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AERCAP HOLDINGS NV (AER) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:AER - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - NL0000687663 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

97.35  +2.22 (+2.33%)

After market: 97.38 +0.03 (+0.03%)

Fundamental Rating

4

Taking everything into account, AER scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AER was compared to 48 industry peers in the Trading Companies & Distributors industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AER while its profitability can be described as average. AER is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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6

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

AER had positive earnings in the past year.
AER had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years AER reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
In the past 5 years AER always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
AER Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAER Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 2B -2B 4B

1.2 Ratios

AER has a Return On Assets (2.94%) which is in line with its industry peers.
AER has a Return On Equity (12.21%) which is in line with its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 4.64%, AER is doing worse than 66.67% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for AER is below the industry average of 9.25%.
The 3 year average ROIC (4.47%) for AER is below the current ROIC(4.64%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.94%
ROE 12.21%
ROIC 4.64%
ROA(3y)2.1%
ROA(5y)1.39%
ROE(3y)8.87%
ROE(5y)5.86%
ROIC(3y)4.47%
ROIC(5y)4.4%
AER Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAER Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 5 10 15

1.3 Margins

AER has a better Profit Margin (28.57%) than 100.00% of its industry peers.
AER's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
AER's Operating Margin of 47.19% is amongst the best of the industry. AER outperforms 97.92% of its industry peers.
AER's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AER's Gross Margin of 88.97% is amongst the best of the industry. AER outperforms 97.92% of its industry peers.
AER's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 47.19%
PM (TTM) 28.57%
GM 88.97%
OM growth 3Y-4.25%
OM growth 5Y-2.3%
PM growth 3Y13.61%
PM growth 5Y3.44%
GM growth 3Y-1.74%
GM growth 5Y-1.08%
AER Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAER Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 20 40 60 80

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2

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AER is destroying value.
AER has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, AER has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, AER has an improved debt to assets ratio.
AER Yearly Shares OutstandingAER Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 50M 100M 150M 200M
AER Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAER Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20B 40B 60B

2.2 Solvency

AER has an Altman-Z score of 0.72. This is a bad value and indicates that AER is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 0.72, AER is not doing good in the industry: 89.58% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.64 is on the high side and indicates that AER has dependencies on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of AER (2.64) is worse than 79.17% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.64
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 0.72
ROIC/WACC0.86
WACC5.37%
AER Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAER Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 10B 20B 30B 40B 50B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 1.12 indicates that AER should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.12, AER is doing worse than 83.33% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 1.11 indicates that AER should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of AER (1.11) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.12
Quick Ratio 1.11
AER Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAER Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2B 4B 6B

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3

3. Growth

3.1 Past

AER shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -6.60%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 7.30% on average over the past years.
AER shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 3.59%.
Measured over the past years, AER shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 9.12% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.6%
EPS 3Y13.18%
EPS 5Y7.3%
EPS Q2Q%6.43%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.59%
Revenue growth 3Y12.68%
Revenue growth 5Y9.12%
Sales Q2Q%9.15%

3.2 Future

AER is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 5.72% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 2.26% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-2.07%
EPS Next 2Y4.12%
EPS Next 3Y5.72%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year2.16%
Revenue Next 2Y2.59%
Revenue Next 3Y2.26%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
AER Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAER Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2B 4B 6B 8B
AER Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAER Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 0 5 10

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5

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 8.10, the valuation of AER can be described as reasonable.
97.92% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AER, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 28.29. AER is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
AER is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 8.27.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AER is valued cheaply inside the industry as 91.67% of the companies are valued more expensively.
AER is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.08, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 8.1
Fwd PE 8.27
AER Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAER Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as AER.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 10.3
AER Per share dataAER EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 20 40 60 80

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The decent profitability rating of AER may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.11
EPS Next 2Y4.12%
EPS Next 3Y5.72%

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2

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.13%, AER has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.26, AER has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
With a Dividend Yield of 1.13, AER pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.57.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.13%

5.2 History

AER is new to the dividend game and has less than 3 years of track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
AER Yearly Dividends per shareAER Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2024 2025 0.2 0.4 0.6

