ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AA - US0138721065 - Common Stock
35.83 USD
-0.89 (-2.42%)
36.0954 USD
+0.27 (+0.74%)
AA gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 154 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. While AA is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. AA is valued quite cheap, while showing a decent growth score. This is a good combination!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AA was profitable.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years AA reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years AA had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
AA has a better Return On Assets (7.18%) than 79.87% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 18.06%, AA belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 90.91% of the companies in the same industry.
With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 8.70%, AA is doing good in the industry, outperforming 75.32% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 8.91%, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 75.32% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AA has declined.
The Operating Margin of AA (10.77%) is better than 66.23% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AA has declined.
AA's Gross Margin of 18.41% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 56.49% of its industry peers.
AA's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AA has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
AA has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for AA has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for AA is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.77, we must say that AA is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
AA has a worse Altman-Z score (1.77) than 69.48% of its industry peers.
AA has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.97. This is a neutral value as AA would need 4.97 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 4.97, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 71.43% of the companies in the same industry.
AA has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.41. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.41, AA is not doing good in the industry: 74.03% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.77 |
ROIC/WACC0.92
WACC9.42%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.56 indicates that AA should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
AA has a Current ratio of 1.56. This is in the lower half of the industry: AA underperforms 72.73% of its industry peers.
AA has a Quick Ratio of 1.56. This is a bad value and indicates that AA is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AA has a worse Quick ratio (0.91) than 77.27% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AA shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 656.25%, which is quite impressive.
Measured over the past years, AA shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -48.01% on average per year.
The Revenue has grown by 16.94% in the past year. This is quite good.
AA shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 2.66% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 19.17% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -0.55% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y266.36%
EPS Next 2Y84.93%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue Next Year7.44%
Revenue Next 2Y4.44%
Revenue Next 3Y4.05%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 10.06, which indicates a very decent valuation of AA.
AA's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 97.40% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 25.07. AA is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.91, the valuation of AA can be described as very reasonable.
AA's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 74.68% of the companies in the same industry.
AA's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 34.08.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.06 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.91 |
4.2 Price Multiples
93.51% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AA is valued cheaply inside the industry as 87.66% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 17.87 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.17 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AA's earnings are expected to grow with 61.29% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.04
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y84.93%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.05%, AA has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.63, AA pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.44, AA's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.05% |
5.2 History
AA has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
9.25% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AA. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP9.25%
EPS Next 2Y84.93%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
35.83
-0.89 (-2.42%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners81.04%
Inst Owner Change22.91%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0.04%
Market Cap9.28B
Revenue(TTM)12.87B
Net Income(TTM)1.15B
Analysts78.18
Price Target40.37 (12.67%)
Short Float %4.79%
Short Ratio1.73
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.05% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP9.25%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)56.23%
Min EPS beat(2)21.88%
Max EPS beat(2)90.58%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)36.9%
Min EPS beat(4)3.63%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)39.11%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)21.11%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)1.64%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(2)1%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.03%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.97%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-3.12%
PT rev (1m)13.86%
PT rev (3m)15.86%
EPS NQ rev (1m)36.32%
EPS NQ rev (3m)60.54%
EPS NY rev (1m)9.29%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.84%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.96%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)5.46%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.64%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.02%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.06 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.91 | ||
| P/S | 0.72 | ||
| P/FCF | 17.87 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.73 | ||
| P/B | 1.46 | ||
| P/tB | 1.5 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.17 |
EPS(TTM)3.56
EY9.94%
EPS(NY)3.28
Fwd EY9.16%
FCF(TTM)2
FCFY5.59%
OCF(TTM)4.11
OCFY11.46%
SpS49.7
BVpS24.51
TBVpS23.82
PEG (NY)0.04
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.31
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROCE | 11.01% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.86% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.03% | ||
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% | ||
| FCFM | 4.03% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.91%
ROICexgc growth 5Y3.19%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.93%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.18%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.81
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.29 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 87.74% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.23% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 52.99% | ||
| Profit Quality | 45.29% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.77 |
F-Score7
WACC9.42%
ROIC/WACC0.92
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
EPS Next Y266.36%
EPS Next 2Y84.93%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
Revenue Next Year7.44%
Revenue Next 2Y4.44%
Revenue Next 3Y4.05%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
EBIT growth 1Y377.93%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year100.13%
EBIT Next 3Y30.43%
EBIT Next 5Y9.85%
FCF growth 1Y203.18%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y9563.64%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%
ALCOA CORP / AA FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AA.
Can you provide the valuation status for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 8 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Undervalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ALCOA CORP?
ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ALCOA CORP (AA) is 10.06 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.46.
What is the earnings growth outlook for ALCOA CORP?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ALCOA CORP (AA) is expected to grow by 266.36% in the next year.