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AES CORP (AES) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:AES - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US00130H1059 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

11.15  +0.14 (+1.27%)

Premarket: 11.26 +0.11 (+0.99%)

Fundamental Rating

4

Overall AES gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated AES against 21 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. AES has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. AES scores decently on growth, while it is valued quite cheap. This could make an interesting combination. Finally AES also has an excellent dividend rating.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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4

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

AES had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AES had a positive cash flow from operations.
In multiple years AES reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years AES had a positive operating cash flow.
AES Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAES Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2B -2B -4B

1.2 Ratios

The Return On Assets of AES (2.05%) is better than 70.00% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 31.16%, AES belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 90.00% of the companies in the same industry.
With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 4.53%, AES is doing good in the industry, outperforming 80.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AES had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 6.39%. This is above the industry average of 4.30%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.05%
ROE 31.16%
ROIC 4.53%
ROA(3y)-0.7%
ROA(5y)-0.21%
ROE(3y)-9%
ROE(5y)-3.03%
ROIC(3y)6.39%
ROIC(5y)6.42%
AES Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAES Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20 -20 -40

1.3 Margins

With a Profit Margin value of 8.34%, AES perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AES's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AES has a Operating Margin of 17.62%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AES outperforms 60.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AES has declined.
With a Gross Margin value of 19.44%, AES is not doing good in the industry: 75.00% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AES has declined.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 17.62%
PM (TTM) 8.34%
GM 19.44%
OM growth 3Y-12.22%
OM growth 5Y-4.18%
PM growth 3Y60.41%
PM growth 5Y-29.4%
GM growth 3Y-10.83%
GM growth 5Y-3.78%
AES Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAES Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 10 -10 20

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1

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), AES is creating some value.
AES has about the same amout of shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, AES has more shares outstanding
AES has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
AES Yearly Shares OutstandingAES Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 200M 400M 600M
AES Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAES Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10B 20B 30B 40B

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.44, we must say that AES is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
AES's Altman-Z score of 0.44 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AES outperforms 60.00% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 7.45 is on the high side and indicates that AES has dependencies on debt financing.
AES has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (7.45) than 85.00% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 7.45
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 0.44
ROIC/WACC0.85
WACC5.34%
AES Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAES Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 5B 10B 15B 20B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 0.85 indicates that AES may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.85, AES is doing worse than 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.80 indicates that AES may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of AES (0.80) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.85
Quick Ratio 0.8
AES Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAES Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2B 4B 6B 8B

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5

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 52.63% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 7.26% on average over the past years.
The Revenue has decreased by -3.73% in the past year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 3.36% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)52.63%
EPS 3Y6.92%
EPS 5Y7.26%
EPS Q2Q%18.33%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.73%
Revenue growth 3Y9.46%
Revenue growth 5Y3.36%
Sales Q2Q%-4.22%

3.2 Future

Based on estimates for the next years, AES will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 8.19% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, AES will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 5.81% on average per year.
EPS Next Y9.56%
EPS Next 2Y8.53%
EPS Next 3Y7.04%
EPS Next 5Y8.19%
Revenue Next Year0.74%
Revenue Next 2Y1.92%
Revenue Next 3Y1.93%
Revenue Next 5Y5.81%

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
AES Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAES Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 5B 10B 15B
AES Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAES Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 1 2 3

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7

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

With a Price/Earnings ratio of 4.81, the valuation of AES can be described as very cheap.
AES's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AES is cheaper than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 28.28, AES is valued rather cheaply.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 5.38 indicates a rather cheap valuation of AES.
AES's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AES is cheaper than 95.00% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AES to the average of the S&P500 Index (91.29), we can say AES is valued rather cheaply.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 4.81
Fwd PE 5.38
AES Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAES Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 50 100 150

4.2 Price Multiples

Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of AES indicates a rather cheap valuation: AES is cheaper than 85.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 10.45
AES Per share dataAES EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 5 -5 10 15

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)0.5
PEG (5Y)0.66
EPS Next 2Y8.53%
EPS Next 3Y7.04%

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8

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 6.11%, AES is a good candidate for dividend investing.
The stock price of AES dropped by -24.20% in the last 3 months. With lower prices the dividend yield is higher, but it may be a sign investors do not trust the long term dividend.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 6.67, AES pays a better dividend. On top of this AES pays more dividend than 85.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.27, AES pays a better dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 6.11%

