AERCAP HOLDINGS NV (AER) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AER - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - NL0000687663 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall AER gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated AER against 48 industry peers in the Trading Companies & Distributors industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AER while its profitability can be described as average. AER has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AER had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AER had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AER reported negative net income in multiple years.
In the past 5 years AER always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
With a Return On Assets value of 2.95%, AER perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AER has a Return On Equity (12.43%) which is in line with its industry peers.
AER has a Return On Invested Capital of 4.68%. This is in the lower half of the industry: AER underperforms 62.50% of its industry peers.
AER had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 4.47%. This is significantly below the industry average of 9.62%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (4.68%) for AER is above the 3 year average (4.47%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.95% | ||
| ROE | 12.43% | ||
| ROIC | 4.68% |
ROA(3y)2.1%
ROA(5y)1.39%
ROE(3y)8.87%
ROE(5y)5.86%
ROIC(3y)4.47%
ROIC(5y)4.4%
1.3 Margins
AER has a Profit Margin of 28.93%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AER outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
AER's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
AER has a Operating Margin of 48.13%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AER outperforms 97.92% of its industry peers.
AER's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 89.95%, AER belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 97.92% of the companies in the same industry.
AER's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 48.13% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 28.93% | ||
| GM | 89.95% |
OM growth 3Y-4.25%
OM growth 5Y-2.3%
PM growth 3Y13.61%
PM growth 5Y3.44%
GM growth 3Y-1.74%
GM growth 5Y-1.08%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AER is destroying value.
AER has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for AER has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AER has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.77, we must say that AER is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of AER (0.77) is worse than 91.67% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.69 is on the high side and indicates that AER has dependencies on debt financing.
AER has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (2.69) than 83.33% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.69 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.77 |
ROIC/WACC0.86
WACC5.46%
2.3 Liquidity
AER has a Current Ratio of 1.26. This is a normal value and indicates that AER is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of AER (1.26) is worse than 85.42% of its industry peers.
AER has a Quick Ratio of 1.24. This is a normal value and indicates that AER is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 1.24, AER perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.26 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.24 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AER have decreased strongly by -10.20% in the last year.
AER shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 7.30% yearly.
AER shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 2.84%.
The Revenue has been growing by 9.12% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-10.2%
EPS 3Y13.18%
EPS 5Y7.3%
EPS Q2Q%11.85%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.84%
Revenue growth 3Y12.68%
Revenue growth 5Y9.12%
Sales Q2Q%2.92%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AER will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 6.86% on average per year.
AER is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 2.11% yearly.
EPS Next Y5.42%
EPS Next 2Y6.3%
EPS Next 3Y6.86%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year3.55%
Revenue Next 2Y2.75%
Revenue Next 3Y2.11%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 9.23, the valuation of AER can be described as reasonable.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AER is valued cheaply inside the industry as 93.75% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.30, AER is valued rather cheaply.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 8.43, the valuation of AER can be described as very reasonable.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AER is valued cheaply inside the industry as 89.58% of the companies are valued more expensively.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AER to the average of the S&P500 Index (21.76), we can say AER is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.23 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.43 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as AER.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.69 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AER's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of AER may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)1.7
PEG (5Y)1.26
EPS Next 2Y6.3%
EPS Next 3Y6.86%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AER has a yearly dividend return of 0.91%, which is pretty low.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.01, AER pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.35, AER's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.91% |
5.2 History
AER is new to the dividend game and has less than 3 years of track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
AER pays out 6.81% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP6.81%
EPS Next 2Y6.3%
EPS Next 3Y6.86%
114.52
-0.23 (-0.2%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCapital Goods
GICS IndustryTrading Companies & Distributors
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners91.72%
Inst Owner Change0.02%
Ins Owners3.02%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap20.76B
Analysts81.43
Price Target127.63 (11.45%)
Short Float %1.53%
Short Ratio1.96
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.91% |
Yearly Dividend0.72
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP6.81%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)30.03%
Min EPS beat(2)27.36%
Max EPS beat(2)32.7%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)21.26%
Min EPS beat(4)-0.94%
Max EPS beat(4)32.7%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)30.11%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)31.82%
EPS beat(16)14
Avg EPS beat(16)27.34%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)3.36%
Min Revenue beat(2)2.17%
Max Revenue beat(2)4.56%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)2.47%
Min Revenue beat(4)0.52%
Max Revenue beat(4)4.56%
Revenue beat(8)6
Avg Revenue beat(8)1.8%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.17%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)2.74%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)2.46%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-1%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.45%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.22%
EPS NY rev (3m)7.65%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.23%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.01%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.36%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.23 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.43 | ||
| P/S | 2.81 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 3.85 | ||
| P/B | 1.21 | ||
| P/tB | 1.38 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.69 |
EPS(TTM)12.41
EY10.84%
EPS(NY)13.58
Fwd EY11.86%
FCF(TTM)-11.53
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)29.77
OCFY25.99%
SpS40.75
BVpS94.84
TBVpS83.07
PEG (NY)1.7
PEG (5Y)1.26
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.95% | ||
| ROE | 12.43% | ||
| ROCE | 5.3% | ||
| ROIC | 4.68% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.76% | ||
| ROICexgc | 4.93% | ||
| OM | 48.13% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 28.93% | ||
| GM | 89.95% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)2.1%
ROA(5y)1.39%
ROE(3y)8.87%
ROE(5y)5.86%
ROIC(3y)4.47%
ROIC(5y)4.4%
ROICexc(3y)4.58%
ROICexc(5y)4.51%
ROICexgc(3y)4.81%
ROICexgc(5y)4.74%
ROCE(3y)5.06%
ROCE(5y)4.98%
ROICexcg growth 3Y8.2%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-3.59%
ROICexc growth 3Y9.48%
ROICexc growth 5Y-3.64%
OM growth 3Y-4.25%
OM growth 5Y-2.3%
PM growth 3Y13.61%
PM growth 5Y3.44%
GM growth 3Y-1.74%
GM growth 5Y-1.08%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.1
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.69 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 7.5 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 287.22% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 101.34% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.87 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 87.57% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.26 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.24 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.77 |
F-Score6
WACC5.46%
ROIC/WACC0.86
Cap/Depr(3y)223.23%
Cap/Depr(5y)168.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)78.34%
Cap/Sales(5y)59.35%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-10.2%
EPS 3Y13.18%
EPS 5Y7.3%
EPS Q2Q%11.85%
EPS Next Y5.42%
EPS Next 2Y6.3%
EPS Next 3Y6.86%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.84%
Revenue growth 3Y12.68%
Revenue growth 5Y9.12%
Sales Q2Q%2.92%
Revenue Next Year3.55%
Revenue Next 2Y2.75%
Revenue Next 3Y2.11%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y0.79%
EBIT growth 3Y7.89%
EBIT growth 5Y6.61%
EBIT Next Year65.97%
EBIT Next 3Y19.86%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-424.34%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y3.81%
OCF growth 3Y13.75%
OCF growth 5Y11.85%