ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AA - US0138721065 - Common Stock
37.78 USD
-0.41 (-1.07%)
Overall AA gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. We evaluated AA against 154 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. While AA is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. A decent growth rate in combination with a cheap valuation! Better keep an eye on AA.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AA had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AA had a positive cash flow from operations.
In multiple years AA reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years AA had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 7.18%, AA belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 80.52% of the companies in the same industry.
AA has a better Return On Equity (18.06%) than 92.21% of its industry peers.
AA's Return On Invested Capital of 8.70% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 76.62% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AA's Profit Margin of 8.91% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 75.97% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AA has declined.
AA's Operating Margin of 10.77% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 66.88% of its industry peers.
AA's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AA has a Gross Margin (18.41%) which is in line with its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AA has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, AA has more shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for AA has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
AA has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
AA has an Altman-Z score of 1.81. This is not the best score and indicates that AA is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of AA (1.81) is worse than 68.83% of its industry peers.
AA has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.97. This is a neutral value as AA would need 4.97 years to pay back of all of its debts.
AA has a better Debt to FCF ratio (4.97) than 72.08% of its industry peers.
AA has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.41. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.41, AA is doing worse than 74.03% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.81 |
ROIC/WACC0.97
WACC8.94%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.56 indicates that AA should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.56, AA is not doing good in the industry: 71.43% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
AA has a Quick Ratio of 1.56. This is a bad value and indicates that AA is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.91, AA is not doing good in the industry: 77.27% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 656.25% over the past year.
AA shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -48.01% yearly.
Looking at the last year, AA shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 16.94% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 2.66% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 19.17% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -0.55% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y266.36%
EPS Next 2Y84.93%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue Next Year7.44%
Revenue Next 2Y4.44%
Revenue Next 3Y4.05%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 10.61, the valuation of AA can be described as reasonable.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AA is valued cheaply inside the industry as 97.40% of the companies are valued more expensively.
AA is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 25.91, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.51, the valuation of AA can be described as reasonable.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 75.32% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 34.57, AA is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.61 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.51 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AA's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 93.51% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AA is valued cheaper than 87.66% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 18.85 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.47 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AA's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AA's earnings are expected to grow with 61.29% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.04
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y84.93%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.09%, AA has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
AA's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 2.63.
With a Dividend Yield of 1.09, AA pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.36.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.09% |
5.2 History
AA has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
AA pays out 9.25% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP9.25%
EPS Next 2Y84.93%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
NYSE:AA (11/14/2025, 1:15:09 PM)
37.78
-0.41 (-1.07%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners81.04%
Inst Owner Change-1.96%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0.35%
Market Cap9.78B
Revenue(TTM)12.87B
Net Income(TTM)1.15B
Analysts78.18
Price Target40.37 (6.86%)
Short Float %4.43%
Short Ratio1.68
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.09% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP9.25%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)56.23%
Min EPS beat(2)21.88%
Max EPS beat(2)90.58%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)36.9%
Min EPS beat(4)3.63%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)39.11%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)21.11%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)1.64%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(2)1%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.03%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.97%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-3.12%
PT rev (1m)13.86%
PT rev (3m)12.8%
EPS NQ rev (1m)62.69%
EPS NQ rev (3m)60.54%
EPS NY rev (1m)9.29%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.84%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)3.42%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)5.46%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.64%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.02%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.61 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.51 | ||
| P/S | 0.76 | ||
| P/FCF | 18.85 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.2 | ||
| P/B | 1.54 | ||
| P/tB | 1.59 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.47 |
EPS(TTM)3.56
EY9.42%
EPS(NY)3.28
Fwd EY8.69%
FCF(TTM)2
FCFY5.31%
OCF(TTM)4.11
OCFY10.87%
SpS49.7
BVpS24.51
TBVpS23.82
PEG (NY)0.04
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.31
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROCE | 11.01% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.86% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.03% | ||
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% | ||
| FCFM | 4.03% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.91%
ROICexgc growth 5Y3.19%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.93%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.18%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.81
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.29 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 87.74% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.23% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 52.99% | ||
| Profit Quality | 45.29% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.81 |
F-Score7
WACC8.94%
ROIC/WACC0.97
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
EPS Next Y266.36%
EPS Next 2Y84.93%
EPS Next 3Y61.29%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
Revenue Next Year7.44%
Revenue Next 2Y4.44%
Revenue Next 3Y4.05%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
EBIT growth 1Y377.93%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year100.13%
EBIT Next 3Y30.43%
EBIT Next 5Y9.85%
FCF growth 1Y203.18%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y9563.64%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%
ALCOA CORP / AA FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to AA.
Can you provide the valuation status for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 8 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Undervalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ALCOA CORP?
ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ALCOA CORP (AA) is 10.61 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.54.
What is the earnings growth outlook for ALCOA CORP?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ALCOA CORP (AA) is expected to grow by 266.36% in the next year.