ALCOA CORP (AA) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:AA • US0138721065

Current stock price

70.38 USD
-1.46 (-2.03%)
At close:
70.5 USD
+0.12 (+0.17%)
After Hours:

This AA fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

6

1. AA Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year AA was profitable.
  • AA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • In multiple years AA reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
  • AA had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
AA Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAA Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1B -1B 2B

1.2 Ratios

  • AA has a better Return On Assets (7.17%) than 78.13% of its industry peers.
  • AA has a Return On Equity of 18.91%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AA outperforms 88.75% of its industry peers.
  • Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 7.86%, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 66.88% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.17%
ROE 18.91%
ROIC 7.86%
ROA(3y)1%
ROA(5y)1%
ROE(3y)1.59%
ROE(5y)2.3%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
AA Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAA Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 -10 -20

1.3 Margins

  • AA's Profit Margin of 9.02% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 73.75% of its industry peers.
  • The Operating Margin of AA (9.56%) is better than 63.13% of its industry peers.
  • AA's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • The Gross Margin of AA (16.94%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 9.56%
PM (TTM) 9.02%
GM 16.94%
OM growth 3Y-4.94%
OM growth 5Y15.55%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.98%
GM growth 5Y3.61%
AA Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAA Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 -10 20

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3

2. AA Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • AA has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, AA has more shares outstanding
  • AA has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, AA has an improved debt to assets ratio.
AA Yearly Shares OutstandingAA Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 50M 100M 150M 200M 250M
AA Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAA Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5B 10B 15B

2.2 Solvency

  • An Altman-Z score of 2.28 indicates that AA is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • AA has a Altman-Z score of 2.28. This is in the lower half of the industry: AA underperforms 67.50% of its industry peers.
  • AA has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.32. This is a neutral value as AA would need 4.32 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • AA has a Debt to FCF ratio of 4.32. This is in the better half of the industry: AA outperforms 70.63% of its industry peers.
  • AA has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.40. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
  • Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.40, AA is doing worse than 68.13% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.4
Debt/FCF 4.32
Altman-Z 2.28
ROIC/WACC0.61
WACC12.82%
AA Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAA Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2B 4B 6B

2.3 Liquidity

  • AA has a Current Ratio of 1.44. This is a normal value and indicates that AA is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.44, AA is doing worse than 75.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • AA has a Quick Ratio of 1.44. This is a bad value and indicates that AA is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • With a Quick ratio value of 0.87, AA is not doing good in the industry: 78.75% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.44
Quick Ratio 0.87
AA Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAA Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

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3

3. AA Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • AA shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 293.75%, which is quite impressive.
  • Measured over the past years, AA shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -7.00% on average per year.
  • Looking at the last year, AA shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 7.87% in the last year.
  • Measured over the past years, AA shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 6.68% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)293.75%
EPS 3Y-7%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%21.15%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.87%
Revenue growth 3Y1.01%
Revenue growth 5Y6.68%
Sales Q2Q%-1.06%

3.2 Future

  • Based on estimates for the next years, AA will show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will decrease by -4.67% on average per year.
  • The Revenue is expected to decrease by -3.76% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y52.32%
EPS Next 2Y25.92%
EPS Next 3Y13.03%
EPS Next 5Y-4.67%
Revenue Next Year12.15%
Revenue Next 2Y5.9%
Revenue Next 3Y3.53%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.76%

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
AA Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAA Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 5B 10B 15B
AA Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAA Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 0 2 -2 4 6

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6

4. AA Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • A Price/Earnings ratio of 18.62 indicates a rather expensive valuation of AA.
  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AA is valued cheaply inside the industry as 81.88% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of AA to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.38), we can say AA is valued slightly cheaper.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.22, the valuation of AA can be described as correct.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 74.38% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 38.20. AA is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 18.62
Fwd PE 12.22
AA Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAA Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than 75.63% of the companies in the same industry.
  • AA's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 76.88% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 32.75
EV/EBITDA 10.7
AA Per share dataAA EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30 40

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • AA's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • The decent profitability rating of AA may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • A more expensive valuation may be justified as AA's earnings are expected to grow with 13.03% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.36
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y25.92%
EPS Next 3Y13.03%

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4

5. AA Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • AA has a yearly dividend return of 0.55%, which is pretty low.
  • AA's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 1.09.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.82, AA's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.55%