5.2 History

The dividend of AES has a limited annual growth rate of 4.97%.
AES has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AES has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)4.97%
Div Incr Years12
Div Non Decr Years12
AES Yearly Dividends per shareAES Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0.2 0.4 0.6

5.3 Sustainability

46.05% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AES. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
The dividend of AES is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP46.05%
EPS Next 2Y8.53%
EPS Next 3Y7.04%
AES Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendAES Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 1B -1B -2B -3B -4B
AES Dividend Payout.AES Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.AES Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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AES CORP

NYSE:AES (1/29/2025, 8:04:00 PM)

Premarket: 11.26 +0.11 (+0.99%)

11.15

+0.14 (+1.27%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)10-31 2024-10-31/amc
Earnings (Next)N/A N/A
Inst Owners99.08%
Inst Owner Change-0.25%
Ins Owners0.41%
Ins Owner Change-0.01%
Market Cap7.93B
Analysts78
Price Target19.32 (73.27%)
Short Float %4.43%
Short Ratio2.1
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 6.11%
Yearly Dividend0.66
Dividend Growth(5Y)4.97%
DP46.05%
Div Incr Years12
Div Non Decr Years12
Ex-Date01-31 2025-01-31 (0.17595)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)5.38%
Min EPS beat(2)0.72%
Max EPS beat(2)10.05%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)15.79%
Min EPS beat(4)0.72%
Max EPS beat(4)44.28%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)8.64%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)5.96%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)5.8%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-7.25%
Min Revenue beat(2)-8.58%
Max Revenue beat(2)-5.92%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-7.85%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.45%
Max Revenue beat(4)-4.46%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-3.05%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)2.34%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)3.88%
PT rev (1m)-4%
PT rev (3m)-16.55%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-34.76%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.44%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-12.92%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-1.16%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-3.16%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 4.81
Fwd PE 5.38
P/S 0.65
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 3.63
P/B 2.41
P/tB 7.82
EV/EBITDA 10.45
EPS(TTM)2.32
EY20.81%
EPS(NY)2.07
Fwd EY18.59%
FCF(TTM)-8.31
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)3.07
OCFY27.56%
SpS17.28
BVpS4.63
TBVpS1.43
PEG (NY)0.5
PEG (5Y)0.66
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.05%
ROE 31.16%
ROCE 5.74%
ROIC 4.53%
ROICexc 4.79%
ROICexgc 5.11%
OM 17.62%
PM (TTM) 8.34%
GM 19.44%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)-0.7%
ROA(5y)-0.21%
ROE(3y)-9%
ROE(5y)-3.03%
ROIC(3y)6.39%
ROIC(5y)6.42%
ROICexc(3y)6.74%
ROICexc(5y)6.76%
ROICexgc(3y)7.37%
ROICexgc(5y)7.32%
ROCE(3y)8.09%
ROCE(5y)8.12%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-9.14%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-4.8%
ROICexc growth 3Y-9.47%
ROICexc growth 5Y-5.24%
OM growth 3Y-12.22%
OM growth 5Y-4.18%
PM growth 3Y60.41%
PM growth 5Y-29.4%
GM growth 3Y-10.83%
GM growth 5Y-3.78%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.25
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 7.45
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 7.25
Cap/Depr 664.53%
Cap/Sales 65.89%
Interest Coverage 1.28
Cash Conversion 64.61%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 0.85
Quick Ratio 0.8
Altman-Z 0.44
F-Score6
WACC5.34%
ROIC/WACC0.85
Cap/Depr(3y)439.11%
Cap/Depr(5y)345.07%
Cap/Sales(3y)38.68%
Cap/Sales(5y)31.86%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)52.63%
EPS 3Y6.92%
EPS 5Y7.26%
EPS Q2Q%18.33%
EPS Next Y9.56%
EPS Next 2Y8.53%
EPS Next 3Y7.04%
EPS Next 5Y8.19%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.73%
Revenue growth 3Y9.46%
Revenue growth 5Y3.36%
Sales Q2Q%-4.22%
Revenue Next Year0.74%
Revenue Next 2Y1.92%
Revenue Next 3Y1.93%
Revenue Next 5Y5.81%
EBIT growth 1Y-8.27%
EBIT growth 3Y-3.92%
EBIT growth 5Y-0.95%
EBIT Next Year40.25%
EBIT Next 3Y18.52%
EBIT Next 5Y8.57%
FCF growth 1Y-409.84%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y2.39%
OCF growth 3Y3.68%
OCF growth 5Y4.11%