AES CORP (AES) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AES - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US00130H1059 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to AES. AES was compared to 19 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. AES has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. AES is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate. AES also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AES had positive earnings in the past year.
AES had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AES reported negative net income in multiple years.
Each year in the past 5 years AES had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
AES has a better Return On Assets (2.05%) than 66.67% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 31.16%, AES belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 88.89% of the companies in the same industry.
AES's Return On Invested Capital of 4.53% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AES outperforms 77.78% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for AES is above the industry average of 4.21%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.05% | ||
| ROE | 31.16% | ||
| ROIC | 4.53% |
ROA(3y)-0.7%
ROA(5y)-0.21%
ROE(3y)-9%
ROE(5y)-3.03%
ROIC(3y)6.39%
ROIC(5y)6.42%
1.3 Margins
AES has a Profit Margin (8.34%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
AES's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AES's Operating Margin of 17.62% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AES outperforms 55.56% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AES has declined.
The Gross Margin of AES (19.44%) is worse than 77.78% of its industry peers.
AES's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 17.62% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.34% | ||
| GM | 19.44% |
OM growth 3Y-12.22%
OM growth 5Y-4.18%
PM growth 3Y60.41%
PM growth 5Y-29.4%
GM growth 3Y-10.83%
GM growth 5Y-3.78%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), AES is creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for AES remains at a similar level compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, AES has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, AES has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
AES has an Altman-Z score of 0.44. This is a bad value and indicates that AES is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 0.44, AES perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 55.56% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 7.45 is on the high side and indicates that AES has dependencies on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 7.45, AES is doing worse than 83.33% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 7.45 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.44 |
ROIC/WACC0.84
WACC5.4%
2.3 Liquidity
AES has a Current Ratio of 0.85. This is a bad value and indicates that AES is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of AES (0.85) is worse than 66.67% of its industry peers.
AES has a Quick Ratio of 0.85. This is a bad value and indicates that AES is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.80, AES is not doing good in the industry: 61.11% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.85 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.8 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 52.63% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 7.26% on average over the past years.
AES shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -3.73%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 3.36% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)52.63%
EPS 3Y6.92%
EPS 5Y7.26%
EPS Q2Q%18.33%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.73%
Revenue growth 3Y9.46%
Revenue growth 5Y3.36%
Sales Q2Q%-4.22%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AES will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 7.34% on average per year.
AES is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 5.66% yearly.
EPS Next Y9.58%
EPS Next 2Y8.04%
EPS Next 3Y6.97%
EPS Next 5Y7.34%
Revenue Next Year1.1%
Revenue Next 2Y2.12%
Revenue Next 3Y1.88%
Revenue Next 5Y5.66%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 5.00, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of AES.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AES is valued cheaply inside the industry as 100.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
AES's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 29.98.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 5.64, the valuation of AES can be described as very cheap.
AES's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AES is cheaper than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AES to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.66), we can say AES is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5 | ||
| Fwd PE | 5.64 |
4.2 Price Multiples
77.78% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AES, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.54 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)0.52
PEG (5Y)0.69
EPS Next 2Y8.04%
EPS Next 3Y6.97%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 6.07%, AES is a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 4.74, AES pays a better dividend. On top of this AES pays more dividend than 88.89% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.30, AES pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 6.07% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AES has a limited annual growth rate of 4.97%.
AES has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AES has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)4.97%
Div Incr Years12
Div Non Decr Years12
5.3 Sustainability
AES pays out 46.05% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
AES's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP46.05%
EPS Next 2Y8.04%
EPS Next 3Y6.97%
11.59
+1.21 (+11.66%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners94.87%
Inst Owner Change-5.68%
Ins Owners0.41%
Ins Owner Change0.59%
Market Cap8.24B
Analysts77.89
Price Target16.55 (42.8%)
Short Float %5.08%
Short Ratio2.6
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 6.07% |
Yearly Dividend0.66
Dividend Growth(5Y)4.97%
DP46.05%
Div Incr Years12
Div Non Decr Years12
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)5.38%
Min EPS beat(2)0.72%
Max EPS beat(2)10.05%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)15.79%
Min EPS beat(4)0.72%
Max EPS beat(4)44.28%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)8.64%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)5.96%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)5.8%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-7.25%
Min Revenue beat(2)-8.58%
Max Revenue beat(2)-5.92%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-7.85%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.45%
Max Revenue beat(4)-4.46%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-3.05%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)2.34%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)3.88%
PT rev (1m)-2.61%
PT rev (3m)-24.87%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-18.88%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-10.2%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.42%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.84%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.58%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.77%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.36%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-5.27%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5 | ||
| Fwd PE | 5.64 | ||
| P/S | 0.67 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 3.77 | ||
| P/B | 2.5 | ||
| P/tB | 8.13 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.54 |
EPS(TTM)2.32
EY20.02%
EPS(NY)2.05
Fwd EY17.73%
FCF(TTM)-8.31
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)3.07
OCFY26.51%
SpS17.28
BVpS4.63
TBVpS1.43
PEG (NY)0.52
PEG (5Y)0.69
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.05% | ||
| ROE | 31.16% | ||
| ROCE | 5.74% | ||
| ROIC | 4.53% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.79% | ||
| ROICexgc | 5.11% | ||
| OM | 17.62% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.34% | ||
| GM | 19.44% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)-0.7%
ROA(5y)-0.21%
ROE(3y)-9%
ROE(5y)-3.03%
ROIC(3y)6.39%
ROIC(5y)6.42%
ROICexc(3y)6.74%
ROICexc(5y)6.76%
ROICexgc(3y)7.37%
ROICexgc(5y)7.32%
ROCE(3y)8.09%
ROCE(5y)8.12%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-9.14%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-4.8%
ROICexc growth 3Y-9.47%
ROICexc growth 5Y-5.24%
OM growth 3Y-12.22%
OM growth 5Y-4.18%
PM growth 3Y60.41%
PM growth 5Y-29.4%
GM growth 3Y-10.83%
GM growth 5Y-3.78%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.25
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 7.45 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 7.25 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 664.53% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 65.89% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.28 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 64.61% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.85 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.8 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.44 |
F-Score6
WACC5.4%
ROIC/WACC0.84
Cap/Depr(3y)439.11%
Cap/Depr(5y)345.07%
Cap/Sales(3y)38.68%
Cap/Sales(5y)31.86%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)52.63%
EPS 3Y6.92%
EPS 5Y7.26%
EPS Q2Q%18.33%
EPS Next Y9.58%
EPS Next 2Y8.04%
EPS Next 3Y6.97%
EPS Next 5Y7.34%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.73%
Revenue growth 3Y9.46%
Revenue growth 5Y3.36%
Sales Q2Q%-4.22%
Revenue Next Year1.1%
Revenue Next 2Y2.12%
Revenue Next 3Y1.88%
Revenue Next 5Y5.66%
EBIT growth 1Y-8.27%
EBIT growth 3Y-3.92%
EBIT growth 5Y-0.95%
EBIT Next Year38.75%
EBIT Next 3Y18.16%
EBIT Next 5Y10.07%
FCF growth 1Y-409.84%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y2.39%
OCF growth 3Y3.68%
OCF growth 5Y4.11%