ALCOA CORP (AA) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:AA • US0138721065

Current stock price

62.46 USD
-0.71 (-1.12%)
At close:
62.57 USD
+0.11 (+0.18%)
Pre-Market:

This AA fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

6

1. AA Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • AA had positive earnings in the past year.
  • AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AA reported negative net income in multiple years.
  • AA had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
AA Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAA Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1B -1B 2B

1.2 Ratios

  • With a decent Return On Assets value of 6.21%, AA is doing good in the industry, outperforming 76.07% of the companies in the same industry.
  • AA's Return On Equity of 15.15% is amongst the best of the industry. AA outperforms 81.60% of its industry peers.
  • AA has a better Return On Invested Capital (5.88%) than 60.12% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 6.21%
ROE 15.15%
ROIC 5.88%
ROA(3y)1%
ROA(5y)1%
ROE(3y)1.59%
ROE(5y)2.3%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
AA Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAA Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 -10 -20

1.3 Margins

  • With a decent Profit Margin value of 8.17%, AA is doing good in the industry, outperforming 71.78% of the companies in the same industry.
  • AA has a Operating Margin (7.53%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • AA's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • AA has a Gross Margin (15.20%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 7.53%
PM (TTM) 8.17%
GM 15.2%
OM growth 3Y-4.94%
OM growth 5Y15.55%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.98%
GM growth 5Y3.61%
AA Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAA Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 -10 20

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3

2. AA Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AA is destroying value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for AA has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
  • AA has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
  • The debt/assets ratio for AA has been reduced compared to a year ago.
AA Yearly Shares OutstandingAA Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 50M 100M 150M 200M 250M
AA Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAA Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5B 10B 15B

2.2 Solvency

  • AA has an Altman-Z score of 2.10. This is not the best score and indicates that AA is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 2.10, AA is doing worse than 69.33% of the companies in the same industry.
  • AA has a debt to FCF ratio of 8.51. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as AA would need 8.51 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • AA's Debt to FCF ratio of 8.51 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 64.42% of its industry peers.
  • AA has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.36. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
  • With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.36, AA is not doing good in the industry: 66.26% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.36
Debt/FCF 8.51
Altman-Z 2.1
ROIC/WACC0.46
WACC12.77%
AA Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAA Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2B 4B 6B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 1.48 indicates that AA should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
  • AA has a Current ratio of 1.48. This is in the lower half of the industry: AA underperforms 71.78% of its industry peers.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.88 indicates that AA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • AA has a worse Quick ratio (0.88) than 77.91% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.48
Quick Ratio 0.88
AA Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAA Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

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2

3. AA Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The earnings per share for AA have decreased strongly by -22.70% in the last year.
  • Measured over the past years, AA shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -7.00% on average per year.
  • The Revenue has decreased by -0.08% in the past year.
  • AA shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 6.68% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-22.7%
EPS 3Y-7%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-34.88%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.08%
Revenue growth 3Y1.01%
Revenue growth 5Y6.68%
Sales Q2Q%-5.22%

3.2 Future

  • AA is expected to show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will decrease by -4.16% yearly.
  • AA is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 0.13% yearly.
EPS Next Y52.32%
EPS Next 2Y25.92%
EPS Next 3Y13.03%
EPS Next 5Y-4.16%
Revenue Next Year13.97%
Revenue Next 2Y6.66%
Revenue Next 3Y3.92%
Revenue Next 5Y0.13%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
AA Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAA Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 5B 10B 15B
AA Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAA Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 0 2 -2 4 6

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6

4. AA Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 20.61, the valuation of AA can be described as rather expensive.
  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 75.46% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.54. AA is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.42, the valuation of AA can be described as reasonable.
  • 77.30% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
  • AA's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 21.68.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 20.61
Fwd PE 10.42
AA Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAA Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 72.39% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • 68.10% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 57.42
EV/EBITDA 11.05
AA Per share dataAA EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30 40

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • AA has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • AA's earnings are expected to grow with 13.03% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.39
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y25.92%
EPS Next 3Y13.03%

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4

5. AA Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • AA has a yearly dividend return of 0.61%, which is pretty low.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 0.99, AA pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.82, AA's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.61%

5.2 History

  • AA has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
  • AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years4
AA Yearly Dividends per shareAA Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 0 0 0 0

