ALCOA CORP (AA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:AA - US0138721065 - Common Stock
63.67 USD
+2.58 (+4.22%)
63.68 USD
+0.01 (+0.02%)
AA gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 157 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. AA has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. AA is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AA had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year AA had a positive cash flow from operations.
In multiple years AA reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
AA had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
AA has a better Return On Assets (7.18%) than 80.25% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 18.06%, AA belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 91.72% of the companies in the same industry.
AA has a Return On Invested Capital of 8.70%. This is in the better half of the industry: AA outperforms 73.89% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
AA's Profit Margin of 8.91% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 75.16% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AA has declined.
AA's Operating Margin of 10.77% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 64.97% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of AA has declined.
AA has a Gross Margin (18.41%) which is in line with its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% |
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
AA has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
AA has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
AA has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
AA has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.18 indicates that AA is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
With a Altman-Z score value of 2.18, AA is not doing good in the industry: 66.88% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
AA has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.97. This is a neutral value as AA would need 4.97 years to pay back of all of its debts.
AA has a better Debt to FCF ratio (4.97) than 68.79% of its industry peers.
AA has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.41. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.41, AA is not doing good in the industry: 70.06% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.18 |
ROIC/WACC0.85
WACC10.2%
2.3 Liquidity
AA has a Current Ratio of 1.56. This is a normal value and indicates that AA is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of AA (1.56) is worse than 70.70% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.91 indicates that AA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of AA (0.91) is worse than 73.25% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AA shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 656.25%, which is quite impressive.
The earnings per share for AA have been decreasing by -48.01% on average. This is quite bad
Looking at the last year, AA shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 16.94% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, AA shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 2.66% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 19.17% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
AA is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -0.55% yearly.
EPS Next Y288.16%
EPS Next 2Y108.01%
EPS Next 3Y72.16%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue Next Year7.82%
Revenue Next 2Y6.96%
Revenue Next 3Y5.28%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 17.88 indicates a rather expensive valuation of AA.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, AA is valued cheaper than 90.45% of the companies in the same industry.
AA is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.19, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.33, AA is valued correctly.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 69.43% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.88, AA is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.88 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.33 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AA is valued cheaply inside the industry as 87.90% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of AA indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AA is cheaper than 78.34% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 31.77 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.43 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AA's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
AA's earnings are expected to grow with 72.16% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.06
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y108.01%
EPS Next 3Y72.16%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.75%, AA is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
AA's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 0.99.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.94, AA's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.75% |
5.2 History
AA has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
AA pays out 9.25% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP9.25%
EPS Next 2Y108.01%
EPS Next 3Y72.16%
63.67
+2.58 (+4.22%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners82.31%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap16.49B
Revenue(TTM)12.87B
Net Income(TTM)1.15B
Analysts78.18
Price Target45.43 (-28.65%)
Short Float %2.32%
Short Ratio0.91
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.75% |
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP9.25%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)56.23%
Min EPS beat(2)21.88%
Max EPS beat(2)90.58%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)36.9%
Min EPS beat(4)3.63%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)39.11%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)21.11%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)1.64%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(2)1%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.03%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.37%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.97%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-3.12%
PT rev (1m)12.77%
PT rev (3m)30%
EPS NQ rev (1m)16.56%
EPS NQ rev (3m)97.94%
EPS NY rev (1m)5.27%
EPS NY rev (3m)15.8%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.13%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)5.95%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.28%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.39%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.88 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.33 | ||
| P/S | 1.28 | ||
| P/FCF | 31.77 | ||
| P/OCF | 15.51 | ||
| P/B | 2.6 | ||
| P/tB | 2.67 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.43 |
EPS(TTM)3.56
EY5.59%
EPS(NY)4.15
Fwd EY6.52%
FCF(TTM)2
FCFY3.15%
OCF(TTM)4.1
OCFY6.45%
SpS49.69
BVpS24.5
TBVpS23.81
PEG (NY)0.06
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.3
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.18% | ||
| ROE | 18.06% | ||
| ROCE | 11.01% | ||
| ROIC | 8.7% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.86% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.03% | ||
| OM | 10.77% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.91% | ||
| GM | 18.41% | ||
| FCFM | 4.03% |
ROA(3y)-1.67%
ROA(5y)-0.66%
ROE(3y)-5.52%
ROE(5y)-2.51%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.91%
ROICexgc growth 5Y3.19%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.93%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.18%
OM growth 3Y-24.44%
OM growth 5Y-2.57%
PM growth 3Y-47.72%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.25%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.81
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.97 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.29 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 87.74% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.23% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 52.99% | ||
| Profit Quality | 45.29% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.18 |
F-Score7
WACC10.2%
ROIC/WACC0.85
Cap/Depr(3y)84.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)72.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.15%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)656.25%
EPS 3Y-48.01%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-103.51%
EPS Next Y288.16%
EPS Next 2Y108.01%
EPS Next 3Y72.16%
EPS Next 5Y19.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.94%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.71%
Revenue growth 5Y2.66%
Sales Q2Q%3.13%
Revenue Next Year7.82%
Revenue Next 2Y6.96%
Revenue Next 3Y5.28%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.55%
EBIT growth 1Y377.93%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.98%
EBIT growth 5Y0.02%
EBIT Next Year110.8%
EBIT Next 3Y39.86%
EBIT Next 5Y9.85%
FCF growth 1Y203.18%
FCF growth 3Y-57.05%
FCF growth 5Y-32.82%
OCF growth 1Y9563.64%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-1.94%
ALCOA CORP / AA FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AA.
What is the valuation status of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ALCOA CORP?
ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
Can you provide the financial health for AA stock?
The financial health rating of ALCOA CORP (AA) is 3 / 10.
Can you provide the dividend sustainability for AA stock?
The dividend rating of ALCOA CORP (AA) is 4 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 9.25%.