ALCOA CORP (AA) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:AA • US0138721065

Current stock price

72.96 USD
-0.07 (-0.1%)
Last:

This AA fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

6

1. AA Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year AA was profitable.
  • AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AA reported negative net income in multiple years.
  • In the past 5 years AA always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
AA Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAA Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1B -1B 2B

1.2 Ratios

  • AA's Return On Assets of 7.17% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 78.13% of its industry peers.
  • With an excellent Return On Equity value of 18.91%, AA belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 88.75% of the companies in the same industry.
  • AA has a better Return On Invested Capital (7.86%) than 66.88% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.17%
ROE 18.91%
ROIC 7.86%
ROA(3y)1%
ROA(5y)1%
ROE(3y)1.59%
ROE(5y)2.3%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
AA Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAA Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 -10 -20

1.3 Margins

  • AA's Profit Margin of 9.02% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 73.75% of its industry peers.
  • AA has a better Operating Margin (9.56%) than 63.13% of its industry peers.
  • AA's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 16.94%, AA is in line with its industry, outperforming 51.25% of the companies in the same industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 9.56%
PM (TTM) 9.02%
GM 16.94%
OM growth 3Y-4.94%
OM growth 5Y15.55%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.98%
GM growth 5Y3.61%
AA Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAA Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 -10 20

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3

2. AA Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AA is destroying value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for AA has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
  • The number of shares outstanding for AA has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
  • The debt/assets ratio for AA has been reduced compared to a year ago.
AA Yearly Shares OutstandingAA Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 50M 100M 150M 200M 250M
AA Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAA Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5B 10B 15B

2.2 Solvency

  • AA has an Altman-Z score of 2.30. This is not the best score and indicates that AA is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • AA's Altman-Z score of 2.30 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AA is outperformed by 67.50% of its industry peers.
  • AA has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.32. This is a neutral value as AA would need 4.32 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • AA has a better Debt to FCF ratio (4.32) than 70.63% of its industry peers.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.40 indicates that AA is not too dependend on debt financing.
  • With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.40, AA is not doing good in the industry: 68.13% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.4
Debt/FCF 4.32
Altman-Z 2.3
ROIC/WACC0.61
WACC12.85%
AA Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAA Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2B 4B 6B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 1.44 indicates that AA should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
  • The Current ratio of AA (1.44) is worse than 75.00% of its industry peers.
  • AA has a Quick Ratio of 1.44. This is a bad value and indicates that AA is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.87, AA is doing worse than 78.75% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.44
Quick Ratio 0.87
AA Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAA Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

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3

3. AA Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • AA shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 293.75%, which is quite impressive.
  • Measured over the past years, AA shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -7.00% on average per year.
  • AA shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 7.87%.
  • Measured over the past years, AA shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 6.68% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)293.75%
EPS 3Y-7%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%21.15%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.87%
Revenue growth 3Y1.01%
Revenue growth 5Y6.68%
Sales Q2Q%-1.06%

3.2 Future

  • Based on estimates for the next years, AA will show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will decrease by -4.67% on average per year.
  • The Revenue is expected to decrease by -3.76% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y52.32%
EPS Next 2Y25.92%
EPS Next 3Y13.03%
EPS Next 5Y-4.67%
Revenue Next Year12.15%
Revenue Next 2Y5.9%
Revenue Next 3Y3.53%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.76%

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
AA Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAA Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 5B 10B 15B
AA Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAA Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 0 2 -2 4 6

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6

4. AA Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • AA is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 19.30.
  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AA is valued cheaper than 80.63% of the companies in the same industry.
  • When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AA to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.86), we can say AA is valued slightly cheaper.
  • AA is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.67.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than 75.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 37.39, AA is valued rather cheaply.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 19.3
Fwd PE 12.67
AA Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAA Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of AA indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AA is cheaper than 74.38% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • 76.25% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 33.95
EV/EBITDA 10.87
AA Per share dataAA EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30 40

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • The decent profitability rating of AA may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • AA's earnings are expected to grow with 13.03% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.37
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y25.92%
EPS Next 3Y13.03%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

4

5. AA Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • With a yearly dividend of 0.55%, AA is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
  • AA's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 1.09.
  • With a Dividend Yield of 0.55, AA pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 1.82.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.55%