5.2 History

  • AA has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years4
AA Yearly Dividends per shareAA Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 0 0 0 0

5.3 Sustainability

  • 9.08% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AA. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP9.08%
EPS Next 2Y25.92%
EPS Next 3Y13.03%
AA Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendAA Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500M -500M 1B -1B
AA Dividend Payout.AA Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.AA Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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AA Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

ALCOA CORP

NYSE:AA (4/15/2026, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 70.5 +0.12 (+0.17%)

70.38

-1.46 (-2.03%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)01-22
Earnings (Next)04-16
Inst Owners83.85%
Inst Owner Change0.02%
Ins Owners0.39%
Ins Owner Change0.41%
Market Cap18.57B
Revenue(TTM)12.83B
Net Income(TTM)1.16B
Analysts76.52
Price Target68.82 (-2.22%)
Short Float %2.64%
Short Ratio1.01
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.55%
Yearly Dividend0.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP9.08%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date03-10
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)62.11%
Min EPS beat(2)33.63%
Max EPS beat(2)90.58%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)44.4%
Min EPS beat(4)21.88%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)38.74%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)21.75%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)2%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.68%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.74%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.94%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.74%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.2%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.63%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.82%
PT rev (1m)8.43%
PT rev (3m)51.49%
EPS NQ rev (1m)23.49%
EPS NQ rev (3m)42.07%
EPS NY rev (1m)26.98%
EPS NY rev (3m)38.62%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.29%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.12%
Revenue NY rev (1m)3.83%
Revenue NY rev (3m)5.69%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 18.62
Fwd PE 12.22
P/S 1.45
P/FCF 32.75
P/OCF 15.67
P/B 3.04
P/tB 3.05
EV/EBITDA 10.7
EPS(TTM)3.78
EY5.37%
EPS(NY)5.76
Fwd EY8.18%
FCF(TTM)2.15
FCFY3.05%
OCF(TTM)4.49
OCFY6.38%
SpS48.63
BVpS23.19
TBVpS23.06
PEG (NY)0.36
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.4074 (-36.9%)
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.17%
ROE 18.91%
ROCE 9.95%
ROIC 7.86%
ROICexc 9.03%
ROICexgc 9.05%
OM 9.56%
PM (TTM) 9.02%
GM 16.94%
FCFM 4.42%
ROA(3y)1%
ROA(5y)1%
ROE(3y)1.59%
ROE(5y)2.3%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-5.47%
ROICexgc growth 5Y22.33%
ROICexc growth 3Y-5.04%
ROICexc growth 5Y22.7%
OM growth 3Y-4.94%
OM growth 5Y15.55%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.98%
GM growth 5Y3.61%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.8
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.4
Debt/FCF 4.32
Debt/EBITDA 1.32
Cap/Depr 99.2%
Cap/Sales 4.82%
Interest Coverage 9.59
Cash Conversion 64.05%
Profit Quality 49.01%
Current Ratio 1.44
Quick Ratio 0.87
Altman-Z 2.28
F-Score6
WACC12.82%
ROIC/WACC0.61
Cap/Depr(3y)91.19%
Cap/Depr(5y)82.02%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.36%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)293.75%
EPS 3Y-7%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%21.15%
EPS Next Y52.32%
EPS Next 2Y25.92%
EPS Next 3Y13.03%
EPS Next 5Y-4.67%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.87%
Revenue growth 3Y1.01%
Revenue growth 5Y6.68%
Sales Q2Q%-1.06%
Revenue Next Year12.15%
Revenue Next 2Y5.9%
Revenue Next 3Y3.53%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.76%
EBIT growth 1Y39.91%
EBIT growth 3Y-3.98%
EBIT growth 5Y23.27%
EBIT Next Year114.48%
EBIT Next 3Y28.23%
EBIT Next 5Y2.98%
FCF growth 1Y1250%
FCF growth 3Y18.35%
FCF growth 5Y69.11%
OCF growth 1Y90.51%
OCF growth 3Y12.97%
OCF growth 5Y24.64%

ALCOA CORP / AA Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AA.


What is the valuation status for AA stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


What is the profitability of AA stock?

ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.


What is the financial health of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?

The financial health rating of ALCOA CORP (AA) is 3 / 10.


What is the expected EPS growth for ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ALCOA CORP (AA) is expected to grow by 52.32% in the next year.