ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AA - US0138721065 - Common Stock
51.25 USD
+3.07 (+6.37%)
51.58 USD
+0.33 (+0.64%)
AA gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 156 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AA while its profitability can be described as average. AA may be a bit undervalued, certainly considering the very reasonable score on growth
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AA was profitable.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years AA reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
In the past 5 years AA always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 7.18%, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 78.85% of the companies in the same industry.
AA has a better Return On Equity (18.06%) than 90.38% of its industry peers.
AA's Return On Invested Capital of 8.70% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 73.72% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AA has a Profit Margin of 8.91%. This is in the better half of the industry: AA outperforms 75.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AA has declined.
AA's Operating Margin of 10.77% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 64.74% of its industry peers.
AA's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AA's Gross Margin of 18.41% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 53.85% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AA has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AA has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for AA has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for AA is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
AA has an Altman-Z score of 1.97. This is not the best score and indicates that AA is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of AA (1.97) is worse than 71.15% of its industry peers.
AA has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.97. This is a neutral value as AA would need 4.97 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AA (4.97) is better than 67.95% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.41 indicates that AA is not too dependend on debt financing.
AA's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.41 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AA is outperformed by 73.08% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.97 |
ROIC/WACC0.87
WACC10.03%
2.3 Liquidity
AA has a Current Ratio of 1.56. This is a normal value and indicates that AA is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AA's Current ratio of 1.56 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AA is outperformed by 72.44% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.91 indicates that AA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AA's Quick ratio of 0.91 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AA is outperformed by 75.64% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 656.25% over the past year.
The earnings per share for AA have been decreasing by -48.01% on average. This is quite bad
Looking at the last year, AA shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 16.94% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, AA shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 2.66% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
3.2 Future
AA is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 19.17% yearly.
AA is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -0.55% yearly.
EPS Next Y268.72%
EPS Next 2Y92.53%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue Next Year7.53%
Revenue Next 2Y6.16%
Revenue Next 3Y4.52%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 14.40, AA is valued correctly.
AA's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 93.59% of the companies in the same industry.
AA is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.38, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 14.40, which indicates a correct valuation of AA.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than 70.51% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.83, AA is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.4 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.4 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AA is valued cheaper than 90.38% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AA is valued cheaper than 82.05% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 25.57 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.76 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AA's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
AA's earnings are expected to grow with 61.29% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.05
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y92.53%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AA has a yearly dividend return of 0.85%, which is pretty low.
AA's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 1.03.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.85, AA pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 1.87.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.85% |
5.2 History
AA has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
AA pays out 9.25% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP9.25%
EPS Next 2Y92.53%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
51.25
+3.07 (+6.37%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners97.3%
Inst Owner Change22.92%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0.01%
Market Cap13.27B
Revenue(TTM)12.87B
Net Income(TTM)1.15B
Analysts78.18
Price Target42.07 (-17.91%)
Short Float %2.69%
Short Ratio1
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.85% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP9.25%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)56.23%
Min EPS beat(2)21.88%
Max EPS beat(2)90.58%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)36.9%
Min EPS beat(4)3.63%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)39.11%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)21.11%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)1.64%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(2)1%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.03%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.97%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-3.12%
PT rev (1m)4.21%
PT rev (3m)20.39%
EPS NQ rev (1m)2.02%
EPS NQ rev (3m)69.82%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.64%
EPS NY rev (3m)8.3%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.65%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)4.77%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.08%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.11%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.4 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.4 | ||
| P/S | 1.03 | ||
| P/FCF | 25.57 | ||
| P/OCF | 12.49 | ||
| P/B | 2.09 | ||
| P/tB | 2.15 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.76 |
EPS(TTM)3.56
EY6.95%
EPS(NY)3.56
Fwd EY6.94%
FCF(TTM)2
FCFY3.91%
OCF(TTM)4.1
OCFY8.01%
SpS49.69
BVpS24.5
TBVpS23.81
PEG (NY)0.05
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.3
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROCE | 11.01% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.86% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.03% | ||
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% | ||
| FCFM | 4.03% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.91%
ROICexgc growth 5Y3.19%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.93%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.18%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.81
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.29 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 87.74% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.23% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 52.99% | ||
| Profit Quality | 45.29% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.97 |
F-Score7
WACC10.03%
ROIC/WACC0.87
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
EPS Next Y268.72%
EPS Next 2Y92.53%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
Revenue Next Year7.53%
Revenue Next 2Y6.16%
Revenue Next 3Y4.52%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
EBIT growth 1Y377.93%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year107.52%
EBIT Next 3Y34.64%
EBIT Next 5Y9.85%
FCF growth 1Y203.18%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y9563.64%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%
ALCOA CORP / AA FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AA.
Can you provide the valuation status for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 7 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Undervalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ALCOA CORP?
ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ALCOA CORP (AA) is 14.4 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.09.
What is the earnings growth outlook for ALCOA CORP?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ALCOA CORP (AA) is expected to grow by 268.72% in the next year.