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ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) Stock Fundamental Analysis

USA - NYSE:AAP - US00751Y1064 - Common Stock

53.57 USD
-0.03 (-0.06%)
Last: 10/16/2025, 8:26:52 PM
54.9986 USD
+1.43 (+2.67%)
After Hours: 10/16/2025, 8:26:52 PM
Fundamental Rating

3

We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to AAP. AAP was compared to 120 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. AAP may be in some trouble as it scores bad on both profitability and health. AAP is valued expensive and it does not seem to be growing.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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2

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

AAP had negative earnings in the past year.
In the past year AAP has reported a negative cash flow from operations.
AAP had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years AAP always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
AAP Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAAP Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 500M 1B

1.2 Ratios

Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of -3.62%, AAP is doing worse than 65.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of -17.33%, AAP is doing worse than 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -3.62%
ROE -17.33%
ROIC N/A
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
AAP Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAAP Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 10 -10

1.3 Margins

AAP has a Gross Margin (37.06%) which is in line with its industry peers.
AAP's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Profit Margin and Operating Margin are not available for AAP so they could not be analyzed.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM N/A
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 37.06%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
AAP Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAAP Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 10 20 30 40

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2

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

AAP does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
Compared to 1 year ago, AAP has more shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, AAP has less shares outstanding
AAP has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
AAP Yearly Shares OutstandingAAP Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20M 40M 60M
AAP Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAAP Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

2.2 Solvency

AAP has an Altman-Z score of 1.61. This is a bad value and indicates that AAP is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.61, AAP is not doing good in the industry: 64.17% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.68 indicates that AAP is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
AAP's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.68 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AAP outperforms 47.50% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.68
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 1.61
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC8.79%
AAP Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAAP Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 1B 2B 3B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 1.27 indicates that AAP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.27, AAP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 45.83% of the companies in the same industry.
AAP has a Quick Ratio of 1.27. This is a bad value and indicates that AAP is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AAP has a Quick ratio (0.49) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.27
Quick Ratio 0.49
AAP Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAAP Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2B 4B 6B

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3

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The earnings per share for AAP have decreased strongly by -7600.00% in the last year.
AAP shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -52.42% yearly.
AAP shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -35.48%.
The Revenue has been decreasing by -1.30% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7600%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%-8%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-35.48%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-25.09%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 94.52% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
The Revenue is expected to grow by 0.65% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y785.95%
EPS Next 2Y276.51%
EPS Next 3Y175.01%
EPS Next 5Y94.52%
Revenue Next Year-5.64%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.39%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.81%
Revenue Next 5Y0.65%

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
AAP Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAAP Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B
AAP Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAAP Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 0 2 4 6 8 10

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3

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

The Price/Earnings Ratio is negative for AAP. In the last year negative earnings were reported.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 18.89, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of AAP.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AAP is valued a bit cheaper than 60.83% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.85, AAP is valued at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE N/A
Fwd PE 18.89
AAP Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAAP Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 0 50 -50

4.2 Price Multiples

Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA N/A
AAP Per share dataAAP EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 50 100

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AAP's earnings are expected to grow with 175.01% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y276.51%
EPS Next 3Y175.01%

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5

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

AAP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.99%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 5.63, AAP pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.38, AAP has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.99%

5.2 History

The dividend of AAP is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 32.92%!
AAP has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
AAP Yearly Dividends per shareAAP Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1 2 3 4 5

5.3 Sustainability

The earnings of AAP are negative and hence is the payout ratio. AAP will probably not be able to sustain this dividend level.
AAP's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP-15.7%
EPS Next 2Y276.51%
EPS Next 3Y175.01%
AAP Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendAAP Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 200M -200M 400M 600M 800M

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ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC

NYSE:AAP (10/16/2025, 8:26:52 PM)

After market: 54.9986 +1.43 (+2.67%)

53.57

-0.03 (-0.06%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)08-14 2025-08-14/bmo
Earnings (Next)10-30 2025-10-30/bmo
Inst Owners129.39%
Inst Owner Change-0.04%
Ins Owners0.88%
Ins Owner Change1.12%
Market Cap3.21B
Analysts55.68
Price Target54.72 (2.15%)
Short Float %13.69%
Short Ratio4.07
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.99%
Yearly Dividend1
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
DP-15.7%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date10-10 2025-10-10 (0.25)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)46.08%
Min EPS beat(2)18.85%
Max EPS beat(2)73.31%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)-3.72%
Min EPS beat(4)-108.05%
Max EPS beat(4)73.31%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-69.23%
EPS beat(12)4
Avg EPS beat(12)-53.04%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)-39.06%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.47%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.6%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.34%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.59%
Min Revenue beat(4)-19.64%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.36%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.11%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.53%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.44%
PT rev (1m)0.49%
PT rev (3m)14.81%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.41%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-9.72%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.72%
EPS NY rev (3m)-6.09%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.15%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.99%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.72%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE N/A
Fwd PE 18.89
P/S 0.37
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF N/A
P/B 1.46
P/tB 2.68
EV/EBITDA N/A
EPS(TTM)-0.75
EYN/A
EPS(NY)2.84
Fwd EY5.29%
FCF(TTM)-4.88
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-1.82
OCFYN/A
SpS145.67
BVpS36.73
TBVpS19.99
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -3.62%
ROE -17.33%
ROCE N/A
ROIC N/A
ROICexc N/A
ROICexgc N/A
OM N/A
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 37.06%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.83
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.68
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA N/A
Cap/Depr 67.77%
Cap/Sales 2.1%
Interest Coverage N/A
Cash Conversion N/A
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 1.27
Quick Ratio 0.49
Altman-Z 1.61
F-Score4
WACC8.79%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)97.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)101.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.81%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.74%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7600%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%-8%
EPS Next Y785.95%
EPS Next 2Y276.51%
EPS Next 3Y175.01%
EPS Next 5Y94.52%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-35.48%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-25.09%
Revenue Next Year-5.64%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.39%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.81%
Revenue Next 5Y0.65%
EBIT growth 1Y-572.47%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year664.34%
EBIT Next 3Y126.98%
EBIT Next 5Y59.34%
FCF growth 1Y-164.5%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-143.83%
OCF growth 3Y-57.63%
OCF growth 5Y-37.21%