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AERCAP HOLDINGS NV (AER) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:AER - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - NL0000687663 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

101.59  -0.95 (-0.93%)

Fundamental Rating

3

AER gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 48 industry peers in the Trading Companies & Distributors industry. AER has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. AER is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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6

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year AER was profitable.
In the past year AER had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AER reported negative net income in multiple years.
Of the past 5 years AER 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
AER Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAER Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2B -2B 4B

1.2 Ratios

AER has a Return On Assets of 3.43%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AER outperforms 44.68% of its industry peers.
AER has a Return On Equity (15.12%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
AER's Return On Invested Capital of 4.73% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AER is outperformed by 68.09% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for AER is significantly below the industry average of 9.86%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (4.73%) for AER is above the 3 year average (4.22%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 3.43%
ROE 15.12%
ROIC 4.73%
ROA(3y)1.57%
ROA(5y)1.32%
ROE(3y)6.81%
ROE(5y)5.87%
ROIC(3y)4.22%
ROIC(5y)4.72%
AER Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAER Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 5 10 15

1.3 Margins

AER's Profit Margin of 34.52% is amongst the best of the industry. AER outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AER has grown nicely.
With an excellent Operating Margin value of 48.57%, AER belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.87% of the companies in the same industry.
AER's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 90.03%, AER belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 97.87% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AER has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 48.57%
PM (TTM) 34.52%
GM 90.03%
OM growth 3Y-2.09%
OM growth 5Y0.28%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y14.9%
GM growth 3Y-1.61%
GM growth 5Y-0.21%
AER Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAER Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20 40 60 80

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2

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), AER is creating some value.
There is no outstanding debt for AER. This means it has a Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratio of 0 and it is amongst the best of the sector and industry.
AER Yearly Shares OutstandingAER Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 50M 100M 150M 200M
AER Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAER Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20B 40B 60B

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.75, we must say that AER is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
AER has a worse Altman-Z score (0.75) than 85.11% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.89 is on the high side and indicates that AER has dependencies on debt financing.
AER has a Debt to Equity ratio of 2.89. This is amonst the worse of the industry: AER underperforms 82.98% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.89
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 0.75
ROIC/WACC1.03
WACC4.61%
AER Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAER Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 10B 20B 30B 40B 50B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 1.71 indicates that AER should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of AER (1.71) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
AER has a Quick Ratio of 1.69. This is a normal value and indicates that AER is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AER has a better Quick ratio (1.69) than 74.47% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.71
Quick Ratio 1.69
AER Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAER Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2B 4B 6B

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1

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The earnings per share for AER have decreased by -6.60% in the last year.
Measured over the past 5 years, AER shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 7.30% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.6%
EPS 3Y13.18%
EPS 5Y7.3%
EPS Q2Q%6.43%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%9.15%

3.2 Future

Based on estimates for the next years, AER will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 5.22% on average per year.
AER is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 2.23% yearly.
EPS Next Y1.78%
EPS Next 2Y5.22%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year2.52%
Revenue Next 2Y2.23%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
AER Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAER Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2B 4B 6B 8B
AER Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAER Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 5 10

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5

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

With a Price/Earnings ratio of 8.45, the valuation of AER can be described as very reasonable.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AER is valued cheaply inside the industry as 97.87% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 29.01. AER is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 8.30, which indicates a very decent valuation of AER.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AER is valued cheaply inside the industry as 93.62% of the companies are valued more expensively.
AER's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 22.40.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 8.45
Fwd PE 8.3
AER Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAER Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as AER.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 10.47
AER Per share dataAER EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 20 40 60 80

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates AER does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
The decent profitability rating of AER may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)4.76
PEG (5Y)1.16
EPS Next 2Y5.22%
EPS Next 3YN/A

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1

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

AER has a yearly dividend return of 0.99%, which is pretty low.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.92, AER pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.99, AER pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.27.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.99%

5.2 History

AER is new to the dividend game and has less than 3 years of track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
AER Yearly Dividends per shareAER Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2024 0.2 0.4 0.6

5.3 Sustainability

DPN/A
EPS Next 2Y5.22%
EPS Next 3YN/A
AER Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendAER Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2B -2B

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AERCAP HOLDINGS NV

NYSE:AER (2/28/2025, 10:03:05 AM)

101.59

-0.95 (-0.93%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCapital Goods
GICS IndustryTrading Companies & Distributors
Earnings (Last)02-26 2025-02-26/bmo
Earnings (Next)04-29 2025-04-29/bmo
Inst Owners89.75%
Inst Owner Change0.5%
Ins Owners3.4%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap19.27B
Analysts82.86
Price Target115.03 (13.23%)
Short Float %1.42%
Short Ratio2.68
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.99%
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)12.48%
Min EPS beat(2)-0.94%
Max EPS beat(2)25.91%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)21.41%
Min EPS beat(4)-0.94%
Max EPS beat(4)35.2%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)28.91%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)24.99%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)26.48%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.58%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.52%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.63%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.97%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.43%
Max Revenue beat(4)3.17%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)1.15%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.22%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)2.63%
PT rev (1m)-0.29%
PT rev (3m)3.68%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.94%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0.94%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.36%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.22%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.71%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.71%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.11%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.19%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 8.45
Fwd PE 8.3
P/S 2.63
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 3.47
P/B 1.15
P/tB 1.35
EV/EBITDA 10.47
EPS(TTM)12.02
EY11.83%
EPS(NY)12.23
Fwd EY12.04%
FCF(TTM)-5.36
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)29.26
OCFY28.8%
SpS38.67
BVpS88.3
TBVpS75.5
PEG (NY)4.76
PEG (5Y)1.16
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 3.43%
ROE 15.12%
ROCE 5.19%
ROIC 4.73%
ROICexc 5%
ROICexgc 5.21%
OM 48.57%
PM (TTM) 34.52%
GM 90.03%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)1.57%
ROA(5y)1.32%
ROE(3y)6.81%
ROE(5y)5.87%
ROIC(3y)4.22%
ROIC(5y)4.72%
ROICexc(3y)4.33%
ROICexc(5y)4.85%
ROICexgc(3y)4.61%
ROICexgc(5y)5.09%
ROCE(3y)4.64%
ROCE(5y)5.18%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-3.38%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-3.79%
ROICexc growth 3Y-4.07%
ROICexc growth 5Y-3.72%
OM growth 3Y-2.09%
OM growth 5Y0.28%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y14.9%
GM growth 3Y-1.61%
GM growth 5Y-0.21%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.1
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.89
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 7.9
Cap/Depr 257.16%
Cap/Sales 89.52%
Interest Coverage 2.01
Cash Conversion 90.74%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 1.71
Quick Ratio 1.69
Altman-Z 0.75
F-Score8
WACC4.61%
ROIC/WACC1.03
Cap/Depr(3y)172.08%
Cap/Depr(5y)174.06%
Cap/Sales(3y)59.94%
Cap/Sales(5y)61.25%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.6%
EPS 3Y13.18%
EPS 5Y7.3%
EPS Q2Q%6.43%
EPS Next Y1.78%
EPS Next 2Y5.22%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%9.15%
Revenue Next Year2.52%
Revenue Next 2Y2.23%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y10.17%
EBIT growth 3Y14.75%
EBIT growth 5Y9.35%
EBIT Next Year61.68%
EBIT Next 3Y19.87%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-170.02%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y3.68%
OCF growth 3Y35.17%
OCF growth 5Y13.12%