ALCOA CORP (AA) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:AA • US0138721065

64.84 USD
+3.53 (+5.76%)
Last: Mar 11, 2026, 11:09 AM
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This AA fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

Fundamental Rating

4

Overall AA gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated AA against 157 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AA while its profitability can be described as average. AA has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

6

1. AA Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • AA had positive earnings in the past year.
  • AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • In multiple years AA reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
  • In the past 5 years AA always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
AA Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAA Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1B -1B 2B

1.2 Ratios

  • AA has a Return On Assets of 7.22%. This is in the better half of the industry: AA outperforms 77.71% of its industry peers.
  • With an excellent Return On Equity value of 19.08%, AA belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 89.17% of the companies in the same industry.
  • AA's Return On Invested Capital of 7.91% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 68.15% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.22%
ROE 19.08%
ROIC 7.91%
ROA(3y)1.01%
ROA(5y)1.01%
ROE(3y)1.64%
ROE(5y)2.34%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
AA Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAA Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 -10 -20

1.3 Margins

  • Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 9.12%, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 73.89% of the companies in the same industry.
  • With a decent Operating Margin value of 9.71%, AA is doing good in the industry, outperforming 64.97% of the companies in the same industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AA has grown nicely.
  • Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 17.08%, AA is in line with its industry, outperforming 52.87% of the companies in the same industry.
  • AA's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 9.71%
PM (TTM) 9.12%
GM 17.08%
OM growth 3Y-4.45%
OM growth 5Y15.91%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.69%
GM growth 5Y3.79%
AA Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAA Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 -10 20

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3

2. AA Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AA is destroying value.
  • AA has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
  • The number of shares outstanding for AA has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
  • AA has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
AA Yearly Shares OutstandingAA Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 50M 100M 150M 200M 250M
AA Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAA Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5B 10B 15B

2.2 Solvency

  • An Altman-Z score of 2.09 indicates that AA is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • With a Altman-Z score value of 2.09, AA is not doing good in the industry: 68.79% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of AA is 4.30, which is a neutral value as it means it would take AA, 4.30 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • AA's Debt to FCF ratio of 4.30 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 71.97% of its industry peers.
  • AA has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.40. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
  • AA has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (0.40) than 66.24% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.4
Debt/FCF 4.3
Altman-Z 2.09
ROIC/WACC0.74
WACC10.67%
AA Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAA Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2B 4B 6B

2.3 Liquidity

  • AA has a Current Ratio of 1.45. This is a normal value and indicates that AA is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • AA's Current ratio of 1.45 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AA is outperformed by 72.61% of its industry peers.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.87 indicates that AA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • The Quick ratio of AA (0.87) is worse than 77.71% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.45
Quick Ratio 0.87
AA Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAA Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

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3

3. AA Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • AA shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 293.75%, which is quite impressive.
  • The Earnings Per Share has been decreasing by -7.00% on average over the past years.
  • AA shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 7.87%.
  • AA shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 6.68% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)293.75%
EPS 3Y-7%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%21.15%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.87%
Revenue growth 3Y1.01%
Revenue growth 5Y6.68%
Sales Q2Q%-1.06%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -4.67% on average over the next years.
  • AA is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -3.76% yearly.
EPS Next Y19.95%
EPS Next 2Y16.2%
EPS Next 3Y13.79%
EPS Next 5Y-4.67%
Revenue Next Year8.01%
Revenue Next 2Y4.73%
Revenue Next 3Y3.88%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.76%

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
AA Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAA Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 5B 10B 15B
AA Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAA Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 0 2 -2 4 6

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6

4. AA Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • AA is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 17.15.
  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AA is valued cheaper than 89.17% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.25. AA is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
  • AA is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.30.
  • AA's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 71.97% of the companies in the same industry.
  • AA's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 24.39.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 17.15
Fwd PE 14.3
AA Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAA Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AA is valued cheaper than 84.71% of the companies in the same industry.
  • 78.98% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 29.61
EV/EBITDA 8.95
AA Per share dataAA EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30 40

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • AA's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • The decent profitability rating of AA may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • AA's earnings are expected to grow with 13.79% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.86
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y16.2%
EPS Next 3Y13.79%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

