 1.41 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
- AFG's Debt to FCF ratio of 1.41 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AFG outperforms 56.85% of its industry peers.
- A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.38 indicates that AFG is not too dependend on debt financing.
- With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.38, AFG is not doing good in the industry: 61.64% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
- Even though the debt/equity ratio score it not favorable for AFG, it has very limited outstanding debt, so we won't put too much weight on the DE evaluation.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.38 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.41 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.77 |
ROIC/WACC0.29
WACC8.25%
2.3 Liquidity
- AFG has a Current Ratio of 9.26. This indicates that AFG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
- With an excellent Current ratio value of 9.26, AFG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 96.58% of the companies in the same industry.
- AFG has a Quick Ratio of 9.26. This indicates that AFG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
- AFG has a Quick ratio of 9.26. This is amongst the best in the industry. AFG outperforms 96.58% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 9.26 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 9.26 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- The earnings per share for AFG have decreased by -6.78% in the last year.
- Measured over the past 5 years, AFG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 4.54% on average per year.
- The Revenue has been growing slightly by 0.13% in the past year.
- The Revenue has been growing slightly by 0.16% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.78%
EPS 3Y-2.5%
EPS 5Y4.54%
EPS Q2Q%16.45%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.13%
Revenue growth 3Y8.33%
Revenue growth 5Y0.16%
Sales Q2Q%-2.04%
3.2 Future
- AFG is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 5.73% yearly.
- AFG is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 3.36% yearly.
EPS Next Y-6.66%
EPS Next 2Y3.48%
EPS Next 3Y4.53%
EPS Next 5Y5.73%
Revenue Next Year0.48%
Revenue Next 2Y2.71%
Revenue Next 3Y3.2%
Revenue Next 5Y3.36%
3.3 Evolution
- The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
- The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- The Price/Earnings ratio is 13.27, which indicates a correct valuation of AFG.
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AFG is on the same level as its industry peers.
- AFG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.30, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
- The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 11.25, which indicates a very decent valuation of AFG.
- AFG's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
- AFG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 24.04.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.27 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.25 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as AFG.
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of AFG is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 8.37 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.84 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.92
EPS Next 2Y3.48%
EPS Next 3Y4.53%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- AFG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.61%.
- AFG's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 2.42.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.92, AFG pays a bit more dividend than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.61% |
5.2 History
- The dividend of AFG is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 13.64%!
- AFG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
- The dividend of AFG decreased recently.
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.64%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
5.3 Sustainability
- 96.49% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AFG. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
- AFG's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP96.49%
EPS Next 2Y3.48%
EPS Next 3Y4.53%
129.52
-2.08 (-1.58%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)11-04 2025-11-04/amc
Earnings (Next)02-02 2026-02-02/amc
Inst Owners68.56%
Inst Owner Change0.17%
Ins Owners17.96%
Ins Owner Change-0.35%
Market Cap10.80B
Revenue(TTM)8.23B
Net Income(TTM)798.00M
Analysts72
Price Target143.41 (10.72%)
Short Float %2.06%
Short Ratio3.2
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.61% |
Yearly Dividend9.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.64%
DP96.49%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
Ex-Date01-15 2026-01-15 (0.88)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)3.9%
Min EPS beat(2)1.66%
Max EPS beat(2)6.15%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-1.05%
Min EPS beat(4)-11.61%
Max EPS beat(4)6.15%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-1.25%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)-2.16%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)4.6%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.89%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.78%
Max Revenue beat(2)0%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.85%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.18%
Max Revenue beat(4)6.57%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.94%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.24%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)4.53%
PT rev (1m)0.72%
PT rev (3m)6.03%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)3.46%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)5.15%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.61%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.27%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.27 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.25 | ||
| P/S | 1.31 | ||
| P/FCF | 8.37 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.59 | ||
| P/B | 2.28 | ||
| P/tB | 2.57 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.84 |
EPS(TTM)9.76
EY7.54%
EPS(NY)11.51
Fwd EY8.89%
FCF(TTM)15.48
FCFY11.95%
OCF(TTM)17.06
OCFY13.17%
SpS98.63
BVpS56.71
TBVpS50.49
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.92
Graham Number111.6
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.36% | ||
| ROE | 16.87% | ||
| ROCE | 3.01% | ||
| ROIC | 2.38% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.52% | ||
| ROICexgc | 2.77% | ||
| OM | 12.28% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.7% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 15.69% |
ROA(3y)2.95%
ROA(5y)3.35%
ROE(3y)20.68%
ROE(5y)22.52%
ROIC(3y)2.95%
ROIC(5y)2.64%
ROICexc(3y)3.07%
ROICexc(5y)2.78%
ROICexgc(3y)3.35%
ROICexgc(5y)3.01%
ROCE(3y)3.73%
ROCE(5y)3.34%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-11.18%
ROICexgc growth 5Y16.37%
ROICexc growth 3Y-11.66%
ROICexc growth 5Y15.82%
OM growth 3Y-15.95%
OM growth 5Y-2.25%
PM growth 3Y-29.55%
PM growth 5Y-0.39%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.24
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.38 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.41 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.66 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 155.29% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.6% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 129.95% | ||
| Profit Quality | 161.78% | ||
| Current Ratio | 9.26 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 9.26 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.77 |
F-Score5
WACC8.25%
ROIC/WACC0.29
Cap/Depr(3y)114.17%
Cap/Depr(5y)79.15%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.25%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.15%
Profit Quality(3y)152.16%
Profit Quality(5y)165.86%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.78%
EPS 3Y-2.5%
EPS 5Y4.54%
EPS Q2Q%16.45%
EPS Next Y-6.66%
EPS Next 2Y3.48%
EPS Next 3Y4.53%
EPS Next 5Y5.73%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.13%
Revenue growth 3Y8.33%
Revenue growth 5Y0.16%
Sales Q2Q%-2.04%
Revenue Next Year0.48%
Revenue Next 2Y2.71%
Revenue Next 3Y3.2%
Revenue Next 5Y3.36%
EBIT growth 1Y-7.08%
EBIT growth 3Y-8.95%
EBIT growth 5Y-2.09%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y1.65%
FCF growth 3Y-14.88%
FCF growth 5Y-15.83%
OCF growth 1Y7.48%
OCF growth 3Y-12.4%
OCF growth 5Y-14.05%
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC / AFG FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to AFG.
What is the valuation status of AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of AFG stock?
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
What is the valuation of AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC based on its PE and PB ratios?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) is 13.27 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.28.
What is the expected EPS growth for AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) is expected to decline by -6.66% in the next year.