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Arlington Asset Investment Corp (AAIC) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:AAIC - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US0413562051 - REIT - Currency: USD

4.84  +0.07 (+1.47%)

After market: 4.84 0 (0%)

Fundamental Rating

2

We assign a fundamental rating of 2 out of 10 to AAIC. AAIC was compared to 65 industry peers in the Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)" industry. AAIC has a bad profitability rating. Also its financial health evaluation is rather negative. While showing a medium growth rate, AAIC is valued expensive at the moment.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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2

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

AAIC had positive earnings in the past year.
AAIC had a negative operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AAIC reported negative net income in multiple years.
AAIC had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
AAIC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAAIC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 50M -50M 100M

1.2 Ratios

AAIC has a worse Return On Assets (-0.27%) than 65.63% of its industry peers.
AAIC's Return On Equity of -1.08% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AAIC is outperformed by 62.50% of its industry peers.
AAIC's Return On Invested Capital of 0.19% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AAIC is outperformed by 62.50% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -0.27%
ROE -1.08%
ROIC 0.19%
ROA(3y)-2.37%
ROA(5y)-1.82%
ROE(3y)-11.03%
ROE(5y)-12.68%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
AAIC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAAIC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 -10 -20 -30

1.3 Margins

AAIC's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AAIC has a Operating Margin of 4.02%. This is in the lower half of the industry: AAIC underperforms 62.50% of its industry peers.
AAIC's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of AAIC (36.78%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AAIC has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 4.02%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 36.78%
OM growth 3Y18.88%
OM growth 5Y-16.44%
PM growth 3Y-17.2%
PM growth 5Y-18.06%
GM growth 3Y36.91%
GM growth 5Y-0.28%
AAIC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAAIC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 -500 -1K

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1

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

The number of shares outstanding for AAIC has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AAIC has a worse debt to assets ratio.
AAIC Yearly Shares OutstandingAAIC Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 10M 20M 30M
AAIC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAAIC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1B 2B 3B 4B

2.2 Solvency

AAIC has an Altman-Z score of -3.28. This is a bad value and indicates that AAIC is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
AAIC's Altman-Z score of -3.28 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AAIC is outperformed by 98.44% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 3.01 is on the high side and indicates that AAIC has dependencies on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of AAIC (3.01) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.01
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z -3.28
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACCN/A
AAIC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAAIC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 100M 200M 300M 400M

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 0.36 indicates that AAIC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of AAIC (0.36) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.36 indicates that AAIC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AAIC has a Quick ratio (0.36) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.36
Quick Ratio 0.36
AAIC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAAIC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1B 2B 3B

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4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

AAIC shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 17.39%, which is quite good.
Measured over the past years, AAIC shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -33.34% on average per year.
The Revenue has grown by 17.04% in the past year. This is quite good.
Measured over the past years, AAIC shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -16.37% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)17.39%
EPS 3Y-30.92%
EPS 5Y-33.34%
EPS Q2Q%-36.36%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)17.04%
Revenue growth 3Y-25.55%
Revenue growth 5Y-16.37%
Sales Q2Q%-64.33%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -4.19% on average over the next years.
Based on estimates for the next years, AAIC will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 6.81% on average per year.
EPS Next Y0.98%
EPS Next 2Y-4.19%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-6.88%
Revenue Next 2Y6.81%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
AAIC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAAIC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 50M 100M
AAIC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAAIC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1 2 3 4 5

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1

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 17.93, the valuation of AAIC can be described as rather expensive.
AAIC's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AAIC to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.45), we can say AAIC is valued slightly cheaper.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 17.57, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of AAIC.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AAIC is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 70.31% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.90, AAIC is valued at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 17.93
Fwd PE 17.57
AAIC Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAAIC Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA N/A
AAIC Per share dataAAIC EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 2 4 6

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
A cheap valuation may be justified as AAIC's earnings are expected to decrease with -4.19% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)18.29
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-4.19%
EPS Next 3YN/A

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0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

AAIC does not give a dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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Arlington Asset Investment Corp

NYSE:AAIC (12/13/2023, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 4.84 0 (0%)

4.84

+0.07 (+1.47%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryMortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)"
Earnings (Last)11-13 2023-11-13/bmo
Earnings (Next)03-29 2024-03-29/amc
Inst Owners43%
Inst Owner ChangeN/A
Ins OwnersN/A
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap137.07M
Analysts77.78
Price Target5.61 (15.91%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly Dividend0.09
Dividend Growth(5Y)-47.16%
DP-86.96%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-0.77%
Min EPS beat(2)-8.5%
Max EPS beat(2)6.95%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-5.02%
Min EPS beat(4)-34.64%
Max EPS beat(4)16.1%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)10.25%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)21.86%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)20.88%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)114.9%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.22%
Max Revenue beat(2)234.03%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)82.39%
Min Revenue beat(4)-4.22%
Max Revenue beat(4)234.03%
Revenue beat(8)7
Avg Revenue beat(8)85.94%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)80.72%
Revenue beat(16)12
Avg Revenue beat(16)39.2%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)18.92%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 17.93
Fwd PE 17.57
P/S 2.63
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF N/A
P/B 0.64
P/tB 0.64
EV/EBITDA N/A
EPS(TTM)0.27
EY5.58%
EPS(NY)0.28
Fwd EY5.69%
FCF(TTM)-0.43
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-0.43
OCFYN/A
SpS1.84
BVpS7.52
TBVpS7.52
PEG (NY)18.29
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -0.27%
ROE -1.08%
ROCE 0.67%
ROIC 0.19%
ROICexc 0.19%
ROICexgc 0.2%
OM 4.02%
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 36.78%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)-2.37%
ROA(5y)-1.82%
ROE(3y)-11.03%
ROE(5y)-12.68%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y41.72%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-6.71%
ROICexc growth 3Y41.32%
ROICexc growth 5Y-6.79%
OM growth 3Y18.88%
OM growth 5Y-16.44%
PM growth 3Y-17.2%
PM growth 5Y-18.06%
GM growth 3Y36.91%
GM growth 5Y-0.28%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.06
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.01
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA N/A
Cap/Depr N/A
Cap/Sales N/A
Interest Coverage 0.07
Cash Conversion N/A
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 0.36
Quick Ratio 0.36
Altman-Z -3.28
F-Score4
WACCN/A
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)17.39%
EPS 3Y-30.92%
EPS 5Y-33.34%
EPS Q2Q%-36.36%
EPS Next Y0.98%
EPS Next 2Y-4.19%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)17.04%
Revenue growth 3Y-25.55%
Revenue growth 5Y-16.37%
Sales Q2Q%-64.33%
Revenue Next Year-6.88%
Revenue Next 2Y6.81%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-78.57%
EBIT growth 3Y-11.49%
EBIT growth 5Y-30.12%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-258.44%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-258.44%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A