5.2 History

  • AA has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years4
AA Yearly Dividends per shareAA Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 0 0 0 0

5.3 Sustainability

  • AA pays out 9.08% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP9.08%
EPS Next 2Y25.92%
EPS Next 3Y13.03%
AA Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendAA Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500M -500M 1B -1B
AA Dividend Payout.AA Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.AA Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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AA Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

ALCOA CORP

NYSE:AA (4/13/2026, 3:40:53 PM)

72.96

-0.07 (-0.1%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)01-22
Earnings (Next)04-16
Inst Owners83.85%
Inst Owner Change0.02%
Ins Owners0.39%
Ins Owner Change0.41%
Market Cap19.25B
Revenue(TTM)12.83B
Net Income(TTM)1.16B
Analysts76.52
Price Target68.82 (-5.67%)
Short Float %3.28%
Short Ratio1.17
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.55%
Yearly Dividend0.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP9.08%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date03-10
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)62.11%
Min EPS beat(2)33.63%
Max EPS beat(2)90.58%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)44.4%
Min EPS beat(4)21.88%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)38.74%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)21.75%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)2%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.68%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.74%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.94%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.74%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.2%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.63%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.82%
PT rev (1m)8.43%
PT rev (3m)51.49%
EPS NQ rev (1m)23.49%
EPS NQ rev (3m)42.07%
EPS NY rev (1m)26.98%
EPS NY rev (3m)38.62%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.29%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.12%
Revenue NY rev (1m)3.83%
Revenue NY rev (3m)5.69%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 19.3
Fwd PE 12.67
P/S 1.5
P/FCF 33.95
P/OCF 16.25
P/B 3.15
P/tB 3.16
EV/EBITDA 10.87
EPS(TTM)3.78
EY5.18%
EPS(NY)5.76
Fwd EY7.89%
FCF(TTM)2.15
FCFY2.95%
OCF(TTM)4.49
OCFY6.16%
SpS48.63
BVpS23.19
TBVpS23.06
PEG (NY)0.37
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.41
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.17%
ROE 18.91%
ROCE 9.95%
ROIC 7.86%
ROICexc 9.03%
ROICexgc 9.05%
OM 9.56%
PM (TTM) 9.02%
GM 16.94%
FCFM 4.42%
ROA(3y)1%
ROA(5y)1%
ROE(3y)1.59%
ROE(5y)2.3%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-5.47%
ROICexgc growth 5Y22.33%
ROICexc growth 3Y-5.04%
ROICexc growth 5Y22.7%
OM growth 3Y-4.94%
OM growth 5Y15.55%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.98%
GM growth 5Y3.61%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.8
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.4
Debt/FCF 4.32
Debt/EBITDA 1.32
Cap/Depr 99.2%
Cap/Sales 4.82%
Interest Coverage 9.59
Cash Conversion 64.05%
Profit Quality 49.01%
Current Ratio 1.44
Quick Ratio 0.87
Altman-Z 2.3
F-Score6
WACC12.85%
ROIC/WACC0.61
Cap/Depr(3y)91.19%
Cap/Depr(5y)82.02%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.36%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)293.75%
EPS 3Y-7%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%21.15%
EPS Next Y52.32%
EPS Next 2Y25.92%
EPS Next 3Y13.03%
EPS Next 5Y-4.67%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.87%
Revenue growth 3Y1.01%
Revenue growth 5Y6.68%
Sales Q2Q%-1.06%
Revenue Next Year12.15%
Revenue Next 2Y5.9%
Revenue Next 3Y3.53%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.76%
EBIT growth 1Y39.91%
EBIT growth 3Y-3.98%
EBIT growth 5Y23.27%
EBIT Next Year114.48%
EBIT Next 3Y28.23%
EBIT Next 5Y2.98%
FCF growth 1Y1250%
FCF growth 3Y18.35%
FCF growth 5Y69.11%
OCF growth 1Y90.51%
OCF growth 3Y12.97%
OCF growth 5Y24.64%

ALCOA CORP / AA Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AA.


What is the valuation status for AA stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


What is the profitability of AA stock?

ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.


What is the financial health of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?

The financial health rating of ALCOA CORP (AA) is 3 / 10.


What is the expected EPS growth for ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ALCOA CORP (AA) is expected to grow by 52.32% in the next year.