5.3 Sustainability

  • AA pays out 10.25% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP10.25%
EPS Next 2Y25.92%
EPS Next 3Y13.03%
AA Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendAA Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500M -500M 1B -1B
AA Dividend Payout.AA Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.AA Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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AA Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

ALCOA CORP

NYSE:AA (4/29/2026, 8:04:00 PM)

Premarket: 62.57 +0.11 (+0.18%)

62.46

-0.71 (-1.12%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Industry Strength98.14
Industry Growth97.52
Earnings (Last)04-16
Earnings (Next)07-14
Inst Owners83.85%
Inst Owner Change0.69%
Ins Owners0.39%
Ins Owner Change0.47%
Market Cap16.48B
Revenue(TTM)12.65B
Net Income(TTM)1.03B
Analysts76.52
Price Target71.71 (14.81%)
Short Float %2.28%
Short Ratio0.96
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.61%
Yearly Dividend0.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP10.25%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date03-10
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)12.32%
Min EPS beat(2)-9%
Max EPS beat(2)33.63%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)34.27%
Min EPS beat(4)-9%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)42.48%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)30.27%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)1.36%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.85%
Min Revenue beat(2)-5.45%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.74%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.45%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.74%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.7%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.65%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.7%
PT rev (1m)12.99%
PT rev (3m)42.92%
EPS NQ rev (1m)25.37%
EPS NQ rev (3m)67.69%
EPS NY rev (1m)24.58%
EPS NY rev (3m)31.03%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)4.11%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)12.85%
Revenue NY rev (1m)2.51%
Revenue NY rev (3m)5.88%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 20.61
Fwd PE 10.42
P/S 1.3
P/FCF 57.42
P/OCF 17.7
P/B 2.41
P/tB 2.41
EV/EBITDA 11.05
EPS(TTM)3.03
EY4.85%
EPS(NY)5.99
Fwd EY9.6%
FCF(TTM)1.09
FCFY1.74%
OCF(TTM)3.53
OCFY5.65%
SpS47.96
BVpS25.87
TBVpS25.87
PEG (NY)0.39
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number41.9961 (-32.76%)
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 6.21%
ROE 15.15%
ROCE 7.44%
ROIC 5.88%
ROICexc 6.57%
ROICexgc 6.57%
OM 7.53%
PM (TTM) 8.17%
GM 15.2%
FCFM 2.27%
ROA(3y)1%
ROA(5y)1%
ROE(3y)1.59%
ROE(5y)2.3%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-5.47%
ROICexgc growth 5Y22.33%
ROICexc growth 3Y-5.04%
ROICexc growth 5Y22.7%
OM growth 3Y-4.94%
OM growth 5Y15.55%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.98%
GM growth 5Y3.61%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.76
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.36
Debt/FCF 8.51
Debt/EBITDA 1.54
Cap/Depr 101.1%
Cap/Sales 5.09%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 58.55%
Profit Quality 27.76%
Current Ratio 1.48
Quick Ratio 0.88
Altman-Z 2.1
F-Score4
WACC12.77%
ROIC/WACC0.46
Cap/Depr(3y)91.19%
Cap/Depr(5y)82.02%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.36%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-22.7%
EPS 3Y-7%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-34.88%
EPS Next Y52.32%
EPS Next 2Y25.92%
EPS Next 3Y13.03%
EPS Next 5Y-4.16%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.08%
Revenue growth 3Y1.01%
Revenue growth 5Y6.68%
Sales Q2Q%-5.22%
Revenue Next Year13.97%
Revenue Next 2Y6.66%
Revenue Next 3Y3.92%
Revenue Next 5Y0.13%
EBIT growth 1Y-40.95%
EBIT growth 3Y-3.98%
EBIT growth 5Y23.27%
EBIT Next Year114.48%
EBIT Next 3Y28.23%
EBIT Next 5Y2.98%
FCF growth 1Y155.41%
FCF growth 3Y18.35%
FCF growth 5Y69.11%
OCF growth 1Y2903.23%
OCF growth 3Y12.97%
OCF growth 5Y24.64%

ALCOA CORP / AA Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AA.


What is the valuation status for AA stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


What is the profitability of AA stock?

ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.


What is the financial health of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?

The financial health rating of ALCOA CORP (AA) is 3 / 10.


What is the expected EPS growth for ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ALCOA CORP (AA) is expected to grow by 52.32% in the next year.