ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AA - US0138721065 - Common Stock
33.48 USD
-0.12 (-0.36%)
33.3696 USD
-0.11 (-0.33%)
Taking everything into account, AA scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AA was compared to 156 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. AA has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. AA may be a bit undervalued, certainly considering the very reasonable score on growth
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AA had positive earnings in the past year.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AA reported negative net income in multiple years.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
With an excellent Return On Assets value of 6.70%, AA belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 82.05% of the companies in the same industry.
AA has a better Return On Equity (16.37%) than 89.10% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 10.81%, AA belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 83.97% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.7% | ||
| ROE | 16.37% | ||
| ROIC | 10.81% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of AA (7.86%) is better than 75.00% of its industry peers.
AA's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With a decent Operating Margin value of 12.56%, AA is doing good in the industry, outperforming 67.31% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AA has declined.
AA's Gross Margin of 20.19% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 58.33% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.86% | ||
| GM | 20.19% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AA is still creating some value.
AA has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
AA has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for AA is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
AA has an Altman-Z score of 1.90. This is not the best score and indicates that AA is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
AA has a Altman-Z score of 1.90. This is in the lower half of the industry: AA underperforms 67.95% of its industry peers.
AA has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.57. This is a neutral value as AA would need 4.57 years to pay back of all of its debts.
AA has a Debt to FCF ratio of 4.57. This is in the better half of the industry: AA outperforms 70.51% of its industry peers.
AA has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.42. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
The Debt to Equity ratio of AA (0.42) is worse than 72.44% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.57 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.9 |
ROIC/WACC1.15
WACC9.4%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.65 indicates that AA should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of AA (1.65) is worse than 66.03% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.97 indicates that AA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AA has a Quick ratio of 0.97. This is in the lower half of the industry: AA underperforms 71.79% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.65 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.97 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AA shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 276.60%, which is quite impressive.
Measured over the past years, AA shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -48.01% on average per year.
AA shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 19.39%.
Measured over the past years, AA shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 2.66% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)276.6%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%143.75%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)19.39%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.85%
3.2 Future
AA is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 19.17% yearly.
AA is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -0.55% yearly.
EPS Next Y240.46%
EPS Next 2Y62.69%
EPS Next 3Y47.06%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue Next Year6.35%
Revenue Next 2Y2.72%
Revenue Next 3Y2.84%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
AA is valuated reasonably with a Price/Earnings ratio of 8.07.
99.36% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.20, AA is valued rather cheaply.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.18, the valuation of AA can be described as correct.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 71.15% of the companies are valued more expensively.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AA to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.71), we can say AA is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.07 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.18 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AA's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 94.87% of the companies in the same industry.
AA's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 90.38% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 14.89 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.41 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AA's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
AA's earnings are expected to grow with 47.06% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.03
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y62.69%
EPS Next 3Y47.06%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.24%, AA has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
AA's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 2.51.
With a Dividend Yield of 1.24, AA pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.38.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.24% |
5.2 History
AA has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
AA pays out 10.56% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP10.56%
EPS Next 2Y62.69%
EPS Next 3Y47.06%
33.48
-0.12 (-0.36%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners77.78%
Inst Owner Change4.11%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0.37%
Market Cap8.67B
Analysts77.14
Price Target34.95 (4.39%)
Short Float %4.44%
Short Ratio1.95
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.24% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP10.56%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)26.69%
Min EPS beat(2)21.88%
Max EPS beat(2)31.49%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)38.44%
Min EPS beat(4)3.63%
Max EPS beat(4)96.74%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)26.74%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)-8.78%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)-3.36%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.2%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(2)1%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.5%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.21%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.9%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.49%
PT rev (1m)0.29%
PT rev (3m)0.58%
EPS NQ rev (1m)7.11%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-56.54%
EPS NY rev (1m)-7.85%
EPS NY rev (3m)-9.14%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-11.49%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.87%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.07 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.18 | ||
| P/S | 0.68 | ||
| P/FCF | 14.89 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.73 | ||
| P/B | 1.41 | ||
| P/tB | 1.46 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.41 |
EPS(TTM)4.15
EY12.4%
EPS(NY)2.54
Fwd EY7.59%
FCF(TTM)2.25
FCFY6.71%
OCF(TTM)4.33
OCFY12.93%
SpS49.35
BVpS23.7
TBVpS23.01
PEG (NY)0.03
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.7% | ||
| ROE | 16.37% | ||
| ROCE | 13.7% | ||
| ROIC | 10.81% | ||
| ROICexc | 12.42% | ||
| ROICexgc | 12.64% | ||
| OM | 12.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.86% | ||
| GM | 20.19% | ||
| FCFM | 4.56% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-23.91%
ROICexcg growth 5Y3.19%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.93%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.18%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.85
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.57 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.16 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 87.08% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.22% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 50.4% | ||
| Profit Quality | 57.97% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.65 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.9 |
F-Score8
WACC9.4%
ROIC/WACC1.15
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)276.6%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%143.75%
EPS Next Y240.46%
EPS Next 2Y62.69%
EPS Next 3Y47.06%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)19.39%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.85%
Revenue Next Year6.35%
Revenue Next 2Y2.72%
Revenue Next 3Y2.84%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
EBIT growth 1Y2240%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year101.18%
EBIT Next 3Y28.26%
EBIT Next 5Y9.85%
FCF growth 1Y238.24%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y1375%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%