Arlington Asset Investment Corp (AAIC) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:AAIC • US0413562051

4.84 USD
+0.07 (+1.47%)
At close: Dec 13, 2023
4.84 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours: 12/13/2023, 8:04:00 PM
Overview Stock Chart Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis Forecast Earnings Financials Ownership News

This AAIC fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

Fundamental Rating

2

Overall AAIC gets a fundamental rating of 2 out of 10. We evaluated AAIC against 68 industry peers in the Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)" industry. Both the profitability and financial health of AAIC have multiple concerns. AAIC is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

1

1. AAIC Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year AAIC was profitable.
  • AAIC had a negative operating cash flow in the past year.
AAIC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAAIC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 50M -50M

1.2 Ratios

  • AAIC has a Return On Assets of -0.27%. This is in the lower half of the industry: AAIC underperforms 65.63% of its industry peers.
  • With a Return On Equity value of -1.08%, AAIC is not doing good in the industry: 62.50% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
  • AAIC's Return On Invested Capital of 0.19% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AAIC is outperformed by 62.50% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -0.27%
ROE -1.08%
ROIC 0.19%
ROA(3y)-2.37%
ROA(5y)-1.82%
ROE(3y)-11.03%
ROE(5y)-12.68%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
AAIC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAAIC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 -10 -20 -30

1.3 Margins

  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AAIC has declined.
  • With a Operating Margin value of 4.02%, AAIC is not doing good in the industry: 62.50% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AAIC has declined.
  • AAIC has a Gross Margin (36.78%) which is in line with its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AAIC has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 4.02%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 36.78%
OM growth 3Y18.88%
OM growth 5Y-16.44%
PM growth 3Y-17.2%
PM growth 5Y-18.06%
GM growth 3Y36.91%
GM growth 5Y-0.28%
AAIC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAAIC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 -500 -1K

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1

2. AAIC Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • Compared to 1 year ago, AAIC has less shares outstanding
  • AAIC has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
AAIC Yearly Shares OutstandingAAIC Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 10M 20M 30M
AAIC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAAIC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1B 2B 3B 4B

2.2 Solvency

  • Based on the Altman-Z score of -3.28, we must say that AAIC is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • With a Altman-Z score value of -3.28, AAIC is not doing good in the industry: 98.44% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 3.01 is on the high side and indicates that AAIC has dependencies on debt financing.
  • AAIC has a Debt to Equity ratio of 3.01. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AAIC outperforms 59.38% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.01
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z -3.28
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A
AAIC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAAIC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 100M 200M 300M

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 0.36 indicates that AAIC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • The Current ratio of AAIC (0.36) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • AAIC has a Quick Ratio of 0.36. This is a bad value and indicates that AAIC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • The Quick ratio of AAIC (0.36) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.36
Quick Ratio 0.36
AAIC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAAIC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1B 2B 3B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. AAIC Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 17.39% over the past year.
  • The earnings per share for AAIC have been decreasing by -33.34% on average. This is quite bad
  • Looking at the last year, AAIC shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 17.04% in the last year.
  • The Revenue for AAIC have been decreasing by -16.37% on average. This is quite bad
EPS 1Y (TTM)17.39%
EPS 3Y-30.92%
EPS 5Y-33.34%
EPS Q2Q%-36.36%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)17.04%
Revenue growth 3Y-25.55%
Revenue growth 5Y-16.37%
Sales Q2Q%-64.33%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -4.19% on average over the next years.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, AAIC will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 6.81% on average per year.
EPS Next Y0.98%
EPS Next 2Y-4.19%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-6.88%
Revenue Next 2Y6.81%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
AAIC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAAIC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 50M 100M
AAIC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAAIC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1 2 3 4 5

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1

4. AAIC Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • The Price/Earnings ratio is 17.93, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of AAIC.
  • The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as AAIC.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.83. AAIC is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
  • AAIC is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 17.57.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AAIC indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: AAIC is more expensive than 70.31% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • AAIC is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 24.95, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 17.93
Fwd PE 17.57
AAIC Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAAIC Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA N/A
AAIC Per share dataAAIC EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 2 4 6

