ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AA - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US0138721065 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall AA gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. We evaluated AA against 155 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AA while its profitability can be described as average. AA is valued quite cheap, while showing a decent growth score. This is a good combination!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AA had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AA had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AA reported negative net income in multiple years.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
With a decent Return On Assets value of 5.90%, AA is doing good in the industry, outperforming 78.71% of the companies in the same industry.
AA has a better Return On Equity (14.79%) than 86.45% of its industry peers.
AA has a better Return On Invested Capital (11.01%) than 87.74% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.9% | ||
| ROE | 14.79% | ||
| ROIC | 11.01% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AA has a Profit Margin of 6.79%. This is in the better half of the industry: AA outperforms 73.55% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AA has declined.
The Operating Margin of AA (12.74%) is better than 67.74% of its industry peers.
AA's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
AA has a Gross Margin (20.43%) which is in line with its industry peers.
AA's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.74% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.79% | ||
| GM | 20.43% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AA has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
AA has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
AA has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, AA has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
AA has an Altman-Z score of 1.86. This is not the best score and indicates that AA is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
AA has a Altman-Z score of 1.86. This is in the lower half of the industry: AA underperforms 61.94% of its industry peers.
AA has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.74. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as AA would need 7.74 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a decent Debt to FCF ratio value of 7.74, AA is doing good in the industry, outperforming 65.16% of the companies in the same industry.
AA has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.45. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
The Debt to Equity ratio of AA (0.45) is worse than 74.84% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.45 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.74 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.86 |
ROIC/WACC1.14
WACC9.62%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.71 indicates that AA should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.71, AA is doing worse than 65.16% of the companies in the same industry.
AA has a Quick Ratio of 1.71. This is a bad value and indicates that AA is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 1.00, AA is not doing good in the industry: 67.10% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.71 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AA shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 237.06%, which is quite impressive.
AA shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -48.01% yearly.
AA shows a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 20.85%.
Measured over the past years, AA shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 2.66% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)237.06%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%365.43%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)20.85%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%29.63%
3.2 Future
AA is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 19.06% yearly.
AA is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -0.91% yearly.
EPS Next Y274.73%
EPS Next 2Y73.97%
EPS Next 3Y58.47%
EPS Next 5Y19.06%
Revenue Next Year5.43%
Revenue Next 2Y2.12%
Revenue Next 3Y2.73%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.91%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 7.60, the valuation of AA can be described as very cheap.
98.06% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
AA is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.29, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.26 indicates a reasonable valuation of AA.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 76.77% of the companies are valued more expensively.
AA's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 21.74.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.6 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.26 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AA's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 94.19% of the companies in the same industry.
AA's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 80.65% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 22.18 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.09 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AA's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AA's earnings are expected to grow with 58.47% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.03
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y73.97%
EPS Next 3Y58.47%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AA has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.28%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
AA's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 2.90.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.37, AA's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.28% |
5.2 History
AA has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
11.28% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AA. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP11.28%
EPS Next 2Y73.97%
EPS Next 3Y58.47%
29.81
-1.34 (-4.3%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners77.65%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change1.53%
Market Cap7.72B
Analysts79
Price Target34.74 (16.54%)
Short Float %5.61%
Short Ratio2.24
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.28% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP11.28%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)17.56%
Min EPS beat(2)3.63%
Max EPS beat(2)31.49%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)50.69%
Min EPS beat(4)3.63%
Max EPS beat(4)96.74%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)28.27%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)-9.6%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)-4.38%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.01%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.37%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.95%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.75%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.78%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.29%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-29.19%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-40.71%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-51.99%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-12.48%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-1.51%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-14.71%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-6.17%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.6 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.26 | ||
| P/S | 0.61 | ||
| P/FCF | 22.18 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.39 | ||
| P/B | 1.33 | ||
| P/tB | 1.37 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.09 |
EPS(TTM)3.92
EY13.15%
EPS(NY)2.91
Fwd EY9.75%
FCF(TTM)1.34
FCFY4.51%
OCF(TTM)3.55
OCFY11.92%
SpS48.92
BVpS22.46
TBVpS21.77
PEG (NY)0.03
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.9% | ||
| ROE | 14.79% | ||
| ROCE | 13.99% | ||
| ROIC | 11.01% | ||
| ROICexc | 12.29% | ||
| ROICexgc | 12.5% | ||
| OM | 12.74% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.79% | ||
| GM | 20.43% | ||
| FCFM | 2.75% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-23.91%
ROICexcg growth 5Y3.19%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.93%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.18%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.87
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.45 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.74 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.17 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 90.94% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.52% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 41.02% | ||
| Profit Quality | 40.47% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.71 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.86 |
F-Score7
WACC9.62%
ROIC/WACC1.14
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)237.06%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%365.43%
EPS Next Y274.73%
EPS Next 2Y73.97%
EPS Next 3Y58.47%
EPS Next 5Y19.06%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)20.85%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%29.63%
Revenue Next Year5.43%
Revenue Next 2Y2.12%
Revenue Next 3Y2.73%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.91%
EBIT growth 1Y758.78%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year109.42%
EBIT Next 3Y34.7%
EBIT Next 5Y9.85%
FCF growth 1Y155.88%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y47.2%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%