AES CORP (AES) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AES - US00130H1059 - Common Stock
14.32 USD
+0.1 (+0.7%)
14.338 USD
+0.02 (+0.13%)
AES gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 20 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. While AES is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. AES has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate. AES also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AES had positive earnings in the past year.
AES had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AES reported negative net income in multiple years.
AES had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
AES has a better Return On Assets (2.23%) than 80.00% of its industry peers.
AES has a better Return On Equity (29.37%) than 95.00% of its industry peers.
AES has a Return On Invested Capital of 3.43%. This is in the better half of the industry: AES outperforms 75.00% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for AES is in line with the industry average of 4.09%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.23% | ||
| ROE | 29.37% | ||
| ROIC | 3.43% |
ROA(3y)0.89%
ROA(5y)0.31%
ROE(3y)11.23%
ROE(5y)4.16%
ROIC(3y)5.05%
ROIC(5y)6.06%
1.3 Margins
With a decent Profit Margin value of 9.38%, AES is doing good in the industry, outperforming 70.00% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AES has grown nicely.
AES's Operating Margin of 14.83% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AES outperforms 70.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AES has declined.
AES has a worse Gross Margin (17.26%) than 80.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AES has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 14.83% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 17.26% |
OM growth 3Y-13.97%
OM growth 5Y-4.63%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y35.68%
GM growth 3Y-8.16%
GM growth 5Y-3.95%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AES is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, AES has more shares outstanding
AES has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AES has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
AES has an Altman-Z score of 0.44. This is a bad value and indicates that AES is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of AES (0.44) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
AES has a Debt/Equity ratio of 6.85. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
AES's Debt to Equity ratio of 6.85 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AES is outperformed by 80.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 6.85 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.44 |
ROIC/WACC0.54
WACC6.33%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.72 indicates that AES may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AES has a worse Current ratio (0.72) than 65.00% of its industry peers.
AES has a Quick Ratio of 0.72. This is a bad value and indicates that AES is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.66, AES is doing worse than 65.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.72 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.66 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AES shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -10.78%.
AES shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 9.23% yearly.
Looking at the last year, AES shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -1.55% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 3.80% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-10.78%
EPS 3Y11.42%
EPS 5Y9.23%
EPS Q2Q%5.63%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-1.55%
Revenue growth 3Y3.29%
Revenue growth 5Y3.8%
Sales Q2Q%1.89%
3.2 Future
AES is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 5.68% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 8.94% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y2.23%
EPS Next 2Y4.6%
EPS Next 3Y3.8%
EPS Next 5Y5.68%
Revenue Next Year-2.73%
Revenue Next 2Y0.69%
Revenue Next 3Y1.86%
Revenue Next 5Y8.94%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 6.92, the valuation of AES can be described as very cheap.
AES's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AES is cheaper than 95.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.19, AES is valued rather cheaply.
AES is valuated cheaply with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 6.15.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AES is valued cheaply inside the industry as 100.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.88, AES is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.92 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6.15 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of AES indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AES is cheaper than 65.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.31 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates AES does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
PEG (NY)3.11
PEG (5Y)0.75
EPS Next 2Y4.6%
EPS Next 3Y3.8%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AES has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 4.95%, which is a nice return.
AES's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 1.42. AES pays more dividend than 90.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AES's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 1.94.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 4.95% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AES has a limited annual growth rate of 5.08%.
AES has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AES has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.08%
Div Incr Years12
Div Non Decr Years12
5.3 Sustainability
43.88% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AES. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
AES's earnings are growing around the same pace than its dividend. As long as the earnings growth is kept the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP43.88%
EPS Next 2Y4.6%
EPS Next 3Y3.8%
14.32
+0.1 (+0.7%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners90.61%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.46%
Ins Owner Change-0.36%
Market Cap10.20B
Revenue(TTM)12.09B
Net Income(TTM)1.14B
Analysts74.74
Price Target15.62 (9.08%)
Short Float %3.09%
Short Ratio2.86
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 4.95% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.08%
DP43.88%
Div Incr Years12
Div Non Decr Years12
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)12.94%
Min EPS beat(2)-1.83%
Max EPS beat(2)27.71%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)14.46%
Min EPS beat(4)-23.78%
Max EPS beat(4)55.73%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)15.12%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)10.58%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)8.08%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.63%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.89%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.17%
Min Revenue beat(4)-6.15%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.89%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-5.51%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-3.09%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.96%
PT rev (1m)0.55%
PT rev (3m)12.37%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.81%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-15.84%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.19%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.06%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.16%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-5.11%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.09%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.41%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.92 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6.15 | ||
| P/S | 0.84 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 2.41 | ||
| P/B | 2.64 | ||
| P/tB | 6.78 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.31 |
EPS(TTM)2.07
EY14.46%
EPS(NY)2.33
Fwd EY16.27%
FCF(TTM)-2.66
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)5.94
OCFY41.46%
SpS16.98
BVpS5.43
TBVpS2.11
PEG (NY)3.11
PEG (5Y)0.75
Graham Number15.9
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.23% | ||
| ROE | 29.37% | ||
| ROCE | 4.34% | ||
| ROIC | 3.43% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.58% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.8% | ||
| OM | 14.83% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 17.26% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.89%
ROA(5y)0.31%
ROE(3y)11.23%
ROE(5y)4.16%
ROIC(3y)5.05%
ROIC(5y)6.06%
ROICexc(3y)5.35%
ROICexc(5y)6.38%
ROICexgc(3y)5.76%
ROICexgc(5y)6.92%
ROCE(3y)6.4%
ROCE(5y)7.67%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-21.13%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-6.98%
ROICexc growth 3Y-20.11%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.08%
OM growth 3Y-13.97%
OM growth 5Y-4.63%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y35.68%
GM growth 3Y-8.16%
GM growth 5Y-3.95%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.24
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 6.85 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 8.3 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 439.1% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 50.61% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.75 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 132.66% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.72 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.66 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.44 |
F-Score4
WACC6.33%
ROIC/WACC0.54
Cap/Depr(3y)567.25%
Cap/Depr(5y)416.01%
Cap/Sales(3y)52.42%
Cap/Sales(5y)39.18%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-10.78%
EPS 3Y11.42%
EPS 5Y9.23%
EPS Q2Q%5.63%
EPS Next Y2.23%
EPS Next 2Y4.6%
EPS Next 3Y3.8%
EPS Next 5Y5.68%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-1.55%
Revenue growth 3Y3.29%
Revenue growth 5Y3.8%
Sales Q2Q%1.89%
Revenue Next Year-2.73%
Revenue Next 2Y0.69%
Revenue Next 3Y1.86%
Revenue Next 5Y8.94%
EBIT growth 1Y-17.14%
EBIT growth 3Y-11.13%
EBIT growth 5Y-1%
EBIT Next Year28.83%
EBIT Next 3Y16.59%
EBIT Next 5Y10.02%
FCF growth 1Y48.35%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y21.84%
OCF growth 3Y13.34%
OCF growth 5Y3.54%
AES CORP / AES FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of AES CORP (AES) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AES.
What is the valuation status for AES stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to AES CORP (AES). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of AES stock?
AES CORP (AES) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
What is the financial health of AES CORP (AES) stock?
The financial health rating of AES CORP (AES) is 0 / 10.
Is the dividend of AES CORP sustainable?
The dividend rating of AES CORP (AES) is 8 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 43.88%.