ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AA - US0138721065 - Common Stock
37.32 USD
+0.62 (+1.69%)
37.39 USD
+0.07 (+0.19%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to AA. AA was compared to 154 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AA while its profitability can be described as average. AA is valued quite cheap, while showing a decent growth score. This is a good combination!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AA had positive earnings in the past year.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AA reported negative net income in multiple years.
In the past 5 years AA always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
AA has a Return On Assets of 7.18%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AA outperforms 81.82% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 18.06%, AA belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 91.56% of the companies in the same industry.
AA has a Return On Invested Capital of 8.70%. This is in the better half of the industry: AA outperforms 77.92% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AA has a Profit Margin of 8.91%. This is in the better half of the industry: AA outperforms 75.32% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AA has declined.
AA's Operating Margin of 10.77% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 66.88% of its industry peers.
AA's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AA has a Gross Margin of 18.41%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AA outperforms 57.14% of its industry peers.
AA's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AA has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
AA has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
AA has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for AA is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.79, we must say that AA is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of AA (1.79) is worse than 69.48% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AA is 4.97, which is a neutral value as it means it would take AA, 4.97 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
AA has a better Debt to FCF ratio (4.97) than 71.43% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.41 indicates that AA is not too dependend on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.41, AA is doing worse than 74.03% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.79 |
ROIC/WACC0.96
WACC9.08%
2.3 Liquidity
AA has a Current Ratio of 1.56. This is a normal value and indicates that AA is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.56, AA is doing worse than 70.78% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.91 indicates that AA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.91, AA is not doing good in the industry: 75.97% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 656.25% over the past year.
The earnings per share for AA have been decreasing by -48.01% on average. This is quite bad
The Revenue has grown by 16.94% in the past year. This is quite good.
AA shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 2.66% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 19.17% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -0.55% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y211.25%
EPS Next 2Y72.1%
EPS Next 3Y49.47%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue Next Year7.44%
Revenue Next 2Y3.95%
Revenue Next 3Y3.67%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 10.48, the valuation of AA can be described as very reasonable.
AA's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 98.05% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AA to the average of the S&P500 Index (25.83), we can say AA is valued rather cheaply.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.13, the valuation of AA can be described as correct.
AA's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 70.13% of the companies in the same industry.
AA's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 32.68.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.48 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.13 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AA's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 92.21% of the companies in the same industry.
AA's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 86.36% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 18.62 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.28 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AA's earnings are expected to grow with 49.47% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.05
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y72.1%
EPS Next 3Y49.47%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AA has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.09%.
AA's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 2.69.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.37, AA's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.09% |
5.2 History
AA has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
AA pays out 9.25% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP9.25%
EPS Next 2Y72.1%
EPS Next 3Y49.47%
37.32
+0.62 (+1.69%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners81.04%
Inst Owner Change-1.63%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0.35%
Market Cap9.66B
Revenue(TTM)12.87B
Net Income(TTM)1.15B
Analysts78.1
Price Target40.37 (8.17%)
Short Float %4.43%
Short Ratio1.68
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.09% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP9.25%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)56.23%
Min EPS beat(2)21.88%
Max EPS beat(2)90.58%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)36.9%
Min EPS beat(4)3.63%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)39.11%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)21.11%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)1.64%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(2)1%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.03%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.97%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-3.12%
PT rev (1m)15.53%
PT rev (3m)12.8%
EPS NQ rev (1m)62.69%
EPS NQ rev (3m)60.54%
EPS NY rev (1m)-7.15%
EPS NY rev (3m)-15.76%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)2.78%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)4.67%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.64%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.84%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.48 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.13 | ||
| P/S | 0.75 | ||
| P/FCF | 18.62 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.09 | ||
| P/B | 1.52 | ||
| P/tB | 1.52 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.28 |
EPS(TTM)3.56
EY9.54%
EPS(NY)2.84
Fwd EY7.62%
FCF(TTM)2
FCFY5.37%
OCF(TTM)4.11
OCFY11%
SpS49.7
BVpS24.51
TBVpS24.51
PEG (NY)0.05
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.31
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROCE | 11.01% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.87% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.87% | ||
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% | ||
| FCFM | 4.03% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.91%
ROICexgc growth 5Y3.19%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.93%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.18%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.81
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.29 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 87.74% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.23% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 52.99% | ||
| Profit Quality | 45.29% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.79 |
F-Score7
WACC9.08%
ROIC/WACC0.96
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
EPS Next Y211.25%
EPS Next 2Y72.1%
EPS Next 3Y49.47%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
Revenue Next Year7.44%
Revenue Next 2Y3.95%
Revenue Next 3Y3.67%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
EBIT growth 1Y377.93%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year100.13%
EBIT Next 3Y30.43%
EBIT Next 5Y9.85%
FCF growth 1Y203.18%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y9563.64%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%
ALCOA CORP / AA FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AA.
Can you provide the valuation status for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 8 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Undervalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ALCOA CORP?
ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ALCOA CORP (AA) is 10.48 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.52.
What is the earnings growth outlook for ALCOA CORP?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ALCOA CORP (AA) is expected to grow by 211.25% in the next year.