ALCOA CORP (AA) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation
NYSE:AA • US0138721065
Current stock price
62.46 USD
-0.71 (-1.12%)
At close:
62.57 USD
+0.11 (+0.18%)
Pre-Market:
This AA fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.
1. AA Profitability Analysis
1.1 Basic Checks
- AA had positive earnings in the past year.
- AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
- The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AA reported negative net income in multiple years.
- AA had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
- With a decent Return On Assets value of 6.21%, AA is doing good in the industry, outperforming 76.07% of the companies in the same industry.
- AA's Return On Equity of 15.15% is amongst the best of the industry. AA outperforms 81.60% of its industry peers.
- AA has a better Return On Invested Capital (5.88%) than 60.12% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.21% | ||
| ROE | 15.15% | ||
| ROIC | 5.88% |
ROA(3y)1%
ROA(5y)1%
ROE(3y)1.59%
ROE(5y)2.3%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
- With a decent Profit Margin value of 8.17%, AA is doing good in the industry, outperforming 71.78% of the companies in the same industry.
- AA has a Operating Margin (7.53%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
- AA's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
- AA has a Gross Margin (15.20%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
- In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 7.53% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.17% | ||
| GM | 15.2% |
OM growth 3Y-4.94%
OM growth 5Y15.55%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.98%
GM growth 5Y3.61%
2. AA Health Analysis
2.1 Basic Checks
- With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AA is destroying value.
- The number of shares outstanding for AA has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
- AA has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
- The debt/assets ratio for AA has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
- AA has an Altman-Z score of 2.10. This is not the best score and indicates that AA is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
- Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 2.10, AA is doing worse than 69.33% of the companies in the same industry.
- AA has a debt to FCF ratio of 8.51. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as AA would need 8.51 years to pay back of all of its debts.
- AA's Debt to FCF ratio of 8.51 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 64.42% of its industry peers.
- AA has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.36. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
- With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.36, AA is not doing good in the industry: 66.26% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.36 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.51 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.1 |
ROIC/WACC0.46
WACC12.77%
2.3 Liquidity
- A Current Ratio of 1.48 indicates that AA should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
- AA has a Current ratio of 1.48. This is in the lower half of the industry: AA underperforms 71.78% of its industry peers.
- A Quick Ratio of 0.88 indicates that AA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
- AA has a worse Quick ratio (0.88) than 77.91% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.48 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 |
3. AA Growth Analysis
3.1 Past
- The earnings per share for AA have decreased strongly by -22.70% in the last year.
- Measured over the past years, AA shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -7.00% on average per year.
- The Revenue has decreased by -0.08% in the past year.
- AA shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 6.68% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-22.7%
EPS 3Y-7%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-34.88%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.08%
Revenue growth 3Y1.01%
Revenue growth 5Y6.68%
Sales Q2Q%-5.22%
3.2 Future
- AA is expected to show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will decrease by -4.16% yearly.
- AA is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 0.13% yearly.
EPS Next Y52.32%
EPS Next 2Y25.92%
EPS Next 3Y13.03%
EPS Next 5Y-4.16%
Revenue Next Year13.97%
Revenue Next 2Y6.66%
Revenue Next 3Y3.92%
Revenue Next 5Y0.13%
3.3 Evolution
- When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
- The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. AA Valuation Analysis
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 20.61, the valuation of AA can be described as rather expensive.
- Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 75.46% of the companies are valued more expensively.
- The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.54. AA is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
- Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.42, the valuation of AA can be described as reasonable.
- 77.30% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
- AA's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 21.68.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20.61 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.42 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 72.39% of the companies are valued more expensively.
- 68.10% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 57.42 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.05 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
- AA has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
- AA's earnings are expected to grow with 13.03% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.39
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y25.92%
EPS Next 3Y13.03%
5. AA Dividend Analysis
5.1 Amount
- AA has a yearly dividend return of 0.61%, which is pretty low.
- Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 0.99, AA pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.82, AA's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.61% |
5.2 History
- AA has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
- AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
- AA pays out 10.25% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP10.25%
EPS Next 2Y25.92%
EPS Next 3Y13.03%
AA Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics
62.46
-0.71 (-1.12%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Industry Strength98.14
Industry Growth97.52
Earnings (Last)04-16 2026-04-16/amc
Earnings (Next)07-14 2026-07-14/amc
Inst Owners83.85%
Inst Owner Change0.69%
Ins Owners0.39%
Ins Owner Change0.47%
Market Cap16.48B
Revenue(TTM)12.65B
Net Income(TTM)1.03B
Analysts76.52
Price Target71.71 (14.81%)
Short Float %2.28%
Short Ratio0.96
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.61% |
Yearly Dividend0.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP10.25%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date03-10 2026-03-10 (0.1)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)12.32%
Min EPS beat(2)-9%
Max EPS beat(2)33.63%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)34.27%
Min EPS beat(4)-9%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)42.48%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)30.27%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)1.36%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.85%
Min Revenue beat(2)-5.45%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.74%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.45%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.74%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.7%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.65%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.7%
PT rev (1m)12.99%
PT rev (3m)42.92%
EPS NQ rev (1m)25.37%
EPS NQ rev (3m)67.69%
EPS NY rev (1m)24.58%
EPS NY rev (3m)31.03%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)4.11%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)12.85%
Revenue NY rev (1m)2.51%
Revenue NY rev (3m)5.88%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20.61 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.42 | ||
| P/S | 1.3 | ||
| P/FCF | 57.42 | ||
| P/OCF | 17.7 | ||
| P/B | 2.41 | ||
| P/tB | 2.41 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.05 |
EPS(TTM)3.03
EY4.85%
EPS(NY)5.99
Fwd EY9.6%
FCF(TTM)1.09
FCFY1.74%
OCF(TTM)3.53
OCFY5.65%
SpS47.96
BVpS25.87
TBVpS25.87
PEG (NY)0.39
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number41.9961 (-32.76%)
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.21% | ||
| ROE | 15.15% | ||
| ROCE | 7.44% | ||
| ROIC | 5.88% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.57% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.57% | ||
| OM | 7.53% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.17% | ||
| GM | 15.2% | ||
| FCFM | 2.27% |
ROA(3y)1%
ROA(5y)1%
ROE(3y)1.59%
ROE(5y)2.3%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-5.47%
ROICexgc growth 5Y22.33%
ROICexc growth 3Y-5.04%
ROICexc growth 5Y22.7%
OM growth 3Y-4.94%
OM growth 5Y15.55%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.98%
GM growth 5Y3.61%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.76
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.36 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.51 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.54 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 101.1% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 5.09% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 58.55% | ||
| Profit Quality | 27.76% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.48 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.1 |
F-Score4
WACC12.77%
ROIC/WACC0.46
Cap/Depr(3y)91.19%
Cap/Depr(5y)82.02%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.36%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-22.7%
EPS 3Y-7%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-34.88%
EPS Next Y52.32%
EPS Next 2Y25.92%
EPS Next 3Y13.03%
EPS Next 5Y-4.16%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.08%
Revenue growth 3Y1.01%
Revenue growth 5Y6.68%
Sales Q2Q%-5.22%
Revenue Next Year13.97%
Revenue Next 2Y6.66%
Revenue Next 3Y3.92%
Revenue Next 5Y0.13%
EBIT growth 1Y-40.95%
EBIT growth 3Y-3.98%
EBIT growth 5Y23.27%
EBIT Next Year114.48%
EBIT Next 3Y28.23%
EBIT Next 5Y2.98%
FCF growth 1Y155.41%
FCF growth 3Y18.35%
FCF growth 5Y69.11%
OCF growth 1Y2903.23%
OCF growth 3Y12.97%
OCF growth 5Y24.64%
ALCOA CORP / AA Fundamental Analysis FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AA.
What is the valuation status for AA stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of AA stock?
ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
What is the financial health of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?
The financial health rating of ALCOA CORP (AA) is 3 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ALCOA CORP (AA) is expected to grow by 52.32% in the next year.