ALCOA CORP (AA) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:AA • US0138721065

Current stock price

70.38 USD
-1.46 (-2.03%)
At close:
70.2899 USD
-0.09 (-0.13%)
After Hours:

This AA fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

6

1. AA Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • AA had positive earnings in the past year.
  • In the past year AA had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AA reported negative net income in multiple years.
  • In the past 5 years AA always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
AA Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAA Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1B -1B 2B

1.2 Ratios

  • AA has a better Return On Assets (7.17%) than 78.13% of its industry peers.
  • AA's Return On Equity of 18.91% is amongst the best of the industry. AA outperforms 88.75% of its industry peers.
  • The Return On Invested Capital of AA (7.86%) is better than 66.88% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.17%
ROE 18.91%
ROIC 7.86%
ROA(3y)1%
ROA(5y)1%
ROE(3y)1.59%
ROE(5y)2.3%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
AA Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAA Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 -10 -20

1.3 Margins

  • With a decent Profit Margin value of 9.02%, AA is doing good in the industry, outperforming 73.75% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Operating Margin of AA (9.56%) is better than 63.13% of its industry peers.
  • AA's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • AA has a Gross Margin of 16.94%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AA outperforms 51.25% of its industry peers.
  • AA's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 9.56%
PM (TTM) 9.02%
GM 16.94%
OM growth 3Y-4.94%
OM growth 5Y15.55%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.98%
GM growth 5Y3.61%
AA Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAA Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 -10 20

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3

2. AA Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AA is destroying value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, AA has more shares outstanding
  • The number of shares outstanding for AA has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
  • The debt/assets ratio for AA has been reduced compared to a year ago.
AA Yearly Shares OutstandingAA Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 50M 100M 150M 200M 250M
AA Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAA Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5B 10B 15B

2.2 Solvency

  • AA has an Altman-Z score of 2.28. This is not the best score and indicates that AA is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • AA has a worse Altman-Z score (2.28) than 67.50% of its industry peers.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of AA is 4.32, which is a neutral value as it means it would take AA, 4.32 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • AA's Debt to FCF ratio of 4.32 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 70.63% of its industry peers.
  • AA has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.40. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
  • The Debt to Equity ratio of AA (0.40) is worse than 68.13% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.4
Debt/FCF 4.32
Altman-Z 2.28
ROIC/WACC0.61
WACC12.82%
AA Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAA Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2B 4B 6B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 1.44 indicates that AA should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.44, AA is doing worse than 75.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.87 indicates that AA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.87, AA is doing worse than 78.75% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.44
Quick Ratio 0.87
AA Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAA Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

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3

3. AA Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • AA shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 293.75%, which is quite impressive.
  • AA shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -7.00% yearly.
  • Looking at the last year, AA shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 7.87% in the last year.
  • The Revenue has been growing slightly by 6.68% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)293.75%
EPS 3Y-7%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%21.15%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.87%
Revenue growth 3Y1.01%
Revenue growth 5Y6.68%
Sales Q2Q%-1.06%

3.2 Future

  • Based on estimates for the next years, AA will show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will decrease by -4.67% on average per year.
  • AA is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -3.76% yearly.
EPS Next Y52.32%
EPS Next 2Y25.92%
EPS Next 3Y13.03%
EPS Next 5Y-4.67%
Revenue Next Year12.15%
Revenue Next 2Y5.9%
Revenue Next 3Y3.53%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.76%

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
AA Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAA Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 5B 10B 15B
AA Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAA Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 0 2 -2 4 6

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6

4. AA Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • With a Price/Earnings ratio of 18.62, AA is valued on the expensive side.
  • AA's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 81.88% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.33. AA is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.22, the valuation of AA can be described as correct.
  • AA's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 74.38% of the companies in the same industry.
  • AA's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 38.16.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 18.62
Fwd PE 12.22
AA Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAA Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of AA indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AA is cheaper than 75.63% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 76.88% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 32.75
EV/EBITDA 10.7
AA Per share dataAA EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30 40

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • The decent profitability rating of AA may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • AA's earnings are expected to grow with 13.03% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.36
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y25.92%
EPS Next 3Y13.03%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

4

5. AA Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • With a yearly dividend of 0.55%, AA is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
  • AA's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 1.09.
  • With a Dividend Yield of 0.55, AA pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 1.82.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.55%

