ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AAP - US00751Y1064 - Common Stock
64.17 USD
+3.08 (+5.04%)
64.0001 USD
-0.17 (-0.26%)
AAP gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 121 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. AAP has a bad profitability rating. Also its financial health evaluation is rather negative. AAP does not seem to be growing, but still is valued expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AAP had negative earnings in the past year.
In the past year AAP has reported a negative cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years AAP 4 years were profitable.
In the past 5 years AAP always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
AAP's Return On Assets of -3.62% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AAP is outperformed by 66.12% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of AAP (-17.33%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.62% | ||
| ROE | -17.33% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
With a Gross Margin value of 37.06%, AAP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 54.55% of the companies in the same industry.
AAP's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AAP does not have Profit Margin and Operating Margin available, so we won't be analyzing them here.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.06% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AAP does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
Compared to 1 year ago, AAP has more shares outstanding
AAP has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AAP has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
AAP has an Altman-Z score of 1.64. This is a bad value and indicates that AAP is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
AAP has a worse Altman-Z score (1.64) than 61.98% of its industry peers.
AAP has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.68. This is a neutral value indicating AAP is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
AAP's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.68 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AAP outperforms 46.28% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.68 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.64 |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC9.02%
2.3 Liquidity
AAP has a Current Ratio of 1.27. This is a normal value and indicates that AAP is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.27, AAP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 45.45% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.49 indicates that AAP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AAP has a Quick ratio (0.49) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.27 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AAP have decreased strongly by -7600.00% in the last year.
AAP shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -52.42% yearly.
The Revenue for AAP has decreased by -35.48% in the past year. This is quite bad
The Revenue has been decreasing by -1.30% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7600%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%-8%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-35.48%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-25.09%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AAP will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 110.17% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, AAP will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 0.65% on average per year.
EPS Next Y792.38%
EPS Next 2Y281.56%
EPS Next 3Y175.21%
EPS Next 5Y110.17%
Revenue Next Year-5.64%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.33%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.8%
Revenue Next 5Y0.65%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings Ratio is negative for AAP. In the last year negative earnings were reported.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.04 indicates a rather expensive valuation of AAP.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AAP is valued a bit cheaper than 60.33% of the companies in the same industry.
AAP is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.77, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 22.04 |
4.2 Price Multiples
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AAP's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AAP's earnings are expected to grow with 175.21% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y281.56%
EPS Next 3Y175.21%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AAP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.61%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 5.21, AAP pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to the average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.38, AAP is paying slightly less dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.61% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AAP is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 32.92%!
AAP has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
AAP has negative earnings and hence a negative payout ratio. The dividend may be in danger.
AAP's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP-15.7%
EPS Next 2Y281.56%
EPS Next 3Y175.21%
64.17
+3.08 (+5.04%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners126.2%
Inst Owner Change-6.62%
Ins Owners0.88%
Ins Owner Change1.9%
Market Cap3.85B
Analysts55.56
Price Target54.72 (-14.73%)
Short Float %11.91%
Short Ratio2.72
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.61% |
Yearly Dividend1
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
DP-15.7%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)46.08%
Min EPS beat(2)18.85%
Max EPS beat(2)73.31%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)-3.72%
Min EPS beat(4)-108.05%
Max EPS beat(4)73.31%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-69.23%
EPS beat(12)4
Avg EPS beat(12)-53.04%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)-39.06%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.47%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.6%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.34%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.59%
Min Revenue beat(4)-19.64%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.36%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.11%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.53%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.44%
PT rev (1m)8.4%
PT rev (3m)18.47%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-6.14%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-9.86%
EPS NY rev (1m)-5.4%
EPS NY rev (3m)15.9%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.69%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.84%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.62%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.85%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 22.04 | ||
| P/S | 0.44 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | N/A | ||
| P/B | 1.75 | ||
| P/tB | 3.21 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)-0.75
EYN/A
EPS(NY)2.91
Fwd EY4.54%
FCF(TTM)-4.88
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-1.82
OCFYN/A
SpS145.67
BVpS36.73
TBVpS19.99
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.62% | ||
| ROE | -17.33% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.06% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.83
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.68 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | 67.77% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.1% | ||
| Interest Coverage | N/A | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.27 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.64 |
F-Score4
WACC9.02%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)97.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)101.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.81%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.74%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7600%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%-8%
EPS Next Y792.38%
EPS Next 2Y281.56%
EPS Next 3Y175.21%
EPS Next 5Y110.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-35.48%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-25.09%
Revenue Next Year-5.64%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.33%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.8%
Revenue Next 5Y0.65%
EBIT growth 1Y-572.47%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year675.73%
EBIT Next 3Y127.31%
EBIT Next 5Y59.34%
FCF growth 1Y-164.5%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-143.83%
OCF growth 3Y-57.63%
OCF growth 5Y-37.21%