AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:AFG • US0259321042

Current stock price

125.78 USD
-3.15 (-2.44%)
At close:
125.78 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours:

This AFG fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

4

1. AFG Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year AFG was profitable.
  • AFG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • AFG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
  • In the past 5 years AFG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
AFG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAFG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500M 1B 1.5B 2B

1.2 Ratios

  • AFG has a Return On Assets (2.58%) which is in line with its industry peers.
  • The Return On Equity of AFG (17.47%) is better than 72.30% of its industry peers.
  • AFG has a Return On Invested Capital (2.64%) which is in line with its industry peers.
  • Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for AFG is significantly below the industry average of 9.34%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.58%
ROE 17.47%
ROIC 2.64%
ROA(3y)2.77%
ROA(5y)3.67%
ROE(3y)19.11%
ROE(5y)23.86%
ROIC(3y)2.71%
ROIC(5y)3.07%
AFG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAFG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10 20 30

1.3 Margins

  • AFG has a Profit Margin of 10.34%. This is in the better half of the industry: AFG outperforms 62.84% of its industry peers.
  • AFG's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
  • AFG has a Operating Margin of 13.38%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AFG outperforms 54.05% of its industry peers.
  • AFG's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 13.38%
PM (TTM) 10.34%
GM N/A
OM growth 3Y-8.15%
OM growth 5Y12.97%
PM growth 3Y-6.86%
PM growth 5Y-4.11%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
AFG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAFG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10 20 30

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7

2. AFG Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AFG is destroying value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for AFG has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
  • The number of shares outstanding for AFG has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
  • The debt/assets ratio for AFG is higher compared to a year ago.
AFG Yearly Shares OutstandingAFG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20M 40M 60M 80M
AFG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAFG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20B 40B 60B

2.2 Solvency

  • Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.77, we must say that AFG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 0.77, AFG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 77.70% of the companies in the same industry.
  • AFG has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.30. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.30 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • AFG has a Debt to FCF ratio (1.30) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • AFG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.38. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
  • The Debt to Equity ratio of AFG (0.38) is worse than 60.81% of its industry peers.
  • Although AFG's pure debt/equity ratio does not look good, it has limited outstanding debt compared to the Free Cash Flow. We will not put too much weight on the debt/equity number as it may be because of low equity, which could be a consequence of a share buyback program for instance. This needs to be investigated.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.38
Debt/FCF 1.3
Altman-Z 0.77
ROIC/WACC0.32
WACC8.33%
AFG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAFG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B

2.3 Liquidity

  • AFG has a Current Ratio of 5.61. This indicates that AFG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
  • AFG has a Current ratio of 5.61. This is amongst the best in the industry. AFG outperforms 97.30% of its industry peers.
  • A Quick Ratio of 5.61 indicates that AFG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
  • AFG has a better Quick ratio (5.61) than 97.30% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 5.61
Quick Ratio 5.61
AFG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAFG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

3

3. AFG Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • AFG shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -4.28%.
  • AFG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 3.97% yearly.
  • Looking at the last year, AFG shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -1.70% in the last year.
  • The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.25% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-4.28%
EPS 3Y-4.03%
EPS 5Y3.97%
EPS Q2Q%16.99%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-1.7%
Revenue growth 3Y5.09%
Revenue growth 5Y7.25%
Sales Q2Q%-2.38%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 8.39% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, AFG will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 3.73% on average per year.
EPS Next Y8.8%
EPS Next 2Y8.66%
EPS Next 3Y8.39%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year2.68%
Revenue Next 2Y3.64%
Revenue Next 3Y3.73%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
AFG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAFG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2B 4B 6B 8B
AFG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAFG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2 4 6 8 10

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4

4. AFG Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • The Price/Earnings ratio is 12.22, which indicates a correct valuation of AFG.
  • AFG's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 24.88. AFG is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
  • The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 11.24, which indicates a very decent valuation of AFG.
  • AFG's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
  • AFG is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.19, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 12.22
Fwd PE 11.24
AFG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAFG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of AFG is on the same level as its industry peers.
  • AFG's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 7.49
EV/EBITDA 9.22
AFG Per share dataAFG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 20 40 60 80

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • AFG's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)1.39
PEG (5Y)3.08
EPS Next 2Y8.66%
EPS Next 3Y8.39%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

5

5. AFG Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.73%, AFG has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
  • AFG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 2.84. AFG pays more dividend than 91.22% of the companies in the same industry.
  • AFG's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 1.90.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.73%

5.2 History

  • On average, the dividend of AFG grows each year by 13.79%, which is quite nice.
  • AFG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • The dividend of AFG decreased recently.
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.79%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
AFG Yearly Dividends per shareAFG Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 5 10 15 20 25

