ALCOA CORP (AA) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:AA • US0138721065

Current stock price

65.41 USD
-0.01 (-0.02%)
Last:

This AA fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

6

1. AA Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year AA was profitable.
  • AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AA reported negative net income in multiple years.
  • Each year in the past 5 years AA had a positive operating cash flow.
AA Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAA Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1B -1B 2B

1.2 Ratios

  • AA has a better Return On Assets (7.22%) than 77.07% of its industry peers.
  • Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 19.08%, AA belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 89.17% of the companies in the same industry.
  • With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 7.91%, AA is doing good in the industry, outperforming 67.52% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.22%
ROE 19.08%
ROIC 7.91%
ROA(3y)1.01%
ROA(5y)1.01%
ROE(3y)1.64%
ROE(5y)2.34%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
AA Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAA Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 -10 -20

1.3 Margins

  • AA's Profit Margin of 9.12% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 73.25% of its industry peers.
  • AA has a Operating Margin of 9.71%. This is in the better half of the industry: AA outperforms 64.97% of its industry peers.
  • AA's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • The Gross Margin of AA (17.08%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • AA's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 9.71%
PM (TTM) 9.12%
GM 17.08%
OM growth 3Y-4.45%
OM growth 5Y15.91%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.69%
GM growth 5Y3.79%
AA Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAA Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 -10 20

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3

2. AA Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AA is destroying value.
  • AA has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
  • Compared to 5 years ago, AA has more shares outstanding
  • Compared to 1 year ago, AA has an improved debt to assets ratio.
AA Yearly Shares OutstandingAA Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 50M 100M 150M 200M 250M
AA Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAA Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5B 10B 15B

2.2 Solvency

  • AA has an Altman-Z score of 2.16. This is not the best score and indicates that AA is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • With a Altman-Z score value of 2.16, AA is not doing good in the industry: 65.61% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
  • AA has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.30. This is a neutral value as AA would need 4.30 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 4.30, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 71.97% of the companies in the same industry.
  • AA has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.40. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
  • The Debt to Equity ratio of AA (0.40) is worse than 65.61% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.4
Debt/FCF 4.3
Altman-Z 2.16
ROIC/WACC0.68
WACC11.55%
AA Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAA Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2B 4B 6B

2.3 Liquidity

  • AA has a Current Ratio of 1.45. This is a normal value and indicates that AA is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.45, AA is doing worse than 71.97% of the companies in the same industry.
  • AA has a Quick Ratio of 1.45. This is a bad value and indicates that AA is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • AA has a Quick ratio of 0.87. This is in the lower half of the industry: AA underperforms 77.07% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.45
Quick Ratio 0.87
AA Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAA Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

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3

3. AA Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • AA shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 293.75%, which is quite impressive.
  • The Earnings Per Share has been decreasing by -7.00% on average over the past years.
  • AA shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 7.87%.
  • Measured over the past years, AA shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 6.68% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)293.75%
EPS 3Y-7%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%21.15%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.87%
Revenue growth 3Y1.01%
Revenue growth 5Y6.68%
Sales Q2Q%-1.06%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -4.67% on average over the next years.
  • AA is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -3.76% yearly.
EPS Next Y19.95%
EPS Next 2Y16.2%
EPS Next 3Y13.79%
EPS Next 5Y-4.67%
Revenue Next Year8.01%
Revenue Next 2Y4.73%
Revenue Next 3Y3.88%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.76%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
AA Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAA Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 5B 10B 15B
AA Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAA Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 0 2 -2 4 6

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6

4. AA Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 17.30, the valuation of AA can be described as rather expensive.
  • AA's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 81.53% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.11. AA is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.43, the valuation of AA can be described as correct.
  • 69.43% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AA, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 24.12. AA is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 17.3
Fwd PE 14.43
AA Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAA Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • AA's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 78.98% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than 77.71% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 29.87
EV/EBITDA 9.51
AA Per share dataAA EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30 40

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • The decent profitability rating of AA may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • A more expensive valuation may be justified as AA's earnings are expected to grow with 13.79% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.87
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y16.2%
EPS Next 3Y13.79%

