Arlington Asset Investment Corp (AAIC) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:AAIC • US0413562051

Current stock price

4.84 USD
+0.07 (+1.47%)
At close:
4.84 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours:

This AAIC fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

1

1. AAIC Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year AAIC was profitable.
  • AAIC had a negative operating cash flow in the past year.
AAIC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAAIC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 50M -50M

1.2 Ratios

  • With a Return On Assets value of -0.27%, AAIC is not doing good in the industry: 65.63% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
  • The Return On Equity of AAIC (-1.08%) is worse than 62.50% of its industry peers.
  • Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 0.19%, AAIC is doing worse than 62.50% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -0.27%
ROE -1.08%
ROIC 0.19%
ROA(3y)-2.37%
ROA(5y)-1.82%
ROE(3y)-11.03%
ROE(5y)-12.68%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
AAIC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAAIC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 -10 -20 -30

1.3 Margins

  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AAIC has declined.
  • Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 4.02%, AAIC is doing worse than 62.50% of the companies in the same industry.
  • AAIC's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
  • With a Gross Margin value of 36.78%, AAIC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 57.81% of the companies in the same industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AAIC has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 4.02%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 36.78%
OM growth 3Y18.88%
OM growth 5Y-16.44%
PM growth 3Y-17.2%
PM growth 5Y-18.06%
GM growth 3Y36.91%
GM growth 5Y-0.28%
AAIC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAAIC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 -500 -1K

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1

2. AAIC Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • AAIC has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
  • The debt/assets ratio for AAIC is higher compared to a year ago.
AAIC Yearly Shares OutstandingAAIC Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 10M 20M 30M
AAIC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAAIC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1B 2B 3B 4B

2.2 Solvency

  • Based on the Altman-Z score of -3.28, we must say that AAIC is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • AAIC has a Altman-Z score of -3.28. This is amonst the worse of the industry: AAIC underperforms 98.44% of its industry peers.
  • AAIC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.01. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • AAIC has a Debt to Equity ratio of 3.01. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AAIC outperforms 59.38% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.01
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z -3.28
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A
AAIC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAAIC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 100M 200M 300M

2.3 Liquidity

  • AAIC has a Current Ratio of 0.36. This is a bad value and indicates that AAIC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.36, AAIC is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.81% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.36 indicates that AAIC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • With a Quick ratio value of 0.36, AAIC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 57.81% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.36
Quick Ratio 0.36
AAIC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAAIC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1B 2B 3B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. AAIC Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 17.39% over the past year.
  • The earnings per share for AAIC have been decreasing by -33.34% on average. This is quite bad
  • Looking at the last year, AAIC shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 17.04% in the last year.
  • The Revenue for AAIC have been decreasing by -16.37% on average. This is quite bad
EPS 1Y (TTM)17.39%
EPS 3Y-30.92%
EPS 5Y-33.34%
EPS Q2Q%-36.36%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)17.04%
Revenue growth 3Y-25.55%
Revenue growth 5Y-16.37%
Sales Q2Q%-64.33%

3.2 Future

  • AAIC is expected to show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will decrease by -4.19% yearly.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, AAIC will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 6.81% on average per year.
EPS Next Y0.98%
EPS Next 2Y-4.19%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-6.88%
Revenue Next 2Y6.81%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
AAIC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAAIC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 50M 100M
AAIC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAAIC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1 2 3 4 5

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1

4. AAIC Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • AAIC is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 17.93.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AAIC is on the same level as its industry peers.
  • AAIC's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 25.60.
  • AAIC is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 17.57.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AAIC indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: AAIC is more expensive than 70.31% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AAIC to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.84), we can say AAIC is valued slightly cheaper.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 17.93
Fwd PE 17.57
AAIC Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAAIC Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60 80

4.2 Price Multiples

Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA N/A
AAIC Per share dataAAIC EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 2 4 6

