AES CORP (AES) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AES - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US00130H1059 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, AES scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AES was compared to 19 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. AES has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. AES has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate. AES also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AES was profitable.
In the past year AES had a positive cash flow from operations.
In multiple years AES reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
AES had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 2.66%, AES is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 78.95% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Equity of AES (37.28%) is better than 84.21% of its industry peers.
AES has a better Return On Invested Capital (3.93%) than 78.95% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for AES is in line with the industry average of 3.81%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.66% | ||
| ROE | 37.28% | ||
| ROIC | 3.93% |
ROA(3y)0.89%
ROA(5y)0.31%
ROE(3y)11.23%
ROE(5y)4.16%
ROIC(3y)5.08%
ROIC(5y)6.08%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of AES (10.67%) is better than 63.16% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AES has grown nicely.
The Operating Margin of AES (16.11%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AES has declined.
AES's Gross Margin of 17.96% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AES is outperformed by 68.42% of its industry peers.
AES's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 16.11% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.67% | ||
| GM | 17.96% |
OM growth 3Y-13.37%
OM growth 5Y-4.23%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y35.68%
GM growth 3Y-8.16%
GM growth 5Y-3.95%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AES is destroying value.
AES has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
AES has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AES has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.48, we must say that AES is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 0.48, AES is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.89% of the companies in the same industry.
AES has a Debt/Equity ratio of 7.62. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of AES (7.62) is worse than 78.95% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 7.62 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.48 |
ROIC/WACC0.68
WACC5.77%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.84 indicates that AES may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AES's Current ratio of 0.84 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AES is outperformed by 68.42% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.78 indicates that AES may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of AES (0.78) is worse than 63.16% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.84 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.78 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AES have decreased by -6.86% in the last year.
AES shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 9.23% yearly.
The Revenue has decreased by -3.16% in the past year.
AES shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 3.80% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.86%
EPS 3Y11.42%
EPS 5Y9.23%
EPS Q2Q%-46%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.16%
Revenue growth 3Y3.29%
Revenue growth 5Y3.8%
Sales Q2Q%-5.15%
3.2 Future
AES is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 5.68% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, AES will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 8.94% on average per year.
EPS Next Y1.97%
EPS Next 2Y2.84%
EPS Next 3Y3.54%
EPS Next 5Y5.68%
Revenue Next Year-0.5%
Revenue Next 2Y1.26%
Revenue Next 3Y1.82%
Revenue Next 5Y8.94%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 6.85 indicates a rather cheap valuation of AES.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AES indicates a rather cheap valuation: AES is cheaper than 89.47% of the companies listed in the same industry.
AES's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 27.30.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 5.78, the valuation of AES can be described as very cheap.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AES is valued cheaply inside the industry as 89.47% of the companies are valued more expensively.
AES is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 36.06, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.85 | ||
| Fwd PE | 5.78 |
4.2 Price Multiples
73.68% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AES, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.74 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates AES does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
PEG (NY)3.48
PEG (5Y)0.74
EPS Next 2Y2.84%
EPS Next 3Y3.54%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 5.67%, AES is a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 6.59, AES pays a better dividend. On top of this AES pays more dividend than 84.21% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.34, AES pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.67% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AES has a limited annual growth rate of 5.08%.
AES has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AES has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.08%
Div Incr Years12
Div Non Decr Years12
5.3 Sustainability
38.05% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AES. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of AES is growing around the same rate as the earnings are growing. If this keeps up the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP38.05%
EPS Next 2Y2.84%
EPS Next 3Y3.54%
13.02
-0.12 (-0.91%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners91.3%
Inst Owner Change-0.01%
Ins Owners0.46%
Ins Owner Change0.61%
Market Cap9.27B
Analysts70.53
Price Target13.93 (6.99%)
Short Float %6.77%
Short Ratio2.51
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.67% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.08%
DP38.05%
Div Incr Years12
Div Non Decr Years12
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)15.97%
Min EPS beat(2)-23.78%
Max EPS beat(2)55.73%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)10.68%
Min EPS beat(4)-23.78%
Max EPS beat(4)55.73%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)12.57%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)10.45%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)7.74%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-4.71%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.94%
Max Revenue beat(2)-4.48%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-5.98%
Min Revenue beat(4)-8.58%
Max Revenue beat(4)-4.48%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-6.01%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.39%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)3.22%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-10.17%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.15%
EPS NQ rev (3m)7.83%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.33%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.41%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.25%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.39%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.27%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.85 | ||
| Fwd PE | 5.78 | ||
| P/S | 0.76 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 3.11 | ||
| P/B | 2.67 | ||
| P/tB | 7.86 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.74 |
EPS(TTM)1.9
EY14.59%
EPS(NY)2.25
Fwd EY17.3%
FCF(TTM)-4.94
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)4.19
OCFY32.17%
SpS17.02
BVpS4.87
TBVpS1.66
PEG (NY)3.48
PEG (5Y)0.74
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.66% | ||
| ROE | 37.28% | ||
| ROCE | 4.97% | ||
| ROIC | 3.93% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.12% | ||
| ROICexgc | 4.39% | ||
| OM | 16.11% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.67% | ||
| GM | 17.96% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.89%
ROA(5y)0.31%
ROE(3y)11.23%
ROE(5y)4.16%
ROIC(3y)5.08%
ROIC(5y)6.08%
ROICexc(3y)5.38%
ROICexc(5y)6.39%
ROICexgc(3y)5.79%
ROICexgc(5y)6.93%
ROCE(3y)6.44%
ROCE(5y)7.69%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-20.58%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-6.59%
ROICexc growth 3Y-19.55%
ROICexc growth 5Y-6.69%
OM growth 3Y-13.37%
OM growth 5Y-4.23%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y35.68%
GM growth 3Y-8.16%
GM growth 5Y-3.95%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.25
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 7.62 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 8.15 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 504.11% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 53.62% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.65 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 92.01% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.84 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.78 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.48 |
F-Score5
WACC5.77%
ROIC/WACC0.68
Cap/Depr(3y)567.25%
Cap/Depr(5y)416.01%
Cap/Sales(3y)52.42%
Cap/Sales(5y)39.18%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.86%
EPS 3Y11.42%
EPS 5Y9.23%
EPS Q2Q%-46%
EPS Next Y1.97%
EPS Next 2Y2.84%
EPS Next 3Y3.54%
EPS Next 5Y5.68%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.16%
Revenue growth 3Y3.29%
Revenue growth 5Y3.8%
Sales Q2Q%-5.15%
Revenue Next Year-0.5%
Revenue Next 2Y1.26%
Revenue Next 3Y1.82%
Revenue Next 5Y8.94%
EBIT growth 1Y-15.24%
EBIT growth 3Y-10.52%
EBIT growth 5Y-0.59%
EBIT Next Year31.05%
EBIT Next 3Y16.83%
EBIT Next 5Y9.33%
FCF growth 1Y-47.98%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y0.74%
OCF growth 3Y13.34%
OCF growth 5Y3.54%