ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AAP - US00751Y1064 - Common Stock
40.75 USD
+0.35 (+0.87%)
40.35 USD
-0.4 (-0.98%)
Taking everything into account, AAP scores 3 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AAP was compared to 123 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. AAP may be in some trouble as it scores bad on both profitability and health. AAP is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AAP had positive earnings in the past year.
AAP had a negative operating cash flow in the past year.
AAP had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years AAP had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
AAP has a worse Return On Assets (-3.12%) than 63.41% of its industry peers.
AAP has a Return On Equity (-17.17%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.12% | ||
| ROE | -17.17% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
With a Gross Margin value of 37.67%, AAP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 53.66% of the companies in the same industry.
AAP's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AAP does not have Profit Margin and Operating Margin available, so we won't be analyzing them here.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.67% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AAP does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
Compared to 1 year ago, AAP has more shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for AAP has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for AAP is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.56, we must say that AAP is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.56, AAP is not doing good in the industry: 64.23% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
AAP has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.55. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
AAP's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.55 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AAP is outperformed by 65.85% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.55 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.56 |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC8.76%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.73 indicates that AAP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
AAP has a Current ratio of 1.73. This is in the better half of the industry: AAP outperforms 71.54% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.88 indicates that AAP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of AAP (0.88) is better than 68.29% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.73 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AAP have decreased strongly by -73.42% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, AAP shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -52.42% on average per year.
The Revenue for AAP has decreased by -33.50% in the past year. This is quite bad
Measured over the past years, AAP shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -1.30% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-73.42%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%2400%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-33.5%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-5.21%
3.2 Future
AAP is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 92.83% yearly.
AAP is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 0.66% yearly.
EPS Next Y816.64%
EPS Next 2Y269.64%
EPS Next 3Y173.82%
EPS Next 5Y92.83%
Revenue Next Year-5.47%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.25%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.74%
Revenue Next 5Y0.66%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 194.05, which means the current valuation is very expensive for AAP.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AAP is on the same level as its industry peers.
AAP is valuated expensively when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.61, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 14.91, which indicates a correct valuation of AAP.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AAP is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 73.17% of the companies are valued more expensively.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AAP to the average of the S&P500 Index (24.01), we can say AAP is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 194.05 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.91 |
4.2 Price Multiples
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
AAP's earnings are expected to grow with 173.82% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.24
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y269.64%
EPS Next 3Y173.82%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.42%, AAP has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
The stock price of AAP dropped by -33.20% in the last 3 months. With lower prices the dividend yield is higher, but it may be a sign investors do not trust the long term dividend.
AAP's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 1.98. AAP pays more dividend than 82.93% of the companies in the same industry.
AAP's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 1.87.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.42% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of AAP grows each year by 32.92%, which is quite nice.
AAP has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
AAP has negative earnings and hence a negative payout ratio. The dividend may be in danger.
AAP's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP-15.92%
EPS Next 2Y269.64%
EPS Next 3Y173.82%
40.75
+0.35 (+0.87%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners121.6%
Inst Owner Change4.06%
Ins Owners0.85%
Ins Owner Change-1.6%
Market Cap2.45B
Revenue(TTM)8.63B
Net Income(TTM)-376.78M
Analysts56.11
Price Target55.27 (35.63%)
Short Float %17.39%
Short Ratio6.07
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.42% |
Yearly Dividend1
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
DP-15.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20%
Min EPS beat(2)18.85%
Max EPS beat(2)21.16%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)28.58%
Min EPS beat(4)1.01%
Max EPS beat(4)73.31%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-47.07%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)-49.97%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)-38.4%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.08%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.44%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.6%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.21%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.36%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.24%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.47%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.5%
PT rev (1m)0.57%
PT rev (3m)1.02%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.12%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-22.46%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.36%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.72%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.2%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.35%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.07%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.17%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 194.05 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.91 | ||
| P/S | 0.28 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | N/A | ||
| P/B | 1.11 | ||
| P/tB | 2.05 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)0.21
EY0.52%
EPS(NY)2.73
Fwd EY6.71%
FCF(TTM)-6.69
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-3.19
OCFYN/A
SpS143.7
BVpS36.57
TBVpS19.91
PEG (NY)0.24
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.15
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.12% | ||
| ROE | -17.17% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.67% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.72
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.55 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | 72.75% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.44% | ||
| Interest Coverage | N/A | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.73 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.56 |
F-Score3
WACC8.76%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)97.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)101.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.81%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.74%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-73.42%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%2400%
EPS Next Y816.64%
EPS Next 2Y269.64%
EPS Next 3Y173.82%
EPS Next 5Y92.83%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-33.5%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-5.21%
Revenue Next Year-5.47%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.25%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.74%
Revenue Next 5Y0.66%
EBIT growth 1Y-356.05%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year621.34%
EBIT Next 3Y130.44%
EBIT Next 5Y59.34%
FCF growth 1Y-3874.15%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-170.98%
OCF growth 3Y-57.63%
OCF growth 5Y-37.21%
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC / AAP FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for AAP stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AAP.
What is the valuation status for AAP stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC?
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) has a profitability rating of 2 / 10.
What is the earnings growth outlook for ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) is expected to grow by 816.64% in the next year.
Is the dividend of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC sustainable?
The dividend rating of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is -15.92%.