ALCOA CORP (AA) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:AA • US0138721065

Current stock price

58.755 USD
+2.08 (+3.66%)
Last:

This AA fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

6

1. AA Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year AA was profitable.
  • AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • In multiple years AA reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
  • In the past 5 years AA always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
AA Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAA Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1B -1B 2B

1.2 Ratios

  • Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 7.17%, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 77.36% of the companies in the same industry.
  • AA's Return On Equity of 18.91% is amongst the best of the industry. AA outperforms 88.68% of its industry peers.
  • AA has a better Return On Invested Capital (7.86%) than 66.67% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.17%
ROE 18.91%
ROIC 7.86%
ROA(3y)1%
ROA(5y)1%
ROE(3y)1.59%
ROE(5y)2.3%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
AA Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAA Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 -10 -20

1.3 Margins

  • Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 9.02%, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 72.96% of the companies in the same industry.
  • AA's Operating Margin of 9.56% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 64.78% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AA has grown nicely.
  • AA's Gross Margin of 16.94% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 52.83% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 9.56%
PM (TTM) 9.02%
GM 16.94%
OM growth 3Y-4.94%
OM growth 5Y15.55%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.98%
GM growth 5Y3.61%
AA Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAA Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 -10 20

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3

2. AA Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AA is destroying value.
  • AA has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
  • AA has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
  • The debt/assets ratio for AA has been reduced compared to a year ago.
AA Yearly Shares OutstandingAA Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 50M 100M 150M 200M 250M
AA Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAA Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5B 10B 15B

2.2 Solvency

  • AA has an Altman-Z score of 2.04. This is not the best score and indicates that AA is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • The Altman-Z score of AA (2.04) is worse than 66.67% of its industry peers.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of AA is 4.32, which is a neutral value as it means it would take AA, 4.32 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 4.32, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 72.33% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.40 indicates that AA is not too dependend on debt financing.
  • Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.40, AA is doing worse than 66.04% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.4
Debt/FCF 4.32
Altman-Z 2.04
ROIC/WACC0.65
WACC12.1%
AA Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAA Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2B 4B 6B

2.3 Liquidity

  • AA has a Current Ratio of 1.44. This is a normal value and indicates that AA is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • AA's Current ratio of 1.44 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AA is outperformed by 71.70% of its industry peers.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.87 indicates that AA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • AA's Quick ratio of 0.87 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AA is outperformed by 76.10% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.44
Quick Ratio 0.87
AA Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAA Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

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3

3. AA Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 293.75% over the past year.
  • Measured over the past years, AA shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -7.00% on average per year.
  • Looking at the last year, AA shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 7.87% in the last year.
  • Measured over the past years, AA shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 6.68% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)293.75%
EPS 3Y-7%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%21.15%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.87%
Revenue growth 3Y1.01%
Revenue growth 5Y6.68%
Sales Q2Q%-1.06%

3.2 Future

  • Based on estimates for the next years, AA will show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will decrease by -4.67% on average per year.
  • The Revenue is expected to decrease by -3.76% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y22.27%
EPS Next 2Y19%
EPS Next 3Y15.04%
EPS Next 5Y-4.67%
Revenue Next Year11.17%
Revenue Next 2Y5.52%
Revenue Next 3Y3.68%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.76%

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
AA Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAA Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 5B 10B 15B
AA Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAA Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 0 2 -2 4 6

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6

4. AA Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • With a Price/Earnings ratio of 15.54, AA is valued correctly.
  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AA is valued cheaply inside the industry as 84.28% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • AA is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 25.50, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.71, the valuation of AA can be described as correct.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AA indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AA is cheaper than 71.70% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.67, AA is valued a bit cheaper.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 15.54
Fwd PE 12.71
AA Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAA Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 79.87% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of AA indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AA is cheaper than 78.62% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 27.34
EV/EBITDA 8.54
AA Per share dataAA EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30 40

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • AA's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • AA has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • AA's earnings are expected to grow with 15.04% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.7
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y19%
EPS Next 3Y15.04%

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4

5. AA Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • AA has a yearly dividend return of 0.68%, which is pretty low.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.14, AA pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.89, AA's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.68%

5.2 History

  • AA has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
AA Yearly Dividends per shareAA Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 0 0 0 0

