ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AA - US0138721065 - Common Stock
64.0842 USD
+1.96 (+3.16%)
Overall AA gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated AA against 156 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. While AA is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. A decent growth rate in combination with a cheap valuation! Better keep an eye on AA.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- AA had positive earnings in the past year.
- AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
- The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AA reported negative net income in multiple years.
- Each year in the past 5 years AA had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
- Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 7.18%, AA belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 80.77% of the companies in the same industry.
- With an excellent Return On Equity value of 18.06%, AA belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 91.67% of the companies in the same industry.
- AA has a better Return On Invested Capital (8.70%) than 74.36% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
- With a decent Profit Margin value of 8.91%, AA is doing good in the industry, outperforming 75.64% of the companies in the same industry.
- AA's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
- The Operating Margin of AA (10.77%) is better than 65.38% of its industry peers.
- AA's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
- Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 18.41%, AA is in line with its industry, outperforming 55.13% of the companies in the same industry.
- In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- AA has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
- The number of shares outstanding for AA has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
- AA has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
- Compared to 1 year ago, AA has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
- AA has an Altman-Z score of 2.20. This is not the best score and indicates that AA is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
- AA has a Altman-Z score of 2.20. This is in the lower half of the industry: AA underperforms 69.87% of its industry peers.
- The Debt to FCF ratio of AA is 4.97, which is a neutral value as it means it would take AA, 4.97 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
- The Debt to FCF ratio of AA (4.97) is better than 68.59% of its industry peers.
- A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.41 indicates that AA is not too dependend on debt financing.
- AA has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (0.41) than 69.23% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.2 |
ROIC/WACC0.84
WACC10.33%
2.3 Liquidity
- AA has a Current Ratio of 1.56. This is a normal value and indicates that AA is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
- Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.56, AA is doing worse than 70.51% of the companies in the same industry.
- AA has a Quick Ratio of 1.56. This is a bad value and indicates that AA is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
- The Quick ratio of AA (0.91) is worse than 73.08% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- AA shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 656.25%, which is quite impressive.
- The earnings per share for AA have been decreasing by -48.01% on average. This is quite bad
- AA shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 16.94%.
- The Revenue has been growing slightly by 2.66% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
3.2 Future
- AA is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 19.17% yearly.
- AA is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -0.55% yearly.
EPS Next Y287.28%
EPS Next 2Y113.94%
EPS Next 3Y76.63%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue Next Year7.91%
Revenue Next 2Y7.44%
Revenue Next 3Y5.7%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
3.3 Evolution
- When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
- The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- A Price/Earnings ratio of 18.00 indicates a rather expensive valuation of AA.
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AA indicates a rather cheap valuation: AA is cheaper than 91.03% of the companies listed in the same industry.
- When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AA to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.94), we can say AA is valued slightly cheaper.
- Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.58, the valuation of AA can be described as correct.
- AA's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 76.28% of the companies in the same industry.
- AA's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 23.94.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.58 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- AA's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 88.46% of the companies in the same industry.
- Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AA is valued cheaply inside the industry as 80.77% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 31.98 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.56 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
- AA's earnings are expected to grow with 76.63% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.06
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y113.94%
EPS Next 3Y76.63%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- AA has a yearly dividend return of 0.63%, which is pretty low.
- Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 0.96, AA pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
- With a Dividend Yield of 0.63, AA pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 1.83.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.63% |
5.2 History
- AA has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
- AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
- AA pays out 9.25% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP9.25%
EPS Next 2Y113.94%
EPS Next 3Y76.63%
NYSE:AA (1/21/2026, 9:36:09 AM)
64.0842
+1.96 (+3.16%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)10-22 2025-10-22/amc
Earnings (Next)01-22 2026-01-22/amc
Inst Owners82.31%
Inst Owner Change0.24%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap16.60B
Revenue(TTM)12.87B
Net Income(TTM)1.15B
Analysts78.18
Price Target50.18 (-21.7%)
Short Float %2.94%
Short Ratio1.13
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.63% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP9.25%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)56.23%
Min EPS beat(2)21.88%
Max EPS beat(2)90.58%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)36.9%
Min EPS beat(4)3.63%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)39.11%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)21.11%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)1.64%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(2)1%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.03%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.97%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-3.12%
PT rev (1m)19.27%
PT rev (3m)41.52%
EPS NQ rev (1m)6.66%
EPS NQ rev (3m)91.67%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.23%
EPS NY rev (3m)15.53%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.86%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)4.1%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.08%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.09%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.58 | ||
| P/S | 1.29 | ||
| P/FCF | 31.98 | ||
| P/OCF | 15.61 | ||
| P/B | 2.62 | ||
| P/tB | 2.69 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.56 |
EPS(TTM)3.56
EY5.56%
EPS(NY)4.39
Fwd EY6.86%
FCF(TTM)2
FCFY3.13%
OCF(TTM)4.1
OCFY6.41%
SpS49.69
BVpS24.5
TBVpS23.81
PEG (NY)0.06
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.3
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROCE | 11.01% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.86% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.03% | ||
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% | ||
| FCFM | 4.03% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.91%
ROICexgc growth 5Y3.19%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.93%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.18%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.81
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.29 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 87.74% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.23% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 52.99% | ||
| Profit Quality | 45.29% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.2 |
F-Score7
WACC10.33%
ROIC/WACC0.84
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
EPS Next Y287.28%
EPS Next 2Y113.94%
EPS Next 3Y76.63%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
Revenue Next Year7.91%
Revenue Next 2Y7.44%
Revenue Next 3Y5.7%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
EBIT growth 1Y377.93%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year110.8%
EBIT Next 3Y39.86%
EBIT Next 5Y9.85%
FCF growth 1Y203.18%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y9563.64%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%
ALCOA CORP / AA FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AA.
What is the valuation status of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 7 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Undervalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ALCOA CORP?
ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
Can you provide the financial health for AA stock?
The financial health rating of ALCOA CORP (AA) is 3 / 10.
Can you provide the dividend sustainability for AA stock?
The dividend rating of ALCOA CORP (AA) is 4 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 9.25%.