5.3 Sustainability

6.67% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AER. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP6.67%
EPS Next 2Y4.12%
EPS Next 3Y5.72%
AER Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendAER Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 2B -2B
AER Dividend Payout.AER Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.AER Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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AERCAP HOLDINGS NV

NYSE:AER (4/17/2025, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 97.38 +0.03 (+0.03%)

97.35

+2.22 (+2.33%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCapital Goods
GICS IndustryTrading Companies & Distributors
Earnings (Last)02-26 2025-02-26/bmo
Earnings (Next)04-30 2025-04-30/bmo
Inst Owners89.75%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners3.4%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap18.18B
Analysts82.86
Price Target124.57 (27.96%)
Short Float %0.91%
Short Ratio1.14
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.13%
Yearly Dividend0.72
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP6.67%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date03-12 2025-03-12 (0.27)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)13.21%
Min EPS beat(2)-0.94%
Max EPS beat(2)27.36%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)21.88%
Min EPS beat(4)-0.94%
Max EPS beat(4)35.2%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)28.19%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)33.67%
EPS beat(16)14
Avg EPS beat(16)32.99%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)2.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.52%
Max Revenue beat(2)4.56%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)2.72%
Min Revenue beat(4)0.52%
Max Revenue beat(4)4.56%
Revenue beat(8)6
Avg Revenue beat(8)2.14%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.33%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)2.99%
PT rev (1m)3.17%
PT rev (3m)7.97%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.06%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-7.81%
EPS NY rev (1m)-3.78%
EPS NY rev (3m)-3.74%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.25%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.07%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.06%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 8.1
Fwd PE 8.27
P/S 2.48
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 3.34
P/B 1.06
P/tB 1.22
EV/EBITDA 10.3
EPS(TTM)12.02
EY12.35%
EPS(NY)11.77
Fwd EY12.09%
FCF(TTM)-6.32
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)29.11
OCFY29.9%
SpS39.33
BVpS92
TBVpS79.85
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.11
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.94%
ROE 12.21%
ROCE 5.24%
ROIC 4.64%
ROICexc 4.72%
ROICexgc 4.91%
OM 47.19%
PM (TTM) 28.57%
GM 88.97%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)2.1%
ROA(5y)1.39%
ROE(3y)8.87%
ROE(5y)5.86%
ROIC(3y)4.47%
ROIC(5y)4.4%
ROICexc(3y)4.58%
ROICexc(5y)4.51%
ROICexgc(3y)4.81%
ROICexgc(5y)4.74%
ROCE(3y)5.06%
ROCE(5y)4.98%
ROICexcg growth 3Y8.2%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-3.59%
ROICexc growth 3Y9.48%
ROICexc growth 5Y-3.64%
OM growth 3Y-4.25%
OM growth 5Y-2.3%
PM growth 3Y13.61%
PM growth 5Y3.44%
GM growth 3Y-1.74%
GM growth 5Y-1.08%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.1
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.64
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 7.49
Cap/Depr 256.44%
Cap/Sales 90.07%
Interest Coverage 1.92
Cash Conversion 89.92%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 1.12
Quick Ratio 1.11
Altman-Z 0.72
F-Score6
WACC5.37%
ROIC/WACC0.86
Cap/Depr(3y)223.23%
Cap/Depr(5y)168.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)78.34%
Cap/Sales(5y)59.35%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.6%
EPS 3Y13.18%
EPS 5Y7.3%
EPS Q2Q%6.43%
EPS Next Y-2.07%
EPS Next 2Y4.12%
EPS Next 3Y5.72%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.59%
Revenue growth 3Y12.68%
Revenue growth 5Y9.12%
Sales Q2Q%9.15%
Revenue Next Year2.16%
Revenue Next 2Y2.59%
Revenue Next 3Y2.26%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y2.26%
EBIT growth 3Y7.89%
EBIT growth 5Y6.61%
EBIT Next Year63.17%
EBIT Next 3Y19.87%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-21.5%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y3.33%
OCF growth 3Y13.75%
OCF growth 5Y11.85%