ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AA - US0138721065 - Common Stock
35.8 USD
-1.79 (-4.76%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to AA. AA was compared to 154 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. While AA is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. AA is valued quite cheap, while showing a decent growth score. This is a good combination!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AA had positive earnings in the past year.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years AA reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years AA had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
With a decent Return On Assets value of 7.18%, AA is doing good in the industry, outperforming 79.87% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Equity of AA (18.06%) is better than 90.91% of its industry peers.
AA's Return On Invested Capital of 8.70% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 75.32% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AA's Profit Margin of 8.91% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 75.32% of its industry peers.
AA's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With a decent Operating Margin value of 10.77%, AA is doing good in the industry, outperforming 66.23% of the companies in the same industry.
AA's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AA has a Gross Margin (18.41%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
AA's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AA is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, AA has more shares outstanding
AA has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AA has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.80, we must say that AA is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of AA (1.80) is worse than 70.13% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AA is 4.97, which is a neutral value as it means it would take AA, 4.97 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
AA has a better Debt to FCF ratio (4.97) than 71.43% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.41 indicates that AA is not too dependend on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of AA (0.41) is worse than 74.03% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.8 |
ROIC/WACC0.92
WACC9.49%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.56 indicates that AA should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.56, AA is not doing good in the industry: 72.73% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
A Quick Ratio of 0.91 indicates that AA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.91, AA is not doing good in the industry: 77.92% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AA shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 656.25%, which is quite impressive.
The earnings per share for AA have been decreasing by -48.01% on average. This is quite bad
Looking at the last year, AA shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 16.94% in the last year.
AA shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 2.66% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 19.17% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
Based on estimates for the next years, AA will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -0.55% on average per year.
EPS Next Y266.36%
EPS Next 2Y84.93%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue Next Year7.44%
Revenue Next 2Y4.44%
Revenue Next 3Y4.05%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 10.06 indicates a reasonable valuation of AA.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AA indicates a rather cheap valuation: AA is cheaper than 97.40% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 25.89. AA is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.90, the valuation of AA can be described as reasonable.
75.97% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 34.59, AA is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.06 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.9 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AA is valued cheaply inside the industry as 93.51% of the companies are valued more expensively.
AA's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 87.01% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 17.86 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.4 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AA's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
AA's earnings are expected to grow with 61.29% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.04
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y84.93%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AA has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.05%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
AA's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 2.63.
With a Dividend Yield of 1.05, AA pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.44.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.05% |
5.2 History
AA has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
AA pays out 9.25% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP9.25%
EPS Next 2Y84.93%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
NYSE:AA (11/17/2025, 3:52:09 PM)
35.8
-1.79 (-4.76%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners81.04%
Inst Owner Change22.91%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0.04%
Market Cap9.27B
Revenue(TTM)12.87B
Net Income(TTM)1.15B
Analysts78.18
Price Target40.37 (12.77%)
Short Float %4.43%
Short Ratio1.68
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.05% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP9.25%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)56.23%
Min EPS beat(2)21.88%
Max EPS beat(2)90.58%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)36.9%
Min EPS beat(4)3.63%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)39.11%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)21.11%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)1.64%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(2)1%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.03%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.97%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-3.12%
PT rev (1m)13.86%
PT rev (3m)15.86%
EPS NQ rev (1m)36.32%
EPS NQ rev (3m)60.54%
EPS NY rev (1m)9.29%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.84%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.96%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)5.46%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.64%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.02%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.06 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.9 | ||
| P/S | 0.72 | ||
| P/FCF | 17.86 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.72 | ||
| P/B | 1.46 | ||
| P/tB | 1.5 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.4 |
EPS(TTM)3.56
EY9.94%
EPS(NY)3.28
Fwd EY9.17%
FCF(TTM)2
FCFY5.6%
OCF(TTM)4.11
OCFY11.47%
SpS49.7
BVpS24.51
TBVpS23.82
PEG (NY)0.04
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.31
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROCE | 11.01% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.86% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.03% | ||
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% | ||
| FCFM | 4.03% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.91%
ROICexgc growth 5Y3.19%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.93%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.18%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.81
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.29 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 87.74% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.23% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 52.99% | ||
| Profit Quality | 45.29% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.8 |
F-Score7
WACC9.49%
ROIC/WACC0.92
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
EPS Next Y266.36%
EPS Next 2Y84.93%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
Revenue Next Year7.44%
Revenue Next 2Y4.44%
Revenue Next 3Y4.05%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
EBIT growth 1Y377.93%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year100.13%
EBIT Next 3Y30.43%
EBIT Next 5Y9.85%
FCF growth 1Y203.18%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y9563.64%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%
ALCOA CORP / AA FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AA.
Can you provide the valuation status for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 8 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Undervalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ALCOA CORP?
ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ALCOA CORP (AA) is 10.06 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.46.
What is the earnings growth outlook for ALCOA CORP?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ALCOA CORP (AA) is expected to grow by 266.36% in the next year.