5.3 Sustainability

  • 9.08% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AA. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP9.08%
EPS Next 2Y19%
EPS Next 3Y15.04%
AA Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendAA Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500M -500M 1B -1B
AA Dividend Payout.AA Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.AA Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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AA Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

ALCOA CORP

NYSE:AA (3/25/2026, 1:26:00 PM)

58.755

+2.08 (+3.66%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)01-22
Earnings (Next)04-16
Inst Owners84.1%
Inst Owner Change-13.76%
Ins Owners0.39%
Ins Owner Change0.41%
Market Cap15.50B
Revenue(TTM)12.83B
Net Income(TTM)1.16B
Analysts75.45
Price Target63.47 (8.02%)
Short Float %2.79%
Short Ratio0.9
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.68%
Yearly Dividend0.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP9.08%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date03-10
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)62.11%
Min EPS beat(2)33.63%
Max EPS beat(2)90.58%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)44.4%
Min EPS beat(4)21.88%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)38.74%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)21.75%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)2%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.68%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.74%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.94%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.74%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.2%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.63%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.82%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)39.71%
EPS NQ rev (1m)25.16%
EPS NQ rev (3m)63.9%
EPS NY rev (1m)1.93%
EPS NY rev (3m)11.27%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)3.67%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)4.41%
Revenue NY rev (1m)2.93%
Revenue NY rev (3m)4.78%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 15.54
Fwd PE 12.71
P/S 1.21
P/FCF 27.34
P/OCF 13.08
P/B 2.53
P/tB 2.55
EV/EBITDA 8.54
EPS(TTM)3.78
EY6.43%
EPS(NY)4.62
Fwd EY7.87%
FCF(TTM)2.15
FCFY3.66%
OCF(TTM)4.49
OCFY7.64%
SpS48.63
BVpS23.19
TBVpS23.06
PEG (NY)0.7
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.41
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.17%
ROE 18.91%
ROCE 9.95%
ROIC 7.86%
ROICexc 9.03%
ROICexgc 9.05%
OM 9.56%
PM (TTM) 9.02%
GM 16.94%
FCFM 4.42%
ROA(3y)1%
ROA(5y)1%
ROE(3y)1.59%
ROE(5y)2.3%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-5.47%
ROICexgc growth 5Y22.33%
ROICexc growth 3Y-5.04%
ROICexc growth 5Y22.7%
OM growth 3Y-4.94%
OM growth 5Y15.55%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.98%
GM growth 5Y3.61%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.8
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.4
Debt/FCF 4.32
Debt/EBITDA 1.32
Cap/Depr 99.2%
Cap/Sales 4.82%
Interest Coverage 9.59
Cash Conversion 64.05%
Profit Quality 49.01%
Current Ratio 1.44
Quick Ratio 0.87
Altman-Z 2.04
F-Score6
WACC12.1%
ROIC/WACC0.65
Cap/Depr(3y)91.19%
Cap/Depr(5y)82.02%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.36%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)293.75%
EPS 3Y-7%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%21.15%
EPS Next Y22.27%
EPS Next 2Y19%
EPS Next 3Y15.04%
EPS Next 5Y-4.67%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.87%
Revenue growth 3Y1.01%
Revenue growth 5Y6.68%
Sales Q2Q%-1.06%
Revenue Next Year11.17%
Revenue Next 2Y5.52%
Revenue Next 3Y3.68%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.76%
EBIT growth 1Y39.91%
EBIT growth 3Y-3.98%
EBIT growth 5Y23.27%
EBIT Next Year88.81%
EBIT Next 3Y28.6%
EBIT Next 5Y2.98%
FCF growth 1Y1250%
FCF growth 3Y18.35%
FCF growth 5Y69.11%
OCF growth 1Y90.51%
OCF growth 3Y12.97%
OCF growth 5Y24.64%

ALCOA CORP / AA Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AA.


What is the valuation status of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


Can you provide the profitability details for ALCOA CORP?

ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.


Can you provide the financial health for AA stock?

The financial health rating of ALCOA CORP (AA) is 3 / 10.


Can you provide the dividend sustainability for AA stock?

The dividend rating of ALCOA CORP (AA) is 4 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 9.08%.