ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AAP - US00751Y1064 - Common Stock
49.76 USD
+0.83 (+1.7%)
49.87 USD
+0.11 (+0.22%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to AAP. AAP was compared to 122 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. AAP has a bad profitability rating. Also its financial health evaluation is rather negative. AAP has a expensive valuation and it also scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AAP was profitable.
AAP had a negative operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years AAP 4 years were profitable.
AAP had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
AAP has a Return On Assets of -3.12%. This is in the lower half of the industry: AAP underperforms 63.11% of its industry peers.
AAP has a Return On Equity of -17.17%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AAP outperforms 40.98% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.12% | ||
| ROE | -17.17% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Gross Margin of AAP (37.67%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AAP has declined.
The Profit Margin and Operating Margin are not available for AAP so they could not be analyzed.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.67% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AAP does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
AAP has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
AAP has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AAP has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
AAP has an Altman-Z score of 1.59. This is a bad value and indicates that AAP is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
AAP has a worse Altman-Z score (1.59) than 62.30% of its industry peers.
AAP has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.55. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.55, AAP is not doing good in the industry: 67.21% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.55 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.59 |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC8.53%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.73 indicates that AAP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of AAP (1.73) is better than 74.59% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.88 indicates that AAP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AAP's Quick ratio of 0.88 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AAP outperforms 70.49% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.73 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AAP shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -73.42%.
The earnings per share for AAP have been decreasing by -52.42% on average. This is quite bad
AAP shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -33.50%.
Measured over the past years, AAP shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -1.30% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-73.42%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%2400%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-33.5%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-5.21%
3.2 Future
AAP is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 92.83% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 0.66% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y813.34%
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
EPS Next 5Y92.83%
Revenue Next Year-5.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.38%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.75%
Revenue Next 5Y0.66%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 236.95, AAP can be considered very expensive at the moment.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as AAP.
AAP's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather expensive valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 25.51.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 18.35, the valuation of AAP can be described as rather expensive.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as AAP.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 34.98, AAP is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 236.95 | ||
| Fwd PE | 18.35 |
4.2 Price Multiples
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AAP's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AAP's earnings are expected to grow with 172.35% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.29
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AAP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.99%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 5.60, AAP pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
AAP's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.44.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.99% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AAP grows each year by 32.92%, which is quite nice.
AAP has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
The earnings of AAP are negative and hence is the payout ratio. AAP will probably not be able to sustain this dividend level.
AAP's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP-15.92%
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
49.76
+0.83 (+1.7%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners129.39%
Inst Owner Change3.93%
Ins Owners0.88%
Ins Owner Change0.86%
Market Cap2.98B
Revenue(TTM)8.63B
Net Income(TTM)-376.78M
Analysts56.22
Price Target54.96 (10.45%)
Short Float %14.95%
Short Ratio4.94
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.99% |
Yearly Dividend1
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
DP-15.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20%
Min EPS beat(2)18.85%
Max EPS beat(2)21.16%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)28.58%
Min EPS beat(4)1.01%
Max EPS beat(4)73.31%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-47.07%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)-49.97%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)-38.4%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.08%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.44%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.6%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.21%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.36%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.24%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.47%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.5%
PT rev (1m)0.45%
PT rev (3m)8.89%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-16.99%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-40.8%
EPS NY rev (1m)3.09%
EPS NY rev (3m)-3.18%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.3%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.35%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.1%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.72%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 236.95 | ||
| Fwd PE | 18.35 | ||
| P/S | 0.35 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | N/A | ||
| P/B | 1.36 | ||
| P/tB | 2.5 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)0.21
EY0.42%
EPS(NY)2.71
Fwd EY5.45%
FCF(TTM)-6.69
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-3.19
OCFYN/A
SpS143.8
BVpS36.6
TBVpS19.92
PEG (NY)0.29
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.15
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.12% | ||
| ROE | -17.17% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.67% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.72
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.55 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | 72.75% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.44% | ||
| Interest Coverage | N/A | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.73 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.59 |
F-Score3
WACC8.53%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)97.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)101.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.81%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.74%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-73.42%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%2400%
EPS Next Y813.34%
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
EPS Next 5Y92.83%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-33.5%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-5.21%
Revenue Next Year-5.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.38%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.75%
Revenue Next 5Y0.66%
EBIT growth 1Y-356.05%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year664.34%
EBIT Next 3Y126.98%
EBIT Next 5Y59.34%
FCF growth 1Y-3874.15%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-170.98%
OCF growth 3Y-57.63%
OCF growth 5Y-37.21%
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC / AAP FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for AAP stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AAP.
What is the valuation status for AAP stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP). This can be considered as Overvalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC?
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) has a profitability rating of 2 / 10.
What is the earnings growth outlook for ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) is expected to grow by 813.34% in the next year.
Is the dividend of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC sustainable?
The dividend rating of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is -15.92%.