Market Monitor March 14 ( Intel, Dollar General UP, Adobe, Meta DOWN)

Wall Street Surges Despite Persistent Economic Concerns

U.S. stock markets experienced significant gains on Friday, marking their best trading day of the year despite ongoing concerns over inflation, consumer sentiment, and geopolitical tensions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.7%, the Nasdaq climbed 2.6%, and the S&P 500 gained 2.1%. For both the Nasdaq and S&P 500, this was the best trading session since November 6, when markets celebrated Donald Trump's electoral victory.

Nevertheless, on a weekly basis, the major indices recorded substantial losses, with the S&P 500 down over 2%, marking its fourth consecutive weekly decline - the longest losing streak since August. Previously, Wall Street had entered correction territory, declining more than 10% from recent highs in just 16 trading sessions.

Investor confidence remains volatile, partly driven by uncertainty regarding U.S. tariff policies under President Trump, as evidenced by a notable drop in consumer confidence measured by the University of Michigan. This report showed inflation fears at their highest level in 32 years, with significant monthly increases in both short-term and long-term inflation expectations (rising to 4.9% and 3.9% respectively). The high degree of policy uncertainty and economic volatility continues to weigh on consumers' planning capabilities, noted Joanne Hsu of the University of Michigan.

Friday's gains were buoyed by optimism surrounding technology stocks. Nvidia (NVDA | +5.27%) notably rose approximately 5%, driven by anticipation for its annual GTC developers' conference focusing on AI technologies, particularly CEO Jensen Huang's keynote presentation.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR | +8.31%) also recovered 8%, reversing part of its recent losses due to valuation and defense budget concerns.

Ulta Beauty (ULTA | +13.68%) surged over 13% after better-than-expected quarterly results, despite conservative future revenue forecasts, prompting analysts to believe the company aimed for cautious guidance.

Additionally, a resolution to prevent a U.S. government shutdown provided further relief, with Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer acknowledging the drawbacks of the stopgap funding measure but emphasizing its necessity. Despite this temporary reprieve, analysts remain wary of the broader implications of the U.S. trade strategy and potential global economic impacts, particularly related to ongoing tensions with trading partners.

In commodities, gold prices briefly surpassed $3,000 per troy ounce for the first time, driven by concerns about prolonged trade conflicts potentially causing inflation and economic slowdowns. Analysts from ING and Commerzbank highlighted growing investor expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts amid weaker-than-anticipated inflation data, although caution remains advised given ongoing market uncertainties.

On the corporate front, Tesla (TSLA | +3.86%) gained 3.5%, despite concerns expressed to the White House about potential higher manufacturing costs due to tariffs.

Chinese electric vehicle maker Li Auto (LI | -4.39%) fell 3.3% following disappointing revenue forecasts, despite solid quarterly results.

DocuSign (DOCU | +14.81%) soared over 16% on strong earnings reports, while Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI | +39.32%) dramatically increased by 39% following a warrant issuance to Amazon, enabling significant future share purchases.

Investors are now focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting next Wednesday, with the central bank expected to hold interest rates steady despite elevated inflation pressures. Economists anticipate no rate cuts until at least September as the Fed maintains a cautious stance amid persistent economic risks.

Daily Market Analysis – March 14, 2025 (After Market Close)

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Down (no change)
• Long-Term Trend: Neutral (no change)

Key Technical Levels:

• Next Resistance: Around 575
• Next Support: Around 550-560 (bullish weekly doji candle)

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Down (no change)
• Long-Term Trend: Neutral (no change)

Key Technical Levels:

• Resistance: Around 500
• Support: Around 445 (potential bounce area)

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Down (no change)
• Long-Term Trend: Down (no change)

Key Technical Levels:

• Resistance: Around 215
• Support: Around 195-200 (bullish weekly doji candle)

Sector Analysis

'Materials' confirms its strong position. The sector ranked in the top 3 last week and now even takes first place with a weekly close of nearly +2%. The sector is also climbing the rankings on a 1-month and 3-month basis.

Dropping out of the top 3 compared to last week are 'Health Care' (-1.13%) and 'Consumer Staple's, which experienced a significant decline, losing almost 4% on a weekly basis.

The new sectors completing the top 3 this week are 'Energy' (+1.57%), which was last week's worst-performing sector, and 'Utilities' (+1.41%), moving up from fifth to third place. 'Utilities' currently ranks number 1 as the best-performing sector over both 1-month and 3-month periods.

Market Breadth Analysis for March 14, 2025

The data suggests a significant bullish turnaround from a heavily bearish start to the week. On Monday, March 10, the market saw strong selling pressure with 80.9% of stocks declining, but by Friday, March 14, the market had completely reversed with 79.5% of stocks advancing.

Despite this positive shift, the percentage of stocks trading above key moving averages remains relatively low, implying that the market may need further confirmation to sustain an uptrend. However, the decline in the number of stocks making new lows and the increase in stocks gaining over 4% suggest improving conditions.

If this momentum continues, we could see more stocks reclaiming key moving averages and stronger follow-through in the coming sessions.