ALCOA CORP (AA) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:AA • US0138721065

Current stock price

71.53 USD
-0.53 (-0.74%)
At close:
71.6532 USD
+0.12 (+0.17%)
After Hours:

This AA fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

6

1. AA Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year AA was profitable.
  • AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AA reported negative net income in multiple years.
  • Each year in the past 5 years AA had a positive operating cash flow.
AA Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAA Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1B -1B 2B

1.2 Ratios

  • AA's Return On Assets of 7.17% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 77.85% of its industry peers.
  • AA has a Return On Equity of 18.91%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AA outperforms 88.61% of its industry peers.
  • AA's Return On Invested Capital of 7.86% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 67.72% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.17%
ROE 18.91%
ROIC 7.86%
ROA(3y)1%
ROA(5y)1%
ROE(3y)1.59%
ROE(5y)2.3%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
AA Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAA Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 -10 -20

1.3 Margins

  • AA has a Profit Margin of 9.02%. This is in the better half of the industry: AA outperforms 73.42% of its industry peers.
  • The Operating Margin of AA (9.56%) is better than 64.56% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AA has grown nicely.
  • The Gross Margin of AA (16.94%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 9.56%
PM (TTM) 9.02%
GM 16.94%
OM growth 3Y-4.94%
OM growth 5Y15.55%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.98%
GM growth 5Y3.61%
AA Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAA Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 -10 20

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3

2. AA Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AA is destroying value.
  • AA has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
  • The number of shares outstanding for AA has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, AA has an improved debt to assets ratio.
AA Yearly Shares OutstandingAA Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 50M 100M 150M 200M 250M
AA Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAA Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5B 10B 15B

2.2 Solvency

  • AA has an Altman-Z score of 2.28. This is not the best score and indicates that AA is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • The Altman-Z score of AA (2.28) is worse than 65.82% of its industry peers.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of AA is 4.32, which is a neutral value as it means it would take AA, 4.32 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of AA (4.32) is better than 71.52% of its industry peers.
  • AA has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.40. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
  • Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.40, AA is doing worse than 65.82% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.4
Debt/FCF 4.32
Altman-Z 2.28
ROIC/WACC0.61
WACC12.88%
AA Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAA Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2B 4B 6B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 1.44 indicates that AA should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
  • AA's Current ratio of 1.44 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AA is outperformed by 72.78% of its industry peers.
  • AA has a Quick Ratio of 1.44. This is a bad value and indicates that AA is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • AA has a Quick ratio of 0.87. This is in the lower half of the industry: AA underperforms 76.58% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.44
Quick Ratio 0.87
AA Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAA Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

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3

3. AA Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 293.75% over the past year.
  • Measured over the past years, AA shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -7.00% on average per year.
  • The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.87% in the past year.
  • The Revenue has been growing slightly by 6.68% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)293.75%
EPS 3Y-7%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%21.15%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.87%
Revenue growth 3Y1.01%
Revenue growth 5Y6.68%
Sales Q2Q%-1.06%

3.2 Future

  • Based on estimates for the next years, AA will show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will decrease by -4.67% on average per year.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, AA will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -3.76% on average per year.
EPS Next Y22.27%
EPS Next 2Y19%
EPS Next 3Y15.04%
EPS Next 5Y-4.67%
Revenue Next Year11.17%
Revenue Next 2Y5.52%
Revenue Next 3Y3.68%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.76%

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
AA Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAA Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 5B 10B 15B
AA Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAA Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 0 2 -2 4 6

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6

4. AA Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • With a Price/Earnings ratio of 18.92, AA is valued on the expensive side.
  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AA is valued cheaper than 80.38% of the companies in the same industry.
  • When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AA to the average of the S&P500 Index (25.60), we can say AA is valued slightly cheaper.
  • With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.48, AA is valued correctly.
  • 67.72% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.84, AA is valued a bit cheaper.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 18.92
Fwd PE 15.48
AA Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAA Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than 74.68% of the companies in the same industry.
  • 76.58% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 33.28
EV/EBITDA 10.66
AA Per share dataAA EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30 40

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • AA's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • AA has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • A more expensive valuation may be justified as AA's earnings are expected to grow with 15.04% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.85
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y19%
EPS Next 3Y15.04%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

4

5. AA Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • AA has a yearly dividend return of 0.69%, which is pretty low.
  • AA's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 1.21.
  • With a Dividend Yield of 0.69, AA pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 1.88.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.69%