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates AAIC does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
  • A cheap valuation may be justified as AAIC's earnings are expected to decrease with -4.19% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)18.29
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-4.19%
EPS Next 3YN/A

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

0

5. AAIC Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • No dividends for AAIC!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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AAIC Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

Arlington Asset Investment Corp

NYSE:AAIC (12/13/2023, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 4.84 0 (0%)

4.84

+0.07 (+1.47%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryMortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)"
Earnings (Last)11-13
Earnings (Next)03-29
Inst Owners43%
Inst Owner ChangeN/A
Ins OwnersN/A
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap137.07M
Revenue(TTM)52.20M
Net Income(TTM)-2.30M
Analysts77.78
Price Target5.61 (15.91%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly Dividend0.09
Dividend Growth(5Y)-47.16%
DP-86.96%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-0.77%
Min EPS beat(2)-8.5%
Max EPS beat(2)6.95%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-5.02%
Min EPS beat(4)-34.64%
Max EPS beat(4)16.1%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)10.25%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)21.86%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)20.88%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)114.9%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.22%
Max Revenue beat(2)234.03%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)82.39%
Min Revenue beat(4)-4.22%
Max Revenue beat(4)234.03%
Revenue beat(8)7
Avg Revenue beat(8)85.94%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)80.72%
Revenue beat(16)12
Avg Revenue beat(16)39.2%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)18.92%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 17.93
Fwd PE 17.57
P/S 2.63
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF N/A
P/B 0.64
P/tB 0.64
EV/EBITDA N/A
EPS(TTM)0.27
EY5.58%
EPS(NY)0.28
Fwd EY5.69%
FCF(TTM)-0.43
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-0.43
OCFYN/A
SpS1.84
BVpS7.52
TBVpS7.52
PEG (NY)18.29
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham NumberN/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -0.27%
ROE -1.08%
ROCE 0.67%
ROIC 0.19%
ROICexc 0.19%
ROICexgc 0.2%
OM 4.02%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 36.78%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)-2.37%
ROA(5y)-1.82%
ROE(3y)-11.03%
ROE(5y)-12.68%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y41.72%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-6.71%
ROICexc growth 3Y41.32%
ROICexc growth 5Y-6.79%
OM growth 3Y18.88%
OM growth 5Y-16.44%
PM growth 3Y-17.2%
PM growth 5Y-18.06%
GM growth 3Y36.91%
GM growth 5Y-0.28%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.06
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.01
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA N/A
Cap/Depr N/A
Cap/Sales N/A
Interest Coverage 0.07
Cash Conversion N/A
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 0.36
Quick Ratio 0.36
Altman-Z -3.28
F-Score4
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)17.39%
EPS 3Y-30.92%
EPS 5Y-33.34%
EPS Q2Q%-36.36%
EPS Next Y0.98%
EPS Next 2Y-4.19%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)17.04%
Revenue growth 3Y-25.55%
Revenue growth 5Y-16.37%
Sales Q2Q%-64.33%
Revenue Next Year-6.88%
Revenue Next 2Y6.81%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-78.57%
EBIT growth 3Y-11.49%
EBIT growth 5Y-30.12%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-258.44%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-258.44%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A

Arlington Asset Investment Corp / AAIC Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of Arlington Asset Investment Corp (AAIC) stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 2 / 10 to AAIC.


Can you provide the valuation status for Arlington Asset Investment Corp?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 1 / 10 to Arlington Asset Investment Corp (AAIC). This can be considered as Overvalued.


What is the profitability of AAIC stock?

Arlington Asset Investment Corp (AAIC) has a profitability rating of 2 / 10.


How financially healthy is Arlington Asset Investment Corp?

The financial health rating of Arlington Asset Investment Corp (AAIC) is 1 / 10.


How sustainable is the dividend of Arlington Asset Investment Corp (AAIC) stock?

The dividend rating of Arlington Asset Investment Corp (AAIC) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is -86.96%.