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
  • AAIC's earnings are expected to decrease with -4.19% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)18.29
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-4.19%
EPS Next 3YN/A

More info and screens

Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

0

5. AAIC Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • AAIC does not give a dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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AAIC Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

Arlington Asset Investment Corp

NYSE:AAIC (12/13/2023, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 4.84 0 (0%)

4.84

+0.07 (+1.47%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryMortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)"
Earnings (Last)11-13
Earnings (Next)03-29
Inst Owners43%
Inst Owner ChangeN/A
Ins OwnersN/A
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap137.07M
Revenue(TTM)52.20M
Net Income(TTM)-2.30M
Analysts77.78
Price Target5.61 (15.91%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly Dividend0.09
Dividend Growth(5Y)-47.16%
DP-86.96%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-0.77%
Min EPS beat(2)-8.5%
Max EPS beat(2)6.95%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-5.02%
Min EPS beat(4)-34.64%
Max EPS beat(4)16.1%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)10.25%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)21.86%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)20.88%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)114.9%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.22%
Max Revenue beat(2)234.03%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)82.39%
Min Revenue beat(4)-4.22%
Max Revenue beat(4)234.03%
Revenue beat(8)7
Avg Revenue beat(8)85.94%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)80.72%
Revenue beat(16)12
Avg Revenue beat(16)39.2%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)18.92%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 17.93
Fwd PE 17.57
P/S 2.63
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF N/A
P/B 0.64
P/tB 0.64
EV/EBITDA N/A
EPS(TTM)0.27
EY5.58%
EPS(NY)0.28
Fwd EY5.69%
FCF(TTM)-0.43
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-0.43
OCFYN/A
SpS1.84
BVpS7.52
TBVpS7.52
PEG (NY)18.29
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham NumberN/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -0.27%
ROE -1.08%
ROCE 0.67%
ROIC 0.19%
ROICexc 0.19%
ROICexgc 0.2%
OM 4.02%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 36.78%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)-2.37%
ROA(5y)-1.82%
ROE(3y)-11.03%
ROE(5y)-12.68%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y41.72%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-6.71%
ROICexc growth 3Y41.32%
ROICexc growth 5Y-6.79%
OM growth 3Y18.88%
OM growth 5Y-16.44%
PM growth 3Y-17.2%
PM growth 5Y-18.06%
GM growth 3Y36.91%
GM growth 5Y-0.28%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.06
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.01
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA N/A
Cap/Depr N/A
Cap/Sales N/A
Interest Coverage 0.07
Cash Conversion N/A
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 0.36
Quick Ratio 0.36
Altman-Z -3.28
F-Score4
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)17.39%
EPS 3Y-30.92%
EPS 5Y-33.34%
EPS Q2Q%-36.36%
EPS Next Y0.98%
EPS Next 2Y-4.19%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)17.04%
Revenue growth 3Y-25.55%
Revenue growth 5Y-16.37%
Sales Q2Q%-64.33%
Revenue Next Year-6.88%
Revenue Next 2Y6.81%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-78.57%
EBIT growth 3Y-11.49%
EBIT growth 5Y-30.12%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-258.44%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-258.44%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A

Arlington Asset Investment Corp / AAIC FAQ

What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of Arlington Asset Investment Corp (AAIC) stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 2 / 10 to AAIC.


What is the valuation status for AAIC stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 1 / 10 to Arlington Asset Investment Corp (AAIC). This can be considered as Overvalued.


Can you provide the profitability details for Arlington Asset Investment Corp?

Arlington Asset Investment Corp (AAIC) has a profitability rating of 2 / 10.


What are the PE and PB ratios of Arlington Asset Investment Corp (AAIC) stock?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for Arlington Asset Investment Corp (AAIC) is 17.93 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 0.64.


Can you provide the dividend sustainability for AAIC stock?

The dividend rating of Arlington Asset Investment Corp (AAIC) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is -86.96%.