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AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NASDAQ:AAL - Nasdaq - US02376R1023 - Common Stock

18.27  -0.02 (-0.11%)

After market: 18.3 +0.03 (+0.16%)

Fundamental Rating

3

AAL gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 23 industry peers in the Passenger Airlines industry. AAL has a bad profitability rating. Also its financial health evaluation is rather negative. AAL is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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3

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year AAL was profitable.
AAL had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years AAL reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
AAL had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
AAL Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAAL Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 5B -5B -10B

1.2 Ratios

With a Return On Assets value of -0.19%, AAL perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 52.17% of the companies in the same industry.
AAL has a better Return On Invested Capital (5.11%) than 65.22% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -0.19%
ROE N/A
ROIC 5.11%
ROA(3y)-0.5%
ROA(5y)-2.6%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
AAL Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAAL Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 -500 -1K

1.3 Margins

In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AAL has declined.
AAL's Operating Margin of 5.34% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AAL outperforms 56.52% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AAL has remained more or less at the same level.
AAL has a Gross Margin of 61.77%. This is in the better half of the industry: AAL outperforms 69.57% of its industry peers.
AAL's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 5.34%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 61.77%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-0.37%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-13.25%
GM growth 3Y12.53%
GM growth 5Y0.58%
AAL Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAAL Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20 -20 40 -40 60 -60

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1

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AAL is destroying value.
AAL has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, AAL has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, AAL has an improved debt to assets ratio.
AAL Yearly Shares OutstandingAAL Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 200M 400M 600M
AAL Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAAL Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20B 40B 60B

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.74, we must say that AAL is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of AAL (0.74) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity N/A
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 0.74
ROIC/WACC0.69
WACC7.44%
AAL Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAAL Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 10B 20B 30B

2.3 Liquidity

AAL has a Current Ratio of 0.60. This is a bad value and indicates that AAL is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of AAL (0.60) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
AAL has a Quick Ratio of 0.60. This is a bad value and indicates that AAL is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AAL has a Quick ratio of 0.50. This is in the lower half of the industry: AAL underperforms 65.22% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.6
Quick Ratio 0.5
AAL Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAAL Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 5B 10B 15B 20B

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4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The earnings per share for AAL have decreased strongly by -61.93% in the last year.
The earnings per share for AAL have been decreasing by -10.32% on average. This is quite bad
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 1.32% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, AAL shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 3.46% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-61.93%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y-10.32%
EPS Q2Q%-21.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.32%
Revenue growth 3Y44.94%
Revenue growth 5Y3.46%
Sales Q2Q%1.22%

3.2 Future

Based on estimates for the next years, AAL will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 15.70% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 3.50% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-37.34%
EPS Next 2Y-7.8%
EPS Next 3Y3.24%
EPS Next 5Y15.7%
Revenue Next Year2.13%
Revenue Next 2Y3.31%
Revenue Next 3Y3.96%
Revenue Next 5Y3.5%

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
AAL Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAAL Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 20B 40B 60B
AAL Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAAL Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 0 5 -5 -10 -15 -20

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5

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

AAL is valuated correctly with a Price/Earnings ratio of 13.63.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AAL indicates a rather cheap valuation: AAL is cheaper than 82.61% of the companies listed in the same industry.
AAL's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 27.96.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 8.14, which indicates a very decent valuation of AAL.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AAL is valued cheaper than 91.30% of the companies in the same industry.
AAL's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 24.11.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 13.63
Fwd PE 8.14
AAL Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAAL Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

91.30% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AAL, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 5.09
AAL Per share dataAAL EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 20 40 60 80

4.3 Compensation for Growth

PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-7.8%
EPS Next 3Y3.24%

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0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

No dividends for AAL!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC

NASDAQ:AAL (1/17/2025, 8:00:00 PM)

After market: 18.3 +0.03 (+0.16%)

18.27

-0.02 (-0.11%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryPassenger Airlines
Earnings (Last)10-24 2024-10-24/bmo
Earnings (Next)01-23 2025-01-23/bmo
Inst Owners62.65%
Inst Owner Change-0.08%
Ins Owners1.22%
Ins Owner Change-2.85%
Market Cap12.01B
Analysts70.37
Price Target18.04 (-1.26%)
Short Float %6.98%
Short Ratio1.81
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-6.42%
Min EPS beat(2)-15.81%
Max EPS beat(2)2.97%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)53.93%
Min EPS beat(4)-15.81%
Max EPS beat(4)179.31%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)31.09%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)21.86%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)18.22%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.21%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.24%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.17%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.07%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.24%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.65%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.73%
Revenue beat(12)1
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.67%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.49%
PT rev (1m)20.56%
PT rev (3m)54.57%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)96.48%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)61.36%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.35%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.1%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.65%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 13.63
Fwd PE 8.14
P/S 0.22
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 5.96
P/B N/A
P/tB N/A
EV/EBITDA 5.09
EPS(TTM)1.34
EY7.33%
EPS(NY)2.24
Fwd EY12.28%
FCF(TTM)-1.24
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)3.07
OCFY16.78%
SpS81.34
BVpS-7.22
TBVpS-16.56
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -0.19%
ROE N/A
ROCE 7.22%
ROIC 5.11%
ROICexc 6.66%
ROICexgc 8.35%
OM 5.34%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 61.77%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)-0.5%
ROA(5y)-2.6%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y6.08%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y5.6%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-0.37%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-13.25%
GM growth 3Y12.53%
GM growth 5Y0.58%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.83
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity N/A
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 5.41
Cap/Depr 125.42%
Cap/Sales 5.29%
Interest Coverage 1.37
Cash Conversion 39.45%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 0.6
Quick Ratio 0.5
Altman-Z 0.74
F-Score5
WACC7.44%
ROIC/WACC0.69
Cap/Depr(3y)86.43%
Cap/Depr(5y)105.2%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.08%
Cap/Sales(5y)6.57%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-61.93%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y-10.32%
EPS Q2Q%-21.05%
EPS Next Y-37.34%
EPS Next 2Y-7.8%
EPS Next 3Y3.24%
EPS Next 5Y15.7%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.32%
Revenue growth 3Y44.94%
Revenue growth 5Y3.46%
Sales Q2Q%1.22%
Revenue Next Year2.13%
Revenue Next 2Y3.31%
Revenue Next 3Y3.96%
Revenue Next 5Y3.5%
EBIT growth 1Y-42.67%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y3.08%
EBIT Next Year33.54%
EBIT Next 3Y19.01%
EBIT Next 5Y19.86%
FCF growth 1Y59.18%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y12693.8%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y1.48%