5.3 Sustainability

  • AFG pays out 71.97% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
  • The dividend of AFG is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP71.97%
EPS Next 2Y8.66%
EPS Next 3Y8.39%
AFG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendAFG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500M 1B 1.5B 2B
AFG Dividend Payout.AFG Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.AFG Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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AFG Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC

NYSE:AFG (3/27/2026, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 125.78 0 (0%)

125.78

-3.15 (-2.44%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)02-03
Earnings (Next)05-04
Inst Owners68.36%
Inst Owner Change1.83%
Ins Owners17.98%
Ins Owner Change1.35%
Market Cap10.48B
Revenue(TTM)8.14B
Net Income(TTM)842.00M
Analysts70.91
Price Target143.31 (13.94%)
Short Float %3%
Short Ratio2.97
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.73%
Yearly Dividend7.24
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.79%
DP71.97%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
Ex-Date02-13
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)7.61%
Min EPS beat(2)6.15%
Max EPS beat(2)9.06%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)1.32%
Min EPS beat(4)-11.61%
Max EPS beat(4)9.06%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)0.28%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)-1.71%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)2.86%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.66%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.32%
Max Revenue beat(2)0%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-5.32%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.18%
Max Revenue beat(4)0%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.74%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.94%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)2.85%
PT rev (1m)-1.2%
PT rev (3m)0.64%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.08%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-2.74%
EPS NY rev (1m)-2.81%
EPS NY rev (3m)-2.6%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.01%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.67%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 12.22
Fwd PE 11.24
P/S 1.29
P/FCF 7.49
P/OCF 6.83
P/B 2.17
P/tB 2.43
EV/EBITDA 9.22
EPS(TTM)10.29
EY8.18%
EPS(NY)11.2
Fwd EY8.9%
FCF(TTM)16.78
FCFY13.34%
OCF(TTM)18.4
OCFY14.63%
SpS97.72
BVpS57.86
TBVpS51.67
PEG (NY)1.39
PEG (5Y)3.08
Graham Number115.74
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.58%
ROE 17.47%
ROCE 3.36%
ROIC 2.64%
ROICexc 2.79%
ROICexgc 3.04%
OM 13.38%
PM (TTM) 10.34%
GM N/A
FCFM 17.17%
ROA(3y)2.77%
ROA(5y)3.67%
ROE(3y)19.11%
ROE(5y)23.86%
ROIC(3y)2.71%
ROIC(5y)3.07%
ROICexc(3y)2.84%
ROICexc(5y)3.23%
ROICexgc(3y)3.1%
ROICexgc(5y)3.51%
ROCE(3y)3.44%
ROCE(5y)3.9%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-6.59%
ROICexgc growth 5Y45.38%
ROICexc growth 3Y-6.57%
ROICexc growth 5Y43.64%
OM growth 3Y-8.15%
OM growth 5Y12.97%
PM growth 3Y-6.86%
PM growth 5Y-4.11%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.25
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.38
Debt/FCF 1.3
Debt/EBITDA 1.55
Cap/Depr 156.98%
Cap/Sales 1.66%
Interest Coverage 14.72
Cash Conversion 130.47%
Profit Quality 166.03%
Current Ratio 5.61
Quick Ratio 5.61
Altman-Z 0.77
F-Score5
WACC8.33%
ROIC/WACC0.32
Cap/Depr(3y)137.83%
Cap/Depr(5y)106.53%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.39%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.27%
Profit Quality(3y)167.9%
Profit Quality(5y)141.06%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-4.28%
EPS 3Y-4.03%
EPS 5Y3.97%
EPS Q2Q%16.99%
EPS Next Y8.8%
EPS Next 2Y8.66%
EPS Next 3Y8.39%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-1.7%
Revenue growth 3Y5.09%
Revenue growth 5Y7.25%
Sales Q2Q%-2.38%
Revenue Next Year2.68%
Revenue Next 2Y3.64%
Revenue Next 3Y3.73%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y1.3%
EBIT growth 3Y-3.48%
EBIT growth 5Y21.17%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y37.19%
FCF growth 3Y9.42%
FCF growth 5Y-8.02%
OCF growth 1Y33.07%
OCF growth 3Y9.96%
OCF growth 5Y-6.83%

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC / AFG Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to AFG.


What is the valuation status of AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


What is the profitability of AFG stock?

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.


What is the valuation of AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC based on its PE and PB ratios?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) is 12.22 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.17.


What is the expected EPS growth for AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFG) is expected to grow by 8.8% in the next year.