ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AAP - US00751Y1064 - Common Stock
53.53 USD
+0.84 (+1.59%)
53.53 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to AAP. AAP was compared to 122 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. Both the profitability and financial health of AAP have multiple concerns. AAP has a expensive valuation and it also scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AAP was profitable.
AAP had a negative operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years AAP 4 years were profitable.
In the past 5 years AAP always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of -3.12%, AAP is doing worse than 62.30% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of -17.17%, AAP is in line with its industry, outperforming 41.80% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.12% | ||
| ROE | -17.17% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AAP has a Gross Margin (37.67%) which is in line with its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AAP has declined.
AAP does not have Profit Margin and Operating Margin available, so we won't be analyzing them here.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.67% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AAP does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
AAP has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, AAP has less shares outstanding
AAP has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.61, we must say that AAP is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of AAP (1.61) is worse than 61.48% of its industry peers.
AAP has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.55. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.55, AAP is not doing good in the industry: 66.39% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.55 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.61 |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC8.67%
2.3 Liquidity
AAP has a Current Ratio of 1.73. This is a normal value and indicates that AAP is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AAP has a better Current ratio (1.73) than 75.41% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.88 indicates that AAP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a decent Quick ratio value of 0.88, AAP is doing good in the industry, outperforming 71.31% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.73 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AAP have decreased strongly by -73.42% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, AAP shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -52.42% on average per year.
The Revenue for AAP has decreased by -33.50% in the past year. This is quite bad
The Revenue has been decreasing by -1.30% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-73.42%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%2400%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-33.5%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-5.21%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AAP will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 92.83% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 0.66% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y813.34%
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
EPS Next 5Y92.83%
Revenue Next Year-5.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.38%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.75%
Revenue Next 5Y0.66%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 254.90, AAP can be considered very expensive at the moment.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as AAP.
AAP is valuated expensively when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.37, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 19.74, the valuation of AAP can be described as rather expensive.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AAP is on the same level as its industry peers.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AAP to the average of the S&P500 Index (36.20), we can say AAP is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 254.9 | ||
| Fwd PE | 19.74 |
4.2 Price Multiples
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
AAP's earnings are expected to grow with 172.35% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.31
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AAP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.94%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 5.65, AAP pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.32, AAP has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.94% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AAP grows each year by 32.92%, which is quite nice.
AAP has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
The earnings of AAP are negative and hence is the payout ratio. AAP will probably not be able to sustain this dividend level.
The dividend of AAP is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP-15.92%
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
53.53
+0.84 (+1.59%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners129.39%
Inst Owner Change4.07%
Ins Owners0.88%
Ins Owner Change-1.47%
Market Cap3.21B
Revenue(TTM)8.63B
Net Income(TTM)-376.78M
Analysts56.22
Price Target55.27 (3.25%)
Short Float %16.26%
Short Ratio5.67
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.94% |
Yearly Dividend1
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
DP-15.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20%
Min EPS beat(2)18.85%
Max EPS beat(2)21.16%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)28.58%
Min EPS beat(4)1.01%
Max EPS beat(4)73.31%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-47.07%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)-49.97%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)-38.4%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.08%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.44%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.6%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.21%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.36%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.24%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.47%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.5%
PT rev (1m)1.02%
PT rev (3m)2.53%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-10.62%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-23.12%
EPS NY rev (1m)3.7%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.35%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.2%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.5%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.08%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.21%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 254.9 | ||
| Fwd PE | 19.74 | ||
| P/S | 0.37 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | N/A | ||
| P/B | 1.46 | ||
| P/tB | 2.69 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)0.21
EY0.39%
EPS(NY)2.71
Fwd EY5.06%
FCF(TTM)-6.69
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-3.19
OCFYN/A
SpS143.7
BVpS36.57
TBVpS19.91
PEG (NY)0.31
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.15
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.12% | ||
| ROE | -17.17% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.67% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.72
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.55 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | 72.75% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.44% | ||
| Interest Coverage | N/A | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.73 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.61 |
F-Score3
WACC8.67%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)97.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)101.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.81%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.74%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-73.42%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%2400%
EPS Next Y813.34%
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
EPS Next 5Y92.83%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-33.5%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-5.21%
Revenue Next Year-5.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.38%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.75%
Revenue Next 5Y0.66%
EBIT growth 1Y-356.05%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year664.34%
EBIT Next 3Y126.98%
EBIT Next 5Y59.34%
FCF growth 1Y-3874.15%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-170.98%
OCF growth 3Y-57.63%
OCF growth 5Y-37.21%
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC / AAP FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for AAP stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AAP.
What is the valuation status for AAP stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP). This can be considered as Overvalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC?
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) has a profitability rating of 2 / 10.
What is the earnings growth outlook for ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) is expected to grow by 813.34% in the next year.
Is the dividend of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC sustainable?
The dividend rating of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is -15.92%.