ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AA - US0138721065 - Common Stock
37.39 USD
-1.57 (-4.03%)
Taking everything into account, AA scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AA was compared to 155 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. While AA is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. A decent growth rate in combination with a cheap valuation! Better keep an eye on AA.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AA had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AA had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AA reported negative net income in multiple years.
In the past 5 years AA always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
AA's Return On Assets of 6.70% is amongst the best of the industry. AA outperforms 82.58% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of AA (16.37%) is better than 89.68% of its industry peers.
AA has a better Return On Invested Capital (10.81%) than 85.16% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.7% | ||
| ROE | 16.37% | ||
| ROIC | 10.81% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AA has a better Profit Margin (7.86%) than 75.48% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AA has declined.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 12.56%, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 67.74% of the companies in the same industry.
AA's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AA has a Gross Margin (20.19%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.86% | ||
| GM | 20.19% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AA has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for AA has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for AA has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
AA has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.00 indicates that AA is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
AA has a Altman-Z score of 2.00. This is in the lower half of the industry: AA underperforms 71.61% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AA is 4.57, which is a neutral value as it means it would take AA, 4.57 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
With a decent Debt to FCF ratio value of 4.57, AA is doing good in the industry, outperforming 71.61% of the companies in the same industry.
AA has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.42. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
AA's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.42 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AA is outperformed by 73.55% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.57 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2 |
ROIC/WACC1.21
WACC8.91%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.65 indicates that AA should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
AA has a worse Current ratio (1.65) than 67.74% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.97 indicates that AA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.97, AA is not doing good in the industry: 72.26% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.65 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.97 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 276.60% over the past year.
Measured over the past years, AA shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -48.01% on average per year.
The Revenue has grown by 19.39% in the past year. This is quite good.
Measured over the past years, AA shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 2.66% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)276.6%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%143.75%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)19.39%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.85%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AA will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 19.17% on average per year.
AA is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -0.55% yearly.
EPS Next Y235.21%
EPS Next 2Y68.65%
EPS Next 3Y47.12%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue Next Year6.75%
Revenue Next 2Y3.11%
Revenue Next 3Y3.04%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 9.01 indicates a reasonable valuation of AA.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AA indicates a rather cheap valuation: AA is cheaper than 98.71% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.69. AA is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
AA is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.69.
69.68% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 23.18. AA is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.01 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.69 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AA's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 95.48% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AA is valued cheaper than 89.03% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 16.63 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.05 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AA's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AA's earnings are expected to grow with 47.12% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.04
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y68.65%
EPS Next 3Y47.12%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.08%, AA has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
AA's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 2.42.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.34, AA's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.08% |
5.2 History
AA has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
10.56% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AA. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP10.56%
EPS Next 2Y68.65%
EPS Next 3Y47.12%
NYSE:AA (10/21/2025, 12:28:58 PM)
37.39
-1.57 (-4.03%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners81.04%
Inst Owner Change-0.87%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0.35%
Market Cap9.68B
Analysts78.1
Price Target35.46 (-5.16%)
Short Float %4.05%
Short Ratio1.81
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.08% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP10.56%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)26.69%
Min EPS beat(2)21.88%
Max EPS beat(2)31.49%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)38.44%
Min EPS beat(4)3.63%
Max EPS beat(4)96.74%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)26.74%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)-8.78%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)-3.36%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.2%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(2)1%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.5%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.21%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.9%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.49%
PT rev (1m)1.46%
PT rev (3m)-0.94%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-91.66%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-88.59%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-9.27%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.63%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)3.09%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.38%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.19%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.01 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.69 | ||
| P/S | 0.76 | ||
| P/FCF | 16.63 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.64 | ||
| P/B | 1.58 | ||
| P/tB | 1.63 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.05 |
EPS(TTM)4.15
EY11.1%
EPS(NY)2.73
Fwd EY7.3%
FCF(TTM)2.25
FCFY6.01%
OCF(TTM)4.33
OCFY11.58%
SpS49.35
BVpS23.7
TBVpS23.01
PEG (NY)0.04
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.7% | ||
| ROE | 16.37% | ||
| ROCE | 13.7% | ||
| ROIC | 10.81% | ||
| ROICexc | 12.42% | ||
| ROICexgc | 12.64% | ||
| OM | 12.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.86% | ||
| GM | 20.19% | ||
| FCFM | 4.56% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-23.91%
ROICexcg growth 5Y3.19%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.93%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.18%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.85
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.57 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.16 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 87.08% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.22% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 50.4% | ||
| Profit Quality | 57.97% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.65 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2 |
F-Score8
WACC8.91%
ROIC/WACC1.21
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)276.6%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%143.75%
EPS Next Y235.21%
EPS Next 2Y68.65%
EPS Next 3Y47.12%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)19.39%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.85%
Revenue Next Year6.75%
Revenue Next 2Y3.11%
Revenue Next 3Y3.04%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
EBIT growth 1Y2240%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year100.13%
EBIT Next 3Y30.43%
EBIT Next 5Y9.85%
FCF growth 1Y238.24%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y1375%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%