ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AAP - US00751Y1064 - Common Stock
48.37 USD
-1.67 (-3.34%)
48.37 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to AAP. AAP was compared to 122 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. AAP has a bad profitability rating. Also its financial health evaluation is rather negative. AAP does not seem to be growing, but still is valued expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AAP had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AAP has reported a negative cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years AAP 4 years were profitable.
In the past 5 years AAP always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
AAP has a Return On Assets of -3.12%. This is in the lower half of the industry: AAP underperforms 63.11% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Equity value of -17.17%, AAP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 40.98% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.12% | ||
| ROE | -17.17% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AAP has a Gross Margin of 37.67%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AAP outperforms 54.92% of its industry peers.
AAP's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Profit Margin and Operating Margin are not available for AAP so they could not be analyzed.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.67% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AAP does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
Compared to 1 year ago, AAP has more shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, AAP has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for AAP is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.59, we must say that AAP is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.59, AAP is doing worse than 61.48% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.55 is on the high side and indicates that AAP has dependencies on debt financing.
AAP has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.55. This is in the lower half of the industry: AAP underperforms 67.21% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.55 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.59 |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC8.54%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.73 indicates that AAP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
AAP has a Current ratio of 1.73. This is in the better half of the industry: AAP outperforms 74.59% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.88 indicates that AAP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AAP has a Quick ratio of 0.88. This is in the better half of the industry: AAP outperforms 70.49% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.73 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AAP shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -73.42%.
Measured over the past years, AAP shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -52.42% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, AAP shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -33.50% in the last year.
AAP shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -1.30% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-73.42%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%2400%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-33.5%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-5.21%
3.2 Future
AAP is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 92.83% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 0.66% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y813.34%
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
EPS Next 5Y92.83%
Revenue Next Year-5.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.38%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.75%
Revenue Next 5Y0.66%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
AAP is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 230.33.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AAP is on the same level as its industry peers.
AAP's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather expensive valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 25.07.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 17.84, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of AAP.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as AAP.
AAP's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 34.08.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 230.33 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.84 |
4.2 Price Multiples
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
AAP's earnings are expected to grow with 172.35% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.28
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AAP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.99%.
AAP's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 5.60.
AAP's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.44.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.99% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AAP is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 32.92%!
AAP has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
The earnings of AAP are negative and hence is the payout ratio. AAP will probably not be able to sustain this dividend level.
AAP's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP-15.92%
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
48.37
-1.67 (-3.34%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners129.39%
Inst Owner Change3.93%
Ins Owners0.88%
Ins Owner Change0.86%
Market Cap2.90B
Revenue(TTM)8.63B
Net Income(TTM)-376.78M
Analysts56.22
Price Target54.96 (13.62%)
Short Float %14.95%
Short Ratio4.94
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.99% |
Yearly Dividend1
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
DP-15.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20%
Min EPS beat(2)18.85%
Max EPS beat(2)21.16%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)28.58%
Min EPS beat(4)1.01%
Max EPS beat(4)73.31%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-47.07%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)-49.97%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)-38.4%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.08%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.44%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.6%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.21%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.36%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.24%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.47%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.5%
PT rev (1m)0.45%
PT rev (3m)8.89%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-16.99%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-40.8%
EPS NY rev (1m)3.09%
EPS NY rev (3m)-3.18%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.3%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.35%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.1%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.72%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 230.33 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.84 | ||
| P/S | 0.34 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | N/A | ||
| P/B | 1.32 | ||
| P/tB | 2.43 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)0.21
EY0.43%
EPS(NY)2.71
Fwd EY5.61%
FCF(TTM)-6.69
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-3.19
OCFYN/A
SpS143.8
BVpS36.6
TBVpS19.92
PEG (NY)0.28
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.15
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.12% | ||
| ROE | -17.17% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.67% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.72
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.55 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | 72.75% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.44% | ||
| Interest Coverage | N/A | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.73 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.59 |
F-Score3
WACC8.54%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)97.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)101.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.81%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.74%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-73.42%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%2400%
EPS Next Y813.34%
EPS Next 2Y268.18%
EPS Next 3Y172.35%
EPS Next 5Y92.83%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-33.5%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-5.21%
Revenue Next Year-5.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.38%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.75%
Revenue Next 5Y0.66%
EBIT growth 1Y-356.05%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year664.34%
EBIT Next 3Y126.98%
EBIT Next 5Y59.34%
FCF growth 1Y-3874.15%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-170.98%
OCF growth 3Y-57.63%
OCF growth 5Y-37.21%
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC / AAP FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for AAP stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AAP.
What is the valuation status for AAP stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP). This can be considered as Overvalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC?
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) has a profitability rating of 2 / 10.
What is the earnings growth outlook for ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) is expected to grow by 813.34% in the next year.
Is the dividend of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC sustainable?
The dividend rating of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is -15.92%.