ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AA - US0138721065 - Common Stock
41.57 USD
+2.37 (+6.05%)
41.74 USD
+0.17 (+0.41%)
Taking everything into account, AA scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. AA was compared to 153 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AA while its profitability can be described as average. AA may be a bit undervalued, certainly considering the very reasonable score on growth
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AA had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AA had a positive cash flow from operations.
In multiple years AA reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
AA has a Return On Assets of 7.18%. This is in the better half of the industry: AA outperforms 79.74% of its industry peers.
AA's Return On Equity of 18.06% is amongst the best of the industry. AA outperforms 90.85% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of AA (8.70%) is better than 75.16% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of AA (8.91%) is better than 75.82% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AA has declined.
AA has a Operating Margin of 10.77%. This is in the better half of the industry: AA outperforms 66.67% of its industry peers.
AA's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AA's Gross Margin of 18.41% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 56.21% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AA is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, AA has more shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, AA has more shares outstanding
AA has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
AA has an Altman-Z score of 1.83. This is not the best score and indicates that AA is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
AA has a Altman-Z score of 1.83. This is in the lower half of the industry: AA underperforms 68.63% of its industry peers.
AA has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.97. This is a neutral value as AA would need 4.97 years to pay back of all of its debts.
AA has a Debt to FCF ratio of 4.97. This is in the better half of the industry: AA outperforms 69.93% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.41 indicates that AA is not too dependend on debt financing.
AA has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (0.41) than 73.86% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.83 |
ROIC/WACC0.94
WACC9.3%
2.3 Liquidity
AA has a Current Ratio of 1.56. This is a normal value and indicates that AA is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AA has a Current ratio of 1.56. This is in the lower half of the industry: AA underperforms 72.55% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.91 indicates that AA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AA has a worse Quick ratio (0.91) than 76.47% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AA shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 656.25%, which is quite impressive.
Measured over the past years, AA shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -48.01% on average per year.
The Revenue has grown by 16.94% in the past year. This is quite good.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 2.66% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, AA will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 19.17% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, AA will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -0.55% on average per year.
EPS Next Y266.36%
EPS Next 2Y84.93%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue Next Year7.44%
Revenue Next 2Y4.44%
Revenue Next 3Y4.05%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
AA is valuated reasonably with a Price/Earnings ratio of 11.68.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AA is valued cheaper than 96.73% of the companies in the same industry.
AA's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 25.98.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.66 indicates a correct valuation of AA.
AA's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 74.51% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 35.79, AA is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.68 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.66 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of AA indicates a rather cheap valuation: AA is cheaper than 92.16% of the companies listed in the same industry.
AA's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 86.93% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 20.74 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.61 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AA's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AA's earnings are expected to grow with 61.29% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.04
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y84.93%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AA has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.12%.
AA's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 2.72.
With a Dividend Yield of 1.12, AA pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.41.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.12% |
5.2 History
AA has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
AA pays out 9.25% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP9.25%
EPS Next 2Y84.93%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
41.57
+2.37 (+6.05%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners81.04%
Inst Owner Change22.91%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0.01%
Market Cap10.76B
Revenue(TTM)12.87B
Net Income(TTM)1.15B
Analysts78.18
Price Target40.29 (-3.08%)
Short Float %4.79%
Short Ratio1.73
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.12% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP9.25%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)56.23%
Min EPS beat(2)21.88%
Max EPS beat(2)90.58%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)36.9%
Min EPS beat(4)3.63%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)39.11%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)21.11%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)1.64%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(2)1%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.03%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.97%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-3.12%
PT rev (1m)13.62%
PT rev (3m)15.62%
EPS NQ rev (1m)28.96%
EPS NQ rev (3m)60.54%
EPS NY rev (1m)17.7%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.84%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.45%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)4.55%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.02%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.68 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.66 | ||
| P/S | 0.84 | ||
| P/FCF | 20.74 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.13 | ||
| P/B | 1.7 | ||
| P/tB | 1.75 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.61 |
EPS(TTM)3.56
EY8.56%
EPS(NY)3.28
Fwd EY7.9%
FCF(TTM)2
FCFY4.82%
OCF(TTM)4.1
OCFY9.87%
SpS49.69
BVpS24.5
TBVpS23.81
PEG (NY)0.04
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.3
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROCE | 11.01% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.86% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.03% | ||
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% | ||
| FCFM | 4.03% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.91%
ROICexgc growth 5Y3.19%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.93%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.18%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.81
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.29 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 87.74% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.23% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 52.99% | ||
| Profit Quality | 45.29% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.83 |
F-Score7
WACC9.3%
ROIC/WACC0.94
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
EPS Next Y266.36%
EPS Next 2Y84.93%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
Revenue Next Year7.44%
Revenue Next 2Y4.44%
Revenue Next 3Y4.05%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
EBIT growth 1Y377.93%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year100.13%
EBIT Next 3Y30.43%
EBIT Next 5Y9.85%
FCF growth 1Y203.18%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y9563.64%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%
ALCOA CORP / AA FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to AA.
Can you provide the valuation status for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 8 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Undervalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ALCOA CORP?
ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ALCOA CORP (AA) is 11.68 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.7.
What is the earnings growth outlook for ALCOA CORP?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ALCOA CORP (AA) is expected to grow by 266.36% in the next year.