ALCOA CORP (AA) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:AA • US0138721065

Current stock price

69.895 USD
-1.64 (-2.29%)
Last:

This AA fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

6

1. AA Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year AA was profitable.
  • In the past year AA had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: AA reported negative net income in multiple years.
  • AA had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
AA Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFAA Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1B -1B 2B

1.2 Ratios

  • AA's Return On Assets of 7.17% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 77.71% of its industry peers.
  • AA has a better Return On Equity (18.91%) than 88.53% of its industry peers.
  • The Return On Invested Capital of AA (7.86%) is better than 67.52% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.17%
ROE 18.91%
ROIC 7.86%
ROA(3y)1%
ROA(5y)1%
ROE(3y)1.59%
ROE(5y)2.3%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
AA Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICAA Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 -10 -20

1.3 Margins

  • AA's Profit Margin of 9.02% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AA outperforms 73.25% of its industry peers.
  • Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 9.56%, AA is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 64.33% of the companies in the same industry.
  • AA's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 16.94%, AA is in line with its industry, outperforming 52.23% of the companies in the same industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of AA has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 9.56%
PM (TTM) 9.02%
GM 16.94%
OM growth 3Y-4.94%
OM growth 5Y15.55%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.98%
GM growth 5Y3.61%
AA Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsAA Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 -10 20

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3

2. AA Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AA is destroying value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, AA has more shares outstanding
  • AA has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
  • AA has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
AA Yearly Shares OutstandingAA Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 50M 100M 150M 200M 250M
AA Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsAA Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5B 10B 15B

2.2 Solvency

  • AA has an Altman-Z score of 2.28. This is not the best score and indicates that AA is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • AA has a worse Altman-Z score (2.28) than 65.61% of its industry peers.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of AA is 4.32, which is a neutral value as it means it would take AA, 4.32 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of AA (4.32) is better than 71.34% of its industry peers.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.40 indicates that AA is not too dependend on debt financing.
  • The Debt to Equity ratio of AA (0.40) is worse than 67.52% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.4
Debt/FCF 4.32
Altman-Z 2.28
ROIC/WACC0.61
WACC12.85%
AA Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFAA Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2B 4B 6B

2.3 Liquidity

  • AA has a Current Ratio of 1.44. This is a normal value and indicates that AA is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.44, AA is doing worse than 73.25% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.87 indicates that AA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • AA's Quick ratio of 0.87 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AA is outperformed by 77.71% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.44
Quick Ratio 0.87
AA Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesAA Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

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3

3. AA Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 293.75% over the past year.
  • AA shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -7.00% yearly.
  • Looking at the last year, AA shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 7.87% in the last year.
  • Measured over the past years, AA shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 6.68% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)293.75%
EPS 3Y-7%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%21.15%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.87%
Revenue growth 3Y1.01%
Revenue growth 5Y6.68%
Sales Q2Q%-1.06%

3.2 Future

  • AA is expected to show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will decrease by -4.67% yearly.
  • AA is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -3.76% yearly.
EPS Next Y22.27%
EPS Next 2Y19%
EPS Next 3Y15.04%
EPS Next 5Y-4.67%
Revenue Next Year12.15%
Revenue Next 2Y5.9%
Revenue Next 3Y3.53%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.76%

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
AA Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesAA Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 5B 10B 15B
AA Yearly EPS VS EstimatesAA Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 0 2 -2 4 6

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6

4. AA Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • With a Price/Earnings ratio of 18.49, AA is valued on the expensive side.
  • AA's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. AA is cheaper than 79.62% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.17, AA is valued a bit cheaper.
  • The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 15.12, which indicates a correct valuation of AA.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AA indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: AA is cheaper than 68.15% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • AA is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 23.05, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 18.49
Fwd PE 15.12
AA Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsAA Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than 74.52% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, AA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 76.43% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 32.52
EV/EBITDA 10.66
AA Per share dataAA EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30 40

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • AA's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • The decent profitability rating of AA may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • AA's earnings are expected to grow with 15.04% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.83
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y19%
EPS Next 3Y15.04%

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4

5. AA Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • With a yearly dividend of 0.68%, AA is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
  • AA's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 1.16.
  • With a Dividend Yield of 0.68, AA pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 1.89.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.68%

5.2 History

  • AA has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • AA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years4
AA Yearly Dividends per shareAA Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 0 0 0 0

