ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AA - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US0138721065 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to AA. AA was compared to 150 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. While AA is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. AA is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AA was profitable.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years AA reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 0.43%, AA is in line with its industry, outperforming 55.94% of the companies in the same industry.
AA has a Return On Equity (1.16%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of AA (6.49%) is better than 69.93% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.43% | ||
| ROE | 1.16% | ||
| ROIC | 6.49% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
With a Profit Margin value of 0.50%, AA perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 58.74% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AA has declined.
The Operating Margin of AA (7.37%) is better than 60.14% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AA has declined.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 15.56%, AA is in line with its industry, outperforming 46.85% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 7.37% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.5% | ||
| GM | 15.56% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AA has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AA has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
AA has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for AA is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.64, we must say that AA is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.64, AA is doing worse than 66.43% of the companies in the same industry.
AA has a debt to FCF ratio of 60.60. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as AA would need 60.60 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 60.60, AA perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 55.94% of the companies in the same industry.
AA has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.48. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.48, AA is doing worse than 76.22% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.48 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 60.6 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.64 |
ROIC/WACC0.61
WACC10.68%
2.3 Liquidity
AA has a Current Ratio of 1.45. This is a normal value and indicates that AA is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AA has a Current ratio of 1.45. This is in the lower half of the industry: AA underperforms 74.83% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.86 indicates that AA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AA has a worse Quick ratio (0.86) than 76.92% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.45 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.86 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AA shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 142.11%, which is quite impressive.
AA shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -48.01% yearly.
The Revenue has grown by 12.74% in the past year. This is quite good.
AA shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 2.66% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)142.11%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%285.71%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)12.74%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%34.34%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 19.84% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
Based on estimates for the next years, AA will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -0.90% on average per year.
EPS Next Y328.58%
EPS Next 2Y92.3%
EPS Next 3Y53.94%
EPS Next 5Y19.84%
Revenue Next Year10.19%
Revenue Next 2Y3.83%
Revenue Next 3Y0.39%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.9%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 37.75, AA can be considered very expensive at the moment.
AA's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 28.47. AA is valued slightly more expensive when compared to this.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 8.81 indicates a reasonable valuation of AA.
AA's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 86.01% of the companies in the same industry.
AA's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 92.74.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 37.75 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.81 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 72.73% of the companies are valued more expensively.
AA's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 222.92 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.73 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AA's earnings are expected to grow with 53.94% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.11
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y92.3%
EPS Next 3Y53.94%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.13%, AA has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
AA's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 3.15.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.28, AA's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.13% |
5.2 History
AA has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
AA pays out 150.00% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
DP150%
EPS Next 2Y92.3%
EPS Next 3Y53.94%
ALCOA CORP
NYSE:AA (2/4/2025, 8:24:23 PM)
After market: 36.25 +0.01 (+0.03%)36.24
+2.13 (+6.24%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners63.76%
Inst Owner Change0.3%
Ins Owners0.73%
Ins Owner Change1.1%
Market Cap9.36B
Analysts81.9
Price Target50.19 (38.49%)
Short Float %3.54%
Short Ratio1.98
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.13% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP150%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)50.18%
Min EPS beat(2)3.63%
Max EPS beat(2)96.74%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)33.09%
Min EPS beat(4)-38.91%
Max EPS beat(4)96.74%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)10.42%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)-12.13%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)-2.23%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.8%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.97%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.37%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.47%
Min Revenue beat(4)-4.97%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.47%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.78%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.45%
PT rev (1m)0.4%
PT rev (3m)4.17%
EPS NQ rev (1m)55.78%
EPS NQ rev (3m)252.78%
EPS NY rev (1m)8.98%
EPS NY rev (3m)43.79%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)20.59%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)31.7%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.84%
Revenue NY rev (3m)13.37%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 37.75 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.81 | ||
| P/S | 0.79 | ||
| P/FCF | 222.92 | ||
| P/OCF | 15.05 | ||
| P/B | 1.81 | ||
| P/tB | 1.81 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.73 |
EPS(TTM)0.96
EY2.65%
EPS(NY)4.11
Fwd EY11.35%
FCF(TTM)0.16
FCFY0.45%
OCF(TTM)2.41
OCFY6.64%
SpS46.04
BVpS19.97
TBVpS19.97
PEG (NY)0.11
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.43% | ||
| ROE | 1.16% | ||
| ROCE | 8.22% | ||
| ROIC | 6.49% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.27% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.27% | ||
| OM | 7.37% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.5% | ||
| GM | 15.56% | ||
| FCFM | 0.35% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-24.26%
ROICexcg growth 5Y2.91%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.8%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.28%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.85
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.48 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 60.6 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.63 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 90.34% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.88% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 40.95% | ||
| Profit Quality | 70% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.45 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.86 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.64 |
F-Score6
WACC10.68%
ROIC/WACC0.61
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)142.11%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%285.71%
EPS Next Y328.58%
EPS Next 2Y92.3%
EPS Next 3Y53.94%
EPS Next 5Y19.84%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)12.74%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%34.34%
Revenue Next Year10.19%
Revenue Next 2Y3.83%
Revenue Next 3Y0.39%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.9%
EBIT growth 1Y651.57%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year168.42%
EBIT Next 3Y20.62%
EBIT Next 5Y10.7%
FCF growth 1Y109.55%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y583.52%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%