ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AA - US0138721065 - Common Stock
41.74 USD
+0.17 (+0.41%)
41.9372 USD
+0.2 (+0.47%)
Taking everything into account, AA scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AA was compared to 154 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. While AA is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. AA is valued quite cheap, while showing a decent growth score. This is a good combination!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AA had positive earnings in the past year.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AA reported negative net income in multiple years.
In the past 5 years AA always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
AA has a better Return On Assets (7.18%) than 79.74% of its industry peers.
AA's Return On Equity of 18.06% is amongst the best of the industry. AA outperforms 90.85% of its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 8.70%, AA is doing good in the industry, outperforming 75.16% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 8.91%, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 75.82% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AA has declined.
With a decent Operating Margin value of 10.77%, AA is doing good in the industry, outperforming 66.67% of the companies in the same industry.
AA's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of AA (18.41%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
AA's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AA has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, AA has more shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, AA has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, AA has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
AA has an Altman-Z score of 1.87. This is not the best score and indicates that AA is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
AA has a worse Altman-Z score (1.87) than 69.28% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AA is 4.97, which is a neutral value as it means it would take AA, 4.97 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
AA's Debt to FCF ratio of 4.97 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 69.93% of its industry peers.
AA has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.41. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.41, AA is doing worse than 73.86% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.87 |
ROIC/WACC0.93
WACC9.32%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.56 indicates that AA should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of AA (1.56) is worse than 72.55% of its industry peers.
AA has a Quick Ratio of 1.56. This is a bad value and indicates that AA is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of AA (0.91) is worse than 76.47% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AA shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 656.25%, which is quite impressive.
AA shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -48.01% yearly.
AA shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 16.94%.
Measured over the past years, AA shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 2.66% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 19.17% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
Based on estimates for the next years, AA will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -0.55% on average per year.
EPS Next Y266.36%
EPS Next 2Y84.93%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue Next Year7.44%
Revenue Next 2Y4.44%
Revenue Next 3Y4.05%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 11.72, the valuation of AA can be described as very reasonable.
96.73% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
AA's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 26.31.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.71 indicates a correct valuation of AA.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AA indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AA is cheaper than 73.20% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 36.59, AA is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.72 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.71 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AA is valued cheaply inside the industry as 92.16% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of AA indicates a rather cheap valuation: AA is cheaper than 86.93% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 20.83 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.91 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AA's earnings are expected to grow with 61.29% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.04
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y84.93%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.96%, AA is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
AA's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 2.63.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.34, AA's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.96% |
5.2 History
AA has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
9.25% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AA. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP9.25%
EPS Next 2Y84.93%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
41.74
+0.17 (+0.41%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners81.04%
Inst Owner Change22.91%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0.01%
Market Cap10.81B
Revenue(TTM)12.87B
Net Income(TTM)1.15B
Analysts78.18
Price Target40.29 (-3.47%)
Short Float %4.79%
Short Ratio1.73
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.96% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP9.25%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)56.23%
Min EPS beat(2)21.88%
Max EPS beat(2)90.58%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)36.9%
Min EPS beat(4)3.63%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)39.11%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)21.11%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)1.64%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(2)1%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.03%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.97%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-3.12%
PT rev (1m)13.62%
PT rev (3m)15.62%
EPS NQ rev (1m)28.96%
EPS NQ rev (3m)60.54%
EPS NY rev (1m)17.7%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.84%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.45%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)4.55%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.02%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.72 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.71 | ||
| P/S | 0.84 | ||
| P/FCF | 20.83 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.17 | ||
| P/B | 1.7 | ||
| P/tB | 1.75 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.91 |
EPS(TTM)3.56
EY8.53%
EPS(NY)3.28
Fwd EY7.87%
FCF(TTM)2
FCFY4.8%
OCF(TTM)4.1
OCFY9.83%
SpS49.69
BVpS24.5
TBVpS23.81
PEG (NY)0.04
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.3
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROCE | 11.01% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.86% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.03% | ||
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% | ||
| FCFM | 4.03% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.91%
ROICexgc growth 5Y3.19%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.93%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.18%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.81
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.29 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 87.74% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.23% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 52.99% | ||
| Profit Quality | 45.29% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.87 |
F-Score7
WACC9.32%
ROIC/WACC0.93
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
EPS Next Y266.36%
EPS Next 2Y84.93%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
Revenue Next Year7.44%
Revenue Next 2Y4.44%
Revenue Next 3Y4.05%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
EBIT growth 1Y377.93%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year100.13%
EBIT Next 3Y30.43%
EBIT Next 5Y9.85%
FCF growth 1Y203.18%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y9563.64%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%
ALCOA CORP / AA FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to AA.
Can you provide the valuation status for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 8 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Undervalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ALCOA CORP?
ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ALCOA CORP (AA) is 11.72 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.7.
What is the earnings growth outlook for ALCOA CORP?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ALCOA CORP (AA) is expected to grow by 266.36% in the next year.