5.2 History

  • AA has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
  • AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years4
AA Yearly Dividends per shareAA Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 0 0 0 0

5.3 Sustainability

  • 9.08% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AA. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP9.08%
EPS Next 2Y25.92%
EPS Next 3Y13.03%
AA Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendAA Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500M -500M 1B -1B
AA Dividend Payout.AA Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.AA Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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AA Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

ALCOA CORP

NYSE:AA (4/15/2026, 4:48:01 PM)

After market: 70.2899 -0.09 (-0.13%)

70.38

-1.46 (-2.03%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)01-22
Earnings (Next)04-16
Inst Owners83.85%
Inst Owner Change0.02%
Ins Owners0.39%
Ins Owner Change0.41%
Market Cap18.57B
Revenue(TTM)12.83B
Net Income(TTM)1.16B
Analysts76.52
Price Target68.82 (-2.22%)
Short Float %2.64%
Short Ratio1.01
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.55%
Yearly Dividend0.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP9.08%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date03-10
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)62.11%
Min EPS beat(2)33.63%
Max EPS beat(2)90.58%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)44.4%
Min EPS beat(4)21.88%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)38.74%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)21.75%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)2%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.68%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.74%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.94%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.74%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.2%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.63%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.82%
PT rev (1m)8.43%
PT rev (3m)51.49%
EPS NQ rev (1m)23.49%
EPS NQ rev (3m)42.07%
EPS NY rev (1m)26.98%
EPS NY rev (3m)38.62%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.29%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.12%
Revenue NY rev (1m)3.83%
Revenue NY rev (3m)5.69%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 18.62
Fwd PE 12.22
P/S 1.45
P/FCF 32.75
P/OCF 15.67
P/B 3.04
P/tB 3.05
EV/EBITDA 10.7
EPS(TTM)3.78
EY5.37%
EPS(NY)5.76
Fwd EY8.18%
FCF(TTM)2.15
FCFY3.05%
OCF(TTM)4.49
OCFY6.38%
SpS48.63
BVpS23.19
TBVpS23.06
PEG (NY)0.36
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.4074 (-36.9%)
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.17%
ROE 18.91%
ROCE 9.95%
ROIC 7.86%
ROICexc 9.03%
ROICexgc 9.05%
OM 9.56%
PM (TTM) 9.02%
GM 16.94%
FCFM 4.42%
ROA(3y)1%
ROA(5y)1%
ROE(3y)1.59%
ROE(5y)2.3%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-5.47%
ROICexgc growth 5Y22.33%
ROICexc growth 3Y-5.04%
ROICexc growth 5Y22.7%
OM growth 3Y-4.94%
OM growth 5Y15.55%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.98%
GM growth 5Y3.61%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.8
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.4
Debt/FCF 4.32
Debt/EBITDA 1.32
Cap/Depr 99.2%
Cap/Sales 4.82%
Interest Coverage 9.59
Cash Conversion 64.05%
Profit Quality 49.01%
Current Ratio 1.44
Quick Ratio 0.87
Altman-Z 2.28
F-Score6
WACC12.82%
ROIC/WACC0.61
Cap/Depr(3y)91.19%
Cap/Depr(5y)82.02%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.36%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)293.75%
EPS 3Y-7%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%21.15%
EPS Next Y52.32%
EPS Next 2Y25.92%
EPS Next 3Y13.03%
EPS Next 5Y-4.67%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.87%
Revenue growth 3Y1.01%
Revenue growth 5Y6.68%
Sales Q2Q%-1.06%
Revenue Next Year12.15%
Revenue Next 2Y5.9%
Revenue Next 3Y3.53%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.76%
EBIT growth 1Y39.91%
EBIT growth 3Y-3.98%
EBIT growth 5Y23.27%
EBIT Next Year114.48%
EBIT Next 3Y28.23%
EBIT Next 5Y2.98%
FCF growth 1Y1250%
FCF growth 3Y18.35%
FCF growth 5Y69.11%
OCF growth 1Y90.51%
OCF growth 3Y12.97%
OCF growth 5Y24.64%

ALCOA CORP / AA Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AA.


What is the valuation status for AA stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


What is the profitability of AA stock?

ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.


What is the financial health of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?

The financial health rating of ALCOA CORP (AA) is 3 / 10.


What is the expected EPS growth for ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ALCOA CORP (AA) is expected to grow by 52.32% in the next year.