ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AA - US0138721065 - Common Stock
53.72 USD
+2.47 (+4.82%)
54.02 USD
+0.3 (+0.56%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to AA. AA was compared to 156 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AA while its profitability can be described as average. AA may be a bit undervalued, certainly considering the very reasonable score on growth
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AA was profitable.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years AA reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
AA has a Return On Assets of 7.18%. This is in the better half of the industry: AA outperforms 78.85% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 18.06%, AA belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 90.38% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 8.70%, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 73.72% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AA has a Profit Margin of 8.91%. This is in the better half of the industry: AA outperforms 75.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AA has declined.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 10.77%, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 64.74% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AA has declined.
AA has a Gross Margin of 18.41%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AA outperforms 53.85% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AA is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AA has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
AA has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
AA has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.06 indicates that AA is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
AA has a Altman-Z score of 2.06. This is in the lower half of the industry: AA underperforms 71.15% of its industry peers.
AA has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.97. This is a neutral value as AA would need 4.97 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a decent Debt to FCF ratio value of 4.97, AA is doing good in the industry, outperforming 67.31% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.41 indicates that AA is not too dependend on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.41, AA is not doing good in the industry: 72.44% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.06 |
ROIC/WACC0.86
WACC10.13%
2.3 Liquidity
AA has a Current Ratio of 1.56. This is a normal value and indicates that AA is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AA has a Current ratio of 1.56. This is in the lower half of the industry: AA underperforms 72.44% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.91 indicates that AA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.91, AA is doing worse than 75.64% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AA shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 656.25%, which is quite impressive.
The earnings per share for AA have been decreasing by -48.01% on average. This is quite bad
AA shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 16.94%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 2.66% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AA will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 19.17% on average per year.
AA is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -0.55% yearly.
EPS Next Y288.16%
EPS Next 2Y108.01%
EPS Next 3Y72.16%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue Next Year7.82%
Revenue Next 2Y6.96%
Revenue Next 3Y5.28%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 15.09, AA is valued correctly.
93.59% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AA to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.61), we can say AA is valued slightly cheaper.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.93, AA is valued correctly.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 75.64% of the companies are valued more expensively.
AA is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 24.01, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15.09 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.93 |
4.2 Price Multiples
89.10% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
AA's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 80.13% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 26.8 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.48 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AA's earnings are expected to grow with 72.16% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.05
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y108.01%
EPS Next 3Y72.16%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.83%, AA is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.02, AA pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.83, AA pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 1.87.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.83% |
5.2 History
AA has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
9.25% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AA. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP9.25%
EPS Next 2Y108.01%
EPS Next 3Y72.16%
53.72
+2.47 (+4.82%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners97.3%
Inst Owner Change22.92%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0.01%
Market Cap13.91B
Revenue(TTM)12.87B
Net Income(TTM)1.15B
Analysts78.18
Price Target45.43 (-15.43%)
Short Float %2.69%
Short Ratio1
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.83% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP9.25%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)56.23%
Min EPS beat(2)21.88%
Max EPS beat(2)90.58%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)36.9%
Min EPS beat(4)3.63%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)39.11%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)21.11%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)1.64%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(2)1%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.03%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.97%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-3.12%
PT rev (1m)12.53%
PT rev (3m)30%
EPS NQ rev (1m)10.46%
EPS NQ rev (3m)83.87%
EPS NY rev (1m)5.95%
EPS NY rev (3m)15.8%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.66%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)5.24%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.36%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.39%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15.09 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.93 | ||
| P/S | 1.08 | ||
| P/FCF | 26.8 | ||
| P/OCF | 13.09 | ||
| P/B | 2.19 | ||
| P/tB | 2.26 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.48 |
EPS(TTM)3.56
EY6.63%
EPS(NY)4.15
Fwd EY7.73%
FCF(TTM)2
FCFY3.73%
OCF(TTM)4.1
OCFY7.64%
SpS49.69
BVpS24.5
TBVpS23.81
PEG (NY)0.05
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.3
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROCE | 11.01% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.86% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.03% | ||
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% | ||
| FCFM | 4.03% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.91%
ROICexgc growth 5Y3.19%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.93%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.18%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.81
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.29 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 87.74% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.23% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 52.99% | ||
| Profit Quality | 45.29% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.06 |
F-Score7
WACC10.13%
ROIC/WACC0.86
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
EPS Next Y288.16%
EPS Next 2Y108.01%
EPS Next 3Y72.16%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
Revenue Next Year7.82%
Revenue Next 2Y6.96%
Revenue Next 3Y5.28%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
EBIT growth 1Y377.93%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year107.52%
EBIT Next 3Y34.64%
EBIT Next 5Y9.85%
FCF growth 1Y203.18%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y9563.64%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%
ALCOA CORP / AA FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AA.
Can you provide the valuation status for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 7 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Undervalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ALCOA CORP?
ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ALCOA CORP (AA) is 15.09 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.19.
What is the earnings growth outlook for ALCOA CORP?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ALCOA CORP (AA) is expected to grow by 288.16% in the next year.