ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AAP - US00751Y1064 - Common Stock
46.37 USD
-1.92 (-3.98%)
46.37 USD
0 (0%)
Taking everything into account, AAP scores 3 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AAP was compared to 121 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. AAP may be in some trouble as it scores bad on both profitability and health. AAP has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AAP was profitable.
In the past year AAP has reported a negative cash flow from operations.
AAP had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years AAP had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
AAP's Return On Assets of -3.12% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AAP is outperformed by 63.64% of its industry peers.
AAP has a Return On Equity (-17.17%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.12% | ||
| ROE | -17.17% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AAP has a Gross Margin (37.67%) which is in line with its industry peers.
AAP's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Profit Margin and Operating Margin are not available for AAP so they could not be analyzed.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.67% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AAP does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
AAP has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
AAP has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
AAP has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
AAP has an Altman-Z score of 1.59. This is a bad value and indicates that AAP is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.59, AAP is doing worse than 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.55 is on the high side and indicates that AAP has dependencies on debt financing.
AAP's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.55 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AAP is outperformed by 65.29% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.55 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.59 |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC8.89%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.73 indicates that AAP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.73, AAP is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 76.03% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.88 indicates that AAP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AAP has a Quick ratio of 0.88. This is in the better half of the industry: AAP outperforms 71.07% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.73 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AAP shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -73.42%.
The earnings per share for AAP have been decreasing by -52.42% on average. This is quite bad
AAP shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -33.50%.
AAP shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -1.30% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-73.42%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%2400%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-33.5%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-5.21%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 92.83% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
Based on estimates for the next years, AAP will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 0.66% on average per year.
EPS Next Y816.64%
EPS Next 2Y269.64%
EPS Next 3Y173.82%
EPS Next 5Y92.83%
Revenue Next Year-5.47%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.25%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.74%
Revenue Next 5Y0.66%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
AAP is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 220.81.
AAP's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.54, AAP is valued quite expensively.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 16.97 indicates a correct valuation of AAP.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AAP is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 66.94% of the companies are valued more expensively.
AAP is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 23.78, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 220.81 | ||
| Fwd PE | 16.97 |
4.2 Price Multiples
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
AAP's earnings are expected to grow with 173.82% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.27
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y269.64%
EPS Next 3Y173.82%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AAP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.90%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
In the last 3 months the price of AAP has falen by -24.10%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
AAP's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 3.72.
AAP's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.27.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.9% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AAP is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 32.92%!
AAP has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
The earnings of AAP are negative and hence is the payout ratio. AAP will probably not be able to sustain this dividend level.
AAP's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP-15.92%
EPS Next 2Y269.64%
EPS Next 3Y173.82%
46.37
-1.92 (-3.98%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners121.6%
Inst Owner Change4.06%
Ins Owners0.85%
Ins Owner Change-1.72%
Market Cap2.78B
Revenue(TTM)8.63B
Net Income(TTM)-376.78M
Analysts56.11
Price Target55.27 (19.19%)
Short Float %16.26%
Short Ratio5.67
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.9% |
Yearly Dividend1
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
DP-15.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20%
Min EPS beat(2)18.85%
Max EPS beat(2)21.16%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)28.58%
Min EPS beat(4)1.01%
Max EPS beat(4)73.31%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-47.07%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)-49.97%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)-38.4%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.08%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.44%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.6%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.21%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.36%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.24%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.47%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.5%
PT rev (1m)0.57%
PT rev (3m)1.52%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.87%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-20.45%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.36%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.72%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.1%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.45%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.07%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.28%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 220.81 | ||
| Fwd PE | 16.97 | ||
| P/S | 0.32 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | N/A | ||
| P/B | 1.27 | ||
| P/tB | 2.33 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)0.21
EY0.45%
EPS(NY)2.73
Fwd EY5.89%
FCF(TTM)-6.69
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-3.19
OCFYN/A
SpS143.7
BVpS36.57
TBVpS19.91
PEG (NY)0.27
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.15
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.12% | ||
| ROE | -17.17% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.67% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.72
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.55 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | 72.75% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.44% | ||
| Interest Coverage | N/A | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.73 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.59 |
F-Score3
WACC8.89%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)97.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)101.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.81%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.74%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-73.42%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%2400%
EPS Next Y816.64%
EPS Next 2Y269.64%
EPS Next 3Y173.82%
EPS Next 5Y92.83%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-33.5%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-5.21%
Revenue Next Year-5.47%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.25%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.74%
Revenue Next 5Y0.66%
EBIT growth 1Y-356.05%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year621.34%
EBIT Next 3Y130.44%
EBIT Next 5Y59.34%
FCF growth 1Y-3874.15%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-170.98%
OCF growth 3Y-57.63%
OCF growth 5Y-37.21%
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC / AAP FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for AAP stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AAP.
What is the valuation status for AAP stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC?
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) has a profitability rating of 2 / 10.
What is the earnings growth outlook for ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) is expected to grow by 816.64% in the next year.
Is the dividend of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC sustainable?
The dividend rating of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is -15.92%.