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4

5. AA Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • With a yearly dividend of 0.63%, AA is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.08, AA pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
  • With a Dividend Yield of 0.63, AA pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 1.91.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.63%

5.2 History

  • AA has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
AA Yearly Dividends per shareAA Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 0 0 0 0

5.3 Sustainability

  • 8.97% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AA. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP8.97%
EPS Next 2Y16.2%
EPS Next 3Y13.79%
AA Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendAA Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500M -500M 1B -1B
AA Dividend Payout.AA Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.AA Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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AA Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

ALCOA CORP

NYSE:AA (3/18/2026, 2:27:07 PM)

65.41

-0.01 (-0.02%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)01-22
Earnings (Next)04-14
Inst Owners82.31%
Inst Owner Change-13.76%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0.41%
Market Cap16.94B
Revenue(TTM)12.83B
Net Income(TTM)1.17B
Analysts75.45
Price Target63.47 (-2.97%)
Short Float %2.79%
Short Ratio0.9
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.63%
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP8.97%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)62.11%
Min EPS beat(2)33.63%
Max EPS beat(2)90.58%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)44.4%
Min EPS beat(4)21.88%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)38.74%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)21.75%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)2%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.68%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.74%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.94%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.74%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.2%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.63%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.82%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)50.86%
EPS NQ rev (1m)5.36%
EPS NQ rev (3m)65.69%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)27.42%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.65%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.58%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)3.32%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 17.3
Fwd PE 14.43
P/S 1.32
P/FCF 29.87
P/OCF 14.29
P/B 2.76
P/tB 2.76
EV/EBITDA 9.51
EPS(TTM)3.78
EY5.78%
EPS(NY)4.53
Fwd EY6.93%
FCF(TTM)2.19
FCFY3.35%
OCF(TTM)4.58
OCFY7%
SpS49.55
BVpS23.68
TBVpS23.68
PEG (NY)0.87
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.88
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.22%
ROE 19.08%
ROCE 10.01%
ROIC 7.91%
ROICexc 9.07%
ROICexgc 9.07%
OM 9.71%
PM (TTM) 9.12%
GM 17.08%
FCFM 4.42%
ROA(3y)1.01%
ROA(5y)1.01%
ROE(3y)1.64%
ROE(5y)2.34%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-5.41%
ROICexgc growth 5Y22.38%
ROICexc growth 3Y-4.87%
ROICexc growth 5Y22.83%
OM growth 3Y-4.45%
OM growth 5Y15.91%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.69%
GM growth 5Y3.79%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.79
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.4
Debt/FCF 4.3
Debt/EBITDA 1.3
Cap/Depr 99.2%
Cap/Sales 4.82%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 63.4%
Profit Quality 48.46%
Current Ratio 1.45
Quick Ratio 0.87
Altman-Z 2.16
F-Score7
WACC11.55%
ROIC/WACC0.68
Cap/Depr(3y)91.19%
Cap/Depr(5y)82.02%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.36%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)293.75%
EPS 3Y-7%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%21.15%
EPS Next Y19.95%
EPS Next 2Y16.2%
EPS Next 3Y13.79%
EPS Next 5Y-4.67%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.87%
Revenue growth 3Y1.01%
Revenue growth 5Y6.68%
Sales Q2Q%-1.06%
Revenue Next Year8.01%
Revenue Next 2Y4.73%
Revenue Next 3Y3.88%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.76%
EBIT growth 1Y42.08%
EBIT growth 3Y-3.49%
EBIT growth 5Y23.65%
EBIT Next Year88.52%
EBIT Next 3Y28.6%
EBIT Next 5Y2.98%
FCF growth 1Y1250%
FCF growth 3Y18.35%
FCF growth 5Y69.11%
OCF growth 1Y90.51%
OCF growth 3Y12.97%
OCF growth 5Y24.64%

ALCOA CORP / AA Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AA.


What is the valuation status of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


Can you provide the profitability details for ALCOA CORP?

ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.


Can you provide the financial health for AA stock?

The financial health rating of ALCOA CORP (AA) is 3 / 10.


Can you provide the dividend sustainability for AA stock?

The dividend rating of ALCOA CORP (AA) is 4 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 8.97%.