4

5. AA Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • AA has a yearly dividend return of 0.63%, which is pretty low.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.06, AA pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.82, AA's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.63%

5.2 History

  • AA has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
AA Yearly Dividends per shareAA Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 0 0 0 0

5.3 Sustainability

  • 8.97% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AA. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP8.97%
EPS Next 2Y16.2%
EPS Next 3Y13.79%
AA Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendAA Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500M -500M 1B -1B
AA Dividend Payout.AA Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.AA Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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AA Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

ALCOA CORP

NYSE:AA (3/11/2026, 11:09:48 AM)

64.84

+3.53 (+5.76%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)01-22
Earnings (Next)04-14
Inst Owners82.31%
Inst Owner Change-13.76%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0.41%
Market Cap16.79B
Revenue(TTM)12.83B
Net Income(TTM)1.17B
Analysts75.45
Price Target63.47 (-2.11%)
Short Float %3.01%
Short Ratio1.03
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.63%
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP8.97%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)62.11%
Min EPS beat(2)33.63%
Max EPS beat(2)90.58%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)44.4%
Min EPS beat(4)21.88%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)38.74%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)21.75%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)2%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.68%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.74%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.94%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.74%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.2%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.63%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.82%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)50.86%
EPS NQ rev (1m)6.04%
EPS NQ rev (3m)65.69%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)27.42%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.29%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.58%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)3.32%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 17.15
Fwd PE 14.3
P/S 1.31
P/FCF 29.61
P/OCF 14.17
P/B 2.74
P/tB 2.74
EV/EBITDA 8.95
EPS(TTM)3.78
EY5.83%
EPS(NY)4.53
Fwd EY6.99%
FCF(TTM)2.19
FCFY3.38%
OCF(TTM)4.58
OCFY7.06%
SpS49.55
BVpS23.68
TBVpS23.68
PEG (NY)0.86
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.88
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.22%
ROE 19.08%
ROCE 10.01%
ROIC 7.91%
ROICexc 9.07%
ROICexgc 9.07%
OM 9.71%
PM (TTM) 9.12%
GM 17.08%
FCFM 4.42%
ROA(3y)1.01%
ROA(5y)1.01%
ROE(3y)1.64%
ROE(5y)2.34%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-5.41%
ROICexgc growth 5Y22.38%
ROICexc growth 3Y-4.87%
ROICexc growth 5Y22.83%
OM growth 3Y-4.45%
OM growth 5Y15.91%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.69%
GM growth 5Y3.79%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.79
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.4
Debt/FCF 4.3
Debt/EBITDA 1.3
Cap/Depr 99.2%
Cap/Sales 4.82%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 63.4%
Profit Quality 48.46%
Current Ratio 1.45
Quick Ratio 0.87
Altman-Z 2.09
F-Score7
WACC10.67%
ROIC/WACC0.74
Cap/Depr(3y)91.19%
Cap/Depr(5y)82.02%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.36%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)293.75%
EPS 3Y-7%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%21.15%
EPS Next Y19.95%
EPS Next 2Y16.2%
EPS Next 3Y13.79%
EPS Next 5Y-4.67%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.87%
Revenue growth 3Y1.01%
Revenue growth 5Y6.68%
Sales Q2Q%-1.06%
Revenue Next Year8.01%
Revenue Next 2Y4.73%
Revenue Next 3Y3.88%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.76%
EBIT growth 1Y42.08%
EBIT growth 3Y-3.49%
EBIT growth 5Y23.65%
EBIT Next Year88.52%
EBIT Next 3Y28.6%
EBIT Next 5Y2.98%
FCF growth 1Y1250%
FCF growth 3Y18.35%
FCF growth 5Y69.11%
OCF growth 1Y90.51%
OCF growth 3Y12.97%
OCF growth 5Y24.64%

ALCOA CORP / AA FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AA.


What is the valuation status of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


Can you provide the profitability details for ALCOA CORP?

ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.


Can you provide the financial health for AA stock?

The financial health rating of ALCOA CORP (AA) is 3 / 10.


Can you provide the dividend sustainability for AA stock?

The dividend rating of ALCOA CORP (AA) is 4 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 8.97%.