ALCOA CORP (AA)
US0138721065 - Common Stock
AA gets a fundamental rating of 2 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 155 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. Both the profitability and financial health of AA have multiple concerns. AA is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AA had negative earnings in the past year.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years AA reported 4 times negative net income.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
AA has a Return On Assets of -2.01%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AA outperforms 47.74% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Equity value of -5.56%, AA perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 40.65% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of AA (2.06%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -2.01% | ||
| ROE | -5.56% | ||
| ROIC | 2.06% |
ROA(3y)-0.86%
ROA(5y)-2.28%
ROE(3y)-2.85%
ROE(5y)-8.21%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AA has a Operating Margin (2.64%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 11.35%, AA is in line with its industry, outperforming 43.87% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 2.64% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 11.35% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-20.99%
GM growth 5Y-22.49%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AA is destroying value.
AA has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for AA has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
AA has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
AA has an Altman-Z score of 1.44. This is a bad value and indicates that AA is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
AA has a worse Altman-Z score (1.44) than 68.39% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.47 indicates that AA is not too dependend on debt financing.
AA has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (0.47) than 76.13% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.44 |
ROIC/WACC0.19
WACC10.87%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.41 indicates that AA should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
AA's Current ratio of 1.41 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AA is outperformed by 77.42% of its industry peers.
AA has a Quick Ratio of 1.41. This is a bad value and indicates that AA is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.80, AA is not doing good in the industry: 81.29% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.41 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.8 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 73.55% over the past year.
Looking at the last year, AA shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 3.63% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, AA shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -4.67% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)73.55%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%150%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.63%
Revenue growth 3Y4.35%
Revenue growth 5Y-4.67%
Sales Q2Q%11.61%
3.2 Future
AA is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 23.76% yearly.
AA is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -2.61% yearly.
EPS Next Y142.12%
EPS Next 2Y91.2%
EPS Next 3Y54.49%
EPS Next 5Y23.76%
Revenue Next Year11.12%
Revenue Next 2Y10.3%
Revenue Next 3Y6.13%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.61%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings Ratio is negative for AA. In the last year negative earnings were reported.
AA is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.16.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 72.90% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.99, AA is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.16 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AA's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.39 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
AA's earnings are expected to grow with 54.49% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y91.2%
EPS Next 3Y54.49%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AA has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.09%.
AA's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 3.22.
With a Dividend Yield of 1.09, AA pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.36.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.09% |
5.2 History
AA has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
The earnings of AA are negative and hence is the payout ratio. AA will probably not be able to sustain this dividend level.
DP-27.74%
EPS Next 2Y91.2%
EPS Next 3Y54.49%
ALCOA CORP
NYSE:AA (12/26/2024, 4:20:02 PM)
After market: 38.35 0 (0%)38.35
-0.26 (-0.67%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners63.76%
Inst Owner Change16.31%
Ins Owners0.73%
Ins Owner Change-0.07%
Market Cap9.91B
Analysts81.9
Price Target48.97 (27.69%)
Short Float %3.3%
Short Ratio1.79
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.09% |
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP-27.74%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)83.82%
Min EPS beat(2)70.91%
Max EPS beat(2)96.74%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)41.33%
Min EPS beat(4)-38.91%
Max EPS beat(4)96.74%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)13.21%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)-10.11%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)5.42%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.88%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.97%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.79%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.59%
Min Revenue beat(4)-4.97%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.79%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.93%
Revenue beat(12)1
Avg Revenue beat(12)-3.14%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.62%
PT rev (1m)1.63%
PT rev (3m)7.74%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.62%
EPS NQ rev (3m)104.14%
EPS NY rev (1m)12.69%
EPS NY rev (3m)44.83%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.36%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)15.51%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.7%
Revenue NY rev (3m)3.03%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.16 | ||
| P/S | 0.9 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 24.46 | ||
| P/B | 1.89 | ||
| P/tB | 1.95 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.39 |
EPS(TTM)-0.64
EYN/A
EPS(NY)3.78
Fwd EY9.84%
FCF(TTM)-0.75
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)1.57
OCFY4.09%
SpS42.59
BVpS20.32
TBVpS19.63
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -2.01% | ||
| ROE | -5.56% | ||
| ROCE | 2.62% | ||
| ROIC | 2.06% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.34% | ||
| ROICexgc | 2.39% | ||
| OM | 2.64% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 11.35% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)-0.86%
ROA(5y)-2.28%
ROE(3y)-2.85%
ROE(5y)-8.21%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-20.99%
GM growth 5Y-22.49%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.76
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.65 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 92.72% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 5.44% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 43.27% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.41 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.8 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.44 |
F-Score4
WACC10.87%
ROIC/WACC0.19
Cap/Depr(3y)73.52%
Cap/Depr(5y)65.55%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.03%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.91%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)73.55%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%150%
EPS Next Y142.12%
EPS Next 2Y91.2%
EPS Next 3Y54.49%
EPS Next 5Y23.76%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.63%
Revenue growth 3Y4.35%
Revenue growth 5Y-4.67%
Sales Q2Q%11.61%
Revenue Next Year11.12%
Revenue Next 2Y10.3%
Revenue Next 3Y6.13%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.61%
EBIT growth 1Y220.33%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year692.33%
EBIT Next 3Y117.01%
EBIT Next 5Y48.12%
FCF growth 1Y-124.04%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-68.09%
OCF growth 3Y-38.65%
OCF growth 5Y-27.3%