ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AA - US0138721065 - Common Stock
62.88 USD
+1.79 (+2.93%)
Overall AA gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated AA against 157 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AA while its profitability can be described as average. AA has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AA was profitable.
In the past year AA had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AA reported negative net income in multiple years.
Each year in the past 5 years AA had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
With an excellent Return On Assets value of 7.18%, AA belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 80.25% of the companies in the same industry.
AA has a Return On Equity of 18.06%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AA outperforms 91.72% of its industry peers.
AA has a Return On Invested Capital of 8.70%. This is in the better half of the industry: AA outperforms 73.89% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 8.91%, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 75.16% of the companies in the same industry.
AA's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 10.77%, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 64.97% of the companies in the same industry.
AA's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AA has a Gross Margin of 18.41%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AA outperforms 54.78% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AA is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, AA has more shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, AA has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, AA has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
AA has an Altman-Z score of 2.18. This is not the best score and indicates that AA is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
With a Altman-Z score value of 2.18, AA is not doing good in the industry: 66.88% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AA is 4.97, which is a neutral value as it means it would take AA, 4.97 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AA (4.97) is better than 68.79% of its industry peers.
AA has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.41. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.41, AA is doing worse than 70.06% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.18 |
ROIC/WACC0.86
WACC10.16%
2.3 Liquidity
AA has a Current Ratio of 1.56. This is a normal value and indicates that AA is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of AA (1.56) is worse than 70.70% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.91 indicates that AA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.91, AA is doing worse than 73.25% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 656.25% over the past year.
The earnings per share for AA have been decreasing by -48.01% on average. This is quite bad
Looking at the last year, AA shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 16.94% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 2.66% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
3.2 Future
AA is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 19.17% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, AA will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -0.55% on average per year.
EPS Next Y288.16%
EPS Next 2Y108.01%
EPS Next 3Y72.16%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue Next Year7.82%
Revenue Next 2Y6.96%
Revenue Next 3Y5.28%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 17.66, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of AA.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AA is valued cheaper than 90.45% of the companies in the same industry.
AA is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.00, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.14, AA is valued correctly.
AA's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 69.43% of the companies in the same industry.
AA's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 23.70.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.66 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.14 |
4.2 Price Multiples
87.90% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
AA's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 78.34% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 31.37 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.43 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AA's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AA's earnings are expected to grow with 72.16% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.06
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y108.01%
EPS Next 3Y72.16%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.75%, AA is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
AA's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 0.99.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.94, AA's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.75% |
5.2 History
AA has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
9.25% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AA. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP9.25%
EPS Next 2Y108.01%
EPS Next 3Y72.16%
NYSE:AA (1/9/2026, 11:35:07 AM)
62.88
+1.79 (+2.93%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners82.31%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap16.28B
Revenue(TTM)12.87B
Net Income(TTM)1.15B
Analysts78.18
Price Target45.43 (-27.75%)
Short Float %2.32%
Short Ratio0.91
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.75% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP9.25%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)56.23%
Min EPS beat(2)21.88%
Max EPS beat(2)90.58%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)36.9%
Min EPS beat(4)3.63%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)39.11%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)21.11%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)1.64%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(2)1%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.03%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.97%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-3.12%
PT rev (1m)12.77%
PT rev (3m)30%
EPS NQ rev (1m)16.56%
EPS NQ rev (3m)97.94%
EPS NY rev (1m)5.27%
EPS NY rev (3m)15.8%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.13%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)5.95%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.28%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.39%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.66 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.14 | ||
| P/S | 1.27 | ||
| P/FCF | 31.37 | ||
| P/OCF | 15.32 | ||
| P/B | 2.57 | ||
| P/tB | 2.64 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.43 |
EPS(TTM)3.56
EY5.66%
EPS(NY)4.15
Fwd EY6.61%
FCF(TTM)2
FCFY3.19%
OCF(TTM)4.1
OCFY6.53%
SpS49.69
BVpS24.5
TBVpS23.81
PEG (NY)0.06
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.3
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROCE | 11.01% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.86% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.03% | ||
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% | ||
| FCFM | 4.03% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.91%
ROICexgc growth 5Y3.19%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.93%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.18%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.81
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.29 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 87.74% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.23% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 52.99% | ||
| Profit Quality | 45.29% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.18 |
F-Score7
WACC10.16%
ROIC/WACC0.86
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
EPS Next Y288.16%
EPS Next 2Y108.01%
EPS Next 3Y72.16%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
Revenue Next Year7.82%
Revenue Next 2Y6.96%
Revenue Next 3Y5.28%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
EBIT growth 1Y377.93%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year110.8%
EBIT Next 3Y39.86%
EBIT Next 5Y9.85%
FCF growth 1Y203.18%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y9563.64%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%
ALCOA CORP / AA FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AA.
What is the valuation status of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ALCOA CORP?
ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
Can you provide the financial health for AA stock?
The financial health rating of ALCOA CORP (AA) is 3 / 10.
Can you provide the dividend sustainability for AA stock?
The dividend rating of ALCOA CORP (AA) is 4 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 9.25%.