5.2 History

  • AA has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
  • AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
AA Yearly Dividends per shareAA Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 0 0 0 0

5.3 Sustainability

  • 9.08% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AA. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP9.08%
EPS Next 2Y19%
EPS Next 3Y15.04%
AA Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendAA Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500M -500M 1B -1B
AA Dividend Payout.AA Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.AA Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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AA Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

ALCOA CORP

NYSE:AA (4/2/2026, 8:06:30 PM)

After market: 71.6532 +0.12 (+0.17%)

71.53

-0.53 (-0.74%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)01-22
Earnings (Next)04-16
Inst Owners84.1%
Inst Owner Change-13.76%
Ins Owners0.39%
Ins Owner Change0.41%
Market Cap18.87B
Revenue(TTM)12.83B
Net Income(TTM)1.16B
Analysts75.45
Price Target68.29 (-4.53%)
Short Float %3.28%
Short Ratio1.17
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.69%
Yearly Dividend0.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP9.08%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date03-10
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)62.11%
Min EPS beat(2)33.63%
Max EPS beat(2)90.58%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)44.4%
Min EPS beat(4)21.88%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)38.74%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)21.75%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)2%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.68%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.74%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.94%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.74%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.2%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.63%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.82%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)39.71%
EPS NQ rev (1m)25.16%
EPS NQ rev (3m)63.9%
EPS NY rev (1m)1.93%
EPS NY rev (3m)11.27%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)3.67%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)4.41%
Revenue NY rev (1m)2.93%
Revenue NY rev (3m)4.78%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 18.92
Fwd PE 15.48
P/S 1.47
P/FCF 33.28
P/OCF 15.93
P/B 3.08
P/tB 3.1
EV/EBITDA 10.66
EPS(TTM)3.78
EY5.28%
EPS(NY)4.62
Fwd EY6.46%
FCF(TTM)2.15
FCFY3%
OCF(TTM)4.49
OCFY6.28%
SpS48.63
BVpS23.19
TBVpS23.06
PEG (NY)0.85
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.41
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.17%
ROE 18.91%
ROCE 9.95%
ROIC 7.86%
ROICexc 9.03%
ROICexgc 9.05%
OM 9.56%
PM (TTM) 9.02%
GM 16.94%
FCFM 4.42%
ROA(3y)1%
ROA(5y)1%
ROE(3y)1.59%
ROE(5y)2.3%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-5.47%
ROICexgc growth 5Y22.33%
ROICexc growth 3Y-5.04%
ROICexc growth 5Y22.7%
OM growth 3Y-4.94%
OM growth 5Y15.55%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.98%
GM growth 5Y3.61%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.8
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.4
Debt/FCF 4.32
Debt/EBITDA 1.32
Cap/Depr 99.2%
Cap/Sales 4.82%
Interest Coverage 9.59
Cash Conversion 64.05%
Profit Quality 49.01%
Current Ratio 1.44
Quick Ratio 0.87
Altman-Z 2.28
F-Score6
WACC12.88%
ROIC/WACC0.61
Cap/Depr(3y)91.19%
Cap/Depr(5y)82.02%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.36%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)293.75%
EPS 3Y-7%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%21.15%
EPS Next Y22.27%
EPS Next 2Y19%
EPS Next 3Y15.04%
EPS Next 5Y-4.67%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.87%
Revenue growth 3Y1.01%
Revenue growth 5Y6.68%
Sales Q2Q%-1.06%
Revenue Next Year11.17%
Revenue Next 2Y5.52%
Revenue Next 3Y3.68%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.76%
EBIT growth 1Y39.91%
EBIT growth 3Y-3.98%
EBIT growth 5Y23.27%
EBIT Next Year88.81%
EBIT Next 3Y28.6%
EBIT Next 5Y2.98%
FCF growth 1Y1250%
FCF growth 3Y18.35%
FCF growth 5Y69.11%
OCF growth 1Y90.51%
OCF growth 3Y12.97%
OCF growth 5Y24.64%

ALCOA CORP / AA Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AA.


What is the valuation status for AA stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


What is the profitability of AA stock?

ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.


What is the financial health of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?

The financial health rating of ALCOA CORP (AA) is 3 / 10.


What is the expected EPS growth for ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ALCOA CORP (AA) is expected to grow by 22.27% in the next year.