ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AAP - US00751Y1064 - Common Stock
43.84 USD
+1.46 (+3.45%)
43.84 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to AAP. AAP was compared to 122 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. AAP may be in some trouble as it scores bad on both profitability and health. AAP is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AAP was profitable.
AAP had a negative operating cash flow in the past year.
AAP had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years AAP had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of AAP (-3.12%) is worse than 63.11% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Equity value of -17.17%, AAP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 41.80% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.12% | ||
| ROE | -17.17% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Gross Margin of AAP (37.67%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AAP has declined.
The Profit Margin and Operating Margin are not available for AAP so they could not be analyzed.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.67% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AAP does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
The number of shares outstanding for AAP has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
AAP has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AAP has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.57, we must say that AAP is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.57, AAP is not doing good in the industry: 63.93% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
AAP has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.55. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.55, AAP is not doing good in the industry: 64.75% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.55 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.57 |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC8.93%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.73 indicates that AAP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of AAP (1.73) is better than 72.95% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.88 indicates that AAP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AAP has a better Quick ratio (0.88) than 68.03% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.73 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for AAP have decreased strongly by -73.42% in the last year.
The earnings per share for AAP have been decreasing by -52.42% on average. This is quite bad
The Revenue for AAP has decreased by -33.50% in the past year. This is quite bad
The Revenue has been decreasing by -1.30% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-73.42%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%2400%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-33.5%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-5.21%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 92.43% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
AAP is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 0.72% yearly.
EPS Next Y815.17%
EPS Next 2Y269.57%
EPS Next 3Y173.67%
EPS Next 5Y92.43%
Revenue Next Year-5.46%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.24%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.73%
Revenue Next 5Y0.72%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 208.76, AAP can be considered very expensive at the moment.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AAP is on the same level as its industry peers.
AAP's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather expensive valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 27.19.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 16.05 indicates a correct valuation of AAP.
72.13% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AAP, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AAP to the average of the S&P500 Index (23.92), we can say AAP is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 208.76 | ||
| Fwd PE | 16.05 |
4.2 Price Multiples
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AAP's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AAP's earnings are expected to grow with 173.67% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.26
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y269.57%
EPS Next 3Y173.67%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.36%, AAP has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.13, AAP pays a better dividend. On top of this AAP pays more dividend than 81.15% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.92, AAP pays a bit more dividend than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.36% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AAP is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 32.92%!
AAP has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
The earnings of AAP are negative and hence is the payout ratio. AAP will probably not be able to sustain this dividend level.
AAP's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP-15.92%
EPS Next 2Y269.57%
EPS Next 3Y173.67%
43.84
+1.46 (+3.45%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners121.83%
Inst Owner Change-0.15%
Ins Owners0.84%
Ins Owner Change-1.47%
Market Cap2.63B
Revenue(TTM)8.63B
Net Income(TTM)-376.78M
Analysts56.11
Price Target54.71 (24.79%)
Short Float %17.58%
Short Ratio6.03
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.36% |
Yearly Dividend1
Dividend Growth(5Y)32.92%
DP-15.92%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20%
Min EPS beat(2)18.85%
Max EPS beat(2)21.16%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)28.58%
Min EPS beat(4)1.01%
Max EPS beat(4)73.31%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-47.07%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)-49.97%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)-38.4%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.08%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.44%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.6%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.21%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.36%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.24%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.47%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.5%
PT rev (1m)-1.01%
PT rev (3m)-0.01%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.42%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-17.43%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.16%
EPS NY rev (3m)3.3%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.05%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.1%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.01%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.18%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 208.76 | ||
| Fwd PE | 16.05 | ||
| P/S | 0.31 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | N/A | ||
| P/B | 1.2 | ||
| P/tB | 2.2 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
EPS(TTM)0.21
EY0.48%
EPS(NY)2.73
Fwd EY6.23%
FCF(TTM)-6.69
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-3.19
OCFYN/A
SpS143.7
BVpS36.57
TBVpS19.91
PEG (NY)0.26
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.15
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.12% | ||
| ROE | -17.17% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 37.67% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)0.44%
ROA(5y)2.11%
ROE(3y)1.54%
ROE(5y)7.63%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.8%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.72
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.55 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | N/A | ||
| Cap/Depr | 72.75% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.44% | ||
| Interest Coverage | N/A | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.73 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.57 |
F-Score3
WACC8.93%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)97.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)101.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.81%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.74%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-73.42%
EPS 3Y-74.47%
EPS 5Y-52.42%
EPS Q2Q%2400%
EPS Next Y815.17%
EPS Next 2Y269.57%
EPS Next 3Y173.67%
EPS Next 5Y92.43%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-33.5%
Revenue growth 3Y-6.14%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-5.21%
Revenue Next Year-5.46%
Revenue Next 2Y-2.24%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.73%
Revenue Next 5Y0.72%
EBIT growth 1Y-356.05%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year712.26%
EBIT Next 3Y130.47%
EBIT Next 5Y59.55%
FCF growth 1Y-3874.15%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-170.98%
OCF growth 3Y-57.63%
OCF growth 5Y-37.21%
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC / AAP FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for AAP stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to AAP.
Can you provide the valuation status for ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC?
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) has a profitability rating of 2 / 10.
Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for AAP stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) is 208.76 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.2.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for AAP stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC (AAP) is expected to grow by 815.17% in the next year.