5.3 Sustainability

  • 9.08% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AA. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP9.08%
EPS Next 2Y19%
EPS Next 3Y15.04%
AA Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendAA Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500M -500M 1B -1B
AA Dividend Payout.AA Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.AA Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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AA Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

ALCOA CORP

NYSE:AA (4/6/2026, 12:13:07 PM)

69.895

-1.64 (-2.29%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)01-22
Earnings (Next)04-16
Inst Owners84.1%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.39%
Ins Owner Change0.41%
Market Cap18.44B
Revenue(TTM)12.83B
Net Income(TTM)1.16B
Analysts76.52
Price Target68.29 (-2.3%)
Short Float %3.28%
Short Ratio1.17
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.68%
Yearly Dividend0.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP9.08%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date03-10
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)62.11%
Min EPS beat(2)33.63%
Max EPS beat(2)90.58%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)44.4%
Min EPS beat(4)21.88%
Max EPS beat(4)90.58%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)38.74%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)21.75%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)2%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.68%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.1%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.74%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.94%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.74%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.2%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.63%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.82%
PT rev (1m)7.6%
PT rev (3m)50.32%
EPS NQ rev (1m)23.49%
EPS NQ rev (3m)42.07%
EPS NY rev (1m)1.93%
EPS NY rev (3m)11.27%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.29%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.12%
Revenue NY rev (1m)3.83%
Revenue NY rev (3m)5.69%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 18.49
Fwd PE 15.12
P/S 1.44
P/FCF 32.52
P/OCF 15.56
P/B 3.01
P/tB 3.03
EV/EBITDA 10.66
EPS(TTM)3.78
EY5.41%
EPS(NY)4.62
Fwd EY6.61%
FCF(TTM)2.15
FCFY3.07%
OCF(TTM)4.49
OCFY6.43%
SpS48.63
BVpS23.19
TBVpS23.06
PEG (NY)0.83
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number44.41
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.17%
ROE 18.91%
ROCE 9.95%
ROIC 7.86%
ROICexc 9.03%
ROICexgc 9.05%
OM 9.56%
PM (TTM) 9.02%
GM 16.94%
FCFM 4.42%
ROA(3y)1%
ROA(5y)1%
ROE(3y)1.59%
ROE(5y)2.3%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y-5.47%
ROICexgc growth 5Y22.33%
ROICexc growth 3Y-5.04%
ROICexc growth 5Y22.7%
OM growth 3Y-4.94%
OM growth 5Y15.55%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.98%
GM growth 5Y3.61%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.8
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.4
Debt/FCF 4.32
Debt/EBITDA 1.32
Cap/Depr 99.2%
Cap/Sales 4.82%
Interest Coverage 9.59
Cash Conversion 64.05%
Profit Quality 49.01%
Current Ratio 1.44
Quick Ratio 0.87
Altman-Z 2.28
F-Score6
WACC12.85%
ROIC/WACC0.61
Cap/Depr(3y)91.19%
Cap/Depr(5y)82.02%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.36%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)293.75%
EPS 3Y-7%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%21.15%
EPS Next Y22.27%
EPS Next 2Y19%
EPS Next 3Y15.04%
EPS Next 5Y-4.67%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.87%
Revenue growth 3Y1.01%
Revenue growth 5Y6.68%
Sales Q2Q%-1.06%
Revenue Next Year12.15%
Revenue Next 2Y5.9%
Revenue Next 3Y3.53%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.76%
EBIT growth 1Y39.91%
EBIT growth 3Y-3.98%
EBIT growth 5Y23.27%
EBIT Next Year88.81%
EBIT Next 3Y28.6%
EBIT Next 5Y2.98%
FCF growth 1Y1250%
FCF growth 3Y18.35%
FCF growth 5Y69.11%
OCF growth 1Y90.51%
OCF growth 3Y12.97%
OCF growth 5Y24.64%

ALCOA CORP / AA Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for ALCOA CORP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to AA.


What is the valuation status for AA stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to ALCOA CORP (AA). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


What is the profitability of AA stock?

ALCOA CORP (AA) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.


What is the financial health of ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?

The financial health rating of ALCOA CORP (AA) is 3 / 10.


What is the expected EPS growth for ALCOA CORP (AA) stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ALCOA CORP (AA) is expected to grow by 22.27% in the next year.